THEE OFFICIAL 2010-2011 MIAMI HEAT PLAYOFFS THREAD : CONGRATS MAVS FANS

[kc24688]

I got my ticket to game 1 of the first with my mom and second round with my boy! LETS GO HEAT!!

 

[mr2cool80]

It's about that time fellas ........ 
MIAMI HEAT WHITE HOT PLAYOFF TIME

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Can't wait to get back home for these games ... This Saturday game unfortunately offset my weekend plan to head down there  

. I thought it would be on a Sunday so I won't be able to go to the game but I may end up eventually going sometime during the week!!! LETS GO FUEGO!

 

[h3at23]

This man makes me scratch my head as much as anyone but for atleast 1 day, he's good in my book:

[h1]Heat vs. Lakers in the NBA Finals?[/h1]

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ESPN.com

Issac Baldizon/NBAE/Getty ImagesWill Dwyane Wade and the Heat keep Kobe Bryant and the Lakers from a third straight NBA title?

I've broken it all down, and after further consideration and careful review of the bracket, I've decided it will be at least one more year before I get a Hawks-Blazers Finals.

The rest of my picks? They're just around the corner. Since I know this preamble is just, well, preamble, and that you're really here to see who I'm picking, I'll cut right to it. I spoke a lot about some of the factors behind these picks Thursday in the Harbingers and you'll see reference to them here; with each series, you'll also see who the AccuScore Predictor favors and how the season series went.
[h3]FIRST ROUND[/h3]
EAST

(2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia

Season series: 3-0 Miami
AccuScore says: 76% Heat

I won't dwell on this one too long; suffice it to say that Philly looks overmatched even with a healthy Lou Williams, and we're not sure if he can go. The Sixers' main advantage is that they can throw an ace defender at LeBron James in Andre Iguodala, but Jodie Meeks and Williams will be completely overmatched against Dwyane Wade; don't be surprised if Jrue Holiday is on Wade for big chunks of time. Philly can also get away with playing bench ace Thaddeus Young for extended chunks as a 4, a lineup the Sixers have used to devastating effect this season.

With all that said, the Sixers already have won the jackpot just by getting here, and if they win Game 3 at home the season will be a huge success. They'll get that done, but not anything more. Pick: Heat in 5

(1) Chicago vs. (

Indiana

Season series: 3-1 Chicago
AccuScore says: 91% Bulls

Obviously, there is a huge disparity in talent here, but I have two reasons to think Indy might make this quasi-competitive. First, the Pacers' offense matches up well against the Bulls' defense -- teams that like to drive, kick, swing the ball and shoot from outside do the best against Tom Thibodeau's strongside blitzing schemes. Second, Indy has had one lineup this year that's been devastating -- the Darren Collison-Mike Dunleavy-Danny Granger-Josh McRoberts-Roy Hibbert unit has a plus-8.15 adjusted plus-minus -- and that's likely the quintet it'll be rolling with in this series. Because of that, I think the Pacers will steal a game somewhere along the way, but they're just prolonging the agony. Pick: Bulls in 5

(4) Orlando vs. (5) Atlanta

Season series: 3-1 Atlanta
AccuScore says: 89% Magic

This is a fascinating case of matchups being an overriding concern. Based strictly on season results, Orlando should sweep Atlanta. The Hawks won 44 games but gave up more points than they scored; in terms of point differential they were no better than the 35-win Bucks. Atlanta also lost its final six games and appeared to treat new coach Larry Drew as a substitute teacher, with Josh Smith blithely ignoring requests to quit shooting jumpers with 18 on the shot clock.

But the one thing the Hawks have going for them is that they can defend Dwight Howard. This is has been the biggest variable in every previous Orlando series -- teams that can single cover Howard effectively win, and those that can't lose. The Hawks, with low-post defensive ace Jason Collins and physical backup Zaza Pachulia, defended Howard very effectively in their four regular-season meetings, enabling them to win the series despite fairly anemic offense of their own.

I expect this to be a low-scoring series, and I expect it will drag on for a while. (Also, I expect Hubie Brown to mispronounce "Pachulia" at least 17 times). The Hawks have been so bad since Christmas that I can't pick them to win, but they'll make it interesting. Pick: Magic in 7

(3) Boston vs. (6) New York

Season series: 4-0 Boston
AccuScore says: 76% Celtics

Everyone is excited about this series because it's Boston and New York, but I'm not sure it will live up to the hype on the court. Boston struggled down the stretch, but it was mostly because of a bench unit that will be a bystander in this series. The Celtics' four All-Star starters, regardless of the center with which they're paired (or non-center, in Jeff Green's case), have been a devastating combination statistically, but Boston has really struggled when Rajon Rondo checks out. He'll be checking out a lot less in this series.

