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A few notes from my first first-round projection for April's NFL draft:
• The Miami Dolphins need help on defense and Bill Parcells is a defensive-minded coach, so DT Glenn Dorsey would be the logical pick. And while theDolphins could listen to trade offers for the top pick, there has not been a lot of movement in the top 10 in recent drafts. Why did Adrian Peterson slip toNo. 7 last year? Because teams weren't willing to trade up knowing they would have to part with draft picks and pay more money for the higher pick. Alsofor Miami, QB Matt Ryan has to be in the discussion because the Dolphins may not be sold on John Beck (a second-round pick last year). Miami needs quarterbackhelp and Ryan is going to be a top-five pick. Ryan might be too good to pass up, and he's a better prospect than Beck was when he came out of BYU lastyear. (Ryan is the only QB I am projecting will go in the first round).
• St. Louis will likely go with Long -- either Chris or Jake. Although the Rams drafted defensive tackle Adam Carriker last year, I could see them takingVirginia defensive end Chris Long. He's similar to Dorsey in that he plays with tremendous intensity and makes everyone around him better. If the Ramsdon't go with Chris Long, then Michigan left tackle Jake Long should be the pick since they could use help on the offensive line.
• The Atlanta Falcons should be in a good spot to upgrade at either running back or quarterback, so Darren McFadden or Matt Ryan could be the choice. I likeRyan here because this is a franchise that is in desperate need of a quarterback after going from Michael Vick to Joey Harrington to Byron Leftwich beforefinishing the season with Chris Redman.
• If Atlanta doesn't take McFadden, then Oakland will. (Remember, Oakland and Atlanta have a coin toss to determine who picks third overall.) Afterdrafting first overall in 2007, Oakland could be looking at getting the best player in the draft if McFadden is available.
Also, there are only 31 selections in the first round this year because the New England Patriots had to forfeit their pick after illegally videotapingsignals during their Week 1 game against the New York Jets.
The draft projections below are not based on ratings, but on information I have gathered and where I think teams will go based on needs. The first-roundprojections will be updated Jan. 31 following evaluations from the Senior Bowl.
* denotes underclassman; ** denotes teams that will decide draft order by coin flip.
[table][tr][td]Kiper's First-Round Projection[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Name[/td] [td]Team[/td] [td]Player[/td] [td]Position[/td] [/tr][tr][td]1[/td] [td]Miami Dolphins[/td] [td]Glenn Dorsey, DT[/td] [td]LSU[/td] [/tr][tr][td]2[/td] [td]St. Louis Rams[/td] [td]Chris Long, DE[/td] [td]Virginia[/td] [/tr][tr][td]3[/td] [td]Atlanta Falcons**[/td] [td]Matt Ryan, QB[/td] [td]Boston College[/td] [/tr][tr][td]4[/td] [td]Oakland Raiders**[/td] [td]*Darren McFadden, RB[/td] [td]Arkansas[/td] [/tr][tr][td]5[/td] [td]Kansas City Chiefs**[/td] [td]Jake Long, OT[/td] [td]Michigan[/td] [/tr][tr][td]6[/td] [td]New York Jets[/td] [td]*Vernon Gholston, DE[/td] [td]Ohio St.[/td] [/tr][tr][td]7[/td] [td]New England Patriots (from SF)[/td] [td]*Aqib Talib, CB[/td] [td]Kansas[/td] [/tr][tr][td]8[/td] [td]Baltimore Ravens[/td] [td]Sedrick Ellis, DT[/td] [td]USC[/td] [/tr][tr][td]9[/td] [td]Cincinnati Bengals[/td] [td]*Phillip Merling, DE[/td] [td]Clemson[/td] [/tr][tr][td]10[/td] [td]New Orleans Saints[/td] [td]Kentwan Balmer, DT[/td] [td]North Carolina[/td] [/tr][tr][td]11[/td] [td]Buffalo Bills[/td] [td]*Malcolm Kelly, WR[/td] [td]Oklahoma[/td] [/tr][tr][td]12[/td] [td]Denver Broncos[/td] [td]*Ryan Clady, OT[/td] [td]Boise St.