The NBA Stats Thread: The 15-year chain reaction that led to the NBA's current offensive explosion

Kevin Cleveland said:
Where are the articles about how good Rudy Gobert is?
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Gobert does more than block shots

As valuable as statistical analysis can be in the NBA, it's important to remember that numbers aren't randomly generated by a computer. They're the product of humans playing on the court. To provide that context and understand the thinking behind the stats, ESPN Insider is sitting down with NBA players for "Data Dialogues" to discuss their games and their numbers.

Today, Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert talks about the factors that have helped improve dramatically in his second season in the NBA.

1. He already has increased his minutes played from 434 as a rookie to 1,160 this season, and his PER from 12.9 to 21.6.

Kevin Pelton: What kind of adjustment was there for you coming to the NBA from France?

Rudy Gobert: I would say the language first. The lifestyle was different from France. But it wasn't that hard for me.

KP: Was there a point where you thought you had that figured out?

RG: I think when the season started I was used to it and used to the daily routine, basically.

KP: What's enabled you to take such a big step forward this season?

RG: Pretty much everything. I'm working really hard, doing better on my game and my body, too. I think the coach [Quin Snyder] helps me a lot, my teammates. This summer helped me a lot. I think it's just confidence. When the coach gives me confidence, I feel better and I play better.

KP: Did your strong play in the NBA Summer League and the FIBA World Cup help?

RG: Of course. At the end of last season, I knew I had to grow this summer. I knew summer league was an opportunity for me to prove to people that I could play.

KP: You mentioned working on your body. What have you been trying to do in the weight room?

RG: Pretty much everything, but last year the most important things were my trunk and my legs -- my base, so I could be stronger.

2. The Jazz have allowed 6.9 fewer points per 100 possessions this season with Gobert on the court, per NBA.com/Stats.

KP: When you're in the paint, what are you looking for to protect the rim?

RG: A lot of things. I've just got to know who's coming so I know his tendencies. It can be a lefty or a righty. Is it a guy who might want to try to dunk on me or is he going to try to do a floater?

3. He has cut his foul rate from 4.7 per 36 minutes as a rookie to 3.6 this season.

KP: How has using verticality helped you?

RG: We worked on it a lot last year with the coaches, watching film, because I was fouling. They told me to move, get more movement. Then they told me when someone drives, to jump straight. Now I'm used to it. I don't foul. I don't really foul much.

4. Per NBAminer.com, he has been called for just three goaltending violations this season.

KP: Does that also help you avoid getting called for goaltending?

RG: I think I'm trying to get the timing. When it's close I'm going to try to block it, but when I feel like it's going to be goaltending, I'm just going to focus on the rebound instead of trying to block the shot.

5. He leads the NBA in lowest opponent field-goal percentage at the rim (37.8 percent), according to SportVU data on NBA.com/Stats.

KP: Have you seen the stats about the field-goal percentage you're allowing at the rim? Is that a better measure of your defense than blocks?

RG: Yes. Of course, because I feel like now -- the first part of the season there were people who didn't know who I was -- now, when they see me they try to change the shot and shoot it higher, so you don't see the block in the stats. I think it's a very important stat.

KP: Is forcing a miss as good as blocking a shot?

RG: It's frustrating for me because I prefer blocking shots, but I'm trying to win. As long as they don't score, it's good for me and for the team.

6. He has improved from 8.6 points and 0.6 assists per 36 minutes as a rookie to 11.3 points and 1.8 assists per 36 minutes this season.

KP: Offensively, it seems like you're trying to do more this season. Is that something the coaches have encouraged?

RG: Me and the coaches, of course. The coaches want me to be more aggressive because they know I can score. I've just got to be more aggressive and do that all the time. Sometimes I'm aggressive and sometimes I'm going to try to just pass and run the plays. I feel like when I'm aggressive, I'm better because most of the time people are going to foul me or something is going to happen and my teammates will be more open next time.

7. He has played 335 minutes with Derrick Favors this season (309 since Dec. 1) after playing just 71 together in 2013-14, per NBA.com/Stats.

KP: Have you had to learn how to play with Favors?

