Destiny Thread (Bungie) - 9/9/14

[0 xm 0]

i used the Pocket infinity yesterday during the weekly and it was fun in that first room. The full auto mode with 5 rounds is crazy tho, dont think its possible to compensate for the recoil that sends your gun pointing to the ceiling.

 

[zero23]

Nephew didn't go to school today, and I woke him up before i left for work so hopefully he'll be on early ...haven't done no nightfalls or weeklys this week.

He'll prob fall asleep in the nightfalls too. 

 

[wrightone86]

@Biggie62 this you posting on Reddit?

Probability of Xur selling the exact the same items as Jan 2
First of all, lets assume the probability of rolling each item is the same. There are 14 possible exotic weapons and 9 of each class exotics Xur can sell, creating 10206 possible rolls.

Using binomial distribution, number of trials is 5 as 5 weeks passed since he sold this set of items and the probability of success would be 1/10206. Therefore, the odds of Xur selling this same exact set of items twice in 5 weeks is equal to 1 in 1.04194*10[sup]7[/sup] or roughly 1 in 10 million. So much for RNG....

TL;DR Odds are 1 in 10 million

 

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Nephew didn't go to school today, and I woke him up before i left for work so hopefully he'll be on early ...haven't done no nightfalls or weeklys this week.

He'll prob fall asleep in the nightfalls too. 

Dude been testing and getting tutored for this past month, so he's hella tired, and is the reason we let him stay home today.

 
@Biggie62 this you posting on Reddit?

Probability of Xur selling the exact the same items as Jan 2
First of all, lets assume the probability of rolling each item is the same. There are 14 possible exotic weapons and 9 of each class exotics Xur can sell, creating 10206 possible rolls.

Using binomial distribution, number of trials is 5 as 5 weeks passed since he sold this set of items and the probability of success would be 1/10206. Therefore, the odds of Xur selling this same exact set of items twice in 5 weeks is equal to 1 in 1.04194*10[sup]7[/sup] or roughly 1 in 10 million. So much for RNG....

TL;DR Odds are 1 in 10 million

Bruh, that algorithm definitely sounds Biggie-like. 

 

[wrightone86]

Not a bad week. Got all the raid primaries, ice breaker, monte carlo, and two exotic armor pieces

Twin Warlock Nechrocasms

 

[wrightone86]

 
Dude been testing and getting tutored for this past month, so he's hella tired, and is the reason we let him stay home today.

Bruh, that algorithm definitely sounds Biggie-like. 

Anyone that has been in chat with Biggie will agree with this as well

So he gets a day of rest from school, so he can stay at home and do his 2nd job

We can level those Hawkmoons together

I've been slowly stocking 30 bounties over the course of the reset on Tuesday to use a Hand Cannon telemetry and level the Hawkmoon all at once. Just need a few more bounties on each character and a public event on another to be done.

 

[biggie62]

Anyone that has been in chat with Biggie will agree with this as well

So he gets a day of rest from school, so he can stay at home and do his 2nd job
We can level those Hawkmoons together
I've been slowly stocking 30 bounties over the course of the reset on Tuesday to use a Hand Cannon telemetry and level the Hawkmoon all at once. Just need a few more bounties on each character and a public event on another to be done.

That's not even an algorithm, it's just simple probability.


He probably didn't even max out his Gjallarhorn

 

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Dude been testing and getting tutored for this past month, so he's hella tired, and is the reason we let him stay home today.

Bruh, that algorithm definitely sounds Biggie-like. 

Anyone that has been in chat with Biggie will agree with this as well

So he gets a day of rest from school, so he can stay at home and do his 2nd job

We can level those Hawkmoons together

I've been slowly stocking 30 bounties over the course of the reset on Tuesday to use a Hand Cannon telemetry and level the Hawkmoon all at once. Just need a few more bounties on each character and a public event on another to be done.

I think he's only unlocked 1 or 2 upgrades on it so far, so yea yall can level it together.

 

[quad]

 

Anyone that has been in chat with Biggie will agree with this as well

So he gets a day of rest from school, so he can stay at home and do his 2nd job

We can level those Hawkmoons together

I've been slowly stocking 30 bounties over the course of the reset on Tuesday to use a Hand Cannon telemetry and level the Hawkmoon all at once. Just need a few more bounties on each character and a public event on another to be done.

That's not even an algorithm, it's just simple probability.

He probably didn't even max out his Gjallarhorn

He only needs the materials for the last 2 upgrades.

 

[biggie62]

He only needs the materials for the last 2 upgrades.

