OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[crownedhead]

GME tho

GME back it again

It just won't go away

 

[crownedhead]

CCIV might be under $20 before the week is over

I'd consider copping around $18 maybe

 

[igotthatstock]

I am rolling into commodities and financial institutions.

 

[iheartboost]

GME tho

 

[noskey]

Still have my limit sell order at 420.69 open.

 

[anderson]

biggie62
GreenNGold89
antidope

thanks fellas.

 

[QU!K]

Wonder if GME will hit 100 before the market closes

 

[iheartboost]

GME haulted? Lol.

 

[jrp44]

Wtf happened? Lmao

 

[johnnyredstorm]

I think Lucid would be a good long term hold, why isn’t the market reflecting that? Lol

I don’t have a lot but I got in at 42

Because it’s a $24b EV at $15. At $30 it’s a $50b company with no product and no sales. It’s an idea and hope that it becomes Tesla. $20 or less. And I’d consider the gamble. I rather buy JMIA or gamble on ONDS if I’m gonna be betting on 0 revenues.

 

[QU!K]

 

[deleted user 7639]

Spoiler: $SBG — Owlet Baby Care | Jonah Lupton

$SBG — Owlet Baby Care
Introduction to the Owlet Smart Sock [please watch this video]
Websites: OwletCare.com and OwletBaby.com
SPAC Website: SandBridgeAcquisition.com
Stock Price: $10.15
Market Cap: $1.4 billion
Enterprise Value: $1.07 billion
Headquarters: Lehi, UT

Founded: 2012
Founders: Kurt Workman, Jordan Monroe, Zack Bomsta, Jake Colvin
CEO: Kurt Workman
Employees: 180+
Owlet blog [click here]
Phone: 844-334-5330
Email: contact@owletcare.com
VC funding: $48 million raised [click here]
Owlet merger with SandBridge Acquisition SPAC [read here]
Owlet webcast about SPAC merger [watch here]

Owlet on Twitter [click here] - 27k followers
Owlet on Facebook [click here] - 684k followers
Owlet on YouTube [click here] - 6k subscribers
Owlet on Instagram [click here] - 276k followers
Owlet on Pinterest [click here] - 25k followers, 6 million monthly views

2020 revenues: $75.2 million (est)
2021 revenues: $107.2 million (est)
2022 revenues: $174.7 million (est)
2023 revenues: $316.4 million (est)
2024 revenues: $581.4 million (est)
2025 revenues: $1,064.5 million (est)

$SBG - Owlet Baby Care

OVERVIEW:
Owlet Baby Care aka $SBG is building the premier baby-tech company with the connected nursery and digital parenting platform as part of the larger ecosystem. Just like Peloton is building a hardware/software/subscription ecosystem for fitness — Owlet is doing the same thing for parents and caretakers.
I’m not a parent so I can’t speak to these topics from personal experience but I have 5 nieces and 4 nephews plus many of my closest friends are parents so I know first hand how obsessed new parents are with their babies and how they are in a constant state of worry and panic. Every time their baby gives them a funny look or starts to cry they begin to freak out. Obviously these fear dissipate over time but how amazing is it that now we have a company like Owlet that is providing the products and services to make the parents job a little easier and less chaotic.

I first came across Owlet in the Fall of 2016 after the company raised their Series-B round [click here]. I thought they were onto something huge so I emailed the company and asked for an interview with one of their co-founders which you can [listen here].
I have followed the company closely ever since my interview and now that the company is coming public via the $SBG SPAC we have an incredible opportunity to get in early while growth is accelerating rapidly which should lead to multiple expansion and strong returns for shareholders.
Owlet has already developed a very strong brand in the baby-tech industry with great retail partnerships, numerous awards and a strong IP portfolio (patent search on USPTO website) but going public via $SBG will increase awareness of their products and help them hit their ambitious business goals.

I’ve been saying for years that the two most irritational groups of consumers are new parents and new pet owners. There is almost no limit as to the amount of money they are willing to spend on their babies and their furry 4-legged friends.
This is one of the many reasons why I think Owlet is perfectly positioned to capitalize on this baby-tech trend which combines wearables, health monitoring and critical data to provide a better solution for newbie parents as well as pregnant women (with their newest product the pregnancy band).