As for the 'Bockers, they'll be able to score some, but defensively they were so bad after the Carmelo Anthony trade that it's tough to muster much enthusiasm for a deep playoff run. Amare and Melo will shoot them to victory at least once and maybe twice, but they won't do it four times. If there's any doubt about that, refer to that rule of thumb -- teams that have home-court advantage against their first-round opponent and also won the season series virtually never lose. Pick: Celtics in 5

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WEST

(1) San Antonio vs. (

Memphis

Season series: 2-2
AccuScore says: 82% Spurs

The amazing thing about this series is how utterly devoid of value the four regular-season meetings are for the purposes of projecting the playoffs. San Antonio lost to Memphis twice, but once without Tim Duncan and once without Tony Parker; the two Spurs victories, meanwhile, were both at home and hardly resounding (one went to OT).

The relevant stat for Memphis is what it's done since Rudy Gay went out -- with Tony Allen starting and the Griz no longer watering down their rotation with assorted Thabeets and Henrys, Memphis went 15-8 prior to tanking the final two games, with a scoring margin of plus-5.2 points per game.

In other words, this is not your typical No. 8 seed. Memphis is deep, defends, has two low-post weapons and a world-class wing stopper. And with Manu Ginobili hurting, suddenly this looks like a difficult series for the Spurs.

I wouldn't be surprised if they lost the opener, with Ginobili either sitting out or limited, but I'd still be surprised if they lost the entire series. The Spurs aren't playing as well as they were at midseason but between home-court advantage and Memphis' copious lack of perimeter shooting, they still should be able to hold off the challenge. Pick: Spurs in 6

(3) Dallas vs. (6) Portland

Season series: 2-2
AccuScore says: 67% Mavs

Meet the most disrespected 57-win team in nearly two decades, the Dallas Mavericks. The only team I can recall that won as much and was as readily dismissed by the public was the 1993-94 Atlanta Hawks, who won 57 games before being brushed aside by the Pacers in Round 2 of the playoffs. Of course, those Hawks also planted the seeds of their own demise by offending the karma gods with the shameful Dominique Wilkins-Danny Manning trade at midseason; the Mavs, thankfully, continue to employ Dirk Nowitzki.

It's the other players Dallas uses that may be the problem. With Caron Butler injured and Rodrigue Beaubois possibly also missing the series, the Mavs come in at less than full strength. (And, by the way, what's up with Jason Terry? In the past two weeks he took a cheap shot at Steve Blake, got in a fight on his own bench and celebrated a missed free throw because he didn't know the score.)

On paper, this is about as close to a toss-up as you can get. Dallas is ninth in the Power Rankings, Portland is 10th. They split the season series, with a differential of three points in favor of the Blazers.

However, focusing on the players they'll actually field in this series, I give a slight edge to the Blazers. Portland's lineups with Gerald Wallace in them have all been lights out, in terms of adjusted plus-minus (hat tip to basketballvalue.com), while the Blazers' overall numbers are dragged down by players like Joel Przybilla, Armon Johnson, Sean Marks and Chris Johnson who won't be participating in this series. The two concerns for Portland are backup point guard, where Patty Mills has been barely adequate and may be left out of the rotation in favor of Brandon Roy or Rudy Fernandez, and Marcus Camby, who has seemed less than spry since midseason.

The key for Dallas will be limiting the vulnerability of its small guards on defense. Dallas plays a lot of zone and the Blazers can't shoot (21st in 3-point percentage at 34.5 percent), so that's the likely solution. But one worries if the smoke-and-mirrors schemes the Mavs used for much of the season will be as effective when seen day after day in a playoff series. The December Mavs win this series in 5. In April? I'm not so sure. Pick: Blazers in 6

(2) L.A. Lakers vs. (7) New Orleans

Season series: 4-0 Los Angeles
AccuScore says: 81% Lakers

The Hornets bravely fought their way into the postseason despite a season-ending injury to leading scorer David West, but now that they're here I'm not expecting much. The Lakers have historically had a lot of trouble defending Chris Paul, but historically Paul's knee felt a lot better than it does now. And even if CP goes off, the Hornets have no match for the Lakers' size in the middle, particularly with an undersized Carl Landry trying to check Pau Gasol.

Of course, Gasol may have to move to center for the first two games while Andrew Bynum heals from a hyperextended knee, and I'm sure the Hornets are bummed the series format is Sunday-Wednesday rather than Saturday-Monday, because it gives L.A.'s behemoth defensive centerpiece plenty of time to heal. Not that it matters in this matchup; even without Bynum, the Hornets are in over their heads in this one. Pick: Lakers in 4

(4) Oklahoma City vs. (5) Denver

Season series: 3-1 Oklahoma City
Accuscore says: 67% Thunder

It's a shame these two are playing each other, because it means one of them won't advance while either Dallas or Portland does; both these teams are better than either of the contestants in the No. 3 vs. No. 6 series. Between the quality play both teams showed down the stretch, the rapidly developing distaste for one another between Nene and Kendrick Perkins, and the fact this is the only first-round pairing of 50-win teams, I expect this to be the best first-round series. (I hope I'm right, since I'm covering it.)

Denver shockingly ascended to second in the Power Rankings after the Anthony trade, but Oklahoma City appears to be its Kryptonite -- the Nuggets lost twice to the Thunder in a span of four days, and in terms of score those were their two worst defeats since the trade deadline.