RG: I think we always wanted to play together, because I think he plays best at the 4 and I'm at the 5. We're both good passers and I feel like defensively, we're both great. When Derrick is there, I know that he's got my back. We always communicate great defensively and the rebounds are also great, so I think the only thing we have to do is learn to play together offensively.

I think the couple games we had -- I think that was December or January -- we started to play together because I think Enes [Kanter] was hurt. The coaches had to play me and Derrick. I think we got a lot better through the games, learned how to pass to each other and space. We are doing great.
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http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...er-installment-data-dialogue-nba?refresh=true

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Never bet against a GFH.

NBA teams still won't learn. I'm telling you he fell in the combine because he ran slow at the combine. He was a lottery pick. :smh:
 
STAT CHECK — An introduction of PAAC

My fundamental belief in evaluating the game of basketball is to narrow it down to the efficiency of a single possession. The value of players should be based on how they impact each of those possessions. Defensively this is very difficult. Offensively, I believe this takes a huge stride in showing the value of a player inside of a game.

I have created Players Points Above Average Created (PAAC). PAAC (this stat needs a new acronym) shows what players have the largest offensive impact on every game. PAAC evaluates how each player uses a scoring opportunity (FGA or trip to the free throw line) in comparison to the average in the NBA. Therefore, by the end of a game PAAC shows how many points his team has gained or lost compared to an average player in the NBA using those scoring opportunities.

Kevin Durant leads the NBA at 3.9 PAAC (pts per game above average). Steph Curry (3.5) and James Harden (3.3) are next. If a team increases their offensive efficiency (pts per 100 possessions) by one point over the course of a season it translates to roughly 2.7 wins.

Last year, Kevin Durant and LeBron James had historic offensive seasons. Durant lead the NBA with a PAAC of 4.8 and LeBron James was a 4.5. The next closest was James Harden at 3.2 PAAC.

Lance Stephenson does the most damage to his team leaving the Hornets -2.9 pts below league average in his scoring opportunities each night. Michael Carter Williams and Kobe Bryant (-2.7) have the next highest negative impact on their team.

Last year, the 3 players with the worst impact on their team, who played at least 40 games were Josh Smith -2.7 PAAC, Michael Carter Williams -2.1 and Trey Burke -1.8.

Fundamentally, if a player is scoring 23 points a game but using an excessive amount of scoring opportunities he is not helping his team win even if he is scoring 23 points a game. On the flip side it is possible the player using just 10 scoring points a game is doing it with such an amazing efficiency that he is putting the team further above the average than players who score at a higher volume.

The most interesting finding with PAAC is the value of dunkers and 3 point shooters. Dallas is +2.6 above the league average on the few scoring opportunities used by Tyson Chandler. Chandler ranks the 6th best PAC in the NBA. Despite only using 7.5 scoring opportunities a night Tyson Chandler has the 6th biggest positive impact of an offensive player. Other dunkers, DeAndre Jordan is 8th, Hassan Whiteside is 11th and Brandan Wright is 14th.

Kyle Korver only uses 9 scoring opportunities a night, but is the 4th highest impact player in the NBA. Korver is +3.1 pts per game above average on his scoring opportunities. Only Durant, Curry and Harden move their team further above average on a nightly basis. Other high volume three point shooters are also on the top of the list, JJ Redick is 10th and Wesley Matthews is 17thin PAAC.

TOP 10 PAAC

Durant 3.9 PAAC

Curry 3.5

Harden 3.3

Korver 3.1

Anthony Davis 2.7

Tyson Chandler 2.6

Klay Thompson 2.2

DeAndre Jordan 2.0

LeBron James 1.9

J.J. Redick 1.8
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http://weareutahjazz.com/lockedonjazz/2015/03/03/stat-check-an-introduction-of-paac/
 
More Gobert love, this time courtesy of Goldsberry:
French Lessons: Rudy Gobert Is Making Utah an Elite Defensive Team

Last Monday in Utah, Tim Duncan was attempting his 10 millionth career face-up move from the left wing. He took three right-handed dribbles into the middle of the paint before spinning back toward the baseline and rising for his patented bank shot. But the league’s most dominant young defender was there to make sure Duncan’s attempt would never even glance the backboard.





