Chad Ford Mock Draft 6.0
The NBA draft is now less than a month away. The draft combine is over. Team workouts have begun and it's time for our first mock draft update since the lottery. While this is hard for many fans to believe, things are still very much up in the air for teams -- including those at the top.
The top four or five prospects in the draft won't even begin workouts for another few weeks. Those interviews and individual workouts play a major role in teams' thinking when things are close -- and they are especially close this year. We'll do at least three more mock drafts before draft night with updates.
But for now, here's our best shot, after talking to numerous NBA team sources, about how the draft might play out June 25.
Remember, our mock draft is not a ranking of whom we think the top players are (see our Top 100 for the latest rankings of players). Instead, it's a reporting tool to convey our latest intel from NBA scouts and GMs on what each team might do in the draft.
Note: Traded picks are denoted by numbers with explanations at the bottom.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves - Karl-Anthony Towns
Karl-Anthony Towns is the No. 1-ranked player on my Big Board. However, virtually all the signals from sources inside the Wolves point to Jahlil Okafor being Flip Saunders' favorite right now. That obviously can change as we get closer to the draft. Workouts and interviews and lobbying from staff (I hear most of the rest of the staff favors Towns) could push Towns back atop. And after watching Towns' workout Monday, I believe that the Wolves will figure this out in favor of Towns. Towns has tremendous upside, no glaring weaknesses and he's a better fit in Minnesota, in my opinion, than Okafor. He has the highest ceiling of any player in the draft and I think his impact will come sooner rather than later. And do not totally discount here either. I am told Saunders is also a big fan and might be willing to move Ricky Rubio for the right deal.
2. Los Angeles Lakers - Jahlil Okafor
The Lakers will be elated if Okafor goes No. 1 and Towns slides here. He would be a slam dunk at No. 2. He is a great fit next to Julius Randle in the front court and the best two-way player in the draft. If Towns ends up going No. 1, then things get more complicated. I think the Lakers are torn between Okafor, Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay. However, the Lakers run a more traditional front office than most and have a tradition of dominant big men ruling the paint. I think, at the end of the day, the size of Okafor will win out.
3. Philadelphia 76ers - D'Angelo Russell
As I've said on multiple occasions, landing Russell at No. 3 would be a major boon to the Sixers. They desperately need both a point guard and a shooter, and Russell is the best in the draft on both counts. The Sixers also like Mudiay, though his elite lack of shooting ability appears to have him a tick below Russell right now. And don't count out Kristaps Porzingis here. Yes, they drafted Dario Saric last year and are high on him, but Porzingis is a terrific prospect and Sam Hinkie isn't afraid to take risks the way several GMs above and below him are. Especially if Russell ends up going ahead of the Sixers, I could see Porzingis landing here.
4. New York Knicks - Emmanuel Mudiay
It's still very tough to get a read on what the Knicks plan to do here. There are myriad Knicks scouts and execs who have their opinions. And then there's Phil Jackson. If by some chance Okafor and/or Russell are on the board here, the Knicks will take one of them. If they aren't, Mudiay is the obvious choice. They need help at point guard, and Mudiay's size and ability to break down defenses with penetration is a major need. But two other names to look out for are Justise Winslow and Willie Cauley-Stein. I'm told having a long, athletic big man who can defend multiple positions like Cauley-Stein is gaining traction in New York.
5. Orlando Magic - Kristaps Porzingis
While the Magic will obviously have several good options here -- Winslow, Cauley-Stein, Mario Hezonja -- I'm increasingly hearing that Porzingis is their guy. They've drafted a great young core nucleus of Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon, but have yet to land a top-tier superstar. Porzingis has that potential. His size, shooting ability and athleticism will all be a great fit for the Magic.