I have a few other concerns about the Nuggets, too. Ty Lawson hurt his ankle in the final regular-season game, and it's not like he's a 7-footer who can rely on size and guile -- if he doesn't have his jets, he's worthless. Chris Andersen and Arron Afflalo were nicked up down the stretch, too.

Finally, there's the idea that they may be built better for the regular season. Denver's depth is scary, to the point that George Karl can and will play 10 guys 24 minutes apiece. But in a playoff format where you can leave your best players on the court for longer, that's less of an advantage.

All of that, plus the fact teams who win the season series and have home-court advantage in the first round virtually never lose (from Thursday's piece), make me select the Thunder. But whatever team comes out of this series is a real threat to get to the Finals. Pick: Thunder in 7

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[h3]CONFERENCE SEMIS[/h3]
The interesting thing about the second round onward is that, historically, the season series becomes virtually meaningless. Hey, I didn't make the rules, I just play by them -- history says we can stop paying attention to the season series after the first round.

EAST

(2) Miami vs. (3) Boston

Season series: 3-1 Boston
AccuScore says: 53% Heat

This matchup is where the changing fortunes of these two contenders become most apparent. Miami struggled out of the gate at 9-8 while Boston blasted to a 23-4 start; as late as March 8, Boston was six games ahead of Miami in the loss column. Since then, the Celtics are 10-11 and the Heat are 15-3.

Miami picked up home-court advantage for this series along the way, as well as the psychological value of hammering the Celtics in a late-season matchup after close defeats in the first three meetings. I still think Boston will frustrate Miami's offense at times, but the Celtics aren't going to score enough for it to matter. Pick: Heat in 6

(1) Chicago vs. (4) Orlando

Season series: 3-1 Chicago
AccuScore says: 62% Bulls

This series is more interesting than it looks on paper, and not only for the potential of Dwight Howard going Olajuwon on the Bulls after Derrick Rose gets the MVP trophy. Orlando thrashed Chicago 107-78 in the United Center early in the season and nearly beat the Bulls without Howard at the end of the season.

Orlando had the league's fifth-best scoring margin, believe it or not; since reshaping their roster at the 25-game mark the Magic haven't lost a game by more than 13 points and have won 16 times by such margins, including one-sided victories over the Lakers, Spurs and Thunder.

They're a quirky team because they space the floor and shoot 3s, and because Howard is such a mismatch for most opponents, and their fortunes can vary wildly depending on matchups. It seems to me this one is a good one for them -- although the Bulls have a lot of big bodies, none of them are anywhere near as big as Howard, and the floor-spacing teams tend to do best against Thibodeau's defensive schemes. For those reasons, this series will be much closer than people think. But because of Chicago's home-court advantage and point guard edge, I have the Bulls prevailing. Pick: Chicago in 7

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WEST

(1) San Antonio vs. (4) Oklahoma City

Season series: 3-0 Spurs
AccuScore says: 52% Spurs

If they played this in January, it wouldn't be close. The Spurs were the league's best team for two-thirds of the season, while the Thunder struggled through that same portion, especially defensively.

Since then, however, it's a different story. The Thunder went 13-3 with Kendrick Perkins before punting the season finale against Milwaukee, including road wins over the Lakers, Heat and Nuggets. They were playing better even before that, partly because the mere fact they traded Jeff Green opened the door for the vastly superior Serge Ibaka to get more playing time.

San Antonio has scuffled along since early March. Granted, the Spurs haven't been playing for much, but their formula has always been to peak late, and this season they were about six months too early. Manu Ginobili should be reasonably healthy by the time this series rolls around, but this still looks to me like a "changing of the guard" series, with the Thunder overcoming the franchise they've worked so hard to emulate. Pick: Thunder in 6

(2) L.A. Lakers vs. (6) Portland

Season series: 3-1 Lakers
AccuScore says: 73% Lakers

The Lakers can be counted on to lose their collective minds in Portland, and for that reason the Blazers will win at least once and maybe twice; Brandon Roy has lost to the Lakers in the Rose Garden only once his entire career, and that was in overtime.

But win the series? Please. L.A. beat Portland three times in the regular season, and lost the final meeting only because the Lakers mailed in the game as blatantly as I've seen any team do in any game this season. The Blazers' best lineup leaves Gerald Wallace trying to check Pau Gasol, and that won't fly; unless Marcus Camby returns to life in the coming weeks the familiar story of L.A.'s size overwhelming an opponent will again prove the difference. Pick: Lakers in 5

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[h3]CONFERENCE FINALS[/h3]
Welcome to my Waterloo. In the past two years I'm 24-2 predicting the other three rounds, and 0-4 in the conference finals. This has cost me two TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown trophies and won me countless insults from Lakers fans. Cleveland-Denver? Orlando-Phoenix? Figments of my imagination, apparently. Well, let's see if we can do any better this year.

