You know when you compare someone to the greatest shooter of all-time, then it kinda loses it's luster?
Chad Ford's Top 100 - 2015
Top 100 Draft Prospects
RK PLAYER NAME AGE POS HT WT SCHOOL/COUNTRY PROJECTION
1 Karl-Anthony Towns 19 C 6-11 250 Kentucky Top 5 Pick
June 18 Update: No prospect in the draft has a stronger combination of size and skill for his position. Towns has the potential to be a dominant 4 and 5 in the NBA on both sides of the floor.
May 18 Update: Towns didn't show up to the combine. No interviews, no medical, no measurements, nothing. And his absence won't do anything to hurt his draft stock. In fact, of the roughly 100 NBA front-office people and scouts I spoke with over the past week in Chicago, all but a small handful of them had Towns as the No. 1 pick. Barring a late injury (see Joel Embiid last year) he's looking more and more like a lock to be the No. 1 pick.
Apr 29 Update: Towns continues to tighten his grip on the No. 1 pick since we last covered him. In an informal poll of NBA scouts and GMs from 28 of the 30 teams in the league, the large majority of them had him No. 1 on their boards. While it doesn't rule out Okafor or Russell or Mudiay going No. 1, Towns probably is going to have to struggle in workouts, have an undisclosed injury that shows up in the medical testing at the combine or have some off-the-court issue to lose his grip. In other words, this spot is his to lose, regardless of which team gets the No. 1 pick.
Apr 9 Update: Towns has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Towns has been ranked in our Top 3 all year and is currently No. 1 on our Big Board. The move to the draft is a no-brainer. Blessed with size, agility, and the ability to dominate the game on both ends of the floor, he's the most complete big man in the draft and should go either 1 or 2 on draft night.
Apr 8 Update: NBA scouts came very close to getting the matchup they've pined for all season: Towns vs. Jahlil Okafor in the NCAA championship game. Alas, Kentucky fell to Wisconsin in the Final Four, meaning the next time we see these two go head-to-head will be in the NBA. Towns did just enough in the tournament, especially in a big game against Notre Dame, to push ahead of Okafor for the top spot on our Big Board. He's been making that push up the board for the past two months, with more and more NBA teams defecting from Okafor's bandwagon onto Towns'. Now that the season is over, assuming Towns declares for the draft, he's got the edge over Okafor for the No. 1 pick. He's more athletic, a better rim-protector and a much better free throw shooter. Okafor is more polished offensively, but that's the only real edge he has right now. In virtually every scenario on our Lottery Mock Draft, Towns is now going No. 1.
Mar 31 Update: What a difference one game made for Towns. After a miserable one-point outing in 13 minutes against West Virginia -- that had folks seriously questioning why Towns was being mentioned as a potential No. 1 pick -- the freshman center saved Kentucky's season against Notre Dame, scoring a career-high 25 points on 10-for-13 shooting in 25 minutes (17 points on 8-for-8 shooting in the second half) to go with 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and a block. Towns scored more field goals than the rest of Kentucky's starting five combined. This was Towns' signature game and the one scouts will be referring to when they make their case to GMs that he should go No. 1 ahead of Duke's Jahlil Okafor. That case was made by scouts to me this weekend and for the first time this season. As a result, Towns has ascended to No. 1 on our Top 100. Now every scout in the NBA is praying that UK and Duke meet in the championship game so that Towns and Okafor get to battle it out on the floor to help settle who will be the top pick in the draft.
Mar 23 Update: Karl-Anthony Towns had one of the best games of his career in the opening round versus Hampton, scoring 21 points, grabbing 11 rebounds and blocking three shots in 25 minutes. But it was against Hampton, so take that with a slight grain of salt. Versus Cincinnati, he was still very solid scoring eight points, grabbing seven rebounds and blocking three more shots in 21 minutes. Physical teams can slow down Towns a bit which is a worry, but overall he had a very strong game against one of the physically toughest opponents he's going to encounter. As far as draft stock goes, nothing's changed. He's still very much in the mix for the No. 1 pick.
Mar 16 Update: Towns is strongly in the mix for the No. 1 pick in the draft despite averaging less than 10 PPG for Kentucky. He's big, mobile, can score both in the paint and facing the basket, and he's proved to be an elite shot-blocker and rebounder this season. Prospects like him don't come along often.
Mar 11 Update: For most of the season, the only real debate between Towns and Okafor centered on defense versus offense. Towns was the superior defender, Okafor the superior offensive player. However, in the past month, Towns has made tremendous strides offensively while still dominating the defensive side of the ball. In the last 10 games, Towns has averaged 13.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG and 2.5 BPG in just 24 MPG for Kentucky. During that stretch, he's shooting a crazy 50-for-68 from the field (74 percent) and 29-for-33 from the free-throw line (88 percent). He has clearly emerged as the best offensive weapon on this undefeated Kentucky team despite his age.
His ability to stretch the floor, protect the rim and make free throws may make up for his lack of low-post polish (though he's not too shabby there, either). A huge tournament for Towns, or even more importantly, a win in a one-on-one showdown with Okafor, might be all he needs to push him into the top spot.
Feb 24 Update: Slowly but surely, Towns continues to make a serious case for the No. 1 pick. Kentucky's platoon system and a number of blowouts have limited his minutes and artificially lowered his stats. Still, he has put up some huge games lately: 19 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks against Florida; 12 points, 13 rebounds and 2 blocks against LSU; and 19 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocks in 21 minutes against Auburn. In his past six games, Towns is averaging 13 points, 9 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 24 minutes per game, while shooting 64 percent from the field. He has also made 17 of 18 free throws -- a key stat for a big man.
From an analytics standpoint, Towns has caught Jahlil Okafor and even surpassed him in some systems, including Kevin Pelton's. Towns is a little bigger than Okafor, more athletic, a better defender and a better shot-blocker, but can Towns make the case that he's the better long-term prospect? I've spoken to some general managers over the past week who are starting to think he might be. In short, with the rise of Towns and D'Angelo Russell, Okafor's grip on the No. 1 pick isn't nearly as tight as it was a month ago.
Feb 11 Update: After a multiweek scoring drought at the start of 2015, when Towns appeared to be smashing into the freshman wall, he has broken out of it with strong performances against Alabama, Georgia, Florida and LSU. His past three games have been especially great, including a 15-point, 13-rebound, two-block performance against Georgia; 19 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks against Florida; and 12 points, 13 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks against LSU on Tuesday. His strong play of late reminds scouts why they've been so high on him all season. While he lacks the low-post offensive polish of Okafor, he's more versatile offensively and a better defender. He's not a bad consolation prize for the team that doesn't get the No. 1 pick.
Jan 28 Update: Pelton and I spilled some digital ink on Towns on Friday. Again, there's very little that has changed. Teams interested in Towns aren't particularly deterred by his stats right now (he scored just four points in 12 minutes versus South Carolina on Saturday). It's his rebounding and especially his shot-blocking, combined with soft hands and a good perimeter jumper, that intrigue them. As Pelton and I discussed, think of Towns as a bigger version of Al Horford. There have been some concerns about Towns' toughness, and that helped explain why he got just 12 minutes in a very physical game against South Carolina. Those concerns aren't anything new and could keep Towns from ever seriously challenging Okafor for the No. 1 pick.
Jan 22 Update: While Big Board No. 1 Jahlil Okafor is a more dominating presence offensively, Towns has been equally good defensively for Kentucky this season. He's an elite shot-blocker and a very good rebounder who has the agility to get out and guard both 4s and 5s at the NBA level. He's a much more fluid athlete than Okafor, which I think largely accounts for his superior defense.
Offensively, Towns hasn't been as dominant. He lacks Okafor's footwork around the basket and, at times, he lacks Okafor's toughness when play gets physical. He has a nasty habit of fading away on his shots in the paint too often. But I think the platoon Kentucky runs, combined with guards who love to shoot first and ask questions later (I'm looking at you, Harrison twins), play a larger role in his uneven offensively play.
The potential is there. Towns has soft hands, a high basketball IQ and, while he hasn't totally shown it this season, he can spread the floor and has range out to the NBA 3-point line. His ability to play both the 4 and 5 at the next level should be very attractive to teams drafting high.
Kevin Pelton: Towns currently sits ninth on my board in terms of projected WARP, but he's the leader among guys who are legitimately in contention for the top pick. (As noted last week, Okafor has performed better, but his projection has regressed more to the mean because of his high 2-point percentage.)
The numbers play out basically like you'd expect. Towns is ahead of Okafor defensively, and rebounding and shot-blocking (his 14.0 percent block rate ranks fifth in the country, per KenPom.com) are currently his two biggest statistical strengths. But he's not as involved in the balanced UK offense, and his 2-point percentage (.510) is on the low side for an NBA-bound big man.
Jan 6 Update: Towns has been pretty quiet offensively for Kentucky. He hasn't made more than three field goals in a game in a month and had zero against North Carolina. However, he continues to be a beast on the boards, for the most part, and an elite shot-blocker. Scouts don't seem to be deterred by Towns' offensive slump. He's playing in a unique setting, surrounded by eight players who all can score. While his case for being the No. 1 pick might be slipping, he still looks like a lock for the top four.
Dec 23 Update: Towns is the consensus No. 1 UK player on the board despite the fact that he hasn't necessarily had a breakout season offensively. Against UCLA he posted 10 rebounds and two blocks in 20 minutes of play. However, he scored just four points on 2-for-5 shooting. Towns is a more skilled offensive player than he's shown at Kentucky. He's been especially quiet lately on offense, scoring just two points against North Carolina and six points versus Columbia.
Some of that is on the Harrison twins, Andrew and Aaron. They both tend to dominate the ball, so Towns doesn't get nearly as many touches as he deserves. And some of it is on Towns for not being as aggressive as he could be when he does get the ball. Defensively, he's been great as both a rebounder and a shot-blocker. While most NBA scouts and GMs prefer Duke's Jahlil Okafor over Towns right now for the top pick, there are some who believe Towns has bigger upside and could end up surpassing Okafor on draft night.
"You put Towns on any other team in college basketball, maybe with the exception of Duke, and everyone is talking about him as a legitimate player of the year candidate," one GM said. "His stats, or lack thereof, aren't an issue of talent, it's an issue of so much talent on the floor that he can take a back seat."
Dec 17 Update: Towns scored just two points in UK's win over North Carolina on Saturday. It was quite possibly his least impressive performance of the season, matched up against several solid bigs on the Tar Heels. As Willie Cauley-Stein continues to emerge, Towns has faded just a bit. But nothing scouts have seen from Towns has deterred them. A small handful now believe he's the best prospect in the draft. He's more raw than Okafor, but he's a better athlete, leaving him more upside. The rest have him in their top 5 and see him as a two-way player who can impact the game on both ends. Barring an injury, he looks like close to a lock for the top 3.
Dec 2 Update: John Calipari's platoon system is artificially limiting Towns' minutes and stats. But when you dig a little deeper, he's having an extraordinary season -- especially on the defensive end. His 18.2 rebound rate is the best in the country among freshmen, and he's averaging an impressive 3 blocks per game in just under 19 minutes a game. While it will be hard for Towns to keep up with Okafor in sheer production, every scout who has seen Kentucky play this season has come to the same conclusion. Towns is not only the best player on UK right now but also a legit contender for the No. 1 pick.
Nov 19 Update: vs. KU: 9 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 blocks, 4-for-8 shooting in 18 minutes
After a couple of shaky outings, Towns had the best game of his early career versus Kansas. Not only was he a shot-blocking machine, but he showed the kind of touch around the basket (including an impressive hook shot with his off hand) that has scouts drooling. He's not playing as dominant a brand of basketball as Okafor, but he's a better athlete and a little more skilled on the perimeter. If the draft were held today, Okafor and Emmanuel Mudiay would both probably go ahead of him. But it's a long season -- if Towns continues to improve and stop rushing things, he's still got a chance to be in the mix.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: C- Towns looked absolutely dominant in the exhibition season, but he's been less impressive in his first two games, averaging 5.5 PPG on 31 percent shooting. He has grabbed 6.5 RPG and is averaging 1.5 BPG in just 16 MPG, however this production is far less than what we expected. He has all the tools to be a No. 1 pick, but his production will have to increase pretty dramatically.
Oct 31 Update: Scouts have been very high on Towns since he participated in the Nike Hoop Summit at age 17 for the international team. He's gone on to wow scouts during a Kentucky trip to the Bahamas and at the NBA pro combine John Calipari put on in October. Not only does he look like the best pro prospect on UK, he should give Okafor a run for the No. 1 pick. While he's not quite as strong or polished as Okafor is in the post, Towns has a perimeter game, passing and ballhandling skills that make him very versatile. A team that needs more of a stretch 4 might consider Towns ahead of Okafor.
Oct 12 Update: Of the scouts and GMs I spoke with, all of them agree that Towns is the best NBA prospect on the team. "He's huge and so skilled," one GM said. "I think he's got a chance to be a more mature version of DeMarcus Cousins."
Towns also measured the part, standing 6-foot-11 in shoes with a terrific 7-foot-3 wingspan and 9-foot-1 standing reach. He also showed off an impressive 36.5-inch max vertical and put up impressive scores for a big man in the agility drills.
Sept. 9 Update: Towns had his first coming out party for the Wildcats on a trip to the Bahamas this summer. He averaged 11 PPG and 6.5 RPG in just 20 MPG for the Wildcats. He looked like he had the potential to be a dominant low post player in college. He'll fight for minutes with Willie Cauley-Stein, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee and Trey Lyles, but after watching UK for six games, he clearly looked like the best player on the floor. John Calipari isn't going to bury that kind of talent.
July 16 Update: Scouts love Towns, who has terrific skills for a player of his size. Towns can shoot from anywhere on the floor and plays with a pretty high basketball IQ. Still, questions abound about his toughness. And his situation at Kentucky -- potentially buried behind Willie Cauley-Stein and Dakari Johnson -- makes his position near the top of the board tenuous. It remains unclear whether Towns will get the playing time needed to justify such a high selection.
June 27 Update: Towns has the size and agility to make a run at No. 1 -- if he gets minutes. Scouts compare him to a young, less volatile DeMarcus Cousins. Towns can score both inside and out and has been a favorite of scouts for the past couple of years. But he's going to a loaded Kentucky team that also has Willie Cauley-Stein and Dakari Johnson at center. Will he be able to get the minutes he needs to make his case for a top pick? Towns has more upside than either player, but lacks the experience.
April 15 Update: Towns made scouts swoon last year when he played for the international team. His play this year was a little more uneven -- he had just six points and two rebounds, mostly because of foul trouble -- but there is so much to like in Towns' game. He's a fluid big man with terrific size, and he's very skilled. He has shooting range all the way out to the 3-point line and isn't afraid to go out there and take those shots. He also can score in the paint and be a good rebounder and shot-blocker when he focuses.
Scouts worry a bit about his toughness; they want to see him fight in the paint more. But he's a third big in this draft who has some serious offensive skills. How often do three guys like that come along in the same class? If John Calipari plays him the same way he did DeMarcus Cousins, Towns might have a shot at going No. 1.
2 D'Angelo Russell 19 PG 6-5 193 Ohio State Top 5 Pick
June 18 Update: From an offensive point of view, there isn't a more complete guard in the draft. Russell is equally adept at stroking the long ball and getting to the basket. He shot 62 percent at the rim this season and 41 percent from 3, according to Hoops-Math.com.
May 18 Update: Russell was the highest-ranked player on our Big Board to show up in Chicago. He did interviews with a couple of teams, went through the medical testing and did the measurements portion, where he measured an impressive 6-foot-5 with a 6-9.75 wingspan. Those are very good numbers for a point guard. And despite all the hand- wringing about his position, virtually every team I spoke with has him ranked as a point guard. "He's the most creative passer in the draft," one GM said. "The way he sees the floor is special. I have no doubt he'll be a point guard in our league." Russell is also one of the more impressive people you'll meet in the pre-draft setting. He's going to nail the interview portion. The Russell-Emmanuel Mudiay debate is still raging, by the way, but based on dozens of conversations I had with NBA front offices, it sounds like the majority (roughly a 60-40 split) have Russell ranked ahead of Mudiay. Thus, he's moved up one spot on our Big Board and depending on how the draft order falls Tuesday night, could go as high as No. 2.
May 16 Update: Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell is the highest-ranked player participating in the combine. He measured 6-3¼ in socks and 6-5 in shoes. He had a huge 6-9¾ wingspan and better than average 8-6 standing reach. Those are very good numbers if you project Russell as a point guard and just a bit below average as a shooting guard.
Apr 29 Update: Russell gave NBA GMs a little bit of a scare when he waited until the last second to declare for the draft. There are a handful of GMs out there who believe he has the best overall game of any player in the draft. No one doubts his shooting ability or feel for the game. What NBA teams will be looking for in workouts is his athleticism. Can he be more explosive than he showed as a freshman at Ohio State?