 

[ciscokid]

wrightone86 infraren was gonna rep you guys on each of the lupe posts but I ran out. Assuming you have heard T&Y?

 

[3stheluckynumbe]

300 max Truth or 331 max Dragon's Breath? Help.

 

[wrightone86]

@WrightOne86@InfraRen was gonna rep you guys on each of the lupe posts but I ran out. Assuming you have heard T&Y?

Haven't finished it, but listening to it while I do some stuff at work today

at Atlantic trying to make him release a pop song before they would let him drop this album though.

 

[ciscokid]

wrightone86 smh yeah I saw that sway interview. When I heard old skool love I thought we would get another layers for sure. Very happy with the outcome

 

[infraren]

Haven't finished it, but listening to it while I do some stuff at work today

at Atlantic trying to make him release a pop song before they would let him drop this album though.

Yeah Prisoner 1 & 2, Chopper and They Resurrect Over New my faves off one listen.

He's had some issues with the label for sure. Sounds like he never wanted to do the Lasers album. I still love Beautiful Lasers off that though

Battle Scars another poppy one that I like though.

Intruder Alert, Little Weapon, Put You On Game other faves.

 

[wrightone86]

 
Dude been testing and getting tutored for this past month, so he's hella tired, and is the reason we let him stay home today.

Bruh, that algorithm definitely sounds Biggie-like. 

That's not even an algorithm, it's just simple probability.

He probably didn't even max out his Gjallarhorn

Correction....Biggie did not make the post. Now we all know that this is actually Biggie coming through in the comments to correct them on their wrong numbers and probabilities

 
Whoa, whoa cmon.. Why the Binomial Distribution? Each week's rolls are assumed as independent events.

1 in 1.107 X 10[sup]20[/sup] is the probability of Xur selling Jan 2 inventory for 5 subsequent weeks.

EDIT: Or for that matter any set of 5 weeks, not necessarily subsequent. Just as long as these 5 weeks are the only weeks in the sample space

EDIT 2: I did the exact calculation: 1/110733192227672503776 is the odd that Xur's sells a certain set of items for 5 weeks so OP's 1 in 10 million chance is far short off the mark

The mathematical question as per OP is:

What is the probability that Xur sells the same items as on a given day. I don't know why you would talk about the weeks in-between.

Assuming that each item has an equal weightage in the draw, there are 4 slots into which you are selecting each of these categories of armor/weapons.

1) Odds of selecting same weapon=1/14

2) Odds of selecting same titan armor=1/9

3) Odds of selecting same warlock armor=1/9

4) Odds of selecting same Hunter armor=1/9

Probability of all these independent (presumably, Praise Bungie and RNGesus) events happening together (Probability AND/OR Rules)= 1/14 X 1/9 X 1/9 X 1/9=1/10206

TLW: Xur hit a one in 10,000 shot rather than one in 10 million as stated by OP. Guardians got screwed anyways.

 

[biggie62]

Correction....Biggie did not make the post. Now we all know that this is actually Biggie coming through in the comments to correct them on their wrong numbers and probabilities

There we go, that makes more sense and it's a lot simpler too. Didn't everyone take at least some probability or statistics courses in college?

I know that I have taken 6

 

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He only needs the materials for the last 2 upgrades.

He's only played for maybe 30 minutes this entire week ...and I've working my *** off this week so I aint leveling nathan.   

 

[wrightone86]

There we go, that makes more sense and it's a lot simpler too. Didn't everyone take at least some probability or statistics courses in college?

I know that I have taken 6

I took exactly 1 and that was enough for me

I did take like 3 calculus classes, and another class on conditional statements

 

[Jumanji]

Not a bad week. Got all the raid primaries, ice breaker, monte carlo, and two exotic armor pieces

Twin Warlock Nechrocasms
View media item 1377516

 

[biggie62]

I took exactly 1 and that was enough for me
I did take like 3 calculus classes, and another class on conditional statements :x

The first guy didn't realize that each item is mutually exclusive so a previous chance has no bearing on what happens in subsequent weeks.

 

[tekthemaestro]

The first guy didn't realize that each item is mutually exclusive so a previous chance has no bearing on what happens in subsequent weeks.

i didnt care about what that dude said, nor am i a math/statistics guru... but 10 million didnt sound right. 

 

[Ube]

Is sunbreakers even worth keeping as an exotic? I got it from the exotic engram from xur

 

[blaz3n]

Shoutout to @illsupra for his first dead orbit shader.. rank 7 with the bittersteel

 

[biggie62]

Shoutout to @illsupra for his first dead orbit shader.. rank 7 with the bittersteel

He finally got one?

Rank 50 now Frost?