EAST

(1) Chicago vs. (2) Miami

Season Series: 3-0 Bulls
AccuScore says: 52% Bulls

These are the two best teams in the league, and I believe the winner of this series will win the championship. Chicago has the league's best record and sits atop the Power Rankings; Miami leads the league in scoring margin and is third in both win-loss record and the Power Rankings. These teams have the league's two best records since Dec. 1, and while the other contenders spent March and April showcasing their weaknesses, these two clubs gained steam.

The only question left, then, is whom to pick. It's a tough call, but to me it underscores the difference between the regular season and the postseason. Chicago went all-out for every win and achieved the league's best record with the help of an impressive bench. While the Bulls are to be commended for that, their advantage in effort and second-unit performance is going to diminish in the playoff environment -- teams don't play the subs as much in the playoffs, and everybody is going full-tilt.

Miami, meanwhile, has something of the opposite factor. I have a feeling the Heat's stars were pacing themselves a bit, and I know for a fact the Heat will benefit from converting 25 minutes or so of replacement-level bench play into 25 minutes of All-Star performance from their Big Three.

My one misgiving is that Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau's defense is tailor-made for stopping scorers like James and Wade, as shown a year ago when Boston -- with Thibodeau as assistant coach -- tore through both of them en route to the Eastern crown. It's incumbent on the Heat stars to make quick decisions and move the ball; if LeBron reverts to running the pick-and-retreat-to-half-court play, Miami will lose.

I think the Heat are now far enough along, however, that they won't backslide to bad habits. Pick: Heat in 6

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WEST

(4) Oklahoma City vs. (2) L.A. Lakers

Season Series: 2-1 Los Angeles
AccuScore says: 61% Lakers

This rematch of last year's best first-round series is compelling on multiple levels. Start with the blazing speed of Russell Westbrook, which will leave the Lakers' point guards with their hands full. Up front, the Thunder combo of Perkins and Ibaka is one of the few that can hang with the Gasol-Bynum combo that L.A. sends out.

On the other hand, L.A. has the edge on the wings. The presence of Kobe Bryant makes it difficult for Oklahoma City to play the scorching hot James Harden extended minutes, while Ron Artest has proven a very capable foil for scoring leader Kevin Durant.

What it comes down to is (A) how much stock you put in the Lakers' season-ending slump and (B) how healthy Bynum will be. The answer to (A) is obvious for me -- I didn't think the Lakers were really trying. As for (B), that's more problematic. Bynum is the antidote to Westbrook, in a way. It doesn't matter how many blow-bys Westbrook gets on Derek Fisher if Bynum erases those mistakes at the rim. As long as he's participating, I'll take the Lakers for a fourth straight Western Conference crown. Pick: Lakers in 7

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[h3]NBA FINALS[/h3]

(2) Miami vs. (2) L.A. Lakers

Season series: 2-0 Miami
AccuScore says: 50% each

Take a victory lap, commissioner, and break out the puppets, sponsors: We've finally got Kobe and LeBron meeting up in the Finals.

As I said, I think the Heat and Bulls are the two best teams and the Eastern Conference champ will win in the Finals. Not only will either Miami or Chicago have home-court advantage, but both present matchup problems for L.A. The Lakers have lost their past four games against LeBron James, including this year's sweep by the Heat, and would be equally stretched to cover Derrick Rose with their slow-footed point guards.

While the Lakers' most recent display of vulnerability will be ancient history by the time the Finals rolls around, the fly in the ointment for this prediction is the health of the star players for each team. Neither has the depth to withstand an injury to a top player, and we still have two months of basketball for them to survive.

That's why a bet on the field is still a safer bet than putting money on either of these two teams. Nonetheless, if forced to pick, I like the Heat to beat the Lakers in the Finals -- I'm sticking with my choice from the start of the season. Miami was playing as well as any other contender at the end of the season, and has the most potential upside in the postseason. Pick: Heat in 6

By John Hollinger

 

[h3at23]

I still have my 2006 White Hot shirt & lil towels they were giving out during the playoffs

 

[mr2cool80]

Originally Posted by h3at23

I still have my 2006 White Hot shirt & lil towels they were giving out during the playoffs

YESSIR!!!!!! 

 "Estrella Auto Insurance" on the back of the shirts 

 

[h3at23]

NBA NBA
The @MiamiHEAT's LeBRON JAMES (28.5ppg, 55 FG%, 8apg, 6.8rpg) & @OKCThunder's KEVIN DURANT (26.8ppg, 7.3rpg) named KIA Players of the Month

 

[kingjames23]

Anyone else gonna be there tomorrow?

 

[YouGotThese]

h3at23 wrote:

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This man makes me scratch my head as much as anyone but for atleast 1 day, he's good in my book:

[h1]Heat vs. Lakers in the NBA Finals?[/h1]

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ESPN.com

Issac Baldizon/NBAE/Getty ImagesWill Dwyane Wade and the Heat keep Kobe Bryant and the Lakers from a third straight NBA title?

I've broken it all down, and after further consideration and careful review of the bracket, I've decided it will be at least one more year before I get a Hawks-Blazers Finals.