Apr 8 Update: Russell went out of the NCAA tournament with a whimper against Arizona in the second round, and from the sound of things, might have damaged his draft stock. Facing an elite wing defender in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Russell's lack of explosive athleticism and quickness were evident. While he has an incredible shooting touch and excellent floor vision, NBA front offices put a high value on superior athletic skills. Russell has just about everything else, but he does lack the pop several other top players on our board have. Look for him to be drafted in the Nos. 3-to-6 range.
Mar 23 Update: It was a tale of two very different games for Russell in the tournament. Against VCU in the opening round, Russell was at his best offensively, scoring 28 points, shooting 4-for-7 from 3 and doing just about whatever he wanted out there. His feel for the game is remarkable and when his shots are dropping, he looks like a James Harden-esque combo guard who can score from anywhere. Alas, against Arizona's pesky defense led by Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, he couldn't get anything going. He shot just 3-for-19 from the field and 1-for-7 from 3 and was often forced to take long, off-balance jumpers. While his shooting stroke left him, he did make up for it in other ways. He had six assists and just one turnover, seven rebounds and showed, when his shot isn't falling, he can help his team in a myriad of other ways. I don't think the tournament really helped or hurt Russell. All of the good and bad that scouts have seen all season were on display. Scouts love the stroke, basketball IQ and competitiveness and they know that his lack of elite athleticism can make him vulnerable to defenders like Hollis-Jefferson or (in his other bad game this year against UNC) players like J.P. Tokoto. He should be a lock as a top-five pick if he declares.
Mar 17 Update: Russell has challenged Okafor as the best freshman in the country this season, and he is in the running for the No. 1 pick in the draft. He's a unique prospect who sees the floor like a point guard, but he is a considerable scoring threat from anywhere on the floor. He reminds me a bit of James Harden. He's a smooth athlete with unlimited range on his jumper. He lacks NBA strength and explosive athleticism, but the basketball IQ is so high, it doesn't really affect his game.
Mar 11 Update: Russell was the hot name when we put together Big Board 6.0. His slide from No. 3 to No. 4 is a small one and has less to do with his play and more to do with the recent infatuation scouts have with Towns and Mudiay. However, it must be said that Russell's play of late hasn't been quite up to par. Since February, Russell is shooting just 20-for-58 from beyond the arc (34 percent), has 28 turnovers and Ohio State has gone just 5-4 in that stretch. He's still the most lethal wing scorer in the draft -- and he's asked to shoulder a huge load at Ohio State -- but he hasn't been great of late and to make the move to No. 1, he's got to be great.
Feb 11 Update: Russell has been the hottest name in the draft in the past month, and he's suddenly looking like a serious contender to be the first guard off the board (and perhaps even the No.1 pick). On Sunday, versus Rutgers, Russell pulled off his first triple-double of the season, with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. It was the third time this month he has grabbed 10 or more rebounds and the second time in the past few weeks that he has had 10 or more assists in a game. The decision between Mudiay (an athletic, physical guard in the mold of Derrick Rose) and Russell (a smooth, sweet-shooting guard in the mold of James Harden) is going to be a very tough one for teams.
Feb 6 Update: Question: Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell has been the highest riser on Chad Ford's Top 100 the past month. Has he become a legit candidate for the No. 1 pick?
Chad Ford: Yes and no. I think Duke's Jahlil Okafor is the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft right now. Not only has he been arguably the best player in college basketball, but players his size and skill level don't come along very often. As I noted in my column looking at what all 14 teams in the lottery would do if they landed the No. 1 pick, Okafor tops every board.
But Russell is making a strong case for the No. 1 pick. He's the hottest name among NBA scouts and general managers at the moment. He, too, has been a potent offensive weapon as a freshman. He's a terrific scorer, a lethal shooter with deep range on his jump shot and he can really see the floor. Russell is a 6-foot-5 combo guard who makes the game look effortless. For teams with young post prospects like the Philadelphia 76ers and Utah Jazz, he's going to be very tempting. I've moved him up to No. 3 on my Top 100 and he's right there in the mix along with Emmanuel Mudiay, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis.
Kevin, does your analytics big board have him as high as scouts do right now?
Kevin Pelton: Higher. With this week's update, Russell has risen to No. 1 in projected WARP. He's surpassed Okafor as the most valuable freshman in the NCAA, and is actually threatening senior guards Jerian Grant and Delon Wright to become the most valuable player overall by my metrics. When you do that before your 19th birthday -- Russell won't blow out the candles for another three weeks -- you absolutely have to be in the mix for the top pick, in my opinion.
Question: What are Russell's biggest strengths and weaknesses as an NBA prospect?
Ford: There are a number of things that Russell is doing well right now. He has proved to be a terrific, efficient scorer despite the fact that defenses in the Big Ten are keying in on him every night as Ohio State's only real weapon on offense. Russell takes 45 percent of his shots from 3-point range and is hitting a terrific 45 percent. His 2-point jumpers are a little low at 40 percent, but his field goal percentage at the rim jumps back up to 65 percent. In short, he can score from anywhere on the floor.
Teams are also thrilled with the idea that at 6-5, he could be a point guard at the next level. Russell has an assist ratio of 21.8 percent. It's not quite as high as some of the other elite point guards in the draft like Utah's Wright or Notre Dame's Grant, but Russell also plays primarily off the ball for Ohio State. Senior Shannon Scott runs the show for them.
Teams love big point guards and they love guards who can shoot the ball, and Russell's doing both right now. As far as weaknesses? He can be a little turnover prone (a little over 11 percent of his possessions end in a turnover) and he hasn't been a lockdown defender. But offensively, he's the whole package.
Pelton: I would say I'm a little more skeptical of Russell offensively. Statistically, his biggest weakness is that he gets to the free throw line relatively rarely -- 4.7 times per game -- and he could definitely stand to take fewer midrange jumpers.
On the positive side of the ledger, you didn't mention rebounding. Because of his size, Russell is pulling down 6.9 boards per 40 minutes, which is good for a guard and great if he plays the point.
Question: How does Russell compare to other combo guards in the NBA and in this year's draft?
Ford: The NBA is trend-focused and right now everyone is gushing over the Splash Brothers in Golden State -- Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Scouts are out there looking for the next Curry, and Russell may be as close as anyone is going to get in this draft. I'm not sure Russell is that pure a shooter (who is?) but there are some similarities there. I also think Russell has a little James Harden in him. He's not the most explosive athlete in the gym, but he's a smooth athlete who uses a combination of physical tools and basketball IQ to get wherever he wants on the floor. As far as players in this year's draft, I think the only guard on par with him is Mudiay -- and they are very different players. Mudiay is all about power and athleticism -- he's the Derrick Rose to Russell's Curry.
Pelton: It's tough for me to compare Russell to Mudiay without the benefit of college stats, but there's definitely nobody in the NCAA who really compares to him. The best point guards on my board are smaller players like Duke's Tyus Jones. Wright is somewhat similar in terms of versatility, but not anywhere close to Russell as a shooter.
Besides Harden, the other name that's come up a lot in comparisons is Manu Ginobili. All three are lefty shooting guards who play more like point guards. The biggest difference between Russell and those NBA All-Stars is that he has gotten to the basket less frequently. Harden made an impressive 57.6 percent of his 2-point attempts as a freshman at Arizona State, compared to 49.4 percent for Russell. We obviously don't have any college stats for Ginobili, but he has made 50.0 percent of his 2s in his NBA career. So Russell will have to improve in that regard to justify the comparisons.
Jan 20 Update: The first four picks have remained remarkably consistent all season. Jahlil Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis have been ranked 1-4, in that order, since our first Big Board debuted in July. UCLA's Kevon Looney took over the fifth spot in November and there hasn't been a serious challenger to that top 5 until now, but more and more GMs and scouts are saying Russell is the prospect with the best chance of cracking the top 5.
Why is Russell such an interesting prospect? Scouts believe he has the tools to excel at both the 1 and the 2 in the NBA. He is a smooth scorer who can score both inside and outside and he's a got the handle and court vision to be a terrific playmaker in the NBA someday.
Projecting him as a point guard makes him especially interesting to scouts who are looking for alternatives to Mudiay, as they believe Mudiay will be gone in the first three picks.
"There's so much to love about his game," one GM told ESPN.com about Russell. "Even when he has a bad game, it looks like a good one because every time the ball leaves his lands, it looks like it's going in. He plays with such great confidence and has a terrific feel. I think he could be a James Harden-type player at the next level. That's what kind of scorer and playmaker he could be."
Said another GM: "We thought for a while we would have a great chance of landing him in the late lottery. But we've given up. He's too good. After Okafor, Mudiay and Towns are all off the board, I think he'll be heavily in the conversation."
We've moved Russell to No. 6 on our Top 100, and there's still room to climb.
Jan 6 Update: Ohio State has come back down to earth, but scouts still are enamored with Russell, a silky smooth combo guard who looks more and more like he'll be able to play both the 1 and the 2 in the NBA someday. He had a career-high nine assists against Miami (Ohio) and has recorded at least four assists in 13 of the 15 games he has played this season.
Dec 31 Update: Russell plays shooting guard for Ohio State but I recently changed him to point guard after virtually every scout I spoke with said they are evaluating him as a point guard at the next level. He's been one of the most consistent freshmen in the country and, at 6-foot-5 with deep range on his jumper, could be a very intriguing prospect.
Dec 22 Update: Ohio State freshman D'Angelo Russell had one of his toughest outings on Saturday against North Carolina. Russell's jump shot wasn't falling, and he didn't really take over the game the way scouts expected him to. He ended with just 11 points on 4-for-17 shooting, though he did have eight rebounds, five assists and three steals. Still, there seemed to be consensus in the gym that he's a lottery pick. Not everyone sees him as a point guard, but about 75 percent of scouts I spoke with think that's the position he'll ultimately play in the pros.
"He's so smooth," one NBA scout said. "He's got the chance to be a special player. You love big point guards who can shoot it, get to the rim, see the floor and know how to balance all of that. I wish he was a little quicker or more explosive. He might have some issues defensively. But offensively he could be really good in our league."
Dec 17 Update: Scouts are searching everywhere for other potential elite point guards and a handful think Russell can make the transition from the 2 to the 1 at the next level. His 23.1 assist rate ranks third in the Big Ten right now and is essentially on par with Indiana's Yogi Ferrell, though the 3.2 turnovers a game shows Russell can still make some poor decisions. That 44 percent shooting from beyond the arc is another huge draw for scouts who love point guards who can both dish and shoot.
Dec 2 Update: Okafor and Towns are two of the freshmen who are off to red-hot starts, but they aren't the only ones. Russell has been a dominant scorer and playmaker for the Buckeyes and is posting a whopping 34.22 PER in his first five games for OSU. He has coach Thad Matta to thank for some of that. Russell is posting a whopping 25.6 usage rate -- he clearly has the green light from Matta. Russell's 24.3 assist rate is what really excites scouts. This draft is thin on point guards. If Russell can prove to be both a scorer and passer this season, he's a lock to go in the top 10.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: A- The Buckeyes don't have a lot of great scoring options and that creates a terrific opportunity for Russell. He took full advantage of it on Friday, leading Ohio State in scoring with 16 points. He also had six assists, four rebounds and three steals and turned the ball over only once. Those six assists will especially stand out to scouts. A number of them believe Russell could play point guard in the NBA someday. If he can prove that this season at Ohio State, he'll move up another 10 spots on our Board.
Nov 6 Update: A number of scouts think Russell could be a sleeper in this draft. Although he was ranked No. 13 overall in the ESPN 100 as a high school senior, he was the top-ranked shooting guard, and he's starting on a team in desperate need of scoring. Russell has the talent to live up to the hype. He has deep range on his jumper, and has the floor vision and passing skills to play some point. He needs to get stronger, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the lottery by midseason if he takes over this Buckeyes squad.
Sept 6 Update: The Buckeyes are in desperate need of scoring and that's Russell's speciality. While he may not be the highest rated freshman in his class, he comes to a situation where he should be able to put up big numbers right away. If he plays hard all the time, adds strength and keeps knocking down those jumpers, he has a shot at being a lottery pick.
3 Jahlil Okafor 19 C 6-11 275 Duke Top 5 Pick
June 18 Update: Okafor still is a highly coveted prospect but has lost ground in recent weeks to both Towns and Russell. His style of play is the major culprit. Teams are looking for versatility, playmaking, shooting and rim protection. While Okafor has the most polished low-post game in the draft with excellent size and length for his position, he doesn't check any of the "en vogue" boxes at the moment.
May 18 Update: Okafor also skipped the combine completely. It was a small surprise given feedback from his camp that he's in the best shape of his life (an ongoing concern for scouts) and that he could've at least shown off a slimmed-down physique in testing. The scouts who still had Okafor No. 1 felt there was one team that might lean Okafor over Towns -- the Minnesota Timberwolves. Given that they have the best shot (25 percent) of landing the No. 1 pick on Tuesday, there's a chance that Okafor could still end up No. 1. Okafor will hold a workout for NBA teams in Santa Barbara, California, on Thursday. If he's really in great shape and shows more explosiveness, he'll help himself. I'll be in Santa Barbara to give a full report.
Apr 29 Update: Okafor's stock hasn't slid as much as Towns has simply surpassed him based on his two-way playing ability and what is perceived as a better fit in the modern NBA offense. But Okafor still is highly regarded by scouts and GMs. While he's highly unlikely to participate in the 5-on-5 portion of the draft combine, he needs to come in terrific shape, show some explosion and score well in the athletic testing portion of the event. That could help him hold on to the No. 2 spot.
Apr 9 Update: Okafor has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Okafor began the season as the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft. While he's been even better than advertised offensively -- the most polished big man we've seen in some time -- his pedestrian defense and lack of explosive athleticism have put his No. 1 status in doubt. He still has a shot at it, but he's more Likely to go No. 2 or 3
Apr 8 Update: Okafor's stock slid a bit this past month, despite the fact he and three other freshmen just led the Blue Devils to a national title. After a dominant first weekend, when he dropped 21 points on Robert Morris and 26 points on San Diego State, he cooled down considerably. He had 10 or fewer points in three of the Blue Devils' four final tourney games, including 10 points and just three rebounds in 22 minutes versus Frank Kaminsky and Wisconsin. Foul trouble plagued Okafor in the title game, but so did his inability to guard the quicker, more agile Kaminsky. He did hit two key buckets for Duke down the stretch, however. But most of this tournament talk doesn't matter. Okafor is still the most polished offensive big man in the country. Towns has the distinct edge over Okafor for the No. 1 pick, but there are scenarios in which Okafor goes No. 1. He's unlikely to fall past No. 3.
Mar 31 Update: Prior to the weekend, Okafor had been No. 1 all season in our Top 100. However, his grip has been slipping for a while and, on Sunday, I moved him to No. 2 after extensive feedback from scouts this weekend. Okafor is still No. 1 on many NBA boards, but I believe he's no longer No. 1 on the majority of them. This weekend he had just six points and eight rebounds against Utah on Friday and clearly struggled with the length of Utah freshman Jakob Poeltl. On Sunday, he struggled a bit with the size and strength of Gonzaga big man Przemek Karnowski, scoring just nine points on 4-for-10 shooting.
The bigger issue, however, is Okafor's continued mediocre defensive play. He doesn't play with the urgency of other elite players on the floor and it's scaring NBA teams a bit. He's clearly the most polished offensive big man to come along in a while. But will he have the motor and toughness to do the job on both ends?
"I think in a head-to-head matchup, Towns could defend Okafor, but I don't think Okafor could defend Towns," said an NBA scout. "As good as Okafor is offensively, head-to-head, I think Towns would come out ahead."
Scouts and GMs are praying that next Monday they'll get to find out for themselves.
Mar 23 Update: Okafor has been No. 1 all year in our Top 100. While his grip on the title of consensus No. 1 pick has loosened considerably thanks to the play of Karl-Anthony Towns, Okafor's performance continues to give him the slight lead among NBA scouts and GMs for the No. 1 pick. Okafor remains the most offensively dominant big man to come into the draft in a while. He's averaging 23.5 PPG and has shot a crazy 21-for-28 from the field during the tournament. He's even picked things up on the rim protection end - he blocked two shots against Robert Morris and three against San Diego State. But his real value is offensively where he combines a huge body, great footwork and a soft touch around the basket. Some scouts prefer Karl-Anthony Towns because he's a more complete player. He's clearly better at that defensive end. But Okafor is so good offensively; he's going to be tough for NBA teams to pass on.
Mar 19 Update: Okafor has been ranked No. 1 on our Big Board all season and might be the most dominant freshman big man I've scouted on the offensive end. He has low-post footwork that many veteran NBA bigs lack. The only concern about him is his lack of elite athleticism. It doesn't hurt him offensively, but he can struggle defensively at times and he isn't an elite rim protector.