Owlet is redefining the way in which parents are supported by technology and empowering them to proactively monitor the health of their newborns to not only protect the baby but also give them piece of mind.
The baby-tech industry is many years behind most consumer tech markets so it’s excited to think that we have a chance to get in early while this trend is just taking off. As you can see below, thousands of babies die every year from SUID (sudden unexpected infant death) and Owlet can help prevent this.
Just like car seats are a must-have product for every parent to keep their baby safe in the car, I expect the Owlet smart sock to keep their baby safe the other 23 hours of the day.

Owlet has a huge lead on other baby-tech companies with their world-class design and engineering team plus years of gathering and analyzing data. They already have 1+ million customers and with the brand loyalty they have developed it now gives them the platform they need to launch new products and expand the ecosystem thus creating more LTV (lifetime value) from each customer.

Let’s also not overlook the fact that 4+ million babies are born every year in the US which give Owlet a constant new supply of customers and their loving parents who want to keep them safe and healthy.

SPAC TEAM:
Before we talk more about the company I just want to speak about SandBridge because this is a very strong SPAC team that will continue to add value to Owlet, their management team and the shareholders.
Here’s the info on $SBG when they raised $200 million for the SPAC this past summer [click here]

In the deal announcement webcast Ken Suslow mentioned they were looking for a high-growth consumer products company with strong customer loyalty, lots of competitive advantages and a large TAM (total addressable market). He stated this SPAC team looked at 50+ companies before deciding to finalize the deal with Owlet. I agree they found a potential gem with this company and I plan to be a shareholder for many years. Not that it’s super important by Tommy Hilfiger is an Advisor to Sandbridge and given his relationships with retailers I could see where his network and influence could be a very good thing for Owlet.

DEAL TERMS:
I think this SPAC transaction was done at very fair terms for all parties involved. If we look at the enterprise value which is the equity value minus the cash on balance sheet it was around $1.074 billion which is basically the same today with the stock trading at $10.18 per share.
For a company that should be able to average 60% revenue growth for the next 5 years I think the current valuation of 10x 2021 EV/Sales is way too low. There are plenty of consumer tech companies with slower growth trading at much higher EV/Sales multiples. Considering Owlet’s product portfolio, pipeline, IP protection, retail partners, and growth potential I think it’s fair to think they deserve an EV/Sales multiple close to 20x which is where I believe the stock should be trading in the next 6-12 months (maybe sooner).

PRODUCTS:
Now that we’ve covered the boring stuff, let’s talk about the cool stuff — the products. Owlet has developed a suite of baby-tech products including the smart sock, the baby cam/monitor and the pregnancy band. There’s also a sleep therapy program for new parents but I’m not going to spend much time on that one.

PRODUCTS — SMART SOCK:
Owlet is now on their 3rd generation smart sock and they nailed it. There were some flaws with Gen 1 and Gen 2 of the smart sock but the company has dramatically improved all aspects of the smart sock and the reviews are outstanding. I watched numerous YouTube reviews and read plenty of Mommy blogs to see what actual consumers were saying and they all love the newest smart sock with it’s accuracy to measure the babies vitals like heart rate and oxygen levels, the distance allowed between sock/base and the wireless charging capabilities.

The smart sock costs $299 by itself which isn’t cheap but when your babies life is on the line I think most parents will consider this a worthwhile purchase. Not only does the smart sock gather tons of data while it’s on the babies foot, but all of that data is being analyzed for the parents and is viewable in the Owlet mobile app for constant monitoring and piece of mind. I suggest you watch some of the views that I posted above which show you how the sock works and how the Owlet base lights up different colors based on the babies vitals — green is good — red is bad.

I read that parents lose somewhere around 300-400 hours of sleep in the first year of being a parent because they are constantly worried and stressed out about the babies health and vitals — this Owlet baby sock will help take away much of that anxiety and give parents some better night sleeps.

PRODUCTS — CAM/MONITOR:
Obviously there are other baby monitors on the market but Owlet does have one of the highest rated ones plus it’s been proven with other brands like Apple, Peloton, etc that consumers are willing to pay a premium for products that part of the same ecosystem and therefore work flawlessly together. Owlet is on a mission to build the highest-quality suite of baby-tech products for parents and as they continue to launch new products it will be imperative for parents to just stick with one brand so all of their data is in one place.