Something’s brewing in Utah. Since the team dealt Enes Kanter on deadline day, the Jazz have won five of six games and suddenly have the look of a team that’s figured something out. That something is defense.

Jazz opponents have looked hapless on the offensive end. Since February 20, the Jazz are giving up only 88 points per 100 possessions, which is not just good, it’s off-the-charts great. And when you look at the teams they’ve defeated since the Kanter deal, the run looks even more impressive.

February 20: 92-76 over Portland
February 23: 90-81 over San Antonio
February 27: 104-82 over Denver
February 28: 82-75 over Milwaukee
March 3: 93-82 over Memphis

Those are some good teams, featuring some great interior scorers, putting up some low scores. But that’s what the post-Kanter Jazz are all about: turning good interior scorers into bad interior scorers.

There could be all sorts of reasons for Utah’s newfound defensive fortitude, but the biggest one is literally the biggest one: 7-foot-1 center Rudy Gobert. On Tuesday night, Marc Gasol and Kosta Koufos combined to go 9-for-25 from the field. On Saturday, the Bucks’ centers made 3 of 16 shots. In the San Antonio game, Tim Duncan, Aron Baynes, and Tiago Splitter shot 10-for-24. In the Portland win, LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez, Meyers Leonard, and Chris Kaman combined to shoot 10-of-32. Gobert is giving French lessons out here, no matter what the pedigree of his opponent.

Since February 1, Utah is the only team in the league holding opponents to under 50 percent shooting inside of eight feet. Sure, it’s a collective effort, and it involves some good scheming by first-year coach Quin Snyder, but it’s clear that Gobert is the most important factor.

Gobert blends athleticism, smarts, and freakish length. Athletic guys that can do what he does tend to be really good at defense.

According to the league’s player-tracking system, out of 160 players that are facing at least three shots per game at the rim, nobody is more effective at disrupting those shots than Gobert; opponents are making only 38 percent of their close-range shots when he is within five feet. Any team that can take away the paint has a huge head start on the way to becoming a great defense. With Kanter out of the picture, Gobert is getting more minutes and opponents are getting fewer layups.

It’s not uncommon to hear people talk about how it’s a point guard’s league these days. If you’re talking about offense, there’s certainly some truth to that. But on the defensive end, it’s still a big man’s game. Elite rim protectors like Gobert are still the most important characters within dominant defenses. Just ask the pre-2014-meltdown Pacers.

Gobert’s impact goes beyond rim protection. His emergence enabled the team to deal Kanter in the first place, which in turn will set the Jazz up to add more diverse young assets. Utah is already one of the youngest teams in the league, but unlike some of those other “young” teams, Utah looks like it is on the verge of establishing a formidable identity, rooted in its defensive play.

Gobert is having a Hibbert effect on the Jazz. He is facilitating a cohesive defensive brand that makes everyone look better. Great rim protectors are the best deodorant. This is a big moment for the Jazz, who have been floundering since the end of the Jerry Sloan era. The combination of good coaching and elite interior defense offers probably the simplest path to success in this league. And considering that Utah was the worst defensive team in the NBA just last season, this turnaround has been nothing short of remarkable. Magnifique, even.
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http://grantland.com/the-triangle/french-lessons-rudy-gobert-is-making-utah-an-elite-defensive-team/
 
Lance Stephenson does the most damage to his team leaving the Hornets -2.9 pts below league average in his scoring opportunities each night. Michael Carter Williams and Kobe Bryant (-2.7) have the next highest negative impact on their team.
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this is hilarious to me. yes i left out the part about josh smith.
 
I feel like the Wizards will be where the Warriors were last summer. Gotta let go to Wittman to harness the true potential of Wall and Beal.
 
Maybe Alvin Gentry if you have an experienced head coach that will open up the offense.
 
PMatic said:
I feel like the Wizards will be where the Warriors were last summer. Gotta let go to Wittman to harness the true potential of Wall and Beal.
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They need to get a coach who embraces analytics.

I'd LOVE for them to make a run at someone like Shaka Smart, but that probably won't happen...however, I am intrigued by D'Antoni.
 
Wrong thread.. Saw NBA and didn't realize this wasn't the season thread
 
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