Mar 11 Update: As we noted in the intro, Okafor's grip on the No. 1 pick continues to loosen. He's been battling an ankle injury for the past few weeks, but that's not the reason. He's still put up some monster games, such as a recent 30-point, 9-rebound effort against Virginia Tech and 13-point, 14-rebound performance against Syracuse. Okafor remains the most polished offensive freshman big man we've seen in a decade.
The issue is that Towns is not only a superior defender, but he's catching up on the offensive end. Just a little over half of the NBA scouts and GMs I spoke with have Okafor No. 1 right now. There isn't a GM alive who isn't praying that Okafor will meet Towns one-on-one in the NCAA tournament. Given the seedings, it likely won't happen until the Final Four, but if it does, it will add another major level of intrigue to what is, already, the best sporting event in the world.
Feb 11 Update: Okafor continues to destroy opponents. On Saturday, he smashed Notre Dame with 20 points, 10 rebounds, 2 steals and a block in just 22 minutes. In his past two games, he has shot 14-for-16 from the field. Scouts were especially excited to see Okafor play more aggressively on defense the past few games. As I reported last week, Okafor continues to be the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft. There's still time for that to change, but as of now he's got a pretty firm grip.
Jan 28 Update: Kevin Pelton and I broke down Okafor less than two weeks ago. Nothing has really changed -- Okafor is by far the hands-down favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the draft. Since Kevin and I wrote last, he had 18 points and 7 rebounds in a win over Louisville followed by 14 points and 5 assists in a win over Pittsburgh and 17 points and 10 rebounds in a victory at St. John's on Sunday. While scouts wish his rebounding, shot-blocking numbers and overall defense were better, offensively he's the best big on our Board.
Jan 15 Update: Chad, we're halfway through the college season, and Jahlil Okafor remains atop your draft board. It's hard to say he's done anything to dissuade that opinion. Okafor has been dominant offensively for a team that was undefeated against a challenging schedule until an unexpected two-game losing streak. He's not currently at the top of my rankings of projected WARP (he's sixth, in fact), but there's actually a good explanation for that. The system doesn't believe anyone can be as good at finishing as Okafor has been.
As of now, Okafor's 2-point percentage would be the second-best by a major-conference player to average at least 15 points per game in College Basketball Reference's database (back to 1997-9, trailing only Villanova's Michael Bradley in 2000-01 (.727). And Bradley did that as a fourth-year transfer. If we narrow the list to freshmen, Okafor is No. 1 by a huge margin over Arizona State's Ike Diogu (.625 in 2002-03). As the season goes on, Okafor's 2-point percentage won't be regressed as heavily to the mean, and he should continue to climb up the rankings.
As a result, I'd take him No. 1 overall at this point. Safe to assume you agree?
Chad Ford: The Big Board is a reflection of the consensus of two dozen or so NBA scouts and GMs that I speak with. He's been No. 1 on our Big Board since we released the 1.0 in July. Nothing has changed. If anything, he's strengthened the hold on No. 1. Of the dozen or so GMs and scouts I spoke with this past weekend, all of them had Okafor No. 1 on their board. In this day and age, it's hard to live up to the hype. Fans were deeply disappointed in Andrew Wiggins last season, Nerlens Noel (our No. 1 prospect in 2013), and, believe it or not, Anthony Davis in 2012. All of them screamed OVERRATED to me all season.
Okafor, however, has really lived up to the hype as one of the most polished low post prospects we've seen come into college ball as a freshman. He has incredible hands, excellent footwork in the paint and a soft touch. You just don't find guys like that every day. Maybe once a decade. Clearly, the numbers are supporting that.
Oh, and by the way, I love that WARP has some cynicism programmed into it. Reminds me of TARS, the robot in "Interstellar," and every single NBA scout not named Tony Ronzone that I know.
Jan 6 Update: Okafor is one of the most dominant freshman big men I've ever seen. He's absolutely destroying defenses right now. In his past five games, he's averaging 23.2 PPG and 10.4 RPG while shooting a crazy 74 percent from the floor. Okafor now leads all players in the NCAA in PER. While scouts can nitpick about his pedestrian defense, the truth is that players his size with offensive polish come around once in a decade. He might never be Anthony Davis because of his lack of elite athleticism, but he looks like a lock to be a 20-and-10 guy in the NBA someday.
Dec 17 Update: Okafor had one of the most impressive performances of the year on Monday, scoring 25 points and grabbing 20 rebounds against Elon. It's Elon, so everyone is taking Okafor's domination with a grain of salt. But the pattern for the first six weeks of the season has been pretty clear. Okafor is a polished, even dominant, low-post scorer, an above-average rebounder and one of the most NBA-ready prospects in the draft. He ranks second in the NCAA in PER with an impressive 37.02. His lack of elite athleticism hinders his ceiling somewhat, but virtually every scout I spoke with still has him No. 1 on their board and see him as a sure thing. He's this year's Jabari Parker.
Dec 2 Update: Okafor has definitely lived up to the hype early in the season. He's shooting 74 percent from the field at the rim and an impressive 41 percent on his 2-point jumpers. His footwork, soft hands and poise in the paint have all been extraordinary. There hasn't been a freshman big man this polished offensively in a while. One small area of concern is on the defensive side of things. Okafor's 14.5 rebounding rate is solid, but not elite. For someone so big and strong, he should be grabbing more boards. However, he remains the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft. Mudiay and Towns (and possibly Porzingis) will give him a serious run, but for now he's on top of the Big Board of every NBA exec I spoke with.
Nov 19 Update: vs. MSU: 17 points, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 2 turnovers, 8-for-10 shooting in 30 minutes
On a night when many of the top prospects on our Big Board failed to live up to the hype, Okafor lived up to it and then some. He scored a quick eight points out of the gate for Duke, showing incredible hands, quick feet and a soft touch around the rim. Michigan State didn't really have anyone to guard him, but still, he has a rare combination of size, length, power, skill and quickness. He's not an explosive leaper and his defense still isn't up to par, but Okafor looks like the overwhelming early favorite to be the No. 1 pick. Every single GM and scout I spoke to on Tuesday (around 30 overall) had him atop their board.
"He's special," one GM said. "There are very few holes in his game and I think he's going to consistently dominate all year. It's hard for me to imagine a scenario [that doesn't include an injury] where he's not the No. 1 pick. I'd love to see him versus Kentucky's front line."
Nov 18 Update: Grade: A+ Okafor is off to a terrific start. He's averaging 18 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3 APG, 1.5 BPG and shooting an incredible 85 percent from the field in Duke's first two games. But Okafor's success goes beyond his gaudy statistical production for a freshman. His slimmed-down physique has made him faster and more explosive without sacrificing his power. If he keeps playing like this all season, he'll be hard to pass up as the No. 1 pick.
Oct 31 Update: Okafor has been the consensus No. 1 big man since he began his senior year of high school. Blessed with an NBA body, size (6-foot-11 in shoes with a huge 7-foot-5 wingspan) and a full array of big man skills, he's amazingly polished for someone so young and is expected to be the focal point of Duke's offense this season. The only real knock against him from an NBA standpoint is that he's not an elite athlete and typically plays below the rim. Scouts say he's looked amazing in scrimmages and practices for Duke. He has a real shot of being college basketball's Player of the Year.
Sept. 9 Update: he did the one thing that every scout had been hoping he'd do -- he lost a little weight. Conditioning was one area where Okafor was dinged. However, he's expected to be better athletically with a slightly thinner frame. From a skills standpoint, he's going to be tough to beat. While he's not a lock to be the No. 1 pick in the draft -- he'll get stiff competition from both Mudiay and, he's still the favorite at this point heading into the season.
July 16 Update: As we learned with Joel Embiid, size eventually outweighs just about everything else come draft time. At 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan and 9-foot-3 standing reach, Okafor is absolutely massive. And he has enormous hands and quick feet for a player his size to boot. As a true low-post player with a fairly sophisticated low-post game for his age, Okafor will no doubt intrigue whatever team ends up picking first. But despite his size, Okafor lacks elite athleticism and typically plays below the rim. If he were a better athlete, and if he were in better shape, he'd be a lock for the No. 1 pick. As it stands, he'll likely be the focal point of Duke's offense this season, which should give him plenty of chances to outshine any concerns about his game. If the team drafting No. 1 is in need a center, Okafor is a lock for the job.
June 28 Update: Okafor is 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. He's already 270 pounds. He has great hands, a soft touch and amazing footwork for an 18-year-old. He's a rare, old-school, back-to-the-basket center. However, Okafor isn't a lock to go No. 1. He lacks elite athleticism and has struggled with conditioning issues at times. While the most optimistic scouts see a young Tim Duncan, Duncan was a better athlete than Okafor. A young Elton Brand might be a better comp.
April 15 Update: Okafor is the other player in this class who gets a lot of attention as a potential No. 1 pick. Okafor is a true center with a huge body, amazing hands and terrific feet. He catches anything you throw at him and has a surprising array of post moves for a player his age. He can score on either block, has a nice little hook, a turnaround jumper and even an up-and-under move.
Okafor's strength allows him to manhandle players in the post, and he has a high basketball IQ, is a good passer out of double-teams and reads the game well. He got off to a slow start in the Hoop Summit before coming on in the second half. He ended up with 14 points and 10 rebounds but did have four turnovers.
So why might he not go No. 1? While Okafor has size and strength, he's not an explosive athlete. He has struggled with conditioning issues in the past, and though he has improved that greatly this year, he still could be in better shape. I've heard the Tim Duncan comparisons and agree that he's a very fundamentally sound player, but Elton Brand might be the better comp right now. Okafor is about an inch taller, but Brand had a longer wingspan, giving them the same standing reach. Duncan was just a bigger, better athlete at Okafor's age.
4 Kristaps Porzingis 19 PF 6-11 220 Latvia Top 5 Pick
June 18 Update: Porzingis just arrived in the United States last weekend and is planning a major workout in Las Vegas for NBA teams on Friday. It will be the only workout Porzingis will do before the draft. He will fly to a few teams and do interviews, but this one workout will likely solidify his stock in one direction or the other. I'll be there in Vegas to report on the whole thing, but until then, it's still a little tough to get a great read on his draft stock.
May 18 Update: Porzingis continues to be the wild card in this draft. Some teams have him ranked as high as No. 2 and No. 3 on their boards, while others have him in the eight to 10 range. The teams that have him high point to his unique combination of size, athleticism and skill. It's rare to find a 7-footer who can protect the rim, shoot the 3 and make high-IQ basketball plays. Teams that have him ranked lower worry about his thin frame and lack of rebounding in Spain. Porzingis will be coming to the U.S. in early June and will hold an NBA workout in Las Vegas on June 12. Once teams get to see him up close, in both this workout and in individual ones, I expect his draft status to firm up in the top five.
Apr 29 Update: Averaging 10.6 PPG | 4.8 RPG | 33 percent 3FG | 21 MPG
Porzingis is the wild card in this draft. International scouts swear by him. GMs still are trying to figure out exactly what he is at the next level. Is he the next Dirk Nowitzki or the next Jan Vesely? Based on the conversations I've had with numerous scouts with great track records in Europe, he's closer to Nowitzki than Vesely or -- my favorite analogy -- a more athletic Nikola Mirotic. He could go as high as No. 3 or as low as No. 8.
April 15 Update: Latvian big man Kristaps Porzingis will declare for the 2015 NBA draft, his agent, Andy Miller, told ESPN.com.
Porzingis is averaging 10.3 points per game, 4.5 rebounds and is shooting 33 percent from 3 in 21 minutes for his team Baloncesto Sevilla in the Spanish ACB. His numbers have been even better in Eurocup play, averaging 11.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and shooting 46 percent from 3.
Porzingis burst onto the NBA draft scene about this time last year when he declared for the 2014 NBA draft. As NBA teams scrambled to get to Spain to watch him play, they became enamored with his rare combination of size, athleticism, ability to protect the rim and shooting range. Porzingis rose from an obscure draft-and-stash late first-rounder into the late lottery before ultimately deciding to withdraw from the 2014 draft and try again this year.
It looks like it was a good move. Porzingis has been ranked in the top five all year on our 2015 Big Board and should be drafted in the three-to-six range in June, according to multiple NBA general managers and scouts.
Apr 13 Update: Porzingis isn't far behind Mudiay -- if he's behind him at all. A number of NBA scouts and GMs who have traveled to Spain to see him play this year have come back raving about him.
"He's an athletic, super-skilled 7-footer who can do everything well," one GM said. "I was watching him warm up and had flashbacks to when I saw Pau Gasol take the floor for the first time in Spain, only this kid is much more athletic than Gasol but plays with that same fluidity. I've been asking my team since then: Are you sure he's not the No. 1 guy? Are these guys in college really better than him?"
Another long-time international scout: "He's my favorite player in this draft. I keep telling my staff: This one is not like other international players. He's the real deal. He's special in all the ways a player can be special. He just needs to get stronger. That's it. He's going to be a big-time pro."
Blessed with great size, skill, and athleticism for his position -- all the comparables scouts are using for him are big-time NBA players: Nowitkzi, Gasol, and a more athletic Nikola Mirotic.
Still, not every team is sold on his game.
Porzingis needs to get stronger. He can fall in love with his perimeter game despite the fact that some scouts report that he's grown taller than 7 feet. And one NBA GM had this unique knock on his game.
"I don't think he's an a--h---. I watched him knock down a couple of guys during the course of the game and then stop, reach his hand down and help them up off the floor. I hate that. I want guys that are killers, that want to destroy their opponent. You see that and I wonder if he has the fire necessary to be great."
There are teams that have him ranked as high as No. 2 or No. 3 on their internal boards. But most likely he'll go in the No. 4 to No. 6 range.
Apr 8 Update: Porzingis is averaging 10.3 PPG | 4.6 RPG | 44% 3FG | 21 MPG
Porzingis continues to be the most underrated player in the draft. The buzz stateside is almost non-existent, but virtually every scout and GM who makes the trip to Spain comes back raving. A number of them were there to see his team, Sevilla, play FC Barcelona in late March. Porzingis had 18 points, five rebounds and shot 2-for-4 from 3-point range in the game. While he's likely going to land in the Nos. 4-to-7 range, there are a couple of teams that believe Porzingis is the best prospect in the draft after Towns and Mudiay.
Mar 31 Update: On a side note, a ton of NBA scouts went to Spain this week to see Hezonja's FC Barcelona play Kristaps Porzingis' Sevilla. Hezonja played just six minutes and had zero points. He's essentially fallen from a starter to a bit role player for Barcelona the past month -- not because of his play, but more likely because Barcelona is hoping to hurt his draft stock a little so that he'll return for another season. Meanwhile, Porzingis had 18 points on 8-for-18 shooting.
Mar 11 Update: Porzingis is averaging 11.6 PPG | 4.1 RPG | 46% 3FG | 21 MPG
Porzingis continues to draw praise from both NBA and international scouts who insist he's one of the best young international prospects to come along in a while. He has got size, athleticism and can both stretch the floor and protect the rim. Several respected international GMs and scouts swear he is the second coming of Dirk Nowitzki. The more cautious ones think he's a more athletic version of the Bulls' Nikola Mirotic. Either way, he should be a top-five pick. His lack of strength and definitive position are both knocks, but there are few plays with his size, skill and athleticism in the NBA.
Feb 11 Update: Porzingis is averaging 11.1 PPG | 4.2 RPG | 42 percent from 3 in 20 minutes a game
Porzingis falls out the top four for the first time all season in this update. The one-spot slide has nothing to do with Porzingis. He continues to make a compelling case as one of the best international prospects we've seen in a while -- a more athletic Nikola Mirotic, perhaps. The slide has more to do with Russell's domination the past month. Porzingis is still a compelling pick in the top five. He had 17 points and seven rebounds against Cai Zaragoza on Sunday. He's averaging 10.2 PPG and shooting 35 percent from 3-point range in ACB play.
Jan 28 Update: Porzingis is averaging 9.3 PPG and 4.7 RPG while shooting 35.5 percent from 3-point range for Baloncesto Sevilla in the Spanish ACB. His numbers in Eurocup play are even a little stronger: 10.9 PPG and 4.3 RPG on 47 percent shooting from 3. Many international scouts think that he's a more athletic version of Bulls rookie Nikola Mirotic. That's high praise. If Mirotic had been in the 2014 NBA draft, I believe he would've been drafted in the top five or six. Porzingis might not be as NBA-ready as Mirotic was coming out of the gate, but he's got an even higher ceiling.