6. Sacramento Kings - Willie Cauley-Stein
After the first five picks are off the board, things will start to get interesting. Five of the next six teams in the draft -- the Kings, Pistons, Hornets, Heat and Pacers -- all have playoff aspirations next season and if the right offer comes along, these picks can definitely be had. Should the Kings keep this pick, their choices will likely be between Cauley-Stein, Winslow, Hezonja and, if he somehow slides, Mudiay. Cauley-Stein is the overwhelming favorite in Sacramento. The Kings desperately need rim protection and Cauley-Stein is the best defender in the draft. Winslow, Porzingis and Myles Turner are also possibilities if they are on the board at this point.
7. Denver Nuggets - Justise Winslow
The Nuggets continue to showcase Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried (along with just about everyone else on their roster), so drafting for need makes little sense. They are resetting the deck. The good news is that allows them to just take the best player who falls to them. Given the scenarios above that will either be Winslow, Hezonja or in certain scenarios, Mudiay. The overwhelming consensus right now is that this is where Winslow goes. He has the sort of high-energy, high-character game the Nuggets are seeking.
8. Detroit Pistons - Mario Hezonja
The Pistons' pick is being shopped around, though Detroit might be better off just holding onto it. They have a major need at the small forward position and there will be several terrific prospects still on the board when they pick. Winslow, Stanley Johnson, Kelly Oubre and Devin Booker could all be good fits, but at this point in the draft, Hezonja is a steal. He has the size, athleticism, shooting ability and competitive demeanor to be an elite NBA wing. And his experience playing for one of the top teams in Europe, FC Barcelona, should make him an immediate contributor.
9. Charlotte Hornets - Devin Booker
The Hornets are another team that, all things considered, would prefer a veteran who could step in from day one. They had no intention of being in the lottery this season and have no intention of returning to it next year. Their need is obvious: The Hornets finished dead last in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage at 31.8 percent last season. Hezonja, Oubre, Johnson, Frank Kaminsky and Myles Turner can all shoot 3s and would be good fits. But assuming Hezonja is off the board, Booker might be the best option. Other than Hezonja, Booker is the best shooter of the group, and while he's the youngest player in the draft, he has a terrific basketball IQ and plays with maturity. The Hornets don't need a home run here. A solid double will do.
10. Miami Heat - Stanley Johnson
The Heat will be primarily focused this summer on figuring out how to re-sign Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic and possibly Luol Deng. Pat Riley doesn't want anything to do with the lottery next season. If they can't find a suitable trade partner, then look for them to take the player most ready to come in and make an impact from day one. That was the thinking behind taking Shabazz Napier last season and it will follow this year. Kaminsky, Sam Dekker and Johnson all fit that mold. Johnson is the youngest of the three, but his NBA-ready body, toughness and confidence could make him a good fit in Miami.
11. Indiana Pacers - Cameron Payne
Larry Bird is promising to shake things up this summer and a big target will be in the middle. Assuming they can move Roy Hibbert in a trade, they'll have needs for a mobile big man. Both Myles Turner and Kaminsky could make some sense for them. But I am hearing lots of buzz out of Indiana that the team loves Payne and wants to pair Paul George with a quick, young, high basketball IQ point guard who can get to the basket. Payne has been rocketing up NBA team boards after declaring for the draft. A number of rival GMs believe the Thunder might already have promised to take him at No. 14. But I'm not sure he gets there anymore. Even teams as high as the Kings, Nuggets and Hornets are now showing interest.
12. Utah Jazz - Myles Turner
The Jazz are wisely being patient and letting their bevy of young talent develop naturally. They have players they like at all five positions and that gives them flexibility to draft for talent instead of need. They will be tempted to take Lyles, Kaminsky and Oubre here. But if Turner somehow falls to them at No. 12, they'll have to seriously consider him. On pure talent, he's a top-five pick. He's a little more raw than a number of other players on the board, but the Jazz can afford to bring him along slowly. If he hits his ceiling, he'll have the unique ability to play both the 4 and the 5, stretch the floor and be an elite rim protector.
