antidope
Supporter
- Jan 2, 2012
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But why? Hey take this assistant job when theres a HC job out there with your name on it...
2014 NBA Off-Season; Paul George suffers a double-compund-fracture, likely out for season. Speedy re
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by japanair21,
- Start date
- Status
- Sep 18, 2003
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There is only like one available job right now. Lionel will be up for a job next season
do work son
Banned
- May 22, 2010
- 17,118
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There's two vacancies: Lakers and Cavaliers. In all seriousness, is he a leading candidate for either? Genuine question.
Also, Kevin McHale might get axed one of these days
bhzmafia14
your thoughts?
Last edited:
I love BigJ.
But some of you take it too personal when someone else starts this thread
JA is a vet, let him live.
Roster Reload: Charlotte Bobcats.
Roster Reload: Chicago Bulls.
Roster Reload: Houston Rockets.
Roster Reload: Atlanta Hawks.
Roster Reload: Memphis Grizzlies.
Roster Reload: Golden St. Warriors.
Roster Reload: Toronto Raptors.
Roster Reload: Trail Blazers.
Roster Reload: Brooklyn Nets.
Roster Reload: Washington Wizards.
Roster Reload: Indiana Pacers.
Roster Reload: OKC Thunder.
Roster Reload: Miami Heat.
But some of you take it too personal when someone else starts this thread
JA is a vet, let him live.Roster Reload: Charlotte Bobcats.
The final season of the Charlotte Bobcats was perhaps their best ever, though stating that might well be damning with faint praise. The Bobcats won 43 games, one short of the franchise record, and made the playoffs for the second time.
With first-year coach Steve Clifford orchestrating the league's fifth-best defense, Charlotte landed the East's 7-seed despite being outscored on the season. With the roster populated by a mix of veterans and up-and-comers, this final edition of the Bobcats appears to be on more firm footing than its playoff predecessor.
Now, the Charlotte Hornets are reborn, and the question is, Where does the organization go from here? Recent lottery picks Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo stand as contributors but aren't yet foundation pieces. How can Clifford, Michael Jordan and GM Rich Cho hunt down Charlotte's first playoff series win, moving to the next level? Let's take a look using four categories featuring both scouting and advanced-metrics perspectives, as well as an early guess at what the Bobcats' 2014-15 roster could look like.
2014-15 baseline (if all current players returned): 39.0 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets: Players in prime, up and down, coach, ownership?
Elhassan: At this point in time, the Bobcats must look at their core building blocks as Al Jefferson, Kidd-Gilchrist and Kemba Walker, with the rest of the roster forming concentric circles around those three. Jefferson enjoyed a career season, and it's easy to envision him being able to keep up this level of offensive production for seasons to come, as his game does not require any athletic or quickness advantage.
Kidd-Gilchrist took great strides at becoming a savvier defensive player and has the potential to be a perennial All-Defensive team selection with his impressive combination of strength, quickness, size and length. The real question is whether his offensive game can catch up to his defensive prowess, and that largely depends on developing a perimeter jumper that now looks worse than it did at Kentucky. Still, he has gotten better at the type of "ghost cuts" that renowned nonshooter Dwyane Wade has mastered, and as he gets better at that, his offense will grow.
LeBron James, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Kidd-Gilchrist made great strides as a defensive player. Now to get that shot fixed...
Walker needs to continue to refine his shot selection and to transition into a facilitator from a player forced to shoulder the offensive burden for a team that struggles to score. Beyond those three, Gerald Henderson (who continues to show promise as another high-level wing defender) and Jeff Taylor (who missed most of the season to injury) are bright spots for the future, while Josh McRoberts was the perfect complement to Jefferson.
Doolittle: The Bobcats were 21st in weighted-minutes team age, but their best player, Jefferson, is midway through his prime. This was a career season for Jefferson, who should maintain his current level for another season or two. Major contributor McRoberts (6.2 WARP) had a career-best .541 winning percentage, just shy of his .540 mark for Indiana in 2011-12. The next season, he was at .396. Meanwhile, Walker is on the upswing and holds Charlotte's most optimistic five-year projection. Charlotte's overall baseline is modest, as you'd expect of a club that was outscored. Also, Kidd-Gilchrist and Zeller combined for just 0.4 WARP, which doesn't give them much projectability at this juncture. Charlotte's greatest hope for a leap forward is for that duo to move beyond the statistical tracks it has laid so far in the NBA.
II. Shake it up: Changes that need to happen
Elhassan: With a projected 2014-15 payroll of about $45 million, Charlotte can expect to have almost $18 million in cap space, based on a cap projection of about $63.2 million for next season. First and foremost, McRoberts will likely opt out of his $2.8 million to capitalize on the strong season he had, so the Bobcats will either need to re-sign him or look for alternative options. Beyond McRoberts, the biggest needs center around the Bobcats' desperate need for shooting. The midseason acquisition of Luke Ridnour and Gary Neal were meant to alleviate some of those problems, but Ridnour struggled in a Bobcats uniform and is a free agent. Ideally, they can add a cheap option with the ability to space and defend, such as Brandon Rush. Doing that would allow them to spend more to acquire another playmaking guard who could conceivably play alongside Walker, allowing him to concentrate on scoring.
Cody Zeller
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Zeller could slide into McRoberts' spot if the veteran big man leaves via free agency.
Doolittle: With Ben Gordon's onerous salary dropping off the books, along with that of Ridnour, the Bobcats/Hornets will have some room with which to work. Neal and Jefferson are locked into team-friendly deals, while Walker, Kidd-Gilchrist, Biyombo and Zeller are still working on the rookie scale. While I wouldn't yet call Charlotte a free-agent destination, there are a lot worse landing spots in the league right now. If McRoberts opts out, Charlotte could look to Zeller to slide into his position. That changes the spacing of the offense but might be the team's best bet for progress. Charlotte needs wings that better complement each other. On a lot of teams, Henderson would be the energy wing and presumed stopper, but he's lesser in those areas than Kidd-Gilchrist, and the gap will only grow. MKG is an intangibles guy, so you'd like Henderson's measurables to stand out. They don't, though; he's projected for a minus-0.9 WARP for 2014-15. So with that possible cap space, the Bobcats/Hornets need to target the perfect fit to go with Walker and MKG. Problem is, the best free-agent 2-guard is Lance Stephenson, and I'm not sure he fits. University of Washington's C.J. Wilcox might make sense as a draft target.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: Charlotte continues to struggle due to the notion that it is an unattractive destination, and that affects its ability to attract top-flight free agents. Instead, the team will have to continue to dig into the bargain bin of undervalued free agents (like they did with McRoberts) or take chances trading for players with bloated deals in the hope that they can capitalize on the change of scenery.
They have an outside chance at netting two first-round picks this June -- they have the Portland Trail Blazers' and a top eight-protected pick from the Detroit Pistons -- but with the youth on this roster, they might be better served packaging for a proven talent via trade. Finally, the existing talent must improve: Zeller, Taylor, Kidd-Gilchrist and Biyombo all need to take serious steps forward in developing. Otherwise, the Bobcats will likely be stuck in the status quo.
Doolittle: New coaches can, and often do, have a profound impact on defensive efficiency, and Clifford certainly accomplished that with Charlotte. But a 25-place improvement on D screams for regression. Clifford also needs to design a more versatile offense that isn't so heavily dependent on the high-volume ways of Jefferson and Walker. That's where MKG's lack of offensive upside hurts the franchise. He might be the next Andre Iguodala, but Charlotte needs the next James Harden.
As for the organization, now that Gordon is gone and the long-owed pick to the Chicago Bulls will finally manifest, the Hornets will be in better shape than the Bobcats ever were. Jordan has surrounded himself with capable professionals such as Clifford and Cho, and the cap situation going forward is pretty crisp. With luck and wisdom, Charlotte is well positioned to become an annual playoff entrant.
IV. The "Ideal" Roster: A hypothetical scenario
Doolittle: Charlotte has plenty of wiggle room to make a splash. I plugged Stephenson in as a free-agent acquisition, but I'm skeptical both of his fit and Charlotte's ability to sign him. Nevertheless, the name serves as a placeholder to illustrate what the Bobcats/Hornets will look like with a more dynamic third option in the lineup to go with Jefferson and Walker. McRoberts is a wild card in all this. Can Charlotte sign him if he opts out? If so, will doing so impinge other options? Or, worst of all, would his departure mitigate other upgrades?
Ideal 2014-15 roster
Pos Player 2015 Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Al Jefferson 30 $13.5M 8.9
PG Kemba Walker 25 $3.3M 9.3
SG Lance Stephenson 24 $9.5M 1.4
SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 22 $5.2M -0.1
PF Cody Zeller 22 $4.0M 1.3
bC Bismack Biyombo 21 $3.9M 0.6
bPG Gary Neal 31 $3.3M 0.3
bSG Gerald Henderson Jr. 27 $6.0M -0.9
bSF Jeffrey Taylor 26 $0.9M -2.0
bPF Anthony Tolliver 29 $1.6M 0.6
RES1 Chris Douglas Roberts 28 $0.9M 0.0
RES2 C.J. Wilcox 24 $1.0M 0.0
Estimated Payroll: $54.9 million; Updated Win Range: 37 to 40
Notes: Estimated Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Range includes a coaching adjustment.
With first-year coach Steve Clifford orchestrating the league's fifth-best defense, Charlotte landed the East's 7-seed despite being outscored on the season. With the roster populated by a mix of veterans and up-and-comers, this final edition of the Bobcats appears to be on more firm footing than its playoff predecessor.
Now, the Charlotte Hornets are reborn, and the question is, Where does the organization go from here? Recent lottery picks Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo stand as contributors but aren't yet foundation pieces. How can Clifford, Michael Jordan and GM Rich Cho hunt down Charlotte's first playoff series win, moving to the next level? Let's take a look using four categories featuring both scouting and advanced-metrics perspectives, as well as an early guess at what the Bobcats' 2014-15 roster could look like.
2014-15 baseline (if all current players returned): 39.0 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets: Players in prime, up and down, coach, ownership?
Elhassan: At this point in time, the Bobcats must look at their core building blocks as Al Jefferson, Kidd-Gilchrist and Kemba Walker, with the rest of the roster forming concentric circles around those three. Jefferson enjoyed a career season, and it's easy to envision him being able to keep up this level of offensive production for seasons to come, as his game does not require any athletic or quickness advantage.
Kidd-Gilchrist took great strides at becoming a savvier defensive player and has the potential to be a perennial All-Defensive team selection with his impressive combination of strength, quickness, size and length. The real question is whether his offensive game can catch up to his defensive prowess, and that largely depends on developing a perimeter jumper that now looks worse than it did at Kentucky. Still, he has gotten better at the type of "ghost cuts" that renowned nonshooter Dwyane Wade has mastered, and as he gets better at that, his offense will grow.
LeBron James, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Kidd-Gilchrist made great strides as a defensive player. Now to get that shot fixed...
Walker needs to continue to refine his shot selection and to transition into a facilitator from a player forced to shoulder the offensive burden for a team that struggles to score. Beyond those three, Gerald Henderson (who continues to show promise as another high-level wing defender) and Jeff Taylor (who missed most of the season to injury) are bright spots for the future, while Josh McRoberts was the perfect complement to Jefferson.
Doolittle: The Bobcats were 21st in weighted-minutes team age, but their best player, Jefferson, is midway through his prime. This was a career season for Jefferson, who should maintain his current level for another season or two. Major contributor McRoberts (6.2 WARP) had a career-best .541 winning percentage, just shy of his .540 mark for Indiana in 2011-12. The next season, he was at .396. Meanwhile, Walker is on the upswing and holds Charlotte's most optimistic five-year projection. Charlotte's overall baseline is modest, as you'd expect of a club that was outscored. Also, Kidd-Gilchrist and Zeller combined for just 0.4 WARP, which doesn't give them much projectability at this juncture. Charlotte's greatest hope for a leap forward is for that duo to move beyond the statistical tracks it has laid so far in the NBA.
II. Shake it up: Changes that need to happen
Elhassan: With a projected 2014-15 payroll of about $45 million, Charlotte can expect to have almost $18 million in cap space, based on a cap projection of about $63.2 million for next season. First and foremost, McRoberts will likely opt out of his $2.8 million to capitalize on the strong season he had, so the Bobcats will either need to re-sign him or look for alternative options. Beyond McRoberts, the biggest needs center around the Bobcats' desperate need for shooting. The midseason acquisition of Luke Ridnour and Gary Neal were meant to alleviate some of those problems, but Ridnour struggled in a Bobcats uniform and is a free agent. Ideally, they can add a cheap option with the ability to space and defend, such as Brandon Rush. Doing that would allow them to spend more to acquire another playmaking guard who could conceivably play alongside Walker, allowing him to concentrate on scoring.
Cody Zeller
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Zeller could slide into McRoberts' spot if the veteran big man leaves via free agency.
Doolittle: With Ben Gordon's onerous salary dropping off the books, along with that of Ridnour, the Bobcats/Hornets will have some room with which to work. Neal and Jefferson are locked into team-friendly deals, while Walker, Kidd-Gilchrist, Biyombo and Zeller are still working on the rookie scale. While I wouldn't yet call Charlotte a free-agent destination, there are a lot worse landing spots in the league right now. If McRoberts opts out, Charlotte could look to Zeller to slide into his position. That changes the spacing of the offense but might be the team's best bet for progress. Charlotte needs wings that better complement each other. On a lot of teams, Henderson would be the energy wing and presumed stopper, but he's lesser in those areas than Kidd-Gilchrist, and the gap will only grow. MKG is an intangibles guy, so you'd like Henderson's measurables to stand out. They don't, though; he's projected for a minus-0.9 WARP for 2014-15. So with that possible cap space, the Bobcats/Hornets need to target the perfect fit to go with Walker and MKG. Problem is, the best free-agent 2-guard is Lance Stephenson, and I'm not sure he fits. University of Washington's C.J. Wilcox might make sense as a draft target.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: Charlotte continues to struggle due to the notion that it is an unattractive destination, and that affects its ability to attract top-flight free agents. Instead, the team will have to continue to dig into the bargain bin of undervalued free agents (like they did with McRoberts) or take chances trading for players with bloated deals in the hope that they can capitalize on the change of scenery.
They have an outside chance at netting two first-round picks this June -- they have the Portland Trail Blazers' and a top eight-protected pick from the Detroit Pistons -- but with the youth on this roster, they might be better served packaging for a proven talent via trade. Finally, the existing talent must improve: Zeller, Taylor, Kidd-Gilchrist and Biyombo all need to take serious steps forward in developing. Otherwise, the Bobcats will likely be stuck in the status quo.
Doolittle: New coaches can, and often do, have a profound impact on defensive efficiency, and Clifford certainly accomplished that with Charlotte. But a 25-place improvement on D screams for regression. Clifford also needs to design a more versatile offense that isn't so heavily dependent on the high-volume ways of Jefferson and Walker. That's where MKG's lack of offensive upside hurts the franchise. He might be the next Andre Iguodala, but Charlotte needs the next James Harden.
As for the organization, now that Gordon is gone and the long-owed pick to the Chicago Bulls will finally manifest, the Hornets will be in better shape than the Bobcats ever were. Jordan has surrounded himself with capable professionals such as Clifford and Cho, and the cap situation going forward is pretty crisp. With luck and wisdom, Charlotte is well positioned to become an annual playoff entrant.
IV. The "Ideal" Roster: A hypothetical scenario
Doolittle: Charlotte has plenty of wiggle room to make a splash. I plugged Stephenson in as a free-agent acquisition, but I'm skeptical both of his fit and Charlotte's ability to sign him. Nevertheless, the name serves as a placeholder to illustrate what the Bobcats/Hornets will look like with a more dynamic third option in the lineup to go with Jefferson and Walker. McRoberts is a wild card in all this. Can Charlotte sign him if he opts out? If so, will doing so impinge other options? Or, worst of all, would his departure mitigate other upgrades?
Ideal 2014-15 roster
Pos Player 2015 Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Al Jefferson 30 $13.5M 8.9
PG Kemba Walker 25 $3.3M 9.3
SG Lance Stephenson 24 $9.5M 1.4
SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 22 $5.2M -0.1
PF Cody Zeller 22 $4.0M 1.3
bC Bismack Biyombo 21 $3.9M 0.6
bPG Gary Neal 31 $3.3M 0.3
bSG Gerald Henderson Jr. 27 $6.0M -0.9
bSF Jeffrey Taylor 26 $0.9M -2.0
bPF Anthony Tolliver 29 $1.6M 0.6
RES1 Chris Douglas Roberts 28 $0.9M 0.0
RES2 C.J. Wilcox 24 $1.0M 0.0
Estimated Payroll: $54.9 million; Updated Win Range: 37 to 40
Notes: Estimated Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Range includes a coaching adjustment.
Roster Reload: Chicago Bulls.
The Bulls really had no business winning 48 games, or winning the No. 4 seed in a playoff bracket. Three of the team's top four players entering the season -- in terms of salary -- were gone by the beginning of the campaign. Carlos Boozer was there in body, but not so much in production, while Derrick Rose watched Chicago's quick postseason exit in street clothes and Luol Deng, who was traded at midseason, could only sit at home planning his free-agent strategy. The lack of star power was apparent as Chicago fell swiftly to the Washington Wizards.
With Joakim Noah leading the charge, the Bulls went into postseason mode in early February and emerged as the team that no one supposedly wanted to play. But the Wizards were younger, faster and more energetic, underscoring that if Tom Thibodeau's band of overachievers is going to become more than a feel-good story, it has to up the ante in terms of talent. Chicago's two highest-paid players -- Rose and Boozer -- combined for $32.9 million in salary, and minus-1.4 WARP. That the team overcame that inversion of the production-to-payroll pyramid was amazing, but this is the summer Chicago can get itself re-aligned, and return to the title-contending status the Bulls held when Thibodeau took over the team in 2010.
2014-15 baseline (if all current players returned): 50.2 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets
Elhassan: Any discussion about Chicago's core begins and ends with Rose: If you consider him to be a keystone, there are legitimate concerns about his ability to remain healthy and how he'll bounce back from a second knee injury. If you think the Bulls should move on from him, there's the question of the three years of more than $60 million guaranteed remaining on the books. Beyond Rose, the defensive duo Noah and Taj Gibson are on cap-friendly deals and are in the relative primes of their careers (you could argue Gibson still has room for growth as an offensive option), while Jimmy Butler is starting to blossom (although they'll have to come to a decision soon on whether to extend him this summer or risk letting him go to restricted free agency next year).
Taj Gibson
David Banks/USA TODAY Sports
Taj Gibson is in the prime of his career, with potential room for growth.
Doolittle: Assuming Rose gets back on the floor, which we learned this season is not something you can take for granted, the Bulls don't really have the option to remain status quo. Rose's return will in itself shake things up, and accounts for the 50-win baseline for a team with a 2013-14 point differential of a 47-win team, but a number of old players. The Bulls are one of the few teams that still have the amnesty option in their tool kit, and after this postseason, you have to figure they'll use it on Boozer, as has long been assumed. Doing so opens up several avenues for making over the roster this summer. They'll likely try to figure out how to bring prized European stash Nikola Mirotic over, but it's far from a no-brainer they'll be able to do so. Chicago also has two top-20 picks in the draft, and coveted young players on team-friendly contracts like Butler, Gibson and even Noah, if you want to get crazy. Chicago has no shortage of options as the offseason dawns.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: With the salary cap expected to jump to $63 million (and the luxury tax to $77 million), the Bulls will have more flexibility to enhance their roster, provided they are willing to seek an amnesty of Boozer to erase his cap hit (a big assumption for the notoriously thrifty Bulls ownership). Going after Carmelo Anthony in free agency won't come cheap, despite his intimations that he'll accept a pay cut to go to a winning situation. Anthony answers the question of having a go-to scorer, something Chicago has lacked in Rose's absence. Of course, they'd also be opening themselves to the same type of isolation offense that has bedeviled the New York Knicks (albeit with a much better defense), not to mention the Knicks' chances of retaining Anthony with the charm of Phil Jackson's triangle.
Another possibility that has been discussed is the signing of 2011 draft pick Mirotic from Spain. Because it's been three years since he's been drafted, the Bulls would be able to sign him to a deal larger than the rookie scale prescribed to his draft slot. Mirotic is a skilled, scoring stretch big, and again gives Chicago some scoring punch, albeit not with the certainty that Anthony brings.
Carmelo Anthony
Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports
Could Carmelo Anthony be the answer to Chicago's need for a big time scorer?
Other free agent targets that would fit the Bulls' need for scoring punch include Eric Bledsoe, Lance Stephenson and Rudy Gay, all of whom would come at a less expensive price tag than Anthony, but pricier than Mirotic.
Doolittle: Option No. 1, in my opinion, is a pursuit of Anthony through free agency. A starting five of Noah, Rose, Butler, Anthony and Gibson would be one of the most well-balanced and dynamic units in the league, and it would be ready to win now. The catch is that do so, the Bulls would probably have to forgo pursuit of Mirotic, as they'd need to clear his cap hold to create room for Anthony. Also, as colleague Larry **** has outlined, most trade scenarios involving Anthony would disrupt Chicago's existing core. To land him, the Bulls would have to hope that Anthony indeed is willing to make major salary concessions in order to pursue a championship.
Option No. 2 is to bring over Mirotic. You might be able to do that by staying over the cap, which would allow them to use a full mid-level exception for the Croatian big man. Then you'd try to trade Boozer's expiring deal to bring back a wing scorer to play the 3. (Not an easy option.) You can also amnesty Boozer, create as much cap space as possible, sign Mirotic and use the remaining room to get that aforementioned wing scorer. Strangely enough, Deng could prove to be the best alternative in that scenario. For me, the ideal outcome is to dangle a ring chase in front of Anthony, give him an all allowable contract options, and hope he'll accept being massively underpaid.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: As I mentioned earlier, the decision to amnesty Boozer sounds like a slam dunk on paper, but is not as straight forward for the Bulls. Paying almost $17 million for Boozer to play for someone else might be a tough sell to the owner, especially considering the Bulls would be expecting to spend more than that in replacement players (even though those players would make Chicago better). An alternate solution would be to try to package some of the picks owed to the Bulls (2014 first from Charlotte, protected future firsts from Cleveland and Sacramento) with Boozer's deal to entice an under-the-cap team to swallow his deal.
Doolittle: The Bulls have perhaps the widest range of possibilities of any team entering the summer because of the uncertainty surrounding Rose's long-term durability and productivity. Since he hasn't played effectively in the regular season in more than two years, the uncertainty could scare away a marquee free agent like Anthony. That would leave the Bulls hoping that Mirotic has a Nowitzki-like impact, or else Chicago would be at a deficit in terms of elite-level talent compared with the current super powers of the league.
IV. The Perfect Roster
Ideal 20140-15 roster
Pos Player 2015 Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Joakim Noah 30 $12.2m 10.7
PG Derrick Rose 26 $18.9m 9.2
SG Jimmy Butler 25 $2.0m 3.7
SF Carmelo Anthony 31 $12.5m 11.5
PF Taj Gibson 29 $8.0m 2.1
bC Greg Smith 24 $0.9m 0.0
bPG Jimmer Fredette 27 $0.9m 0.4
bSG Kirk Hinrich 34 $2.7m 0.2
bSF Mike Dunleavy Jr. 34 $3.3m 3.4
bPF Elton Brand 36 $0.9m 1.1
RES1 Tony Snell 23 $1.5m -0.2
RES2 Adreian Payne 23 $1.3m 0.4
Est. Payroll: $67.7 million; Updated Win Range: 57 to 62
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
Doolittle: These suggested rosters are kind of Utopian, but at this point of the process, why not dream? In this scenario, Anthony has signed for $12.5 million for his first season. ("Heck no!" Anthony may be yelling at this very moment.) The figure reflects the amount of cap space I can see Chicago creating without ejecting key parts, other than Boozer. Hinrich would have to be renounced, but he could be brought back with a room exception. Meanwhile, Brand is what the Bulls are left with by choosing the Melo option over Mirotic, and Payne is a good match with one of the draft picks.