The rest of my picks? They're just around the corner. Since I know this preamble is just, well, preamble, and that you're really here to see who I'm picking, I'll cut right to it. I spoke a lot about some of the factors behind these picks Thursday in the Harbingers and you'll see reference to them here; with each series, you'll also see who the AccuScore Predictor favors and how the season series went.
[h3]FIRST ROUND[/h3]
EAST

(2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia

Season series: 3-0 Miami
AccuScore says: 76% Heat

I won't dwell on this one too long; suffice it to say that Philly looks overmatched even with a healthy Lou Williams, and we're not sure if he can go. The Sixers' main advantage is that they can throw an ace defender at LeBron James in Andre Iguodala, but Jodie Meeks and Williams will be completely overmatched against Dwyane Wade; don't be surprised if Jrue Holiday is on Wade for big chunks of time. Philly can also get away with playing bench ace Thaddeus Young for extended chunks as a 4, a lineup the Sixers have used to devastating effect this season.

With all that said, the Sixers already have won the jackpot just by getting here, and if they win Game 3 at home the season will be a huge success. They'll get that done, but not anything more. Pick: Heat in 5

(1) Chicago vs. (

Indiana

Season series: 3-1 Chicago
AccuScore says: 91% Bulls

Obviously, there is a huge disparity in talent here, but I have two reasons to think Indy might make this quasi-competitive. First, the Pacers' offense matches up well against the Bulls' defense -- teams that like to drive, kick, swing the ball and shoot from outside do the best against Tom Thibodeau's strongside blitzing schemes. Second, Indy has had one lineup this year that's been devastating -- the Darren Collison-Mike Dunleavy-Danny Granger-Josh McRoberts-Roy Hibbert unit has a plus-8.15 adjusted plus-minus -- and that's likely the quintet it'll be rolling with in this series. Because of that, I think the Pacers will steal a game somewhere along the way, but they're just prolonging the agony. Pick: Bulls in 5

(4) Orlando vs. (5) Atlanta

Season series: 3-1 Atlanta
AccuScore says: 89% Magic

This is a fascinating case of matchups being an overriding concern. Based strictly on season results, Orlando should sweep Atlanta. The Hawks won 44 games but gave up more points than they scored; in terms of point differential they were no better than the 35-win Bucks. Atlanta also lost its final six games and appeared to treat new coach Larry Drew as a substitute teacher, with Josh Smith blithely ignoring requests to quit shooting jumpers with 18 on the shot clock.

But the one thing the Hawks have going for them is that they can defend Dwight Howard. This is has been the biggest variable in every previous Orlando series -- teams that can single cover Howard effectively win, and those that can't lose. The Hawks, with low-post defensive ace Jason Collins and physical backup Zaza Pachulia, defended Howard very effectively in their four regular-season meetings, enabling them to win the series despite fairly anemic offense of their own.

I expect this to be a low-scoring series, and I expect it will drag on for a while. (Also, I expect Hubie Brown to mispronounce "Pachulia" at least 17 times). The Hawks have been so bad since Christmas that I can't pick them to win, but they'll make it interesting. Pick: Magic in 7

(3) Boston vs. (6) New York

Season series: 4-0 Boston
AccuScore says: 76% Celtics

Everyone is excited about this series because it's Boston and New York, but I'm not sure it will live up to the hype on the court. Boston struggled down the stretch, but it was mostly because of a bench unit that will be a bystander in this series. The Celtics' four All-Star starters, regardless of the center with which they're paired (or non-center, in Jeff Green's case), have been a devastating combination statistically, but Boston has really struggled when Rajon Rondo checks out. He'll be checking out a lot less in this series.

As for the 'Bockers, they'll be able to score some, but defensively they were so bad after the Carmelo Anthony trade that it's tough to muster much enthusiasm for a deep playoff run. Amare and Melo will shoot them to victory at least once and maybe twice, but they won't do it four times. If there's any doubt about that, refer to that rule of thumb -- teams that have home-court advantage against their first-round opponent and also won the season series virtually never lose. Pick: Celtics in 5

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WEST

(1) San Antonio vs. (

Memphis

Season series: 2-2
AccuScore says: 82% Spurs

The amazing thing about this series is how utterly devoid of value the four regular-season meetings are for the purposes of projecting the playoffs. San Antonio lost to Memphis twice, but once without Tim Duncan and once without Tony Parker; the two Spurs victories, meanwhile, were both at home and hardly resounding (one went to OT).

The relevant stat for Memphis is what it's done since Rudy Gay went out -- with Tony Allen starting and the Griz no longer watering down their rotation with assorted Thabeets and Henrys, Memphis went 15-8 prior to tanking the final two games, with a scoring margin of plus-5.2 points per game.

In other words, this is not your typical No. 8 seed. Memphis is deep, defends, has two low-post weapons and a world-class wing stopper. And with Manu Ginobili hurting, suddenly this looks like a difficult series for the Spurs.

