D.R.A.F.T. Initiative: Isiah's a genius
By Alvin Chang
Special to Insider
For all the stats and advanced scouting metrics gathered on prospects these days, Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo maintains there's no real science to the process. "At the end of the day, you also have to trust your gut," he says.
And that puts him in some strange company with a man who says this: "[My draft strategy] came from growing up on the playgrounds and having to pick players -- and not wanting to lose."
That man? None other than Isiah Thomas, he of the much-maligned track record as an NBA executive. But according to the D.R.A.F.T. Initiative's study, Colangelo and Thomas top the list of the best drafters from the past 20 years.
Seriously.
We figured out who was calling the shots for every team on draft day over the past 20 years and then, using John Hollinger's estimated wins added (EWA) stat, tracked how their picks performed in comparison to the expected value of their draft slot (net EWA). To be eligible, a GM had to have picked at least 10 players during the 20-year time period, leaving 46 eligible candidates to rank. Here's how the best and worst shook out:
THE TOP FIVE
1. Bryan Colangelo
Suns, 1995-2005; Raptors, 2006-current
Net EWA: 1.68
Colangelo's midround success is astounding: Steve Nash (1996, 15th pick, +7.72 net EWA), Michael Finley (1995, 21st, +5.15), Shawn Marion (1999, 9th, +9.76) and Amar'e Stoudemire (2002, 9th, +8.8. He also found Stephen Jackson (+2.7
2. Isiah Thomas
Raptors, 1995-97; Knicks, 2004-07
Net EWA: 1.52
Thomas' early picks seemed odd -- fans booed Damon Stoudamire, his first-ever choice. But Stoudamire's net EWA is 0.78 wins higher than expected for the seventh pick, and that's common of Thomas' players. Trevor Ariza (43rd, 2004), Nate Robinson (21st, 2005) and David Lee (30th, 2005) have all exceeded their expected EWA numbers.
Thomas has a name for the attributes he values in prospects: I.C.E. (Intensity, concentration, energy). He picked Tracy McGrady, whose career EWA is 10.5 wins better than the typical No. 9 pick, because he had a quiet intensity "like a lava flow." And he justifies grabbing Lee and Marcus Camby (No. 2, 1996) because, he says, "On the playground, I always picked the rebounder first, because when you play outside, there are a lot of misses, and you want someone who can track it."
Whatever works.
3. Jim Paxson
Cavaliers, 1999-2004
Net EWA: 1.20
Paxson obviously gets a huge boost from LeBron James, whose net EWA is +16.34. But he also found Carlos Boozer (+9.1) in the second round in 2002. Those picks more than make up for duds like Dajuan Wagner (2002, No. 6, -4.37) and DeSagana Diop (2001, No. 8, -3.97).
4. Garry St. Jean
Warriors, 1998-2003
Net EWA: 1.15
In addition to Antawn Jamison (1998, No. 4, +5.21), St. Jean should be known for 2001, when he grabbed Jason Richardson (5th, +3.25), Troy Murphy (14th, +2.25) and Gilbert Arenas (30th, +8.92). That's some haul.
5. Bob Whitsitt
Sonics, 1986-93; Trail Blazers, 1994-2002
Net EWA: 0.73
In 1989, Whitsitt drafted a 19-year-old with no college experience after convincing his owner that the kid could be a combination of Charles Barkley and Karl Malone. And that's how Shawn Kemp (5.85 net EWA) ended up as the No. 17 pick in the 1989 draft, long before the prep-to-pro route was en vogue. That willingness to gamble on high-ceiling prospects also brought him Gary Payton (1990, 2nd, +5.91), Jermaine O'Neal (1996, 17th, +4.39) and Zach Randolph (2001, 19th, +6.05).
THE BOTTOM FIVE
5. Pete Bab****
Nuggets, 1985-89; Hawks, 1990-2003
Net EWA: -0.73
You could look at various underperformers and quickly understand how Bab**** ended up in this spot: Todd Lichti (1989, 15th, -2.13); Rumeal Robinson (1990, 10th, -2.71); Anthony Avent (1991, 15th, -2.87); Adam Keefe (1992, 10th, -2.43); and DerMarr Johnson (2000, 6th, -4.22). But maybe it's just easier to say that he really only made one good pick -- Jason Terry (1999, 10th, +6.17).
4. John Nash
76ers, 1986-89; Bullets, 1990-95; Nets, 1996-99; Trail Blazers, 2003-05
Net EWA: -0.76
Other than Rasheed Wallace (1995, 4th, +2.53), about all Nash can brag about is Gheorghe Muresan (+0.70). The 7-foot-7 center was one of only nine of Nash's 35 picks to meet or exceed draft-slot expectations. The busts include Calbert Cheaney, Sebastian Telfair and Sharone Wright.
3. Jack McCloskey
Pistons, 1979-91; Timberwolves, 1992-94
Net EWA: -0.83
In the 20 years that comprised our study, Tim Burroughs (1992, 51st, +0.20) was his best draft pick. Who? Exactly. McCloskey bombed in the top five, grabbing Christian Laettner (1992, 3rd, -0.54), Isaiah Rider (1993, 5th, -2.31) and Donyell Marshall (1994, 4th, -0.22) as building blocks for the expansion Wolves.
2. Rod Thorn
Nets, 2000-2007
Net EWA -0.94
Unfortunately for Thorn, he doesn't get credit for picking Michael Jordan -- our study starts in 1989, which means his stint in Chicago from 1978-85 doesn't count. And since then, he's made plenty of mistakes. Even if you don't want to blame him for taking forward Kenyon Martin (-2.9
1. Elgin Baylor
Clippers, 1986-2008
Net EWA -1.18
Come on, was there really any doubt about this one? Baylor made 43 picks over the length of the study and only nine met or exceeded expectations. More often, as we detailed already, he has drafted the likes of Shaun Livingston (2004, 4th, -4.71), Melvin Ely (2002, 12th, -2.90), Darius Miles (2000, 3rd, -3.69), Lorenzen Wright (1996, 7th, -2.13), Terry Dehere (1993, 13th, -2.19), Bo Kimble (1990, 8th, -3.7
Oh, and Baylor also made the worst pick of the past 20 years, Michael Olowokandi (1998, 1st, -7.99). Conveniently, the Clippers have the top choice in this year's draft. Let's see what happens without Baylor in the war room.
Alvin Chang is a contributing writer for ESPN Insider.
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