With Joakim Noah leading the charge, the Bulls went into postseason mode in early February and emerged as the team that no one supposedly wanted to play. But the Wizards were younger, faster and more energetic, underscoring that if Tom Thibodeau's band of overachievers is going to become more than a feel-good story, it has to up the ante in terms of talent. Chicago's two highest-paid players -- Rose and Boozer -- combined for $32.9 million in salary, and minus-1.4 WARP. That the team overcame that inversion of the production-to-payroll pyramid was amazing, but this is the summer Chicago can get itself re-aligned, and return to the title-contending status the Bulls held when Thibodeau took over the team in 2010.
2014-15 baseline (if all current players returned): 50.2 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets
Elhassan: Any discussion about Chicago's core begins and ends with Rose: If you consider him to be a keystone, there are legitimate concerns about his ability to remain healthy and how he'll bounce back from a second knee injury. If you think the Bulls should move on from him, there's the question of the three years of more than $60 million guaranteed remaining on the books. Beyond Rose, the defensive duo Noah and Taj Gibson are on cap-friendly deals and are in the relative primes of their careers (you could argue Gibson still has room for growth as an offensive option), while Jimmy Butler is starting to blossom (although they'll have to come to a decision soon on whether to extend him this summer or risk letting him go to restricted free agency next year).
Taj Gibson
David Banks/USA TODAY Sports
Taj Gibson is in the prime of his career, with potential room for growth.
Doolittle: Assuming Rose gets back on the floor, which we learned this season is not something you can take for granted, the Bulls don't really have the option to remain status quo. Rose's return will in itself shake things up, and accounts for the 50-win baseline for a team with a 2013-14 point differential of a 47-win team, but a number of old players. The Bulls are one of the few teams that still have the amnesty option in their tool kit, and after this postseason, you have to figure they'll use it on Boozer, as has long been assumed. Doing so opens up several avenues for making over the roster this summer. They'll likely try to figure out how to bring prized European stash Nikola Mirotic over, but it's far from a no-brainer they'll be able to do so. Chicago also has two top-20 picks in the draft, and coveted young players on team-friendly contracts like Butler, Gibson and even Noah, if you want to get crazy. Chicago has no shortage of options as the offseason dawns.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: With the salary cap expected to jump to $63 million (and the luxury tax to $77 million), the Bulls will have more flexibility to enhance their roster, provided they are willing to seek an amnesty of Boozer to erase his cap hit (a big assumption for the notoriously thrifty Bulls ownership). Going after Carmelo Anthony in free agency won't come cheap, despite his intimations that he'll accept a pay cut to go to a winning situation. Anthony answers the question of having a go-to scorer, something Chicago has lacked in Rose's absence. Of course, they'd also be opening themselves to the same type of isolation offense that has bedeviled the New York Knicks (albeit with a much better defense), not to mention the Knicks' chances of retaining Anthony with the charm of Phil Jackson's triangle.
Another possibility that has been discussed is the signing of 2011 draft pick Mirotic from Spain. Because it's been three years since he's been drafted, the Bulls would be able to sign him to a deal larger than the rookie scale prescribed to his draft slot. Mirotic is a skilled, scoring stretch big, and again gives Chicago some scoring punch, albeit not with the certainty that Anthony brings.
Carmelo Anthony
Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports
Could Carmelo Anthony be the answer to Chicago's need for a big time scorer?
Other free agent targets that would fit the Bulls' need for scoring punch include Eric Bledsoe, Lance Stephenson and Rudy Gay, all of whom would come at a less expensive price tag than Anthony, but pricier than Mirotic.
Doolittle: Option No. 1, in my opinion, is a pursuit of Anthony through free agency. A starting five of Noah, Rose, Butler, Anthony and Gibson would be one of the most well-balanced and dynamic units in the league, and it would be ready to win now. The catch is that do so, the Bulls would probably have to forgo pursuit of Mirotic, as they'd need to clear his cap hold to create room for Anthony. Also, as colleague Larry **** has outlined, most trade scenarios involving Anthony would disrupt Chicago's existing core. To land him, the Bulls would have to hope that Anthony indeed is willing to make major salary concessions in order to pursue a championship.
Option No. 2 is to bring over Mirotic. You might be able to do that by staying over the cap, which would allow them to use a full mid-level exception for the Croatian big man. Then you'd try to trade Boozer's expiring deal to bring back a wing scorer to play the 3. (Not an easy option.) You can also amnesty Boozer, create as much cap space as possible, sign Mirotic and use the remaining room to get that aforementioned wing scorer. Strangely enough, Deng could prove to be the best alternative in that scenario. For me, the ideal outcome is to dangle a ring chase in front of Anthony, give him an all allowable contract options, and hope he'll accept being massively underpaid.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: As I mentioned earlier, the decision to amnesty Boozer sounds like a slam dunk on paper, but is not as straight forward for the Bulls. Paying almost $17 million for Boozer to play for someone else might be a tough sell to the owner, especially considering the Bulls would be expecting to spend more than that in replacement players (even though those players would make Chicago better). An alternate solution would be to try to package some of the picks owed to the Bulls (2014 first from Charlotte, protected future firsts from Cleveland and Sacramento) with Boozer's deal to entice an under-the-cap team to swallow his deal.
Doolittle: The Bulls have perhaps the widest range of possibilities of any team entering the summer because of the uncertainty surrounding Rose's long-term durability and productivity. Since he hasn't played effectively in the regular season in more than two years, the uncertainty could scare away a marquee free agent like Anthony. That would leave the Bulls hoping that Mirotic has a Nowitzki-like impact, or else Chicago would be at a deficit in terms of elite-level talent compared with the current super powers of the league.
IV. The Perfect Roster
Ideal 20140-15 roster
Pos Player 2015 Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Joakim Noah 30 $12.2m 10.7
PG Derrick Rose 26 $18.9m 9.2
SG Jimmy Butler 25 $2.0m 3.7
SF Carmelo Anthony 31 $12.5m 11.5
PF Taj Gibson 29 $8.0m 2.1
bC Greg Smith 24 $0.9m 0.0
bPG Jimmer Fredette 27 $0.9m 0.4
bSG Kirk Hinrich 34 $2.7m 0.2
bSF Mike Dunleavy Jr. 34 $3.3m 3.4
bPF Elton Brand 36 $0.9m 1.1
RES1 Tony Snell 23 $1.5m -0.2
RES2 Adreian Payne 23 $1.3m 0.4
Est. Payroll: $67.7 million; Updated Win Range: 57 to 62
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
Doolittle: These suggested rosters are kind of Utopian, but at this point of the process, why not dream? In this scenario, Anthony has signed for $12.5 million for his first season. ("Heck no!" Anthony may be yelling at this very moment.) The figure reflects the amount of cap space I can see Chicago creating without ejecting key parts, other than Boozer. Hinrich would have to be renounced, but he could be brought back with a room exception. Meanwhile, Brand is what the Bulls are left with by choosing the Melo option over Mirotic, and Payne is a good match with one of the draft picks.
Roster Reload: Houston Rockets.
Interpreting the Houston Rockets' season is defined by the type of person you are: If you're an optimist, you'll point to a 54-win campaign, an improved defense that was in the top half of the league, and homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs; if you're a pessimist, you point out that the perimeter defense was less than desirable, the team underachieved in wins and got its lunch handed to it in a first round matchup against a team it owned in the regular season -- even if, as GM Daryl Morey tweeted after their Game 4 loss, they were on the wrong end of coin flips.
The Rockets enter the offseason with some potential cap flexibility and a talented roster needing minor tweaks, but also a dark cloud of questions about the viability of their superstar combo of James Harden and Dwight Howard, and whether head coach Kevin McHale is the right man for the job.
2014-15 STATUS QUO BASELINE: 61.4 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: It would be hard to find someone who could find fault in the Howard acquisition, as he's been everything Houston has hoped and dreamed: an elite defensive anchor, high level rebounder, and reliable offensive option, particularly as a roll man. The discourse about his post play has been overblown. Playoff struggles aside, it was another banner year for Harden as the arguable best shooting guard in the game (at the very least, the most efficient). At the tender age of 24, it's conceivable that we haven't seen the best that Harden has to offer, as he searches for that equilibrium between leading scorer and facilitating for others. Defensively, he's been a train wreck, and that's something that needs to be addressed, especially as the Blazers made it a point to exploit this weakness with Wesley Matthews (hardly an offensive force). Chandler Parsons is the perfect third banana as a good shooter who can also put the ball on the floor and make a play, and has room for improvement as his role grows, while Patrick Beverley showed that the defensive boost he brought in last year's postseason was no fluke.
James Harden
Sam Forencich/NBAE/Getty Images
Have we seen the best James Harden has to offer?
Doolittle: Your eyes may well be popping out at the Rockets' baseline projection, and they probably should. These projections are early and rough, but they do speak to the potential of the roster Morey has put together. This basic set of projections doesn't cop to the defensive problems that Houston must solve. The Rockets allowed more than 114 points per 100 possessions during their first four games against Portland, easily the worst mark among playoff teams. However, consider this: During the regular season, Houston posted a point differential of a 53-win team in an usually tough conference, and yet ranked just 24th with a minutes-weighted team age of 25.7. Given the likely improvements of nearly every rotation player and a healthy status quo from Omer Asik, an improvement into the upper-50s is a definite possibility for Houston, especially if it can enhance a finesse defense that posted the lowest foul rate in the league.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: Houston has two valuable contributing backups who NEED to be off the roster as soon as possible: Jeremy Lin and Asik. The nature of their contracts calls for the cash-out payment of about $15 million apiece. As a result, they become overly expensive backups and a luxury Houston neither needs nor can afford. On the bright side, they still hold value as players with the potential to start on a playoff team (Asik moreso than Lin), and that should assist the Rockets in their pursuit of help. One such target could be Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap, who would fit the Rockets' desire for a power forward who can space the floor and be versatile defensively. Millsap is entering the final year of his deal, which calls for him to make $9.5 million, and a Millsap-for-Asik deal makes sense for Atlanta as a defensive anchor they so desperately need.
Josh Smith
Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images
The addition of Josh Smith could help with some of Houston's perimeter issues.
Another option would be to pursue Josh Smith of the Detroit Pistons. He fits the bill as a lockdown defender who can shore up some of Houston's perimeter issues, and has a prior relationship with Howard. Obtaining him from Detroit might be easier in terms of assets given up, but will be costlier in terms of dollars and cents (more than $40 million owed over the next three seasons). Finally, they'd need a solid backup point guard for relatively cheap, preferably one who can create for others (a role Beverley struggles at); Luke Ridnour could fit that role well.
Doolittle: Unlike the last couple of years when Morey was transitioning his roster, Houston has a little more certainty this time around in terms of returning players. He's got seven players already under contract, with only Howard having more than four years of experience. This doesn't include likely returnees Beverley, Parsons and Troy Daniels, who have non-guaranteed deals or team options. The Houston roster is not yet a finished product by any stretch, and the organization's investment in the D-League means that it should keep uncovering cheap, effective role players for its system such as Daniels.
That will leave Morey to improve the core incrementally when he can. Howard and Harden are constants, so the best chance to add an impact high salary would be to deal the expiring deals of Lin and Asik in a package. They're good players, but they had a combined cap hit of $16.4 million to produce 3.16 WARP, which is worth around $7 million. Carmelo Anthony makes some sense in a sign-and-trade, though if you combine Anthony and Harden's usage rate (around 60 percent), you have to worry about Howard's touches.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: The underlying tension between Harden and Howard about how the offense flows (outside-in or inside-out) needs to be addressed ASAP, as a one-two punch isn't very effective when it's self-inflicted. For many, the responsibility of making these two players realize they need each other falls on the head coach, and McHale has seemed overwhelmed at times by the dynamic. He's entering the final year of his deal, so one has to wonder whether the pressure of being a lame-duck coach will allow him to coach freely.
Beyond that, Houston's "issues" are mostly cap-related: Can they dump the Lin and Asik deals easily; can they acquire a defensively versatile forward for a good price; and can they budget enough money leftover to pay Parsons and Beverley in the near future (both are scheduled to become free agents in 2015)?
Doolittle: Hopefully it was just a learning season, but there were a couple of aspects of the Portland loss that are concerning. Harden's inefficiency was the standout failing -- a usage rate north of 30, with a true shooting percentage nearly 150 points of his regular-season mark. This suggests the Rockets need another shot creator, or at least Harden needs to show an increased willingness to back off during key possessions. Also, there were too many instances in which Howard's diminished explosiveness was apparent. His regular-season ATH ratings the last four years: 31.0, 30.7, 26.0 and 25.1. It's a bad trend for a player coming off the first season of a big contract. Still, the Rockets have cast their die with this foundation, so they have to proceed accordingly. Nevertheless, the sooner Houston finds its third wheel -- whether it's from player development or an acquisition -- the better.
IV. The Perfect Roster
Ideal 20140-15 roster
Pos Player 2015 Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Dwight Howard 28 $21.4m 11.0
PG Patrick Beverley 25 $0.9m 4.6
SG James Harden 24 $14.7m 14.5
SF Chandler Parsons 25 $1.0m 5.6
PF Paul Millsap 28 $9.5m 7.5
bC Mitch McGary 22 $0.5m 0.0
bPG Jeremy Lin 25 $8.4m 2.5
bSG Troy Daniels 22 $0.8m 3.2
bSF Francisco Garcia 32 $1.3m 0.5
bPF Terrence Jones 22 $1.6m 3.1
RES1 Omri Casspi 25 $1.1m 0.8
RES2 KJ McDaniels 21 $1.1m 0.0
Est. Payroll: $62.4 million; Updated Win Range: 59 to 64
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold = new player.
Elhassan: I went a conservative route for the projected roster, assuming that trading Lin is easier said than done. Obviously moving him would create much more cap space, allowing Houston to have more ambitious targets in free agency, like Kyle Lowry or Eric Bledsoe. As is, making a move for Millsap gives Houston the most financially flexible upgrade to its roster, while drafting K.J. McDaniels from Clemson at 25 gives it a defensive stopper to groom in the D-League, along with second round sleeper Mitch McGary.
The Rockets enter the offseason with some potential cap flexibility and a talented roster needing minor tweaks, but also a dark cloud of questions about the viability of their superstar combo of James Harden and Dwight Howard, and whether head coach Kevin McHale is the right man for the job.
2014-15 STATUS QUO BASELINE: 61.4 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: It would be hard to find someone who could find fault in the Howard acquisition, as he's been everything Houston has hoped and dreamed: an elite defensive anchor, high level rebounder, and reliable offensive option, particularly as a roll man. The discourse about his post play has been overblown. Playoff struggles aside, it was another banner year for Harden as the arguable best shooting guard in the game (at the very least, the most efficient). At the tender age of 24, it's conceivable that we haven't seen the best that Harden has to offer, as he searches for that equilibrium between leading scorer and facilitating for others. Defensively, he's been a train wreck, and that's something that needs to be addressed, especially as the Blazers made it a point to exploit this weakness with Wesley Matthews (hardly an offensive force). Chandler Parsons is the perfect third banana as a good shooter who can also put the ball on the floor and make a play, and has room for improvement as his role grows, while Patrick Beverley showed that the defensive boost he brought in last year's postseason was no fluke.
James Harden
Sam Forencich/NBAE/Getty Images
Have we seen the best James Harden has to offer?
Doolittle: Your eyes may well be popping out at the Rockets' baseline projection, and they probably should. These projections are early and rough, but they do speak to the potential of the roster Morey has put together. This basic set of projections doesn't cop to the defensive problems that Houston must solve. The Rockets allowed more than 114 points per 100 possessions during their first four games against Portland, easily the worst mark among playoff teams. However, consider this: During the regular season, Houston posted a point differential of a 53-win team in an usually tough conference, and yet ranked just 24th with a minutes-weighted team age of 25.7. Given the likely improvements of nearly every rotation player and a healthy status quo from Omer Asik, an improvement into the upper-50s is a definite possibility for Houston, especially if it can enhance a finesse defense that posted the lowest foul rate in the league.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: Houston has two valuable contributing backups who NEED to be off the roster as soon as possible: Jeremy Lin and Asik. The nature of their contracts calls for the cash-out payment of about $15 million apiece. As a result, they become overly expensive backups and a luxury Houston neither needs nor can afford. On the bright side, they still hold value as players with the potential to start on a playoff team (Asik moreso than Lin), and that should assist the Rockets in their pursuit of help. One such target could be Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap, who would fit the Rockets' desire for a power forward who can space the floor and be versatile defensively. Millsap is entering the final year of his deal, which calls for him to make $9.5 million, and a Millsap-for-Asik deal makes sense for Atlanta as a defensive anchor they so desperately need.
Josh Smith
Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images
The addition of Josh Smith could help with some of Houston's perimeter issues.
Another option would be to pursue Josh Smith of the Detroit Pistons. He fits the bill as a lockdown defender who can shore up some of Houston's perimeter issues, and has a prior relationship with Howard. Obtaining him from Detroit might be easier in terms of assets given up, but will be costlier in terms of dollars and cents (more than $40 million owed over the next three seasons). Finally, they'd need a solid backup point guard for relatively cheap, preferably one who can create for others (a role Beverley struggles at); Luke Ridnour could fit that role well.
Doolittle: Unlike the last couple of years when Morey was transitioning his roster, Houston has a little more certainty this time around in terms of returning players. He's got seven players already under contract, with only Howard having more than four years of experience. This doesn't include likely returnees Beverley, Parsons and Troy Daniels, who have non-guaranteed deals or team options. The Houston roster is not yet a finished product by any stretch, and the organization's investment in the D-League means that it should keep uncovering cheap, effective role players for its system such as Daniels.
That will leave Morey to improve the core incrementally when he can. Howard and Harden are constants, so the best chance to add an impact high salary would be to deal the expiring deals of Lin and Asik in a package. They're good players, but they had a combined cap hit of $16.4 million to produce 3.16 WARP, which is worth around $7 million. Carmelo Anthony makes some sense in a sign-and-trade, though if you combine Anthony and Harden's usage rate (around 60 percent), you have to worry about Howard's touches.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: The underlying tension between Harden and Howard about how the offense flows (outside-in or inside-out) needs to be addressed ASAP, as a one-two punch isn't very effective when it's self-inflicted. For many, the responsibility of making these two players realize they need each other falls on the head coach, and McHale has seemed overwhelmed at times by the dynamic. He's entering the final year of his deal, so one has to wonder whether the pressure of being a lame-duck coach will allow him to coach freely.
Beyond that, Houston's "issues" are mostly cap-related: Can they dump the Lin and Asik deals easily; can they acquire a defensively versatile forward for a good price; and can they budget enough money leftover to pay Parsons and Beverley in the near future (both are scheduled to become free agents in 2015)?
Doolittle: Hopefully it was just a learning season, but there were a couple of aspects of the Portland loss that are concerning. Harden's inefficiency was the standout failing -- a usage rate north of 30, with a true shooting percentage nearly 150 points of his regular-season mark. This suggests the Rockets need another shot creator, or at least Harden needs to show an increased willingness to back off during key possessions. Also, there were too many instances in which Howard's diminished explosiveness was apparent. His regular-season ATH ratings the last four years: 31.0, 30.7, 26.0 and 25.1. It's a bad trend for a player coming off the first season of a big contract. Still, the Rockets have cast their die with this foundation, so they have to proceed accordingly. Nevertheless, the sooner Houston finds its third wheel -- whether it's from player development or an acquisition -- the better.
IV. The Perfect Roster
Ideal 20140-15 roster
Pos Player 2015 Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Dwight Howard 28 $21.4m 11.0
PG Patrick Beverley 25 $0.9m 4.6
SG James Harden 24 $14.7m 14.5
SF Chandler Parsons 25 $1.0m 5.6
PF Paul Millsap 28 $9.5m 7.5
bC Mitch McGary 22 $0.5m 0.0
bPG Jeremy Lin 25 $8.4m 2.5
bSG Troy Daniels 22 $0.8m 3.2
bSF Francisco Garcia 32 $1.3m 0.5
bPF Terrence Jones 22 $1.6m 3.1
RES1 Omri Casspi 25 $1.1m 0.8
RES2 KJ McDaniels 21 $1.1m 0.0
Est. Payroll: $62.4 million; Updated Win Range: 59 to 64
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold = new player.
Elhassan: I went a conservative route for the projected roster, assuming that trading Lin is easier said than done. Obviously moving him would create much more cap space, allowing Houston to have more ambitious targets in free agency, like Kyle Lowry or Eric Bledsoe. As is, making a move for Millsap gives Houston the most financially flexible upgrade to its roster, while drafting K.J. McDaniels from Clemson at 25 gives it a defensive stopper to groom in the D-League, along with second round sleeper Mitch McGary.
Roster Reload: Atlanta Hawks.
Given how Atlanta played this season when it had at least a couple of healthy, NBA-caliber big men, it should have been no great surprise that they pushed an Indiana team that was not exactly peaking entering the postseason. Lots of times, when you have a playoff series upset -- or near upset, as in this case -- the shock wears off with the benefit of hindsight, because the upstart in the matchup turns out to be a really good outfit that just happened to catch their stride at the most important time of the year.
There might be some of that going on in Atlanta. First-year coach Mike Budenholzer has established an efficient, fun style of play, and general manager Danny Ferry has lots of leeway to take his evolving roster in any number of exciting possible directions.
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 48.8 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Al Horford remains possibly the most underrated player in the league, and while two of his past three seasons have been decimated by injury, his more-than-reasonable salary of $12 million per year combined with his relatively young age (he's just 27) make him an ideal cornerstone for the franchise. The silver lining to Horford's absence has been the growth of Paul Millsap, who raised his game to All-Star heights, fully unleashing a vast repertoire of offensive game that would have seemed far-fetched a few years ago as a backup power forward in Utah.
Kyle Korver, Paul George
Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images
Kyle Korver proved his worth this season and should be a cornerstone in Atlanta.
Meanwhile, Kyle Korver justified the $24 million investment the Hawks made in him last summer, solidifying his status as the game's great shooter with a lot of "gravity" (stretching defenses) -- and, in fact, a late-season, six-game absence almost torpedoed the Hawks' playoff hopes. Jeff Teague was serviceable and stepped his game up a notch in the playoffs against the Pacers.
Doolittle: The Hawks were 30-16 when Korver, Teague, DeMarre Carroll and Millsap were in the starting lineup along with one of the Atlanta's top three big men: Horford, Pero Antic or Elton Brand. That's a pace of 53 wins over a full season. Danny Ferry has his top six players locked up for next season, all on team-friendly deals -- assuming Horford returns to full health from his torn pectoral. While Atlanta finished 16th and 15th in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively, the Hawks ranked 10th on offense and 13th on defense through Dec. 26, the date Horford played his last game. That serves as a good baseline for this club moving forward, as Korver is the only starter beyond his athletic prime, but his skill-based game should hold up fine for the next few years.
The Hawks had terrific chemistry, which is a testament to Ferry's team-building strategies. And while you want to be careful how you shake that up, the fact of the matter is without another top-flight talent, the Hawks probably can't be more than a second-tier team. Ferry realizes this of course, and that's why Atlanta has the flexibility to make a significant acquisition when the opportunity presents itself.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: Atlanta has positioned itself to have considerable cap flexibility while still having its core under contract. While this encourages fantasies of acquiring high-priced free agents (a max offer sheet for Eric Bledsoe, for example), a more likely scenario would have the Hawks continue to accumulate assets by being able to absorb short-term toxic salaries in exchange for draft pick considerations.
