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- Aug 2, 2008
Starting Pitchers:
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Catcher:
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FREE AGENCY:
3 Types of Roster Guesses
Masahiro Tanaka
Grade: B+
12-7 24G 3.51ERA 3.98FIP 154.0IP 60ER 25HR 27BB 139K .994WHIP 7.4H/9 1.5HR/9 1.6BB/9 8.1K/9 .221/.254/.420
Tanaka missed a month, he has us a nervous wreck every single start because we never know if this is the day, he’s done for 12-15 months. But overall, he actually had a good season, with the exception of 1 facet of his game. That is homeruns, his HR/9 increased from 1.0 to 1.5. From 15HRs in 136.1IP in 2014 to 25HRs in 154.0 IP in 2015. Luckily for us, he doesn’t allow a lot of people on base, so this really didn’t hurt us too much, but it still was a problem. Any time Tanaka made a mistake, it seemed like an automatic homerun. Just looking at his stats, if he kept the same HR/9 rate, he would have given up 7 less homeruns in 2015. Say 4 were solo shots, 2 were 2run HRs, and 1 was 3R HR. That’s 11 runs on Tanaka’s ledger, if you calculate his ERA without those 11 runs, he has a 2.86ERA, which is close enough to 2.77ERA in 2014. Across the board though, Tanaka was the same pitcher in 2015 that he was in 2014 (other variance was 1.3 less K/9). What needs to happen is he needs to keep his mistakes low in the zone. If you’re going to miss on the splitter, it needs to stay out of the middle. He left way too many mistakes up in the zone, and paid for it. Fortunately, with no runners on more often than not.
Michael Pineda
Grade: B-
12-10 27G 4.37ERA 3.34FIP 160.2IP 176H 78ER 21HR 21BB 156Ks 1.226WHIP 9.9H/9 1.2HR/9 1.2BB/9 8.7K/9 .278/.301/.451
The first two months, Michael Pineda was an ace. He was 6-2. Only walked 5 in 10 starts. Had over a K per inning. WHIP was about 1.10. He was reliable, and then the next 4 months, he was very inconsistent, and injured in August. It was like he had one good start then one bad start then a good start followed by a bad start. It became frustrating. Biggest problem it looks like, is the same problem Tanaka had. HRs. Went from 0.6 HR/9 in 2014 to 1.2HR/9 in 2015. Walks up from 0.8 per 9 to 1.2, but that is at least so insignificant that it doesn’t even matter. He threw 76 innings in 2014 only gave up 5 HRs, 160 in 2015 gave up 21 HRs. There’s at least 5 that he gave up that should have never happened due to lack of placement. Yes, missing a pitch happens, but it happened more often than ever for Pineda in June, July & September this season.
1. He needs to stay healthy. 2. He needs to stay consistent, needs to be able to find that offspeed and breaking stuff that makes him so difficult to hit.
Nathan Eovaldi
Grade: B-
14-3 27G 4.20ERA 3.42FIP 154.1IP 175H 72ER 10HR 49BB 121Ks 1.451WHIP 10.2H/9 0.6HR/9 2.9BB/9 7.1K/9 .285/.339/.377
Eovaldi pitched well, but I think his numbers are full of statistically anomalies. Of guys who pitched 120IP, he was 3rd in Run Support with 5.93. That is a ridiculous amount of runs, and a large reason why he was 14-3, and more specifically his total numbers do not depict a guy who was any better than a decent # 3, solid # 4. But credit where credit is due, he did not give up a bunch of home runs, also he really worked at his slider, which made him a different and more effective pitcher. There’s plenty of room for him to grow, so that is encouraging, and based on the FIP versus the ERA, he was hindered by the defense, but he also lucked out that the obscene amount of walks he gave up, did not end up as homeruns. Eovaldi can survive giving up 10.2 H/9, but he can’t continue surviving with almost 3 BB/9 because eventually that run support will crash to earth, and he then is reflected much more closer than who he is, than what his record looks like. I’d be curious, how many starts he’d lose if he pitched in September when we were hitting like Bernie Mac in Mr. 3000. Also an amazing stat, he only produces a 5.3% swing and miss in the strike zone, despite having the second highest Fastball Velocity of Starters with 100IP+ (96.7mph). To further clarify, Noah Syndergaard who had the highest fastball velocity for a starter at 97.1mp, had a 12.2% swinging strike %. CC who was throwing 90.1mph had 6.8% swinging strike. There’s very little movement on it based on the PITCHf/x data, and remains relatively straight. So he needs to get some movement on that fastball first off. I think this would explain why he’s got 10.2 H/9. Also he has a .360BABIP on his fastball. Add to the need to get that control under wraps. That will get the BB/9 under control, drop H/9 slightly, impact his ERA, and then he will be that much better of a pitcher.
C.C. Sabathia
Grade: C (Was turning it around come the end of the year, possibly because of the knee brace, but then was derailed by his personal issues)
6-10 29G 4.73 ERA 4.68FIP 167.1IP 188H 88ER 28HR 50BB 88ER 1.422 WHIP 10.1H/9 1.5 HR/9 2.7BB/9 7.4 K/9 .285/.338/.458
Just a look at CC shows that by the end of the year, he was coming around to becoming a quality middle of the rotation pitcher.. April – 5.96ERA, May – 5.45 ERA, June – 5.45ERA, July – 5.32, August-3.80ERA, September- 2.25ERA, October- 1.80ERA (1 start).
Let’s look at April versus September
4GS 25.2 IP 5.96ERA 31H 17ER 4HR 4BB 22Ks
4GS 24.0IP 2.25ERA 18H 6ER 2HR 10BB 21Ks
Yeah the walks spiked, but there is something different, perhaps it was the leg brace, it allowed him to be comfortable on the mound, and work counts, and get movement on his pitches, which is essential now that he’s a 91mph pitcher and not 95-96mph. Like stated in the Eovaldi part, he gets a pedestrian Swinging Strike Rate on fastballs, but that comes with throwing 90-91mph fastballs.
As I said last offseason, he needs to become more Andy Pettitte, it’s all about mixing pitches, and hitting your spots, you’re not blowing gas past anybody. On occasion, he can reach back and give you a 94mph, but that’s on pure aderenaline.
If he gets himself together, and is somewhere around what he was in August – the one start in October, we have a guy with big game experience, who is still better than most back end pitchers.
August – October
9GS 2-2 2.86ERA 50.1IP 16ER 45H 4HR 25BB 40Ks .243/.340/.346 .291BABIP
Just need to place those pitchers better, and you have the best you can get from an aging Former Ace.
Luis Severino
Grade: A
11G 5-3 2.89ERA 4.37FIP 20ER 53H 9HR 22BB 56Ks 1.203WHIP 7.7H/9 1.3HR/9 3.2BB/9 8.1K/9 .229/.302/.403
He looks like the real deal to me. He was confident, didn’t get rattled, was ready to step up, and was ready to pitch when his number was called. He has electric stuff, and a strikeout pitch in that slider. The only problem is clear, the walks are ridiculous. That’s why his FIP is 1.5 above his ERA. He walked way too many guys, he benefitted by not giving up too many hits, but he also did give up a lot of homeruns on the other end of that. A lot of homeruns + a lot of walks, could be a bad combo. He gets the benefit of the doubt because he was a midseason rookie. Just get a handle on the control, and he’ll be a front end starter by the time he’s 23 years old.
Ivan Nova
Grade: D
17G 6-11 5.07ERA 4.87FIP 53ER 99H 13HR 33BB 63Ks 1.40WHIP 9.5H/9 1.2HR/9 3.2BB/9 6.0K/9 .269/.339/.454
It’s a damn shame what happened to Nova, 2011 he was great, 2012 he slipped, but was not bad enough that you couldn’t see he had middle of the rotation stuff, 2013 he fully recovered had his best year, then wiped out in 2014 by Tommy John, and in 2015 showed some signs on rare occasions of being the same game, but more often he looked bad.
I’d take his last year of arbitration, and then trade him. He has no room here. It’s a shame because I really like Nova, but it was over once Severino came in and proved he has the goods, and Warren showed he had the ability to start and relieve. If you can get a middle of the pack prospect for Nova or even a project that has potential, take it.
How to fix the Starting Rotation:
1. Move to a 6-man rotation. I understand the science is against this. But I think we have a special need that makes it imperative for us to do this. Masahiro Tanaka is a ticking time bomb, we have to worry about over working him. Michael Pineda is a walking injury for at least a month a season. CC Sabathia is older, and even if he’s better historically on short rest, he isn’t the same guy who can riffle off 3-4 days rest and be an ace like he did in Milwaukee 7 years ago. Give the guy extra rest. Luis Severino to protect him his first year. Lately it seems like every rookie sensation has some problem in their first season because there is way too many innings being put on their arms. Let him ease into the rotation for a full season with 6 days rest rather than 5. Eovaldi is the only guy that this doesn’t matter to. 6 starters takes about 5-6 starts away from someone. That could be 30IP. Maybe it backfires, but if it does work out because 4 of the 6 guys need it, we come into the playoffs in 2016 with a fresh rotation.
2. Ivan Nova – Trade him for whatever you can get. We may regret it because he could become a great middle to back end starter, but we can always fill that role. If he stinks it up again, he hits the open market as a FA, and we get nothing for him because we won’t want him anymore. Try to get a young prospect who needs work, and maybe 5 years from now, you made a great deal.
3. We need a # 3 or better pitcher. You can make the back end strong enough with any combo of CC, Severino, Eovaldi, Warren, Nova, or even find cheap guys in the offseason or in trade. So I’m not worried about the back end of the rotation. The front end is weak. Not because Tanaka or Pineda are bad pitchers, it’s because they can end up on the DL at any time. And they may not be a quality # 1.
On the depressing side, it sounds like Cashman may be going with our current guys and is not looking at FA, which is a mistake when there are a few top end guys who don't have a draft pick attached. That is really unprecedented now.
Grade: B+
12-7 24G 3.51ERA 3.98FIP 154.0IP 60ER 25HR 27BB 139K .994WHIP 7.4H/9 1.5HR/9 1.6BB/9 8.1K/9 .221/.254/.420
Tanaka missed a month, he has us a nervous wreck every single start because we never know if this is the day, he’s done for 12-15 months. But overall, he actually had a good season, with the exception of 1 facet of his game. That is homeruns, his HR/9 increased from 1.0 to 1.5. From 15HRs in 136.1IP in 2014 to 25HRs in 154.0 IP in 2015. Luckily for us, he doesn’t allow a lot of people on base, so this really didn’t hurt us too much, but it still was a problem. Any time Tanaka made a mistake, it seemed like an automatic homerun. Just looking at his stats, if he kept the same HR/9 rate, he would have given up 7 less homeruns in 2015. Say 4 were solo shots, 2 were 2run HRs, and 1 was 3R HR. That’s 11 runs on Tanaka’s ledger, if you calculate his ERA without those 11 runs, he has a 2.86ERA, which is close enough to 2.77ERA in 2014. Across the board though, Tanaka was the same pitcher in 2015 that he was in 2014 (other variance was 1.3 less K/9). What needs to happen is he needs to keep his mistakes low in the zone. If you’re going to miss on the splitter, it needs to stay out of the middle. He left way too many mistakes up in the zone, and paid for it. Fortunately, with no runners on more often than not.
Michael Pineda
Grade: B-
12-10 27G 4.37ERA 3.34FIP 160.2IP 176H 78ER 21HR 21BB 156Ks 1.226WHIP 9.9H/9 1.2HR/9 1.2BB/9 8.7K/9 .278/.301/.451
The first two months, Michael Pineda was an ace. He was 6-2. Only walked 5 in 10 starts. Had over a K per inning. WHIP was about 1.10. He was reliable, and then the next 4 months, he was very inconsistent, and injured in August. It was like he had one good start then one bad start then a good start followed by a bad start. It became frustrating. Biggest problem it looks like, is the same problem Tanaka had. HRs. Went from 0.6 HR/9 in 2014 to 1.2HR/9 in 2015. Walks up from 0.8 per 9 to 1.2, but that is at least so insignificant that it doesn’t even matter. He threw 76 innings in 2014 only gave up 5 HRs, 160 in 2015 gave up 21 HRs. There’s at least 5 that he gave up that should have never happened due to lack of placement. Yes, missing a pitch happens, but it happened more often than ever for Pineda in June, July & September this season.
1. He needs to stay healthy. 2. He needs to stay consistent, needs to be able to find that offspeed and breaking stuff that makes him so difficult to hit.
Nathan Eovaldi
Grade: B-
14-3 27G 4.20ERA 3.42FIP 154.1IP 175H 72ER 10HR 49BB 121Ks 1.451WHIP 10.2H/9 0.6HR/9 2.9BB/9 7.1K/9 .285/.339/.377
Eovaldi pitched well, but I think his numbers are full of statistically anomalies. Of guys who pitched 120IP, he was 3rd in Run Support with 5.93. That is a ridiculous amount of runs, and a large reason why he was 14-3, and more specifically his total numbers do not depict a guy who was any better than a decent # 3, solid # 4. But credit where credit is due, he did not give up a bunch of home runs, also he really worked at his slider, which made him a different and more effective pitcher. There’s plenty of room for him to grow, so that is encouraging, and based on the FIP versus the ERA, he was hindered by the defense, but he also lucked out that the obscene amount of walks he gave up, did not end up as homeruns. Eovaldi can survive giving up 10.2 H/9, but he can’t continue surviving with almost 3 BB/9 because eventually that run support will crash to earth, and he then is reflected much more closer than who he is, than what his record looks like. I’d be curious, how many starts he’d lose if he pitched in September when we were hitting like Bernie Mac in Mr. 3000. Also an amazing stat, he only produces a 5.3% swing and miss in the strike zone, despite having the second highest Fastball Velocity of Starters with 100IP+ (96.7mph). To further clarify, Noah Syndergaard who had the highest fastball velocity for a starter at 97.1mp, had a 12.2% swinging strike %. CC who was throwing 90.1mph had 6.8% swinging strike. There’s very little movement on it based on the PITCHf/x data, and remains relatively straight. So he needs to get some movement on that fastball first off. I think this would explain why he’s got 10.2 H/9. Also he has a .360BABIP on his fastball. Add to the need to get that control under wraps. That will get the BB/9 under control, drop H/9 slightly, impact his ERA, and then he will be that much better of a pitcher.