Jan 6 Update: Porzingis is averaging 10.2 PPG | 4.1 RPG | 1.3 BPG
Porzingis continues to play in a way that should guarantee him a spot in the top five. He has the size, athleticism and skill set to be a terrific NBA power forward. The fact that he's shooting so well from 3-point range only adds to his value. He scored 13 points against Gran Canaria in just 21 minutes on Sunday. He shot 5-for-7 from the field and was 1-for-2 from beyond the arc. He's shooting a sizzling 50 percent from 3-point range in Eurocup play this season. He's averaging 8.7 PPG and shooting 37 percent from 3 in ACB play.
Dec 17 Update: Porzingis is averaging 10.8 PPG | 4.3 RPG | 1.3 BPG
Porzingis has sat at this spot since July. As more scouts head to Spain to see him play, the more convinced they are that he's the best international prospect in the draft and worthy of a top 5 pick. He posted the most points of his career in Eurocup play on Dec. 3, scoring 18 points against Virtus Roma in just 18 minutes. He shot 7-for-10 from the field, 2-for-3 from 3-point range. He's shooting a sizzling 53 percent from 3-point range and 56 percent from the field. In Spanish League ACB play, he had 14 points and six rebounds against Unicaja on Sunday. He's averaging 11 PPG and shooting 39 percent from 3 in ACB play.
Dec 2 Update: Porzingis is averaging 10 PPG | 5 RPG | 1.4 BPG. He was everyone's upside guy last season. This season, he's getting even more minutes for Sevilla. For a 19-year-old, he's putting up impressive stats in Spain in Eurocup play. He's shooting 52 percent from the field and 54 percent from 3-point range. His shooting percentages are down in ACB (Spanish League) play, but everyone from NBA scouts to Americans who have had the chance to play with him or against him are telling me the same thing: Porzingis is for real. At this point, the top four in the draft are looking very solid. We might not have the order figured out yet, but a combination of Okafor, Mudiay, Towns and Porzingis have a pretty solid grip on the top four slots.
Oct 31 Update: Last year Porzingis was a real mystery man -- a player who would've been drafted in the lottery based entirely on upside. But the longer scouts got to take a look at him this summer, the more convinced they are that he's the real thing. He, too, has the size to play both the 4 and the 5, is a terrific athlete and excels facing the basket. He needs to add strength and could use more experience, but Porzingis, if he were playing in college, would probably be in the conversation for the No. 1 pick.
Sept. 9 Update: Porzingis shocked everyone when he withdrew from the 2014 NBA draft at the last minute. On sheer upside alone he was looking like a late lottery pick. His decision could backfire -- clearly teams were drafting him without seeing much of him. But he visited Las Vegas this summer to workout with Impact Basketball's Joe Abunassar and several people in the gym told me Porzingis wowed them. You don't find his combination of size, skill, toughness and athleticism every day. And Abunassar has him on a rigorous strength training program now, too.
July 16 Update: Porzingis was the darling of the 2014 draft for a few weeks before stunning the NBA and pulling out just before deadline. That decision could be good or bad for Porzingis, whose projection as a late lottery pick to mid-first-rounder was based on limited scouting. If he gets more playing time and continues to improve, he has the potential -- and the size and athletic ability -- to be a very high pick. However, if he struggles in Europe or if scouts begin to pick him apart, he could fall -- and fall far. Of all the players in the top 10, Porzingis and Myles Turner have the most volatile draft stock.
June 15 Update: In a surprise move, Porzingis decided to withdraw from the 2014 NBA draft even though he was projected in the late lottery to mid first round. However, if Porzingis continues to develop, he's a strong candidate to be a top-10 pick in 2015.
June 4 Update: A few weeks ago it seemed unlikely that Porzingis would keep his name in the draft. The 18-year-old Latvian was projected as a potential top-10 pick next year. But sources now say Porzingis has received a promise from the Thunder to draft him in the first round. There's no way he'll be around at 29, so the Thunder's pick at No. 21 is the target. The question is whether that will be high enough to get him. Porzingis going in the late lottery to mid-first round is no longer a pipe dream for this skilled 7-footer with tremendous upside. With so many teams carrying multiple first-round picks, his range starts with the Magic at No. 12. Plus, the Suns at No. 14, the Bulls at Nos. 16 or 19, and now likely ends with the Thunder at 21.
May 19 Update No one really expects to see Porzingis keep his name in the draft. He could be a lottery pick next year if he stays in Europe. However, if he decides to remain in the draft, he'll go somewhere in the first round. He's the perfect type of draft-and-stash candidate with big upside.
Apr 28 Update Porzingas surprised just about everyone by declaring for the 2014 NBA Draft. Porzingas is a good athlete and can score inside and outside. He needs to add strength and experience, but he is a talent. He averaged 14 minutes per game in the ACB, scoring 6.3 ppg and shooting 36 percent from three. With Mario Hezonja out, he becomes the one young, raw prospect that someone could take a flier on in the mid to late first round.
5 Emmanuel Mudiay 19 PG 6-5 196 China Top 5 Pick
June 18 Update: While I think Towns is the best prospect in this draft, Mudiay is the next most intriguing physical prospect. He does incredible things for a player his size. And as far as the experience in China? Mudiay has developed both physically and mentally in ways that will be hard for the other top players in the draft to match.
May 18 Update: Mudiay was actually the first player to announce he'd be completely skipping the draft combine. While GMs generally shrugged off the decision from Okafor and Towns, they were much more agitated about Mudiay. Why? Most of the key decision-makers in the NBA haven't seen him live. While he never was going to do 5-on-5, having the medical testing, measurements and interviews would've been really helpful. His decision clearly is affecting his draft stock as more than one GM asked how they could have him higher than Russell when Russell has done and proved so much more. There are still a handful of trusted, high-profile scouts who argue Mudiay is the second-best player in this draft. Said one, "Mudiay was regarded by everyone as a much better prospect than Russell this time last year. Russell went to Ohio State, was put into a lead role on a high-profile team, and wowed us. He's improved and we all saw it. But I suspect Mudiay improved too and we just didn't see it. We're judging Russell now versus Mudiay one year ago. This is such a huge developmental time for everyone; I suspect he's gotten better. When teams in the top five see him in workouts, their decision will get much harder."
Apr 29 Update: If Towns and Okafor are locked in a scrum for the best big man in the draft, then Mudiay and Russell are locked into a fight for the best guard. They offer a major contrast in styles. Mudiay's game is based on power and athleticism while Russell's is on skill, shooting and feel. NBA teams will be watching closely to see how Mudiay shoots the ball in workouts. That's their biggest question mark about him at the moment. Both guards have a place in the NBA, and where Mudiay lands will largely depend on which teams end up with the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 picks in the draft.
Apr 13 Update: Mudiay, like Simmons and Labissiere, is a hybrid international prospect. He was born in Congo but played high school ball here in the United States. Mudiay played at last year's Nike Hoop Summit and was the standout prospect on the international team. He had committed to SMU, and many scouts thought that under coach Larry Brown's tutelage there, he'd be in serious consideration for the No. 1 pick in the draft. Instead, Mudiay decided to sign with a pro team in China, primarily for financial reasons. The move didn't hurt him as much as you'd expect. While very few scouts actually got to see him live, he played well in the 13 games he appeared in and handled himself even better off the court -- proving to scouts a maturity that few others in this draft class can claim. It's one thing to leave home and go to college. It's another thing entirely to play pro ball with grown men -- a number of them former NBA players -- in China. Mudiay's appeal is based around a terrific combination of size, athleticism and power at the point guard position. He can get anywhere he wants on the floor, finishes at the rim, and plays with a terrific motor. His jump shot still needs more work and he can still polish his point guard skills, but he's likely to be the first international player to hear his name called on draft night. Look for him to go in the No. 2 to No. 5 range.
Apr 8 Update: Mudiay's China experience is over. He's back in Dallas and beginning to prep for the draft. He likely won't work out anywhere until the draft lottery is decided in mid-May and even then it probably will be with only three or four teams. Several teams that will likely pick early, such as the Knicks and Sixers, have him ranked very high on their boards. Unless his workouts are awful, his draft range is very solidly No. 2 to 4.
Mar 11 Update: We went all-in on Mudiay last week. I wrote a feature story on his play in China and his quest to be the No. 1 pick. Fran Fraschilla broke him down in a film session. Jeff Goodman talked to former NBA players who played against Mudiay in China for a scouting report, and Kevin Pelton and I examined what analytics had to say about Mudiay. The consensus? Mudiay is still very much in play for the No. 1 pick. While his play in China didn't move the needle too much, how he handled the situation seems to have convinced scouts that he has the maturity and work ethic to handle the NBA.
Mar 6 Update: This week ESPN Insider unleashed a major Emmanuel Mudiay package that included my feature story on Mudiay's draft stock from high school to China, a Fran Fraschilla film session on Mudiay's performance at the Nike Hoop Summit and Jeff Goodman's look at what several of Mudiay's opponents in China thought of his NBA future.
But that story wouldn't be complete without a Ford-Pelton file on the subject. I went on for 3,000 words on what scouts and GMs thinks about Mudiay's draft stock. I won't repeat all of that here. But in summary, they believe he's a top-four prospect in the draft with elite size (6-foot-5, 200 pounds) and athleticism for his position (point guard).
What I think everyone really wants to know, however, is what do the numbers say?
Kevin Pelton: More so than any other international league, the Chinese Basketball Association tends to produce eye-popping numbers. Teams are allowed just two imports, who tend to play nearly all of the games and create an enormous percentage of the offense. So per-game stats from the CBA can't be taken at face value.
Looking at how players who have gone from the NBA to the CBA over the past four seasons (or vice versa) have fared, it becomes clear that the level of competition in China is not nearly as high as the European leagues I've studied. In particular, usage rates and rebound rates tend to drop dramatically in the conversion process. Shooting percentages, because of the trade-off between usage and efficiency, actually convert about the same as they do from Europe.
Let's take Andray Blatche as an example. This season, he averaged 31.1 points, 14.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game in the CBA. But when that performance is translated to its NBA equivalent, Blatche was really performing at the level of a player with 16.5 points, 10.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per 36 minutes -- not dissimilar to his NBA numbers last season with the Brooklyn Nets (18.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists per 36).
Applying the same translations to Mudiay turns his averages of 18.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game to 11.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists per 36 minutes in the NBA. Among rookies, Marcus Smart of the Boston Celtics (10.5 points, 4.9 assists and 4.4 rebounds per 36 minutes) would be the best match for Mudiay.
Question: How does Mudiay rate compared to other top prospects?
Ford: Some teams have Mudiay as high as No. 2 on their internal big boards. A few teams have him ranked at No. 5. A small handful of GMs still believe, with strong workouts and the lottery balls falling the right way (toward a team like Philadelphia, for example), he could be the No. 1 pick.
The draft is really devoid of elite point guard prospects, which helps Mudiay, as well. His only real competition among guards is Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, and they are totally different players. Russell is about power and athleticism. Russell is a smooth athlete with a killer jump shot. Most scouts believe Mudiay is more of a full-time point guard than Russell, however, which is another point in his favor. There isn't another elite point guard prospect in the lottery.
Where would Mudiay fall on your statistical big board? How does he compare to Russell? And how much can we learn from the 12 games Mudiay played in the CBA this season?
Pelton: Mudiay's 2.4 WARP projection would put him ninth on my board at this point. But among top-10 prospects, he's fourth behind Russell (3.1), Myles Turner (2.
Obviously, the more information we had the better I'd feel about Mudiay's projection. But because of the way volatile stats are regressed to the mean while more consistent ones are credited to the individual, my experience is that translated statistics can pick out the top prospects surprisingly quickly. So I wouldn't be especially concerned that his projection is a fluke.
Question: What are Mudiay's strengths and weaknesses? Who are NBA comparisons for him?
Ford: While he's not a great shooter yet and can play with tunnel vision at times, Mudiay shows potential to be a point guard who can find balance between running a team and scoring the basketball. He can score from anywhere on the floor yet can also be unselfish when he needs to be. I think his ability to get to and finish at the rim has teams excited. Perhaps his best attributes right now besides his size and athleticism are his ability to defend both positions in the backcourt and the high level of maturity he showed while playing (and often sitting on the bench) in China.
The scouts I've spoken with, along with SMU coach Larry Brown (whom I interviewed for the article I wrote), typically use three comps for him: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and John Wall. For those less enamored with his skill set, the Tyreke Evans comp comes up a lot.
Pelton: The big thing that stands out as a strength is Mudiay's rebounding. His projected defensive rebound rate would be average for an NBA shooting guard and is very good for a point guard. As I've noted in the past, rebounding guards tend to translate better to the NBA than their poor-rebounding counterparts. Mudiay's 2-point percentage is also solid. The biggest knock on his game right now is a lack of free throw attempts. At the same time, given he shot just 57.4 percent from the line in China, that might not be the worst thing.
The comps you mention match up well with what SCHOENE finds in terms of similarity. Rose is the closest match for Mudiay at the same age, with Wall also in the top three (along with Jrue Holiday). And Westbrook and Evans are among Mudiay's top-10 comps.
Mar 4 Update: Duke freshman Jahlil Okafor is leading the conversation for national player of the year, carrying the Blue Devils to a possible No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Kentucky freshman Karl-Anthony Towns is starting for the No. 1 team in the country, helping lead the Wildcats to a potentially undefeated season. Ohio State freshman D'Angelo Russell is slicing through defenses and garnering the rep as the next James Harden, making his case as the slickest, most dynamic scorer in the country.
All three of them are two weeks away from playing on the biggest basketball stage in the world: March Madness. Meanwhile, 8,000 miles away in China, Emmanuel Mudiay -- who before the season was slated to play for SMU -- is packing his bags, preparing for the long trip home to Dallas after spending the past five months playing pro basketball overseas.
Okafor, Towns and Russell are strolling along the tree-lined sidewalks of three of the best universities in the country. They're figuring out how to write papers, study for tests and how to balance the paradox of being celebrities and unpaid students.
Mudiay has been riding his bicycle to practice through the crowded streets of Guangdong, China, for the past five months. He doesn't speak the language. He lives with his mother. There are no classes, no Midnight Madness, no nightlife to speak of. He's making a ton of money but has nothing to really spend it on right now.
While Okafor, Towns and Russell are building their brands by starring weekly in front of millions on national TV, Mudiay, on most game nights since late November, has taken his position at the end of the bench, the highest-paid 18-year-old part-time cheerleader, part-time practice player in the world.
Okafor, Towns and Russell are being mentored by three Hall of Fame coaches with a long track record of getting their players drafted at the top of the lottery. Mudiay's head coach, Du Feng, is a former Chinese Olympian and pro basketball player who has never gotten anyone drafted.
One of these four top prospects in the NBA draft is not like the other -- for good and for bad...
Click here to read more of Chad Ford's feature on Mudiay's time in China
Feb 11 Update: Mudiay still hasn't played a game in China since injuring his ankle in late November. At this point it's highly unlikely that he will return. For a while, the strategy seemed to make a lot of sense. Mudiay was considered far and away the best guard in this draft class. But as D'Angelo Russell has come on, Mudiay's grip on No. 2 -- and as the best alternative to Okafor as the No. 1 pick -- has weakened considerably. Of the scouts I polled, only a very slight majority preferred him to Russell. They are two very different types of guards and both will be picked high, but Mudiay's disappearing act the past few months is finally starting to catch up with him.
Jan 6 Update: We're all still waiting to see if Mudiay will play another game in China. He has been out since late November nursing an ankle injury. That injury, sources say, is healed. However, former NBA guard Will Bynum has taken his place in the rotation and is playing well. That could be the explanation, though many of the NBA scouts I've spoken with believe he has decided to shut it down for the season. However, a source close to Mudiay told me they do anticipate that Mudiay will return to the court. The question is when. Regardless, he continues to be in the mix for the No. 1 pick. If a team is looking for a guard, he's far and away the best prospect on the board.
Dec 31 Update: Mudiay is, far and away, the best point guard prospect of the group. He hasn't played for more than a month in China (first because of an ankle injury and then because his team brought in veteran Will Bynum to take his spot) and word is he may pull a Dante Exum and just spend the rest of the season training and prepping for the draft. It won't matter. His draft stock is pretty set as a top-five pick.
Dec 17 Update: Mudiay still hasn't returned from his ankle injury, scuttling a huge scouting junket a number of NBA teams had put together to see him Dec. 12-18 in Guangzhou. Mudiay's Chinese team went ahead and brought in veteran Will Bynum to replace him and there are legitimate questions now whether Mudiay will be playing much more basketball (if any) in China. Given his early season exposure, his camp could be persuaded that following a Dante Exum-like path of workouts will still land him in the top 5. As the only legit point guard prospect this high in the draft, that seems like a pretty safe bet.