13. Phoenix Suns - Frank Kaminsky
At No. 13, there are a handful of interesting prospects still left on the board. Oubre has the most upside, though the Suns might not have the patience to wait on him. Kaminsky seems like a better bet. He's NBA ready, he's an elite shooter (something the Suns could use after finishing in the bottom third in 3-point field-goal percentage) and he can play both the 4 and the 5 behind Markieff Morris and Alex Len.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder - Kelly Oubre
The Thunder are very high on Payne -- to the point that several rival GMs believe they've promised Payne they'll take him at No. 14 if he's there. If Payne is gone, I'm not sure there's another point guard who makes sense for them. Jerian Grant and Delon Wright are both big guards with plenty of experience. Wright especially tests well analytically, and I hear the Thunder are fans. Tyus Jones is another option, though he's small for his position. They also could try to do a long-term upgrade at the wing. They have plenty of mediocre options already -- Dion Waiters, Anthony Morrow, Andre Roberson, Jeremy Lamb -- but none of them thrills them in the long run. Oubre has all the physical tools to be a star on both ends of the court. Patience and putting Oubre in the right culture will be the key. OKC could be great for his development in the long run.
15. Atlanta Hawks - Bobby Portis
The Hawks finished the season in the bottom third in defensive rebounding. Then in the playoffs, they got absolutely demolished in the paint by the Cavs. They have Al Horford and Pero Antic and not much else. Portis' rebounding and shot-blocking ability, combined with an elite motor and unselfish attitude, should give the Hawks some much needed size and energy off the bench. Wisconsin's Dekker is another option for them.
16. Boston Celtics - Trey Lyles
The Celtics seem to be intent on moving up in the draft. The question is whether their assets (a bunch of solid young players and some middling first-round picks) can get them there. If they stay at No. 16, they'll take the best player available. I think that's Lyles. Not only does he fit a need (Jared Sullinger is their only other 4 under contract next season) but I think he's the best talent still on the board. Lyles could go as high as Indiana at No. 11 or Utah at No. 12.
17. Milwaukee Bucks - Sam Dekker
The Bucks could really use a rim protector, but at No. 17, there just isn't a great one left on the board. Dekker would be a nice fit, however. Jason Kidd seems like the type of coach who could really unleash Dekker. When he plays free, without looking over his shoulder at the bench every time he misses a shot, Dekker can be dominant. He has great size for his position, is a terrific athlete and if he can get more regular on his jump shot, could be a valuable weapon coming off the bench behind Giannis Antetokounmpo.
18. Houston Rockets - Tyus Jones
The Pelicans send their pick to the Rockets as part of the Omer Asik trade. The Rockets have major needs at point guard and there are several worth considering at No. 18. Both Grant and Wright are serious options here. They are experienced, tough and can step in and play right away. But the whispers that the Rockets are in love with Jones won't go away. He clearly has the pedigree, the basketball IQ and the mental toughness to succeed in the NBA. The only real question is whether he has the athleticism to compete.
19. Washington Wizards - Kevon Looney
The Wizards are hoping one of the three young power forwards -- Portis, Lyles or Looney -- falls to them at No. 19. That's their major need going forward and all three players are young and still have upside. Of the three, Looney possesses the most. He's incredibly long, a terrific offensive rebounder and very skilled. He's also the furthest away of the three and questions about a hip he injured before his freshman season at UCLA and a form of sports asthma have caused his stock to slip from the mid-lottery to here. Landing Looney at No. 19 would be a huge win for the Wizards.
20. Toronto Raptors - Rashad Vaughn
With Lou Williams hitting free agency this summer, the Raptors can use some scoring off the bench and few players in this draft get their shot as easily as Vaughn does. A recent workout in Santa Monica where he shot the lights out reiterated that he might be one of the more underrated players in the draft. Grant, Wright, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Christian Wood and Terry Rozier are other players who could fit for Toronto.