C.C. Sabathia
Grade: C (Was turning it around come the end of the year, possibly because of the knee brace, but then was derailed by his personal issues)
6-10 29G 4.73 ERA 4.68FIP 167.1IP 188H 88ER 28HR 50BB 88ER 1.422 WHIP 10.1H/9 1.5 HR/9 2.7BB/9 7.4 K/9 .285/.338/.458
Just a look at CC shows that by the end of the year, he was coming around to becoming a quality middle of the rotation pitcher.. April – 5.96ERA, May – 5.45 ERA, June – 5.45ERA, July – 5.32, August-3.80ERA, September- 2.25ERA, October- 1.80ERA (1 start).
Let’s look at April versus September
4GS 25.2 IP 5.96ERA 31H 17ER 4HR 4BB 22Ks
4GS 24.0IP 2.25ERA 18H 6ER 2HR 10BB 21Ks
Yeah the walks spiked, but there is something different, perhaps it was the leg brace, it allowed him to be comfortable on the mound, and work counts, and get movement on his pitches, which is essential now that he’s a 91mph pitcher and not 95-96mph. Like stated in the Eovaldi part, he gets a pedestrian Swinging Strike Rate on fastballs, but that comes with throwing 90-91mph fastballs.
As I said last offseason, he needs to become more Andy Pettitte, it’s all about mixing pitches, and hitting your spots, you’re not blowing gas past anybody. On occasion, he can reach back and give you a 94mph, but that’s on pure aderenaline.
If he gets himself together, and is somewhere around what he was in August – the one start in October, we have a guy with big game experience, who is still better than most back end pitchers.
August – October
9GS 2-2 2.86ERA 50.1IP 16ER 45H 4HR 25BB 40Ks .243/.340/.346 .291BABIP
Just need to place those pitchers better, and you have the best you can get from an aging Former Ace.
Luis Severino
Grade: A
11G 5-3 2.89ERA 4.37FIP 20ER 53H 9HR 22BB 56Ks 1.203WHIP 7.7H/9 1.3HR/9 3.2BB/9 8.1K/9 .229/.302/.403
He looks like the real deal to me. He was confident, didn’t get rattled, was ready to step up, and was ready to pitch when his number was called. He has electric stuff, and a strikeout pitch in that slider. The only problem is clear, the walks are ridiculous. That’s why his FIP is 1.5 above his ERA. He walked way too many guys, he benefitted by not giving up too many hits, but he also did give up a lot of homeruns on the other end of that. A lot of homeruns + a lot of walks, could be a bad combo. He gets the benefit of the doubt because he was a midseason rookie. Just get a handle on the control, and he’ll be a front end starter by the time he’s 23 years old.
Ivan Nova
Grade: D
17G 6-11 5.07ERA 4.87FIP 53ER 99H 13HR 33BB 63Ks 1.40WHIP 9.5H/9 1.2HR/9 3.2BB/9 6.0K/9 .269/.339/.454
It’s a damn shame what happened to Nova, 2011 he was great, 2012 he slipped, but was not bad enough that you couldn’t see he had middle of the rotation stuff, 2013 he fully recovered had his best year, then wiped out in 2014 by Tommy John, and in 2015 showed some signs on rare occasions of being the same game, but more often he looked bad.
I’d take his last year of arbitration, and then trade him. He has no room here. It’s a shame because I really like Nova, but it was over once Severino came in and proved he has the goods, and Warren showed he had the ability to start and relieve. If you can get a middle of the pack prospect for Nova or even a project that has potential, take it.
How to fix the Starting Rotation:
1. Move to a 6-man rotation. I understand the science is against this. But I think we have a special need that makes it imperative for us to do this. Masahiro Tanaka is a ticking time bomb, we have to worry about over working him. Michael Pineda is a walking injury for at least a month a season. CC Sabathia is older, and even if he’s better historically on short rest, he isn’t the same guy who can riffle off 3-4 days rest and be an ace like he did in Milwaukee 7 years ago. Give the guy extra rest. Luis Severino to protect him his first year. Lately it seems like every rookie sensation has some problem in their first season because there is way too many innings being put on their arms. Let him ease into the rotation for a full season with 6 days rest rather than 5. Eovaldi is the only guy that this doesn’t matter to. 6 starters takes about 5-6 starts away from someone. That could be 30IP. Maybe it backfires, but if it does work out because 4 of the 6 guys need it, we come into the playoffs in 2016 with a fresh rotation.
2. Ivan Nova – Trade him for whatever you can get. We may regret it because he could become a great middle to back end starter, but we can always fill that role. If he stinks it up again, he hits the open market as a FA, and we get nothing for him because we won’t want him anymore. Try to get a young prospect who needs work, and maybe 5 years from now, you made a great deal.
3. We need a # 3 or better pitcher. You can make the back end strong enough with any combo of CC, Severino, Eovaldi, Warren, Nova, or even find cheap guys in the offseason or in trade. So I’m not worried about the back end of the rotation. The front end is weak. Not because Tanaka or Pineda are bad pitchers, it’s because they can end up on the DL at any time. And they may not be a quality # 1.
On the depressing side, it sounds like Cashman may be going with our current guys and is not looking at FA, which is a mistake when there are a few top end guys who don't have a draft pick attached. That is really unprecedented now.
Relievers:
Adam Warren:
Grade B (As reliever only because I don’t care about seeing him ever start again)
26G 35.1 IP 27H 9ER 9BB 37Ks 3Holds 1.02 WHIP 2.29 ERA 2.71 Defensive Independent ERA (FIP was harder to find with the splits)
6.8 H/9 2.29 BB/9 0.5 HR/9 9.42 K/9
Adam Warren is a decent back end starter, but we don’t and never need him to be that, that desperately. You can always find a back end starter in FA, and likely you’ll have one or two who are capable of being back end guys in AAA. Where he serves us much better is in the bullpen. As a long reliever, or a guy who pitches the 6th and occasionally the 7th.
I looked at every single stat, his WHIP, K/9, BB/9, H/9 and his ERA were all drastically better from the pen. We have Phil Hughes syndrome here. Keep him in the pen, unless you absolutely have no other choice.
.209 / .271 / .333 is pretty damn good considering as a starter, he’s .245 / .311 / .352. ERA is down 1.3 his DIP ERA is down 1.3 as well as a reliever.
He’s a quality # 5, an okay # 4, but as a long reliever or in the 6th or 7th, he’s completely different, he has enough modification in his pitch selection between his Fastball, Slider, Change & Curve that have decent mph differentials that makes him so much more difficult to hit if you see him for maybe 2 at bats in a whole season. He’s not breaking any records as a reliever, but if he’s your 5th best reliever, your bullpen is ridiculous.
Way too much flexibility in keeping Warren in the pen, where he’s a better pitcher, that we can’t make the same mistake by making him go back and forth that we did with Phil Hughes and Joba.
Justin Wilson:
Grade A-
74G 61.0 IP 49H 21ER 20BB 66Ks 29Holds 1.13WHIP 3.10 ERA 2.69 FIP 7.2H/9 0.4HR/9 2.97BB/9 9.7 K/9
Everyone’s favorite deceptively fat LOOGY. Hurt trading Cervelli for him because we all love Cervelli, and Cervelli was great this year, but we made out on the trade.
Threw his best K/9 of his career. And was in the Top 15 in WAR for reliever according to fan graphs (1.5), to accompany # 3 Dellin Betances (2.4) and # 7 Andrew Miller (2.0). Wilson’s biggest problem before being on NYY were Walks. Was at 4.5BB/9 in 2014 which is a level of bad that bad doesn’t even accurately describe it, was able to cut it down to under 3 this year. He does not give up homeruns, and only 6.8% of his flyballs are homers. Which, as a Lefty Reliever, normally facing lefties and at Yankee stadium for 81 games a year, that’s godly. Also you have to consider he is at a 0.84 GB to FB ratio, so he’s allowing a lot of Fly Balls, but keeps them in the park. He does that because all of his pitches has movement. His 96mph fastball has good movement, hitters are sub .200BA on his fastball. His sinker is a ground ball machine, 75% of balls put in play are ground balls on the sinker. His cutter drastically regressed, and was much easier to hit. According to Pinstripe Alley, his cutter was why the Yankees wanted him. So, if they get that fixed, he’ll have 3 pitches with a lot of movement that guys can’t get good contact on.
His slash line was .223 / .293 / .309. Really good numbers from him.
If he can continue on this path and keeps the good fastball and plus sinker and regains the cuter, our bullpen is even more unhittable. we have a solid weapon against lefties, and can even pitch the 7th, or give Dellin a rest in the 8th. Wilson – Dellin – Miller is the best 3-man combo of relievers, with only Royals having some contention.
Chasen Shreve:
Grade C+
59 G 58.1 IP 49H 33BB 29ER 10HR 64Ks 10Holds 1.41WHIP 3.09ERA 4.92 FIP 7.6H/9 1.5HR/9 5.1BB/9 9.9SO/9
Traded with David Carpenter for Manny Banuelos. A low risk trade since Banuelos was at the end of the rope as a prospect, despite being hyped 4-5 years ago. Shreve had a great 5 months, and had the season ended at the trade deadline, his grade would have been a A-/B+.
April – July:
36G 40.2IP 22H 15BB 8ER 3HR 43Ks 8Holds 1.77ERA .159/.247/.268 .9590WHIP .207BABIP
Including a 15 game stretch from May 24-July 1st where he didn’t give up a single run.
August – September:
23G 17.2IP 27H 18BB 12ER 7HR 21Ks 2Holds 6.11ERA .351 / .474 / .649 2.54WHIP .408BABIP
(These numbers are helped out by a bad, but okay August where his ERA went down, but he had a lot of walks and hits in August).
Those numbers could not be any more drastically different. No one knows what happened, they were just two drastically different pitchers. The Shreve for the first four months would make our bullpen unhittable, the Shreve from August & September means Dellin has to go another inning, when he’s gassed by this point in the season. McCann thought Shreve was tipping batters with his wrist that a fastball was coming, and that’s why he went to ****. Whatever it is, Shreve has to figure it out. One of the reasons we were not easily in the ALDS, rather than losing the play in wild card game is his sudden unreliability forcing more strain on the bullpen.
Dellin Betances:
Grade B+
74 G 84.0IP 45H 40BB 14ER 6HRs 131Ks 29Holds 9/13 SV 1.01 WHIP 1.50ERA 2.48 FIP 4.8 H/9 0.6 HR/9 4.3 BB/9 14.0 SO/9
Dellin had a great year, but died down at the end of the year on clear fatigue. His strike out pitch was a killer. He blew fastballs past top hitters, and that curveball was straight nasty. Not difficult to see why he & Miller became one of the best 8-9 punches in the league. But all season he had some trouble with his control. His BB% went up 5.1 points to 12% this year. He still was getting guys to miss the ball all over the place, he just happened to miss the zone by much larger margins that there were more easy takes. His curveball had a 51.4% swing and miss rate, 23.5% fouled off rate.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/p...rp=RP&month=&year=2015&pitch=CU&ds=ws&lim=200
But it still remains he still had a lot of trouble with control. 40 walks in 80 innings is a lot of walks. He normally could get out of it by striking out guys like it was nothing, but it’s playing with fire too much. Part of it is that he has gone to the curveball more this season than last year, but still almost a walk every 2 innings is bad.
Slash line is .157/.266/.244, average and SLG are within 20 points of last season, but OBP shot up 48 points. In 6 less innings, he had 16 more walks. That just shows that even despite having monster numbers, the walks hurt him.
Dell was T-4th in Holds with fellow Yankee Justin Wilson, but on the downside had the most walks as a reliever. On the bright side, had the most Ks to limit walk damage. His ERA was 3rd among relievers. His 14.04 K/9 was 3rd behind Andrew Miller. .244 BABIP was 26th. BAA he was 3rd behind Andrew Miller. Slugging he was 4th. 26th in OBP.
That aside, I think you could say you can’t ask anything else from him. He pitched in 74 games. And for the most part was reliable, even despite the split difference between Pre & Post ASG, he was still damn good even falling off in the 2nd Half. Girardi has got to give him more rest though, 84 innings is far too many.
The Yankees desperately need another stud in the bullpen to not only make the games shorter, but to provide some rest for Dellin & Miller.