[/td] [/tr][tr][td]13[/td] [td]Carolina Panthers[/td] [td]Jeff Otah, OT[/td] [td]Pittsburgh[/td] [/tr][tr][td]14[/td] [td]Chicago Bears[/td] [td]Sam Baker, OT[/td] [td]USC[/td] [/tr][tr][td]15[/td] [td]Detroit Lions[/td] [td]Leodis McKelvin, CB[/td] [td]Troy[/td] [/tr][tr][td]16[/td] [td]Arizona Cardinals[/td] [td]*Jonathan Stewart, RB[/td] [td]Oregon[/td] [/tr][tr][td]17[/td] [td]Minnesota Vikings[/td] [td]*DeSean Jackson, WR[/td] [td]California[/td] [/tr][tr][td]18[/td] [td]Houston Texans[/td] [td]Mike Jenkins, CB[/td] [td]South Florida[/td] [/tr][tr][td]19[/td] [td]Philadelphia Eagles[/td] [td]Chris Williams, OT[/td] [td]Vanderbilt[/td] [/tr][tr][td]20[/td] [td]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/td] [td]*Felix Jones, RB[/td] [td]Arkansas[/td] [/tr][tr][td]21[/td] [td]Washington ********[/td] [td]*Calais Campbell, DE[/td] [td]Miami[/td] [/tr][tr][td]22[/td] [td]Dallas Cowboys (from CLE)[/td] [td]*Mario Manningham, WR[/td] [td]Michigan[/td] [/tr][tr][td]23[/td] [td]Pittsburgh Steelers[/td] [td]*Chilo Rachal, OG[/td] [td]USC[/td] [/tr][tr][td]24[/td] [td]Tennessee Titans[/td] [td]Limas Sweed, WR[/td] [td]Texas[/td] [/tr][tr][td]25[/td] [td]Seattle Seahawks[/td] [td]Fred Davis, TE[/td] [td]USC[/td] [/tr][tr][td]26[/td] [td]Jacksonville Jaguars[/td] [td]*Derrick Harvey, DE[/td] [td]Florida[/td] [/tr][tr][td]27[/td] [td]San Diego Chargers[/td] [td]*Reggie Smith, CB[/td] [td]Oklahoma[/td] [/tr][tr][td]28[/td] [td]Dallas Cowboys[/td] [td]*Rashard Mendenhall, RB[/td] [td]Illinois[/td] [/tr][tr][td]29[/td] [td]San Francisco 49ers (from IND)[/td] [td]*James Hardy, WR[/td] [td]Indiana[/td] [/tr][tr][td]30[/td] [td]Green Bay Packers[/td] [td]Keith Rivers, LB[/td] [td]USC[/td] [/tr][tr][td]31[/td] [td]New York Giants[/td] [td]Dan Connor, LB[/td] [td]Penn St.[/td] [/tr][tr][td]32[/td] [td]New England Patriots[/td] [td]Forfeited pick[/td] [/tr][/table]
• The Miami Dolphins need help on defense and Bill Parcells is a defensive-minded coach, so DT Glenn Dorsey would be the logical pick. And while theDolphins could listen to trade offers for the top pick, there has not been a lot of movement in the top 10 in recent drafts. Why did Adrian Peterson slip toNo. 7 last year? Because teams weren't willing to trade up knowing they would have to part with draft picks and pay more money for the higher pick. Alsofor Miami, QB Matt Ryan has to be in the discussion because the Dolphins may not be sold on John Beck (a second-round pick last year). Miami needs quarterbackhelp and Ryan is going to be a top-five pick. Ryan might be too good to pass up, and he's a better prospect than Beck was when he came out of BYU lastyear. (Ryan is the only QB I am projecting will go in the first round).
• St. Louis will likely go with Long -- either Chris or Jake. Although the Rams drafted defensive tackle Adam Carriker last year, I could see them takingVirginia defensive end Chris Long. He's similar to Dorsey in that he plays with tremendous intensity and makes everyone around him better. If the Ramsdon't go with Chris Long, then Michigan left tackle Jake Long should be the pick since they could use help on the offensive line.
• The Atlanta Falcons should be in a good spot to upgrade at either running back or quarterback, so Darren McFadden or Matt Ryan could be the choice. I likeRyan here because this is a franchise that is in desperate need of a quarterback after going from Michael Vick to Joey Harrington to Byron Leftwich beforefinishing the season with Chris Redman.
• If Atlanta doesn't take McFadden, then Oakland will. (Remember, Oakland and Atlanta have a coin toss to determine who picks third overall.) Afterdrafting first overall in 2007, Oakland could be looking at getting the best player in the draft if McFadden is available.
Also, there are only 31 selections in the first round this year because the New England Patriots had to forfeit their pick after illegally videotapingsignals during their Week 1 game against the New York Jets.
The draft projections below are not based on ratings, but on information I have gathered and where I think teams will go based on needs. The first-roundprojections will be updated Jan. 31 following evaluations from the Senior Bowl.
* denotes underclassman; ** denotes teams that will decide draft order by coin flip.