In this manner, Atlanta can add supporting cast members who might not be worth their paychecks but can still contribute, while bringing with them valuable future first-rounders. In terms of tradeable assets, the rights to 2013-draftee Lucas Nogueira had been rumored to be in play around the trade deadline and might be the type of deal sweetener to help grease a deal.
Lucas Bebe Nogueira
Mike Stobe/Getty Images
The Hawks drafted Nogueira, who could prove valuable long term or as a trade asset.
Doolittle: The Hawks have the highest non-lottery pick in June at No. 15, as well as the aforementioned Nogueira stashed overseas. Nogueira is a head-turning, 7-foot athlete, and has a chance to be a high-energy, impact defender of the rim. He'd boost a defense that ranked 28th in block rate in 2013-14 and would have the luxury of developing in a niche role behind Millsap and Horford, while playing alongside Antic on the second unit.
As for a splashier move, how about a trade? The Rockets might have to part ways with an allegedly disgruntled Omer Asik and at the same time, they must figure out what to do about Chandler Parsons' team option. If they exercise it, he can become an unrestricted free agent next season, and unless Houston decides he's the third foundation player to go with James Harden and Dwight Howard, there might not be money to keep him. If they don't pick up the option, Parsons becomes a restricted free agent this summer, and he's a guy the market is really going to like.
Daryl Morey can address both issues by allowing Parsons to become an RFA, then ship him with Asik in a sign-and-trade scenario to Atlanta for Millsap and Carroll. Millsap becomes a high-level third wheel for Houston, while Carroll is remarkably similar to Parsons, albeit with a lower ceiling, and better defense. Asik upgrades the Hawks' defense and pushes Horford to power forward, while Parsons is an upgrade over Carroll. An Asik, Teague, Korver, Parsons and Horford lineup offers a similar dynamic to what Gregg Popovich has in San Antonio.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: Despite being a popular destination on NBA road trips, Atlanta remains exactly that: a nice place to visit. The Hawks have traditionally struggled to attract the type of transcendent free agents who can change the fortunes of a franchise. In fact, in the past 25 years the Hawks have successfully signed just three big-name free agents: Dikembe Mutombo in 1996, Joe Johnson in 2005, and Millsap in 2013. And you can make the argument that all three players arrived in Atlanta with smaller reputations than the ones they built there.
Resigning yourself to a strategy of unearthing diamonds in the rough and accumulating assets in the hopes of completing a blockbuster deal someday can place a strain on a front office that can be unfairly judged as incapable of securing a superstar.
Doolittle: Ferry really has the Hawks in a great place. The big hurdle to my proposed makeover is simple: Morey might not want to do it, especially because Parsons is so well embedded in Houston's team culture.
IV. The "Ideal" Roster:
The "Ideal" Roster
Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Omer Asik 29 $8.4m 1.8
PG Jeff Teague 27 $8.0m 4.6
SG Kyle Korver 34 $6.3m 4.4
SF Chandler Parsons 27 $9.0m 5.7
PF Al Horford 30 $12.0m 8.1
bC Pero Antic 33 $1.3m 1.4
bPG Shelvin Mack 25 $3.0m 0.7
bSG Louis Williams 29 $5.5m 3.7
bSF Mike Scott 27 $3.0m 0.9
bPF Lucas Nogueira 21 $1.5m -0.3
RES1 Dennis Schroder 23 $1.7m -0.9
RES2 James Young 20 $1.5m 0.1
Est. Payroll: $62.2 million; Updated Win Range: 41 to 45
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
There might be some of that going on in Atlanta. First-year coach Mike Budenholzer has established an efficient, fun style of play, and general manager Danny Ferry has lots of leeway to take his evolving roster in any number of exciting possible directions.
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 48.8 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Al Horford remains possibly the most underrated player in the league, and while two of his past three seasons have been decimated by injury, his more-than-reasonable salary of $12 million per year combined with his relatively young age (he's just 27) make him an ideal cornerstone for the franchise. The silver lining to Horford's absence has been the growth of Paul Millsap, who raised his game to All-Star heights, fully unleashing a vast repertoire of offensive game that would have seemed far-fetched a few years ago as a backup power forward in Utah.
Kyle Korver, Paul George
Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images
Kyle Korver proved his worth this season and should be a cornerstone in Atlanta.
Meanwhile, Kyle Korver justified the $24 million investment the Hawks made in him last summer, solidifying his status as the game's great shooter with a lot of "gravity" (stretching defenses) -- and, in fact, a late-season, six-game absence almost torpedoed the Hawks' playoff hopes. Jeff Teague was serviceable and stepped his game up a notch in the playoffs against the Pacers.
Doolittle: The Hawks were 30-16 when Korver, Teague, DeMarre Carroll and Millsap were in the starting lineup along with one of the Atlanta's top three big men: Horford, Pero Antic or Elton Brand. That's a pace of 53 wins over a full season. Danny Ferry has his top six players locked up for next season, all on team-friendly deals -- assuming Horford returns to full health from his torn pectoral. While Atlanta finished 16th and 15th in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively, the Hawks ranked 10th on offense and 13th on defense through Dec. 26, the date Horford played his last game. That serves as a good baseline for this club moving forward, as Korver is the only starter beyond his athletic prime, but his skill-based game should hold up fine for the next few years.
The Hawks had terrific chemistry, which is a testament to Ferry's team-building strategies. And while you want to be careful how you shake that up, the fact of the matter is without another top-flight talent, the Hawks probably can't be more than a second-tier team. Ferry realizes this of course, and that's why Atlanta has the flexibility to make a significant acquisition when the opportunity presents itself.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: Atlanta has positioned itself to have considerable cap flexibility while still having its core under contract. While this encourages fantasies of acquiring high-priced free agents (a max offer sheet for Eric Bledsoe, for example), a more likely scenario would have the Hawks continue to accumulate assets by being able to absorb short-term toxic salaries in exchange for draft pick considerations.
In this manner, Atlanta can add supporting cast members who might not be worth their paychecks but can still contribute, while bringing with them valuable future first-rounders. In terms of tradeable assets, the rights to 2013-draftee Lucas Nogueira had been rumored to be in play around the trade deadline and might be the type of deal sweetener to help grease a deal.
Lucas Bebe Nogueira
Mike Stobe/Getty Images
The Hawks drafted Nogueira, who could prove valuable long term or as a trade asset.
Doolittle: The Hawks have the highest non-lottery pick in June at No. 15, as well as the aforementioned Nogueira stashed overseas. Nogueira is a head-turning, 7-foot athlete, and has a chance to be a high-energy, impact defender of the rim. He'd boost a defense that ranked 28th in block rate in 2013-14 and would have the luxury of developing in a niche role behind Millsap and Horford, while playing alongside Antic on the second unit.
As for a splashier move, how about a trade? The Rockets might have to part ways with an allegedly disgruntled Omer Asik and at the same time, they must figure out what to do about Chandler Parsons' team option. If they exercise it, he can become an unrestricted free agent next season, and unless Houston decides he's the third foundation player to go with James Harden and Dwight Howard, there might not be money to keep him. If they don't pick up the option, Parsons becomes a restricted free agent this summer, and he's a guy the market is really going to like.
Daryl Morey can address both issues by allowing Parsons to become an RFA, then ship him with Asik in a sign-and-trade scenario to Atlanta for Millsap and Carroll. Millsap becomes a high-level third wheel for Houston, while Carroll is remarkably similar to Parsons, albeit with a lower ceiling, and better defense. Asik upgrades the Hawks' defense and pushes Horford to power forward, while Parsons is an upgrade over Carroll. An Asik, Teague, Korver, Parsons and Horford lineup offers a similar dynamic to what Gregg Popovich has in San Antonio.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: Despite being a popular destination on NBA road trips, Atlanta remains exactly that: a nice place to visit. The Hawks have traditionally struggled to attract the type of transcendent free agents who can change the fortunes of a franchise. In fact, in the past 25 years the Hawks have successfully signed just three big-name free agents: Dikembe Mutombo in 1996, Joe Johnson in 2005, and Millsap in 2013. And you can make the argument that all three players arrived in Atlanta with smaller reputations than the ones they built there.
Resigning yourself to a strategy of unearthing diamonds in the rough and accumulating assets in the hopes of completing a blockbuster deal someday can place a strain on a front office that can be unfairly judged as incapable of securing a superstar.
Doolittle: Ferry really has the Hawks in a great place. The big hurdle to my proposed makeover is simple: Morey might not want to do it, especially because Parsons is so well embedded in Houston's team culture.
IV. The "Ideal" Roster:
The "Ideal" Roster
Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Omer Asik 29 $8.4m 1.8
PG Jeff Teague 27 $8.0m 4.6
SG Kyle Korver 34 $6.3m 4.4
SF Chandler Parsons 27 $9.0m 5.7
PF Al Horford 30 $12.0m 8.1
bC Pero Antic 33 $1.3m 1.4
bPG Shelvin Mack 25 $3.0m 0.7
bSG Louis Williams 29 $5.5m 3.7
bSF Mike Scott 27 $3.0m 0.9
bPF Lucas Nogueira 21 $1.5m -0.3
RES1 Dennis Schroder 23 $1.7m -0.9
RES2 James Young 20 $1.5m 0.1
Est. Payroll: $62.2 million; Updated Win Range: 41 to 45
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
Roster Reload: Memphis Grizzlies.
The Memphis Grizzlies' 2013-14 season came in three acts.
In Act 1, coach Dave Joeger tried to install a new, up-tempo offense to limited success. In Act 2, Marc Gasol got hurt and the team struggled and eventually went back to grind-it-out basketball. In the final act, the Grizzlies got Gasol back, added Courtney Lee and went on a furious three-month push that took them from the depths of the Western Conference standings to the seventh seed and a matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Years from now, Grizzlies fans will wonder what could have been had Gasol not gotten hurt, or at the very least had Randolph been active for Game 7 and Conley been healthy. Here's a look at what could be next.
2014-15 Status quote baseline: 45.3 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Gasol isn't the best player in the NBA, but he's on the short list of players who are most important for their teams. He's pivotal -- he acts as a conduit on offense and as an anchor on defense. At 29, he's entering the prime of his career and has a style of play that will allow him to keep up this level of productivity for the foreseeable future. Mike Conley is arguably the most underrated point guard in the league but still is improving. Tony Allen is the heart and soul of the team and best embodies the "grit and grind" personality and identity the Grizzlies have adopted. Zach Randolph is gradually declining but still is an extremely tough cover around the basket and a high-level rebounder. Lee and the injured Quincy Pondexter are defensive wings who double as offensive threats, while Nick Calathes steadily improved as a backup point guard all season long.
Blake Griffin, James Johnson
Justin Ford/USA TODAY Sports
James Johnson was a revelation this season, but will he be back in 2014-15?
Doolittle: Randolph is aging, and a statistically washed-up Tayshaun Prince is grinding it to a halt. Prince finished last in the league with a minus-3.9 WARP this season, and at age 34, it's not going to get better. Memphis does have options, but Mike Miller and James Johnson will be free agents, while Pondexter is coming off a major injury. You don't think of the Grizzlies as being old, but they had the fifth-highest minutes-weighted age in the league. It makes you wonder how or if this group can get to a higher tier. On the plus side, Conley (10.0 projected WARP) should remain an All-Star-level point guard, and Gasol will provide more value than his projected 6.1 WARP if he stays healthy for a full season.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: Randolph's decision with his $16.5 million player option will dictate much of what route Memphis will take this offseason. If he opts out, re-signing a more cap-friendly deal (for example, three years for $36 million) will give the Grizzlies the breathing room to make some additions while setting themselves up to be able to afford Gasol's next deal. If he opts in, the cost certainty allows Memphis to explore deals for him, perhaps to Los Angeles in a sign-and-trade for the other Gasol, Pau.
Re-signing impending free agent Miller has to be a priority, as he's the only pure shooter on the roster and, more importantly, one of the few pure shooters on the free-agent market. As Lee and Pondexter continue to grow as players, moving Allen might be an option on the table. Neither are the defender he is, but they both can hit a wide-open jump shot, and the total package might outweigh the one specialty Allen brings. Finally, Prince's $7.7 million expiring deal is a blight on the books, and the Grizzlies should try to dump him to a team with space; if not, a stretch waive should be seriously considered as an option worth pursuing.
Zach Randolph
Nelson Chenault/USA TODAY Sports
Zach Randolph is declining. Is it time to move him?
Doolittle: Conley's production was worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $19 million last season in terms of WARP, making his actual cap number of $8.2 million one of the best values in the league. Memphis has him locked up for two more years and just over $19 million. Meanwhile, Gasol will be working on an expiring deal, and Randolph has his aforementioned player option. Obviously, that decision will dictate what direction the Memphis summer takes. Chances are Randolph will exercise that option, and Memphis will have to again attempt to improve at the margins. By this time next year, things might begin to look drastically different for the Grizzlies. While I wouldn't advocate a team this strong tear down just yet, it is a scenario worth exploring if it appears Gasol and/or Randolph could fetch a major return of young players and future assets.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: Money always is an issue in Memphis, and cap management is always at the forefront of decision-making. The Grizzlies have to put themselves in a position where they'll have enough flexibility to pay Gasol a year from now and surround him with good, complementary talent while avoiding the luxury tax threshold. On the court, spacing is the area of biggest need; one can only imagine how much easier life would be for their front court if defenses were not able to collapse so freely and dare the Griz to defeat them from the perimeter.
That's why retaining Miller is so important, but the cost might be higher than expected because of the dearth of pure shooters on the market this summer (and the success of most of the high-priced shooters signed last year). Finally, Ed Davis showed promise as perhaps the power forward of the future; can he be retained for a reasonable price?
Doolittle: The Grizzlies finished 15th in offensive efficiency, the best they've done during their current run of success. The defense ranked seventh and finished in the top eight for the fourth straight season. Still, you have to feel like they peaked on that end with a second-place rank in 2012-13. There still is a lot more room for improvement on offense. Memphis slid from 29th to 30th in pace and once again ranked dead last in frequency of 3-point shots attempted. The Grizzlies had some deep threats on the roster, in Conley, Miller and Jon Leuer, and will get a boost in that area with Pondexter's return. Given a probable lack of financial flexibility, Johnson could really make the Memphis summer by perfecting a corner 3-point shot. If so, it would be hard to keep him off the court. Of course, the Grizzlies will need to re-sign him first.
IV. The "Ideal" Roster:
Elhassan: I love family reunions, so I decided reuniting the Gasol brothers would be the focus of my Grizzlies roster reload. Assuming Randolph opts-in, sending him to Los Angeles would give the Lakers the type of win-now talent that Kobe Bryant will no doubt demand, while the Grizzlies would be better positioned to take advantage of sibling synergies (not to mention Pau's ability to make plays from both high and low post, just like Marc). A flat, three-year, $39 million deal with partial guarantees on the final two years gives Memphis the cost certainty they need moving forward to account for Marc's free agency.
Meanwhile, a de-escalating three year, $24 million deal starting at $8.6 million for Davis gives the Griz future flexibility. Finally, perhaps a bit optimistically, getting Miller to agree to a deal starting at $3.8 million of the midlevel exception leaves $1.5 million to sign Cartier Martin, another gritty defensive player who can knock down the 3-ball, giving them flexibility to pursue Allen deals.
The "Ideal" Roster
Position Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Marc Gasol 30 $15.8m 6.1
PG Mike Conley 28 $9.3m 10.0
SG Courtney Lee 30 $5.5m 1.2
SF Quincy Pondexter 27 $3.1m -0.1
PF Pau Gasol 35 $13.0m 4.8
bC Kosta Koufos 26 $3.0m 3.6
bPG Nick Calathes 26 $0.8m 0.1
bSG Tony Allen 33 $4.8m 1.7
bSF Mike Miller 35 $3.8m 2.1
bPF Ed Davis 26 $8.6m 2.9
RES1 Cartier Martin 29 $1.5m 0.7
RES2 Jon Leuer 26 $1.0m 0.1
Est. Payroll: $70.2 million; Updated Win Range: 45 to 49
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
In Act 1, coach Dave Joeger tried to install a new, up-tempo offense to limited success. In Act 2, Marc Gasol got hurt and the team struggled and eventually went back to grind-it-out basketball. In the final act, the Grizzlies got Gasol back, added Courtney Lee and went on a furious three-month push that took them from the depths of the Western Conference standings to the seventh seed and a matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Years from now, Grizzlies fans will wonder what could have been had Gasol not gotten hurt, or at the very least had Randolph been active for Game 7 and Conley been healthy. Here's a look at what could be next.
2014-15 Status quote baseline: 45.3 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Gasol isn't the best player in the NBA, but he's on the short list of players who are most important for their teams. He's pivotal -- he acts as a conduit on offense and as an anchor on defense. At 29, he's entering the prime of his career and has a style of play that will allow him to keep up this level of productivity for the foreseeable future. Mike Conley is arguably the most underrated point guard in the league but still is improving. Tony Allen is the heart and soul of the team and best embodies the "grit and grind" personality and identity the Grizzlies have adopted. Zach Randolph is gradually declining but still is an extremely tough cover around the basket and a high-level rebounder. Lee and the injured Quincy Pondexter are defensive wings who double as offensive threats, while Nick Calathes steadily improved as a backup point guard all season long.
Blake Griffin, James Johnson
Justin Ford/USA TODAY Sports
James Johnson was a revelation this season, but will he be back in 2014-15?
Doolittle: Randolph is aging, and a statistically washed-up Tayshaun Prince is grinding it to a halt. Prince finished last in the league with a minus-3.9 WARP this season, and at age 34, it's not going to get better. Memphis does have options, but Mike Miller and James Johnson will be free agents, while Pondexter is coming off a major injury. You don't think of the Grizzlies as being old, but they had the fifth-highest minutes-weighted age in the league. It makes you wonder how or if this group can get to a higher tier. On the plus side, Conley (10.0 projected WARP) should remain an All-Star-level point guard, and Gasol will provide more value than his projected 6.1 WARP if he stays healthy for a full season.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: Randolph's decision with his $16.5 million player option will dictate much of what route Memphis will take this offseason. If he opts out, re-signing a more cap-friendly deal (for example, three years for $36 million) will give the Grizzlies the breathing room to make some additions while setting themselves up to be able to afford Gasol's next deal. If he opts in, the cost certainty allows Memphis to explore deals for him, perhaps to Los Angeles in a sign-and-trade for the other Gasol, Pau.
Re-signing impending free agent Miller has to be a priority, as he's the only pure shooter on the roster and, more importantly, one of the few pure shooters on the free-agent market. As Lee and Pondexter continue to grow as players, moving Allen might be an option on the table. Neither are the defender he is, but they both can hit a wide-open jump shot, and the total package might outweigh the one specialty Allen brings. Finally, Prince's $7.7 million expiring deal is a blight on the books, and the Grizzlies should try to dump him to a team with space; if not, a stretch waive should be seriously considered as an option worth pursuing.
Zach Randolph
Nelson Chenault/USA TODAY Sports
Zach Randolph is declining. Is it time to move him?
Doolittle: Conley's production was worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $19 million last season in terms of WARP, making his actual cap number of $8.2 million one of the best values in the league. Memphis has him locked up for two more years and just over $19 million. Meanwhile, Gasol will be working on an expiring deal, and Randolph has his aforementioned player option. Obviously, that decision will dictate what direction the Memphis summer takes. Chances are Randolph will exercise that option, and Memphis will have to again attempt to improve at the margins. By this time next year, things might begin to look drastically different for the Grizzlies. While I wouldn't advocate a team this strong tear down just yet, it is a scenario worth exploring if it appears Gasol and/or Randolph could fetch a major return of young players and future assets.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: Money always is an issue in Memphis, and cap management is always at the forefront of decision-making. The Grizzlies have to put themselves in a position where they'll have enough flexibility to pay Gasol a year from now and surround him with good, complementary talent while avoiding the luxury tax threshold. On the court, spacing is the area of biggest need; one can only imagine how much easier life would be for their front court if defenses were not able to collapse so freely and dare the Griz to defeat them from the perimeter.
That's why retaining Miller is so important, but the cost might be higher than expected because of the dearth of pure shooters on the market this summer (and the success of most of the high-priced shooters signed last year). Finally, Ed Davis showed promise as perhaps the power forward of the future; can he be retained for a reasonable price?
Doolittle: The Grizzlies finished 15th in offensive efficiency, the best they've done during their current run of success. The defense ranked seventh and finished in the top eight for the fourth straight season. Still, you have to feel like they peaked on that end with a second-place rank in 2012-13. There still is a lot more room for improvement on offense. Memphis slid from 29th to 30th in pace and once again ranked dead last in frequency of 3-point shots attempted. The Grizzlies had some deep threats on the roster, in Conley, Miller and Jon Leuer, and will get a boost in that area with Pondexter's return. Given a probable lack of financial flexibility, Johnson could really make the Memphis summer by perfecting a corner 3-point shot. If so, it would be hard to keep him off the court. Of course, the Grizzlies will need to re-sign him first.
IV. The "Ideal" Roster:
Elhassan: I love family reunions, so I decided reuniting the Gasol brothers would be the focus of my Grizzlies roster reload. Assuming Randolph opts-in, sending him to Los Angeles would give the Lakers the type of win-now talent that Kobe Bryant will no doubt demand, while the Grizzlies would be better positioned to take advantage of sibling synergies (not to mention Pau's ability to make plays from both high and low post, just like Marc). A flat, three-year, $39 million deal with partial guarantees on the final two years gives Memphis the cost certainty they need moving forward to account for Marc's free agency.
Meanwhile, a de-escalating three year, $24 million deal starting at $8.6 million for Davis gives the Griz future flexibility. Finally, perhaps a bit optimistically, getting Miller to agree to a deal starting at $3.8 million of the midlevel exception leaves $1.5 million to sign Cartier Martin, another gritty defensive player who can knock down the 3-ball, giving them flexibility to pursue Allen deals.
The "Ideal" Roster
Position Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Marc Gasol 30 $15.8m 6.1
PG Mike Conley 28 $9.3m 10.0
SG Courtney Lee 30 $5.5m 1.2
SF Quincy Pondexter 27 $3.1m -0.1
PF Pau Gasol 35 $13.0m 4.8
bC Kosta Koufos 26 $3.0m 3.6
bPG Nick Calathes 26 $0.8m 0.1
bSG Tony Allen 33 $4.8m 1.7
bSF Mike Miller 35 $3.8m 2.1
bPF Ed Davis 26 $8.6m 2.9
RES1 Cartier Martin 29 $1.5m 0.7
RES2 Jon Leuer 26 $1.0m 0.1
Est. Payroll: $70.2 million; Updated Win Range: 45 to 49
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
Roster Reload: Golden St. Warriors.
A season of tumult finally came crashing down, and an offseason of questions commences. After a massive retooling in 2013 following an exciting playoff run, expectations in the Bay Area were for the Warriors to compete for home-court advantage in an extremely tough Western Conference and perhaps be the dark-horse pick to make it to the Finals. Instead, a sixth-seed placing in the playoff bracket can be construed as a disappointment despite the fact it took 51 wins to get there (Golden State's first 50-win season in 20 years).
Criticisms of coach Mark Jackson's offense being unimaginative continued, and it often felt like he was driving a Ferrari with the hand break on; the only time it would release was during the playoffs when forced to go smaller lineups due to injuries. Additionally, the dismissal of two assistant coaches a few weeks before the playoffs only served to bring more scrutiny and turmoil around the organization. Where do they head from here?
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 49.2 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Before the season started, I said that the Warriors' season hinged on the health of two players: Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut, the two most responsible for the team's excellence on the offensive and defensive end of the court, respectively. It probably isn't far-fetched to speculate that the Warriors would have stood a great chance at upsetting an emotionally drained Los Angeles Clippers club had Bogut been healthy for the playoffs. Still, he's under contract for the next three years at a reasonable AAV of $12 million per year, a discount that was realized because of his propensity to be injured.
