I'm going to omit stuff I said I was like 14-15; like OJ>Kevin Love (I've been on NT a long *** time)
Most of this stuff is draft related, because I follow it closely most years.
Jimmer Fredette
After seeing Steve Nash and then Steph Curry distort defensive coverages with off the dribble 3 point shooting ability. I though that PG's who could shoot off the dribble 3's, off the pick and roll, with deep range would become insanely valuable.
especially as teams when away from hedging hard, and went to drop back pick and roll, I thought Jimmer could totally exploit that and be a stpeh curry light.
Turns out he's defense made him unplayable and his PG skills were limited than I thought.
Eric Bledsoe
I just didn't understand what he was good at, what NBA skill he was going to hang his hat on turns out I didn't give him enough redit for playing out of position at Kentucky. This is why following prospects from age 16- to draft makes evaluating things way easier.
Dairus Morris
This was before I figure out that freshman performance is the most predictive year of college basketball. also playing PG, in john belin system is really really easy, and before I really keyed into how difficult it is to be an effective NBA perimiter player if you can't shoot.