:::[Official] San Francisco 49ers 2024 Offseason Thread [NFC CHAMPIONS]:::

[ii flash ii]

The media got ya all stressed out

 

[junglejim]

Alright fellas, I'm not red81 and since he is gone im gone to take a stab at this, but using a different approach. I'm going to look at this from the perspective of a ****ING NERD. Now ill preface this by saying that I didnt create this spreadsheet, I stole it from someone who is a much bigger nerd than myself on twitter but I use it for my "friends" dynasty fantasy league to do nerd **** with. Some data may be inaccurate as I havent checked it number by number. I'll also preface this by saying im using a fantasy football top 12 finish as a hit here knowing full well that fantasy football does not equal real life football so **** you if you want me to use anything else you ****ing ****.

First lets start by looking at all first round QBs selected. I used that as a cutoff because outside the first its littered with busts. 12 QBs out of 152 QBs selected in rounds outside the first have hit a top 12 fantasy season so im going to ignore that **** because its an awful ****ing hit rate and the draft round tells me they weren't very good in college and a 7% hit rate tells me its not worth the time nor effort to differentiate those players. Also note, I don't think this spreadsheet has DII prospects on it for whatever reason so Lance and Wentz arent on here. Here is a list of every QB selected in the first round of the NFL draft in the last 20 years. I put estimated draft capital in here for the 2021 people to make the filter process easier.

First thing I noticed is there is a ton of older QB prospects on here. Again, I'm using fantasy football here as a substitute here for real life knowing damn well that fantasy football does not correlate to real life football but of the 27 prospects on this list that were age 23 or older, only 7 of them hit a top 12 season so 7/27 or 7/25 if you exclude joe burrow and baker mayfield who will almost certainly hit at some point. So a 28% hit rate for older QBs. The one thing almost all of those QBs that didn't hit had in common was each of them had a pretty low AYA in college (less than 9). AYA usually translates to the NFL in such a way that if I wasn't throwing deep in college, I'm probably not going to throw deep a ton in the NFL. Here is the list of QBs who were 23 and older, and had a AYA of less than 9

The only three "busts" on this list that had an AYA greater than 9 was Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, and Tim Tebow of all ****ing people. I feel comfortable saying Mayfield and Burrow will likely be a top 12 QB at some point so im cool excluding them. Tim Tebow was just a unicorn of a weird QB that was probably as much of a running back as he was a QB. The good news is, McCorkle doesnt fit into any of these buckets. He is 22 and his Yards per attempt was 10.9 which is really ****ing good (the second highest of all first round QBs in the last 20 years second to only Tua of all people)

So lets keep the older guys off this list for now since they hit at a much, much lower rate. If I look at just the guys drafted in the first, and were age 22 or younger. Our list consists of 39 players. I dont feel comfortable calling anyone in the last two years worth of draft classes a bust yet so if we exclude them, our sample size is 33 players. Of those 33 first round players who were 22 or younger when drafted, 20 hit a top 12 season so a 60.1% hit rate.

Here is the list of players who were 22 or younger that didn't hit at any point in their career. Similar theme, substantially all of them had a AYA less than 9 with the exception of Mariota, Haskins, Manziel, and Bradford. Haskins and Manziel never hit due to off field stuff, Bradford had tons of knee issues, and I don't think anyone will ever understand why Mariota never hit since he had one of the greatest statistical college profiles of all time. Similarly, Manziel and Haskins both played in less than 30 college games which from my understanding is pretty important in terms of projecting NFL success.

That's a bad list.

So lets take it one step further, here is the list of QBs who were selected in the first round, have at least appeared in 30 college games, were age 22 or younger when drafted, and had an AYA of at least 8

That's not a bad list to be included with. Bortles, Mariota, and Bradford kind of stink up that list a little bit, RG III and Bridgewater were on track until they got killed by injuries.

Lets take it a step further, here is your list of QBs drafted in the first, have a draft age 22 or less, have a completion percentage > 63%, have a AYA > 8, and have a Completion percentage over expectation of > 7%. This excludes any filter for games played.