I wouldn't be surprised if they lost the opener, with Ginobili either sitting out or limited, but I'd still be surprised if they lost the entire series. The Spurs aren't playing as well as they were at midseason but between home-court advantage and Memphis' copious lack of perimeter shooting, they still should be able to hold off the challenge. Pick: Spurs in 6

(3) Dallas vs. (6) Portland

Season series: 2-2
AccuScore says: 67% Mavs

Meet the most disrespected 57-win team in nearly two decades, the Dallas Mavericks. The only team I can recall that won as much and was as readily dismissed by the public was the 1993-94 Atlanta Hawks, who won 57 games before being brushed aside by the Pacers in Round 2 of the playoffs. Of course, those Hawks also planted the seeds of their own demise by offending the karma gods with the shameful Dominique Wilkins-Danny Manning trade at midseason; the Mavs, thankfully, continue to employ Dirk Nowitzki.

It's the other players Dallas uses that may be the problem. With Caron Butler injured and Rodrigue Beaubois possibly also missing the series, the Mavs come in at less than full strength. (And, by the way, what's up with Jason Terry? In the past two weeks he took a cheap shot at Steve Blake, got in a fight on his own bench and celebrated a missed free throw because he didn't know the score.)

On paper, this is about as close to a toss-up as you can get. Dallas is ninth in the Power Rankings, Portland is 10th. They split the season series, with a differential of three points in favor of the Blazers.

However, focusing on the players they'll actually field in this series, I give a slight edge to the Blazers. Portland's lineups with Gerald Wallace in them have all been lights out, in terms of adjusted plus-minus (hat tip to basketballvalue.com), while the Blazers' overall numbers are dragged down by players like Joel Przybilla, Armon Johnson, Sean Marks and Chris Johnson who won't be participating in this series. The two concerns for Portland are backup point guard, where Patty Mills has been barely adequate and may be left out of the rotation in favor of Brandon Roy or Rudy Fernandez, and Marcus Camby, who has seemed less than spry since midseason.

The key for Dallas will be limiting the vulnerability of its small guards on defense. Dallas plays a lot of zone and the Blazers can't shoot (21st in 3-point percentage at 34.5 percent), so that's the likely solution. But one worries if the smoke-and-mirrors schemes the Mavs used for much of the season will be as effective when seen day after day in a playoff series. The December Mavs win this series in 5. In April? I'm not so sure. Pick: Blazers in 6

(2) L.A. Lakers vs. (7) New Orleans

Season series: 4-0 Los Angeles
AccuScore says: 81% LakersThe Hornets bravely fought their way into the postseason despite a season-ending injury to leading scorer David West, but now that they're here I'm not expecting much. The Lakers have historically had a lot of trouble defending Chris Paul, but historically Paul's knee felt a lot better than it does now. And even if CP goes off, the Hornets have no match for the Lakers' size in the middle, particularly with an undersized Carl Landry trying to check Pau Gasol.

Of course, Gasol may have to move to center for the first two games while Andrew Bynum heals from a hyperextended knee, and I'm sure the Hornets are bummed the series format is Sunday-Wednesday rather than Saturday-Monday, because it gives L.A.'s behemoth defensive centerpiece plenty of time to heal. Not that it matters in this matchup; even without Bynum, the Hornets are in over their heads in this one. Pick: Lakers in 4

(4) Oklahoma City vs. (5) Denver

Season series: 3-1 Oklahoma City
Accuscore says: 67% Thunder

It's a shame these two are playing each other, because it means one of them won't advance while either Dallas or Portland does; both these teams are better than either of the contestants in the No. 3 vs. No. 6 series. Between the quality play both teams showed down the stretch, the rapidly developing distaste for one another between Nene and Kendrick Perkins, and the fact this is the only first-round pairing of 50-win teams, I expect this to be the best first-round series. (I hope I'm right, since I'm covering it.)

Denver shockingly ascended to second in the Power Rankings after the Anthony trade, but Oklahoma City appears to be its Kryptonite -- the Nuggets lost twice to the Thunder in a span of four days, and in terms of score those were their two worst defeats since the trade deadline.

I have a few other concerns about the Nuggets, too. Ty Lawson hurt his ankle in the final regular-season game, and it's not like he's a 7-footer who can rely on size and guile -- if he doesn't have his jets, he's worthless. Chris Andersen and Arron Afflalo were nicked up down the stretch, too.

Finally, there's the idea that they may be built better for the regular season. Denver's depth is scary, to the point that George Karl can and will play 10 guys 24 minutes apiece. But in a playoff format where you can leave your best players on the court for longer, that's less of an advantage.

All of that, plus the fact teams who win the season series and have home-court advantage in the first round virtually never lose (from Thursday's piece), make me select the Thunder. But whatever team comes out of this series is a real threat to get to the Finals. Pick: Thunder in 7

---

[h3]CONFERENCE SEMIS[/h3]
The interesting thing about the second round onward is that, historically, the season series becomes virtually meaningless. Hey, I didn't make the rules, I just play by them -- history says we can stop paying attention to the season series after the first round.

