to calculate the shear load of the bolt, you simply multiply the dia of the bolt by the length of engagement into the material (be it a housing or a nut). This gives you the area of the thread under load. If a bolt (or screw) is to shear, it will fail across the thread.
Just use this area in the general equation:
in your case, just assume the load is acting across the cross section of the root of the thread, and devide the load by that area.
The max shear loads can be found in the back of most bolt/screw producers catalogues.
Just got to use the Torque (max motor output) = Force x Radius(of the gear orsprocket).....to determine the Force....assume it is in the X direction, because, like said above, that would be the manor in which the bolt would fail
then just apply this equation to get your answer and compare to the max of the bolt you areusing.....
IMO tho, Zinc is not strong at all....why aren't you guys using Steel or at least Aluminum?
*edit: there is much more to solving this....however, I cant find my textbook that goes into material strength