***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[mplsdunk]

My wife’s mom is in this cult . The overall point was good until they started going into their typical culture war nonsense. The city council not getting this is wild

That’s stupid af.

But yeah the virtue signaling while you’re virtue signaling and culture war non sense wasn’t far behind.

 

[elpablo21]

Bro..

Is Nate trolling?

 

[IATT]

Bro..

Is Nate trolling?

cant believe people use to take that man seriously

 

[RustyShackleford]

A Data Scientist is really outchea using Twitter polls like this

 

[elpablo21]

cant believe people use to take that man seriously

But was Nate always like this?

I feel like there was less of him completely lacking any kind of awareness like 10 years ago but maybe I didn't pay attention that much back then too

 

[RustyShackleford]

But was Nate always like this?

I feel like there was less of him completely lacking any kind of awareness like 10 years ago but maybe I didn't pay attention that much back then too

The turn happened after 2016.

But it is mostly on Twitter he acts like an ***. On podcast he doesn't sound all that out there but a lot of that is because he had co-host that would challenge him so he had to be on point.

He is on of those smug highly online people that likes to believe that they are immune to the traps they swear other highly online people fall into. But clearly aren't.

Mans is basically Mathew Yglesias but really good at math stats.

 

[RustyShackleford]

But to be honest this shift in Nate Silver's behavior is predictable

All the red flags were there.

 

[Nike Jordan]

This War Will Destabilize The Entire Mideast Region And Set Off A Global Shockwave Of Anti-Americanism vs. No It Won’t

George W. Bush may think that a war against Iraq is the solution to our problems, but the reality is, it will only serve to create far more.

www.theonion.com

 

[dacomeup]

I thought Nate was on the chopping block over there?

 

[kdawg]

I hope it’s on TV.

 

[IATT]

 

[osh kosh bosh]

But was Nate always like this?

I feel like there was less of him completely lacking any kind of awareness like 10 years ago but maybe I didn't pay attention that much back then too

Nothing happened to Nate he's very obviously the same guy.

People on twitter are just insane
Twitter for most people is a team sport.

Once they decide you aren't on their "team"
They revoke a benefit of the doubt and good faith and retroactively cast all your accomplishments as failures.


Hence the thirst to pretend like he isn't very obviously the best most reliable political forcaster in the biz.

 

[Nike Jordan]

Nate Silver predicted Obama would win in 2008. So what?

Do you know who else predicted that Obama would win in 08? Me, that's who.

 

[Nike Jordan]

This your mans?

 

[dacomeup]

Nothing happened to Nate he's very obviously the same guy.

People on twitter are just insane
Twitter for most people is a team sport.

Once they decide you aren't on their "team"
They revoke a benefit of the doubt and good faith and retroactively cast all your accomplishments as failures.


Hence the thirst to pretend like he isn't very obviously the best most reliable political forcaster in the biz.

The turn on Nate has nothing to do with his forecasting and we BOTH know this.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Nate Silver predicted Obama would win in 2008. So what?

Do you know who else predicted that Obama would win in 08? Me, that's who.

Nate has the most accurate forecast pretty consistently. and looking at the 538 forecast will generally give you the most accurate probabilistic outcome.
people just refuse to think probabilistically.

if he says something has a 70% probability for example it generally tends to happen 70% of the time.


Other data forecasters were giving Trump 1% odds of victory in 2016.
Nate had it at around 30% if memory served. and accurately diagnosed while Trump had a much better shot than people realized.
He had Obama being stronger than the polls suggested against Mitt.
He was correct about Biden strength and ability to win even in the case of a modest polling error in 2020.

 

[IATT]

trump really does burn everything down on the way out

 

[osh kosh bosh]

The turn on Nate has nothing to do with his forecasting and we BOTH know this.

I didn't say it did, I said that now that people don't like Nate, they try to retroactively pretend that he isn't good at forecasting.

and It literally just happened in this thread;

Nate Silver predicted Obama would win in 2008. So what?

Do you know who else predicted that Obama would win in 08? Me, that's who.

now every cycle, people try and pretend like he isn't good at forecasting, or like he's gotten everything wrong.
it's obviously untrue and dumb, but he's not on their team so it's all good.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

This your mans?

I don't know why you think I would even slightly blink at this obviously anodyne post.

 

[dacomeup]

I didn't say it did, I said that now that people don't like Nate, they try to retroactively pretend that he isn't good at forecasting.

and It literally just happened in this thread;



now every cycle, people try and pretend like he isn't good at forecasting, or like he's gotten everything wrong.
it's obviously untrue and dumb, but he's not on their team so it's all good.

You said nothing happened to Nate when very obviously there was a turn in his behavior online. Plus, more and more came out that it also seems like he’s a pretty ****ty person or boss in the workplace, generally as well. Can’t hand wave that, which you seemingly did in your first post prior to you even responding to Nike Jordan

 

[RustyShackleford]

Nate has the most accurate forecast pretty consistently. and looking at the 538 forecast will generally give you the most accurate probabilistic outcome.
people just refuse to think probabilistically.

if he says something has a 70% probability for example it generally tends to happen 70% of the time.


Other data forecasters were giving Trump 1% odds of victory in 2016.
Nate had it at around 30% if memory served. and accurately diagnosed while Trump had a much better shot than people realized.
He had Obama being stronger than the polls suggested against Mitt.
He was correct about Biden strength and ability to win even in the case of a modest polling error in 2020.

A ton of people have an issue with his punditry not his forecasting

 

[osh kosh bosh]

You said nothing happened to Nate when very obviously there was a turn in his behavior online. Plus, more and more came out that it also seems like he’s a pretty ****ty person or boss in the workplace, generally as well. Can’t hand wave that, which you seemingly did in your first post prior to you even responding to Nike Jordan

Nate in 2008 was an aserbic online personality who went against at lot of the established political media narrative based mode of political predictions.

He took a lot of heat for it, and he stood firm despite that. He wrote a book about it, where he was pretty mean about political media and pundits predictive abilities.


He's the same guy, just in 2008 people though he was on their team and in 2023 people don't.

He hasn't changed imo And the fact that his critics seem to want to distort history to make thei jabs against him

It makes me highly skeptical they have a substantive disagreement.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

A ton of people have an issue with his punditry not his forecasting

That's fine people should just disagree with that.

But instead we get a lot of obtuse readings of anodyne posts and lame attempts at dunks for his past polling misses.

So it makes me skeptical the broad turn against him is really all that substantive.

 

[IATT]

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Like do we think Nate has forgotten about representative samples?
or is he drawing causal inferences from a rough data point?


it seems to really really obvious to me he's doing the latter.

but instead you get overheated responses like;

again this just seems to me, he's not on your team, so you will read everything he does in the most obtuse way possible
in order to secure a twitter dunk. it just feels like pure twitter theatrics.