You can save $50 when you buy the smart sock and cam/monitor as a package — they call it the Owlet Duo. Once again these products are helping to give parents some stress-free nights as they learn to balance their new life with a baby.

PRODUCTS — PREGNANCY BAND:
This is Owlet’s newest product and I think it could be huge — it’s already won a few awards in the wearables category and for good reason. To be honest there is limited information on the product at this time, which you can see from their website [click here] but knowing how anxious pregnant women feel about the health of their unborn baby I have to believe there’s a massive opportunity here for Owlet to capitalize on.

This reconfirms my thesis that Owlet wants to build the premier baby-tech company on the planet so adding something like this to the ecosystem would be huge because it gets them in front of soon-to-be mothers during the pregnancy then Owlet can use that relationship to upsell them other products like the baby cam/monitor and the smart sock. I fully expect to see other wearables and connected products for the nursery in the coming months/years.

PRODUCTS — DREAM LAB:
I’m not going to spend much time on this but it’s pretty obvious that new parents don’t get much sleep so Owlet has an entire coaching program setup to help these Mom’s and Dad’s adjust to the “new normal” and realize there’s a better way to do things that allow you to optimize for maximum sleep (even with a newborn).

Based on some reviews I read, the results appear to be quite compelling although we all know that programs like this are only as good as the willingness of the user to implement the techniques and suggestions.

REVIEWS:
I mean this in the nicest way possible but new parents can be very crazy and obsessive over their little bundle of joy so when they are spending money to protect that baby their expectations are very high — however Owlet passes the test with flying colors. I’ve looked at dozens, if not hundreds, of reviews for different consumer tech products over the years but 4.6 stars might be the highest I’ve ever seen.

I read through 30-40 reviews and it was mostly Moms saying how much Owlet has changed their life and given them a sense of calm knowing that the smart sock was watching over their baby 24/7 and would alert them if anything seemed off in terms of vitals.

It’s also worth mentioning that many of the largest YouTube channels, blogs and Facebook groups are for Moms (or expecting Moms) so once the find a product, try a product and love a product they have a huge captive audience to share it with. I believe Owlet has a tremendous opportunity to work with these large Mom-only audiences and partner with Mommy influencers. I actually know a couple ladies that have 30,000+ YouTube subscribers that tune in every week to watch them review different products.

PIPELINE:
There are multiple products in the Owlet pipeline which gives me different levels of excitement but the biggest catalyst for any of them would be getting the smart sock approved by the FDA as a medical product which would likely open up the potential for full coverage/reimbursement by the insurance companies. Owlet has been working towards this goal for the past couple years through multiple trials as you can see [click here]. In terms of getting the FDA to approve a baby product, here’s the bar they’d have to clear [click here].

I don’t know for sure how much bigger the market would get if the baby sock was FDA approved but it’s probably safe to say “much bigger” therefore it would have a material impact on the company’s future growth but either way it’s not a make-or-break since this is a $300 product — not a $3,000 product. Millions of parents can still afford to spend $300 to on the baby sock without insurance assistance however I would love to see this product more affordable for those lower income families where $300 is a significant purchase. They deserve the same access to products like this that can keep their babies safer and healthier.

I hope someday we’re living in a world where every single newborn has an Owlet smart sock on their foot and every pregnant woman has access to the pregnancy band if they want one.

The recent pandemic accelerated many consumer trends like ecommerce and digital payments but I’m not sure any of them compare to what’s happened with the emergence of telehealth. The entire world now realizes that you should have access to medical professionals and specialists through your computer or mobile app versus always having to go into an office and sit there for 50 minutes until they call your name. Owlet realizes this and is building a telehealth platform that can connect parents to experts, both before and after the baby is born. This would also allow the medical professionals to receive the smart sock’s data thus keeping them in the loop with the baby’s health and any concerning signals.

BUSINESS MODEL:
Owlet wants to build a robust eco-system of hardware/software products for parents which started with the smart sock then expanded into monitors and now the pregnancy band with more to come. In my opinion the company is hardware/wearables first, software second and then recurring revenue third. These are the three pillars they will continue to build upon and monetize if they want to get to $1 billion in revenues by 2025.

I think we all appreciate the power of Apple’s ecosystem and if Owlet can replicate that playbook in the baby-tech and connected nursery industry then Owlet could definitely be a $10 billion company in 5-10 years. I already mentioned there are 4 million babies born every year in the US but did you know that number is actually 140 million when you include the entire world. That’s a massive, endless opportunity for Owlet to pursue over the next decade.