Andrew Bogut
AP Photo/Steve ****s
When Bogut was healthy, he bolstered the Warriors defense and gave them much-needed size.
Curry continued his ascent to the upper echelon of the league's elite and solidifying his place as arguably the best shooter off the dribble in the history of the game. Klay Thompson also made huge strides toward becoming a more complete player, creating more off the dribble and refining his post game, while doubling as one of Golden State's most consistent defenders.
Meanwhile, David Lee seems to have hit a plateau in his development and likely will start a slow decline over the next two years of his deal. Harrison Barnes hit a sophomore slump that submarined his value from promising up-and-coming player to draft bust who has been outplayed by 2012 draft counterpart (and second-round pick) Draymond Green.
Doolittle: The Warriors ranked 12th in minutes-weighted age this season and will likely be in the middle of the pack in that area in 2014-15. That's a pretty good place to be for a wanna-be-contender, as a team age of 27 or 28 means that the bulk of your minutes are going to players in their primes. The average is driven upwards by Bogut, Lee and Andre Iguodala, while Green, Klay Thompson and Barnes all have room for growth.
As for Curry, he'll be 27 next season and should remain an elite-level core player for the foreseeable future as long as he stays healthy. Thompson is forecast for 3.4 WARP, and while that doesn't give him enough credit for his on-ball defense, it's worth noting that his defensive RPM was basically neutral. He's a great shooter, and his 41.7 success rate backs that up, but Thompson needs to have a greater overall tangible impact to become a true foundation piece.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: The Warriors are in an interesting position, being one of the few teams that can offer a combination of quality, win-now talent and youth with upside in trade. No trade target fits Golden State more ideally than Kevin Love, with his rebounding, passing and, of course, shooting. The Warriors would greatly benefit from his ability to space the floor, giving them one more drop-dead shooter on a team that lacks shooting outside of its starting backcourt. A packaged centered around Lee and Barnes might move the needle, given Lee's status as a stat-stuffer and multiple All-Star and Barnes' reputation as an underutilized or misused lottery talent.
Kevin Love
David Sherman/NBAE/Getty Images
Love would put the Warriors over the top and add the rebounding they need.
Thompson is eligible for his rookie extension, and given his progression and excellent fit alongside Curry, it seems like a foregone conclusion he'll be locked into a long-term deal soon. Beyond that, the core is locked up: Bogut, Iguodala, Curry and Green are all locked in for the foreseeable future and form the nucleus of a win-now outfit. Steve Blake was a nice fit as backup point guard and would be a good candidate to return, as was Jermaine O'Neal at backup center, particularly after Bogut went down. Perhaps the biggest change will be the sweeping of a coaching staff that has had more than its fair share of controversy. From the dismissals of Brian Scalabrine and Darren Erman, to Jackson's questionable play calling that overemphasizes isolation plays and post-ups, to his almost evangelical religious beliefs that sometimes bleed over to the business side of the game, Jackson has rubbed many the wrong way. This first-round ouster with a roster that, on paper at least, should have achieved more during the regular season might give Golden State's management the out they needed.
Doolittle: Part of Jackson's problem might have been unrealistic expectations. While the Warriors drew some support before the season as a favorite in the West, the consensus was they'd do what they did -- finish sixth. Clearly there is discord, distrust and other dis-issues there, so perhaps a change is in order. Still, I wouldn't go so far as to call for Jackson's job. That said, it's not uncommon for a defensive-minded coach to be tuned out after a couple of seasons. The Warriors could use a better X's-and-O's coach for the offense, because there is no way a team that shoots so well should have finished 12th in offensive efficiency. The Knicks had a more efficient offense than Golden State. If Jackson can hire an offensive assistant and trust him to do his job, that might do the trick. I hear Mike D'Antoni is available.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: Trading Lee is easier said than done. He's got a lot of good will built in the community and with ownership, as he was the team's first star and the beginning of the rebuilding process. Also, his contract can be cumbersome, with another $30.5 million over the next two years, so there's a good chance that trading him will take more than just Barnes as a sweetener.
Another "easier said than done" task is firing Jackson: For all the friction he caused between himself and management, he has the full and undying support of most of his locker room, including the most important person: Curry. Whoever has to follow in Jackson's footsteps as head coach will have to win over a locker room that will likely be distraught over the firing of "their guy" and be skeptical of the successor.
Doolittle: Jackson's status has to be solved, and quickly, so the team can plan accordingly. Personnel-wise, the Warriors are in pretty good shape if Barnes can find a productive niche. Thompson will be up for an extension soon, so in a couple of years the cap is going to look messy with four players earning eight figures -- possibly five if Thompson blows up. Lee is the most replaceable of the starters, but as Elhassan says, his contract is going to be the hardest one to move. His winning percentage fell from .540 to .513 this season even though his usage and shooting indicators remained stable. A decline in floor play by a 31-year-old is troubling. Since the Warriors won't have the capability of really investing in their bench, it makes it that much more imperative that Barnes find his way.
IV. The "Ideal" Roster
Elhassan: Let's swing for the fences and assume that a Kevin Love deal can be made! The Warriors would likely have to mortgage several future first-rounders in the process, as well as assume the final year of Alexey Shved, who has fallen out of favor in Minnesota due to his inability to consistently knock down the perimeter jumper, among other ailments. Love allows the team to play the spread style Curry so desperately needs to truly maximize his potential, without sacrificing the rebounding, passing and (to some extent) post play Lee brought to the table. Steve Blake returns for the biannual exception, with a player option on his second year.
The "Ideal" Roster?
Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Andrew Bogut 30 $13.0m 3.1
PG Stephen Curry 27 $10.6m 15.8
SG Klay Thompson 25 $3.1m 3.4
SF Andre Iguodala 31 $12.3m 4.5
PF Kevin Love 27 $15.7m 12.8
bC Festus Ezeli 26 $1.1m 2.5
bPG Steve Blake 35 $2.1m 0.7
bSG Alexey Shved 26 $3.3m 2.8
bSF Draymond Green 25 $0.9m 1.7
bPF Marreese Speights 28 $3.7m 0.2
RES1 Nemanja Nedovic 24 $1.1m -1.0
RES2 Ognjen Kuzmic 25 $0.8m -0.7
Est. Payroll: $67.7 million; Updated Win Range: 59 to 63
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
Criticisms of coach Mark Jackson's offense being unimaginative continued, and it often felt like he was driving a Ferrari with the hand break on; the only time it would release was during the playoffs when forced to go smaller lineups due to injuries. Additionally, the dismissal of two assistant coaches a few weeks before the playoffs only served to bring more scrutiny and turmoil around the organization. Where do they head from here?
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 49.2 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Before the season started, I said that the Warriors' season hinged on the health of two players: Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut, the two most responsible for the team's excellence on the offensive and defensive end of the court, respectively. It probably isn't far-fetched to speculate that the Warriors would have stood a great chance at upsetting an emotionally drained Los Angeles Clippers club had Bogut been healthy for the playoffs. Still, he's under contract for the next three years at a reasonable AAV of $12 million per year, a discount that was realized because of his propensity to be injured.
Andrew Bogut
AP Photo/Steve ****s
When Bogut was healthy, he bolstered the Warriors defense and gave them much-needed size.
Curry continued his ascent to the upper echelon of the league's elite and solidifying his place as arguably the best shooter off the dribble in the history of the game. Klay Thompson also made huge strides toward becoming a more complete player, creating more off the dribble and refining his post game, while doubling as one of Golden State's most consistent defenders.
Meanwhile, David Lee seems to have hit a plateau in his development and likely will start a slow decline over the next two years of his deal. Harrison Barnes hit a sophomore slump that submarined his value from promising up-and-coming player to draft bust who has been outplayed by 2012 draft counterpart (and second-round pick) Draymond Green.
Doolittle: The Warriors ranked 12th in minutes-weighted age this season and will likely be in the middle of the pack in that area in 2014-15. That's a pretty good place to be for a wanna-be-contender, as a team age of 27 or 28 means that the bulk of your minutes are going to players in their primes. The average is driven upwards by Bogut, Lee and Andre Iguodala, while Green, Klay Thompson and Barnes all have room for growth.
As for Curry, he'll be 27 next season and should remain an elite-level core player for the foreseeable future as long as he stays healthy. Thompson is forecast for 3.4 WARP, and while that doesn't give him enough credit for his on-ball defense, it's worth noting that his defensive RPM was basically neutral. He's a great shooter, and his 41.7 success rate backs that up, but Thompson needs to have a greater overall tangible impact to become a true foundation piece.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: The Warriors are in an interesting position, being one of the few teams that can offer a combination of quality, win-now talent and youth with upside in trade. No trade target fits Golden State more ideally than Kevin Love, with his rebounding, passing and, of course, shooting. The Warriors would greatly benefit from his ability to space the floor, giving them one more drop-dead shooter on a team that lacks shooting outside of its starting backcourt. A packaged centered around Lee and Barnes might move the needle, given Lee's status as a stat-stuffer and multiple All-Star and Barnes' reputation as an underutilized or misused lottery talent.
Kevin Love
David Sherman/NBAE/Getty Images
Love would put the Warriors over the top and add the rebounding they need.
Thompson is eligible for his rookie extension, and given his progression and excellent fit alongside Curry, it seems like a foregone conclusion he'll be locked into a long-term deal soon. Beyond that, the core is locked up: Bogut, Iguodala, Curry and Green are all locked in for the foreseeable future and form the nucleus of a win-now outfit. Steve Blake was a nice fit as backup point guard and would be a good candidate to return, as was Jermaine O'Neal at backup center, particularly after Bogut went down. Perhaps the biggest change will be the sweeping of a coaching staff that has had more than its fair share of controversy. From the dismissals of Brian Scalabrine and Darren Erman, to Jackson's questionable play calling that overemphasizes isolation plays and post-ups, to his almost evangelical religious beliefs that sometimes bleed over to the business side of the game, Jackson has rubbed many the wrong way. This first-round ouster with a roster that, on paper at least, should have achieved more during the regular season might give Golden State's management the out they needed.
Doolittle: Part of Jackson's problem might have been unrealistic expectations. While the Warriors drew some support before the season as a favorite in the West, the consensus was they'd do what they did -- finish sixth. Clearly there is discord, distrust and other dis-issues there, so perhaps a change is in order. Still, I wouldn't go so far as to call for Jackson's job. That said, it's not uncommon for a defensive-minded coach to be tuned out after a couple of seasons. The Warriors could use a better X's-and-O's coach for the offense, because there is no way a team that shoots so well should have finished 12th in offensive efficiency. The Knicks had a more efficient offense than Golden State. If Jackson can hire an offensive assistant and trust him to do his job, that might do the trick. I hear Mike D'Antoni is available.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: Trading Lee is easier said than done. He's got a lot of good will built in the community and with ownership, as he was the team's first star and the beginning of the rebuilding process. Also, his contract can be cumbersome, with another $30.5 million over the next two years, so there's a good chance that trading him will take more than just Barnes as a sweetener.
Another "easier said than done" task is firing Jackson: For all the friction he caused between himself and management, he has the full and undying support of most of his locker room, including the most important person: Curry. Whoever has to follow in Jackson's footsteps as head coach will have to win over a locker room that will likely be distraught over the firing of "their guy" and be skeptical of the successor.
Doolittle: Jackson's status has to be solved, and quickly, so the team can plan accordingly. Personnel-wise, the Warriors are in pretty good shape if Barnes can find a productive niche. Thompson will be up for an extension soon, so in a couple of years the cap is going to look messy with four players earning eight figures -- possibly five if Thompson blows up. Lee is the most replaceable of the starters, but as Elhassan says, his contract is going to be the hardest one to move. His winning percentage fell from .540 to .513 this season even though his usage and shooting indicators remained stable. A decline in floor play by a 31-year-old is troubling. Since the Warriors won't have the capability of really investing in their bench, it makes it that much more imperative that Barnes find his way.
IV. The "Ideal" Roster
Elhassan: Let's swing for the fences and assume that a Kevin Love deal can be made! The Warriors would likely have to mortgage several future first-rounders in the process, as well as assume the final year of Alexey Shved, who has fallen out of favor in Minnesota due to his inability to consistently knock down the perimeter jumper, among other ailments. Love allows the team to play the spread style Curry so desperately needs to truly maximize his potential, without sacrificing the rebounding, passing and (to some extent) post play Lee brought to the table. Steve Blake returns for the biannual exception, with a player option on his second year.
The "Ideal" Roster?
Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Andrew Bogut 30 $13.0m 3.1
PG Stephen Curry 27 $10.6m 15.8
SG Klay Thompson 25 $3.1m 3.4
SF Andre Iguodala 31 $12.3m 4.5
PF Kevin Love 27 $15.7m 12.8
bC Festus Ezeli 26 $1.1m 2.5
bPG Steve Blake 35 $2.1m 0.7
bSG Alexey Shved 26 $3.3m 2.8
bSF Draymond Green 25 $0.9m 1.7
bPF Marreese Speights 28 $3.7m 0.2
RES1 Nemanja Nedovic 24 $1.1m -1.0
RES2 Ognjen Kuzmic 25 $0.8m -0.7
Est. Payroll: $67.7 million; Updated Win Range: 59 to 63
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
Roster Reload: Toronto Raptors.
For Toronto, the season began with low expectations.
Everyone was still scratching their heads at the DeMar DeRozan-Rudy Gay wing combination, and with perceived malcontent Kyle Lowry entering a contract year, how would promising center Jonas Valanciunas ever see the ball? The ESPN Summer Forecast pegged the Raptors for 33 wins and a 10th-place finish in the East. New general manager Masai Ujiri was taking stock of all of this, and it figured he'd eventually reset the roster around Valanciunas. Ujiri had already begun that process when he sent former No. 1 overall pick Andrea Bargnani to New York in July for a first-round pick and a bundle of trade filler. Predictably, Toronto floundered to a 6-12 start.
A funny thing happened on the way to the lottery, however. Three days after the Raptors' season reached its nadir, Gay was shipped to Sacramento for what seemed to be more stopgap trade filler. Instead, Chuck Hayes, Patrick Patterson, John Salmons and Greivis Vasquez stepped into meaningful roles in Dwane Casey's rotation, Terrence Ross moved into the starting lineup and Toronto went 42-22 to finish the season. What seemed like a transitional season saw Casey establish a core of Valanciunas, Lowry and DeRozan, and finish in the top 10 in efficiency on both ends of the floor. The grueling, seven-game loss to the Nets in the first round was a disappointment, but all in all, it was perhaps the best season in Raptors history. Now, with Lowry and other key parts hitting free agency, what does Ujiri do for an encore?
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 39.6 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: The Raptors' exceeding of expectations began when they jettisoned Gay, freeing up possessions for the more efficient Lowry and DeRozan. By allowing Lowry to dominate the ball, the Raptors' offense was more balanced, as he was able to create for himself and others. Meanwhile, DeRozan's strongest suit (drawing fouls) helped generate easy points from the stripe for himself and for his teammates (by virtue of getting into the bonus quicker). It's hard to justify the $9.5 million per year contract extension he received in 2012, but he's much closer to earning that salary than he was with Gay on the team. Valanciunas similarly benefited from Gay's departure, becoming a more engaged roll man in pick and rolls, while Amir Johnson continues to be one of the best values in basketball and the new-age "No Stats All-Star." Rounding out the core, Ross showed signs of life as an athletic wing defender who can space the floor.
DeMar DeRozan
AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Nathan Denette
DeMar DeRozan came into his own in 2013-14, and is now almost worth the $9.5 million of average annual value of his contract.
Doolittle: Toronto had the ninth-best scoring margin in the league, and was one of just four teams in the East to have a winning record against the West. There was little in their record that screamed "fluke," other than perhaps the track record of some of the players. Lowry had his best season statistically, with a 14.3 WARP -- 6.1 more than he's posted in any of his first seven seasons. Just as important, Lowry displayed a new-found affability and maturity that shed a new light on his on-court toughness. Now, he's a leader, not a guy with a chip on his shoulder. Was it real growth, or the expiring contract? That's up to Ujiri to decide, but players as productive as Lowry are hard to come by. For the first time, DeRozan finished above replacement level, jumping all the way to 5.4 WARP, and his .532 true shooting percentage suggests there is plenty of room for further enhancements. The track records of their stars is what keeps Toronto's baseline in middling territory, but there are lots of reasons to be optimistic.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: John Salmons and Tyler Hansbrough both have partial guarantees that pay them $1 million apiece, so it would be prudent to release both players to free up some flexibility, unless they can find a draft day trade for someone trying to dump salary (like a trade for Ersan Ilyasova). Patterson and Vasquez are restricted free agents, and both were valuable bench contributors; depending on what happens with Lowry's free agency, there might be opportunities to sign and trade away either of those players. Toronto also has their own first-round pick, as well as two second-rounders (from Sacramento and Oklahoma City). Nik Stauskas from Michigan is a nice combo guard who might be able to handle backup point guard duties in addition to being a terrific shooter, while the second-rounders might be good draft-and-stash candidates.
Nik Stauskas
Thomas J. Russo/USA TODAY Sports
Nik Stauskas would add a scoring touch, as well as the ability to play the point in a pinch.
Doolittle: Since Toronto was so well balanced on both ends of the floor, it's not easy to pinpoint specific areas for improvement. They could stand to improve a 47.5 percentage on 2-pointers, which ranked 23rd. Further improvement by Valanciunas will help that, as could better shot selection by DeRozan. The contract status of Lowry is the major concern, because there is no way the Raptors could attract a comparable player to replace his value. It's hard to know how the market views Lowry, but consider this: He just posted the highest WARP of any player that we know is headed for unrestricted free agency, pending some high-profile stars who can opt out.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: The most pressing concern for Toronto is Lowry's free-agent status. While Vasquez played well as a backup and has started in this league, he's not capable of replacing Lowry full-time. Furthermore, the point guard crop is extremely thin (both in free agency and in the draft), so almost any viable option would constitute a step back. At the same time, the Raptors are at risk of falling into the same pitfall they did the previous time they experienced a taste of playoff success: Doling out big money deals to good but not exceptional talents, locking themselves into a team with a low ceiling.
In 2001, they spent $140 million in contracts on Antonio Davis, Jerome Williams and Alvin Williams, but the team never improved, and now 13 years later, big-money deals to Lowry, Patterson and Vasquez (coupled with DeRozan's above-market-value deal) might do the same. If they don't pay them, however, they might end up starting over from scratch again, halting the momentum they built this season.
Doolittle: If Toronto retains Lowry and builds upon a foundation of him, Valanciunas and DeRozan, do they run the risk of getting stuck on the second tier? Considering where the Raptors were this time last year, that conundrum strikes me as a first-world issue. The best approach for Ujiri right now is status quo. This roster had exceptional chemistry after the Gay trade, and there is plenty of room for growth from a number of the younger Raptors. The summer market is the real concern here: Lowry could get an unexpectedly large offer, while Vasquez and Patterson are sure to draw interest as well. The bulk of Ujiri's roster hasn't even spent a full season together, but keeping it intact for 2014-15 won't be easy.
IV. The "ideal" roster:
Doolittle: I'm banking here that Lowry doesn't get blown away by an offer on the market. Amin had Lowry at an AAV of $8.5 million in February, and here I'm giving him a hometown bonus and bringing him in line with what DeRozan earns. I estimated the dollars for Vasquez and Patterson based on what similar restricted free agents signed for last summer.
There were two shake-ups of the status quo. I'm paying Tyler Hansbrough and John Salmons the $1 million each they have guaranteed, and bidding them adieu. Toronto has too many options up front to keep Hansbrough, while Salmons' fully guaranteed salary would come to $7 million. Too rich for my blood. I'm using my room exception to land Shaun Livingston, who gives me size on the perimeter, the ability to get points in the post and a stylistic complement to Ross. With the 20th pick in June, which I haven't listed here, I'm going for the player with the highest ceiling. The Raptors are in position to swing for the fences.
The "Ideal" Roster
Position Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Jonas Valanciunas 23 $3.7m 2.5
PG Kyle Lowry 29 $9.5m 11.9
SG DeMar DeRozan 26 $9.5m 1.1
SF Terrence Ross 24 $2.8m 2.0
PF Amir Johnson 28 $7.0m 3.0
bC Chuck Hayes 32 $6.0m -0.7
bPG Greivis Vasquez 28 $4.5m 2.8
bSG Shaun Livingston 30 $2.5m -0.3
bSF Landry Fields 27 $6.3m -0.6
bPF Patrick Patterson 26 $3.5m 2.4
RES1 Steve Novak 32 $3.5m 1.5
RES2 Dwight Buycks 26 $0.8m -0.1
Est. Payroll: $65.4 million; Updated Win Range: 40 to 44
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold = new player.
Everyone was still scratching their heads at the DeMar DeRozan-Rudy Gay wing combination, and with perceived malcontent Kyle Lowry entering a contract year, how would promising center Jonas Valanciunas ever see the ball? The ESPN Summer Forecast pegged the Raptors for 33 wins and a 10th-place finish in the East. New general manager Masai Ujiri was taking stock of all of this, and it figured he'd eventually reset the roster around Valanciunas. Ujiri had already begun that process when he sent former No. 1 overall pick Andrea Bargnani to New York in July for a first-round pick and a bundle of trade filler. Predictably, Toronto floundered to a 6-12 start.
A funny thing happened on the way to the lottery, however. Three days after the Raptors' season reached its nadir, Gay was shipped to Sacramento for what seemed to be more stopgap trade filler. Instead, Chuck Hayes, Patrick Patterson, John Salmons and Greivis Vasquez stepped into meaningful roles in Dwane Casey's rotation, Terrence Ross moved into the starting lineup and Toronto went 42-22 to finish the season. What seemed like a transitional season saw Casey establish a core of Valanciunas, Lowry and DeRozan, and finish in the top 10 in efficiency on both ends of the floor. The grueling, seven-game loss to the Nets in the first round was a disappointment, but all in all, it was perhaps the best season in Raptors history. Now, with Lowry and other key parts hitting free agency, what does Ujiri do for an encore?
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 39.6 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: The Raptors' exceeding of expectations began when they jettisoned Gay, freeing up possessions for the more efficient Lowry and DeRozan. By allowing Lowry to dominate the ball, the Raptors' offense was more balanced, as he was able to create for himself and others. Meanwhile, DeRozan's strongest suit (drawing fouls) helped generate easy points from the stripe for himself and for his teammates (by virtue of getting into the bonus quicker). It's hard to justify the $9.5 million per year contract extension he received in 2012, but he's much closer to earning that salary than he was with Gay on the team. Valanciunas similarly benefited from Gay's departure, becoming a more engaged roll man in pick and rolls, while Amir Johnson continues to be one of the best values in basketball and the new-age "No Stats All-Star." Rounding out the core, Ross showed signs of life as an athletic wing defender who can space the floor.
DeMar DeRozan
AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Nathan Denette
DeMar DeRozan came into his own in 2013-14, and is now almost worth the $9.5 million of average annual value of his contract.
