Official Stock Market & Economy Thread

[nicefro]

Close at 9,034.

 

[dey know yayo]

Made big purchases in SRS and TBT today...

 

[cjmoney]

Originally Posted by reigndrop

Originally Posted by CjMoney

Your boy is now a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder. Picked up a few A shares. No I'm kidding, just 1 B share at $3015. Perfect time to get in, its cheap and I really want to go to the shareholders meeting before the old man croaks. I wouldn't be suprised if it was 3500+ by may which would pay for my trip there pretty much. I'm probably driving from Chicago, any other NT shareholders should hit me up and say hello and maybe come party that weekend.

I doubt it'll be at 3500. BK has a too much of their capital stuck in stocks that aren't going to do anything, and asset prices aren't going anywhere. Berkshire ain't going to make that much off of insurance premiums either because of falling asset prices.

$180 bucks to go, I've already made 10% paper gains in a few days...No way I'm selling under 4k though...


and to whoever asked, yes you can go to the meeting with just one B share...

 

[nicefro]

Originally Posted by CjMoney

Originally Posted by reigndrop

Originally Posted by CjMoney

Your boy is now a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder. Picked up a few A shares. No I'm kidding, just 1 B share at $3015. Perfect time to get in, its cheap and I really want to go to the shareholders meeting before the old man croaks. I wouldn't be suprised if it was 3500+ by may which would pay for my trip there pretty much. I'm probably driving from Chicago, any other NT shareholders should hit me up and say hello and maybe come party that weekend.

I doubt it'll be at 3500. BK has a too much of their capital stuck in stocks that aren't going to do anything, and asset prices aren't going anywhere. Berkshire ain't going to make that much off of insurance premiums either because of falling asset prices.

$180 bucks to go, I've already made 10% paper gains in a few days...No way I'm selling under 4k though...


and to whoever asked, yes you can go to the meeting with just one B share...

Set a tight stop.

 

[dey know yayo]

In my opinion...

Best longs here: EBS, AIPC, FAZ, SRS, SKF, ANV, RGLD, GLD, IAG, JAG, GOLD, ABK, MAXY, FNF, ACM, AUY, NEM, AUY, CSKI, HANS, DROOY, LZR, TSYS, TBT

Best shorts here: SPG, VNO, BXP, O, SHLD, PRU, MS, GS, BAC, JPM, URE, APOL

PS HERE COMES THE END OF THE TREASURY BUBBLE AND THE BEGINNING OF THE GOLD BULL.

 

[dey know yayo]

mean sell off in eur/usd after an even meaner surge. watch for a bounce off its 50dma

 

[vjetti]

My first post..been lurking for a while just been interested in some of your ideas, Dey Know. I've been waiting to put cash back into the market after losing big in '08.

Your saying go long EBS? It's already up 83% in the past 3 months. Browsing their first news piece..they have a vaccine for anthrax?..Are you thinking that product will have crazy demand once it's in the market?

I was really looking into buying SRS last week. A lot of people are getting in on this trade, more than a few random investors I know. But what can you really expect from it? Seems so volatile, another huge pop in Jan/Feb similar to the one in November? It's just hard to understand, considering it really has no correlation with the Real Estate ETF that it is supposed to be the inverse of. In fact all of these Ultrashort Financial ETFs act really crazy. If you think the Dow is going to fall all the way to 5k or so, aren't you a fan of DXD as well?

Think I read in one of your other posts about oil..you really think it'll keep falling? Looking at the OIL ETF, looks like it'll keep going up, imo gas prices are too low right now.
Let me know what you think dude..you got some worthwhile opinions

 

[dey know yayo]

vjetti- EBS's main customer is the US government. they're not suffering any demand destruction. the gov't doesn't get poorer. srs is great forshort-term trades, but not investing. it's erratic and insane. as commercial real estate fails, however, this will probably the best way to profit from it.i don't think the dow falls to 5k for a while, DXD might be a good play eventually, but there are tons of more profitable plays right now. and i didn'tsay i think oil will keep falling, i've been saying it's probably bottomed since the 31st.

 

[heyson]

Where are the best places to start a portfolio?

 

[nicefro]

don't bother with etrade unless you're moving large amounts. don't ask me how i know.

 

[heyson]

^So any other suggestions?

 

[reigndrop]

Originally Posted by heyson

^So any other suggestions?