Now im going to do one last one. Here is your QBs drafted in the first round with a college completion percentage > 70%, AYA > 9, and CPOE > 10

That's it. That's the magnitude of the season and a half that McCorkle just had.

My biggest concerns about McCorkle are the off field ****, but he genuinely did stuff last year that no college QB has ever done before from an efficiency standpoint. There are concerns about his aDOT (average depth of target) being the lowest of any of the QBs in the current draft class meaning he was on average throwing shorter passes than other QBs, but we know that the 49ers are filled with YAC monsters and we know that if we have a QB that can get the ball to those YAC monsters in stride they will continue to push his AYA up higher than other QBs. TBH im more concerned about the drinking **** than I am with the smaller sample size and college numbers because his college numbers are pretty ****ing good.

Hope this helps make you feel better on draft eve and thanks for coming to my Ted talk.

 

[3god]

Too nerdy, man.

 

[glasses]

I would give Kyle more leeway if he moved up to 3 for Fields originally, then in the process, discovered he is more interested in Mac. But to move up to 3 from 12 for Mac Jones who was slated as a mid-first makes NO SENSE and REALLY calls into question Kyle's ability to evaluate talent.

Even IF Mac Jones wins us a Superbowl, trading 2 firsts would not be worth it because he would have

A. Been available at 12
B. Those 2 first-round picks help keep the window open longer

Kyle is known to make terrible decisions in big situations - so I wouldn't put it past him.

 

[3god]

If Mac is the pick, Kyle will never hear the end of it, until they win a SB. And with Mac, I never see that happening.

 

[junglejim]

I would give Kyle more leeway if he moved up to 3 for Fields originally, then in the process, discovered he is more interested in Mac. But to move up to 3 from 12 for Mac Jones who was slated as a mid-first makes NO SENSE and REALLY calls into question Kyle's ability to evaluate talent.

Even IF Mac Jones wins us a Superbowl, trading 2 firsts would not be worth it because he would have

A. Been available at 12
B. Those 2 first-round picks help keep the window open longer

Kyle is known to make terrible decisions in big situations - so I wouldn't put it past him.

Here is the thing. One, we don't know where he would have been available at. We as general arm chair GM's think that he may have been available at 12. Here is the list of QBs that could have potentially taken a QB prior to that trade that cascaded down to a bunch of different teams moving in the draft:

Eagles (who were at 6 and were talking about a QB before they moved down)
Jacksonville
Jets
Panthers
Broncos
Lions

Outside of the top 12 here are the teams who could realistically trade up to inside the top 12 to get a QB if they are there
Patriots
Bears
Raiders talked about doing due diligence on QBs
WFT

So not only do you have to hope that 6 teams who need a quarterback don't take one in front of you, you need to worry about 4 teams behind you potentially making a similar move as we did to move up. That's too many moving parts to assume someone would have been there at 12.

 

[3god]

Could have traded up to 6 and kept at least 1 1st rounder.

 

[junglejim]

Could have traded up to 6 and kept at least 1 1st rounder.

That's a more realistic scenario, but you still have the same concern with teams jumping you. I don't think that's realistic that 3 other teams would jump them but I get the move from their standpoint.

 

[3god]

No one was gonna jump them at 6 to get Mac Jones lol. Only team that values him that high is potentially the 9ers. I’m still not sold they even value him that high. It feels like they are just letting everyone run their mouths, when no one really knows anything.

 

[junglejim]

No one was gonna jump them at 6 to get Mac Jones lol. Only team that values him that high is potentially the 9ers. I’m still not sold they even value him that high. It feels like they are just letting everyone run their mouths, when no one really knows anything.

I'd recommend watching that press conference from Monday. I wasn't fully believing it either until that press conference, but it was 30 minutes of Shanahan being defensive and combative as **** talking about how people should be happy with whoever they select at 3 if they were happy with him at 12 and defending all of the pocket passers of NFL's past. Plus trying to trade Jimmy immediately instead of keeping him is pretty telling that we are selecting Mac and rolling with him from day 1.

But again, its almost impossible to tell how different NFL teams value a player without being in that room. There is enough out there to at least draw a conclusion that the NFL is generally higher on butter god than we, the general public are.