Doolittle: Toronto had the ninth-best scoring margin in the league, and was one of just four teams in the East to have a winning record against the West. There was little in their record that screamed "fluke," other than perhaps the track record of some of the players. Lowry had his best season statistically, with a 14.3 WARP -- 6.1 more than he's posted in any of his first seven seasons. Just as important, Lowry displayed a new-found affability and maturity that shed a new light on his on-court toughness. Now, he's a leader, not a guy with a chip on his shoulder. Was it real growth, or the expiring contract? That's up to Ujiri to decide, but players as productive as Lowry are hard to come by. For the first time, DeRozan finished above replacement level, jumping all the way to 5.4 WARP, and his .532 true shooting percentage suggests there is plenty of room for further enhancements. The track records of their stars is what keeps Toronto's baseline in middling territory, but there are lots of reasons to be optimistic.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: John Salmons and Tyler Hansbrough both have partial guarantees that pay them $1 million apiece, so it would be prudent to release both players to free up some flexibility, unless they can find a draft day trade for someone trying to dump salary (like a trade for Ersan Ilyasova). Patterson and Vasquez are restricted free agents, and both were valuable bench contributors; depending on what happens with Lowry's free agency, there might be opportunities to sign and trade away either of those players. Toronto also has their own first-round pick, as well as two second-rounders (from Sacramento and Oklahoma City). Nik Stauskas from Michigan is a nice combo guard who might be able to handle backup point guard duties in addition to being a terrific shooter, while the second-rounders might be good draft-and-stash candidates.
Nik Stauskas
Thomas J. Russo/USA TODAY Sports
Nik Stauskas would add a scoring touch, as well as the ability to play the point in a pinch.
Doolittle: Since Toronto was so well balanced on both ends of the floor, it's not easy to pinpoint specific areas for improvement. They could stand to improve a 47.5 percentage on 2-pointers, which ranked 23rd. Further improvement by Valanciunas will help that, as could better shot selection by DeRozan. The contract status of Lowry is the major concern, because there is no way the Raptors could attract a comparable player to replace his value. It's hard to know how the market views Lowry, but consider this: He just posted the highest WARP of any player that we know is headed for unrestricted free agency, pending some high-profile stars who can opt out.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: The most pressing concern for Toronto is Lowry's free-agent status. While Vasquez played well as a backup and has started in this league, he's not capable of replacing Lowry full-time. Furthermore, the point guard crop is extremely thin (both in free agency and in the draft), so almost any viable option would constitute a step back. At the same time, the Raptors are at risk of falling into the same pitfall they did the previous time they experienced a taste of playoff success: Doling out big money deals to good but not exceptional talents, locking themselves into a team with a low ceiling.
In 2001, they spent $140 million in contracts on Antonio Davis, Jerome Williams and Alvin Williams, but the team never improved, and now 13 years later, big-money deals to Lowry, Patterson and Vasquez (coupled with DeRozan's above-market-value deal) might do the same. If they don't pay them, however, they might end up starting over from scratch again, halting the momentum they built this season.
Doolittle: If Toronto retains Lowry and builds upon a foundation of him, Valanciunas and DeRozan, do they run the risk of getting stuck on the second tier? Considering where the Raptors were this time last year, that conundrum strikes me as a first-world issue. The best approach for Ujiri right now is status quo. This roster had exceptional chemistry after the Gay trade, and there is plenty of room for growth from a number of the younger Raptors. The summer market is the real concern here: Lowry could get an unexpectedly large offer, while Vasquez and Patterson are sure to draw interest as well. The bulk of Ujiri's roster hasn't even spent a full season together, but keeping it intact for 2014-15 won't be easy.
IV. The "ideal" roster:
Doolittle: I'm banking here that Lowry doesn't get blown away by an offer on the market. Amin had Lowry at an AAV of $8.5 million in February, and here I'm giving him a hometown bonus and bringing him in line with what DeRozan earns. I estimated the dollars for Vasquez and Patterson based on what similar restricted free agents signed for last summer.
There were two shake-ups of the status quo. I'm paying Tyler Hansbrough and John Salmons the $1 million each they have guaranteed, and bidding them adieu. Toronto has too many options up front to keep Hansbrough, while Salmons' fully guaranteed salary would come to $7 million. Too rich for my blood. I'm using my room exception to land Shaun Livingston, who gives me size on the perimeter, the ability to get points in the post and a stylistic complement to Ross. With the 20th pick in June, which I haven't listed here, I'm going for the player with the highest ceiling. The Raptors are in position to swing for the fences.
The "Ideal" Roster
Position Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Jonas Valanciunas 23 $3.7m 2.5
PG Kyle Lowry 29 $9.5m 11.9
SG DeMar DeRozan 26 $9.5m 1.1
SF Terrence Ross 24 $2.8m 2.0
PF Amir Johnson 28 $7.0m 3.0
bC Chuck Hayes 32 $6.0m -0.7
bPG Greivis Vasquez 28 $4.5m 2.8
bSG Shaun Livingston 30 $2.5m -0.3
bSF Landry Fields 27 $6.3m -0.6
bPF Patrick Patterson 26 $3.5m 2.4
RES1 Steve Novak 32 $3.5m 1.5
RES2 Dwight Buycks 26 $0.8m -0.1
Est. Payroll: $65.4 million; Updated Win Range: 40 to 44
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold = new player.
Roster Reload: Trail Blazers.
Portland's 2014 playoff foray resembled the Cinderella run of a mid-major college in March: they pulled off an exciting first-round victory only to be summarily banished before a live audience against a far superior opponent. There should be no cause for shame among the Blazers' faithful. On the contrary, Portland's future looks rosier than ever (no pun intended).
General manager Neil Olshey did an excellent job of plugging the biggest holes with talent that complemented the existing roster perfectly, but his job is far from done, and the Blazers must find a way to keep adding talent and keep improving on the strong campaign put together in 2013-14.
Here's a look at some of the ways they might do that.
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 48.3 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: The continued development and progression of Damian Lillard was nothing short of remarkable, as he made his first All-Star appearance in just his second season. Lillard's poise during the first playoff series of his career was noteworthy, although his inexperience became more evident in the second round against San Antonio, a team built to exploit any weakness. His ability to navigate off the dribble needs to improve, as does his effort on the defensive end, but overall Lillard was fantastic this year. LaMarcus Aldridge raised his level of play as the offensive workhorse that carried Portland through the season, a role that was no doubt made easier by the presence of Robin Lopez, who carried out much of the big-man dirty work and served as the defensive anchor the Blazers' starting lineup needed. On the wings, Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews were versatile defensively and excellent spacers. Overall, Portland's starting lineup was one of the most complete and efficient in the NBA.
[+] EnlargeKirk Hinrich
Mike DiNovo/USA TODAY Sports
Would Kirk Hinrich look good in a Portland jersey?
Doolittle: Clearly, the Trail Blazers are moving in the right direction. They leaped from 33 to 54 wins, improved 12 places to fifth in offensive efficiency and jumped 10 places to 16th on the defensive end. And they did so with the same core players, supplemented by experience and a couple of additions among the role players. The concern, if you want to call it that, about Lillard entering the season was that as a four-year college player, he might have entered the NBA near his ceiling. Well, he improved his winning percentage from .505 to .566, and still has plenty of room for improvement on the defensive end. Aldridge is smack in his prime, but will be near 30 by the end of next season, the last of his current contract. His impact on the Blazers is considerable despite a WARP (7.1) that ranked just 34th in the league, largely a function of a true shooting percentage that has tumbled from .560 to .507 over the last two years. Nevertheless, Aldridge's RPM of plus-5.05 ranked 10th in the league, and for most of the playoffs he certainly looked the part of a franchise player. The average age of the Portland starters next season will be 28, a fine age for a title contender.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: The Blazers' bench desperately needs help, although it's not as bad as it was a year ago. Mo Williams was a solid pickup, Thomas Robinson showed flashes and Dorell Wright had some memorable moments in the playoffs. Still, there's a major need for more shooting, more defense and a bona fide backup center for Lopez. Some of those concerns will be addressed by C.J. McCollum and Will Barton, but Joel Freeland looked outmatched most times and Meyers Leonard, for the time being, looks incapable of figuring out who he is and what he needs to be in this league. Some backup centers on the unrestricted market include Cole Aldrich and Aaron Gray, as solid "beat 'em up" players; a restricted free agent who could be a nice fit is Ekpe Udoh, as a long, defensive stalwart.
[+] EnlargeLaMarcus Aldridge
Scott Halleran/Getty Images
Will LaMarcus Aldridge be part of Portland's core going forward?
Doolittle: Barring a trade, there likely isn't going to be a whole lot of movement on the roster. Williams has a player option, and Portland does not have any picks in the upcoming draft. However, assuming Williams opts in, the Blazers will be sitting at around $65 million in payroll, so they're in a great spot for short-term upgrades. If Williams leaves, they will still have the full midlevel exception to replace him, and/or the biannual exception. Using either would hard-cap Portland for next season, but with so much room under the projected tax apron, that shouldn't be a problem.
If Williams stays -- the best scenario -- the Blazers can use the MLE to address the 16th-ranked defense. Portland actually defended shots well, placing seventh in effective field goal percentage and allowing the lowest frequency of 3s attempted. But the conservative approach that led to the lowest forced turnover rate in the league is an area where a dynamic defender would come in handy. Thabo Sefolosha and Kirk Hinrich are possibilities among perimeter players, while Andris Biedrins, Udoh or the possibly-available Anderson Varejao could be fits. Another name if money gets tight in Golden State: Draymond Green.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: If Williams chooses to decline his player option and test free agency, Portland will be faced with either having to re-sign him and still have to go shopping for other bench needs, or letting him walk and seeking to replace him in the trade/free agency market (they have no draft picks this year). Depending on McCollum's development, there might be an opportunity to move him into the primary guard-off-the-bench role. Other than that, every single rotation player is under contract, most of them at an extremely affordable rate. This gives Portland some flexibility in terms of pursuing trades, although most of the players they'd be willing to trade have limited value on the market.
Looking ahead, Aldridge, Lopez and Matthews will all be entering the last years of their deals. Portland stands at the fault line of what could be a seismic event: Do you continue to build the team around this core, or do you attempt to swing a blockbuster to move these more attractive pieces?
Doolittle: Two things about Portland have to be monitored. The number of young players who contributed little to the playoff effort is troubling -- Leonard, McCollum, Barton, Freeland and Victor Claver all barely left the bench, while the starters labored for heavy minutes. All of those players could have used seasoning in the D-League, but Portland preferred to develop them in practice, and after the season gave up its D-League affiliate. So is player development a problem? Too soon to say. Also, Aldridge's contract situation bears close watching. I wouldn't jettison him now after the team improved so much this year, but if next year is disappointing, and Robinson takes a big step forward, moving Aldridge at next year's trade deadline could be the next step for a franchise that is eventually going to have to pay Lillard.
IV. The "ideal" roster:
Elhassan: The most the Blazers can offer Williams (without dipping into their midlevel exception) is a new deal starting at $3.3 million next season as a non-Bird free agent. If Williams opts out, there's a likelihood he might find a better deal elsewhere. For the purposes of this exercise, I'm going to assume that Williams does exactly that. McCollum assumes the main backup playmaking role as well as scoring off the bench, while Barton also gets more minutes. Meanwhile, I used $4 million of the midlevel exception to sign Udoh as backup center, where he can keep the Portland defense afloat whenever Lopez goes to the bench. Like Lopez, he's not a voracious rebounder, but playing alongside Aldridge and Robinson, he won't need to be. Admittedly, this is a conservative approach to the offseason, but I think retaining the flexibility moving into 2015 and beyond holds precedence over making a splash in free agency.
The "Ideal" Roster
Position Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Robin Lopez 27 $6.1m 5.5
PG Damian Lillard 25 $3.3m 9.4
SG Wesley Matthews 29 $7.2m 5.2
SF Nicolas Batum 26 $11.8m 8.4
PF LaMarcus Aldridge 30 $16.0m 6.3
bC Ekpe Udoh 28 $4.0m -1.1
bPG C.J. McCollum 24 $2.4m -1.2
bSG Will Barton 24 $0.9m -0.1
bSF Dorell Wright 29 $3.1m 4.5
bPF Thomas Robinson 24 $3.7m -0.6
RES1 Joel Freeland 28 $3.0m -0.5
RES2 Meyers Leonard 23 $2.3m -0.9
Est. Payroll: $66.2 million; Updated Win Range: 45 to 49
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold = new player.
General manager Neil Olshey did an excellent job of plugging the biggest holes with talent that complemented the existing roster perfectly, but his job is far from done, and the Blazers must find a way to keep adding talent and keep improving on the strong campaign put together in 2013-14.
Here's a look at some of the ways they might do that.
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 48.3 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: The continued development and progression of Damian Lillard was nothing short of remarkable, as he made his first All-Star appearance in just his second season. Lillard's poise during the first playoff series of his career was noteworthy, although his inexperience became more evident in the second round against San Antonio, a team built to exploit any weakness. His ability to navigate off the dribble needs to improve, as does his effort on the defensive end, but overall Lillard was fantastic this year. LaMarcus Aldridge raised his level of play as the offensive workhorse that carried Portland through the season, a role that was no doubt made easier by the presence of Robin Lopez, who carried out much of the big-man dirty work and served as the defensive anchor the Blazers' starting lineup needed. On the wings, Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews were versatile defensively and excellent spacers. Overall, Portland's starting lineup was one of the most complete and efficient in the NBA.
[+] EnlargeKirk Hinrich
Mike DiNovo/USA TODAY Sports
Would Kirk Hinrich look good in a Portland jersey?
Doolittle: Clearly, the Trail Blazers are moving in the right direction. They leaped from 33 to 54 wins, improved 12 places to fifth in offensive efficiency and jumped 10 places to 16th on the defensive end. And they did so with the same core players, supplemented by experience and a couple of additions among the role players. The concern, if you want to call it that, about Lillard entering the season was that as a four-year college player, he might have entered the NBA near his ceiling. Well, he improved his winning percentage from .505 to .566, and still has plenty of room for improvement on the defensive end. Aldridge is smack in his prime, but will be near 30 by the end of next season, the last of his current contract. His impact on the Blazers is considerable despite a WARP (7.1) that ranked just 34th in the league, largely a function of a true shooting percentage that has tumbled from .560 to .507 over the last two years. Nevertheless, Aldridge's RPM of plus-5.05 ranked 10th in the league, and for most of the playoffs he certainly looked the part of a franchise player. The average age of the Portland starters next season will be 28, a fine age for a title contender.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: The Blazers' bench desperately needs help, although it's not as bad as it was a year ago. Mo Williams was a solid pickup, Thomas Robinson showed flashes and Dorell Wright had some memorable moments in the playoffs. Still, there's a major need for more shooting, more defense and a bona fide backup center for Lopez. Some of those concerns will be addressed by C.J. McCollum and Will Barton, but Joel Freeland looked outmatched most times and Meyers Leonard, for the time being, looks incapable of figuring out who he is and what he needs to be in this league. Some backup centers on the unrestricted market include Cole Aldrich and Aaron Gray, as solid "beat 'em up" players; a restricted free agent who could be a nice fit is Ekpe Udoh, as a long, defensive stalwart.
[+] EnlargeLaMarcus Aldridge
Scott Halleran/Getty Images
Will LaMarcus Aldridge be part of Portland's core going forward?
Doolittle: Barring a trade, there likely isn't going to be a whole lot of movement on the roster. Williams has a player option, and Portland does not have any picks in the upcoming draft. However, assuming Williams opts in, the Blazers will be sitting at around $65 million in payroll, so they're in a great spot for short-term upgrades. If Williams leaves, they will still have the full midlevel exception to replace him, and/or the biannual exception. Using either would hard-cap Portland for next season, but with so much room under the projected tax apron, that shouldn't be a problem.
If Williams stays -- the best scenario -- the Blazers can use the MLE to address the 16th-ranked defense. Portland actually defended shots well, placing seventh in effective field goal percentage and allowing the lowest frequency of 3s attempted. But the conservative approach that led to the lowest forced turnover rate in the league is an area where a dynamic defender would come in handy. Thabo Sefolosha and Kirk Hinrich are possibilities among perimeter players, while Andris Biedrins, Udoh or the possibly-available Anderson Varejao could be fits. Another name if money gets tight in Golden State: Draymond Green.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: If Williams chooses to decline his player option and test free agency, Portland will be faced with either having to re-sign him and still have to go shopping for other bench needs, or letting him walk and seeking to replace him in the trade/free agency market (they have no draft picks this year). Depending on McCollum's development, there might be an opportunity to move him into the primary guard-off-the-bench role. Other than that, every single rotation player is under contract, most of them at an extremely affordable rate. This gives Portland some flexibility in terms of pursuing trades, although most of the players they'd be willing to trade have limited value on the market.
Looking ahead, Aldridge, Lopez and Matthews will all be entering the last years of their deals. Portland stands at the fault line of what could be a seismic event: Do you continue to build the team around this core, or do you attempt to swing a blockbuster to move these more attractive pieces?
Doolittle: Two things about Portland have to be monitored. The number of young players who contributed little to the playoff effort is troubling -- Leonard, McCollum, Barton, Freeland and Victor Claver all barely left the bench, while the starters labored for heavy minutes. All of those players could have used seasoning in the D-League, but Portland preferred to develop them in practice, and after the season gave up its D-League affiliate. So is player development a problem? Too soon to say. Also, Aldridge's contract situation bears close watching. I wouldn't jettison him now after the team improved so much this year, but if next year is disappointing, and Robinson takes a big step forward, moving Aldridge at next year's trade deadline could be the next step for a franchise that is eventually going to have to pay Lillard.
IV. The "ideal" roster:
Elhassan: The most the Blazers can offer Williams (without dipping into their midlevel exception) is a new deal starting at $3.3 million next season as a non-Bird free agent. If Williams opts out, there's a likelihood he might find a better deal elsewhere. For the purposes of this exercise, I'm going to assume that Williams does exactly that. McCollum assumes the main backup playmaking role as well as scoring off the bench, while Barton also gets more minutes. Meanwhile, I used $4 million of the midlevel exception to sign Udoh as backup center, where he can keep the Portland defense afloat whenever Lopez goes to the bench. Like Lopez, he's not a voracious rebounder, but playing alongside Aldridge and Robinson, he won't need to be. Admittedly, this is a conservative approach to the offseason, but I think retaining the flexibility moving into 2015 and beyond holds precedence over making a splash in free agency.
The "Ideal" Roster
Position Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Robin Lopez 27 $6.1m 5.5
PG Damian Lillard 25 $3.3m 9.4
SG Wesley Matthews 29 $7.2m 5.2
SF Nicolas Batum 26 $11.8m 8.4
PF LaMarcus Aldridge 30 $16.0m 6.3
bC Ekpe Udoh 28 $4.0m -1.1
bPG C.J. McCollum 24 $2.4m -1.2
bSG Will Barton 24 $0.9m -0.1
bSF Dorell Wright 29 $3.1m 4.5
bPF Thomas Robinson 24 $3.7m -0.6
RES1 Joel Freeland 28 $3.0m -0.5
RES2 Meyers Leonard 23 $2.3m -0.9
Est. Payroll: $66.2 million; Updated Win Range: 45 to 49
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold = new player.
Roster Reload: Brooklyn Nets.
It's hard not to think about the 2013-14 Brooklyn Nets without terms like "wanton excess" coming to mind.
Last season, the Nets paid around $95 million in salary and luxury tax to win 49 games, land a 4-seed in a mediocre conference, and end their season with a first-round defeat. This time around, Brooklyn will dole out in the neighborhood of $190 million for its roster, which won 44 games, a 6-seed in a bad conference and a second-round elimination. This kind of superfluous spending would make Caligula blush.
But hey, it's not our money, so the concern is not so much the tiny dent the massive payroll will make in Mikhail Prokhorov's Great Pyramid-sized heap of cash. It's about what comes next for the random collection of future Hall of Famers and former All-Stars that comprised this season's roster. Most of the time, disappointment is the outcome for so-called super rosters, but the league's mega-rich owners always seem tempted to try the formula. With limited financial flexibility, no draft picks of consequence and a core on the wrong side of the aging curve, is there any hope for a better outcome in 2015?
2014-15 Status quote baseline: 50.9 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: The Nets were a team built to win now; in the process of achieving that, they mortgaged away almost every asset that had any chance of growing into something more than what it already is. The lone exceptions: Brook Lopez, who missed most of the season to injury, and rookie Mason Plumlee, whose play improved tremendously over the course of the campaign, showing the promise he was drafted upon as an elite rebounder and high-level athlete who finishes above the rim. Beyond that, the roster is a potpourri of overpaid vets who are in the twilight of their careers, although they did get an All-Star campaign from Joe Johnson. Deron Williams was inconsistent all season, showing flashes of brilliance coupled with disappearing stretches, most notably during their playoff series against the Toronto Raptors. The worry for Brooklyn is that while Lopez and Plumlee might take steps to improve in 2014-15, everyone else is a year older, and likely deteriorating in ability.
[+] EnlargeJason Kidd
Adam Hunger/USA TODAY Sports
Jason Kidd's coaching abilities improved this season, but can he really enact a major change?
One area for growth is head coach Jason Kidd, who was off to a rocky start earlier this season, clashing with his hand-picked lead assistant Lawrence Frank after a month on the job and being the center of Spillgate (instructing Tyshawn Taylor to bump into him to spill his drink and secure an unofficial timeout). Since then, Kidd has improved as a leader and coach, and improved at the job, juggling unconventional lineups to exploit matchups.
Doolittle: You can look at the Nets' status quo baseline two ways. Brooklyn was outscored this season, making them fortunate to get to 44 wins. They also had a minutes-weighted team age of 30.3 years old, the third-oldest in the league. So the fact that their 2014-15 outlook starts at nearly 51 wins could mean one of three things: The Nets really underachieved last season, a full season of Brook Lopez will make quite an impact, or this roster as a group is considerably less than the sum of its parts. I'll go with door No. 3, with a caveat. Now with Paul Pierce headed to free agency, and Kevin Garnett perhaps heading to retirement, the Nets could lose a tremendous amount of value, ill fit or not. Given Brooklyn's lack of options in the personnel department, this is one projection that could go south in a hurry.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: This is the doomsday scenario many critics feared would happen to Brooklyn when they completed their acquisition of Garnett and Pierce: They've literally run out of assets to attract suitors in the trade market. By virtue of being a luxury-tax payer, the only mechanisms they have to sign free agents are via the $3 million taxpayer's mid-level exception and minimum deals, the latter of which they got great value out of with Andrei Kirilenko, Alan Anderson and Shaun Livingston. Still, these options are good for adding supporting cast, while Brooklyn needs better high-caliber contributions. Signing-and-trading Pierce away might be an avenue to add talent, but it seems unlikely that there will be teams looking to divest assets to acquire the veteran for a price point beyond the mid-level exception.
[+] EnlargeKevin Garnett and Paul Pierce
AP Photo/Kathy Willens
The decision for Kevin Garnett (No. 2) may hinge on Paul Pierce's call this summer.
One option that allegedly might have been available earlier this season was a deal with Houston to trade for Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin, both of whom have contacts with cap hits of about $8.4 million but cash outs of almost $15 million apiece. Brooklyn is one of a handful of team that could swing the deal and not bat an eye at the extra cash expenditures.
Doolittle: Barring a creative trade, it's hard to see how the Nets could be shaken up in any significant way over the summer. Really, it just will come down to whether or not Pierce re-signs, and if he does, whether that and $12 million entices KG to come back for one more season. Even if both players leave, the Nets have more than $73 million in committed salary for next season. That doesn't include player options held by Kirilenko ($3.3 million), Andray Blatche ($1.4 million) and Anderson ($1.1 million). Kirilenko (0.2 WARP) didn't have much of a role, though that could change if Pierce leaves. Blatche had the Nets' third-best WARP (4.4) and can do better on the open market. Chances are, the Nets will have only the taxpayer mid-level exception to add a rotation-caliber player, and they may well have to use that to keep Livingston in the fold. Livingston didn't have glowing metrics (1.1 WARP, minus-0.3 RPM), but he was a solid, low-usage lineup fit alongside Williams.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: I hate to keep beating a dead horse, but the Nets have painted themselves in a corner. There are three ways a team can improve its roster: via draft (they have no picks), via trade (they have few tradable assets) and via free agency (they have limited financial latitude to sign free agents). The only deals that will make themselves apparent will be the types in which they have to take on more toxic contracts in return, sort of how they acquired Marcus Thornton at the trade deadline. They could choose to dangle Plumlee, but that would be their last gasp of youth sacrificed at the altar.