TARGET MARKET:
Hopefully by now you have figured out the target market is expecting parents but also younger couples and families which probably works out well for a tech-focused company like Owlet — but also because you don’t see too many 60 year old having babies
As you can see from Owlet’s social media channels, they have done a phenomenal job connecting with millennial parents who are in the middle of a pregnancy and in the process of making these purchasing decisions. Owlet will continue to invest in branding and marketing to reach this target market and partner with influencers and retailers to grow distribution and revenues.

This chart below speaks to the company’s desire to introduce new products to the Owlet ecosystem that will increase that LTV while also adding more recurring revenue products with higher margins. There’s a stat that new parents spend $12,000 to $15,000 per year on their babies which also includes costs like food and diapers but it shows that increasing the LTV by 5x over the next 5 years is ambitious but not impossible if they get the products right.

TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET:
The Owlet management team talks about an $80+ billion TAM but I never have much confidence into these numbers since it’s just hard to know this early on in the company’s lifecycle. Perhaps in 5-10 years we’ll know the true size of the TAM but either way it’s fair to say the company has plenty of room to grow both in terms of new products but also new markets ie international expansion as well as more retailer partners.

Personally I think telehealth is becoming a commodity and a very crowded field however in the case of Owlet I think it makes perfect sense assuming it can facilitate better communication and data flow between the doctor and the parent/baby.

GROWTH STRATEGY:
One of the products I didn't talk about yet but is super cool and part of the “connected nursery” strategy is the smart-bed. Information is limited but I did find this picture which gives you an idea of how the company is thinking about future products.

Right now the strategy includes product innovation/development, hopeful FDA approval for baby sock, rollout of telehealth integration, international expansion and possible acquisitions.

If the company is going to get to $1+ billion in annual revenues by 2025 which would likely get them to an $8-10 billion market cap, this is how they are going to do it

International expansion would provide massive upside for shareholders as this could increase the TAM for all of their products and services by 10-20x. I’m pretty sure parents in Germany or Japan or Australia would also see value in Owlet’s smart sock to monitor their babies vitals.

PT1. Had to split

johnnyredstorm was/is on to something

 

[deleted user 7639]

Spoiler: $SBG — Owlet Baby Care | Jonah Lupton

DISTRIBUTION:
With any consumer products company, you can have the best products but without sufficient distribution you are screwed. Like many other companies these days, Owlet is multi-channel which means they sell online through their own ecommerce store [click here] as well as Amazon.com [click here] and Walmart.com [click here] but they also sell through traditional brick & mortar retailers like Walmart, Target, Best Buy and BuyBuyBaby.

CUSTOMER ACQUISITION:
For every young company some of the most important metrics to watch closely are down below because these basically show how profitable each customer is over time and how much you can justify acquiring that customer for. These are very strong numbers from a consumer products company and bode well for their growth going forward. With a 10x or 20x or even 30x LTC/CAC they can invest heavily in customer acquisition (sales & marketing). The reason the company is forecasting a drop in CAC but increase in LTV is because of more products coming down the pipeline to strengthen their baby-tech ecosystem. This is how you get your customers spending 3x more with you — you keep creating new products for them to love and tell their friends about.

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES:
A decade ago we said “content is king” — Now we say “data is king”
In terms of competitive advantages for Owlet, I see many of them which I’ve listed in no particular order:
1) current product portfolio
2) product pipeline
3) existing retail distribution with more on the way
4) 1+ million existing customers
5) FDA clinical trials already underway
6) robust R&D process
7) $300+ million on the balance sheet
strong brand awareness and NPS scores
9) strong patent portfolio [click here]
10) seasoned management team and SPAC team

FINANCIALS:
Sometimes you have to take these 5 year financial projections with a grain of salt because you really don’t know how the company is coming up with them despite their best efforts to show charts and graphs. In the case of Owlet I actually think they have a good shot at hitting these numbers — assuming we get a couple more innovative products (not including the pregnancy band), more b&m retailers and of course some international expansion. I think the TAM for baby-tech products is enormous and will grow rapidly in the coming years because the core audience is millennials in their 20s and 30s with disposable income and the desire to own the best products in every category. I’m convinced that Owlet is going to be the leader in both baby-tech and the connected nursery.
Hopefully the company can meet their gross margin goals which will help them get to profitability within the next few years. I rarely worry about my portfolio companies losing money in the short term in order to invest in growth, product development, expansion, sales, marketing and capturing market share. The only way you build a $10 billion company is to forgo profits in the short term and instead focus on growing those revenues and building a strong ecosystem for customers.

