Concern Beginning to Mount that WrestleMania 29 Did a Very Disappointing Buyrate
Credit: Bryan Alvarez of Figure Four Weekly
The biggest story to follow going forward is the WrestleMania buyrate. We don't have an official number and it will be months before we do. However, three different sources this week stated that very early estimates do not, in fact, look good, and one number I was given was downright shocking. Keep in mind that a number this far out can fluctuate wildly, sometimes by hundreds of thousands of buys worldwide. One source noted that WWE's own internal projections were lowered substantially in the final week before the show based on the Elimination Chamber PPV number coming in lower than expected.
If the number comes in low, there are several factors to consider. First, what impact did PPV outages have on the final number? The WWE iPPV feed was a complete disaster, with some not being able to access the show for hours and others never being able to access it. However, one would think based on historical iPPV numbers in the US that this wouldn't make the difference between, say, 800,000 US buys and 500,000 US buys (just throwing numbers out there, so please don't report elsewhere that I said WrestleMania did 500,000 buys in the US). Most likely, less than 50,000 people, perhaps substantially less, tried to order the show online. I did, however, hear during the show that there were traditional PPV providers unable to process orders, both in specific cities and also, according to several reports, nationwide for periods of time through major providers (Comcast Xfinity was mentioned along with Verizon and others). I do remember thinking at the time that if the reports were correct, that could gravely affect the US PPV numbers. But at the moment, it's impossible to determine how many people were actually unable to order as compared to how many had problems but were finally able to pay. Plus, whenever something like this happens, you largely hear from those who had problems, not those who were able to order successfully.
If the number is low due to a tech issue, that's obviously terrible for the company since they're out perhaps millions of dollars through no fault of their own, but at least it's not a situation where the company felt they were hot but were in fact selling their audience something they didn't want to buy on the biggest show of the year. I did hear from people after Royal Rumble that they weren't buying WrestleMania because they had no interest in Rock vs. Cena II, but part of me thought that, at the end of the day, it was WrestleMania in the New York and the vast majority of regular WrestleMania buyers would buy again when the day came. If it turns out that the number is low and the cable issues weren't nearly as widespread as first reported, well, this has far-reaching ramifications.
First, if interest in this show was down significantly, the first thing that you have to point to is obviously the main event. Rock won't be around much at all, but John Cena is now champion and face of the company yet again (not that he ever wasn't even when CM Punk held the title for more than 400 days). Granted, if the public is starting to tire of him more than believed, they could always take the title off of him and push someone else into that position (easier said than done, obviously, but it's not like they are trapped with him as champion). The bigger issue, moreso than the possibility that they're pushing a guy that after a full decade has finally worn out his welcome as a big-time draw, is the idea that if the US number is low – say, 500,000 to 600,000 buys – that makes the idea of starting up the WWE Network look even worse than it was before last Sunday.
Several articles about the Network have come out in recent weeks. Not a lot of new information in them, but they do all note the company's belief that they'll need 1,000,000 subscribers to break even. Let's say WrestleMania did 600,000 US buys. This is not your average PPV, this is the single biggest show of the year, the show that even for people who don't watch wrestling, if they have any interest and are going to buy any show all year long, it's this one. Granted, the Network will be $14.95 monthly and this year's WrestleMania was a sky-high $69.95. That's still, for many viewers, a one-time annual cost, and it's still less than it would cost to buy the Network every month for a year. I do think some people skipped out on Mania due to the increased cost, and maybe those people will still cough up $14.95 for the Network, but the question remains, if they can't draw anywhere close to 1 million buys in the US for WrestleMania (and again, while I don't know the estimated number at this point, I can tell you it was a hell of a lot less than 1 million), how are they possibly going to hit 1 million monthly subscribers, much less 2 million or 3 million, particularly since they often don't get 3 million homes to watch Raw for free every week?