I know you guys hate it and so do I, but Mac is going to be our franchise QB tomorrow night.

 

[glasses]

I'd recommend watching that press conference from Monday. I wasn't fully believing it either until that press conference, but it was 30 minutes of Shanahan being defensive and combative as **** talking about how people should be happy with whoever they select at 3 if they were happy with him at 12 and defending all of the pocket passers of NFL's past. Plus trying to trade Jimmy immediately instead of keeping him is pretty telling that we are selecting Mac and rolling with him from day 1.

But again, its almost impossible to tell how different NFL teams value a player without being in that room. There is enough out there to at least draw a conclusion that the NFL is generally higher on butter god than we, the general public are.

I know you guys hate it and so do I, but Mac is going to be our franchise QB tomorrow night.

That's like saying you should be happy with a Honda but paying Ferrari price for it" We were happy because that's the best we could afford at the time.

There's still a chance for Lance tomorrow night.

 

[junglejim]

That's like saying you should be happy with a Honda but paying Ferrari price for it" We were happy because that's the best we could afford at the time.

There's still a chance for Lance tomorrow night.

Agreed. I will say I may have created a petition to get Shanahan fired because of that statement because its ****ing ridiculous.

 

[junglejim]

Hope is a terrible ****ing thing

 

[Rockabilly Zombie]

More than anything I just want this to be over

 

[danger style]

I cant guarantee any of us will be alive tomorrow, but I can guarantee Mcckorkle will be our new QB

 

[bentrill]

Shoutout to JungleJim for the in depth review.

I have no problem with how much the 49ers gave to secure whatever QB they end up drafting. In the draft there’s always surprise picks and slips. Never know

 

[thasoleful1]

Look at these media ****s now saying they don’t know who the 49ers taking. Back peddling to cover their *** before draft day.

 

[DonRafa]

Look at these media ****s now saying they don’t know who the 49ers taking. Back peddling to cover their *** before draft day.

you know they gonna post articles and fill air time with something. it’s been clear for a bit they have no clue

 

[Fozz]

I mean....yeah we are all Niner fans so we will roll with the pick if its him and support him too. I will always say that if a GM picks someone that turns out to be a bust, he should get exponentially more criticism if the player is a reach. There were absolutely zero analysts, pundits or what have you that had Jones ranked as high as we would pick him. If we took him at 12 and he didnt turn out, then our front office would be given the benefit of the doubt. Trading tons of picks to move up to 3 puts you in a different light if he busts.

Thats why I will never ridicule the Raiders for Jamarcus Russell. Every team who needed a QB would have picked him 1st overall if they had the pick. It would have been an inexcusible pick if there were 2-3 other QBs that draft that were rated higher and the Raiders STILL picked Russell.

If Mac is the pick, he better damn sure be good or Kyle and Lynch will be shown the door.

I have a feeling it would be Kyle that would be shown the door. That press conference sounded like he didn't want Jones lol.

 

[Fozz]

Hypothetically, if the Jets pass on Wilson, do the Niners go for Wilson or is Kyle still set on Jones if he's there?

 

[DonRafa]

Hypothetically, if the Jets pass on Wilson, do the Niners go for Wilson or is Kyle still set on Jones if he's there?

that would be the worst draft move in franchise history


but we all know kyle is stubborn AF,

 

[Fozz]

that would be the worst draft move in franchise history


but we all know kyle is stubborn AF,

Bad move for who? I feel like it would be bad for both Jets and Niners because of Kyle's stubborness lol.

 

[DonRafa]

but the jets are known for making bonehead moves. that wouldn’t shock anyone

 

[22stylez]

This should be no surprise Kyle and John don’t rank their draft board the same as experts and other teams.

This the same dudes that said they had solomon and reuben were ranked 2 and 3 behind Garrett in 2017

Same dudes that said if kinlaw was taken before 13-14 they woulda took Aiyuk there.

If they like someone they don’t care where they’re picking. They’re getting their guy. So regardless of 12 or 3 or how many draft picks they traded. Kyle is getting HIS guy

 

[3god]

And that guy is now Trey Lance.