[table][tr][td]Kiper's First-Round Projection[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Name[/td] [td]Team[/td] [td]Player[/td] [td]Position[/td] [/tr][tr][td]1[/td] [td]Miami Dolphins[/td] [td]Glenn Dorsey, DT[/td] [td]LSU[/td] [/tr][tr][td]2[/td] [td]St. Louis Rams[/td] [td]Chris Long, DE[/td] [td]Virginia[/td] [/tr][tr][td]3[/td] [td]Atlanta Falcons**[/td] [td]Matt Ryan, QB[/td] [td]Boston College[/td] [/tr][tr][td]4[/td] [td]Oakland Raiders**[/td] [td]*Darren McFadden, RB[/td] [td]Arkansas[/td] [/tr][tr][td]5[/td] [td]Kansas City Chiefs**[/td] [td]Jake Long, OT[/td] [td]Michigan[/td] [/tr][tr][td]6[/td] [td]New York Jets[/td] [td]*Vernon Gholston, DE[/td] [td]Ohio St.[/td] [/tr][tr][td]7[/td] [td]New England Patriots (from SF)[/td] [td]*Aqib Talib, CB[/td] [td]Kansas[/td] [/tr][tr][td]8[/td] [td]Baltimore Ravens[/td] [td]Sedrick Ellis, DT[/td] [td]USC[/td] [/tr][tr][td]9[/td] [td]Cincinnati Bengals[/td] [td]*Phillip Merling, DE[/td] [td]Clemson[/td] [/tr][tr][td]10[/td] [td]New Orleans Saints[/td] [td]Kentwan Balmer, DT[/td] [td]North Carolina[/td] [/tr][tr][td]11[/td] [td]Buffalo Bills[/td] [td]*Malcolm Kelly, WR[/td] [td]Oklahoma[/td] [/tr][tr][td]12[/td] [td]Denver Broncos[/td] [td]*Ryan Clady, OT[/td] [td]Boise St.[/td] [/tr][tr][td]13[/td] [td]Carolina Panthers[/td] [td]Jeff Otah, OT[/td] [td]Pittsburgh[/td] [/tr][tr][td]14[/td] [td]Chicago Bears[/td] [td]Sam Baker, OT[/td] [td]USC[/td] [/tr][tr][td]15[/td] [td]Detroit Lions[/td] [td]Leodis McKelvin, CB[/td] [td]Troy[/td] [/tr][tr][td]16[/td] [td]Arizona Cardinals[/td] [td]*Jonathan Stewart, RB[/td] [td]Oregon[/td] [/tr][tr][td]17[/td] [td]Minnesota Vikings[/td] [td]*DeSean Jackson, WR[/td] [td]California[/td] [/tr][tr][td]18[/td] [td]Houston Texans[/td] [td]Mike Jenkins, CB[/td] [td]South Florida[/td] [/tr][tr][td]19[/td] [td]Philadelphia Eagles[/td] [td]Chris Williams, OT[/td] [td]Vanderbilt[/td] [/tr][tr][td]20[/td] [td]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/td] [td]*Felix Jones, RB[/td] [td]Arkansas[/td] [/tr][tr][td]21[/td] [td]Washington ********[/td] [td]*Calais Campbell, DE[/td] [td]Miami[/td] [/tr][tr][td]22[/td] [td]Dallas Cowboys (from CLE)[/td] [td]*Mario Manningham, WR[/td] [td]Michigan[/td] [/tr][tr][td]23[/td] [td]Pittsburgh Steelers[/td] [td]*Chilo Rachal, OG[/td] [td]USC[/td] [/tr][tr][td]24[/td] [td]Tennessee Titans[/td] [td]Limas Sweed, WR[/td] [td]Texas[/td] [/tr][tr][td]25[/td] [td]Seattle Seahawks[/td] [td]Fred Davis, TE[/td] [td]USC[/td] [/tr][tr][td]26[/td] [td]Jacksonville Jaguars[/td] [td]*Derrick Harvey, DE[/td] [td]Florida[/td] [/tr][tr][td]27[/td] [td]San Diego Chargers[/td] [td]*Reggie Smith, CB[/td] [td]Oklahoma[/td] [/tr][tr][td]28[/td] [td]Dallas Cowboys[/td] [td]*Rashard Mendenhall, RB[/td] [td]Illinois[/td] [/tr][tr][td]29[/td] [td]San Francisco 49ers (from IND)[/td] [td]*James Hardy, WR[/td] [td]Indiana[/td] [/tr][tr][td]30[/td] [td]Green Bay Packers[/td] [td]Keith Rivers, LB[/td] [td]USC[/td] [/tr][tr][td]31[/td] [td]New York Giants[/td] [td]Dan Connor, LB[/td] [td]Penn St.[/td] [/tr][tr][td]32[/td] [td]New England Patriots[/td] [td]Forfeited pick[/td] [/tr][/table]