Andrew Miller
Grade: A
60 G 61.2 IP 33H 20BB 14 ER 5HR 100SO 36/38 SV 0.859 WHIP 2.04ERA 2.16FIP
4.8 H/9 0.7 HR/9 2.9 BB/9 14.59 SO/9
Miller could not have really pitched any better. He was 3rd of all pitchers with 30 or more appearance of K/9 behind Carter Caps of Miami and Aroldis Chapman in Cincy. Hitters hit .151/.237/.239 on him. Best Average and Slg of his career, second best OBP. His biggest problem is his fastball, it’s got a ton of speed, but it doesn’t do much, but it isn’t a liability to him because of his best pitch. His slider is otherworldly though, 56% of his sliders were swing and misses. 23% were swings and a fouled off ( http://www.baseballprospectus.com/p...rp=RP&month=&year=2015&pitch=SL&ds=ws&lim=100 ). Only blew two saves. Pitched in 60 games.
His whip was T-3rd among relievers who pitched 40 innings. 2nd among relievers in opponent BAA, 5th in OBP and 2nd in SLG.
How he can improve: Not really sure he can. He wasn’t necessarily overworked only 6 times asked to pitch over 1 inning, 4 of them were extra innings. But he was occasionally brought in for non-save situations, which I get you don’t want him to get cold having a week+ rest, but sometimes it’s unnecessary. Yankees will need a righty who can slot into the 7th, and occasionally the 8th, where Dellin can get a few save opportunities to 100% make sure Miller stays fresh.
Overall Bullpen Grade: B+
We were one of the best 3 or 4 bullpens in the MLB, and the bullpen is a major reason we even ended up in the play-in game, but there was still some volatility on this roster from the bullpen, unfortunately some of it was our own fault. Dellin becoming gassed come late August hurt the effectiveness of the bullpen. Adam Warren being uncertain of his role. Chasen Shreve falling off a cliff in the last 2 months. Guys like Pindar, Capuano, Chris Martin, David Carpenter, Esmil Rodgers all hurt the effectiveness of the bullpen. But that’s neither here nor there because even the best bullpen has ineffective pitchers, the reason it’s not in the A’s and is a low B+ is because two major pitchers visibly struggled by the end of the season, and it cost us a few games that we needed.
How to fix the bullpen… By now, you’ve read that I want to move to a 6 man rotation, in order to help out Tanaka, Pineda, Severino & Sabathia to try and avoid injury, rookie innings load fatigue & injury. That means that we can only carry 6, possibly 7, depending on our hitters on the bench and their versatility in the field. But 6 is fine with me. Here’s how I would do it.
Long Reliever – Adam Warren. Do not move him from this role, do not make him a starter, let him be our safety guy. Things go wrong, we’re down 10-2 in the 3rd, Adam you need to give us 3 innings.
LOOGY1 – Justin Wilson. This would have been Chasen Shreve’s position, but he blew it. So Wilson is now our first lefty in the bullpen. Batting order 1-5 Lefties, are his. Also ask him for full innings here or there. He actually did better against RHH as well.
LOOGY2 – Chasen Shreve or Jacob Lindgren. I think it’s actually important to have 2 lefties in the middle innings at least for Yankee stadium sake. I still give Shreve the chance to redeem himself, he has a very short rope though. If he struggles noticeably, then Jacob Lindgren is now the LOOGY2, and you look for some place to trade Shreve because it’s over for him here.
Setup Man – Dellin Betances. We need Dellin in the 8th, it’s amazing how much more often the heart of the order comes up in the 8th as opposed to the 9th in the games I’ve watched. So I’d rather have the guy who throws harder, and has a ridiculous breaking pitch, who loves the spotlight, who wants these matchups in the 8th inning. I just don’t think Miller would be as good in the 8th. This is not a slight to Dellin, I think he’s as good as Miller, but I think the roles fit well here. Regardless, I’d pay Dellin closer money when he is officially a FA anyway.
Closer – Andrew Miller
Perfect fit, and did everything we needed.
What do we need… A right handed reliever who can eat innings, and is up for the high pressure situations of the 7th & occasionally 8th to give Dellin some rest throughout the year. Dellin pitched 84 innings, we could use someone who can take a significant chunk of his own innings and some from Dellin.
Grade B (As reliever only because I don’t care about seeing him ever start again)
26G 35.1 IP 27H 9ER 9BB 37Ks 3Holds 1.02 WHIP 2.29 ERA 2.71 Defensive Independent ERA (FIP was harder to find with the splits)
6.8 H/9 2.29 BB/9 0.5 HR/9 9.42 K/9
Adam Warren is a decent back end starter, but we don’t and never need him to be that, that desperately. You can always find a back end starter in FA, and likely you’ll have one or two who are capable of being back end guys in AAA. Where he serves us much better is in the bullpen. As a long reliever, or a guy who pitches the 6th and occasionally the 7th.
I looked at every single stat, his WHIP, K/9, BB/9, H/9 and his ERA were all drastically better from the pen. We have Phil Hughes syndrome here. Keep him in the pen, unless you absolutely have no other choice.
.209 / .271 / .333 is pretty damn good considering as a starter, he’s .245 / .311 / .352. ERA is down 1.3 his DIP ERA is down 1.3 as well as a reliever.
He’s a quality # 5, an okay # 4, but as a long reliever or in the 6th or 7th, he’s completely different, he has enough modification in his pitch selection between his Fastball, Slider, Change & Curve that have decent mph differentials that makes him so much more difficult to hit if you see him for maybe 2 at bats in a whole season. He’s not breaking any records as a reliever, but if he’s your 5th best reliever, your bullpen is ridiculous.
Way too much flexibility in keeping Warren in the pen, where he’s a better pitcher, that we can’t make the same mistake by making him go back and forth that we did with Phil Hughes and Joba.
Justin Wilson:
Grade A-
74G 61.0 IP 49H 21ER 20BB 66Ks 29Holds 1.13WHIP 3.10 ERA 2.69 FIP 7.2H/9 0.4HR/9 2.97BB/9 9.7 K/9
Everyone’s favorite deceptively fat LOOGY. Hurt trading Cervelli for him because we all love Cervelli, and Cervelli was great this year, but we made out on the trade.
Threw his best K/9 of his career. And was in the Top 15 in WAR for reliever according to fan graphs (1.5), to accompany # 3 Dellin Betances (2.4) and # 7 Andrew Miller (2.0). Wilson’s biggest problem before being on NYY were Walks. Was at 4.5BB/9 in 2014 which is a level of bad that bad doesn’t even accurately describe it, was able to cut it down to under 3 this year. He does not give up homeruns, and only 6.8% of his flyballs are homers. Which, as a Lefty Reliever, normally facing lefties and at Yankee stadium for 81 games a year, that’s godly. Also you have to consider he is at a 0.84 GB to FB ratio, so he’s allowing a lot of Fly Balls, but keeps them in the park. He does that because all of his pitches has movement. His 96mph fastball has good movement, hitters are sub .200BA on his fastball. His sinker is a ground ball machine, 75% of balls put in play are ground balls on the sinker. His cutter drastically regressed, and was much easier to hit. According to Pinstripe Alley, his cutter was why the Yankees wanted him. So, if they get that fixed, he’ll have 3 pitches with a lot of movement that guys can’t get good contact on.
His slash line was .223 / .293 / .309. Really good numbers from him.
If he can continue on this path and keeps the good fastball and plus sinker and regains the cuter, our bullpen is even more unhittable. we have a solid weapon against lefties, and can even pitch the 7th, or give Dellin a rest in the 8th. Wilson – Dellin – Miller is the best 3-man combo of relievers, with only Royals having some contention.
Chasen Shreve:
Grade C+
59 G 58.1 IP 49H 33BB 29ER 10HR 64Ks 10Holds 1.41WHIP 3.09ERA 4.92 FIP 7.6H/9 1.5HR/9 5.1BB/9 9.9SO/9
Traded with David Carpenter for Manny Banuelos. A low risk trade since Banuelos was at the end of the rope as a prospect, despite being hyped 4-5 years ago. Shreve had a great 5 months, and had the season ended at the trade deadline, his grade would have been a A-/B+.
April – July:
36G 40.2IP 22H 15BB 8ER 3HR 43Ks 8Holds 1.77ERA .159/.247/.268 .9590WHIP .207BABIP
Including a 15 game stretch from May 24-July 1st where he didn’t give up a single run.
August – September:
23G 17.2IP 27H 18BB 12ER 7HR 21Ks 2Holds 6.11ERA .351 / .474 / .649 2.54WHIP .408BABIP
(These numbers are helped out by a bad, but okay August where his ERA went down, but he had a lot of walks and hits in August).
Those numbers could not be any more drastically different. No one knows what happened, they were just two drastically different pitchers. The Shreve for the first four months would make our bullpen unhittable, the Shreve from August & September means Dellin has to go another inning, when he’s gassed by this point in the season. McCann thought Shreve was tipping batters with his wrist that a fastball was coming, and that’s why he went to ****. Whatever it is, Shreve has to figure it out. One of the reasons we were not easily in the ALDS, rather than losing the play in wild card game is his sudden unreliability forcing more strain on the bullpen.
Dellin Betances:
Grade B+
74 G 84.0IP 45H 40BB 14ER 6HRs 131Ks 29Holds 9/13 SV 1.01 WHIP 1.50ERA 2.48 FIP 4.8 H/9 0.6 HR/9 4.3 BB/9 14.0 SO/9
Dellin had a great year, but died down at the end of the year on clear fatigue. His strike out pitch was a killer. He blew fastballs past top hitters, and that curveball was straight nasty. Not difficult to see why he & Miller became one of the best 8-9 punches in the league. But all season he had some trouble with his control. His BB% went up 5.1 points to 12% this year. He still was getting guys to miss the ball all over the place, he just happened to miss the zone by much larger margins that there were more easy takes. His curveball had a 51.4% swing and miss rate, 23.5% fouled off rate.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/p...rp=RP&month=&year=2015&pitch=CU&ds=ws&lim=200
But it still remains he still had a lot of trouble with control. 40 walks in 80 innings is a lot of walks. He normally could get out of it by striking out guys like it was nothing, but it’s playing with fire too much. Part of it is that he has gone to the curveball more this season than last year, but still almost a walk every 2 innings is bad.
Slash line is .157/.266/.244, average and SLG are within 20 points of last season, but OBP shot up 48 points. In 6 less innings, he had 16 more walks. That just shows that even despite having monster numbers, the walks hurt him.
Dell was T-4th in Holds with fellow Yankee Justin Wilson, but on the downside had the most walks as a reliever. On the bright side, had the most Ks to limit walk damage. His ERA was 3rd among relievers. His 14.04 K/9 was 3rd behind Andrew Miller. .244 BABIP was 26th. BAA he was 3rd behind Andrew Miller. Slugging he was 4th. 26th in OBP.
That aside, I think you could say you can’t ask anything else from him. He pitched in 74 games. And for the most part was reliable, even despite the split difference between Pre & Post ASG, he was still damn good even falling off in the 2nd Half. Girardi has got to give him more rest though, 84 innings is far too many.
The Yankees desperately need another stud in the bullpen to not only make the games shorter, but to provide some rest for Dellin & Miller.
Andrew Miller
Grade: A
60 G 61.2 IP 33H 20BB 14 ER 5HR 100SO 36/38 SV 0.859 WHIP 2.04ERA 2.16FIP
4.8 H/9 0.7 HR/9 2.9 BB/9 14.59 SO/9
Miller could not have really pitched any better. He was 3rd of all pitchers with 30 or more appearance of K/9 behind Carter Caps of Miami and Aroldis Chapman in Cincy. Hitters hit .151/.237/.239 on him. Best Average and Slg of his career, second best OBP. His biggest problem is his fastball, it’s got a ton of speed, but it doesn’t do much, but it isn’t a liability to him because of his best pitch. His slider is otherworldly though, 56% of his sliders were swing and misses. 23% were swings and a fouled off ( http://www.baseballprospectus.com/p...rp=RP&month=&year=2015&pitch=SL&ds=ws&lim=100 ). Only blew two saves. Pitched in 60 games.
His whip was T-3rd among relievers who pitched 40 innings. 2nd among relievers in opponent BAA, 5th in OBP and 2nd in SLG.
How he can improve: Not really sure he can. He wasn’t necessarily overworked only 6 times asked to pitch over 1 inning, 4 of them were extra innings. But he was occasionally brought in for non-save situations, which I get you don’t want him to get cold having a week+ rest, but sometimes it’s unnecessary. Yankees will need a righty who can slot into the 7th, and occasionally the 8th, where Dellin can get a few save opportunities to 100% make sure Miller stays fresh.
Overall Bullpen Grade: B+
We were one of the best 3 or 4 bullpens in the MLB, and the bullpen is a major reason we even ended up in the play-in game, but there was still some volatility on this roster from the bullpen, unfortunately some of it was our own fault. Dellin becoming gassed come late August hurt the effectiveness of the bullpen. Adam Warren being uncertain of his role. Chasen Shreve falling off a cliff in the last 2 months. Guys like Pindar, Capuano, Chris Martin, David Carpenter, Esmil Rodgers all hurt the effectiveness of the bullpen. But that’s neither here nor there because even the best bullpen has ineffective pitchers, the reason it’s not in the A’s and is a low B+ is because two major pitchers visibly struggled by the end of the season, and it cost us a few games that we needed.
How to fix the bullpen… By now, you’ve read that I want to move to a 6 man rotation, in order to help out Tanaka, Pineda, Severino & Sabathia to try and avoid injury, rookie innings load fatigue & injury. That means that we can only carry 6, possibly 7, depending on our hitters on the bench and their versatility in the field. But 6 is fine with me. Here’s how I would do it.
