OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET & ECONOMY THREAD VOL. SCHOOL'S OUT

[freakydestroyer]

Originally Posted by bruce negro

Originally Posted by freakydestroyer

Originally Posted by bruce negro

http://www.cbsnews.com/83...estment-is-a-losing-bet/

http://www.cbsnews.com/83...-management-fails-again/

http://www.cbsnews.com/83...ing-is-gaining-momentum/

His credentials speak for themselves. The concept of actually being able to time the market is a fallacy. Momentum swings in the market faster than an NCAA basketball game.

You posted 3 articles by the same guy. I skimmed through some of it. It's clear that he has a bias against any style of investing other than his own. I actually think he has an ulterior motive, he probably just wants to tell his investors in his Asset Management group "It's okay we're down 10% right now, but in the long run it will fix itself and we will be up". But hey if his strategy works for him and he sleeps well at night good for him. You mean to tell me that the Market Leaders like AAPL, CMG, PCLN were not bought up by institutions over their big runs? I mean look at the volume, it happened gradually. It didn't happen overnight. Sudden swings happen with penny stocks.

..........Look up Larry Swedroe. And this isn't a new idea, have you not heard of the Wall Street Journal Dartboard contest? I'm also saying that betting on momentum is similar to bottom-feeding--you WILL get burned. Priceline, Chipotle and Apple are doing well because they're solid corporations, so it would be best to invest in them because they are solid, not because there's a bit of momentum with them. Anyways, I can give you a million other articles giving you the same details, but to cut through all of the bull, actively predicting the market to produce consistent gains does not work. End of story.

A lot of people have this misconception about trend following. Trends do no start or end overnight. It is a gradual process. Don't think of it as the classic "pump and dump". I like to look at strong stocks when they are at their strongest. PCLN, CMG, and AAPL are some examples of such stocks. They've had monster runs because institutions have stepped in, then buyers, and more buyers. When they start to break down there will be clear signs of weakness before they go into free fall, which leaves ample time to make an exit. You can probably also find a billion articles telling people to not partake in the stock market at all. Oh it's too risk just throw your money into a savings account to compound over X amount of years. I'm not too fond of holding anything for years and rolling with losses during downtrends and corrections nor am I trying to hit a home run and get 5000% returns overnight. But I do not dismiss either of those strategies, because it might work for someone.

 

[dajoka004]

Originally Posted by secretzofwar

Momentum vs value vs swing vs bottom feeding... they're all trading strategies. There are some VERY good momo/swing traders, but I'd recommend most people are better off investing in solid companies.

The hardest part for retail investors is finding good research to supplement your own. I worked in equity research and found the quality of analyst to vary GREATLY within the same firms. And hidden beneath layers of garbage, there actually is SOME good free stuff on Seeking Alpha.

I love Seeking Alpha. Mostly for the LOLs, but there are some real gems on there too. 
I use Fidelity for almost all my research. 

 

[freakydestroyer]

Originally Posted by iBlink

Originally Posted by DaJoka004

Originally Posted by iBlink

Looking to flip it to a make a decent profit, then invest again. Then repeat said process.

So you're looking to gain free capital right now? How short term are we talking about? A day, a week, two weeks?

2 weeks

Don't expect magic in 2 weeks, but... buy LNKD. Baring a correction, this thing will climb IMO. As I've said before a few times, LNKD will get really interesting when Facebooks IPOs, but the time to buy is now. I also like TSLA and think it still has legs, credit goes to finnns2003 for that one.

 

[bjm5295]

anyone have any thoughts on Millennium Media's IPO tomorrow?

 

[bruce negro]

Originally Posted by freakydestroyer

Originally Posted by bruce negro

Originally Posted by freakydestroyer

You posted 3 articles by the same guy. I skimmed through some of it. It's clear that he has a bias against any style of investing other than his own. I actually think he has an ulterior motive, he probably just wants to tell his investors in his Asset Management group "It's okay we're down 10% right now, but in the long run it will fix itself and we will be up". But hey if his strategy works for him and he sleeps well at night good for him. You mean to tell me that the Market Leaders like AAPL, CMG, PCLN were not bought up by institutions over their big runs? I mean look at the volume, it happened gradually. It didn't happen overnight. Sudden swings happen with penny stocks.

..........Look up Larry Swedroe. And this isn't a new idea, have you not heard of the Wall Street Journal Dartboard contest? I'm also saying that betting on momentum is similar to bottom-feeding--you WILL get burned. Priceline, Chipotle and Apple are doing well because they're solid corporations, so it would be best to invest in them because they are solid, not because there's a bit of momentum with them. Anyways, I can give you a million other articles giving you the same details, but to cut through all of the bull, actively predicting the market to produce consistent gains does not work. End of story.

A lot of people have this misconception about trend following. Trends do no start or end overnight. It is a gradual process. Don't think of it as the classic "pump and dump". I like to look at strong stocks when they are at their strongest. PCLN, CMG, and AAPL are some examples of such stocks. They've had monster runs because institutions have stepped in, then buyers, and more buyers. When they start to break down there will be clear signs of weakness before they go into free fall, which leaves ample time to make an exit. You can probably also find a billion articles telling people to not partake in the stock market at all. Oh it's too risk just throw your money into a savings account to compound over X amount of years. I'm not too fond of holding anything for years and rolling with losses during downtrends and corrections nor am I trying to hit a home run and get 5000% returns overnight. But I do not dismiss either of those strategies, because it might work for someone.

