YIELD CURVE INVERTS: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005

ballinsam23 said:
In every state? Prices in my neighborhood (Queens, NY) keep rising and people keep buying.
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Yes, on aggregate housing prices can take some time to fall- Specifically in hotter markets like NY. Nationwide inventory is up, and prices are starting to drop. This could be explained off before by higher interest rates, but rates have been flat or declining for several months now.

Below are some articles that offer a nice peak at this through an historic lens of what happened in NYC a decade ago- Housing prices actually increased at first. The articles were written roughly 8 months apart. For reference, the market crashed during the end of September 08.

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/nyregion/03real.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/02/nyregion/02real.html
 
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Brownstone Brownstone

Don't you think people are a bit more prepared now and maybe more educated on the topic? Especially those who lost out on not purchasing real estate during the last crash. History repeats itself, but its a bit different now. In places like NYC where you're sitting on 1 million dollar 2 bedroom condos, why would you sell when the value of your home is at its lowest?
 
Absolutely things have changed. For one, I don't think prices will fall as dramatically as in 09 For a litany of reasons I don't feel like elaborating on.

Concisely, The loss of homes e.g. Foreclosures during a recession occur when individuals are not able to make payments. A lot of individuals are house rich and cash poor, this is not a good insulation from down turns. One might say, but someone who could afford a million dollar condo will be fine.

History says otherwise.

Individuals are more likely to be cash poor in cities like NY, where median home prices are double the national average. Additionally, the influx of foreign capital from countries like China will not happen this time around. This means a further surplus of supply, and prolongated depressed prices.
 
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i need 36-48 months to really stack - sigh. Guess i’ll just continue heavily investing in the market tho and by then hopefully the markets have rebounded and house prices aren’t back up yet - that little window of golden time
 
htg designs said:
Just print more money. That's what I do when I run outta cash.
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If there's gonna be a recession every 10 years, then seriously....................eff everything.
Last time it took 3-4 years for things to pick up somewhat
 
Recessions are cyclical. This has been the longest expansion without a down quarter in US history. 2008 was an anomaly as it was almost a borderline depression. Your normal recession will have job losses and contraction but not like 2018. But the stock market will lose 30% of its value, potentially housing drops somewhat, and there’s other items that fall. But things reshape and it expands again. For those of us who work in relatively safe industries and sectors it means salary freezes and such. But I’ll take those over being let go any day.

To those who are more of a disposable workforce, then yea it can really suck.
 
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