OFFICIAL Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Thread - DK,FD vol. Addictive Personalities Beware

Discussion in 'Sports & Training' started by pdino, Feb 4, 2015.

  1. pdino

    pdino

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    Daily fantasy sports is an industry that is quickly growing that allows you to compete against other people with a one day fantasy team for money. Projected 450,000,000$ in entry fees this year.
     
    One day fantasy sports leagues that are based in the U.S. and are completely legal, the "big two":
    Fanduel-https://www.fanduel.com/
    Draftkings-https://www.draftkings.com/
     
    Each entrant is allotted the same salary to use on picking a team of their choosing to face other teams.
     
    Can play for 1$-1000$+ games.

    Game types:

    Head to head- Face off 1 versus 1

    50/50-A league type in which the top half of all entrants get paid and the bottom half lose their entry fee.  Pool of players from 20-100+ where the top 50% win (ex. 1$ game, win 1.80$ if in top 50%)

    double-up- Similar concept, instead the entrant doubles their money if they win (Ex 1$ game, double up to 2$ total)

    Tournaments- can be multiple entry, or single entry. Tiered payouts to top 10%.

    Multiplier-A league in which you can multiply your entry fee by a certain factor based on the payouts; in a 5x multiplier, for example, the winners get paid out five times their entry fee. The higher the multiplier, the more high-risk/high-reward the league.

    Commonly used Abbreviations/definitions:

    Cash game- Refers to 50/50s, double-ups

    Bankroll- The amount of money you’re willing to invest in daily fantasy sports

    Ceiling- A player, team, or lineup’s upside; the maximum number of points they could score

    Rake-The fee charged by the daily fantasy sites to play in a league; typically around 10 percent of the total buy-ins

    Exposure- The amount of money invested in a player; if you have a lot of exposure to a particular player, it means you have a relatively high percentage of your bankroll placed on him.

    Fade-To avoid a particular player or game, i.e. “I’m fading the Patriots game because there are 30 MPH winds.”

    Floor-A player, team, or lineup’s downside; the minimum number of points they could score

    Freeroll-A daily fantasy league that’s free to enter but has cash prizes

    GPP-“Guaranteed Prize Pool”; a league in which the prize is guaranteed, regardless of the number of entrants

    Hedge-Actions taken to reduce the overall risk of your lineups; if you’re excessively bullish on a particular lineup, for example, you would hedge by creating other lineups without any of the same players, even if it’s sub-optimal. When you hedge, you’re reducing risk at the cost of also reducing upside.

    Overlay-When a daily fantasy site loses money on a GPP; if $20,000 is guaranteed but there are only $18,000 worth of entrants, the overlay is $2,000.

    Qualifier-A league in which the winners don’t receive cash, but rather win a “ticket” into another league; a 10-team qualifier with an $11 buy-in might give away one ticket into a larger league with a $100 buy-in, for example; in opposition to cash games

    Stack/stacking-To pair multiple players from the same professional team in an effort to increase upside

    Here's a noob guide to guide your research, a little bit dated now, but concepts apply:

    Fanduel Strategy Guide for Noobs:

    This is for 50-50s because that's what I play and I figure I can get a better lineup then half the guys out there at least. 

    1. Gotta know the rules: Point = 1pt, Rebound = 1.2pts, Assist = 1.5pts, Block = 2pts, Steal = 2pts, Turnover = -1pt

    As you can see Assists are worth 1.5pts while boards are worth 1.2. That means Wall going for 10 assists vs Zbo going for 10 boards nets you 15pts vs 12pts. Blocks and steals are worth 2 points, which is big. Sacramento and Orlando get their shots blocked the most. If you got Hibbert or Ibaka vs Orlando, that might be a great idea.

    -Differs from draftkings in that 3 pointers, Double doubles, Triple Dubs don't count as points in fanduel. You're worrying about pure scoring, 3 pointers mean nothing. Points are points.

    2. Position match-up: (these guys let up the most objectively)

    PG: Phi, Ind, Cha, Bulls, Orl, Bos

    SG: Phi, Ind, Nets, Den

    SF: Phi, Det, Orl, GSW, Bos, Minn

    PF: Det, Bos, Cle, Utah, Den, Mil

    C: Orl, LAL, Minn, Pho, Atl

    You could probably win just by picking these positions against these teams, but there's other things to consider.

    3. The team Match-up: Draft kings adjusts for match up, so when Washington plays Philadelphia all the Washington guys are more expensive for that week. Fanduel does not do this. You have to abuse the matchups. Vegas Over/Under: Don’t underestimate Las Vegas; they really know what they are doing. Check the spreads and over/under for the day. The over/under is very helpful and they're usually right. High scoring means lots of shooting – lots of shooting means more potential for assists and more potential for rebounds. Every player gets a boost when the over/under is high. West coast games in general are faster paced.

    4. Value - about 5x the FD price. Guy is priced at 4000$ x 5 = 20 Points you need to reach value. You pick a superstar at 10,000$ (x5), you want to try to get him to hit 50 FD points or the pick didn't hit value.

    5. Foul trouble- If you got Drummond against Cousins, he's a lot more likely to get in foul trouble and kill your fantasy outlook because he's riding the pine. 

    6. Injuries - You have to follow the injuries. Who's injured and who's playing/not playing also determines the minutes of everyone. The other night Favors didn't play with illness, Kanter got 30+ minutes and went off.

    7. Picking your roster-  Often times my strategy is to grab as many players as I can from one team or game to "guarantee" my points. Ex. I pick Jrue Holiday, Tyreke, Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson for tomorrow. Unless Austin rivers goes for 50, you're going to be guaranteed your 120+ points from these 4 picks (you max out at 4 picks per team). You can double up with this strategy and pick 2 teams, and/or focus on one fast-paced game.