Isn't looking at strong stocks while they're at their strongest more of an evaluation of the company itself rather than the momentum behind them? I think what myself and some others are trying to say is that evaluating the company itself rather than waiting for momentum may be a better practice anyways, because if you find a solid company and invest, the momentum may pick up later. More times than not, momentum is created because Wall Street and all of your favorite research sites have found a solid pick, invested a good chunk of cash, and are now pushing the stock on everyone else so that the price will be pushed up and they can reap their capital gains

 Betting on solid companies rather than momentum is a bit more advantageous IMO, given the inherit risks of investing anyways, and playing ANYTHING in the stock market, no matter how you play it, is better than a savings account with a .9% APY
At the very least, I think it'd help a lot of us to look a bit more into diversification and why it works. Just because you may not have enough capital to do hedge fund level diversification does not mean that you can't apply many of those principles to only equities. 

 

[crazy dav0]

another pull back today ...

 

[johnnyredstorm]

And another monster IPO.

 

[c hanna]

just finished with a management class and we had a couple lectures on stocks that got me interested. Will start small and do a lot of research but what do you guys think about buying apple right now? Worth it or not?

 

[finnns2003]

Originally Posted by JohnnyRedStorm

And another monster IPO.

Foul. At least mention what IPO

 

[nocomment6]

Any specific dates for facebook IPO?

Do you guys think I should hold on to BAC stocks a bit more or switch to LNKD, which looks great and yeah if FB goes public...

 

[azndood21]

cmon BAC, get to 10 already!

 

[nocomment6]

Originally Posted by Azndood21

cmon BAC, get to 10 already!

Thats what I would be waiting for, but honestly markets are surprisingly bearish...

 

[johnnyredstorm]

I'd say if you have the money, hold onto your BAC and buy some LNKD on a pullback but if you've made some decent money on B of A already, then I guess you cash out and get back in later on. I personally am long BAC until it gets up to that 15-20 range, and even then I may holdout for more gains if it looks like its finally turned the corner and those Countrywide issues are cleared up.

My fault on not naming the IPO

Millennium Media MM I think they priced at 12 or 15 and came public at 26, currently at 24.

MS is bothering me today. Took me out of the money and into the red

 

[bjm5295]

Originally Posted by finnns2003

Originally Posted by JohnnyRedStorm

And another monster IPO.

Foul. At least mention what IPO

Millenial Media, IPO'd at $13, came public at $25. bought a few, and i mean a FEW shares.

been hovering around 25 all day but made it to 27.80 i believe.

 

[freakydestroyer]

If tomorrow is a distribution day, this party might be over.
But good news is a lot of the leaders are down, but on very low volume.

For those who are thinking about LNKD, the fact that it is not down today is an great sign. It means those who are holding it are not willing to let it go down.

 

[azndood21]

Damn you PURE !!! bought in at $1 and it's down to .26 !! I'd rather watch them go bankrupt than sell at this point but I hate seeing red from them all the time (today's an exception)

 

[azndood21]

For those of you that have more experience & are in BAC for the long haul: would you hold on, buy more and why?

 

[freakydestroyer]

I warned you guys to keep raising your stops with BAC. I would be out when it drops below 9.50. If it looks like it can run again, which is very possible I can always get back in.

 

[lilchico4life]

Nice to see this thread kickin again. I'll keep my eye on it and post some picks with potential.

 

[freakydestroyer]

Originally Posted by LiLcHiCo4LiFe

Nice to see this thread kickin again. I'll keep my eye on it and post some picks with potential.

Welcome back!

 

[chiang2k6]

sell BAC now and rebuy it a little later, it is going to continue dropping for the next month or so IMO. 

 

[finnns2003]

Ahh I see that IPO today. Damn, big jump. But you'd have to have a pretty big pot to get in on that right?

 

[johnnyredstorm]

What are your sentiments on Nike? Higher or lower in the near future? Was thinking about maybe picking up an out of the money call (either 115 or 120) for April 21st, although I've seen a couple of yous put a $95 price target on it.

 

[dajoka004]

Too many of you are looking to make a quick buck. You're going to get hurt, especially in this market. I probably have more experience(3 years) than almost all of you, and I don't feel comfortable at all trading such volatile and speculative stocks. To each his own though.

 

[frankmatthews]

Originally Posted by freakydestroyer

If tomorrow is a distribution day, this party might be over.
But good news is a lot of the leaders are down, but on very low volume.

For those who are thinking about LNKD, the fact that it is not down today is an great sign. It means those who are holding it are not willing to let it go down.

I'm thinking we hit a short term bottom today and we will continue rising tomorrow and in to next week, the indexes rebounded nicely off support today.  I would be buying here if I hadn't already gotten trigger happy last friday.  But I agree, if we sell off tomorrow or early next week it could be a pretty significant correction. Compare a chart of SPX or DJI this time last year to right now.