Dec 2 Update: Mudiay is averaging 18.9 PPG | 6.6 RPG | 6.3 APG. There were serious questions among NBA scouts about how Mudiay would fare in China. So far the results have been very positive. Mudiay's numbers have been strong in his first nine games, and just as importantly, his team (Guangdong) has been winning when he's on the floor. The only real weakness right now is a pedestrian 32 percent from beyond the arc. An ankle injury has kept him out of action the past couple of weeks, but it's nothing serious -- his camp, understandably, is bringing him back slowly. There's very little question at this point that Mudiay is the best guard prospect in the draft. I don't think there's a close second. Where he goes in the draft will likely depend on who gets the top overall pick.
Nov 26 Update: Emmanuel Mudiay would've topped this list a week ago. Through his first nine games in China, he's averaging 18.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 6.3 APG and shooting 49 percent from field. However, an ankle injury suffered late last week has him out a minimum of two weeks. The long-term prognosis is good, a source close to Mudiay told me. It isn't a serious injury. But his people are going to play it safe. His stock is too high right now. Most scouts I've spoken with have him either No. 2 or No. 3 on their boards. Mudiay does have things to work on. After a hot shooting start, he's down to shooting 32 percent from 3 and he's averaging 3.1 turnovers per game. But overall, he's impressed everyone. A number of scouts are heading over to China in a couple of weeks to get an up-close look. We should know even more then.
Nov 19 Update: Mudiay continues to put up very strong numbers in China. He's averaging 20.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 6.4 apg, 1.7 spg, 3.4 tpg in 34 mpg. He's shooting 36 percent from three and 49 percent from the field.
Nov 14 Update: Mudiay's decision to skip his freshman season at SMU and head to play professional ball in China raised a lot of eyebrows among NBA scouts. But so far, so good. Through his first five games, Mudiay is averaging 19.0 points, 6.6 rebounds and 7.0 assists in 34.0 minutes per game, and is shooting 47 percent from 3-point range. He's doing all of this while averaging just 2.5 turnovers per game. While lots of players who couldn't make the cut in the NBA have inflated numbers in China, Mudiay's performance has been impressive for an 18-year-old. He especially wowed in his last game versus Qingdao, racking up a triple-double with 22 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists with zero turnovers. If he keeps playing like this, he'll be a serious candidate for the No. 1 pick, especially if a team in need of a guard lands the top selection.
Nov 5 Update: Mudiay is off to a very good start in China. Last night, in his second regular season game, he scored 29 points, grabbed 9 rebounds, had 7 assists and 4 steals. He hit 3 of his 5 threes and shot 12-for-17 from the field overall. It's China and the competition isn't necessarily elite, but for an 18 year old those are remarkable numbers. He had 6 turnovers ... so there's room for improvement there. But if he can play at anywhere near the level of this, he'll be in the mix for the No. 1 pick with Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Sept. 9 Update: Mudiay's decision to bolt SMU and head to play professional ball in China certainly didn't help his stock. Scouts were anxious to see what Larry Brown could do to polish his game. But his departure didn't hurt, either. There isn't another elite point guard prospect in the draft to really challenge him. Even if Mudiay doesn't play well or get a lot of time in China (and most don't believe he will), scouts will be patient. Remember, Dante Exum went No. 5 in a loaded draft after just playing a handful of high school games in Australia. If Mudiay works out well, he'll be gone early.
July 16 Update: The news that Mudiay would skip his freshman season at SMU and instead play overseas in China this season sent shock waves through the college basketball crowd. But among NBA circles this won't move the needle much, if at all. Yes, Mudiay's departure hurts SMU. Yes, Mudiay will miss the chance to be coached by Larry Brown. But after watching Dante Exum pass on heading to college last year and still end up as top-5 pick in a loaded draft, does anyone seriously think Mudiay playing overseas is going to scare off GMs? Mudiay was the best player at the Nike Hoop Summit in April. Among the 30-plus GMs and scouts I surveyed, he was one of only two players (Okafor was the other) to be mentioned as a potential No. 1 pick. If he was smart, he'd shut it down completely, hire an agent and trainer like Exum did and spend the year training for the draft. He'd be impossible to pick apart then. If he goes overseas, he'll likely struggle like most young point guards do there. Scouts already expect him to struggle, so doing so won't hurt his stock. NBA folks are obviously bummed they don't get to see him play college ball for a year, but the effect on his draft stock should be minimal. He'll stay at No. 2 and I'd be shocked if he slides much from that spot.
June 27 Update: Okafor's top competition for the No. 1 pick will come from Emmanuel Mudiay, a 6-foot-5 point guard committed to SMU -- the No. 2-ranked player on our Top 100. Mudiay has both size and elite athleticism for his position. He's quick, strong, is relentless at getting to the basket and finishes above the rim.
His dominant play at the Nike Hoop Summit had many scouts predicting that he would eventually overtake Okafor as the No. 1 pick in the draft. Mudiay isn't a great shooter yet, can be turnover-prone and he's going to play for a head coach, Larry Brown, who is notoriously hard on young point guards (some scouts see that as a good thing). But if he really gets things going as a freshman, his upside could easily vault him over Okafor. If I were to rank the percentage of these two going No. 1 right now, it would be Okafor at 51 percent and Mudiay at 49 percent. It's that close.
April 15 Update: If there was one standout prospect from the Hoop Summit, it was Mudiay. Both before and especially after the game, many of the NBA GMs and scouts I spoke with thought Mudiay had the best shot of anyone in this class of being the No. 1 pick and a future All-Star.
NBA folks love point guards with both size and athleticism, and Mudiay has both. He's a quick, powerful guard who can get to the basket and finish above the rim. He led all scorers at the Hoop Summit with 20 points and also had five rebounds, five assists and one steal, with just one turnover.
He can overdribble the ball at times, his decision-making and feel for running the point is still a work in progress and his jumper needs a lot of work, but the raw talent to be a Derrick Rose-type power point guard in the NBA is all there. The fact that Larry Brown, one of the most respected point guard coaches in the NBA, is his head coach next year is also earning him points among scouts who believe that Brown will get the junk out of his game and make him a better point guard for the NBA.
If he has a big season for SMU, he has a great shot at going No. 1.
6 Mario Hezonja 20 SF 6-7 200 Croatia Top 10 Pick
June 18 Update: Hezonja is right there alongside Winslow as the top wingman on the board. The biggest thing hurting Hezonja is that because of team commitments, he's unable to interview and work out for NBA teams. While scouts have done their due diligence and scouted him heavily in Spain, his playing time and role with the team have been very inconsistent, especially lately. He might very well have overtaken Winslow had he been able to attend workouts.
May 18 Update: After speaking with NBA scouts and GMs it's still very possible that Hezonja could end up being taken ahead of both Porzingis and Winslow. But will they draft him without the ability to work him out and interview him? Hezonja probably is stuck in Spain through the rest of the draft process because of his commitments to FC Barcelona. It's going to take a GM who is willing to take a risk to draft him above those two. But he has elite size and athleticism for his position, is a terrific shooter and plays with an intensity that few can match in this draft. "He's crazy," one GM said. "But I think it's a good crazy. The type of crazy confidence that elite players need. If he can keep that competitiveness under control and be patient, he's got a good shot to be one of the two or three best players in this draft in five years. He has that 'it' factor that several guys ahead of him don't."
Apr 29 Update: Averaging: 7.7 PPG | 2.0 RPG | 38 percent 3FG | 16 MPG
It's very possible that Hezonja could end up being taken ahead of both Porzingis and Winslow. There are a number of scouts that swear by him because of his unique combination of size, athleticism and toughness. They'd love to see Winslow, Hezonja, Stanley Johnson and Kelly Oubre or Sam Dekker go head-to-head in workouts, but at this point it looks unlikely that teams will get Hezonja in for workouts before the draft. They're going to have to take what they've seen from Hezonja this season in Barcelona. He should fall somewhere in the Nos. 5-to-10 range.
Apr 23 Update: FC Barcelona wing Mario Hezonja will declare for the 2015 NBA draft, his agent, Arn Tellem, told ESPN.com on Thursday.
Hezonja is ranked No. 8 on ESPN's latest Big Board. The Croatian averaged 7.7 points and shot 38 percent from 3 in 17 minutes per game in Euroleague play this season.
While his numbers are modest, scouts are excited about his NBA potential. They see an athletic wing who can stroke it from 3, put the ball on the floor and finish at the rim. When he gets regular minutes, Hezonja is aggressive and plays in attack mode. And his experience playing for an elite team in Europe means he has faced tough competition night in and night out.
"I really love him," one NBA scout told ESPN. "I love [Justise] Winslow, too, but I really think if this kid was in college we'd all be going crazy for him. He's tough, he's athletic, he shoots the s--- out of it. And the kid just knows how to play. He's going to be really, really good in the NBA. He's the first wing on my board."
Apr 13 Update: Hezonja is also right in the mix with Porzingis and Mudiay, and on one or two boards, higher than both of them.
"I really love him," one NBA scout told ESPN. "I love Winslow, too, but I really think if this kid was in college we'd all be going crazy for him. He's tough, he's athletic, he shoots the s--- out of it. And the kid just knows how to play. He's going to be really, really good in the NBA. He's the first wing on my board."
Hezonja has gotten more playing time this season, and with it, he has been able to show off his great size, athleticism and shooting ability on the wing. While he's coming off the bench at FC Barcelona, the fact that he can get the minutes for one of the best pro teams in Europe is impressive.
Not all of the NBA teams have Duke's Justise Winslow as the No. 1 wing on their boards. Hezonja is a better shooter than Winslow -- and bigger. He's a better athlete than Stanley Johnson and a better shooter. And while he might be most comparable to Kelly Oubre, he's well ahead of him in basketball IQ and NBA readiness.
Look for Hezonja to go in the No. 6 to No. 10 range.
Apr 8 Update: Hezonja is averaging 8.4 PPG | 2.0 RPG | 42 percent 3FG | 16 MPG
Hezonja's playing time has been up and down in the past month. Scouts were frustrated when they flew to Spain to see Barcelona take on Sevilla, only to see Hezonja play just six minutes and score zero points. However, in a Euroleague game a few nights later against Real Madrid, Hezonja got 16 minutes and made the most of it, scoring 15 points on 5-for-6 shooting from 3-point range. Hezonja may have lost some ground the past month to Winslow in the quest to be the first wing off the board, but he still looks like a lock for a top-10 pick, and according to most NBA scouts and GMs, should be the second wing off the board after Winslow.
Mar 31 Update: On a side note, a ton of NBA scouts went to Spain this week to see Hezonja's FC Barcelona play Kristaps Porzingis' Sevilla. Hezonja played just six minutes and had zero points. He's essentially fallen from a starter to a bit role player for Barcelona the past month -- not because of his play, but more likely because Barcelona is hoping to hurt his draft stock a little so that he'll return for another season. Meanwhile, Porzingis had 18 points on 8-for-18 shooting.
Mar 23 Update: And on a side note -- Mario Hezonja had zero points in 11 minutes versus Valencia on Sunday in the ACB and zero points in eight minutes versus Crvena Zvedza on Thursday in Euroleague play, so it's not like he's lighting up Europe at the moment.
Mar 11 Update: Hezonja is averaging 8.6 PPG | 2.0 RPG | 41% 3FG | 17 MPG
Hezonja's game has cooled off considerably the last few weeks, but at this point, I think he's done enough to put himself in serious play to go as high as the No. 6 pick in the draft. His combination of athleticism, shooting ability and energy might make him the most well-rounded of the wings in this draft class.
Feb 11 Update: Hezonja is averaging 9.7 PPG | 2.0 RPG | 43.5 percent from 3 in 18 MPG
Hezonja is coming off a strong December where he saw his minutes and production increase dramatically. It was the first long stretch scouts got to see what he can do on a consistent basis. He has been athletic, attacking the basket and shooting well from beyond the arc. When he plays like this, he looks like a lock to be a top-10 pick and perhaps the first wing off the board. However, his numbers have dipped a bit recently. He had just five points in 18 minutes in his previous Euroleague outing versus Alba Berlin, and had zero points in 16 minutes versus Bilbao on Sunday.
Jan 6 Update: Hezonja is averaging 7.8 PPG | 2.0 RPG | 40 percent 3-point shooting in 17 MPG
Hezonja is coming off a strong December where he saw his minutes and production increase dramatically. It was the first long stretch scouts got to see what he can do on a consistent basis. He has been athletic, attacking the basket and shooting well from beyond the arc. When he plays like this, he looks like a lock to be a top-10 pick and perhaps the first wing off the board. However, his numbers have dipped a bit recently. He had just five points in 18 minutes in his previous Euroleague outing versus Alba Berlin, and had zero points in 16 minutes versus Bilbao on Sunday.
Dec 17 Update: Hezonja is averaging 8 PPG | 2.3 RPG | 1.3 APG in 17 MPG
For the first time in his career, Hezonja is finding significant playing time for FC Barcelona and for the most part, he's making the most of it. He cracked 20 minutes for the first time against Milan two weeks ago and scored 13 points. He followed that up with 15 points in 17 minutes against PGE Turow Zgorzelec and then played 29 minutes against Fenerbahce Ulker Istanbul on Dec. 11 shooting 4-for-6 from beyond the arc. Hezonja is shooting an impressive 44 percent from 3 this season in Euroleague play. His numbers aren't quite as impressive in Spanish League (ACB) play, but he did just score 14 points in 28 minutes of play against Zaragoza on Sunday.
Dec 2 Update: Hezonja is averaging: 5.3 PPG | 1.8 RPG | 1.3 APG in 13 MPG Hezonja's biggest problem has been playing time, and so far it doesn't look as if any major minutes will be coming his way soon. He did get an uncharacteristically high 22 minutes against Milan on Nov. 28, posting an impressive 13 points and hitting a couple of 3s. We will see if his strong play will lead to more minutes. Scouts don't seem deterred, however, by Hezonja's inability to get in the game. He plays for an elite club in Europe, and whenever he does get the minutes, he tends to produce. Virtually every scout I spoke to thinks he will be a top-10 pick and will compete with Winslow, Kelly Oubre and Stanley Johnson to be the first wing off the board.
Nov 6 Update: Hezonja isn't your typical Euro wing. He's a terrific athlete who flies up and down the floor and can finish well above the rim. If he were getting any real playing time in Barcelona, he would've likely been a top-10 pick this past year. Scouts think he'll come out after this season regardless. There's so much raw talent that someone will be willing to wait.
Sept. 9 Update: Scouts still have a love affair with Hezonja despite the fact that they rarely get to see him play meaningful minutes. He's on FIBA's Croatia's World Championship roster this year but as of Monday, he's averaging just 6.5 MPG. It's doubtful he'll see a major bump in minutes when he returns to his team FC Barcelona this year. He's talented, but that team is loaded. Still, when you find a long, athletic wing who can shoot and score from anywhere on the floor you gamble, even if he's yet to have a chance to prove his value on the court.
July 16 Update: Hezonja has the talent to be a lottery pick. He's a long, athletic wing who can shoot and score from anywhere on the floor. He's a good athlete and has a terrific basketball IQ. His lack of playing time in Spain and questions about his selfishness kept him from being a lottery pick last season. But teams expect him to see more run this season in the ACB. If he produces, he's an elite prospect who could move up four or five spots come draft time.
March 5 Update: Hezonja doesn't get a lot of playing time right now in Spain, but he's widely regarded by many scouts to be an elite prospect. He's a versatile scorer with excellent athletic abilities. Those don't come along every day.
Feb 11 Update: Hezonja continues to be one of those prospects whom you have to scout more in practice than in the game. He's averaging just 8.5 minutes per game. But the scouts who know him the best feel he'll be a steal this low in the draft.
Jan 29 Update: International scouts are still obsessed with Hezonja. Some claim he's the best young international talent in the draft. However, his lack of meaningful minutes for FCB Regal this season has made it difficult for front offices to gauge where he fits in this draft. Someone is going to gamble on his talent, likely somewhere between the lottery and the late first round.
Jan 23 Update: The Wizards sent this pick to the Suns as part of the Marcin Gortat trade at the start of the season. Hezonja is one of the more interesting players in the draft. Scouts, especially international ones, are very high on him. However, he plays sparingly on one of the best teams in Europe, FC Barcelona. Given that he skipped international competitions this summer, whoever drafts him has to draft using a little faith. His upside is tremendous, but he's a gamble. He's just 18 years old, so it could be a gamble worth taking.
Dec 17 Update: Hezonja still isn't doing much right now. He's made a total of five baskets all year in the ACB League and just two baskets in Euroleague play. Nevertheless, scouts continue to insist that if Hezonja had the same opportunities that Dario Saric had in regards to playing time and shots, he would be much higher on our Board.
Nov. 27 Update: Hezonja is well regarded by scouts, but his playing time in Spain continues to be very limited. He hasn't scored more than three points in a game in November. It's still unclear whether the limited playing time will ultimately hurt his draft stock. Scouts will begin heading to Europe soon to check him out in practices, and we should have more information then.
