[h1]Buyer's Guide: Dirk Nowitzki[/h1][h3]The Dallas sharpshooter can still fill it up. But are there just too many miles on his tires?[/h3]
By Tom Haberstroh
Special to ESPN Insider
Archive
Matthew Emmons/US PresswireAs he ages, Nowitzki is taking fewer 3-pointers and more midrange fadeaways.
ESPN Insider is analyzing NBA free agents not named LeBron James (we covered him pretty extensively a few weeks ago, and there's even more coming every day on the LeBron Tracker) to determine what they're really worth to the teams chasing them this summer. To follow the entire series, click here. We continue today with Dallas sniper Dirk Nowitzki.
[h3]OVERALL ASSESSMENT[/h3]
By deciding to turn down a $21.5 million player option for next season, Dirk Nowitzki punched his ticket to the much ballyhooed free agent festivities this summer. That said, barring a cataclysmic misstep in negotiations, the big German will almost certainly play in Dallas for the foreseeable future. But it will come at a steep price.
The Mavericks will have the upper hand to land Nowitzki because they can offer more cash than any other team since league cap rules allow front offices to retain their franchise players at higher prices than their competitors can offer. All told, the Mavericks can -- and expect to -- offer Dirk an average annual salary of $24.1 million over four years, whereas those outside Dallas can only lure him at $23.3 million annually over four years.
And while he'll be worth every dollar, there are some red flags.
For one, Dirk's 3-point game has diminished drastically. With just 1.4 3-pointers per game, Nowitzki takes less than half as many 3s today as he did five seasons ago. But he hasn't phased the trifecta out of his game by necessity; he shot a personal-best 42.1 percent from beyond the arc this past season. Tall shooters at Nowitzki's stage in their careers tend to shoot more 3s to compensate for lost quickness, but he is moving in the opposite direction for some reason.
Rest assured, other teams are cheering Nowitzki's shot evolution. Opponents would certainly rather see Nowitzki take a fadeaway 22-footer with a 2-point payoff than watch him drill 3-pointers with similar accuracy. Pure and simple, it's a percentage play.
"You have to have Nowitzki shooting several 3s a game," one league exec said. "If he played for our team, he'd be taking six or seven 3s a game, that's for sure. [Dallas coach] Rick Carlisle's running a more regimented offense, and it's meant to get Dirk where he can operate in the midrange. He can take that turnaround jumper and fade over anybody. He's unstoppable there."
At this point in his career, it's time to treat Nowitzki more as a 7-foot shooting guard than a big man gifted with a lights-out shot. The nightly double-double outings he enjoyed early in his career are a distant memory. His offensive rebounding numbers have fallen off a cliff -- he's collecting nearly 30 percent fewer of the Mavericks' misses than he did in his 2007 MVP campaign. When he fades away from 20 feet, Nowitzki effectively surrenders any rebounding advantage he had as a 7-footer. What's worse, his rebounding numbers have slid on the defensive side as well, making it more of a question of effort than orientation on the hardwood.
Just like the rest of the big men in free agency, Nowitzki generates most of his value on the scoring end but is a liability defensively. Teams routinely try to force him into a mismatch to expose his clumsy footwork.
"You have to attack Dirk," the exec said. "You have to create situations where he has to switch on a guy who can attack his feet. It's not because he doesn't want to play defense; he's just not capable."
Nowitzki has been amazingly healthy in the NBA. He hasn't missed more than six regular season games in a season due to injury in his whole career. But there should be some concern that his astounding durability will come back to haunt him. He has logged more miles than a vintage Mercedes-Benz, and his year-round play will likely catch up to him eventually.
Defense and rebounding issues aside, Dirk can still score when and where he wants, even as he approaches his mid-30s. And for that rare commodity, he'll get as much money as the CBA allows.
[h3]FINDING THE RIGHT FIT[/h3]
Over his 12-year career with the Mavs, Nowitzki has played alongside just about every type of player. He's played with two future Hall of Fame point guards in
Steve Nash and
Jason Kidd, as well as 7-foot-6 center
Shawn Bradley. He's been paired with All-Star scorers like
Michael Finley,
Antawn Jamison,
Antoine Walker,
Jerry Stackhouse and
Caron Butler.
“
Ideally, you'd want a low-post power guy for Nowitzki. Or a really good wing. And I don't see Butler as that guy.
