OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET & ECONOMY THREAD VOL. SCHOOL'S OUT

[nicefro]

opinions on gnvc, announced contract with DHS, looks like it may have already been priced in

 

[lazyj10]

Got my $16 strike price for the March BAC Options. Closed off the position nightly. 40% gain.

Onto something new...probably not today.

 

[runningfishy]

dup.

 

[runningfishy]

^^ Nice..

I am stretched to the max w/ buying power in the bull dept.

Oil from a few days ago is still my biggest winner thus far. Gosh, I wish I had held the full position, but fundamentals dictate.

I knew the discount rate was meaningless. Yesterday, AH kids and gals browned their pants. LOL

 

[lazyj10]

Originally Posted by RunningFishy

^^ Nice..

I am stretched to the max w/ buying power in the bull dept.

Oil from a few days ago is still my biggest winner thus far. Gosh, I wish I had held the full position, but fundamentals dictate.

I knew the discount rate was meaningless. Yesterday, AH kids and gals browned their pants. LOL

I figured that yesterday's announcement would have somewhat of a early impact (wasn't sure how large) coupled with sell off for early profit taking. Market started off down off the bat, I had a tight stop on the Calls, which came close to being triggered.

 

[north dade represent]

Originally Posted by RunningFishy

.

Oil from a few days ago is still my biggest winner thus far. Gosh, I wish I had held the full position, but fundamentals dictate.

Made a few bills on OIL myself in the past couple weeks. Just sold because of dollar concerns. 

  

 

[runningfishy]

Originally Posted by North Dade Represent

Originally Posted by RunningFishy

.

Oil from a few days ago is still my biggest winner thus far. Gosh, I wish I had held the full position, but fundamentals dictate.

Made a few bills on OIL myself in the past couple weeks. Just sold because of dollar concerns. 

  

Smart.

Taking profits and being careful is good, especially w/ the weekend.

To say it didn't have an impact is a blatant lie.  

What's interesting is the correlation we see w/ stronger dollar and stronger equities & gold/oil. HAHA  Something is up, definitely.  But indicators tell me this is a sign of an economy 'really' healing.

  

 

[runningfishy]

I'm going into the weekend on the same plan as last weekend.
FULL BULL UP TO MY $*% on margin. About 40-60% deep, depending on how we close.

But of course, stop losses are your friend.

 

[illmatickal]

how do you guys go about identifying/determining resistance points/ranges?

Are there any books anyone would recommend in regards to swing trading?

 

[scarface2k1]

what are the plays this week fellas?

 

[runningfishy]

After so many days green, bears are finding more reason to short. The market is not excited nor jolted by anything.
I am expecting a day or two being flat/red, today being one of them depending on how we close. But I think this week, we will still see gains.


What I can tell you is that I am still 'long'.

 

[kicksfiend]

Originally Posted by RunningFishy

After so many days green, bears are finding more reason to short. The market is not excited nor jolted by anything.
I am expecting a day or two being flat/red, today being one of them depending on how we close. But I think this week, we will still see gains.


What I can tell you is that I am still 'long'.

I disagree. Get your stop losses ready. 2010 is going to be the year of sovereign defaults...

“We almost always have sovereign risk crises in the wake of an international banking crisis, usually in a few years, and that’s happening,

 

[teddy jam]

esp long-term once rates go up, dollar will go up, commodities will drop

as of now, i don't see any excitment for opening longs - just going to keep playing the waiting games and wait for juicy entry points

(i don't short, too risky for my taste)

what's your take on Nat gas? taking a pummelling past 4-5 days...looks like a good entry point? yes demand is weak, but i'm sure it will recover

 

[runningfishy]

edit

 

[runningfishy]

Originally Posted by teddy jam

esp long-term once rates go up, dollar will go up, commodities will drop

as of now, i don't see any excitment for opening longs - just going to keep playing the waiting games and wait for juicy entry points

(i don't short, too risky for my taste)

what's your take on Nat gas? taking a pummelling past 4-5 days...looks like a good entry point? yes demand is weak, but i'm sure it will recover

i agree a bit w/ nat gas, but it's been in free fall.