Nov. 12 Update: Hezonja is back playing basketball at FC Barcelona this season and much like last year, his role on one of the best teams in Europe is very limited right now. He's averaging 3.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG, in 7.5 MPG in the ACB right now. Combine that with some missed opportunities this summer because of injuries and he's a little lower on the list than his talent suggests.
Nov. 7 Update: Hezonja could end up being the seventh wing on this list to land in the lottery. There are many international scouts who believe he is the best international prospect in the draft. He's a very skilled wing who can slash to the basket or pull up and hit a jumper. Questions about his attitude on and off the court have hurt his stock a bit. But a big season for FC Barcelona would quickly push him up a few spots in the rankings.
Sept 9 Update: Mavericks GM Donnie Nelson has always loved international players and likely will be bummed if Saric is off the board. But not too bummed. Many scouts and fans in Croatia think Hezonja might actually be the better long-term prospect. A number of scouts I spoke with have Hezonja ranked as a top-10 player in this draft. Yes, the Mavs just signed Monta Ellis, but that wouldn't stop them from grabbing Hezonja as a long-term solution at the 2.
Aug 13 Update: I saw Hezonja playing at the 2011 Eurocamp for the U-19 Croatia team. He was my favorite player in the camp despite the fact he was just 16. I loved his athletic ability, but more importantly, I loved his confidence. He's now playing for FC Barcelona, one of the best teams in Europe. He's the only player in Europe who can really rival Dario Saric, in terms of talent. Injuries kept Hezonja out of the Under-19s this year, which might have hurt his draft stock a bit. The big question for Hezonja will be whether he gets the playing time he needs to continue to develop his game.
7 Justise Winslow 19 SF 6-6 222 Duke Top 10 Pick
June 18 Update: The Winslow vs. Mario Hezonja debate continues to rage in NBA front offices around the league. Hezonja is the bigger and better offensive player. Winslow is stronger, a better defender and a better-known quantity. Both have a chance to be terrific. Winslow gets the slight nod over Hezonja on our Big Board when surveying teams around the league, but it's very, very close. One thing that might get Winslow the nod is his place in certain analytics models.
May 18 Update: Winslow drew rave reviews from NBA scouts for his interviews in Chicago. "He's one of the most impressive young men you'll meet in any draft," one GM said. His measurements, however, left a lot to be desired. Winslow measured just 6-foot-4.5 in socks (translates to 6-5.75 in shoes) -- that's a bit undersized for the position he's most well-suited for, small forward -- and could make him vulnerable to a late surge by Mario Hezonja. "You're drafting Winslow based more on what kind of kid and player he is and less on a particular basketball skill," one NBA GM told me. "And you're hoping the skill part comes based on his work ethic. It reminds me of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist a few years ago. The intangibles are outweighing some red flags on his game. The only difference is that Winslow is a better spot-up shooter than MKG. But the similarities are there."
May 15 Update: Justise Winslow, Stanley Johnson and Kelly Oubre are all competing to be the first wing off the board. Oubre was the tallest and the longest. He measured 6-5¾ in socks and 6-6¾ in shoes with a huge 7-2¼ wingspan. Johnson was next, standing 6-5 in socks, 6-6½ in shoes with a 6-11½ wing. Winslow's measurements were the most disappointing: 6-4½ in socks, 6-6½ in shoes with a 6-10½ wingspan.
Oubre was, however the lightest at 202, followed by Winslow at 222 and Johnson at a huge 240 pounds.
Oubre clearly has the size to play the 2 and the 3. Johnson's measurements are good if he's a 2 from a height standpoint, and a little below average if he's a 3. However, he weighs as much as many power forwards in the draft. Winslow is solid at the 2 but below average at the 3. That could be a small problem for Winslow as he's the one of the three most likely to be projected solely as a 3 by NBA teams.
Apr 29 Update: Winslow still is riding a tremendous run in the NCAA tournament and has persuaded some scouts to put him ahead of several players in our top five. But there also is still some skepticism among GMs. They question whether Winslow just got hot at the right time. In workouts, he's going to have to show that he can shoot the ball with the same consistency he shot it at the end of the season, and that he has the ball skills to play the wing. With Hezonja closing on him fast, Winslow is going to have to continue to wow in workouts to keep up his position.
Apr 15 Update: Winslow has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Winslow is the highest-rated wing on our draft board and has seen his stock soar over the last month of the season. He's blessed with an NBA body, athleticism, the ability to shoot when he gets his feet set and an attack mentality that makes him a beast on both ends of the floor. His ability to shoot off the bounce is his biggest question mark at the moment; other than that, he's a very good NBA prospect who draws comparisons to both Kawhi Leonard and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Look for him to go in the No. 4-to-6 range.
Apr 8 Update: No one did more in the tournament to help his stock than Winslow. He nearly averaged a double-double in the tournament, shot 7-for-12 from beyond the arc, had 10 blocks and nine steals and cemented his status as the toughest, highest-motor prospect at the top of the draft. While he didn't have a dominant offensive performance in the title game (11 points on 3-for-9 shooting), he was the difference defensively for the Blue Devils, giving both Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes fits while recording four steals and three blocks. His stock has risen to the point that he's now in the Nos. 3-to-7 range in the draft. There are even a couple of teams that have him rated ahead of Okafor on their draft boards.
Apr 6 Update: The NCAA final is on Monday, and while NBA scouts didn't get to see the matchup they wanted between likely top two picks Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns, the consolation prize is pretty good. They do get to see the two hottest names in the NCAA tournament -- Duke's Justise Winslow and Wisconsin's Sam Dekker -- go head-to-head.
Q: Which wing has the better NBA future: Winslow or Dekker?
Ford: I really like both players -- a lot. Both are worthy of lottery picks in my opinion. However, I think Winslow is the better prospect. He's at No. 6 in my Top 100 and has been in the top 10 most of the year. Dekker's good, too. He's moved up to No. 13 in our updated Top 100, and I think he has a great shot in the lottery.
Kevin? I think you have a pretty different take.
Pelton: You might be surprised. I'm not as down on Winslow as my statistical projections. Even with his great run, Winslow still hasn't cracked the top 30 in projected WARP. However, when you break it down Winslow has really had three different seasons: non-conference play, when he was OK but unspectacular, a stretch early in ACC competition where he played ineffectively through multiple minor injuries and the last 20 games where he's emerged as a possible top-five pick.
Really, it's hard to tell statistically that these stat lines come from the same player:
If we do consider those three different prospects, Winslow's WARP projection is 1.3 from non-conference play (which would rank 35th among prospects in the top 100), 0.8 from the stretch where he dealt with injuries (49th) and 2.3 over the last 19 games (13th, but just behind fellow potential top-five picks Emmanuel Mudiay and Kristaps Porzingis).
I'm not sure we should completely discount the Winslow we saw over the first couple of months. In general, it's not a good idea to throw out data unless it's clearly flawed -- like Winslow's obviously aberrant performance while battling injuries. But this does give statistical backup for what scouts are seeing in Winslow, and frankly anyone who's watched him during the NCAA tournament.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but at this point Dekker might be a touch overrated. For the first time, he's actually higher on your board than mine (15th) since his big NCAA tournament has been built largely on unsustainably hot shooting that hasn't improved his projection. So I would pick Winslow.
Q: What are Winslow's strengths and weaknesses as a pro?
Ford: I think Winslow has several advantages over Dekker that make him the better pro prospect. He has an NBA body and elite athletic ability. Dekker is a very good athlete, but he's not a Justise Winslow-type athlete. Winslow is both incredibly quick and an explosive leaper. I think he plays with one of the best motors in college basketball. He goes all out on every play. He's a good rebounder for his position. He has the ability to be an elite defender who can guard 2s, 3s, and 4s. He's also proven to be a good 3-point shooter when he gets his feet set under him.
The downsides for Winslow primarily center on his total lack of a midrange game. He's shooting 26 percent on his 2-point jumpers this season according to hoop-math.com. That's really, really ugly though that number has improved quite a bit over the past month. He's also a poor free throw shooter. He can be turnover-prone. And if he's a three he's slightly undersized for his position, though his 6-foot-10 wingspan makes up for some of it.
What do the numbers say, Kevin?
Pelton: Remarkably, over the course of the season, Winslow doesn't score as in the top or bottom quarter of incoming NBA small forwards in any key stat. Again, that's different over the second half of the season. His steal rate in particular (3.1 percent of opponents' plays) is elite, and his 56.0 percent 2-point shooting in that span is also very good for a wing.
The biggest concern I see in Winslow's stats is his 64.4 percent free throw shooting. He's been good but not great at the charity stripe since getting healthy (72.0 percent). As I noted recently when projecting R.J. Hunter, free throw percentage is actually a better predictor of NBA 3-point shooting than college 3-point percentage because the samples are usually so small. So don't expect Winslow's 41.7 percent accuracy to carry over.
Q: Who are the comps for Winslow and Dekker?
Ford: A couple of comps come to mind for Winslow. I keep hearing James Harden, but I don't see that, at all. I think he plays with the energy, toughness and has the intangibles of a Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Remember MKG helped UK win a title playing sidekick to Anthony Davis with many saying it was he, not Davis, who was the most important player on that Kentucky team. He ended up going No. 2 overall in a very good draft and one can argue he's the most important player (ESPN's real-plus minus would say the best) on the Hornets at the ripe age of 21. Winslow plays essentially the same function next to Okafor. But he's a better shooter and has a better body.
I think I like the Kawhi Leonard comp even better. Leonard was a little bigger and a little more established, but I think both could have a similar impact on both ends.
Pelton: Here's a scary but true fact: Over the second half of the season, Winslow has posted both steal and block rates better than Kidd-Gilchrist and Leonard did as freshmen. That should speak to his potential. I see the Harden comparison, but only in terms of how they handle the ball, not overall style of play. Similar to Harden, Winslow likes to Eurostep in the open court and has the same habit of carrying the ball with it exposed to defenders, inviting them to foul him.
Leonard does score quite close to Winslow's second half (Kidd-Gilchrist, oddly, is more similar to the overall season). But in either case, the No. 1 comp is Thaddeus Young. If Winslow is Young on offense and Kidd-Gilchrist on defense, that's a valuable player.
Mar 31 Update: Winslow continues to pull ahead of a loaded wing pack that includes Johnson, Kelly Oubre and Mario Hezonja. After they essentially stood neck-and-neck for most of the season, Winslow's strong play in March has put him firmly in the lead among the top wing prospects in the draft. If he nails his workouts, he should be the first wing off the board on draft night.
Winslow continued to show why he's an elite prospect in this year's draft. Next to Sam Dekker, he might be having the best tournament of anyone in our Top 30. I moved him up to No. 6 on our Top 100 last week and it still feels too low. He had a dominant game against Utah, scoring 21 points, grabbing 10 rebounds and shooting 3-for-4 from beyond the arc. On Sunday, he hurt his ankle early in the Gonzaga game and wasn't quite the same, but still managed to score 16 points, grab five rebounds and hit a couple of 3s. He was everywhere at the end of the game and it often feels like Winslow, not Okafor, is the most important player on Duke's roster. Some scouts think he could be another Kawhi Leonard in the NBA. Others see a young Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Either way, he's clearly the No. 1-ranked wing in the Top 100 and I'd be surprised if that changes before the draft.
Mar 23 Update: In the past five months we've had four different wings -- Winslow, Johnson, Oubre and Croatia's Mario Hezonja -- ranked as the top wing on our Big Board. All of them are bunched tightly together in the six to 12 range in our Top 100.
With March Madness the last chance to show scouts what they have to offer on the court, it looks like Winslow might finally be gaining the upper hand.
Winslow spent some of November and all of December ranked as the top wing in the draft. But injuries and some poor shooting hurt his stock in January. Lately, he's been out to prove scouts that their initial ranking of him was the correct one. He's been very convincing playing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to Okafor's Anthony Davis. Winslow scored just six points in a win against Robert Morris, but he had 11 rebounds, seven assists and a block in that 24 minute span. Against San Diego State, he was awesome -- 13 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, three blocks and four steals. He doesn't have to score to impact the game in multiple ways. Scouts were raving about Winslow after the game and if you were to ask me who, out of the elite prospects in the draft, has helped themselves the most in the tournament, right now the answer would be Winslow. If the draft were held today, I think scouts would take him as the first wing.
Mar 19 Update: Winslow is in the running for the best wing in the draft. He's a powerful finisher at the rim and has shown off a better than expected 3-point shot -- it's his midrange game that has been non-existent. He shot a measly 23 percent on his 2-point field goals this season. Still, with his athleticism and intangibles (he's got some Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in him), many scouts believe he might be an elite NBA player someday. He'll go somewhere between No. 6 and 12.
Mar 11 Update: Since recovering from shoulder and rib injuries, Winslow has been the most consistent wing in the draft over the past month. Since February, he has averaged 15.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.4 SPG and is shooting 55 percent from beyond the arc. Even his 2-point jumper percentage is up to 16 percent (still, yikes). Just as important, he has been a major reason why Duke has gone undefeated during that stretch. While he does not get the accolades of Okafor, he has been equally important to the team, and when Okafor was out of the lineup against Clemson, Winslow had 20 points and 13 boards. The same teams that had him ranked as a potential No. 5 or No. 6 pick in the draft in November and December are quietly moving him back up into that range, with a number of scouts praying that a Stanley Johnson-Winslow matchup might be in the cards for the Final Four.
Feb 11 Update: A shoulder injury and some sore ribs took their toll on Winslow's production through much of January. However, he's healthy again and in Duke's current four-game winning streak, he's averaging 15.0 PPG and 9.0 RPG -- and is once again looking like the lottery pick we saw earlier in the season. He still lacks any semblance of a mid-range game right now, but when Winslow is attacking the basket and hitting 3-pointers, he's right there with Hezonja, Johnson and Oubre as the best wing in the draft.
Jan 20 Update: There is a scrum of four wings -- Winslow, Kelly Oubre Jr., Stanley Johnson and Mario Hezonja -- that should go somewhere between six and 12 on draft night. Scouts have been heavily debating who is the best prospect of the four. For the first two months of the season, Winslow was winning that debate. Blessed with elite athleticism, an NBA body and a ton of intangibles that drew comparisons to a young Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Winslow looked like the odds-on favorite to be the first wing to hear his name called on draft night, and he sat for two months as the No. 6-ranked player on our Big Board.
Things have changed. Winslow has been struggling in conference play. After a strong performance in a rout against Boston College and a solid 20-point effort (on 7-for-16 shooting) versus Wake Forest, Winslow's in a horrific shooting slump during his last four games, which came against North Carolina State, Miami, Louisville and Pittsburgh. In those games he's shooting 7-for-29 from the field, 3-for-14 from beyond the arc and 5-for-14 from the free throw line while averaging just above five points.
But that short-term shooting slump isn't really the reason he's starting to slide. Winslow's shooting struggles aren't anything new. Scouts have been watching him closely all season. While his field goal percentage at the rim has hovered around 65 percent, and his 3-point shooting has been bouncing back and forth between 30 and 40 percent, his 2-point jumper percentage has been abysmal. He's shooting 12.5 percent on 2-point jumpers this season. There's no one else on our Big Board who comes close to shooting that poorly from there this season. (Willie Cauley-Stein is the next guy on the board, and he's more than doubled Winslow's shooting percentage on 2-point jumpers.)
And while scouts have expected his numbers to pick up, assuming it was some sort of statistical anomaly, his midrange game appears to have flat-lined, and Winslow is making that shot less and less a part of his arsenal. He now takes just 19.6 percent of his shots as 2-point jumpers -- the fewest among any wings in our Top 30.
Comparing Winslow to Kidd-Gilchrist shows just how badly Winslow is shooting this season. No one thought Kidd-Gilchrist could shoot coming out of the draft. However, MKG shot 35.6 percent on 2-point jumpers his freshman year, 70 percent at the rim and 25.5 percent from 3. While Winslow has proved to be a better 3-point shooter than Kidd-Gilchrist, he's dramatically worse when taking 2-point field goals. The closest "prospect" I could find to Winslow was Kentucky's Andrew Harrison, who is shooting 16.7 percent on 2-point jumpers. Harrison has fallen out of our top 60.
Those challenges could end up putting him behind Johnson (52.7 percent at the rim, 40 percent on 2-point jumpers and 40.4 percent from 3), Oubre (63.3 percent at the rim, 36.8 percent on 2-point jumpers, 42.2 percent from 3) and Hezonja (55.2 percent from 2, 44.4 percent from 3 in Euroleague) on draft night. Accordingly, he's dropped several spots on our Top 100.
Jan 6 Update: Winslow continues to have the slight edge over Kelly Oubre, Mario Hezonja and Stanley Johnson as the first wing off the board. Winslow is now shooting 39 percent from 3, a rate that has scouts really encouraged. And he's shooting an impressive 71 percent at the rim. But his field-goal percentage on 2-point shots is an awful 12 percent. Figuring out some semblance of a midrange game is going to be a key for Winslow going forward.