ThinkorSwim, they're solid

 

[heyson]

Thanks man

 

[dey know yayo]

Here are a few more very bearish-looking stocks that should go down a lot more in coming weeks:
- HBC
- GOOG
- BIDU
- JPM
- SHLD
- BOH
- STRA
- APOL
- CELG
- SPTN

 

[dey know yayo]

just shorted $11 million worth of AUD/USD at average price 0.72119. i'm expecting a big move down soon, as the market is extremely overbought and bettingwith the US dollar is a good way to play asset price deflation and deleveraging. the euro has been showing some relative strength lately that the australiandollar hasn't matched so I expect the aussie dollar to go down back below 0.70 soon. keep in mind this is a short term play that I won't hold for morethan a few weeks. my long-term prospect on the US dollar is very bearish.

 

[vjetti]

Any suggestions on where to open a new brokerage account as a small investor (<$10K) ? I only did mutualfunds before (didn't work out so well..) and am finally taking the plunge into buying stocks/ETFs myself. E-trade looks pretty sweet because you can getfree trades for the first month instead of paying $12 a trade.

 

[dey know yayo]

I'm up over $100,000 on my currency trade I posted in this thread this morning. AUD/USD is around .70600

 

[dan3429]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo


In my opinion...

Best longs here: EBS, AIPC, FAZ, SRS, SKF, ANV, RGLD, GLD, IAG, JAG, GOLD, ABK, MAXY, FNF, ACM, AUY, NEM, AUY, CSKI, HANS, DROOY, LZR, TSYS, TBT

Best shorts here: SPG, VNO, BXP, O, SHLD, PRU, MS, GS, BAC, JPM, URE, APOL

PS HERE COMES THE END OF THE TREASURY BUBBLE AND THE BEGINNING OF THE GOLD BULL.

looks like you employ a lot of technical analysis.... as an aside i think there are weaker REITS than the ones you have mentioned + also its pretty hard toborrow shares in shld, short interest represents a fair % of the float

 

[dey know yayo]

technical analysis is vital for timing. and most of those stocks, if i play them it's probably with options. i don't like shorting, asymmetry oflosses.

and ps scratch that, i'm up 155k and counting on the AUD/USD play I posted in this thread easrly this morning.

 

[dan3429]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

technical analysis is vital for timing. and most of those stocks, if i play them it's probably with options. i don't like shorting, asymmetry of losses.

and ps scratch that, i'm up 155k and counting on the AUD/USD play I posted in this thread easrly this morning.

i wasn't saying that the technicals we're not important, i was just simply making the observation that of the stocks listed most look very good from atechnical stand point...i focus more on fundamentals, but certainly recognize the value of tech-analysis

 

[dey know yayo]

word, i employ a combination, both are vital- fundamentals for direction and strengthn, technicals for timing and targeting.

oil distributed heavily today at its 50dma, it may not have bottomed yet. LDK looks like a potential short candidate here if its sell off can pick up somevolume, it is also being distributed at its 50dma. SPG BXP and a lot of other REITs distributed heavily today at their 50dma's, i think theyre about tocollapse hard, look for froday and monday to be huge down days for them and the whole market.

my favorite play in teh world here is to buy SHLD puts. sears is a garbage company that is being distributed on heavy volume at its 50dma in the middel of asymmetrical triangle I expect it to break down from. Jan35Puts are 0.85, which are a GREAT buy. I expect Sears to be at 30 and below in a few weeks.

 

[dey know yayo]

JPM is toast... prolly going to low 20s from here.
HBC looks like a good short to high 30s.
APOL looks ready for a big sell off soon.
BOH may undercut lows soon, it's down big since I called for it to go down.
POT and X may be triple topping, I don't expect them to be breaking out of head & shoulders at this market state... look to see if they hold their50dmas, if they break down, short.

if anyone wants me to give a quick analysis of a stock, feel free to list it.

 

[dey know yayo]

the yen is showing strength here. aud/jpy might be a more profitable, but riskier, short than aud/usd

 

[truth 15]

Dey Know Yayo-

I am very impressed with how much you know at such a young age. I am 20 years old and I can tell you that you know more about this stuff then many"wealthy" people I know. You must have done a lot of research and spend a lot of time reading and learning and that is awesome.

I was wondering what books you read or what sites you used to learn how to do technical analysis and read graphs. If you could tell me where to look or what toread that would be great.

When you talk about shorting a stock or going long, are you referring to options? My account with TD ameritrade is not a margin or option account, juststraight stocks. If I could short stocks or "long" a stock without having a margin account let me know.

Some stocks I am looking at are MO, TCK, FCX, AIG, SIG, CHK, TQNT, GG, SLW, PFE, V, WFC, X, SCHN, JOYG, FRO, and DO.

Sorry for the list of stocks but I would really appreciate you input. My basic strategy is to buy stocks that are undervalued and sell them once they give me adecent return using market volatility and fundamental analysis. Thanks

 

[jcash da kid]

Dey Know Yayo Don't flame me if it's already been posted but what's your current portfolio look like? How many longs do you currently own?