Doolittle: The money issues are the big thing, but l'd like to see some creative thinking. The Nets need to get more athletic and they may have to improve a 19th-place finish in defensive efficiency without Garnett in the fold. Lopez will be a key factor in that, and Brooklyn will be keeping its fingers crossed that his foot problems are behind him. With the abilities of Johnson and Livingston to post up as well as hit from the perimeter, plus Lopez's versatile offensive repertoire, the Nets should be able to create mismatches on the offensive end on most possessions. The Nets finished 14th in assist rate, and it should be Kidd's priority to move into the top five. As for the defense, the Nets finished fifth in forced turnovers, and if Kirilenko returns, he fits right into that in a bigger role. Does Kidd -- short on experience -- have the vision to make this all work?
IV. The "Ideal" Roster
Doolitte: This assumes that Brooklyn is able to retain Livingston with its exception, which may not be possible. If he goes, I'd like to see the Nets pursue someone such as Charlotte's Josh McRoberts, whose excellent season may put him out of the reach of a taxpayer mid-level exception, but he'd be a good fit for a versatile lineup that can invert itself with post-up guards because of his ability to shoot from deep. His athleticism would play well next to Lopez, and would give Kidd the option of fielding a defensive unit of McRoberts, Jorge Gutierrez, Kirilenko and Plumlee to go with one of the team's scorers.
Beyond that, I'm assuming that Pierce and Garnett are gone, as is Blatche. Given the revised baseline, Brooklyn fans better hope they all opt to come back.
The "Ideal" Roster
Position Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Brook Lopez 27 $15.7m 9.6
PG Deron Williams 31 $19.8m 8.0
SG Shaun Livingston 30 $3.3m -0.5
SF Joe Johnson 34 $23.2m 4.8
PF Mirza Teletovic 30 $3.2m 5.4
bC Mason Plumlee 25 $1.4m 5.0
bPG Jorge Gutierrez 26 $0.8m -1.4
bSG Marcus Thornton 28 $8.6m 2.8
bSF Alan Anderson 33 $1.1m -0.8
bPF Andrei Kirilenko 34 $3.3m 1.4
RES1 Jason Collins 36 $0.9m -3.1
RES2 Marquis Teague 22 $1.1m -0.8
Est. Payroll: $83.5 million; Updated Win Range: 39 to 43
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold = new player.
Last season, the Nets paid around $95 million in salary and luxury tax to win 49 games, land a 4-seed in a mediocre conference, and end their season with a first-round defeat. This time around, Brooklyn will dole out in the neighborhood of $190 million for its roster, which won 44 games, a 6-seed in a bad conference and a second-round elimination. This kind of superfluous spending would make Caligula blush.
But hey, it's not our money, so the concern is not so much the tiny dent the massive payroll will make in Mikhail Prokhorov's Great Pyramid-sized heap of cash. It's about what comes next for the random collection of future Hall of Famers and former All-Stars that comprised this season's roster. Most of the time, disappointment is the outcome for so-called super rosters, but the league's mega-rich owners always seem tempted to try the formula. With limited financial flexibility, no draft picks of consequence and a core on the wrong side of the aging curve, is there any hope for a better outcome in 2015?
2014-15 Status quote baseline: 50.9 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: The Nets were a team built to win now; in the process of achieving that, they mortgaged away almost every asset that had any chance of growing into something more than what it already is. The lone exceptions: Brook Lopez, who missed most of the season to injury, and rookie Mason Plumlee, whose play improved tremendously over the course of the campaign, showing the promise he was drafted upon as an elite rebounder and high-level athlete who finishes above the rim. Beyond that, the roster is a potpourri of overpaid vets who are in the twilight of their careers, although they did get an All-Star campaign from Joe Johnson. Deron Williams was inconsistent all season, showing flashes of brilliance coupled with disappearing stretches, most notably during their playoff series against the Toronto Raptors. The worry for Brooklyn is that while Lopez and Plumlee might take steps to improve in 2014-15, everyone else is a year older, and likely deteriorating in ability.
[+] EnlargeJason Kidd
Adam Hunger/USA TODAY Sports
Jason Kidd's coaching abilities improved this season, but can he really enact a major change?
One area for growth is head coach Jason Kidd, who was off to a rocky start earlier this season, clashing with his hand-picked lead assistant Lawrence Frank after a month on the job and being the center of Spillgate (instructing Tyshawn Taylor to bump into him to spill his drink and secure an unofficial timeout). Since then, Kidd has improved as a leader and coach, and improved at the job, juggling unconventional lineups to exploit matchups.
Doolittle: You can look at the Nets' status quo baseline two ways. Brooklyn was outscored this season, making them fortunate to get to 44 wins. They also had a minutes-weighted team age of 30.3 years old, the third-oldest in the league. So the fact that their 2014-15 outlook starts at nearly 51 wins could mean one of three things: The Nets really underachieved last season, a full season of Brook Lopez will make quite an impact, or this roster as a group is considerably less than the sum of its parts. I'll go with door No. 3, with a caveat. Now with Paul Pierce headed to free agency, and Kevin Garnett perhaps heading to retirement, the Nets could lose a tremendous amount of value, ill fit or not. Given Brooklyn's lack of options in the personnel department, this is one projection that could go south in a hurry.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: This is the doomsday scenario many critics feared would happen to Brooklyn when they completed their acquisition of Garnett and Pierce: They've literally run out of assets to attract suitors in the trade market. By virtue of being a luxury-tax payer, the only mechanisms they have to sign free agents are via the $3 million taxpayer's mid-level exception and minimum deals, the latter of which they got great value out of with Andrei Kirilenko, Alan Anderson and Shaun Livingston. Still, these options are good for adding supporting cast, while Brooklyn needs better high-caliber contributions. Signing-and-trading Pierce away might be an avenue to add talent, but it seems unlikely that there will be teams looking to divest assets to acquire the veteran for a price point beyond the mid-level exception.
[+] EnlargeKevin Garnett and Paul Pierce
AP Photo/Kathy Willens
The decision for Kevin Garnett (No. 2) may hinge on Paul Pierce's call this summer.
One option that allegedly might have been available earlier this season was a deal with Houston to trade for Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin, both of whom have contacts with cap hits of about $8.4 million but cash outs of almost $15 million apiece. Brooklyn is one of a handful of team that could swing the deal and not bat an eye at the extra cash expenditures.
Doolittle: Barring a creative trade, it's hard to see how the Nets could be shaken up in any significant way over the summer. Really, it just will come down to whether or not Pierce re-signs, and if he does, whether that and $12 million entices KG to come back for one more season. Even if both players leave, the Nets have more than $73 million in committed salary for next season. That doesn't include player options held by Kirilenko ($3.3 million), Andray Blatche ($1.4 million) and Anderson ($1.1 million). Kirilenko (0.2 WARP) didn't have much of a role, though that could change if Pierce leaves. Blatche had the Nets' third-best WARP (4.4) and can do better on the open market. Chances are, the Nets will have only the taxpayer mid-level exception to add a rotation-caliber player, and they may well have to use that to keep Livingston in the fold. Livingston didn't have glowing metrics (1.1 WARP, minus-0.3 RPM), but he was a solid, low-usage lineup fit alongside Williams.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: I hate to keep beating a dead horse, but the Nets have painted themselves in a corner. There are three ways a team can improve its roster: via draft (they have no picks), via trade (they have few tradable assets) and via free agency (they have limited financial latitude to sign free agents). The only deals that will make themselves apparent will be the types in which they have to take on more toxic contracts in return, sort of how they acquired Marcus Thornton at the trade deadline. They could choose to dangle Plumlee, but that would be their last gasp of youth sacrificed at the altar.
Doolittle: The money issues are the big thing, but l'd like to see some creative thinking. The Nets need to get more athletic and they may have to improve a 19th-place finish in defensive efficiency without Garnett in the fold. Lopez will be a key factor in that, and Brooklyn will be keeping its fingers crossed that his foot problems are behind him. With the abilities of Johnson and Livingston to post up as well as hit from the perimeter, plus Lopez's versatile offensive repertoire, the Nets should be able to create mismatches on the offensive end on most possessions. The Nets finished 14th in assist rate, and it should be Kidd's priority to move into the top five. As for the defense, the Nets finished fifth in forced turnovers, and if Kirilenko returns, he fits right into that in a bigger role. Does Kidd -- short on experience -- have the vision to make this all work?
IV. The "Ideal" Roster
Doolitte: This assumes that Brooklyn is able to retain Livingston with its exception, which may not be possible. If he goes, I'd like to see the Nets pursue someone such as Charlotte's Josh McRoberts, whose excellent season may put him out of the reach of a taxpayer mid-level exception, but he'd be a good fit for a versatile lineup that can invert itself with post-up guards because of his ability to shoot from deep. His athleticism would play well next to Lopez, and would give Kidd the option of fielding a defensive unit of McRoberts, Jorge Gutierrez, Kirilenko and Plumlee to go with one of the team's scorers.
Beyond that, I'm assuming that Pierce and Garnett are gone, as is Blatche. Given the revised baseline, Brooklyn fans better hope they all opt to come back.
The "Ideal" Roster
Position Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Brook Lopez 27 $15.7m 9.6
PG Deron Williams 31 $19.8m 8.0
SG Shaun Livingston 30 $3.3m -0.5
SF Joe Johnson 34 $23.2m 4.8
PF Mirza Teletovic 30 $3.2m 5.4
bC Mason Plumlee 25 $1.4m 5.0
bPG Jorge Gutierrez 26 $0.8m -1.4
bSG Marcus Thornton 28 $8.6m 2.8
bSF Alan Anderson 33 $1.1m -0.8
bPF Andrei Kirilenko 34 $3.3m 1.4
RES1 Jason Collins 36 $0.9m -3.1
RES2 Marquis Teague 22 $1.1m -0.8
Est. Payroll: $83.5 million; Updated Win Range: 39 to 43
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold = new player.
Roster Reload: Washington Wizards.
Once upon a time, the District of Columbia was not just the capital of this country, it was arguably the capital of professional basketball. During a decade that was one of the most egalitarian periods in NBA annals, the then-Washington Bullets won more games than any other Eastern Conference club, took four conference championships, won the 1978 NBA Finals and perpetuated a 12-year streak of reaching the postseason. Led by the two best players in franchise history -- Wes Unseld and Elvin Hayes -- Washington was a constant in the ever-changing NBA power structure. That was then, and the franchise we now know as the Wizards has not won 50 games in any season since Washington lost the 1979 Finals to Seattle.
This season, the Wizards advanced past the first round for the first time since 2004. This kind of mediocrity has been achieved in Washington before with teams occasionally bobbing above the .500 mark to eke into the playoffs, but this time feels different. In John Wall and Bradley Beal, the Wizards might have found their best one-two punch since the days of Unseld and Hayes. But D.C. has seen young duos before, with Jeff Ruland-Rick Mahorn in the 1980s, Juwan Howard-Chris Webber in the 1990s and Gilbert Arenas-Caron Butler this past decade. Can the Wizards build upon this season's progress, or will a franchise mired in mediocrity for three decades ebb back into the muck?
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 41.5 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
[+] EnlargeNene
AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast
Nene's age puts his future status with the Wizards in question.
Elhassan: Any conversation about Washington's core has to start with its neophyte backcourt, one that's in the conversation as the best in the league. Wall took a huge step forward as far as shooting from 3-point range goes, knocking down 36 percent of his above-the-break 3s this season, but still takes way too many midrange shots (more than any other area of the floor) and needs to continue to improve at changing tempo. Beal was marvelous from beyond the arc and grew as an off-the-dribble threat and creating for others, culminating with some star-quality performances in the playoffs. But he, too, shares Wall's penchant for midrange jumpers without being particularly good at them. Together, Wall and Beal have great synergy and allow each other to flip roles as far as facilitating and finishing. Up front, Nene Hilario continued his trend of being a go-to big man who can score inside and out, but he has been extremely unreliable from a health standpoint, missing 20-plus games for the third consecutive season.
Doolittle: While the two pillars of the Wizards' future -- Wall and Beal -- are both young, this isn't a young team overall. Nene and Marcin Gortat are more than 30 years old, and Trevor Ariza will nearly crest that hill by the end of next season. The bench included plus-30 veterans, such as Drew Gooden, Andre Miller and Al Harrington. Overall, Washington's minutes-weighted team age was the 11th-oldest in the NBA. The rough projections used in the Roster Reload series aren't schedule-adjusted. So when you consider that Washington won 44 games in a poor conference, had a point differential to match its record and is getting older at some key rotation spots, the tepid baseline makes sense. However, if Wall continues to improve and Beal explodes into a double-digit WARP player next season, suddenly a status-quo Washington roster looks like a probable top-four playoff seed a year from now.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: With as many as six rotation players facing free agency, the Wizards have to ride that fine line between improving the roster and ruining the chemistry they found. Ariza and Gortat are the two free-agency priorities but also probably the most expensive. Gortat's presence at center allowed Nene to move to his preferred power forward position, while Ariza was one of the best defensive wings with 3-point range in the league, and neither of those positions comes with a discounted price tag. With the cap hits each of those players will hold, there is a strong likelihood that Washington will not be able to operate as an under-the-cap team unless Ariza and Gortat sign elsewhere or Washington renounces them. Miller's partially guaranteed contract (only $2 million guaranteed if waived by June 2
might be an attractive draft-day trade chip, in which case pursuing a backup point guard becomes a priority come free agency. If so, Patty Mills is a name I'd look for as far as someone who can push the pace, shoot from deep and play alongside Wall and Beal in small-ball lineups.
[+] EnlargeOtto Porter Jr.
Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports
Otto Porter might need to step into a much larger role next season.
Doolittle: While the Wizards might look similar next season, there is an opportunity to shake things up if GM Ernie Grunfeld sees fit -- and if you look at Gortat and Ariza in terms of cap space instead of departing talent. Both are unrestricted free agents and will be joined by restricted free agents Trevor Booker and Kevin Seraphin. Miller has a partially guaranteed deal for next season, while bit players Harrington, Garrett Temple, Gooden and Chris Singleton are headed for the open market. The Wizards could max out cap space at about $16.3 million, although a figure of about $11.1 million of flexibility would be a more comfortable target. There are two general approaches for Grunfeld to choose from: keep the gang together or swing for the fences. On the latter front, if you imagine a scenario in which Ariza, Nene and some future ballast such as a draft pick (Washington doesn't have a 2014 first-rounder) and Otto Porter are included in a blockbuster sign-and-trade scenario, then you could see Carmelo Anthony joining up with Gortat, Wall and Beal. Anthony went to high school in nearby Baltimore and would really ignite the Wizards' fan base. However, you have to squint real hard into your imagination to see this coming together. Dare to dream. More realistically, the Wizards will have to straddle the fence between continuity and keeping some flexibility down the line.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: Although Washington experienced a revival this season, several serious questions remain. First and foremost, what's the ceiling for this current collection of talent? By locking up their free agents, the Wizards might be locking themselves into mediocrity, relying solely on the development of Wall and Beal (and to a lesser extent Porter) to carry them forward as the talent around them stagnates or even gets worse. Second, is coach Randy Wittman the right man for the job? His contract expires at the end of the season, at which point Washington can pursue an upgrade (especially considering the wealth of candidates on the market) but risk shaking up the growth that Wittman has overseen. On the other hand, committing to him with a new deal might contribute to being locked in mediocrity; in other words, what if Wittman has already done all he can do for this group?
Doolittle: The Wizards' probable conservative approach will primarily be dictated by the two years, $26 million left on Nene's deal, because the timing of that contract's expiration will coincide with the first year of a Beal extension. So to me, you have to tweak the edges, keep the deals your incoming players sign at two years or fewer and hope your young players continue to grow. It also means choosing between Gortat and Ariza, with the latter the more likely to walk. Gortat plays a position of greater scarcity, and Washington has Porter and Martell Webster to take over Ariza's spot. The decision is a hit on Washington's short-term projection, as we're talking about replacing Ariza's .576 percentage with whatever Porter grows to from his rookie-season mark of .283. Nevertheless, making that decision helps in two years, when Nene walks, Beal is extended and you still will have plenty of cap space to make a splash addition to the Wall-Beal-Gortat-Porter foundation.
IV. The "ideal" roster:
Doolittle: The Wizards had two primary areas of weakness, and with our conservative approach, they will have to address them with tweaks to the second unit. To that end, I have them splitting their midlevel exception to land Jodie Meeks and Chris Kaman. The Wizards finished dead last in foul-drawing this season, and the new duo helps in that area, though they won't fix it. Meeks is a premier perimeter threat but has developed a surprising ability to put the ball on the floor against close-outs. He can be used in a small lineup with Wall, Beal and Porter to spread the floor against big lineups. Kaman helps the interior on both ends. The Wizards ranked 21st in 2-point percentage allowed and just 26th in points per play of post-ups, per Synergy Sports Technologies. Much of this proposed Wizards offseason blueprint depends upon Porter growing into a much better player than we saw this season. That's a possibility because a summer injury and limited playing time might have affected Porter's production more than a lack of opportunity.
The "Ideal" Roster
Position Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Marcin Gortat 31 $8.3m 3.4
PG John Wall 25 $13.7m 8.3
SG Bradley Beal 22 $4.5m 5.7
SF Otto Porter Jr. 22 $4.5m -3.6
PF Nene Hilario 33 $13.0m 1.9
bC Chris Kaman 33 $2.0m 0.8
bPG Andre Miller 39 $4.6m 0.5
bSG Jodie Meeks 28 $3.2m 2.2
bSF Martell Webster 28 $5.4m 2.2
bPF Trevor Booker 27 $3.2m 1.2
RES1 Glen Rice Jr. 24 $0.8m -0.6
RES2 Drew Gooden 34 $0.9m 0.2
Est. Payroll: $70.2 million; Updated Win Range: 36 to 40
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold = new player.
This season, the Wizards advanced past the first round for the first time since 2004. This kind of mediocrity has been achieved in Washington before with teams occasionally bobbing above the .500 mark to eke into the playoffs, but this time feels different. In John Wall and Bradley Beal, the Wizards might have found their best one-two punch since the days of Unseld and Hayes. But D.C. has seen young duos before, with Jeff Ruland-Rick Mahorn in the 1980s, Juwan Howard-Chris Webber in the 1990s and Gilbert Arenas-Caron Butler this past decade. Can the Wizards build upon this season's progress, or will a franchise mired in mediocrity for three decades ebb back into the muck?
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 41.5 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
[+] EnlargeNene
AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast
Nene's age puts his future status with the Wizards in question.
Elhassan: Any conversation about Washington's core has to start with its neophyte backcourt, one that's in the conversation as the best in the league. Wall took a huge step forward as far as shooting from 3-point range goes, knocking down 36 percent of his above-the-break 3s this season, but still takes way too many midrange shots (more than any other area of the floor) and needs to continue to improve at changing tempo. Beal was marvelous from beyond the arc and grew as an off-the-dribble threat and creating for others, culminating with some star-quality performances in the playoffs. But he, too, shares Wall's penchant for midrange jumpers without being particularly good at them. Together, Wall and Beal have great synergy and allow each other to flip roles as far as facilitating and finishing. Up front, Nene Hilario continued his trend of being a go-to big man who can score inside and out, but he has been extremely unreliable from a health standpoint, missing 20-plus games for the third consecutive season.
Doolittle: While the two pillars of the Wizards' future -- Wall and Beal -- are both young, this isn't a young team overall. Nene and Marcin Gortat are more than 30 years old, and Trevor Ariza will nearly crest that hill by the end of next season. The bench included plus-30 veterans, such as Drew Gooden, Andre Miller and Al Harrington. Overall, Washington's minutes-weighted team age was the 11th-oldest in the NBA. The rough projections used in the Roster Reload series aren't schedule-adjusted. So when you consider that Washington won 44 games in a poor conference, had a point differential to match its record and is getting older at some key rotation spots, the tepid baseline makes sense. However, if Wall continues to improve and Beal explodes into a double-digit WARP player next season, suddenly a status-quo Washington roster looks like a probable top-four playoff seed a year from now.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: With as many as six rotation players facing free agency, the Wizards have to ride that fine line between improving the roster and ruining the chemistry they found. Ariza and Gortat are the two free-agency priorities but also probably the most expensive. Gortat's presence at center allowed Nene to move to his preferred power forward position, while Ariza was one of the best defensive wings with 3-point range in the league, and neither of those positions comes with a discounted price tag. With the cap hits each of those players will hold, there is a strong likelihood that Washington will not be able to operate as an under-the-cap team unless Ariza and Gortat sign elsewhere or Washington renounces them. Miller's partially guaranteed contract (only $2 million guaranteed if waived by June 2
might be an attractive draft-day trade chip, in which case pursuing a backup point guard becomes a priority come free agency. If so, Patty Mills is a name I'd look for as far as someone who can push the pace, shoot from deep and play alongside Wall and Beal in small-ball lineups.[+] EnlargeOtto Porter Jr.
Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports
Otto Porter might need to step into a much larger role next season.
Doolittle: While the Wizards might look similar next season, there is an opportunity to shake things up if GM Ernie Grunfeld sees fit -- and if you look at Gortat and Ariza in terms of cap space instead of departing talent. Both are unrestricted free agents and will be joined by restricted free agents Trevor Booker and Kevin Seraphin. Miller has a partially guaranteed deal for next season, while bit players Harrington, Garrett Temple, Gooden and Chris Singleton are headed for the open market. The Wizards could max out cap space at about $16.3 million, although a figure of about $11.1 million of flexibility would be a more comfortable target. There are two general approaches for Grunfeld to choose from: keep the gang together or swing for the fences. On the latter front, if you imagine a scenario in which Ariza, Nene and some future ballast such as a draft pick (Washington doesn't have a 2014 first-rounder) and Otto Porter are included in a blockbuster sign-and-trade scenario, then you could see Carmelo Anthony joining up with Gortat, Wall and Beal. Anthony went to high school in nearby Baltimore and would really ignite the Wizards' fan base. However, you have to squint real hard into your imagination to see this coming together. Dare to dream. More realistically, the Wizards will have to straddle the fence between continuity and keeping some flexibility down the line.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: Although Washington experienced a revival this season, several serious questions remain. First and foremost, what's the ceiling for this current collection of talent? By locking up their free agents, the Wizards might be locking themselves into mediocrity, relying solely on the development of Wall and Beal (and to a lesser extent Porter) to carry them forward as the talent around them stagnates or even gets worse. Second, is coach Randy Wittman the right man for the job? His contract expires at the end of the season, at which point Washington can pursue an upgrade (especially considering the wealth of candidates on the market) but risk shaking up the growth that Wittman has overseen. On the other hand, committing to him with a new deal might contribute to being locked in mediocrity; in other words, what if Wittman has already done all he can do for this group?
Doolittle: The Wizards' probable conservative approach will primarily be dictated by the two years, $26 million left on Nene's deal, because the timing of that contract's expiration will coincide with the first year of a Beal extension. So to me, you have to tweak the edges, keep the deals your incoming players sign at two years or fewer and hope your young players continue to grow. It also means choosing between Gortat and Ariza, with the latter the more likely to walk. Gortat plays a position of greater scarcity, and Washington has Porter and Martell Webster to take over Ariza's spot. The decision is a hit on Washington's short-term projection, as we're talking about replacing Ariza's .576 percentage with whatever Porter grows to from his rookie-season mark of .283. Nevertheless, making that decision helps in two years, when Nene walks, Beal is extended and you still will have plenty of cap space to make a splash addition to the Wall-Beal-Gortat-Porter foundation.