21. Dallas Mavericks - Jerian Grant
The Mavs have a huge need at point guard this summer. Rajon Rondo is likely leaving, Raymond Felton has opted out and J.J. Barea is a free agent. While the Mavs, as a playoff contender, likely won't be happy with starting a rookie PG, they will need depth and after four years at Notre Dame, Grant is very capable of stepping in and contributing right away. He's one of the two or three best pick-and-roll guards in the draft and his ability to play multiple positions makes him doubly valuable.
22. Chicago Bulls - Delon Wright
Analytically, Wright looks like a top-10 prospect using a number of different metrics. Chicago would be a perfect landing spot for him. Derrick Rose is healthy again, but both Kirk Hinrich and Aaron Brooks are free agents and the Bulls are in serious need of an upgrade behind Rose. Wright doesn't do any one thing great, but he does just about everything well and his age may be a plus here. He'll be more ready than some to come in and impact the game from training camp. Justin Anderson, R.J. Hunter and Terry Rozier are also possibilities for the Bulls.
23. Portland Trailblazers - R.J. Hunter
The Blazers are looking at potential major defections over the summer. LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Arron Afflalo (assuming he opts out) are all free agents this summer and all could end up elsewhere. The Blazers probably can't find an Aldridge replacement in the draft at 23. But there are several intriguing 2-guards who could fit here. Of that group, Hunter has the most upside. He's a terrific shooter, has a high basketball IQ and can be a playmaker as well as a shooter. Justin Anderson and Montrezl Harrell are other options for the Blazers.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers - Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Hollis-Jefferson is a jump shot away from being a lottery pick. His combination of size, athleticism and elite defensive abilities make him a very strong option for the Cavs. As LeBron James gets older, having someone who can come in off the bench and ramp up the defense and energy is a major plus. And if Hollis-Jefferson ever starts hitting jump shots? He could be a star. Justin Anderson, Montrezl Harrell, Terry Rozier and Christian Wood could all be nice picks here as well.
25. Memphis Grizzlies - Justin Anderson
The Grizzlies are another team that could really use some shot blocking and might be the team willing to gamble on Washington's Robert Upshaw hoping that a stable, veteran locker room could help him become who he needs to be. But I also could see the Grizzlies going after Anderson, a tough, athletic wing who shot 45 percent from 3 as a junior. He's a high-character guy and as multiple playoff teams showed us this summer, you can never have enough shooting. Christian Wood is another possibility in Memphis.
26. San Antonio Spurs - Montrezl Harrell
Harrell is undersized, but he's long, explosive athletically and when he's focused, can play with great energy and motor. The question is keeping him focused. A veteran team like the Spurs with a terrific culture and work ethic could be just the thing for Harrell. The Spurs could certainly use the help in the frontcourt.
27. Los Angeles Lakers - Joseph Young
The Lakers had great success with Jordan Clarkson last season, and I think they could have similar success taking a chance on Young here. I believe both guards could play together in the backcourt because of Clarkson's size at the 1. Young brings something to the table that the Lakers desperately need: shooting. And his ability to get his own shot anywhere on the floor also will be intriguing. Terry Rozier is another possibility here.
28. Boston Celtics - Christian Wood
The Celtics are in definite need of shot blocking and athleticism in their frontcourt. Wood is raw and can be a bit flaky, but his talent is off the charts and Danny Ainge is the sort of GM willing to take those risks. If Wood every gets his act together, he could be the steal of the draft. Chris McCullough and Robert Upshaw are other possibilities.
29. Brooklyn Nets - Jarell Martin
Martin is a great athlete, but his lack of elite size, length or shooting ability have given him the dreaded "tweener" label. Still, the talent is there and the Nets could use his versatility to help them at both the 3 and 4.
30. Golden State Warriors - Chris McCullough
This is a value pick by the Warriors. The Warriors have a great development program and a player like McCullough would be a perfect fit. McCullough, had he not torn his ACL or had he stayed in school, would likely have been a late lottery to mid-first-round pick. His athleticism, shot-blocking ability and versatility make him intriguing to the Warriors, who can afford to develop him slowly.