EAST

(2) Miami vs. (3) Boston

Season series: 3-1 Boston
AccuScore says: 53% Heat

This matchup is where the changing fortunes of these two contenders become most apparent. Miami struggled out of the gate at 9-8 while Boston blasted to a 23-4 start; as late as March 8, Boston was six games ahead of Miami in the loss column. Since then, the Celtics are 10-11 and the Heat are 15-3.

Miami picked up home-court advantage for this series along the way, as well as the psychological value of hammering the Celtics in a late-season matchup after close defeats in the first three meetings. I still think Boston will frustrate Miami's offense at times, but the Celtics aren't going to score enough for it to matter. Pick: Heat in 6

(1) Chicago vs. (4) Orlando

Season series: 3-1 Chicago
AccuScore says: 62% Bulls

This series is more interesting than it looks on paper, and not only for the potential of Dwight Howard going Olajuwon on the Bulls after Derrick Rose gets the MVP trophy. Orlando thrashed Chicago 107-78 in the United Center early in the season and nearly beat the Bulls without Howard at the end of the season.

Orlando had the league's fifth-best scoring margin, believe it or not; since reshaping their roster at the 25-game mark the Magic haven't lost a game by more than 13 points and have won 16 times by such margins, including one-sided victories over the Lakers, Spurs and Thunder.

They're a quirky team because they space the floor and shoot 3s, and because Howard is such a mismatch for most opponents, and their fortunes can vary wildly depending on matchups. It seems to me this one is a good one for them -- although the Bulls have a lot of big bodies, none of them are anywhere near as big as Howard, and the floor-spacing teams tend to do best against Thibodeau's defensive schemes. For those reasons, this series will be much closer than people think. But because of Chicago's home-court advantage and point guard edge, I have the Bulls prevailing. Pick: Chicago in 7

---

WEST

(1) San Antonio vs. (4) Oklahoma City

Season series: 3-0 Spurs
AccuScore says: 52% Spurs

If they played this in January, it wouldn't be close. The Spurs were the league's best team for two-thirds of the season, while the Thunder struggled through that same portion, especially defensively.

Since then, however, it's a different story. The Thunder went 13-3 with Kendrick Perkins before punting the season finale against Milwaukee, including road wins over the Lakers, Heat and Nuggets. They were playing better even before that, partly because the mere fact they traded Jeff Green opened the door for the vastly superior Serge Ibaka to get more playing time.

San Antonio has scuffled along since early March. Granted, the Spurs haven't been playing for much, but their formula has always been to peak late, and this season they were about six months too early. Manu Ginobili should be reasonably healthy by the time this series rolls around, but this still looks to me like a "changing of the guard" series, with the Thunder overcoming the franchise they've worked so hard to emulate. Pick: Thunder in 6

(2) L.A. Lakers vs. (6) Portland

Season series: 3-1 Lakers
AccuScore says: 73% LakersThe Lakers can be counted on to lose their collective minds in Portland, and for that reason the Blazers will win at least once and maybe twice; Brandon Roy has lost to the Lakers in the Rose Garden only once his entire career, and that was in overtime.

But win the series? Please. L.A. beat Portland three times in the regular season, and lost the final meeting only because the Lakers mailed in the game as blatantly as I've seen any team do in any game this season. The Blazers' best lineup leaves Gerald Wallace trying to check Pau Gasol, and that won't fly; unless Marcus Camby returns to life in the coming weeks the familiar story of L.A.'s size overwhelming an opponent will again prove the difference. Pick: Lakers in 5

---

[h3]CONFERENCE FINALS[/h3]
Welcome to my Waterloo. In the past two years I'm 24-2 predicting the other three rounds, and 0-4 in the conference finals. This has cost me two TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown trophies and won me countless insults from Lakers fans. Cleveland-Denver? Orlando-Phoenix? Figments of my imagination, apparently. Well, let's see if we can do any better this year.

EAST

(1) Chicago vs. (2) Miami

Season Series: 3-0 Bulls
AccuScore says: 52% Bulls

These are the two best teams in the league, and I believe the winner of this series will win the championship. Chicago has the league's best record and sits atop the Power Rankings; Miami leads the league in scoring margin and is third in both win-loss record and the Power Rankings. These teams have the league's two best records since Dec. 1, and while the other contenders spent March and April showcasing their weaknesses, these two clubs gained steam.

The only question left, then, is whom to pick. It's a tough call, but to me it underscores the difference between the regular season and the postseason. Chicago went all-out for every win and achieved the league's best record with the help of an impressive bench. While the Bulls are to be commended for that, their advantage in effort and second-unit performance is going to diminish in the playoff environment -- teams don't play the subs as much in the playoffs, and everybody is going full-tilt.

Miami, meanwhile, has something of the opposite factor. I have a feeling the Heat's stars were pacing themselves a bit, and I know for a fact the Heat will benefit from converting 25 minutes or so of replacement-level bench play into 25 minutes of All-Star performance from their Big Three.

My one misgiving is that Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau's defense is tailor-made for stopping scorers like James and Wade, as shown a year ago when Boston -- with Thibodeau as assistant coach -- tore through both of them en route to the Eastern crown. It's incumbent on the Heat stars to make quick decisions and move the ball; if LeBron reverts to running the pick-and-retreat-to-half-court play, Miami will lose.