Long Reliever – Adam Warren. Do not move him from this role, do not make him a starter, let him be our safety guy. Things go wrong, we’re down 10-2 in the 3rd, Adam you need to give us 3 innings.
LOOGY1 – Justin Wilson. This would have been Chasen Shreve’s position, but he blew it. So Wilson is now our first lefty in the bullpen. Batting order 1-5 Lefties, are his. Also ask him for full innings here or there. He actually did better against RHH as well.
LOOGY2 – Chasen Shreve or Jacob Lindgren. I think it’s actually important to have 2 lefties in the middle innings at least for Yankee stadium sake. I still give Shreve the chance to redeem himself, he has a very short rope though. If he struggles noticeably, then Jacob Lindgren is now the LOOGY2, and you look for some place to trade Shreve because it’s over for him here.
Setup Man – Dellin Betances. We need Dellin in the 8th, it’s amazing how much more often the heart of the order comes up in the 8th as opposed to the 9th in the games I’ve watched. So I’d rather have the guy who throws harder, and has a ridiculous breaking pitch, who loves the spotlight, who wants these matchups in the 8th inning. I just don’t think Miller would be as good in the 8th. This is not a slight to Dellin, I think he’s as good as Miller, but I think the roles fit well here. Regardless, I’d pay Dellin closer money when he is officially a FA anyway.
Closer – Andrew Miller
Perfect fit, and did everything we needed.
What do we need… A right handed reliever who can eat innings, and is up for the high pressure situations of the 7th & occasionally 8th to give Dellin some rest throughout the year. Dellin pitched 84 innings, we could use someone who can take a significant chunk of his own innings and some from Dellin.
Catcher:
Brian McCann
Grade: B+
135G .232/.320/.437 465AB 108H 68R 15 2B 26HR 94RBI 52BB 97K 2.7WAR
Out of Catchers with 300 Plate Appearances
1st in HR…2nd in RBI…3rd in Runs.. 5th in BB…11th OBP… 6th SLG… 5th WAR.. 3rd in Runs Created.. 3rd in ISOP (Isolate Power).. 6th in BB/PA…
A really good bounce back year. His average stayed the same from 2014 to 2015, but I don’t think he’s ever going to hit for average, the shift takes away at least a dozen or so hits from him, and it’s easy to say bunt it down 3rd, but nobody is gonna be fooled by that nonsense. On the other hand while his average stayed the same, his OBP went up 34 points, and his slugging went up 31 points. All around McCann was the 2nd best offensive Catcher in baseball behind Posey, and ahead of Russell Martin, and Stephen Voght. He came in drove in runs when runners were on, and hit the ball out like we all thought he could in Yankee stadium.
McCann struck out 30 more times, but walked 20 more times in 30 less at-bats, it looks like with ARod, Teix most of the season, they pitched him more carefully and he was much more selective at the plater.
McCann’s frame ability has decreased from one of the best in the league to middle of the pack. On the other end, McCann still calls a great game, and knows how to work to a pitchers strength. He knows how to mix up pitches, and where to locate it. Also he has turned himself into one of the best caught stealing catchers in the league. Second straight year at 36% or more after having most of his career at the low 20% caught stealing rate. In a result of this, runners are stealing on him far less. Not sure what’s different, maybe just figured out a way to get the ball out quicker.
The reason his grade is not in the A’s, where I think it should be is because over the last 3 months, he batted .201/.306/.402 14HR 45RBIs compared to a April-June .265/.335/.473 12HR 49RBIs. The power translated all season, but the contract wasn’t there in the 2nd half, but I guess you can say that about every single Yankee except Didi I think.
John Ryan Murphy
Grade: B
67G 155AB 43H 9 2B .277/.327/.406 3HR 14RBI 12BB 43K
A pleasant surprise this season. I was fully expecting McCann to get injured and then have to live with a .200 batting JR Murphy. But he actually looked like a quality contact hitter. He gets a solid bat on the ball, and looks for his pitch.
He calls a solid game as well. Doesn’t throw out many guys 8/29 CS for 28%, which isn’t bad, but there wasn’t too much of a down turn behind the plate defensively when McCann was resting.
All I need from John Ryan besides his maple syrup recipes is a bit more power in his bat.
That moves us on to Gary Sanchez. I know we all want to see him play in the bigs. But I’d see what I could get out of him. If you can get a top flight prospect in return in a position of need, I’d consider trading him.
Why?
1. McCann shows he’s still a top 2-3 catcher in the bigs.
2. McCann has 4 more years left on his deal (4th year vesting option), he’s 32 now, but just off the basis of how well he played this season, he has what, 3 productive seasons behind the plate under his belt.
Sanchez is about to be 23 before this season starts.
3. There is a belief that Gary Sanchez cannot be an every day Catcher in the big leagues, and will have to be moved to 1st Base. He has a strong arm, but has trouble catching and blocking balls. If he needs to move to 1st Base, that’s a big problem because Teix has 1 more season, and Greg Bird looks like a stud.
4. Luis Torrens is 2-1/2 years younger, is a great defensive catcher, hits for as much contact, and has some pop in his bat.
Again if you’re not getting a top prospect elsewhere, then no deal, keep Gary Sanchez. But if you can get a top prospect for him, I think maybe you need to do it considering McCann is blocking him for a few seasons, and Torrens is right behind him, and has the time to wait around, develop and still have plenty of years ahead.
Perhaps the double edged sword is Gary Sanchez was a damn monster in AA & AAA, so it may be a bad idea to let him go.
So I guess my position is see if there is an offer too big to refuse for him. If there isn’t, then you keep him. Give him a FULL year in AAA, he doesn’t get called up unless we absolutely need him in the majors. Let him learn what he needs to learn defensively. If he doesn’t progress behind the plate, then you trade him before the 2017 season because we just have no place for him if he can’t be behind the plate. If he does progress, then in 2017, he’s the backup, with hope that in 2018 he starts. I guess on the bright side Jorge Posada wasn’t even really on the roster until 25.
By that time Luis Torrens should be looking to get the call up as well, and we’ll have homegrown guys everyday behind the plate.
Grade: B+
135G .232/.320/.437 465AB 108H 68R 15 2B 26HR 94RBI 52BB 97K 2.7WAR
Out of Catchers with 300 Plate Appearances
1st in HR…2nd in RBI…3rd in Runs.. 5th in BB…11th OBP… 6th SLG… 5th WAR.. 3rd in Runs Created.. 3rd in ISOP (Isolate Power).. 6th in BB/PA…
A really good bounce back year. His average stayed the same from 2014 to 2015, but I don’t think he’s ever going to hit for average, the shift takes away at least a dozen or so hits from him, and it’s easy to say bunt it down 3rd, but nobody is gonna be fooled by that nonsense. On the other hand while his average stayed the same, his OBP went up 34 points, and his slugging went up 31 points. All around McCann was the 2nd best offensive Catcher in baseball behind Posey, and ahead of Russell Martin, and Stephen Voght. He came in drove in runs when runners were on, and hit the ball out like we all thought he could in Yankee stadium.
McCann struck out 30 more times, but walked 20 more times in 30 less at-bats, it looks like with ARod, Teix most of the season, they pitched him more carefully and he was much more selective at the plater.
McCann’s frame ability has decreased from one of the best in the league to middle of the pack. On the other end, McCann still calls a great game, and knows how to work to a pitchers strength. He knows how to mix up pitches, and where to locate it. Also he has turned himself into one of the best caught stealing catchers in the league. Second straight year at 36% or more after having most of his career at the low 20% caught stealing rate. In a result of this, runners are stealing on him far less. Not sure what’s different, maybe just figured out a way to get the ball out quicker.
The reason his grade is not in the A’s, where I think it should be is because over the last 3 months, he batted .201/.306/.402 14HR 45RBIs compared to a April-June .265/.335/.473 12HR 49RBIs. The power translated all season, but the contract wasn’t there in the 2nd half, but I guess you can say that about every single Yankee except Didi I think.
John Ryan Murphy
Grade: B
67G 155AB 43H 9 2B .277/.327/.406 3HR 14RBI 12BB 43K
A pleasant surprise this season. I was fully expecting McCann to get injured and then have to live with a .200 batting JR Murphy. But he actually looked like a quality contact hitter. He gets a solid bat on the ball, and looks for his pitch.
He calls a solid game as well. Doesn’t throw out many guys 8/29 CS for 28%, which isn’t bad, but there wasn’t too much of a down turn behind the plate defensively when McCann was resting.
All I need from John Ryan besides his maple syrup recipes is a bit more power in his bat.
That moves us on to Gary Sanchez. I know we all want to see him play in the bigs. But I’d see what I could get out of him. If you can get a top flight prospect in return in a position of need, I’d consider trading him.
Why?
1. McCann shows he’s still a top 2-3 catcher in the bigs.
2. McCann has 4 more years left on his deal (4th year vesting option), he’s 32 now, but just off the basis of how well he played this season, he has what, 3 productive seasons behind the plate under his belt.
Sanchez is about to be 23 before this season starts.
3. There is a belief that Gary Sanchez cannot be an every day Catcher in the big leagues, and will have to be moved to 1st Base. He has a strong arm, but has trouble catching and blocking balls. If he needs to move to 1st Base, that’s a big problem because Teix has 1 more season, and Greg Bird looks like a stud.
4. Luis Torrens is 2-1/2 years younger, is a great defensive catcher, hits for as much contact, and has some pop in his bat.
Again if you’re not getting a top prospect elsewhere, then no deal, keep Gary Sanchez. But if you can get a top prospect for him, I think maybe you need to do it considering McCann is blocking him for a few seasons, and Torrens is right behind him, and has the time to wait around, develop and still have plenty of years ahead.
Perhaps the double edged sword is Gary Sanchez was a damn monster in AA & AAA, so it may be a bad idea to let him go.
So I guess my position is see if there is an offer too big to refuse for him. If there isn’t, then you keep him. Give him a FULL year in AAA, he doesn’t get called up unless we absolutely need him in the majors. Let him learn what he needs to learn defensively. If he doesn’t progress behind the plate, then you trade him before the 2017 season because we just have no place for him if he can’t be behind the plate. If he does progress, then in 2017, he’s the backup, with hope that in 2018 he starts. I guess on the bright side Jorge Posada wasn’t even really on the roster until 25.
By that time Luis Torrens should be looking to get the call up as well, and we’ll have homegrown guys everyday behind the plate.
First Baseman:
Mark Teixeira
Grade: B+
111G .255/.357/.548 31HR 79RBI 59BB 85K 392 AB 100H 22 2B
Great season by Mark, but unfortunately, he did what he always does, get injured. His average, his OBP got more inline with his career totals (.272/.364), and certainly better than the .216/.313 of last season. Teix had great power, and was actually getting better as the year went on, but then in August hit a 2 week slump, and then go injured, and out for the season. How a bruise became a break is beyond me, and still defies my logic.
He was still a very good defender, no longer great because age and injuries has taken away his range, but he was very good at picking balls in the dirt, and playing with the range he still has.
He just needs to rest, come back healthy (or whatever healthy is for him) and take the same approach he had this year. He didn’t see more pitches per at-bat, but he was very good at laying off ****, and crushing mistakes, which he couldn’t do in 2013 and 2014, likely because of his wrist.
Next year, he needs to be given a target number of games, 120 works in my mind, and he is not allowed to go over. It gives him adequate playing time, and adequate rest as well.
It should be 80 games at 1B, 40 games at DH (could take more from one and give it to the other, if injuries occurs)
The other 82 games are given to the next guy…
Greg Bird
Grade: A-
46G .261/.343/.529 11HR 31RBIs 19BB 53Ks 157 AB 41H 9 2B
Another pleasant surprise. I thought once Teix went down that the season was over. Didn’t think all the guys who were slumping could handle holding on to the Wild Card with a big bat out for the season.
But enter Greg Bird, who looked great. He has great power. He is patient, brings decent contact, and appears un-phased by high pressure situations. If you were to extrapolate Greg Bird’s 46 games into 111 that Mark Teixeira played, you end up with this stat line.
Bird
.261 / .343 / .529 379AB 98H 26HR 79RBIs 21 2B 46BB 128K
Teix
.255 / .357 / .548 392AB 100H 31HR 79RBI 22 2B 59BB 85K
According to Fan Graphs, Bird’s weight runs created + (wRc+) of 137 would have put him 10th among 1B with 300Pas.
His .319 BABIP put him T-12th among 1B with 300Pas. About 70 points better than Teixeira.
Bird also uses the field more, 41% pull to Teix 55% pull, and 23% opposite field to Teix 15%. 86% of the time his bat touches the ball it is medium or hard hit, Teix was at about 83.4%. Also Bird also gets the ball in the air much more than Teix 51% to 42%, Teix 38% GB to Birds 27%.
So Bird was more than effective in replacing Teixeira, and looks like the new 1B of the future, but there is some issues he has to fix. While Bird shows a great ability to work the count, and allow the pitcher to throw pitches, he can be too passive. He struck out about 3 every 10 at-bats. That’s a significant amount. In comparison only 5 guys in the majors had a 29% or higher K rate (Joc Pederson, Ian Desmond, Kris Bryant, Michael Taylor (Nats), Chris Davis). There’s a difference between being patient, and waiting too long that you end up putting yourself at disadvantage. In comparison, Bird’s 29.8 K% and 10.7 B% does not compare favorably to Teix’s 18.4 K% 12.8 BB%. Bird has to look at being patient, but fighting off pitches as well. Get that K% in the low 20s, and you’ll see his Average and OBP go up because he does work the count, and he does know how to stay patient. He just needs to get a better eye.