 

[runningfishy]

Originally Posted by teddy jam

esp long-term once rates go up, dollar will go up, commodities will drop

as of now, i don't see any excitment for opening longs - just going to keep playing the waiting games and wait for juicy entry points

(i don't short, too risky for my taste)

what's your take on Nat gas? taking a pummelling past 4-5 days...looks like a good entry point? yes demand is weak, but i'm sure it will recover

The moment to go long was last week.  I was pushed too by the strength of the bull, but if you check my posts, I was long up till about yesterday/today.  The gyrations told me to change positions and I did for today's big fall.  After 6-7 days on very strong gains, it was time for money to be taken off the table.

In the course, I got out of positions to book profits and I re-rentered.

Now, is it time to go long here?

I can't speak for others, but I am LONG for a quick play, but I have some green already from my shorts carrying through as a hedge..  For those that care and follow, I am still holding that oil position from last week and playing it as my core.  I am net long though.

  

 

[lazyj10]

Since it was asked a page or so ago regarding Blockbuster:

[h1]Blockbuster Plots a Remake[/h1]By MIKE SPECTOR[h3] [/h3]
Withits traditional video-rental business under assault, Blockbuster Inc.has brought in restructuring advisers, looking to buy yet more time toremake itself in the face of new rivals and technologies.

In recent days, Blockbuster tapped law firm Weil, Gotshal &Manges and investment bank Rothschild Inc. to look at ways to reduceits roughly $1 billion debt load and explore other strategies, such asacquisitions or partnerships, said people familiar with the matter.

Meanwhile, bondholders have begun organizing and talking withpotential advisers to prepare for possible negotiations over reworkingthe company's capital structure, such as converting debt to equity,according to the people familiar with the situation.

At the same time, Blockbuster has been in discussions with HollywoodVideo chain owner Movie Gallery Inc.—which filed for bankruptcyprotection earlier this month—about acquiring assets that might bolsterthe Dallas-based company's prospects.

Blockbuster, which reports earnings Wednesday, started sounding outrestructuring bankers and lawyers anew in the past couple of weeks,signaling it wanted to explore more strategic options but do so outsideof bankruptcy. The restructuring discussions are in early stages and nomajor actions appear imminent, cautioned the people close to thematter.

Chief Executive Jim Keyes said the company works with advisersregularly and that management is considering a menu of optionsincluding reworking its debt and pursuing merger-and-acquisitionopportunities. He declined to elaborate.

"We don't contemplate filing for bankruptcy," he said in an interview.

Blockbuster has stoked fears of bankruptcy at least twice in recentyears but always found a way to rearrange its finances, most recentlywith a $675 million high-yield bond deal in October. Investorsattracted to the bonds' high 11.75% yield helped Blockbuster issueabout twice the amount it originally sought. Blockbuster used theproceeds to repay bank debt.

Blockbuster's plight comes amid major shifts in how people rent andwatch movies. Consumers are now getting movies through Redbox, a unitof Coinstar Inc. that operates $1-a-night movie-vending machines in grocery stores and McDonald's Corp. outlets. NetflixInc., a mail-order and online rental service, has also stolenBlockbuster customers. Consumers are also watching movies and TV showsthrough on-demand cable services and electronic gadgets such as Apple Inc.'s iPod.

Sipa Press

Blockbusterhas adjusted its business, outlining plans to close nearly 1,000 storesout of roughly more than 5,000 world-wide. As the movie-rental businesshas evolved, Blockbuster has moved into other video-watching services,such as its own mail-order service, DVD rental kiosks and a digitalon-demand service, but it remains far behind its major competitors inthose areas.

Blockbuster reaps licensing fees from NCR Corp., which rolled outabout 2,500 Blockbuster Express branded vending machines last year andplans to have up to 10,000 DVD kiosks by the end of this year.Blockbuster's kiosk presence is much smaller than that of Redbox, whichhas more than 22,000 vending machines.