    8. Handcuff -  Lakers are worst vs Centers so you go Marc Gasol against Lake show. Zbo goes 30/20 and Marc goes for 10/8. Sometimes a guy has an off night, pick both bigs and handcuff the tandem to guarantee results.

    9. "Safe" pick- Any guy can go off any night. I go for guys who NEED to produce. Derozan is the second leading scorer on the Raptors, went down w/ injury. The Raps NEED Lowry to score 20 at least, every single night. With Dwight out, Harden is put in a similar position. While Kyrie/Love/Bron are much more volatile for me, they have each other to rely on to go off. Pick guys who will give you boards/ast/stl/blk so you're not strictly relying on a good shooting performance.

    10. Finding a value pick- If you can't find good value picks to play when checking initially there's no other way around it, got to research who's not playing or injured. Any fantasy basketball site (rotoworld, rotowire, fantasy alarm) will give you updated information on injured players. Check about half hour before the games start and you should have a good idea of who you can plug in for value. 

    Podcasts:

    1. Rotogrinders daily fantasy fix- Daily info on the slates that day from top rotogrinders

    2. Fantasy Insiders daily fantasy Podcast - Daily analysis of the slates

    Rotowire Fantasy basketball - almost daily fantasy basketball review of injuries/box scores from that day. About 15 minutes dedicated to their draftkings  picks near the end.

    Red Rock fantasy Basketball podcast- Everyday basketball review of injuries/box scores from that day. About 20 minutes (depending on slate) dedicated to fanduel  picks.

    Basketball Monster fantasy Basketball podcast- Deep stats (usage) and analysis of fantasy basketball. Great info that's very applicable

    Eye on basketball podcast/Razz Ball- Mostly basketball talk, briefly run through their l/us

    Research sites:

    Rotogrinders- Defense vs position, algorithims, daily shows (1 hour+ before lineups lock), articles, tons of information here. https://rotogrinders.com/

    Rotowire- defense vs position, daily "value report", lineup optimizer. http://www.rotowire.com/daily/nba/value-report.htm

    Nbawowy.com- Find both widely used and unique statistics for nba players when their teammates are on or off the court.

    Basketball Monster- heard this site has the best projections for players by FAR and is a hidden gem. 50$ for subscription however. There is an incentive for DK, deposit 20$, get free subscription, found here: https://basketballmonster.com/draftkings.aspx

    Injuries can be crucial, if you want the information first, it's a good idea to subscribe or check out rotowire/rotoworld frequently.

    Here's a list of DFS guys you can follow on twitter, can also add the beat writers for each team to be the first to know about injuries:

    Strategy sites:

    Rotoworld Basketball ‏ @Rotoworld_BK

    Rotogrinders [email protected]

    The Fake Basketball ‏ @FakeBasketball

    NBA.com/Stats ‏ @nbastats

    numberFire ‏ @numberFire

    Fantasy Insiders ‏ @InsidersDFS

    LuDawgs.com ‏ @LuDawgs

    DFSReport.com @DFSReport

    Individuals

    Drew Dinkmeyer ‏ @DrewDinkmeyer

    Michael Gallagher ‏ @MikeSGallagher

    Steve Alexander ‏ @docktora

    Derek ‏ @RG_Notorious

    Al Smizzle ‏ @AlZeidenfeld

    Adam Levitan ‏ @adamlevitan

    Peter Jennings ‏ @CSURAM88

    Scott Redick ‏ @Sports_25toLife

    David Kitchen ‏ @Socrdave

    Davis Mattek ‏ @DavisMattek

    TommyG ‏ @TommygDFS

    STL ‏ @stlcardinals84

    Haralabos Voulgaris ‏ @haralabob
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2015
    CHAOSE57, hsalem, djcg and 11 others like this.
  2. rook

    rook

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    🙏
     
  3. CHAOSE57

    CHAOSE57

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    [​IMG]
     
  4. steebie j

    steebie j

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    Pretty much laid out everything :smokin
     
  5. hsalem

    hsalem

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    Goddamn. Good work
     
  6. awwsome

    awwsome

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    :pimp: :pimp: :pimp:
     
  7. Ruck13

    Ruck13 formerly killa kyleon

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    Good stuff..those sites on lineups are legit.. I was going in blind picking lineups but used some advise on a lineup last night and had my first win over $100..good luck to all.
     
  8. stick

    stick

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    Good work :nthat:.
     
  9. proshares

    proshares

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    Great stuff as usual man.

    :pimp:
     
  10. flossb15

    flossb15

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    Great thread Pdino!!
     
  11. esydc

    esydc

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    Preliminary lineup is this one but as usual I wait until the 6pm hour to really finalize it

    Bayless
    Ellis
    Kahwi
    P.Gasol
    Whiteside
    Smart
    Nowitzki
    Sacre
     
  12. steebie j

    steebie j

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    Hope Durant is out...
     
  13. awwsome

    awwsome

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    Tarik Black. :pimp:
     
  14. luong1209

    luong1209

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    Thank you!



    So KD out again, who's running with Westbrook? I have to have Curry as my other PG. I know Augustin is playing well, but I have my doubts.







    Edit: Russ at 11k, I'm just gonna stick with Augustin.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2015
  15. steebie j

    steebie j

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    Westbrook could be a 100k I'm still getting him in all line ups

    Kenyon Martin, Zaza and Irsan all out. Henson :smokin
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2015
  16. stick

    stick

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    :pimp: @ all of this.
     
  17. hsalem

    hsalem

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    confirmed?
     
  18. luong1209

    luong1209

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    Confident even with AD protecting the rim?



    I was thinking of rolling with Gasol + Augustin over Russ + Bosh.
     
  19. hsalem

    hsalem

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    Knight active?