Also, Bird needs to improve as a fielder. He wasn’t bad in all reality, but he still needs to improve his range, and polish getting the ball at first. Something Teix needs to take Bird under his wing * rim shot * to help him along in the field.
It sucks that Bird will not be an everyday player, but after Teix’s season it’s hard to take that away from Teix. So as I suggested what we can do is get Bird 82 games at 1B through days resting Teix, or days Teix is only the DH. Then it’s easy to say we can get 10 games from him pinch hitting for interleague games. That should give him around 330 plate appearances, not the 500-600+ that an everyday guy gets, but it’s still a significant amount.
Grade: B+
111G .255/.357/.548 31HR 79RBI 59BB 85K 392 AB 100H 22 2B
Great season by Mark, but unfortunately, he did what he always does, get injured. His average, his OBP got more inline with his career totals (.272/.364), and certainly better than the .216/.313 of last season. Teix had great power, and was actually getting better as the year went on, but then in August hit a 2 week slump, and then go injured, and out for the season. How a bruise became a break is beyond me, and still defies my logic.
He was still a very good defender, no longer great because age and injuries has taken away his range, but he was very good at picking balls in the dirt, and playing with the range he still has.
He just needs to rest, come back healthy (or whatever healthy is for him) and take the same approach he had this year. He didn’t see more pitches per at-bat, but he was very good at laying off ****, and crushing mistakes, which he couldn’t do in 2013 and 2014, likely because of his wrist.
Next year, he needs to be given a target number of games, 120 works in my mind, and he is not allowed to go over. It gives him adequate playing time, and adequate rest as well.
It should be 80 games at 1B, 40 games at DH (could take more from one and give it to the other, if injuries occurs)
The other 82 games are given to the next guy…
Greg Bird
Grade: A-
46G .261/.343/.529 11HR 31RBIs 19BB 53Ks 157 AB 41H 9 2B
Another pleasant surprise. I thought once Teix went down that the season was over. Didn’t think all the guys who were slumping could handle holding on to the Wild Card with a big bat out for the season.
But enter Greg Bird, who looked great. He has great power. He is patient, brings decent contact, and appears un-phased by high pressure situations. If you were to extrapolate Greg Bird’s 46 games into 111 that Mark Teixeira played, you end up with this stat line.
Bird
.261 / .343 / .529 379AB 98H 26HR 79RBIs 21 2B 46BB 128K
Teix
.255 / .357 / .548 392AB 100H 31HR 79RBI 22 2B 59BB 85K
According to Fan Graphs, Bird’s weight runs created + (wRc+) of 137 would have put him 10th among 1B with 300Pas.
His .319 BABIP put him T-12th among 1B with 300Pas. About 70 points better than Teixeira.
Bird also uses the field more, 41% pull to Teix 55% pull, and 23% opposite field to Teix 15%. 86% of the time his bat touches the ball it is medium or hard hit, Teix was at about 83.4%. Also Bird also gets the ball in the air much more than Teix 51% to 42%, Teix 38% GB to Birds 27%.
So Bird was more than effective in replacing Teixeira, and looks like the new 1B of the future, but there is some issues he has to fix. While Bird shows a great ability to work the count, and allow the pitcher to throw pitches, he can be too passive. He struck out about 3 every 10 at-bats. That’s a significant amount. In comparison only 5 guys in the majors had a 29% or higher K rate (Joc Pederson, Ian Desmond, Kris Bryant, Michael Taylor (Nats), Chris Davis). There’s a difference between being patient, and waiting too long that you end up putting yourself at disadvantage. In comparison, Bird’s 29.8 K% and 10.7 B% does not compare favorably to Teix’s 18.4 K% 12.8 BB%. Bird has to look at being patient, but fighting off pitches as well. Get that K% in the low 20s, and you’ll see his Average and OBP go up because he does work the count, and he does know how to stay patient. He just needs to get a better eye.
Also, Bird needs to improve as a fielder. He wasn’t bad in all reality, but he still needs to improve his range, and polish getting the ball at first. Something Teix needs to take Bird under his wing * rim shot * to help him along in the field.
It sucks that Bird will not be an everyday player, but after Teix’s season it’s hard to take that away from Teix. So as I suggested what we can do is get Bird 82 games at 1B through days resting Teix, or days Teix is only the DH. Then it’s easy to say we can get 10 games from him pinch hitting for interleague games. That should give him around 330 plate appearances, not the 500-600+ that an everyday guy gets, but it’s still a significant amount.
Second Base:
Stephen Drew
Grade: He really stinks. On offense, and now apparently defense as well.
Let’s move on.
Grade: He really stinks. On offense, and now apparently defense as well.
Let’s move on.
Third Base:
Chase Headley
Grade: D
156G .259/.324/.369 580AB 150H 74R 29 2B 11HR 62RBI 51BB 135Ks
23Errors at 3B
In the offseason, everybody seemed to be on board with bringing back Headley, he had a Brosius feel to him. Not the hitter for average that Brosius was when he was here, but the same kind of pop, and was a good glove.
Headley came back and pretty much lost everything. Even his glove, and that was supposed to be a sure thing.
Looking at his fangraph stats, he went down on hard hit balls from 35.8% to 27.8% and up in soft hits from 11.5% to 17.4%. That has to account for some XBHs, homeruns, and average. And that is including his abysmal .229 / .296 / .355 in San Diego last year.
His time with the Yankees in only a couple of months in 2014 was a much different than what we got in 2015. He was .262 / .371 / .398 . He hit fine average wise, but he wasn’t getting on base, and was lacking some gap to gap and homer power.
For a guy whose batting 6th or 7th in a lineup, it’s not horrible what he did as a hitter, but it also was below what we know Headley can do. We need to get mid .260s BA, at worst .360 OBP, and .380+ SLG with 15-20HR, 70-80RBIs. Anything less than that is a let down for what we get in Headley.
Headley was 21st, 18th, 29th among 3B with 300 PA in Avg / OBP / SLG. 24th in HR. 18th in RBIs. T-6 in BB, 6th in Ks. 27th WAR.
Then when you factor that he all of a sudden became below average in the field, we are in for a long 3 seasons of this contract.
People are saying it’s that he is playing too much, but if that’s the case, then A-Rod needs to play once a week at 3B. That’s the only way you can do it. Zobrist can’t do it, and don’t think it’s worth paying him for it, Ackley can’t do it. Refsnyder can’t. So either Headley gets down to 140 games at 3B, and A-Rod 20 or so. Whenever A-Rod plays a game at 3B, you then rest him the next game, or rest him the game before it. His preference.
Grade: D
156G .259/.324/.369 580AB 150H 74R 29 2B 11HR 62RBI 51BB 135Ks
23Errors at 3B
In the offseason, everybody seemed to be on board with bringing back Headley, he had a Brosius feel to him. Not the hitter for average that Brosius was when he was here, but the same kind of pop, and was a good glove.
Headley came back and pretty much lost everything. Even his glove, and that was supposed to be a sure thing.
Looking at his fangraph stats, he went down on hard hit balls from 35.8% to 27.8% and up in soft hits from 11.5% to 17.4%. That has to account for some XBHs, homeruns, and average. And that is including his abysmal .229 / .296 / .355 in San Diego last year.
His time with the Yankees in only a couple of months in 2014 was a much different than what we got in 2015. He was .262 / .371 / .398 . He hit fine average wise, but he wasn’t getting on base, and was lacking some gap to gap and homer power.
For a guy whose batting 6th or 7th in a lineup, it’s not horrible what he did as a hitter, but it also was below what we know Headley can do. We need to get mid .260s BA, at worst .360 OBP, and .380+ SLG with 15-20HR, 70-80RBIs. Anything less than that is a let down for what we get in Headley.
Headley was 21st, 18th, 29th among 3B with 300 PA in Avg / OBP / SLG. 24th in HR. 18th in RBIs. T-6 in BB, 6th in Ks. 27th WAR.
Then when you factor that he all of a sudden became below average in the field, we are in for a long 3 seasons of this contract.
People are saying it’s that he is playing too much, but if that’s the case, then A-Rod needs to play once a week at 3B. That’s the only way you can do it. Zobrist can’t do it, and don’t think it’s worth paying him for it, Ackley can’t do it. Refsnyder can’t. So either Headley gets down to 140 games at 3B, and A-Rod 20 or so. Whenever A-Rod plays a game at 3B, you then rest him the next game, or rest him the game before it. His preference.
Shortstop:
Didi Gregorius
Grade: B-
155G .265/.318/.370 525AB 139H 57R 24 2B 9HR 56RBI 33BB 85Ks
His grade was much much lower with the first few months, but as he settled down, and stopped worrying about the Jeter spotlight, he ended up becoming our best all around player on the field. After the All-Star Break he hit .294/.345/.417. He started putting his name with the other young SS coming up. I’d love to see him get a little more pop in his bat being a lefty in Yankee Stadium, but his approach drastically improved as he settled down.
Just like at the bat, he started off slow in the field. But once he got going, he was damn impressive as a Shortstop. But, this shouldn’t be surprising, his game was always predicated about being a very good fielder. He has a damn cannon at Short, and makes plenty of plays that the good shortstops can’t even make. If he can keep himself consistent for a full season, year in and year out into his early 30s, I think he has a couple Gold Gloves in his future.
As bad as everyone hated him in the first few months (myself excluded since I’ve always went to bat for him), he ended the seasons as the smallest question mark in the whole lineup.
Grade: B-
155G .265/.318/.370 525AB 139H 57R 24 2B 9HR 56RBI 33BB 85Ks
His grade was much much lower with the first few months, but as he settled down, and stopped worrying about the Jeter spotlight, he ended up becoming our best all around player on the field. After the All-Star Break he hit .294/.345/.417. He started putting his name with the other young SS coming up. I’d love to see him get a little more pop in his bat being a lefty in Yankee Stadium, but his approach drastically improved as he settled down.
Just like at the bat, he started off slow in the field. But once he got going, he was damn impressive as a Shortstop. But, this shouldn’t be surprising, his game was always predicated about being a very good fielder. He has a damn cannon at Short, and makes plenty of plays that the good shortstops can’t even make. If he can keep himself consistent for a full season, year in and year out into his early 30s, I think he has a couple Gold Gloves in his future.
As bad as everyone hated him in the first few months (myself excluded since I’ve always went to bat for him), he ended the seasons as the smallest question mark in the whole lineup.
Designated Hitter:
Alex Rodriguez
Grade: B+/A-
151G .250/.356/.486 523 AB 131H 83R 22 2B 33HR 86RBI 84BB 145K
We got probably double what we expected from A-Rod this season. But the reason he’s not an A is that he faded in the second half, and he has no versatility to us. It’s unlikely, but he needs to get in a game a week at 3B. To rest Headley, to give us more games at DH for Beltran & Teix, which would allow Bird to play more, and even provide us enough games to chase Jason Heyward or Justin Upton. It’s absolutely imperative that Alex does this. Cashman won’t allow it, but it’s the best thing to give us a better team. I’d also limit A-Rod to 120 games. Just like I would with Teix & Beltran. He’ll likely end up with more when you factor in PH opportunities, but 120 full games. He needs that rest, he also suffered the second half slump. Hitting .216 / .324 / .448. You could give him a rest before or after 3B games, which ever he prefers. This will be a one year thing, once Beltran is gone, and once Teix is gone after this year, then he goes back to every day DH for his final season, and passing the Babe.
Grade: B+/A-
151G .250/.356/.486 523 AB 131H 83R 22 2B 33HR 86RBI 84BB 145K
We got probably double what we expected from A-Rod this season. But the reason he’s not an A is that he faded in the second half, and he has no versatility to us. It’s unlikely, but he needs to get in a game a week at 3B. To rest Headley, to give us more games at DH for Beltran & Teix, which would allow Bird to play more, and even provide us enough games to chase Jason Heyward or Justin Upton. It’s absolutely imperative that Alex does this. Cashman won’t allow it, but it’s the best thing to give us a better team. I’d also limit A-Rod to 120 games. Just like I would with Teix & Beltran. He’ll likely end up with more when you factor in PH opportunities, but 120 full games. He needs that rest, he also suffered the second half slump. Hitting .216 / .324 / .448. You could give him a rest before or after 3B games, which ever he prefers. This will be a one year thing, once Beltran is gone, and once Teix is gone after this year, then he goes back to every day DH for his final season, and passing the Babe.
Outfield:
I’ve had some time to think about this, and I think it is time to blow it up. And by blow it up, I mean the whole thing. I think Ellsbury will be tough to trade, but he’s also the last person I would trade out of the 3. But if a team came up to us, and said we’ll take 80% of Ellsbury’s remaining salary, I’d take it in a heartbeat, not because I don’t think Ellsbury isn’t good anymore, but I think it may be time to get everyone out of here. Also hopefully Ellsbury would wave his no trade for that place. Chicago? I’m looking at you.
Gardner, I’d trade for a mid to upper tier prospect.
Beltran, I’d trade to a contending team, and tell him look, you did great, but if you want to play every day, we can’t guarantee it with how our roster is constructed. We’re looking to get you to an AL team that can get you to play DH. And if you kill us all season next year, so be it. We appreciate you for choosing us, and trying to get us a World Series, but it isn’t looking likely next year, so we’re going to try and do you a solid.