IV. The "ideal" roster:
Doolittle: The Wizards had two primary areas of weakness, and with our conservative approach, they will have to address them with tweaks to the second unit. To that end, I have them splitting their midlevel exception to land Jodie Meeks and Chris Kaman. The Wizards finished dead last in foul-drawing this season, and the new duo helps in that area, though they won't fix it. Meeks is a premier perimeter threat but has developed a surprising ability to put the ball on the floor against close-outs. He can be used in a small lineup with Wall, Beal and Porter to spread the floor against big lineups. Kaman helps the interior on both ends. The Wizards ranked 21st in 2-point percentage allowed and just 26th in points per play of post-ups, per Synergy Sports Technologies. Much of this proposed Wizards offseason blueprint depends upon Porter growing into a much better player than we saw this season. That's a possibility because a summer injury and limited playing time might have affected Porter's production more than a lack of opportunity.
The "Ideal" Roster
Position Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Marcin Gortat 31 $8.3m 3.4
PG John Wall 25 $13.7m 8.3
SG Bradley Beal 22 $4.5m 5.7
SF Otto Porter Jr. 22 $4.5m -3.6
PF Nene Hilario 33 $13.0m 1.9
bC Chris Kaman 33 $2.0m 0.8
bPG Andre Miller 39 $4.6m 0.5
bSG Jodie Meeks 28 $3.2m 2.2
bSF Martell Webster 28 $5.4m 2.2
bPF Trevor Booker 27 $3.2m 1.2
RES1 Glen Rice Jr. 24 $0.8m -0.6
RES2 Drew Gooden 34 $0.9m 0.2
Est. Payroll: $70.2 million; Updated Win Range: 36 to 40
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold = new player.
Roster Reload: Indiana Pacers.
The Indiana Pacers' late-season slide began with a seemingly benign home loss to Golden State on March 4. Before that the Pacers were a league-best 46-13, but proceeded to stumble to a 10-13 finish. The slide nearly became a full-blown collapse when the Pacers fell behind both Atlanta and Washington in the playoffs, but when Indiana beat Miami in Game 1 of the East finals, it seemed like order had been restored.
This is where the Pacers had been pointed all along. Unfortunately, Indiana was so thoroughly throttled for the duration of the series, that the enigma of Indiana's post-All-Star stagger has again taken center stage. Under Frank Vogel, the Pacers have posted their second-highest three-year winning percentage in club history. The best three-year stretch was 1998 to 2000. The coach for those seasons? Larry Bird, who as the Pacers' team president now must decide whether to stay the course with a club that veered wildly off the title-contending path it once seemed to be on.
2014-15 baseline (if all current players returned): 44.7 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets
Elhassan: Indiana has much of its core under contract; whether that's a good or bad thing depends on your point of view. Paul George started to come into his own this season as an all-round talent, but was ultimately incapable of handling the burden of being the main offensive weapon and "set the table" guy for his teammates. He's still a fantastic talent, and quite possibly the best wing defender in the league, but clearly needs help offensively. Lance Stephenson took a big step forward as a utility offensive player with defensive prowess, but similarly lost focus and discipline as the season wore on. Roy Hibbert started the year almost as the de facto Defensive Player of the Year (and a clear thorn in the side of the Miami Heat), but underwent a massive regression over the second half of the season that gives rise to serious concern about two more years and more than $30 million allotted to him, especially given his limitations versus teams with stretch bigs. Similarly, the money devoted to David West ($24 million over two years) seems to outpace his contributions to the team, no trivial matter for a small-market team intent on staying under the tax threshold.
[+] EnlargeRoy Hibbert
AP Photo/Michael Conroy
Roy Hibbert's contract suddenly looks a little questionable.
Doolittle: The Pacers will look a little better in a fully realized projection that better models their team defense, but nevertheless they have a number of players who don't have glowing forecasts. George projects to 11.5 WARP, down from his 13.7 mark for the 2013-14 season, because regression in his numbers outstrips his career pattern, but he figures to remain an All-Star performer. It's a similar tale for Stephenson (forecast for 1.4 WARP), who also made a drastic leap. If those players repeat their performances from this season, it pushes the Indiana baseline over 50 wins. However, the Pacers' second unit projects for a combined 0.0 WARP -- zero. That's got to improve. Upgrading the bench seems to be an annual item on the Indiana summer to-do list. Overall, the Pacers are the 10th-oldest team in the league, and they aren't likely to get younger: Indiana's only selection in the June draft is No. 57.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: Indiana must have breathed a sigh of relief upon hearing the new cap and tax projections for 2014-15, expected to be around $63 million and $77 million, respectively. This gives the Pacers roughly $9 million to spend on retaining Stephenson without crossing the tax threshold. I don't see any way Evan Turner can be retained. He was a poor fit offensively, and a defensive sieve, but as a restricted free agent, I wonder what (if any) sign-and-trade value he holds. Luis Scola's contract is only partially guaranteed, and at a $4.9 million cap hit, he's a likely candidate for waivers. The resulting space could be used to try to upgrade the backup power forward position with a more athletic, scoring big.
[+] EnlargeEvan Turner
Brian Spurlock/USA TODAY Sports
Evan Turner should be cut loose before next season.
Doolittle: First, I agree with Kevin Pelton, and would not make a coaching change unless Bird really wants to take the job himself. Vogel has been a huge part of Indiana's rise into contention, excelling as a defensive strategist, motivator and in developing players. That doesn't absolve him for his part in Indiana's slide. After March 4, the Pacers ranked ninth in defensive efficiency and dead last on offense, and did so with a healthy roster -- it's not like they collapsed because of an injury to George. Vogel also deserves blame for his inability to solve Atlanta's 3-point barrage.
At the same time, there were roster issues at play, which falls on Bird. The trade for Evan Turner hurt the Pacers. First, Stephenson's game went into decline after the move, and the loss of Granger hurt the Pacers in the Atlanta series -- he would have allowed Vogel to play small, moving West to center and using Granger at the 4. Even in his diminished state, Granger ranked in the 94th percentile as a defender, according to Synergy Sports Technologies. And it's not like these things should have been a surprise. With a more productive bench that better complements their starting lineup, the Pacers can be a more adaptable postseason team next season.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: As I mentioned earlier, the rising cap and tax give Indiana a lot more breathing room and remove the threat of going into punitive tax territory. That said, breathing room doesn't necessarily mean all ducks will line up, so Stephenson's market value may inflate, at which point overpays to Hibbert, West and George Hill start to look very short-sighted. Additionally, the furor around Vogel's job security only serves to overcomplicate issues.
Doolittle: They need to fix the bench. Luis Scola's deal for $4.8 million next season is partially guaranteed, and I'd let him walk. He's redundant to West, provides little more than empty jump shooting and will be 35. I'd keep the starting lineup intact -- despite everything, it's been the best lineup in the league over the past three years. Retaining Stephenson -- an unrestricted free agent -- may have gotten cheaper with his late-season drop-off, so I'm knocking $1 million off Amin's AAV projection from February. Turner, a restricted free agent? Gone. That leaves Bird around $11 million to fill three second-unit slots while remaining under the tax line the Pacers have vowed to never cross.
IV. An "Ideal" Roster
Ideal 20140-15 roster
Pos Player 2015 Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Roy Hibbert 28 $14.9m 3.7
PG George Hill 29 $8.0m 5.5
SG Lance Stephenson 25 $8.5m 1.4
SF Paul George 25 $13.7m 11.5
PF David West 35 $12.0m 5.0
bC Ian Mahinmi 28 $4.0m -0.8
bPG C.J. Watson 31 $2.1m 1.9
bSG Patrick Mills 27 $5.3m 5.4
bSF Jordan Hamilton 25 $0.9m 1.1
bPF Anthony Tolliver 30 $0.9m 1.6
RES1 Donald Sloan 27 $0.9m -0.4
RES2 Solomon Hill 23 $1.3m -0.2
Est. Payroll: : $72.5 million; Updated Win Range: 51 to 55
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
Doolittle: Indiana used its biannual exception last summer on C.J. Watson, but will have a full midlevel of about $5.3 million available. Using that and adding a couple of veteran minimum deals keeps Indiana under the tax and leaves some space for in-season moves. With Turner gone, Stephenson can return to his role as the primary playmaker for the second unit, but I feel like Indiana desperately needs a true point guard on that group who can create his own shot, and drive and kick. Mills is perfect for the job, while Hamilton and Tolliver give him options to kick to. That said, it might be tough for the Pacers to land the latter pair with the minimum, and if it is, they could try to split up the MLE.
This is where the Pacers had been pointed all along. Unfortunately, Indiana was so thoroughly throttled for the duration of the series, that the enigma of Indiana's post-All-Star stagger has again taken center stage. Under Frank Vogel, the Pacers have posted their second-highest three-year winning percentage in club history. The best three-year stretch was 1998 to 2000. The coach for those seasons? Larry Bird, who as the Pacers' team president now must decide whether to stay the course with a club that veered wildly off the title-contending path it once seemed to be on.
2014-15 baseline (if all current players returned): 44.7 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets
Elhassan: Indiana has much of its core under contract; whether that's a good or bad thing depends on your point of view. Paul George started to come into his own this season as an all-round talent, but was ultimately incapable of handling the burden of being the main offensive weapon and "set the table" guy for his teammates. He's still a fantastic talent, and quite possibly the best wing defender in the league, but clearly needs help offensively. Lance Stephenson took a big step forward as a utility offensive player with defensive prowess, but similarly lost focus and discipline as the season wore on. Roy Hibbert started the year almost as the de facto Defensive Player of the Year (and a clear thorn in the side of the Miami Heat), but underwent a massive regression over the second half of the season that gives rise to serious concern about two more years and more than $30 million allotted to him, especially given his limitations versus teams with stretch bigs. Similarly, the money devoted to David West ($24 million over two years) seems to outpace his contributions to the team, no trivial matter for a small-market team intent on staying under the tax threshold.
[+] EnlargeRoy Hibbert
AP Photo/Michael Conroy
Roy Hibbert's contract suddenly looks a little questionable.
Doolittle: The Pacers will look a little better in a fully realized projection that better models their team defense, but nevertheless they have a number of players who don't have glowing forecasts. George projects to 11.5 WARP, down from his 13.7 mark for the 2013-14 season, because regression in his numbers outstrips his career pattern, but he figures to remain an All-Star performer. It's a similar tale for Stephenson (forecast for 1.4 WARP), who also made a drastic leap. If those players repeat their performances from this season, it pushes the Indiana baseline over 50 wins. However, the Pacers' second unit projects for a combined 0.0 WARP -- zero. That's got to improve. Upgrading the bench seems to be an annual item on the Indiana summer to-do list. Overall, the Pacers are the 10th-oldest team in the league, and they aren't likely to get younger: Indiana's only selection in the June draft is No. 57.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: Indiana must have breathed a sigh of relief upon hearing the new cap and tax projections for 2014-15, expected to be around $63 million and $77 million, respectively. This gives the Pacers roughly $9 million to spend on retaining Stephenson without crossing the tax threshold. I don't see any way Evan Turner can be retained. He was a poor fit offensively, and a defensive sieve, but as a restricted free agent, I wonder what (if any) sign-and-trade value he holds. Luis Scola's contract is only partially guaranteed, and at a $4.9 million cap hit, he's a likely candidate for waivers. The resulting space could be used to try to upgrade the backup power forward position with a more athletic, scoring big.
[+] EnlargeEvan Turner
Brian Spurlock/USA TODAY Sports
Evan Turner should be cut loose before next season.
Doolittle: First, I agree with Kevin Pelton, and would not make a coaching change unless Bird really wants to take the job himself. Vogel has been a huge part of Indiana's rise into contention, excelling as a defensive strategist, motivator and in developing players. That doesn't absolve him for his part in Indiana's slide. After March 4, the Pacers ranked ninth in defensive efficiency and dead last on offense, and did so with a healthy roster -- it's not like they collapsed because of an injury to George. Vogel also deserves blame for his inability to solve Atlanta's 3-point barrage.
At the same time, there were roster issues at play, which falls on Bird. The trade for Evan Turner hurt the Pacers. First, Stephenson's game went into decline after the move, and the loss of Granger hurt the Pacers in the Atlanta series -- he would have allowed Vogel to play small, moving West to center and using Granger at the 4. Even in his diminished state, Granger ranked in the 94th percentile as a defender, according to Synergy Sports Technologies. And it's not like these things should have been a surprise. With a more productive bench that better complements their starting lineup, the Pacers can be a more adaptable postseason team next season.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: As I mentioned earlier, the rising cap and tax give Indiana a lot more breathing room and remove the threat of going into punitive tax territory. That said, breathing room doesn't necessarily mean all ducks will line up, so Stephenson's market value may inflate, at which point overpays to Hibbert, West and George Hill start to look very short-sighted. Additionally, the furor around Vogel's job security only serves to overcomplicate issues.
Doolittle: They need to fix the bench. Luis Scola's deal for $4.8 million next season is partially guaranteed, and I'd let him walk. He's redundant to West, provides little more than empty jump shooting and will be 35. I'd keep the starting lineup intact -- despite everything, it's been the best lineup in the league over the past three years. Retaining Stephenson -- an unrestricted free agent -- may have gotten cheaper with his late-season drop-off, so I'm knocking $1 million off Amin's AAV projection from February. Turner, a restricted free agent? Gone. That leaves Bird around $11 million to fill three second-unit slots while remaining under the tax line the Pacers have vowed to never cross.
IV. An "Ideal" Roster
Ideal 20140-15 roster
Pos Player 2015 Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Roy Hibbert 28 $14.9m 3.7
PG George Hill 29 $8.0m 5.5
SG Lance Stephenson 25 $8.5m 1.4
SF Paul George 25 $13.7m 11.5
PF David West 35 $12.0m 5.0
bC Ian Mahinmi 28 $4.0m -0.8
bPG C.J. Watson 31 $2.1m 1.9
bSG Patrick Mills 27 $5.3m 5.4
bSF Jordan Hamilton 25 $0.9m 1.1
bPF Anthony Tolliver 30 $0.9m 1.6
RES1 Donald Sloan 27 $0.9m -0.4
RES2 Solomon Hill 23 $1.3m -0.2
Est. Payroll: : $72.5 million; Updated Win Range: 51 to 55
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
Doolittle: Indiana used its biannual exception last summer on C.J. Watson, but will have a full midlevel of about $5.3 million available. Using that and adding a couple of veteran minimum deals keeps Indiana under the tax and leaves some space for in-season moves. With Turner gone, Stephenson can return to his role as the primary playmaker for the second unit, but I feel like Indiana desperately needs a true point guard on that group who can create his own shot, and drive and kick. Mills is perfect for the job, while Hamilton and Tolliver give him options to kick to. That said, it might be tough for the Pacers to land the latter pair with the minimum, and if it is, they could try to split up the MLE.
Roster Reload: OKC Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder nearly revisited their 2012 postseason series victory over the San Antonio Spurs, but fell just short in a heartbreaking six games in the 2014 Western Conference finals. The team rebounded from a 2-0 deficit with the heroic return of an injured Serge Ibaka while Kevin Durant played like the regular-season MVP and Russell Westbrook successfully bounced back from the first major injury of his career and lived up to his billing as the guy who makes Oklahoma City unstoppable and predictably beatable all at the same time.
Head coach Scott Brooks has had his job security questioned after widespread criticism of an offensive system too simplistic to take full advantage of the talents of two of the top 10 players in the NBA. Nonetheless, this team still looks like a perennial contender that could be even better with a couple of subtractions, rather than additions.
2014-15 STATUS QUO BASELINE: 59.4 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Durant was marvelous once again this season, and at only 25, it's only a matter of time before he overtakes LeBron James as the best player on the planet. In a season missing his running mate Westbrook for long stretches, Durant elevated his game and brought a consistency that bordered on historic, scoring 25 or more points in 41 consecutive games at one stretch.
Russell Westbrook
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Upon his return from injury, it didn't take long for Westbrook to show he was back in All-Star form.
Westbrook was no slouch himself, completing a full recovery from multiple knee surgeries and appearing no worse for wear, regaining his quickness and explosiveness as well as his fire and desire. His decision-making is as questionable as ever, particularly late in games, but also at 25, he's got a long career of physically overmatching his opponent ahead of him. Serge Ibaka has grown as a more savvy defender, no longer biting on the slightest upfakes or getting caught ball-watching and losing track of his man, even though his improvements have led to drops in his box score stats. He's also continued to expand his range out to becoming a very reliable 3-point threat. Outside those big three, the Thunder got good development, progression and contributions from young bench players like Reggie Jackson, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones III and even rookie Andre Roberson.
Doolittle: No team can match the star trio of Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka, who combined for 40.9 WARP in 2013-14. That means OKC would have a 50-plus win baseline even if every other player on the roster was replacement level. Unfortunately, that was very nearly the case, as outside of the big three, the rest of the Thunder added just three wins. ATH is way too hard on Jackson, but beyond him, the supporting cast is very young, which is why Caron Butler was brought on late in the season. All of Oklahoma City's role players are either past their prime, or haven't reached it. It's kind of an awkward mix, but the collective youth of players like Jones, Jackson, Steven Adams and Lamb offers hope that the Thunder can reload via player development.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: If ever there were a team that would benefit from addition by subtraction, it's the Thunder. Brooks' insistence to rely on vets, Derek Fisher and Kendrick Perkins, whose reputations outweighed their production played a large part in their demise. Oklahoma City would benefit greatly from diverting minutes from them to Jackson (who is eligible for a rookie extension this fall), Lamb and Adams, who came along nicely as a backup center.
Tim Duncan
Richard Rowe/NBAE via Getty Images
The Thunder would be wise to use their amnesty clause on Kendrick Perkins.
Thabo Sefolosha is also a free agent, and he's been a pivotal part of their perimeter defense, but regressed as a 3-point shooter in his contract year. That might give the Thunder the opportunity to bring him back at a discounted rate, affording them some cash to acquire another productive backup 4/5. But any discussion about roster changes begins and ends with Perkins: The Thunder either need to bite the bullet and amnesty him, or attach a couple of picks to him and ship him to a team with space (ironically, this is what Oklahoma City used to do to other teams: squeeze first-round picks in return for accepting vets on toxic deals).
Doolittle: With Fisher likely retiring, the Thunder should seek to retain Butler, who fit in well in his new career as a veteran shooting specialist. So you hope to build a bench blending his experience with that of Nick Collison, and hope that Lamb, Jones and Roberson can outperform their combined forecast of about 0.2 WARP. Beyond that, I'm amnestying Perkins for sure, freeing $9.4 million from the OKC cap number and even better getting his minus-3.0 WARP projection off the spreadsheet. Adams will have to drastically lower his 7.5 percent foul rate and 22.5 percent turnover rate to become a starter, but time is on his side. He'll help anchor the second unit along with Jackson, the sixth man.
Sefolosha is a free agent, so the Thunder can upgrade two-fifths of their starting lineup. If they amnesty Perkins, they can do so with a stopgap center and a more dynamic 2-guard, and they'll be able to use a full midlevel exception without entering tax territory -- provided they don't dip below the cap. Chris Kaman could be a cost-efficient option, and Brandon Rush could be a 3-and-defense fit at shooting guard.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: First, as it is for most small-market teams, the concept of amnestying a player (paying him to go away, essentially) is a taboo topic. Is ownership willing to foot the bill? If not, it could prove more costly to find a trade partner for Perkins. Second, the elephant in the room is the Durant-Westbrook dynamic: Would they be better off playing separately? It's hard to justify breaking up two of the best players in a league where multiple stars seem to be the prerequisite for competing. That brings us to Point 3: coaching. Brooks has done a good job developing this roster, but he might have maximized his abilities. A more structured offense might alleviate some of the struggles that Durant and Westbrook experience, especially against sophisticated defenses like Memphis'. Would adding a high-level X's and O's assistant coach suffice? Or do the Thunder need wholesale change in the coaching chair?
Doolittle: Hierarchy is important, and by more clearly establishing that Oklahoma City is Durant's team, not Westbrook's, then perhaps that in itself could get the Thunder to a better place than a first-round exit. It's possible to win a title with two players using more than 30 percent of a team's possessions, but it's rare. The Kobe-Shaq Lakers, the Shaq-Wade Heat and one version of the LeBron-Wade Heat have done it, but that's it. Westbrook's usage rate was 37 percent over the first five games against Memphis. That's one of the highest playoff usage rates in history. Which would be fine, if he weren't playing alongside the best offensive player in the world in Durant.
The Ideal Roster
Elhassan: I've chosen a more conservative route to retooling the Thunder, especially in light of my decision to amnesty Perkins. Although the payroll is extremely low at about $64 million, there's still another $9.4 million in cash going to Perkins' checking account. This still gives Oklahoma City considerable flexibility in terms of spending for wing defenders Rush and Sefolosha, or spending more for a Luol Deng perhaps. Adreian Payne as the 21st overall pick (owed to OKC by Dallas) would be a nice addition as a backup 4/5 who can shoot the ball from distance and rebound as well.
The "Ideal" Roster?
Pos Player 2015 Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Steven Adams 22 $2.2m 0.7
PG Russell Westbrook 26 $15.7m 12.2
SG Thabo Sefolosha 31 $3.5m 1.7
SF Kevin Durant 27 $19.0m 20.6
PF Serge Ibaka 26 $12.4m 9.6
bC Nick Collison 34 $2.2m -0.6
bPG Reggie Jackson 25 $2.2m 2.1
bSG Jeremy Lamb 23 $2.2m 1.3
bSF Brandon Rush 30 $1.1m -1.1
bPF Perry Jones III 24 $1.3m -0.9
RES1 Andre Roberson 23 $1.2m -0.5
RES2 Adriean Payne 23 $1.3m -0.6
Est. Payroll: $64.3 million; Updated Win Range: 59 to 63
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
Head coach Scott Brooks has had his job security questioned after widespread criticism of an offensive system too simplistic to take full advantage of the talents of two of the top 10 players in the NBA. Nonetheless, this team still looks like a perennial contender that could be even better with a couple of subtractions, rather than additions.
2014-15 STATUS QUO BASELINE: 59.4 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Durant was marvelous once again this season, and at only 25, it's only a matter of time before he overtakes LeBron James as the best player on the planet. In a season missing his running mate Westbrook for long stretches, Durant elevated his game and brought a consistency that bordered on historic, scoring 25 or more points in 41 consecutive games at one stretch.
Russell Westbrook
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Upon his return from injury, it didn't take long for Westbrook to show he was back in All-Star form.
Westbrook was no slouch himself, completing a full recovery from multiple knee surgeries and appearing no worse for wear, regaining his quickness and explosiveness as well as his fire and desire. His decision-making is as questionable as ever, particularly late in games, but also at 25, he's got a long career of physically overmatching his opponent ahead of him. Serge Ibaka has grown as a more savvy defender, no longer biting on the slightest upfakes or getting caught ball-watching and losing track of his man, even though his improvements have led to drops in his box score stats. He's also continued to expand his range out to becoming a very reliable 3-point threat. Outside those big three, the Thunder got good development, progression and contributions from young bench players like Reggie Jackson, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones III and even rookie Andre Roberson.
Doolittle: No team can match the star trio of Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka, who combined for 40.9 WARP in 2013-14. That means OKC would have a 50-plus win baseline even if every other player on the roster was replacement level. Unfortunately, that was very nearly the case, as outside of the big three, the rest of the Thunder added just three wins. ATH is way too hard on Jackson, but beyond him, the supporting cast is very young, which is why Caron Butler was brought on late in the season. All of Oklahoma City's role players are either past their prime, or haven't reached it. It's kind of an awkward mix, but the collective youth of players like Jones, Jackson, Steven Adams and Lamb offers hope that the Thunder can reload via player development.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: If ever there were a team that would benefit from addition by subtraction, it's the Thunder. Brooks' insistence to rely on vets, Derek Fisher and Kendrick Perkins, whose reputations outweighed their production played a large part in their demise. Oklahoma City would benefit greatly from diverting minutes from them to Jackson (who is eligible for a rookie extension this fall), Lamb and Adams, who came along nicely as a backup center.