Dec 17 Update: Winslow still has the slight edge over Stanley Johnson and Mario Hezonja as the first wing off the board. Johnson has put up slightly better numbers and Mario Hezonja is starting to emerge in Barcelona, but Winslow is the player with the best blend of athleticism, toughness and leadership. Still, there's one number that has scouts concerned. He's shooting just 13 percent from the field on his 2-point jumpers. Scouts are definitely in three different camps about which player will be the best long-term pro, but Winslow edges them by a nose right now.
Dec 2 Update: Winslow has generated a lot of love from scouts the past few weeks with his combination of toughness and leadership on the court. He appears to be the soul of the Blue Devils, and the comparisons to a young Michael Kidd-Gilchrist appear apt. But not everything is rosy for Winslow right now. Everyone is focusing on his 39 percent shooting from beyond the arc. That's a much better number than scouts were expecting. But his 2-point jump shooting has been awful. Twenty-one percent of his shots have been 2-point jumpers, and he's shooting just 15 percent on them. There is major room improvement there.
Nov 26 Update: I mentioned Winslow in my Stock Watch last week. But after a couple more performances by Winslow since then, he's worth mentioning again. The freshman is averaging 15.4 PPG and 5.8 RPG. Those numbers aren't particularly gaudy, but watch Winslow up close and you see that he's the heart and soul of this Blue Devils team, much like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was for Kentucky a few years ago. Winslow has all of those similar intangibles and scouts are almost uniformly in love. If he keeps playing like this all year, he's got a chance to be a top-five pick. The key number for him is to keep shooting around 39 percent from 3-point range. If Winslow can be even a marginal threat from beyond the arc, he could be a special pro.
Nov 19 Update: vs. MSU: 15 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 4-for-11 shooting in 30 minutes
Winslow was probably the second most talked about prospect here by scouts, who were impressed with his overall game. He's been terrific in all three games for Duke and was better than the box score indicated on Tuesday night. He has size, athleticism, plays with a terrific motor, can get to the basket and was showing an improved jump shot. He affects the game in so many ways. If he continues to play this way all season, I think he's got a chance to be the first wing off our board -- ahead of KU's Kelly Oubre, Arizona's Stanley Johnson and Croatia's Mario Hezonja.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: A Winslow has been terrific in his first two games at Duke. He's averaging 16.5 PPG, 5 RPG, 1.5 APG and is 3-for-5 from beyond the arc. That last number may be the most critical for Winslow. He obviously has the NBA body and athleticism for the position. He has the motor, as well. If he can consistently hit the 3, he's a top 10 pick. A small handful of scouts thought he was a better NBA prospect than Stanley Johnson. Again, the sample size is very, very small, but so far, Winslow is making his case.
Nov 6 Update: Some scouts think Winslow is a lottery pick; others are concerned that he's really a short power forward trying to masquerade as a wing. I love Winslow's NBA-ready body, athleticism and toughness. He can defend multiple positions, which NBA teams love. Like so many players on this list, much of his success will hang on whether his jump shot is falling.
Sept. 9 Update: Stanley Johnson might have taken home MVP honors at the Under-18s, but Winslow wasn't far behind him averaging 12.4 PPG and 6.0 RPG for Team USA this summer. Johnson also shot a better percentage from the field -- both in 2-point field goals and 3s. But like Johnson, teams still want to see a more consistent perimeter game from him. And he's going to have to start hitting his free throws. Winslow was a miserable 7-for-18 from the line this summer.
July 16 Update: Winslow is blessed with an NBA body, strength and athleticism. He plays with great energy on both ends of the floor. He's the Michael Kidd-Gilchrist of this draft and should be a big-time player for Duke this year. His jump shot and handle are his biggest weaknesses right now, though it appears he's improved his jump shot already this summer. If he starts shooting it well, he could move up another three or four spots on our board.
April 15 Update: Winslow was perhaps the best player on Team USA at the Nike Hoop Summit. He's just not the best prospect. He ended the game with 16 points and six rebounds on 7-for-15 shooting. Winslow has the body of a chiseled NBA power forward, but he's just 6-foot-6. He uses his strength and athleticism combined with a great motor to dominate other players. But his skill set is still a work in progress. He needs a more consistent jump shot and handle.
That said, it's hard to dismiss Winslow. He and Okafor were the best players for the Team USA under-19 team in Prague, and he really pushed them over the top in the Hoop Summit. Duke fans are going to love him the same way Kentucky fans loved Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. But will NBA teams love him? The jury is still out there.
8 Willie Cauley-Stein 21 C 7-1 242 Kentucky Top 10 Pick
June 18 Update: He's freakishly athletic, and he moves laterally as well as any big man I've ever seen (that includes Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond). He's bouncy and just glides up and down the floor. There's a reason teams think he might be able to guard all five positions on the floor, and everything he did in Los Angeles confirmed that ability. He's also gotten bigger. He's bulked up considerably over the past few months without losing any of his explosiveness.
May 18 Update: "He's different, man," one NBA GM said. "And I don't know we know what to do with that." That statement was repeated over and over again this weekend by NBA scouts and GMs after sitting with Cauley-Stein in interviews. That talent? NBA teams, almost universally, believe he has the chance to be a transcendent defender in the NBA. "He could be the best defender the league someday. He has abilities, both physically and the way he reads the defense, that I've never seen in a prospect." But his personality isn't that of your typical jock and NBA teams are trying to come to grips with it. He was grilled on why he dyed his hair blonde, why he legally changed his name to TRILL, whether he loved art more than he loved the game. Cauley-Stein was passionate in interviews that he loves the game and it's the most important thing to him. But virtually all the teams I spoke with had reservations. Sometimes serious ones. "The potential's there for him to be one of the two or three best players in the draft. The potential's also there for him to be Larry Sanders. From day to day, we keep going back and forth between the two." It will be fascinating to see where he lands. I could see him going as high as No. 6 to the Kings or as low as No. 11 to the Pacers.
Apr 29 Update: If Towns, Okafor, Mudiay and Russell make up the first tier of this draft, then Cauley-Stein, Hezonja, Winslow and Porzingis make up a very strong second tier. Cauley-Stein may be the best defender in the draft, with the unique versatility to guard five positions on the floor. The big thing scouts will look for in workouts will have little to do with what happens on the court. They still are most interested in Cauley-Stein the person. Numerous GMs said it will be the interviews, psych tests and background checks that will determine where he goes. "I want to believe, after everything I've seen this season that he does have a passion for the game," one GM said. "But we're going to employ all the resources we have including testing and our investigators to make sure he does. It takes a lot of commitment to be great in our league and we just want to make sure he has it."
Apr 9 Update: Cauley-Stein has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Cauley-Stein may very well turn out to be the best defender in the draft. He's been ranked as a lottery pick since his freshman year, but took his game to another level as a junior. While his offensive game is still a work in progress, his ability to guard all five positions on the floor is what makes him so coveted by NBA scouts. He should go in the 6 to 10 range in June.
Apr 8 Update: Cauley-Stein had a disappointing performance (2 points, 5 rebounds, 2 blocks) against Wisconsin in the Final Four. Cauley-Stein's detractors can easily point to this game to show how much he still struggles to score and how his laid-back approach can even hurt his amazing defensive potential. His fans will point out that he can completely take over the game with his defensive prowess, and although he's a major work in progress offensively, his defensive potential is so high that he's worth the risk. He should land in the Nos. 6-to-12 range.
Mar 31 Update: Cauley-Stein continues to be quiet offensively, but on defense he continues to amaze. He made two crazy great plays at the end of the game against Notre Dame to help the Wildcats seal the victory, including a blocked shot on a Jerian Grant 3-pointer with 38 seconds left and then staying with Grant the length of the floor to make sure his last-second shot to win the game from the corner was contested. There are very few 7-footers in the world who can switch like that and keep pace with Grant, one of the more athletic guards in the country.
Mar 23 Update: Cauley-Stein was quiet offensively, but had 11 rebounds and two blocks in 21 minutes against Hampton and nine points, two rebounds and two blocks versus Cincinnati. Again, the physicality of the Bearcats gave him some issues, but he still played elite defense the entire game and had yet another highlight reel posterization of a Bearcats player. His draft stock remains unchanged as well. He should go somewhere in the six to 10 range.
Mar 16 Update: Cauley-Stein is still a work in progress offensively, but he's one of the most unique defensive prospects to come along in a while. It's not an exaggeration to say that Cauley-Stein, despite standing 7 feet tall, can completely shut down all five positions on the floor. There are 30 NBA coaches who want to sign up for that. He should fall somewhere between picks Nos. 6 and 12.
Mar 12 Update: Question: Why hasn't Willie Cauley-Stein's rise up draft boards been mirrored by his WARP projection?
Kevin Pelton: No top upperclassman has done more to solidify his draft stock this season than Cauley-Stein, the junior center from Kentucky who is the only non-freshman NCAA player in the top 10 on Chad's most recent big board. Yet Cauley-Stein wasn't in the top 30 of my statistical big board; he currently ranks 44th in terms of projected WARP (1.2), a discrepancy that's worth considering.
From the perspective of box-score stats, Cauley-Stein hasn't improved dramatically from his sophomore season. While he's playing a larger role in the UK offense despite all the talent around him, Cauley-Stein has seen his block rate drop nearly by half from his sophomore season. So factoring in age, his projection is actually slightly worse than it was a year ago. What have scouts seen that has helped boost his stock?
Chad Ford: The raw appeal has nothing to really do with his box-score stats. It's the siren song of a super athletic 7-footer with the agility to defend, perhaps, all five positions on the floor. Those guys come along ... well, never. That's why he's in the conversation for a top-10 pick. He's inconsistent offensively, but his defensive upside is off the charts.
Question: What are Cauley-Stein's strengths and weaknesses?
Pelton: The big positive with Cauley-Stein is something my projection system usually loves: steal rate. Among players listed as centers in my database, Cauley-Stein's projected steal percentage (1.7 percent) would rank third behind DeJuan Blair and Nerlens Noel. In terms of both projected steal percentage and block percentage (4.4 percent), just two players can beat Cauley-Stein: Kentucky predecessors Noel and Anthony Davis.
The difference between Cauley-Stein and those players is on the glass. His projected defensive rebound percentage (15.9 percent) would be the worst of any NBA-bound center in my database. Cauley-Stein has had plenty of competition for rebounds from his teammates, including Noel, Julius Randle and now Karl-Anthony Towns. An adjustment for that competition is one reason Cauley-Stein scores so much better in Layne Vashro's draft projections. Still, it's hard to project Cauley-Stein as even an average rebounder in the NBA.
Ford: Cauley-Stein projects as a versatile, elite defender who has, time and time again, shut down the opposing team's best player when he's hot. I think he's a much better shot-blocker than his stats show this season. He's typically on the floor with another elite shot-blocker, Towns. With Towns protecting the rim, head coach John Calipari has used Cauley-Stein in all sorts of creative ways, including chasing players down on the perimeter and funneling them into a waiting Towns. If Towns wasn't on this team, Cauley-Stein would be used differently (like he was last season with Julius Randle) and his blocks would be way up.
While you're concerned about his rebounding numbers, it's his offense (or lack thereof) that scares me. He's still, three years into his college career, a major work in progress on offense. He's great in the open floor and alley-oops. He's showing the beginnings of a nice mid-range jumper. But his post game is still very raw and his shot selection can be highly questionable. He's going to be an offensive liability for a while.
The other knock you'll occasionally hear about Cauley-Stein is his personality. He's quirky and his entire life doesn't just center on basketball the way it does for so many other top prospects. That scares teams and makes them wonder whether he'll have the drive to improve his game at the next level.
Question: What is an NBA comparison for Cauley-Stein?
Pelton: SCHOENE's best comp for Cauley-Stein at the same age is former Florida State center Solomon Alabi, who played two seasons for the Toronto Raptors but never stuck in the NBA. The next two players are more encouraging: Larry Sanders and Joakim Noah. Throwing out age, Minnesota Timberwolves center Gorgui Dieng was a good match, though he was a year and a half older and has evolved into a better offensive player in the pros (but a weaker defender) than his college stats suggested. Subjectively, I think like Cauley-Stein could be a rich man's version of Ryan Hollins. Is that selling him short, Chad?
Ford: I think so. He'd better be better than Hollins or Alabi if he's going to be a top-10 pick. I hear Tyson Chandler comps a lot from NBA teams. Sanders, too. I actually think Noel might be the right comp -- an agile, versatile, athletic big man who can collect high rates of blocks and steals but struggles to score.
Mar 11 Update: Cauley-Stein is the most versatile defensive big man in the country. Offensively, he's still a major work in progress, but lately he's started hitting midrange jumpers. Despite the fact that he's a junior, NBA scouts still mention upside when talking about Cauley-Stein. He may never average 10 PPG in the NBA, but his defensive versatility alone may make him worth a top-10 pick.
Feb 24 Update: Cauley-Stein's season numbers (9.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) certainly don't scream top-10 pick -- especially for a junior. Kevin Pelton's Statistical Big Board doesn't have him in the top 30. But scouts are seeing something very different. Cauley-Stein's unique combination of athleticism and size makes him a potential dominant defensive force who can defend multiple positions on the floor. We already knew he was an amazing finisher in transition and off lobs. Until recently, the rest of his offensive repertoire was a major work in progress, but Cauley-Stein has been surprising scouts lately by showing off a midrange jump shot in limited quantities. This season, 37 percent of the shots Cauley-Stein takes are 2-point jumpers, and he's shooting a respectable 35 percent this season. That number has been going up all season. If Cauley-Stein can figure out any semblance of a 10-foot jumper, he has the chance to be great.
Feb 11 Update: Cauley-Stein continues to be a bit inconsistent, but he does things that no other 7-footer in college basketball can do right now -- and it's the little things that keep him in the discussion for a top-10 pick. Whether it's his ability to defend four to five positions on the floor, or a highlight-reel dunk (against Florida that looked staged in a dunk contest), or a strong 15-point, seven-rebound, three-block performance against LSU's athletic front line -- the combination of size and athleticism is just too tantalizing for most teams to pass up.
Jan 28 Update: Cauley-Stein has been considered a potential lottery pick since his freshman year, but he's finally living up to the hype. His game continues to mature and scouts are more comfortable saying he'll be an elite defender in the NBA -- someone who has the rare ability to guard centers and wings. However, Cauley-Stein's offensive numbers, after spiking a bit in mid-December, have been pretty dismal of late. He had just two points against South Carolina, six points against Vanderbilt, four against Texas A&M and five against Louisville. Exactly how high can a player go who struggles to score in the double digits as a college junior? The Kentucky platoon surely has something to do with it, but he's still averaging nearly 25 minutes per game in conference play.
Jan 6 Update: Cauley-Stein had a five-game stretch (against Texas, Eastern Kentucky, Columbia, North Carolina and UCLA) where he looked like the best player on the floor for Kentucky. He came back down to earth a bit against a physical and athletic Louisville team, which proved to scouts that he still has lot of developing to do. But as long as he continues to show more toughness and consistency, he's a lock for a top-10 pick. His ability to guard four or five positions on the floor is truly unique.
Dec 22 Update: Cauley-Stein's draft stock has made a huge jump over the past few weeks. We've always known he's a freaky athlete and a defensive monster. When he and Towns are on the floor together, it's almost impossible for teams to score in the paint. But this season, Cauley-Stein has shown more aggressiveness offensively, and overall he's played with more fire. His ability to run the floor for a player his size is elite. Against UCLA on Saturday he had eight points, five rebounds, four blocks and two steals. A few scouts believe he could end up going as high as No. 5 in the draft. The majority, however, think that his lack of offensive polish, his age and his unusual personality may cause him to land in the 8-10 range. Either way, it's looking like he's a top-10 pick.
"He has the potential to be an elite NBA defender," an NBA scout said. "I don't think we're expecting a lot of offense from him, but I could see him having a career like Tyson Chandler. I actually think he's a better shot-blocker than Tyson. He's not a gym rat and that's going to turn off some NBA guys because they'll wonder if he'll put in the work. But there's so much to work with there. I love him."
Dec 17 Update: Cauley-Stein is having the best two weeks of his college basketball career. He had an amazing 21-point, 12-rebound, 3-block, 5-steal performance against Texas' huge front line. He posted another double-double against Columbia, and against North Carolina on Saturday he had 15 points, 6 rebounds, 2 blocks and 4 steals. After sitting in the late lottery for the past two years, he's finally started to live up to that potential scouts saw in him as a freshman. Not only has Cauley-Stein continued his elite defensive presence, but he's become more active offensively and shown a more consistent motor and toughness. He has become the unlikely leader of this Kentucky team and scouts are taking note of it. While he's still somewhat limited offensively and will turn 22 in August, scouts still believe he has the potential to be a starting center in the NBA in the mode of Tyson Chandler.