Blockbuster's mail-order service has about 1.6 million subscribers,compared with Netflix's roughly 12 million. Blockbuster's digitalplatform reaches about two million devices, a spokeswoman said,including Apple's iPhone. Still, Blockbuster faces stiff competitionfrom cable on-demand services and Apple's iTunes.

The company showed a loss of $483.1 million for the 12 months endingOctober 2009, according to Standard & Poor's. Its marketcapitalization is about $74 million.

Needham & Co. analyst Charles Wolf expressed skepticism thatBlockbuster can realize enough value from new business offerings intime to offset declines at its traditional brick-and-mortar outlets.

"If they can't build a profitable stores operation, then there is noBlockbuster. It's real simple," Mr. Wolf said. If traffic doesn't pickup by mid-year, "we may just kiss this whole story good-bye. We got adead-man-walking situation here."

"We're big believers in the future model and the ability totransform Blockbuster over time," said Mr. Keyes, the CEO. "Thequestion we have is: What is the best capital structure to facilitatethat?"

Blockbuster has mulled converting some of its debt to equity orbuying back some bonds at a discount, people familiar with the mattersaid.

A deal would likely focus on negotiating with a group of subordinated bondholders who are owed $300 million, the people said.

Blockbuster spooked investors over the past couple of months,downgrading its financial projections amid poor holiday sales andrevealing the resignations of three top executives. Its senior bondsfell from near par to around 63 cents before rebounding slightly, andits stock fell below 40 cents from around 73 cents earlier this year.S&P, meanwhile, cut the company's credit rating deep into junkterritory, with a negative outlook.

Mr. Keyes said the current discussions represent routine efforts tohelp "transform" Blockbuster's business. "I like to characterize it asremodeling a house," Mr. Keyes said. "When you're tearing down wallsand moving stuff around, the process itself makes it difficult to seethe end product ... but the outcome is often quite good."

Blockbuster expected to end its most recent fiscal year with $247.2million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of its fiscal year inJanuary, giving it some wiggle room in the near term. Still,Blockbuster faces debt payments of more than $190 million this year.

The company said it made about $42 million in payments in earlyJanuary. Blockbuster still generates cash but Wall Street analysts andrestructuring professionals worry Blockbuster will soon face liquiditypressures.

In early January, Blockbuster's chief merchandising officer, BillLee, sent a letter to rival Movie Gallery expressing interest inacquiring certain assets, including stores and customer lists,according to people familiar with the matter. Movie Gallery chose notto engage in discussions and focused on preparing a bankruptcy filing.

"We're still having discussions with them," Mr. Keyes said, addingthe company has no intention of acquiring Movie Gallery wholesale. Mr.Lee has since left the company.

Write to Mike Spector at mike.spector@wsj.com

 

[runningfishy]

^^ Interesting.

The greatest thing is seeing green on your shorts, and 'longs'. lol

Thanks !

 

[runningfishy]

Still Holding:
LONGS !

-Oil
-Indexes

SHORT
-POS Banks

At a point where the POS is no longer a marginable security. LOOOOL That can't be good. I won't cover though.

 

[scarface2k1]

what do you think will happen with bbi?
it really cant fall much father. would it be a good place with tight stops?
or would you short it?

 

[runningfishy]

Originally Posted by Scarface2k1

what do you think will happen with bbi?
it really cant fall much father. would it be a good place with tight stops?
or would you short it?

Dude.  BBI is trash.
It will be deslited soon.

Can you even short POS stocks? LOL

  

 

[scarface2k1]

yeah, actually the more i think of it. you cant short certain stocks cause they are not available to be shorted.
i tried to short CTIC at like 1.40 and E Trade wouldn't let me.

 

[runningfishy]

Originally Posted by Scarface2k1

yeah, actually the more i think of it. you cant short certain stocks cause they are not available to be shorted.
i tried to short CTIC at like 1.40 and E Trade wouldn't let me.

yeah. dont bother with those. just my 2 cents though.

 

[cruthik3]

The market is so rigged; its a joke.

 

[andycrazn]

Originally Posted by CruThik3

The market is so rigged; its a joke.

word to the manipulation of gold prices.