VALUATION:
As I mentioned above, I think valuation on Owlet is extremely reasonable although if I’m being honest I think it’s ridiculous this company is not already trading at 15-20x 2021 sales especially when I look at some of the companies below and see their multiples. We already know that Owlet is trading at 10x 2021 EV/Sales with 60-80% revenue growth potential going out to 2025 and improving gross margins. This stock is about to hit the radar for tens of thousands of investors over the next few days and I’m glad they’ll finally be paying attention. I’m pretty pumped up for this company if you can’t tell — I just appreciate how massive this market is going to be for Owlet and I believe they have the team, products and resources to dominate.

MANAGEMENT:
Very strong team across the board, most of whom have either been at Owlet since the beginning or come from other amazing companies like Microsoft, August, United Health, etc.
I’ve been watching this company execute for the past 4+ years and I have no doubt they’ll continue to do so especially under the guidance of Sandbridge.

CONCLUSION:
I’ll keep this brief since I’ve basically said everything I want to say. Every week when I’m trying to decide which company to write about I consider at least 20-30 companies that I already own or are on my watchlist.
My goal is to find a disruptive, innovative company that I can get passionate about with strong fundamentals at a reasonable valuation that can go up 50% within 12 months and 5x within 5 years. I am very confident that Owlet is going to be one of these companies which is why it’s now a top 10 position in my portfolio and I will continue to add to this position in the coming days, weeks and months. If I’m right and Owlet dominates the baby-tech and connected-nursery industry through product innovation, better data, bigger retail partners, international expansion, and perhaps some M&A — all while lowering their CAC and increasing their LTV then I have no doubt this is a $10+ billion company in 5-10 years which would be 10x from here and a substantial return for shareholders.

I don’t think any of my siblings are planning to have more babies anytime soon but in the event they change their mind or I feel generous and decide to buy a smart sock for one of my friends, I will sleep good at night knowing that I’m giving that parent some piece of mind. I may never know how stressful and anxious it can be as a newborn parent but myself and millions of others should be grateful that companies like Owlet are there for make our lives a little be easier.

As we continue to move into a world with more wearables and connected devices, I expect Owlet will lead that charge for parents and newborns. When you think of baby-tech or the connected nursery you will think of Owlet and that’s an exciting story for investors.
In case you didn’t know… my investment strategy is finding small/mid cap growth companies with at least 30% sustainable revenue growth that can 5x in 5 years while improving humanity and making our planet a better place to live — Owlet meets these requirements and I’ll be a proud shareholder as I support them in their journey.

PT2.

 

[anderson]

time to buy more tdoc

 

[crownedhead]

Is it time to have some fun with GME?

I think it might be.

I might jump back on this crazy *** wagon (or should I say rocket)

Made out quite ok the last time (in at $90 out at over $300)

Invest only what you're willing to lose.

 

[6 Rings G.O.A.T.]

 

[iheartboost]

I still have 2 shares of GME. Riding this wave...

 

[southernhospita]

The exact same thing is going to happen with GME
Folks are going to jump in late get crushed
Have huge losses looking for someone to blame

These platforms don’t need to restrict buying just let the pump and dump play out like it always does

I know the folks at $400 are nervous

 

[206to813]

We'll be interested in hearing yalls thoughts on the Instacart IPO when the time comes..........

Instacart adds board members, including Facebook's Fidji Simo, as it preps IPO

The appointments represent the first independent members and first woman to join the board of the nearly decade-old company, recently valued at $17.7 billion.

www.cnbc.com

 

[degenerate423]

Man, f*** GME .

 

[Arthur Shelby]

AMC I didn’t hold the line

 

[crownedhead]

AMC I didn’t hold the line

Me too. I paper handed that bxtch

 

[iheartboost]

I held on to 4 shares of AMC

 

[ps2child]

Them hands holding GME tho.

 

[iheartboost]

VIAC earnings call happening soon, hopefully good news

*fingers crossed*