Chris Young is fine as a 4th OF, and is deadly against lefties, but I’d move on. He also deserves a multi-year contract anyway.
Carlos Beltran
Grade: C (B+ for batting, F for what he did in the field. I’m weighing his offense higher, just because of how old he is).
133G .276/.337/.471 478AB 132H 34 2B 19HR 67RBI 45 BB 85K
Carlos Beltran as a DH next year, I’d welcome him back with open arms. But as we know Alex Rodriguez is our DH going forward. Carlos started off slow, but over the last 3-4 months was our best hitter. Had big hit after big hit. He fell in line with his career averages, with a little drop off (he’s 38 for Christ sake). That just shows how hot he was. Actually if you look at just post-All Star he was better than his career averages. If he’s back next year, and keeps this up, then great. But like Ichiro when he had that ridiculously hot second half when first traded here, you can’t count on a 35+ year old to carry that over.
What pissed me off was his effort in the field. Yeah I get it, he’s 38 years old. He’s no longer what he was in the field. But he’s lost it all. Plenty of times, it looked like he’s just jogging out there chasing after the ball in the gap.
Under the right circumstance, it’d work right for us. He’d be our DH. But A-Rod, Teix, Bird (impacts Beltran), where does Beltran fit?
As our everyday RF? Nah I don’t think it can work again. If we want to make the playoffs. If we are just conceding the season? Which I think we may have to, depending on our aggressiveness in this offseason. Then fine.
The Royals could use him in all honesty still. Could split DH with Kendrys Morales, and play OF without much problem for the Royals because their RF production was so bad offensively, it would work for them. He had interest going there before he chose us, they had interest in him. With his hot 2nd Half, may be nice to get their reunion especially if they can make a serious contention.
Brett Gardner
Grade: C+
151G .259/.343/.399 571AB 148H 26 2B 3 3B 16HR 66RBI 68BB 135K 20/25 SB
First half, absolutely beautiful. .302/.377/.484 10HR 42RBI 15/18SB. He along with Ellsbury, the first couple of months was a huge reason why we were leading the division for most of the season. After the All Star Break .206/.300/.292 6HR 24RBI 5/7SB. At least with Ellsbury, there was an injury, with Gardner, he just fell off a cliff. If you want context, Stephen Drew was .235/.297/.397 in the Second Half. Gardner cooling off really hurt us, and took us from a commanding First Place lead to barely making the playoffs.
His defense regressed in the season, but he was such a strong fielder that he could still recover, and be good.
In all honesty, I would trade him. Take a mid-level prospect for him, and deal with the consequence of trading him now. Or give him a season to figure it out. But if he fades again in the 2nd half, it happened last year pretty bad as well, then we can’t afford to keep him.
On the worst case, because he’s only making about $36mil over the next 3 seasons, he becomes a 4th OF, with versatility in Year 2-3. We could live with that.
Jacoby Ellsbury
Grade: C-
111G .257/.318/.345 452AB 116H 66R 15 2B 2 3B 7HR 33RBI 35BB 86K 21/30SB
Like Brett Gardner, Ellsbury started off like a monster. The first 40 games of the season, Ellsbury was hitting .324/.412/.372 with a .379BABIP. But then he got injured, missed the second quarter of the season, came back and hit .224/.269/.332, which is around what Gardner did in the 2nd half. Ellsbury has the excuse of an injury, Gardner doesn’t. I guess it’s all about getting him rest, and maybe capping his games. But honestly, I couldn’t tell you. He was still pretty good tracking down the ball.
What pissed me off most about Ellsbury & Gardner alike, is that Joe just all of a sudden decided that he was done trying to steal bases because Teix, A-Rod, McCann & Beltran were swinging good bats. But here’s the problem, Ellsbury & Gardner running kept pitchers honest, it made pitchers have to think about these guys who at least in the 1st half were getting on base at a very good clip, and having to navigate through 4 guys who could all hit 20+ Homeruns. These two got so damn off rhythm with baserunning that when the bats got cold, and in the ever rare occurrence that either of them got on base, they couldn’t steal, couldn’t get pressure on the pitcher, and it made things worse.
Chris Young
Grade: B-
140 G 318AB 80H .252/.320/.453 14HR 42RBI 30BB 73K 20 2B
vs. LHP 153AB 50H .327/.397/.575 7HR 24RBI 18BB 28K 15 2B
I mean if we faced lefties, everyday, Chris Young should be in the starting lineup because he’d be in the Top 20 for MVP voting. Against RHP, not so much. He’s a really good 4th OF because he’s got a decent glove, and he has power to get the ball out. I’d like to have him back, but we’re starting to get crowded out in the field, and unless we trade one of the 3 starters, it’s hard to see him coming back. Also, I feel like he’s earned himself a multi-year deal from somebody. Somebody has to have seen what he did versus LHP and said, we need to get this guy for a couple seasons.
What I would like to do:
1. Trade Gardner for an infield prospect and SP prospect, won’t get a top end prospect, but somewhere in the 2nd Tier would be fine. Probably could get 2 based on potential if he can keep it going for a straight season.
2. If you can’t trade Carlos Beltran to the Royals, then you hold onto him.
3. Keep Ellsbury (Kind of have to because he has a no trade clause, I was fine with the years and the money we gave him, but the NTC is the dumbest thing we’ve done in years). If you wanted to trade Ellsbury, and could get Ellsbury to agree, Cubs might be the place. Don’t need much for him. A pitcher and OF. Eloy Jimenez in the Outfield is a guy I really like, a few years away as well.
4. Let Chris Young go if we haven’t gotten rid of Gardner or Beltran (Keep him if we did)
Gardner, I’d trade for a mid to upper tier prospect.
Beltran, I’d trade to a contending team, and tell him look, you did great, but if you want to play every day, we can’t guarantee it with how our roster is constructed. We’re looking to get you to an AL team that can get you to play DH. And if you kill us all season next year, so be it. We appreciate you for choosing us, and trying to get us a World Series, but it isn’t looking likely next year, so we’re going to try and do you a solid.
Chris Young is fine as a 4th OF, and is deadly against lefties, but I’d move on. He also deserves a multi-year contract anyway.
Carlos Beltran
Grade: C (B+ for batting, F for what he did in the field. I’m weighing his offense higher, just because of how old he is).
133G .276/.337/.471 478AB 132H 34 2B 19HR 67RBI 45 BB 85K
Carlos Beltran as a DH next year, I’d welcome him back with open arms. But as we know Alex Rodriguez is our DH going forward. Carlos started off slow, but over the last 3-4 months was our best hitter. Had big hit after big hit. He fell in line with his career averages, with a little drop off (he’s 38 for Christ sake). That just shows how hot he was. Actually if you look at just post-All Star he was better than his career averages. If he’s back next year, and keeps this up, then great. But like Ichiro when he had that ridiculously hot second half when first traded here, you can’t count on a 35+ year old to carry that over.
What pissed me off was his effort in the field. Yeah I get it, he’s 38 years old. He’s no longer what he was in the field. But he’s lost it all. Plenty of times, it looked like he’s just jogging out there chasing after the ball in the gap.
Under the right circumstance, it’d work right for us. He’d be our DH. But A-Rod, Teix, Bird (impacts Beltran), where does Beltran fit?
As our everyday RF? Nah I don’t think it can work again. If we want to make the playoffs. If we are just conceding the season? Which I think we may have to, depending on our aggressiveness in this offseason. Then fine.
The Royals could use him in all honesty still. Could split DH with Kendrys Morales, and play OF without much problem for the Royals because their RF production was so bad offensively, it would work for them. He had interest going there before he chose us, they had interest in him. With his hot 2nd Half, may be nice to get their reunion especially if they can make a serious contention.
Brett Gardner
Grade: C+
151G .259/.343/.399 571AB 148H 26 2B 3 3B 16HR 66RBI 68BB 135K 20/25 SB
First half, absolutely beautiful. .302/.377/.484 10HR 42RBI 15/18SB. He along with Ellsbury, the first couple of months was a huge reason why we were leading the division for most of the season. After the All Star Break .206/.300/.292 6HR 24RBI 5/7SB. At least with Ellsbury, there was an injury, with Gardner, he just fell off a cliff. If you want context, Stephen Drew was .235/.297/.397 in the Second Half. Gardner cooling off really hurt us, and took us from a commanding First Place lead to barely making the playoffs.
His defense regressed in the season, but he was such a strong fielder that he could still recover, and be good.
In all honesty, I would trade him. Take a mid-level prospect for him, and deal with the consequence of trading him now. Or give him a season to figure it out. But if he fades again in the 2nd half, it happened last year pretty bad as well, then we can’t afford to keep him.
On the worst case, because he’s only making about $36mil over the next 3 seasons, he becomes a 4th OF, with versatility in Year 2-3. We could live with that.
Jacoby Ellsbury
Grade: C-
111G .257/.318/.345 452AB 116H 66R 15 2B 2 3B 7HR 33RBI 35BB 86K 21/30SB
Like Brett Gardner, Ellsbury started off like a monster. The first 40 games of the season, Ellsbury was hitting .324/.412/.372 with a .379BABIP. But then he got injured, missed the second quarter of the season, came back and hit .224/.269/.332, which is around what Gardner did in the 2nd half. Ellsbury has the excuse of an injury, Gardner doesn’t. I guess it’s all about getting him rest, and maybe capping his games. But honestly, I couldn’t tell you. He was still pretty good tracking down the ball.
What pissed me off most about Ellsbury & Gardner alike, is that Joe just all of a sudden decided that he was done trying to steal bases because Teix, A-Rod, McCann & Beltran were swinging good bats. But here’s the problem, Ellsbury & Gardner running kept pitchers honest, it made pitchers have to think about these guys who at least in the 1st half were getting on base at a very good clip, and having to navigate through 4 guys who could all hit 20+ Homeruns. These two got so damn off rhythm with baserunning that when the bats got cold, and in the ever rare occurrence that either of them got on base, they couldn’t steal, couldn’t get pressure on the pitcher, and it made things worse.
Chris Young
Grade: B-
140 G 318AB 80H .252/.320/.453 14HR 42RBI 30BB 73K 20 2B
vs. LHP 153AB 50H .327/.397/.575 7HR 24RBI 18BB 28K 15 2B
I mean if we faced lefties, everyday, Chris Young should be in the starting lineup because he’d be in the Top 20 for MVP voting. Against RHP, not so much. He’s a really good 4th OF because he’s got a decent glove, and he has power to get the ball out. I’d like to have him back, but we’re starting to get crowded out in the field, and unless we trade one of the 3 starters, it’s hard to see him coming back. Also, I feel like he’s earned himself a multi-year deal from somebody. Somebody has to have seen what he did versus LHP and said, we need to get this guy for a couple seasons.
What I would like to do:
1. Trade Gardner for an infield prospect and SP prospect, won’t get a top end prospect, but somewhere in the 2nd Tier would be fine. Probably could get 2 based on potential if he can keep it going for a straight season.
2. If you can’t trade Carlos Beltran to the Royals, then you hold onto him.
3. Keep Ellsbury (Kind of have to because he has a no trade clause, I was fine with the years and the money we gave him, but the NTC is the dumbest thing we’ve done in years). If you wanted to trade Ellsbury, and could get Ellsbury to agree, Cubs might be the place. Don’t need much for him. A pitcher and OF. Eloy Jimenez in the Outfield is a guy I really like, a few years away as well.
4. Let Chris Young go if we haven’t gotten rid of Gardner or Beltran (Keep him if we did)
FREE AGENCY:
Starting Pitchers:
1. David Price (7 year / $210, but it’s really 6 year / $185mil with a 7th year $5mil buyout)
Kershaw got 7 year / $215mil before 2014, Sherzer got 7 year / $210mil before 2015. From what I read, the market for Price will sit at 8 year / $200-220mil. Really doubt anybody goes to the top end of that. Not even the Cubs, with Lester already getting huge money, they have to consider what the consequence will be when their young guys need to get paid. There is no draft pick involved, so you get massive improvement without the downside of losing your pick. So I’d go way over on Price per year, so I can get away with 2 less years on the total contract. With the way Price is pitching and has found added velocity in his fastball, at least 2/3 of that deal you’ll get your money’s worth. Price – Tanaka – Pineda – Severino – CC – Eovaldi is a World Series favorite rotation.
But if we have to go 8 years and over $200mil, with no outs for us on that deal, I’d pass easily on it. There is way too much risk on it.
2. Johnny Cueto (5 year / $100mil)
I’ve read everything from 4 year / $75mil to 6 year / $150mil. Some go low due to up and downs in his career and bombing for the Royals, some go high because he’s an ace, and has no draft pick attached. Anything above $20mil for 5 years, I’m passing. $20mil makes me nervous as well, but without the draft pick attached, it ups the market a bit. Cueto is a really good pitcher, and a solid front-end guy, but there is too much volatility for me to go long-term on him for a specific price. Also no draft pick attached.
3. Mike Leake (5 year / $75-80mil)
Not great, not bad. Under the radar kind of guy, so it might help our market. My pick of the guy we end up with because of cost + years + age. It is kind of a downer, but Mike Leake is still a pretty good pitcher, a good #3. 28 years old. No draft pick attached, if he is a disappointment, could probably always get out of his deal through trade because of his age.
4. Jordan Zimmerman (draft pick attached)
I really like Zimmerman, but with the draft pick attached, it’d have to be a really cheap deal. If Nats don’t give the QO (they should), then go after him with the same kind of offer I’d give to Mike Leake. Maybe up to $90mil, if no draft pick attached.
