- Joined Sep 4, 2006
The CDC estimate of IFR is confusing because a) it doesn't match all the data that is out there, b) nobody knows how they came up with the estimate. The best estimates I've seen with good data is 0.5-1.5% for CFR or 0.4-0.7% for IFR. With a young, healthy population and plenty of health care, I'm sure we could find cases where it is 0.26% (Singapore is purportedly even lower). Another way to get there is if the outbreak occurs primarily among college students and young adults.
Why Does the CDC Think the COVID-19 Fatality Rate Is So Low, and Why Won’t It Tell Anyone? | National ReviewAn explanation would be helpful.www.nationalreview.com
As for the Fauci quote, he may be correct. Many people are mentally prepared for a year of social distancing. We are much more careful and aware than we were in March. Assuming we don't have large gatherings in the fall and we minimize travel, work from home, etc., then the fall may not be a disaster.
- "We often talk about the possibility of a second wave, or of an outbreak when you reopen. We don't have to accept that as an inevitability."
He is not only saying the fall may not be a disaster, he is going farther than that saying
there may not be a "second wave" at all.