One of the league's most proactive teams during the regular season was the Memphis Grizzlies, who traded leading scorer Rudy Gay to the Toronto Raptors at the end of January. In doing so, Memphis shook up a roster that seemed on the fringe of the championship derby, a decision that directed a lot of flak at the team's new decision-makers.
The results were glowingly positive for the denizens of Beale Street, but after the Grizzlies coughed and sputtered their way through a Game 1 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, skeptics might wonder if Gay's absence is finally being felt. TNT play-by-play announcer Ian Eagle floated just that notion during the Oklahoma City-Houston broadcast Sunday night. Ultimately, Memphis' problem Saturday was indeed personnel related. The persons in question, however, were the men with whistles, not the subjects of any three-month-old transactions.
Many were surprised that Memphis was stronger after the Gay deal, but the Grizzlies' point differential improved from plus-3.5 before the trade to plus-5.0 after it. All of that uptick came on the offensive end. Despite the subtraction of Memphis' leading scorer and biggest user of possessions, its reformed offense became more efficient by 3.5 points per 100 possessions.
After the trade, Memphis' effective field goal percentage improved by 2.1 percent. Its foul-drawing rate jumped by over 3 percent, and turnovers fell by 1.4 percent. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies' vaunted offensive rebounding fell off by 3.5 percent, and their rate of assisted baskets rose by 3.4 percent. All of this suggests a significant shift of offensive emphasis. Memphis was getting a different distribution of shots, and getting those looks with different plays.
The perception is that Memphis simply started dumping the ball into Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol more often to become even more paint oriented. According to NBA.com/stats, the Grizzlies got shots in the paint 2.4 percent less often after the Gay trade. Those attempts were replaced by Tayshaun Prince's midrange looks and a few more of those ever-coveted corner 3s. While Memphis didn't get more overall shots in the paint, it was more efficient down low, with its field-goal percentage in the restricted area leaping by 4.2 percent.
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After Rudy Gay (22) was traded, Jerryd Bayless stepped up for Memphis.
Prince took nearly seven fewer shots per game than Gay did. You might be surprised how those attempts were replaced. Randolph took fewer shots, Gasol took about an extra half a shot on average, and Mike Conley's number barely moved. It was Jerryd Bayless who took biggest advantage of Gay's absence. He played six more minutes after the move and nearly doubled his field goal attempts per game. Because a third of Bayless' looks come from behind the arc, and he shot over 38 percent from deep after Feb. 1, he was the biggest contributor to the Memphis' offensive improvement.
All of those offensive elements were in play in the first game against Los Angeles. The contest was played at a Grizzlies-friendly snail's pace of 83 possessions. Memphis averaged 1.1 points on those possessions. Its effective field goal percentage (.500) was better than even its post-Gay season average. As usual, the volume of 3s wasn't large, but Memphis knocked down 5-of-12 from behind the arc. They got just over half their shots in the paint, converted 67 percent of those looks, and committed only seven turnovers. Bayless scored a team-high 19 points on only 12 shots.
So the problem wasn't the absence of Gay, or any sort of offensive shortcoming. During the regular season, Memphis posted a better offensive efficiency in just 31 of its 82 regular-season games. The Grizzlies won 30 of those matchups. In fact, Memphis scored 111.8 points per 100 possessions in Game 1. Before Saturday, Memphis was a stunning 37-1 in games when it put up an offensive rating of 107.4 or better. The problems came at the other end. The Clippers' first-game offensive rating of 137.5 was 8.6 points worse than Memphis allowed in any regular-season game. It's also 20 points worse than the Grizzlies allowed in any of the four previous matchups with Los Angeles.
Everyone is pointing at the rebounding disparity, and for good reason. Memphis had just four offensive boards -- one after halftime despite 19 missed shots -- and posted its worst offensive rebound percentage of the season. At the other end, the Clippers grabbed a whopping 14 of 33 offensive rebound chances, and outscored Memphis 25-5 on second-chance points. However, the problem wasn't that after 82 games as the league's second-best rebounding team, the Grizzlies forgot how to block out. It's that they reacted poorly to the quick whistles prevalent throughout the game.
[Randolph] and Gasol have to pound the glass no matter what, because their skills in that area are the pillars on which these Grizzlies are built.
Neither team appeared very happy with the way Saturday's contest was called, but there wasn't any real disparity. Memphis was called for 29 fouls; the Clippers 28. The 57 combined whistles were the most of any Memphis game all season. Both teams saw their big men get into foul trouble. The Clippers' Blake Griffin was the one player to foul out. He and Randolph, his power forward counterpart, were each held under 26 minutes.
But while both teams had to deal with a tightly called game, the Clippers were able to remain aggressive, while Memphis went into a shell. Neither Gasol nor Randolph grabbed a single offensive rebound in the game. As good as Memphis was on offense, it would have been even better had the Grizzlies stayed aggressive on the boards and collected something close to their normal rate of offensive rebounds.
During that decisive fourth period, the Clippers grabbed 11-of-12 off Memphis' glass and scored eight of their 10 fast-break points. Eric Bledsoe turned into a one-man break, making all six of his shots in the final period, five of them coming at the rim, while the Clippers made 12-of-15 in the paint during the last 12 minutes. Randolph was a non-factor after picking up his fourth foul, a charge with 3:47 to go in the third quarter. He didn't return to action until 5:33 remained in the game, and almost immediately was called for his fifth foul. At that point, Memphis was down by 11, but the Clippers rolled to a 22-12 finish after that.
None of this, you might notice, has much to do with whether or not Rudy Gay was on the floor.
There are a couple of considerations moving forward. First, given the way the game was going, it would have been worth the risk for Lionel Hollins to bring Randolph back much earlier in the game. However, it wouldn't have mattered if Randolph still played as reticently as he finished Saturday's game. He and Gasol have to pound the glass no matter what, because their skills in that area are the pillars on which these Grizzlies are built.
Hollins will surely pound that point home before Monday's second game. It's also worth noting that Saturday's officiating crew of John Goble, Scott Foster and Bill Kennedy was comprised of guys who tend to be a little quick with the foul call, but Monday's Game 2 will feature an all-new crew.
There were a lot of things about Saturday's game that were exceptional, but focus on the root of that adjective -- exception. The Memphis performance we saw two days ago was an aberration, and chances are we won't see it again, especially if the referees are a little more liberal with their foul calls.