5. Jeff Samardzija (likely draft pick attached, if he gets Qualifying Offer)
The guy everyone assumes we will get. I don’t want him. Especially if Chicago puts a QO on him. I’d rather pay 6 year / $150mil on Cueto than lose a draft pick and whatever Shark will cost per year. Probably $15-18mil is his market, if a draft pick involved, then I’m down to like $10mil / year.
6. Doug Fister (likely no Qualifying offer, so no draft pick attached)
If no draft pick, maybe 4 year / $60mil. He regressed a lot this year. So that + age,
I’d be very weary of him.
7. Zach Greinke – NO! Avoid at all costs. It’s a trap contract.
Relief Pitcher:
Best chose… Darren O’Day 32 years old of the O’s. In the last 4 years, he’s averaged 68 games, 66IP, 1.92 ERA, but a 3.08 FIP .939WHIP 71Ks. 6.3H/9 0.8 HR/9 2.1 BB/9 9.7 K/9. Some red flags including his age, but he’s a lock down reliever. His hard hit ball rate is below leg average. Has an 84.5% stranded runner rate. Also his age may not matter, he relies on mixing in pitches, still throws mid-to high 80s fastball, but has the 4seam / sinker / slider that keep hitters fooled, also the pitching motion works in his favor. MLB Trade Rumors is thinking he’ll get around Luke Gregerson’s money 3year / $18.5mil (w/ incentives that can push it up). I’d even go an extra couple mil on it. He would definitely be worth the investment, if we are trying to win now. Gives us 3 beasts in the pen with O’Day, Dellin & Miller in that order that ends the games after 6.
If O’Day is a no go. Joakim Soria, may be a decent answer for half the price.
Neftali Feliz, Ryan Webb (Cleveland), Matt Albers (CWS) are all Debbie Downer picks, but guys who could be around for cheaper. Would likely force us to need to fix the role of our current guys.
Second Base:
I’d rather platoon Ackley & Refsnyder all season, and have them bat 9th. Especially if we have a finite amount of dollars to spend. I’d rather just go after a Front End Starter, a great guy in the bullpen, and figure out the outfield before second baseman stuff. Don’t need any production from them, they’ll be hitting 9th. But with 162 between Ackley & Refsnyder, I’d fully expect .240 15-20HRs 50-60RBIS. I’ll take that from the bottom of the order.
Ackley did very well in the 23 games he played with us, as did Refsnyder in his cup of coffee this season. I’m not fully convinced by Refsnyder, but as your 9th spot, it’s fine. My biggest concern with Robbie is his ability to field, hitting wise, he seems to have a decent approach.
But let’s look at what is out there.
Ben Zobrist (Market: 4 year / $55-65mil, I’d pay 3 year / $36mil tops.)
Despite being a solid player, with great versatility, and being a good fit at Yankee Stadium, I do not want Zobrist for this price. He has Chase Headley written on him; a logical signing when it happens, but will be very meh. Also I’m really not convinced that we should pay a guy midway between 34 & 35 for only decent production for 3-4 years, regardless of if it is a need or not.
An Ackley/Refsnyder platoon would give you some of the versatility to what Zobrist does. Also Ackley is much younger than Zobrist, so if he fits and sticks, we can get a few seasons with him. Only place you would miss out is if Didi were to get hurt, Zobrist could fill in there. But is it really worth carrying Zobrist, Ackley & Refsnyder? You’d have to send Refsnyder back down to AAA because you’d be severely limiting your roster with Bird, Ackley & Refsnyder all on the bench, you’d only have 1 more spot left, and that would go to JR Murphy.
Daniel Murphy (4 year / $40mil)
If Mets offer the QO to him, and they should, really no down side for them, then pass at any cost. He’s not worth a draft pick.
He probably would have ended up with an extra $20-25mil on his deal had he not choked in the World Series, but for the most part he had a ridiculous post season. So I’m not budging on the price. Where he is better than Zobrist is his age. But even then Murphy has been very inconsistent, and he’s not nearly as good as these playoffs show. Still not sure that we should be looking to get someone at 2B. They would be batting at the end of the order, no real rush to get someone new there.
But it’s either Ackley & Refsnyder at 2B. Or it is Zobrist & Ackley at 2B, and you either move Refsnyder to AAA or you trade him.
I’d rather save our money for a Front End Starter, A 7th Inning Reliever & Versatile Outfielder that can get a bunch of games at all 3 positions in the OF.
Outfield:
This is where it gets pretty difficult, we have 3 OFs getting paid good money in 2016, so it makes it difficult for us.
The OF market to me are 3 guys: Jason Heyward, Justin Upton & Yoenis Cespedes in that order.
Jason Heyward (10 year / $220mil…. Give him a player option after 5 years. A buy out after year 9)
Jason Heyward is 26 years old. We asked the Braves about him before the season. Will have a draft pick attached to him, but HOW OFTEN does a 26 year old of his caliber hit Free Agency? He’d be worth the draft pick, especially if we chased someone like Price who is a front end, and doesn’t have a pick with him.
Even if you get him a 10-year deal, it’s fair to assume you’d get 5-6 prime seasons, 2-3 seasons of decreased production and 1-2 that you regret. But with a 10 year deal, you likely can get yourself a buyout of that 10th year. I’d come in strong 10 year / $220mil. Some say he may end up with 8, I just can’t see 8 years because he’s 26, and not 30. He’ll likely ask for an opt-out after 5 seasons. If he opts out, say goodbye. We saw it with A-Rod, if he opts out, even if he’s an MVP at God like production, you may need to move on, unless you come back with no extra years, but extra money only.
It’s a signing that still keeps us very young. Especially if Gardner or Beltran is gone for Heyward. Or worst case, we have all 4, and we end up moving Heyward between LF & RF. Gardner between LF & CF. Beltran between RF & DH, and we have a solid dynamic OF.
Justin Upton – Turned 28 in August. Doesn’t have the market that Heyward has due to age, and Heyward has a more well rounded game. Doesn’t have the market that Cespedes has due to a ridiculous 2nd Half. He may be the best bet for us. 6 years / $120mil isn’t great, but you factor in that he’s been very durable, and has put up good power numbers in Pitchers Parks (ATL & SD) over the past 3 years, you can reasonably assume that you’ll get a ROI for most of that contract, if not all of it. Also, a solid RH bat, which we need.
Another reason why Justin Upton would work well, if Brett Gardner is traded, is that we could keep Chris Young for a 3 year deal maybe $12mil total. Upton slides into LF, and it paves the way for Judge to be our RF in 2016. Although he still has a long way to go, as seen by his .284 in AA to .224 in AAA, and he has almost a 3:1 K to BB ratio.
Yoenis Cespedes – I’ve cooled off considerably on him. He’s already 30. Had an amazing second half, probably driving his market up north of $20mil a season. I originally thought he’d be 6 year / $90-100mil, now it’s probably 6 year and depending on how many teams are in on him, he could end up with a Ellsbury salary of 7 year / $150mil+. You also won’t get an opt out on his contract either. So once you hand it out, you’re stuck with it. Even though the Mets are cheap, I do think they will still try to keep him. If you bid more than 5 year / $110mil, you’re out of your mind. I’d really steer clear of Cespedes unless his market falls below $100mil.
In a likely scenario. We trade Gardner. Keep Ellsbury, Beltran & Chris Young. Sign either Heyward, or Upton. I think Upton is more likely with Heyward possibly staying in St. Louis.
Worst Case Scenario: We keep the same OF we had this past season, and no changes.
In a fun scenario. We keep Ells, Gardy & Beltran.. Sign Upton (since it works better), how do we make this work? Everybody gets a cap in game limit. Most of the guys we have need it anyway.
*Not including pinch-hit opportunities, or entering games mid-way through for defense.
C- McCann (125 games) / Murphy (37 games)
1B – Teix (80games) / Bird (82games)
2B – Ackley (82 games) / Refsnyder (82games)
3B – Headley (137 games) / A-Rod (25 games)
SS – Didi (152 games) / ???? (10 games)
LF – Gardner (100 games) / Upton (62 games)
CF – Ellsbury (130 games) / Gardner (32 games)
RF – Upton (82 games) / Beltran (82 games)
DH – A-Rod (95games) / Teix (40 games) / Beltran (27 games)
In a WTF just happened scenario.
We trade Gardner & Beltran, and spend $300mil on Heyward & Upton
1. Trade Carlos Beltran or Brett Gardner. Hopefully Beltran, don’t even need anything back. If Gardner, need 2 mid-level prospects. Or keep them both, but Beltran then becomes the 4th OF.
2. Jason Heyward or Justin Upton. Heyward may be better because on a long deal, he’ll probably ask for an opt-out that he’ll take, and half way through the deal we can start brand new, but Upton is the better fit because we need a right handed bat. Upton will be a much shorter deal than Heyward, so it’ll probably end up same years, and less money once Heyward takes an opt out. No really good Free Agents in the OF for the next couple seasons (a few guys that will be good, but 30 or older, so we can get away with Gardner-Ellsbury-Upton for the next couple of seasons). We may even be able to keep Gardner – Ellsbury – Upton – Beltran for a season. Beltran retires. Trade Gardner, move Upton back to LF, and Judge to RF for 2017. Or do the same with Heyward.
1. David Price (7 year / $210, but it’s really 6 year / $185mil with a 7th year $5mil buyout)
Kershaw got 7 year / $215mil before 2014, Sherzer got 7 year / $210mil before 2015. From what I read, the market for Price will sit at 8 year / $200-220mil. Really doubt anybody goes to the top end of that. Not even the Cubs, with Lester already getting huge money, they have to consider what the consequence will be when their young guys need to get paid. There is no draft pick involved, so you get massive improvement without the downside of losing your pick. So I’d go way over on Price per year, so I can get away with 2 less years on the total contract. With the way Price is pitching and has found added velocity in his fastball, at least 2/3 of that deal you’ll get your money’s worth. Price – Tanaka – Pineda – Severino – CC – Eovaldi is a World Series favorite rotation.
But if we have to go 8 years and over $200mil, with no outs for us on that deal, I’d pass easily on it. There is way too much risk on it.
2. Johnny Cueto (5 year / $100mil)
I’ve read everything from 4 year / $75mil to 6 year / $150mil. Some go low due to up and downs in his career and bombing for the Royals, some go high because he’s an ace, and has no draft pick attached. Anything above $20mil for 5 years, I’m passing. $20mil makes me nervous as well, but without the draft pick attached, it ups the market a bit. Cueto is a really good pitcher, and a solid front-end guy, but there is too much volatility for me to go long-term on him for a specific price. Also no draft pick attached.
3. Mike Leake (5 year / $75-80mil)
Not great, not bad. Under the radar kind of guy, so it might help our market. My pick of the guy we end up with because of cost + years + age. It is kind of a downer, but Mike Leake is still a pretty good pitcher, a good #3. 28 years old. No draft pick attached, if he is a disappointment, could probably always get out of his deal through trade because of his age.
4. Jordan Zimmerman (draft pick attached)
I really like Zimmerman, but with the draft pick attached, it’d have to be a really cheap deal. If Nats don’t give the QO (they should), then go after him with the same kind of offer I’d give to Mike Leake. Maybe up to $90mil, if no draft pick attached.
5. Jeff Samardzija (likely draft pick attached, if he gets Qualifying Offer)
The guy everyone assumes we will get. I don’t want him. Especially if Chicago puts a QO on him. I’d rather pay 6 year / $150mil on Cueto than lose a draft pick and whatever Shark will cost per year. Probably $15-18mil is his market, if a draft pick involved, then I’m down to like $10mil / year.
6. Doug Fister (likely no Qualifying offer, so no draft pick attached)
If no draft pick, maybe 4 year / $60mil. He regressed a lot this year. So that + age,
I’d be very weary of him.
7. Zach Greinke – NO! Avoid at all costs. It’s a trap contract.
Relief Pitcher:
Best chose… Darren O’Day 32 years old of the O’s. In the last 4 years, he’s averaged 68 games, 66IP, 1.92 ERA, but a 3.08 FIP .939WHIP 71Ks. 6.3H/9 0.8 HR/9 2.1 BB/9 9.7 K/9. Some red flags including his age, but he’s a lock down reliever. His hard hit ball rate is below leg average. Has an 84.5% stranded runner rate. Also his age may not matter, he relies on mixing in pitches, still throws mid-to high 80s fastball, but has the 4seam / sinker / slider that keep hitters fooled, also the pitching motion works in his favor. MLB Trade Rumors is thinking he’ll get around Luke Gregerson’s money 3year / $18.5mil (w/ incentives that can push it up). I’d even go an extra couple mil on it. He would definitely be worth the investment, if we are trying to win now. Gives us 3 beasts in the pen with O’Day, Dellin & Miller in that order that ends the games after 6.
If O’Day is a no go. Joakim Soria, may be a decent answer for half the price.
Neftali Feliz, Ryan Webb (Cleveland), Matt Albers (CWS) are all Debbie Downer picks, but guys who could be around for cheaper. Would likely force us to need to fix the role of our current guys.
Second Base:
I’d rather platoon Ackley & Refsnyder all season, and have them bat 9th. Especially if we have a finite amount of dollars to spend. I’d rather just go after a Front End Starter, a great guy in the bullpen, and figure out the outfield before second baseman stuff. Don’t need any production from them, they’ll be hitting 9th. But with 162 between Ackley & Refsnyder, I’d fully expect .240 15-20HRs 50-60RBIS. I’ll take that from the bottom of the order.