Tim Duncan
Richard Rowe/NBAE via Getty Images
The Thunder would be wise to use their amnesty clause on Kendrick Perkins.
Thabo Sefolosha is also a free agent, and he's been a pivotal part of their perimeter defense, but regressed as a 3-point shooter in his contract year. That might give the Thunder the opportunity to bring him back at a discounted rate, affording them some cash to acquire another productive backup 4/5. But any discussion about roster changes begins and ends with Perkins: The Thunder either need to bite the bullet and amnesty him, or attach a couple of picks to him and ship him to a team with space (ironically, this is what Oklahoma City used to do to other teams: squeeze first-round picks in return for accepting vets on toxic deals).
Doolittle: With Fisher likely retiring, the Thunder should seek to retain Butler, who fit in well in his new career as a veteran shooting specialist. So you hope to build a bench blending his experience with that of Nick Collison, and hope that Lamb, Jones and Roberson can outperform their combined forecast of about 0.2 WARP. Beyond that, I'm amnestying Perkins for sure, freeing $9.4 million from the OKC cap number and even better getting his minus-3.0 WARP projection off the spreadsheet. Adams will have to drastically lower his 7.5 percent foul rate and 22.5 percent turnover rate to become a starter, but time is on his side. He'll help anchor the second unit along with Jackson, the sixth man.
Sefolosha is a free agent, so the Thunder can upgrade two-fifths of their starting lineup. If they amnesty Perkins, they can do so with a stopgap center and a more dynamic 2-guard, and they'll be able to use a full midlevel exception without entering tax territory -- provided they don't dip below the cap. Chris Kaman could be a cost-efficient option, and Brandon Rush could be a 3-and-defense fit at shooting guard.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: First, as it is for most small-market teams, the concept of amnestying a player (paying him to go away, essentially) is a taboo topic. Is ownership willing to foot the bill? If not, it could prove more costly to find a trade partner for Perkins. Second, the elephant in the room is the Durant-Westbrook dynamic: Would they be better off playing separately? It's hard to justify breaking up two of the best players in a league where multiple stars seem to be the prerequisite for competing. That brings us to Point 3: coaching. Brooks has done a good job developing this roster, but he might have maximized his abilities. A more structured offense might alleviate some of the struggles that Durant and Westbrook experience, especially against sophisticated defenses like Memphis'. Would adding a high-level X's and O's assistant coach suffice? Or do the Thunder need wholesale change in the coaching chair?
Doolittle: Hierarchy is important, and by more clearly establishing that Oklahoma City is Durant's team, not Westbrook's, then perhaps that in itself could get the Thunder to a better place than a first-round exit. It's possible to win a title with two players using more than 30 percent of a team's possessions, but it's rare. The Kobe-Shaq Lakers, the Shaq-Wade Heat and one version of the LeBron-Wade Heat have done it, but that's it. Westbrook's usage rate was 37 percent over the first five games against Memphis. That's one of the highest playoff usage rates in history. Which would be fine, if he weren't playing alongside the best offensive player in the world in Durant.
The Ideal Roster
Elhassan: I've chosen a more conservative route to retooling the Thunder, especially in light of my decision to amnesty Perkins. Although the payroll is extremely low at about $64 million, there's still another $9.4 million in cash going to Perkins' checking account. This still gives Oklahoma City considerable flexibility in terms of spending for wing defenders Rush and Sefolosha, or spending more for a Luol Deng perhaps. Adreian Payne as the 21st overall pick (owed to OKC by Dallas) would be a nice addition as a backup 4/5 who can shoot the ball from distance and rebound as well.
The "Ideal" Roster?
Pos Player 2015 Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Steven Adams 22 $2.2m 0.7
PG Russell Westbrook 26 $15.7m 12.2
SG Thabo Sefolosha 31 $3.5m 1.7
SF Kevin Durant 27 $19.0m 20.6
PF Serge Ibaka 26 $12.4m 9.6
bC Nick Collison 34 $2.2m -0.6
bPG Reggie Jackson 25 $2.2m 2.1
bSG Jeremy Lamb 23 $2.2m 1.3
bSF Brandon Rush 30 $1.1m -1.1
bPF Perry Jones III 24 $1.3m -0.9
RES1 Andre Roberson 23 $1.2m -0.5
RES2 Adriean Payne 23 $1.3m -0.6
Est. Payroll: $64.3 million; Updated Win Range: 59 to 63
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
Roster Reload: Miami Heat.
This isn't quite the conversation we expected to be having at this time.
That the two-time champion Miami Heat were beaten by the San Antonio Spurs is no great shock. There were many rational people among us who saw the matchup as too close to call. However, the resounding fashion by which the Spurs dissected and dispatched LeBron James & Co. was shocking. It also calls into question Miami's offseason strategy. Before, it seemed like Pat Riley was primarily tasked with keeping the Big Three together, while again trying to improve the roster at the margins. However, with the Heat no longer the clear-cut best team in the league -- and a cap situation that is entirely flexible -- there is no telling what direction Riley might take.
Already, rumors of a blockbuster signing of Carmelo Anthony have made the rounds, and that was before the Heat had been throttled by San Antonio. It's going to be an interesting summer across the league, but what happens in South Beach will likely set the tone for everybody else.
2014-15 baseline (if all current players returned): 59.0 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets
Elhassan: It seemed like the Miami Heat would dominate the NBA for the next decade when they were assembled in 2010, but we're barely four years later and it's hard not to argue that they are trending downward.
[+] EnlargeChris Bosh
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE/Getty Images
The era of dominance for the Big Three appears to be coming to an end.
While LeBron James is still the best player in basketball, the drop in his athletic explosion was more pronounced this season, and while he'll still be a dominant player for years to come due to his unique combination of size, skill and IQ, it's hard to ask him to go back to a Cleveland-era level of production in which he has to carry a roster of "others." Chris Bosh remains one of the most underrated and underappreciated players in basketball, a highly effective and intelligent defender with a still-evolving offensive skill set. Dwyane Wade is officially firmly in "past his prime" territory; he can be relied upon to be the Wade of Old every so often, but most nights he just looks like Old Wade.
Beyond the Big Three, the roster is decrepit: Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole are both backup guards, Ray Allen has boiled down to strictly a spot-up shooter, Shane Battier has already lined up his post-playing career, Chris Andersen has become a flightless bird. But there's a bright side: The Heat are still one of the best-run franchises in sports, with excellent ownership that is on the same page as management and coaching, making them an attractive destination for players beyond their South Beach zip code.
Doolittle: It's almost a moot point, but of course the Heat would still rate as an elite team on paper if the same roster was brought back. We already know that Battier is retiring, so that won't be possible. The Big Three all put up representative seasons, though Wade's playing time was more carefully managed than ever before. There are so many possible open spots on the roster that Miami's performance could swing wildly in either direction from this early baseline forecast.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: Miami's books are set up to eerily mirror their 2010 cap sheets, with the Big Three all holding early termination options that would allow them to tear up their deals and sign new contracts. If they do, the Heat will have only three players under contract: Cole, Andersen (who holds a player option) and Udonis Haslem (who also holds a player option). This can give the Heat incredible flexibility to seek an upgrade to the roster if the Big Three agree to give bigger discounts than they did in 2010.
[+] EnlargeLeBron James
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Miami's offseason won't really get rolling until LeBron James decides what to do.
That's a lot to ask, for sure, but they need look no further than the team that vanquished them in the Finals as a model for what taking less money can do for keeping the window for championship contention open longer. On the agenda: Adding young, athletic size up front, infusing more shooters (particularly of the "3 and D" variety) and upgrading the point guard position.
Doolittle: It starts with James' decision on whether to opt out, and the eventual terms he's willing to agree to. Then all the dominoes fall one direction or the other based upon that. Wade is likely staying one way or another if for no other reason than his status as the Heat's iconic player. Bosh says he's staying, but it's not hard to imagine that if things break a certain way with James, another situation might look a lot better. Whether it's targeting Melo or agreeing to lower-than-market deals in order to improve the top-to-bottom depth, it's going to be a group decision between the Big Three and Riley. But it all starts with LeBron.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: How much of a salary giveback are the Big Three willing to concede? Are they willing to concede anything at all? It's always tough to ask players to leave money on the table; they have a relatively small window of time to maximize their earnings and make enough to support themselves and their families for the rest of their lives. More importantly, who are the free-agent options that could help this team? There aren't as many transcendent talents that the Heat would be able to afford, even with massive concessions by the Big Three.
Nevertheless, these complaints are the NBA equivalent of #FirstWorldProblems: most teams have to worry about bigger structural issues, such as meddling ownership, incompetent management, unimaginative coaching, toxic cap sheets, depleted pick inventories. The Heat have none of those problems.
Doolittle: The biggest question is whether the status quo is even an option in terms of chasing more championships. Not only is San Antonio's core likely to stay in place for another season, but the West is chock full of teams not far behind the Spurs. And the Heat's singular supremacy in the East can't last forever, especially if the Bulls have a home run of a summer. Miami has a terrific organization in place, and you can expect that whatever questions we raise here, Riley probably has already figured out a likely answer to all of them.
IV. An "Ideal" Roster
Ideal 2014-15 roster
Pos Player Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Chris Bosh 31 $13.8m 7.6
PG Mario Chalmers 29 $2.7m 2.7
SG Vince Carter 38 $0.9m 3.9
SF Carmelo Anthony 31 $13.8m 11.1
PF LeBron James 30 $13.8m 21.1
bC Chris Andersen 37 $0.9m 4.4
bPG Norris Cole 27 $2.0m -3.4
bSG Dwyane Wade 33 $13.8m 6.5
bSF James Jones 35 $0.9m 1.2
bPF Rashard Lewis 36 $0.9m 0.3
RES1 Udonis Haslem 35 $0.9m -1.0
RES2 Shabazz Napier 24 $1.0m -0.7
Est. Payroll: $65.2 million; Updated Win Range: 61 to 65
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment.
Doolittle: Right now, the "what-if" on everybody's mind is the Melo-to-the-Heat scenario. Amin already crunched the numbers financially, so I decided to go with that as the starting point for a new Big Four era. We'll go with Amin's "Even Steven" option, which divvies up Miami's possible cap space evenly among the four stars. Obviously, this would take more than a little collusion on the part of the players involved, but we're more interested in how it translates on the court right now, roughly speaking.
With the Big Four in place, they'd join returnee Cole, who is under contract for next season. I've also assumed Miami keeps its first-round pick, and I have them taking Chad Ford's anticipated target, Connecticut's Shabazz Napier. Basically everything else on the season-ending Miami roster gets renounced. I can see James Jones, Rashard Lewis and Udonis Haslem -- who as Amin pointed out would have to agree to decline his player option for 2014-15 -- coming back for the veteran's minimum. I have Andersen coming back again for the minimum, but that could be a stretch. He's worth more. I don't see the same happening for Chalmers or Allen.
The final three rotation spots would have be filled with the room exception -- which I've given to Chalmers because he'll probably be the best free-agent option to fill the point guard slot -- and one more minimum salaried free agent. The latter player could be a starter, as it would not surprise me to see Wade shifted into a Manu Ginobili-like super-sub role. If Vince Carter wants to ring chase, tag-teaming with Wade might be a great option for him.
All in all, the baseline looks great, though the real world results would be less, and offer a lot of downside when you consider defensive shortcomings and the age of the foundation players. The final payroll is well under the tax line, which is an inevitable by-product of putting the new roster together with cap space. However going forward, beginning in 2015, Miami would have the full mid-level exception available for further roster improvements. I have my concerns about how Anthony would fit as a supporting player, though my guess is he would probably lead Miami in scoring, while James' assist total skyrockets. Would that translate to wins? It'd be a fascinating experiment. On the other hand, defense would be a much bigger problem than what is represented here. In any event, with so many moving parts, Miami's reload is as much an exercise in fantasy as any team in the league.
That the two-time champion Miami Heat were beaten by the San Antonio Spurs is no great shock. There were many rational people among us who saw the matchup as too close to call. However, the resounding fashion by which the Spurs dissected and dispatched LeBron James & Co. was shocking. It also calls into question Miami's offseason strategy. Before, it seemed like Pat Riley was primarily tasked with keeping the Big Three together, while again trying to improve the roster at the margins. However, with the Heat no longer the clear-cut best team in the league -- and a cap situation that is entirely flexible -- there is no telling what direction Riley might take.
Already, rumors of a blockbuster signing of Carmelo Anthony have made the rounds, and that was before the Heat had been throttled by San Antonio. It's going to be an interesting summer across the league, but what happens in South Beach will likely set the tone for everybody else.
2014-15 baseline (if all current players returned): 59.0 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets
Elhassan: It seemed like the Miami Heat would dominate the NBA for the next decade when they were assembled in 2010, but we're barely four years later and it's hard not to argue that they are trending downward.
[+] EnlargeChris Bosh
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE/Getty Images
The era of dominance for the Big Three appears to be coming to an end.
While LeBron James is still the best player in basketball, the drop in his athletic explosion was more pronounced this season, and while he'll still be a dominant player for years to come due to his unique combination of size, skill and IQ, it's hard to ask him to go back to a Cleveland-era level of production in which he has to carry a roster of "others." Chris Bosh remains one of the most underrated and underappreciated players in basketball, a highly effective and intelligent defender with a still-evolving offensive skill set. Dwyane Wade is officially firmly in "past his prime" territory; he can be relied upon to be the Wade of Old every so often, but most nights he just looks like Old Wade.
Beyond the Big Three, the roster is decrepit: Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole are both backup guards, Ray Allen has boiled down to strictly a spot-up shooter, Shane Battier has already lined up his post-playing career, Chris Andersen has become a flightless bird. But there's a bright side: The Heat are still one of the best-run franchises in sports, with excellent ownership that is on the same page as management and coaching, making them an attractive destination for players beyond their South Beach zip code.
Doolittle: It's almost a moot point, but of course the Heat would still rate as an elite team on paper if the same roster was brought back. We already know that Battier is retiring, so that won't be possible. The Big Three all put up representative seasons, though Wade's playing time was more carefully managed than ever before. There are so many possible open spots on the roster that Miami's performance could swing wildly in either direction from this early baseline forecast.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: Miami's books are set up to eerily mirror their 2010 cap sheets, with the Big Three all holding early termination options that would allow them to tear up their deals and sign new contracts. If they do, the Heat will have only three players under contract: Cole, Andersen (who holds a player option) and Udonis Haslem (who also holds a player option). This can give the Heat incredible flexibility to seek an upgrade to the roster if the Big Three agree to give bigger discounts than they did in 2010.
[+] EnlargeLeBron James
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Miami's offseason won't really get rolling until LeBron James decides what to do.
That's a lot to ask, for sure, but they need look no further than the team that vanquished them in the Finals as a model for what taking less money can do for keeping the window for championship contention open longer. On the agenda: Adding young, athletic size up front, infusing more shooters (particularly of the "3 and D" variety) and upgrading the point guard position.
Doolittle: It starts with James' decision on whether to opt out, and the eventual terms he's willing to agree to. Then all the dominoes fall one direction or the other based upon that. Wade is likely staying one way or another if for no other reason than his status as the Heat's iconic player. Bosh says he's staying, but it's not hard to imagine that if things break a certain way with James, another situation might look a lot better. Whether it's targeting Melo or agreeing to lower-than-market deals in order to improve the top-to-bottom depth, it's going to be a group decision between the Big Three and Riley. But it all starts with LeBron.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: How much of a salary giveback are the Big Three willing to concede? Are they willing to concede anything at all? It's always tough to ask players to leave money on the table; they have a relatively small window of time to maximize their earnings and make enough to support themselves and their families for the rest of their lives. More importantly, who are the free-agent options that could help this team? There aren't as many transcendent talents that the Heat would be able to afford, even with massive concessions by the Big Three.
Nevertheless, these complaints are the NBA equivalent of #FirstWorldProblems: most teams have to worry about bigger structural issues, such as meddling ownership, incompetent management, unimaginative coaching, toxic cap sheets, depleted pick inventories. The Heat have none of those problems.
Doolittle: The biggest question is whether the status quo is even an option in terms of chasing more championships. Not only is San Antonio's core likely to stay in place for another season, but the West is chock full of teams not far behind the Spurs. And the Heat's singular supremacy in the East can't last forever, especially if the Bulls have a home run of a summer. Miami has a terrific organization in place, and you can expect that whatever questions we raise here, Riley probably has already figured out a likely answer to all of them.
IV. An "Ideal" Roster
Ideal 2014-15 roster
Pos Player Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Chris Bosh 31 $13.8m 7.6
PG Mario Chalmers 29 $2.7m 2.7
SG Vince Carter 38 $0.9m 3.9
SF Carmelo Anthony 31 $13.8m 11.1
PF LeBron James 30 $13.8m 21.1
bC Chris Andersen 37 $0.9m 4.4
bPG Norris Cole 27 $2.0m -3.4
bSG Dwyane Wade 33 $13.8m 6.5
bSF James Jones 35 $0.9m 1.2
bPF Rashard Lewis 36 $0.9m 0.3
RES1 Udonis Haslem 35 $0.9m -1.0
RES2 Shabazz Napier 24 $1.0m -0.7
Est. Payroll: $65.2 million; Updated Win Range: 61 to 65
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment.
Doolittle: Right now, the "what-if" on everybody's mind is the Melo-to-the-Heat scenario. Amin already crunched the numbers financially, so I decided to go with that as the starting point for a new Big Four era. We'll go with Amin's "Even Steven" option, which divvies up Miami's possible cap space evenly among the four stars. Obviously, this would take more than a little collusion on the part of the players involved, but we're more interested in how it translates on the court right now, roughly speaking.
With the Big Four in place, they'd join returnee Cole, who is under contract for next season. I've also assumed Miami keeps its first-round pick, and I have them taking Chad Ford's anticipated target, Connecticut's Shabazz Napier. Basically everything else on the season-ending Miami roster gets renounced. I can see James Jones, Rashard Lewis and Udonis Haslem -- who as Amin pointed out would have to agree to decline his player option for 2014-15 -- coming back for the veteran's minimum. I have Andersen coming back again for the minimum, but that could be a stretch. He's worth more. I don't see the same happening for Chalmers or Allen.
The final three rotation spots would have be filled with the room exception -- which I've given to Chalmers because he'll probably be the best free-agent option to fill the point guard slot -- and one more minimum salaried free agent. The latter player could be a starter, as it would not surprise me to see Wade shifted into a Manu Ginobili-like super-sub role. If Vince Carter wants to ring chase, tag-teaming with Wade might be a great option for him.
All in all, the baseline looks great, though the real world results would be less, and offer a lot of downside when you consider defensive shortcomings and the age of the foundation players. The final payroll is well under the tax line, which is an inevitable by-product of putting the new roster together with cap space. However going forward, beginning in 2015, Miami would have the full mid-level exception available for further roster improvements. I have my concerns about how Anthony would fit as a supporting player, though my guess is he would probably lead Miami in scoring, while James' assist total skyrockets. Would that translate to wins? It'd be a fascinating experiment. On the other hand, defense would be a much bigger problem than what is represented here. In any event, with so many moving parts, Miami's reload is as much an exercise in fantasy as any team in the league.
- Sep 5, 2010
- 94,260
- 131,780
If McHale falters to start the season, then Hollins takes over...
- Jun 24, 2005
- 17,331
- 3,634
There's two vacancies: Lakers and Cavaliers. In all seriousness, is he a leading candidate for either? Genuine question.
Also, Kevin McHale might get axed one of these days
I could see Lionel thinking this would be the best opportunity for him to slowly move into the HC job if McHale fails next year. Its funny because people thought Memphis was crazy for letting Hollins go, but he's still struggling to get a coaching gig. He's been on interviews for several teams and have yet to be given a serious offer.
I appreciate Hollins for everything he did, but he's a rare breed when it comes to his personality and how he handles his players. I think adding him to the Rockets would be good for them and he possibly may help cut out a lot of the silliness from guys like Harden and Dwight. I can see him preaching discipline to those guys and having them more focus. Allow him to solely work on the defensive side and don't let him TOUCH the offensive playbook.
There's no coincidence that guys like Tony Allen and Zach Randolph became much more disciplined off the court as individuals when Hollins coached them. Their maturity has a lot to do with Lionel. I can see him having a similar effect on guys like Dwight on and off the court.
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do work son
Banned
- May 22, 2010
- 17,118
- 5,186
Yo man, they want to rebuild the Heat by giving them Melo, Vince Carter, and Shabazz Napier?
Well that's nice and easy. Damn.
It has us at 62 wins by trading Asik for millsap and getting Mitch mcgary
antidope
Supporter
- Jan 2, 2012
- 63,818
- 68,696
Reading these roster reload articles that @Proshares posted, got down to the Hawks one, and started reading it against my better judgement. How feasible is that Parsons/Asik trade?
do work son
Banned
- May 22, 2010
- 17,118
- 5,186
Everything i'm hearing points to keeping Parsons. Only declined his option so they can pursue a 3rd superstar first, then match any offer he gets because we have his Bird rights
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- Sep 21, 2008
- 49,029
- 61,330
Would love to see Bosh go to Dallas and help Dirk make another run at a title.
- Feb 6, 2011
- 40,141
- 11,080
IN
shoeking2101
Banned
- Sep 1, 2007
- 19,728
- 2,456
Where Melo ends up will be intriguing as hell. No way I can see him staying in NY.
What the Heat will look like next year is also of high intrigue as well.
What the Heat will look like next year is also of high intrigue as well.
shoeking2101
Banned
- Sep 1, 2007
- 19,728
- 2,456
Also am interested in how the Lakers will fill out their roster for the upcoming year. Obviously, it won't be of championship quality in all likelihood, but I legit have no idea how it'll look
antidope
Supporter
- Jan 2, 2012
- 63,818
- 68,696
I just stumbled upon the Vegas odds and saw that the Spurs werent at the top. Theyre not even second theyre third.
Miami is first, and I mean I can see an argument but the team is in a whirlwind of uncertainty at this point. Only one thing is close to being a certainty IMO and its that D Wade is taking that money.
Then its the Thunder which I flat out dont agree with, and then its the Spurs.
If I was a betting man I tell you................................
Right now I think Melo stays, but that opinion could change by the hour.
Miami is first, and I mean I can see an argument but the team is in a whirlwind of uncertainty at this point. Only one thing is close to being a certainty IMO and its that D Wade is taking that money.
Then its the Thunder which I flat out dont agree with, and then its the Spurs.
If I was a betting man I tell you................................
Right now I think Melo stays, but that opinion could change by the hour.
- Jul 13, 2005
- 35,474
- 27,108
Exciting offseason with one the best drafts ever. Cant wait 
- Feb 28, 2003
- 9,503
- 419
p4l
MVP
Supporter
- Feb 28, 2008
- 83,182
- 86,053
LeBron to the Lakers, Melo to the Bulls, Bosh to the Rockets, Love to the Celtics/Suns, NT S&T implodes for the majority of the summer.
Let the games Begin!
Let the games Begin!
- Jun 1, 2008
- 38,406
- 7,519
IN.
everysingletime
formerly amel223
- Apr 4, 2006
- 42,963
- 15,346
That'd be interesting.
- Mar 2, 2011
- 30,498
- 5,958
- May 23, 2005
- 63,609
- 50,740
Last edited:
- Jan 31, 2012
- 7,071
- 782
East becomes so bad, Silver is forced to abolish conferences
- Jul 13, 2005
- 35,474
- 27,108
You'll see
- Aug 9, 2012
- 17,782
- 6,411
What about Wade? If everyone leaves the Heat not keeping him
- Status