I think the Heat are now far enough along, however, that they won't backslide to bad habits. Pick: Heat in 6

---

WEST

(4) Oklahoma City vs. (2) L.A. LakersSeason Series: 2-1 Los Angeles
AccuScore says: 61% LakersThis rematch of last year's best first-round series is compelling on multiple levels. Start with the blazing speed of Russell Westbrook, which will leave the Lakers' point guards with their hands full. Up front, the Thunder combo of Perkins and Ibaka is one of the few that can hang with the Gasol-Bynum combo that L.A. sends out.

On the other hand, L.A. has the edge on the wings. The presence of Kobe Bryant makes it difficult for Oklahoma City to play the scorching hot James Harden extended minutes, while Ron Artest has proven a very capable foil for scoring leader Kevin Durant.

What it comes down to is (A) how much stock you put in the Lakers' season-ending slump and (B) how healthy Bynum will be. The answer to (A) is obvious for me -- I didn't think the Lakers were really trying. As for (B), that's more problematic. Bynum is the antidote to Westbrook, in a way. It doesn't matter how many blow-bys Westbrook gets on Derek Fisher if Bynum erases those mistakes at the rim. As long as he's participating, I'll take the Lakers for a fourth straight Western Conference crown. Pick: Lakers in 7

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[h3]NBA FINALS[/h3]

(2) Miami vs. (2) L.A. LakersSeason series: 2-0 Miami
AccuScore says: 50% each

Take a victory lap, commissioner, and break out the puppets, sponsors: We've finally got Kobe and LeBron meeting up in the Finals.

As I said, I think the Heat and Bulls are the two best teams and the Eastern Conference champ will win in the Finals. Not only will either Miami or Chicago have home-court advantage, but both present matchup problems for L.A. The Lakers have lost their past four games against LeBron James, including this year's sweep by the Heat, and would be equally stretched to cover Derrick Rose with their slow-footed point guards.

While the Lakers' most recent display of vulnerability will be ancient history by the time the Finals rolls around, the fly in the ointment for this prediction is the health of the star players for each team. Neither has the depth to withstand an injury to a top player, and we still have two months of basketball for them to survive.

That's why a bet on the field is still a safer bet than putting money on either of these two teams. Nonetheless, if forced to pick, I like the Heat to beat the Lakers in the Finals -- I'm sticking with my choice from the start of the season. Miami was playing as well as any other contender at the end of the season, and has the most potential upside in the postseason. Pick: Heat in 6

By John Hollinger




How sick would that be if things work out like how he predicted?!?!

 
Its one mans prediction but its not that far off.

 

[youngtriz]

 

[bdis1986]

YoungTriz wrote:

---

  

 I'm about to watch the championship DVD again

  the full 4th quarter of game 6...

 

[youngtriz]

u watch the inside the heat with wade?

 

[acbboyz84]

Originally Posted by YoungTriz

They forgot to add the 3 referees to that pic

 

[durantula]

lol @ that guys predictions, hes mad dumb, heat still in for that 2nd round ko if they play the celtics

 

[mr2cool80]

Good morning fellas!!!

Playoffs are here finally. Non-Heat fans, I for one appreciate and respect everyones opinion and personally believe that it makes for pretty good discussions. Having said that, if you post in here to hate and flame you just might be trolling and find yourself getting reported. Just issuing a fair warning.

Lets Go HEAT!!!

 

[h3at23]

Originally Posted by ACBboyz84

Originally Posted by YoungTriz

They forgot to add the 3 referees to that pic

* Looks at avy, shakes head*

The NERVE of this guy

 

[eagle 0n]

What's the deal with Haslem? Is he eligible for the playoffs? 

 

[h3at23]

Originally Posted by EAGLE 0N

What's the deal with Haslem? Is he eligible for the playoffs? 

Yes. He'll play 15-25 mins a game when he's ready

 

[eagle 0n]

Originally Posted by h3at23

Originally Posted by EAGLE 0N

What's the deal with Haslem? Is he eligible for the playoffs? 

Yes. He'll play 15-25 mins a game when he's ready

Nice

Good luck to you guys.

 

[h3at23]

Originally Posted by EAGLE 0N

Originally Posted by h3at23

Originally Posted by EAGLE 0N

What's the deal with Haslem? Is he eligible for the playoffs? 

Yes. He'll play 15-25 mins a game when he's ready

Nice

Good luck to you guys.

thx man!

 

[h3at23]

Shandel_HeatNBA Shandel Richardson

Erick Dampier and Udonis Haslem inactive

 

[mr2cool80]

Does the inactive list remain the same series by series or is it game by game? Meaning, player (x) can be inactive for Gm 1 but active for Gm 2 .. correct?

 

[h3at23]

game by game

 

[mr2cool80]

no doubt, that's what I figured .... thanks homie. Where are you watching the Game? I'm still in Tampa unfortunately ..

 

[h3at23]

home......u?

 

[mr2cool80]

LETS GOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!