Ackley did very well in the 23 games he played with us, as did Refsnyder in his cup of coffee this season. I’m not fully convinced by Refsnyder, but as your 9th spot, it’s fine. My biggest concern with Robbie is his ability to field, hitting wise, he seems to have a decent approach.
But let’s look at what is out there.
Ben Zobrist (Market: 4 year / $55-65mil, I’d pay 3 year / $36mil tops.)
Despite being a solid player, with great versatility, and being a good fit at Yankee Stadium, I do not want Zobrist for this price. He has Chase Headley written on him; a logical signing when it happens, but will be very meh. Also I’m really not convinced that we should pay a guy midway between 34 & 35 for only decent production for 3-4 years, regardless of if it is a need or not.
An Ackley/Refsnyder platoon would give you some of the versatility to what Zobrist does. Also Ackley is much younger than Zobrist, so if he fits and sticks, we can get a few seasons with him. Only place you would miss out is if Didi were to get hurt, Zobrist could fill in there. But is it really worth carrying Zobrist, Ackley & Refsnyder? You’d have to send Refsnyder back down to AAA because you’d be severely limiting your roster with Bird, Ackley & Refsnyder all on the bench, you’d only have 1 more spot left, and that would go to JR Murphy.
Daniel Murphy (4 year / $40mil)
If Mets offer the QO to him, and they should, really no down side for them, then pass at any cost. He’s not worth a draft pick.
He probably would have ended up with an extra $20-25mil on his deal had he not choked in the World Series, but for the most part he had a ridiculous post season. So I’m not budging on the price. Where he is better than Zobrist is his age. But even then Murphy has been very inconsistent, and he’s not nearly as good as these playoffs show. Still not sure that we should be looking to get someone at 2B. They would be batting at the end of the order, no real rush to get someone new there.
But it’s either Ackley & Refsnyder at 2B. Or it is Zobrist & Ackley at 2B, and you either move Refsnyder to AAA or you trade him.
I’d rather save our money for a Front End Starter, A 7th Inning Reliever & Versatile Outfielder that can get a bunch of games at all 3 positions in the OF.
Outfield:
This is where it gets pretty difficult, we have 3 OFs getting paid good money in 2016, so it makes it difficult for us.
The OF market to me are 3 guys: Jason Heyward, Justin Upton & Yoenis Cespedes in that order.
Jason Heyward (10 year / $220mil…. Give him a player option after 5 years. A buy out after year 9)
Jason Heyward is 26 years old. We asked the Braves about him before the season. Will have a draft pick attached to him, but HOW OFTEN does a 26 year old of his caliber hit Free Agency? He’d be worth the draft pick, especially if we chased someone like Price who is a front end, and doesn’t have a pick with him.
Even if you get him a 10-year deal, it’s fair to assume you’d get 5-6 prime seasons, 2-3 seasons of decreased production and 1-2 that you regret. But with a 10 year deal, you likely can get yourself a buyout of that 10th year. I’d come in strong 10 year / $220mil. Some say he may end up with 8, I just can’t see 8 years because he’s 26, and not 30. He’ll likely ask for an opt-out after 5 seasons. If he opts out, say goodbye. We saw it with A-Rod, if he opts out, even if he’s an MVP at God like production, you may need to move on, unless you come back with no extra years, but extra money only.
It’s a signing that still keeps us very young. Especially if Gardner or Beltran is gone for Heyward. Or worst case, we have all 4, and we end up moving Heyward between LF & RF. Gardner between LF & CF. Beltran between RF & DH, and we have a solid dynamic OF.
Justin Upton – Turned 28 in August. Doesn’t have the market that Heyward has due to age, and Heyward has a more well rounded game. Doesn’t have the market that Cespedes has due to a ridiculous 2nd Half. He may be the best bet for us. 6 years / $120mil isn’t great, but you factor in that he’s been very durable, and has put up good power numbers in Pitchers Parks (ATL & SD) over the past 3 years, you can reasonably assume that you’ll get a ROI for most of that contract, if not all of it. Also, a solid RH bat, which we need.
Another reason why Justin Upton would work well, if Brett Gardner is traded, is that we could keep Chris Young for a 3 year deal maybe $12mil total. Upton slides into LF, and it paves the way for Judge to be our RF in 2016. Although he still has a long way to go, as seen by his .284 in AA to .224 in AAA, and he has almost a 3:1 K to BB ratio.
Yoenis Cespedes – I’ve cooled off considerably on him. He’s already 30. Had an amazing second half, probably driving his market up north of $20mil a season. I originally thought he’d be 6 year / $90-100mil, now it’s probably 6 year and depending on how many teams are in on him, he could end up with a Ellsbury salary of 7 year / $150mil+. You also won’t get an opt out on his contract either. So once you hand it out, you’re stuck with it. Even though the Mets are cheap, I do think they will still try to keep him. If you bid more than 5 year / $110mil, you’re out of your mind. I’d really steer clear of Cespedes unless his market falls below $100mil.
In a likely scenario. We trade Gardner. Keep Ellsbury, Beltran & Chris Young. Sign either Heyward, or Upton. I think Upton is more likely with Heyward possibly staying in St. Louis.
Worst Case Scenario: We keep the same OF we had this past season, and no changes.
In a fun scenario. We keep Ells, Gardy & Beltran.. Sign Upton (since it works better), how do we make this work? Everybody gets a cap in game limit. Most of the guys we have need it anyway.
*Not including pinch-hit opportunities, or entering games mid-way through for defense.
C- McCann (125 games) / Murphy (37 games)
1B – Teix (80games) / Bird (82games)
2B – Ackley (82 games) / Refsnyder (82games)
3B – Headley (137 games) / A-Rod (25 games)
SS – Didi (152 games) / ???? (10 games)
LF – Gardner (100 games) / Upton (62 games)
CF – Ellsbury (130 games) / Gardner (32 games)
RF – Upton (82 games) / Beltran (82 games)
DH – A-Rod (95games) / Teix (40 games) / Beltran (27 games)
In a WTF just happened scenario.
We trade Gardner & Beltran, and spend $300mil on Heyward & Upton
1. Trade Carlos Beltran or Brett Gardner. Hopefully Beltran, don’t even need anything back. If Gardner, need 2 mid-level prospects. Or keep them both, but Beltran then becomes the 4th OF.
2. Jason Heyward or Justin Upton. Heyward may be better because on a long deal, he’ll probably ask for an opt-out that he’ll take, and half way through the deal we can start brand new, but Upton is the better fit because we need a right handed bat. Upton will be a much shorter deal than Heyward, so it’ll probably end up same years, and less money once Heyward takes an opt out. No really good Free Agents in the OF for the next couple seasons (a few guys that will be good, but 30 or older, so we can get away with Gardner-Ellsbury-Upton for the next couple of seasons). We may even be able to keep Gardner – Ellsbury – Upton – Beltran for a season. Beltran retires. Trade Gardner, move Upton back to LF, and Judge to RF for 2017. Or do the same with Heyward.
3 Types of Roster Guesses
My guess of a realistic roster for next season:
SP1 – Masahiro Tanaka
SP2 – Michael Pineda
SP3 - Mike Leake (5 year / $75mil)
SP4 - Luis Severino
SP5 - Nathan Eovaldi
SP6 or in the Pen– Carsten Charles Sabathia
All Hell’s Broken Loose Relief – Adam Warren
LOOGY 1 – Justin Wilson
LOOGY 2 – Chasen Shreve (Jacob Lindgren once one of them struggles and we trade them)
7th Inning – Darren O’Day (3 year / $21mil)
8th Inning – Dellin Betances
Closer – Andrew Miller
Catcher – Brian McCann
First Base – Mark Teixeira
Second Base – Dustin Ackley
Third Base – Chase Headley
Shortstop – Didi Gregorius
Left Field – Justin Upton (6 year / $105mil)
Center Field – Jacoby Ellsbury
Right Field – Carlos Beltran
Designated Hitter – Alex Rodriguez
Bench:
Catcher – John Ryan Murphy
First Base – Greg Bird
Second Base – Robbie Refsnyder
Outfield – Chris Young
Cashman Probable Roster:
SP1 – Masahiro Tanaka
SP2 – Michael Pineda
SP3 – Jeff Samardzija (4 year / $60mil)
SP4 – Luis Severino
SP5 – Nathan Eovaldi
Long Reliever – C.C.
LOOGY 1 – Justin Wilson
LOOGY 2 – Chasen Shreve (Jacob Lindgren once one of them struggles and we trade them)
RHP – Andrew Bailey or Branden Pindar or Bryan Mitchell
RHP – Adam Warren
8th Inning – Dellin Betances
Closer – Andrew Miller
Catcher – Brian McCann
First Base – Mark Teixeira
Second Base – Dustin Ackley
Third Base – Chase Headley
Shortstop – Didi Gregorius
Left Field – Justin Upton (6 year / $105mil)
Center Field – Jacoby Ellsbury
Right Field – Carlos Beltran
Designated Hitter – Alex Rodriguez
Bench:
Catcher – John Ryan Murphy
First Base – Greg Bird
Second Base – Robbie Refsnyder
Outfield – Chris Young
We Are The Yankees and Love Free Agency:
SP1 - Masahiro Tanaka
SP2 – Johnny Cueto (5 year / $110mil)
SP3 – Michael Pineda
SP4 – Luis Severino
SP5 – Nathan Eovaldi
Long Reliever – C.C.
LOOGY 1 – Justin Wilson
LOOGY 2 – Chasen Shreve (Jacob Lindgren once one of them struggles and we trade them)
RHP – Adam Warren
7th Inning – Darren O’Day (3 year / $21mil)
8th Inning – Dellin Betances
Closer – Andrew Miller
Catcher – Brian McCann
First Base – Mark Teixeira
Second Base – Dustin Ackley
Third Base – Chase Headley
Shortstop – Didi Gregorius
Left Field – Justin Upton (6 year / $105mil)
Center Field – Jacoby Ellsbury
Right Field – Carlos Beltran
Designated Hitter – Alex Rodriguez
Bench:
Catcher – John Ryan Murphy
First Base – Greg Bird
Second Base – Robbie Refsnyder
Outfield – Chris Young
SP1 – Masahiro Tanaka
SP2 – Michael Pineda
SP3 - Mike Leake (5 year / $75mil)
SP4 - Luis Severino
SP5 - Nathan Eovaldi
SP6 or in the Pen– Carsten Charles Sabathia
All Hell’s Broken Loose Relief – Adam Warren
LOOGY 1 – Justin Wilson
LOOGY 2 – Chasen Shreve (Jacob Lindgren once one of them struggles and we trade them)
7th Inning – Darren O’Day (3 year / $21mil)
8th Inning – Dellin Betances
Closer – Andrew Miller
Catcher – Brian McCann
First Base – Mark Teixeira
Second Base – Dustin Ackley
Third Base – Chase Headley
Shortstop – Didi Gregorius
Left Field – Justin Upton (6 year / $105mil)
Center Field – Jacoby Ellsbury
Right Field – Carlos Beltran
Designated Hitter – Alex Rodriguez
Bench:
Catcher – John Ryan Murphy
First Base – Greg Bird
Second Base – Robbie Refsnyder
Outfield – Chris Young
Cashman Probable Roster:
SP1 – Masahiro Tanaka
SP2 – Michael Pineda
SP3 – Jeff Samardzija (4 year / $60mil)
SP4 – Luis Severino
SP5 – Nathan Eovaldi
Long Reliever – C.C.
LOOGY 1 – Justin Wilson
LOOGY 2 – Chasen Shreve (Jacob Lindgren once one of them struggles and we trade them)
RHP – Andrew Bailey or Branden Pindar or Bryan Mitchell
RHP – Adam Warren
8th Inning – Dellin Betances
Closer – Andrew Miller
Catcher – Brian McCann
First Base – Mark Teixeira
Second Base – Dustin Ackley
Third Base – Chase Headley
Shortstop – Didi Gregorius
Left Field – Justin Upton (6 year / $105mil)
Center Field – Jacoby Ellsbury
Right Field – Carlos Beltran
Designated Hitter – Alex Rodriguez
Bench:
Catcher – John Ryan Murphy
First Base – Greg Bird
Second Base – Robbie Refsnyder
Outfield – Chris Young
We Are The Yankees and Love Free Agency:
SP1 - Masahiro Tanaka
SP2 – Johnny Cueto (5 year / $110mil)
SP3 – Michael Pineda
SP4 – Luis Severino
SP5 – Nathan Eovaldi
Long Reliever – C.C.
LOOGY 1 – Justin Wilson
LOOGY 2 – Chasen Shreve (Jacob Lindgren once one of them struggles and we trade them)
RHP – Adam Warren
7th Inning – Darren O’Day (3 year / $21mil)
8th Inning – Dellin Betances
Closer – Andrew Miller
Catcher – Brian McCann
First Base – Mark Teixeira
Second Base – Dustin Ackley
Third Base – Chase Headley
Shortstop – Didi Gregorius
Left Field – Justin Upton (6 year / $105mil)
Center Field – Jacoby Ellsbury
Right Field – Carlos Beltran
Designated Hitter – Alex Rodriguez
Bench:
Catcher – John Ryan Murphy
First Base – Greg Bird
Second Base – Robbie Refsnyder
Outfield – Chris Young
can't wait to start reading later today.