Dec 2 Update: Kentucky actually has a whopping four players with a 30 or higher PER after seven games. No other team in the NCAA is even close. Cauley-Stein is one of those four, despite posting the lowest usage rate of any of the players on our Big Board. Cauley-Stein continues to be efficient doing what he does well -- rebounding, blocking shots and scoring at the rim. At this point, no one thinks he's going to amount to much offensively, but he has the potential to be a defensive monster in the NBA.
Nov 19 Update: vs. Kansas: 7 points, 10 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 1 block, 3-for-7 shooting in 21 minutes
We saw the same old Cauley-Stein on Tuesday -- elite defender, very raw offensive player. Nothing has really changed and at this point, I doubt it will. His size and defense alone should land him somewhere in the late lottery to mid-first round.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: B Another year, same story for Cauley-Stein. He's been a dominant rebounder and shot-blocker this season, but continues to lack much of an offensive game. He's averaging 9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.5 BPG and 2.5 SPG on 70 percent shooting so far. One nice early sign is an uptick in assists. Cauley-Stein is averaging 2.5 APG in UK's first two games.
Oct 31 Update: Cauley-Stein continued to show improvement as a sophomore, especially on the defensive end -- where he became an elite shot-blocker. He is incredibly quick and fluid for a player his size but still lacks the offensive polish or basketball IQ scouts are hoping to see. If he makes major strides as a junior, he could still be a top 10 pick. If he disappoints, a team may be unwilling to let it slide this year. You get only two years of being the upside guy. This season Cauley-Stein will have to produce.
Oct 12 Update: Cauley-Stein finally looks healthy again. While he didn't necessarily show off much offensively (scouts' biggest knock against him), his athletic testing was also off the charts. He had a 37-inch vertical, the second-fastest spring time on the team and fourth-fastest lane agility score. Those are incredible numbers for a 7-footer.
Oct 2 Update: For two straight years, scouts have been drooling over Cauley-Stein's upside. Blessed with size, length and the fluidity of a guard, he has all the physical tools to be a great NBA player. But his game was always quite a bit behind his tools. Cauley-Stein was a late bloomer as a player, and the consistency and feel for the game, especially on the offensive game, haven't been there. His points per game, field goal percentage, rebounds and assists per game all dipped as a sophomore in roughly the same minutes. However, his blocks, steals and free throw percentage improved. I'm guessing those improvements helped him in your metrics. He's been injured all summer, so it's tough to gauge what progress he's made as a player, and with Dakari Johnson (who started over Cauley-Stein last year) coming back and Karl-Anthony Towns (who is ranked No. 3 on our Big Board) both on the roster, I wonder if he'll have the space to really shine.
Pelton: The stats align pretty closely with the scouting consensus on Cauley-Stein. His translated block rate would rank among the top 20 in my college database, and of that group, just two players -- Kentucky predecessors Anthony Davis and Nerlens Noel -- had better translated steal rates. Besides his nonscoring, the other statistical concern with Cauley-Stein is a relatively poor defensive rebound rate for a center. Forward Alex Poythress was as effective on the defensive glass last season. That could make Cauley-Stein the new Ryan Hollins -- though Hollins has carved out a long career as a backup. My No. 2 prospect is someone whom Cauley-Stein's Wildcats faced in last year's Final Four.
Sept. 9 Update: Cauley-Stein had to skip Kentucky's trip to the Bahamas. He's still recovering from mid-April ankle surgery. He did get in some workouts in-between games and looks like he'll be totally ready to go for the regular season. Cauley-Stein is now a veteran and they'll be no more "upside" type passes for him this year. He's a tremendous talent and shot blocker who has been a late bloomer. If he has a coming out party this season, he's a top-10 pick. Few players combine his type of size and athleticism.
July 16 Update: Cauley-Stein is a junior and people are still raving about his upside. Scouts still believe Cauley-Stein could be special. He's a late bloomer who has been learning the game at Kentucky. As he's gotten stronger and more confident, he's turned into a terrific shot-blocker and defender. If Cauley-Stein can show some major improvement offensively this season, he'll have a good shot of cracking the lottery.
April 14 Update: Cauley-Stein announced he's returning to Kentucky for his junior season. For the second straight year Cauley-Stein has passed up a chance to be a late-lottery to mid-first-round pick to return to Kentucky. Cauley-Stein could use the time in school. While he's an elite shot-blocker, his offensive game needs a lot of work. Another year at Kentucky might not help his draft stock but it could make him much more NBA-ready.
April 8 Update: Cauley-Stein hasn't gotten the draft bump that the other UK players have received, thanks to an ankle injury that kept him out of the final three games of the NCAA tournament. He's still so raw offensively, but his shot-blocking ability and lateral quickness have scouts interested in him as a rim protector. Bigs tend to rise in the draft. I could see him going anywhere from 12 to 24 on draft night.
Mar 28 Update: Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton break down the draft prospects of all the Kentucky players using both analytics and scouting tools in our latest Eyes, Ears and Numbers column.
Mar 25 Update: Willie Cauley-Stein is the other UK player who deserves mention here. He's scored only six points in the tournament so far, but he has five blocks and 10 rebounds. While he looks miles away offensively, he's so fluid and athletic and such a terrific rim protector that some teams will take a serious look at him late in the lottery to mid-first round.
Mar 5 Update: Cauley-Stein hasn't necessarily been lighting it up, but his size, shot-blocking ability and upside still make him an intriguing prospect for a team like the Suns. He's not yet ready for the NBA, but the basic building blocks are there, and he's worth a gamble to the Suns at this draft spot.
Feb 11 Update: After virtually disappearing for a month, Cauley-Stein has played two straight terrific games against Ole Miss and Mississippi State. His 18 points, 11 rebounds and six blocks against Ole Miss may have been the best game of his career. The raw tools are all there to be a very good NBA player, it's just consistency that he lacks right now.
Jan 29 Update: Cauley-Stein has been in a major funk of late. In his last four games, he's hit just four field goals, collected just 13 rebounds and, with the exception of a six-block game against Georgia, hasn't really been blocking shots either. Teams have always been intrigued with his combination of length and athleticism, but he has to start showing some heart or he'll start plummeting.
Jan 23 Update: The Timberwolves rank dead last in the NBA in shot blocking. There aren't a lot of great shot-blockers in this draft, but Cauley-Stein has a lot of potential here. He's thin and still a major work in progress offensively, but he should be able to provide some rim protection on a team that desperately needs it.
Dec 17 Update: Cauley-Stein still isn't a dominant player on the offensive end, but one thing he's improved on significantly is blocking shots. This season, he ranks 10th in the country in block percentage, scoring a block on 14.7 percent of opponent's two-point shots.
Dec 2 Update: Scouts were down early on Cauley-Stein after a so-so start to the season offensively (he didn't crack double digits in scoring in his first four games). However, he's come on strong lately for Kentucky. In his past four games, he's averaged 13.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and just over five blocks per game. He's still pretty far from being a dominant player offensively, but if he can maintain those sorts of numbers all season, he's going to be back in the conversation as a lottery pick.
Nov. 27 Update: Cauley-Stein's appeal to the NBA is still primarily about potential. He's long, athletic and a fluid athlete. But he's still pretty raw. He has moved back to a sixth-man role after beginning the season as a starter, and he has thrived there. Although his offense is still a work in progress, he's much improved as a rebounder this season. Scouts are willing to be patient with him, given his physical tools, so expect him to hang around in the 20s for a while until we can get a better read.
Nov. 13 Update: Cauley-Stein wasn't bad on Tuesday. But he wasn't particularly great, either. For a player who faces such high expectations, his play was a bit of a disappointment. Like Harrison, it's too early to make any major decisions based on what we saw, but it looks like the learning curve for Cauley-Stein still is pretty steep.
Nov. 12 Update: Cauley-Stein is facing major expectations this year, but of all the elite players on the team, he remains the biggest work in progress. His opening game was a mixed bag. Offensively, he struggled with just three points on 1-of-3 shooting. However, he stuffed the rest of the stat sheet with six rebounds, four assists, four blocks and three steals in 18 minutes. He had seven points and 11 rebounds against Northern Kentucky in the second game of the weekend. I've detected some resistance and doubt of late from NBA GMs regarding Cauley-Stein, but the raw talent is clearly there.
Nov. 8 Update: Cauley-Stein showed enormous promise as a freshman, but as a sophomore he's going to have to start living up to it. The expectations for Kentucky are as high as they can possibly be, and he has a freshman, Dakari Johnson, breathing down his neck. For many scouts, he's still a wild card in this draft. If he gets it, he could be a very special player. But there are still a lot of ifs.
Sept. 9 Update: The Blazers actually are trying to make the playoffs in a very crowded Western Conference. But if they don't, the draft is the upside. Cauley-Stein hasn't even begun to realize his potential. He was very raw at Kentucky last season, but when he got it going, everyone could easily see great things to come. The Blazers don't really need another center, but Cauley-Stein's versatility might allow him to back up LaMarcus Aldridge.
Aug 13 Update: Cauley-Stein made a really wise decision to return for his sophomore season. The long, lanky big man has enormous talent. He's just very raw. Another year at Kentucky, this time surrounded with big-time talent, should help him to have a breakout year. In fact, if Cauley-Stein really takes off and maximizes his traits, we might have him way too low.
April 1 Update: Cauley-Stein announced on Monday that he was returning to UK for his sophomore season. Cauley-Stein wasn't ranked nearly as highly as the other three elite incoming Kentucky freshmen, but as the season wore on it became clear that he had enough talent to hang with all of them. He has the requisite size, length and athleticism to play in the NBA. And as the season wore on, you could see his basketball IQ starting to catch up with his physical attributes. Given all the talent he'll be surrounded with next season at Kentucky, I wouldn't be surprised if he was a Top 10 pick in 2014.
Mar 26 Update: After showing some initial promise replacing Nerlens Noel, the wheels came off a bit at the end. Cauley-Stein is clearly skilled, but wasn't really able to assert himself on either end of the floor in losses to Vanderbilt and Robert Morris. He is saying that he's returning to Kentucky for his sophomore season. It would be a great move if he does. Unlike his other teammates, Cauley-Stein will have a chance to start next season and would clearly benefit from having more talent around him. He could still be a lottery pick in 2014. If he declares now, he goes somewhere in the mid-to-late first round.
Mar 13 Update: He's raw. So raw. But you can't teach many of the things Cauley-Stein brings to the table. He really should go back to school for another year under coach John Calipari. But if he comes out now, someone is going to gamble on his combination of length and agility in the first round.
Feb 27 Update: After moving Cauley-Stein up our board in the wake of the Nerlens Noel injury, he responded with a major dud -- a two-point, two-rebound performance against Tennessee. Since then, however, he's starting to live up to his potential. He was awesome against Vanderbilt, scoring 20 points, grabbing 7 boards and blocking 3 shots. While he was not as dominant on the offensive end against Missouri (just seven points) he grabbed 12 boards and blocked seven shots against the Tigers. If his game continues to mature, he has all of the abilities of a top-10 pick.
Jan 30 Update: Cauley-Stein hasn't played in four games thanks to a knee injury but is getting close to returning. How did he move up the board without playing a game? He's actually still a little on the low side right now. A number of NBA guys insist that when teams get to workouts, Cauley-Stein could be a lottery pick if he declares. Others say if he waits a year, he'll be a top-five lock.
Dec 31 Update: Cauley-Stein was a bit of an afterthought going into the season. Considered by most to be a long-term project, Cauley-Stein wasn't expected to have the impact that Kentucky's three higher rated freshmen -- Nerlens Noel, Alex Poythress and Archie Goodwin -- were supposed to have. However, since Day 1, Cauley-Stein is proving to have similar talent to Noel, Poythress and Goodwin. In fact, Cauley-Stein is now in the starting lineup for Kentucky, and against Louisville he was terrific, scoring six points, grabbing eight boards and blocking three shots in 23 minutes. Noel, Poythress and Goodwin are all virtual locks to be selected in the lottery. If Cauley-Stein keeps up this learning curve, he could join them in the Green Room this June.
Nov 15 Update: Cauley-Stein didn't get nearly the hype that Nerlens Noel did in high school. He was a late bloomer who didn't really start to come into his own until his senior year. But Kentucky has been raving about him since practice started, and after the Wildcats' first two games, it's pretty clear he's going to get a lot of interest from NBA scouts. He's long, a fluid athlete and shows so much potential on the offensive end. Even though he's coming off the bench as a sixth man, I would not be shocked to see Cauley-Stein in the lottery on draft night. There's just too much raw talent there for NBA scouts to pass on him.
Sept 18 Update: Cauley isn't getting the hype of his teammate, Nerlens Noel, but he's a talent and one that could surprise a lot of people if Noel can't get eligible. He's long, athletic and really runs the floor well. He's raw offensively, but most big men are at this stage. He's gotten dramatically better in high school and if he keeps up the development curve, Calapari might just have another NBA prospect on his hands.
9 Trey Lyles 19 PF 6-10 242 Kentucky Top 10 Pick
June 18 Update: Lyles continues one of the quietest campaigns in recent memory to be a lottery pick. There's zero buzz about him, but when you press NBA teams, virtually all of them have him ranked somewhere in the lottery on their boards. Figuring out where he finally lands is the question.
May 18 Update: I was surprised by how consistently teams had Lyles ranked in the lottery (many in the top 10) this week. Especially when you ask them why and their answers sound a lot like this: "I'm not sure how good he can be," one NBA scout said. "But at his size and abilities, I think you have to seriously think about gambling on him earlier rather than later. He comes with more risks, but he's a sexier pick than Bobby Portis, I think." I get the feeling that teams aren't exactly sure what they have in Lyles, but as they look over the rest of the board, his upside is more appealing than anything that's left.
Apr 29 Update: Lyles is the subject of significant debate among scouts. Some still believe that had he played for a school with less talent he would've put up a much more impressive freshman season and would be a lottery pick. Others think that his lack of elite athleticism or size for his position means he's closer to a solid rotation player in the NBA than a star. We split the difference here on Lyles. Showing more athletic ability in the combine could help his stock.
Apr 9 Update: Lyles has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Lyles played a more complimentary role on Kentucky this year, but that hasn't stopped scouts from drooling over what he might become once he starts playing his true position, power forward, in the NBA. He's an old-school power forward who makes up for his lack of elite athleticism with a high basketball IQ, an array of moves in the post, and a very solid mid-range game. He should go in the 13 to 20 range.
Apr 8 Update: Lyles really came on for Kentucky down the stretch, though his nine-point, one-rebound game against Wisconsin wasn't particularly memorable. While he could clearly use another season at Kentucky to polish his game, most NBA scouts value Lyles' ability to score in the post and in the midrange area and believe he'll be better in the NBA as a 4 in the mold of Carlos Boozer. He's in the 13-to-20 range.
Mar 31 Update: Lyles continues to make his push into the late lottery as well. He scored 14 points and grabbed seven boards against West Virginia, and had nine points and five rebounds against Notre Dame. What especially intrigues scouts is Lyles' footwork and skill in the post. He's been playing out of position at small forward all season for the Wildcats, and scouts believe the post will be his home in the pros. Those little glimpses of his play there are what keep him in the discussion for the late lottery.
Mar 23 Update: Trey Lyles has been one of Kentucky's strongest players over the past few weeks and that continued in the tournament. He had 10 points and six rebounds versus Hampton and 11 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks versus Cincinnati. He's essentially flip-flopped with Booker as the Wildcat most likely to be drafted after Cauley-Stein and Towns are off the board. He's now in the 13 to 18 range.
Mar 16 Update: Lyles also has a chance to go in the late lottery, as a combo forward with a killer midrange jumper. They're both in the 12-to-20 range.
Mar 11 Update: Lyles has been a revelation for the Wildcats in three of their last four games. He had 18 points versus both Mississippi State and Arkansas and posted 14 points against Florida. Next to Towns, he's the best offensive big man on the team. What's special about Lyles is his sophisticated midrange game. He's money from 18 feet and is shooting an impressive 45 percent on his 2-point jumpers this season. More and more scouts are talking about Lyles potentially being Kentucky's fourth lottery pick in this draft.
Feb 11 Update: Lyles missed the past three games for Kentucky with a mystery illness before returning Tuesday against LSU. He has gone seven games without scoring in double figures (and has scored in double figures just five times all season). Some of that is due to the incredible depth at Kentucky, as Lyles is far from the focal point on offense. The question is where to slot him. The talent and skill level are high, but he really hasn't gotten to show it off this season.
Jan 6 Update: Getting a great read on Lyles' draft stock has proven to be tricky. Some scouts believe he's a lottery pick. Others believe he's more of a late first-round pick. Nothing he's done this season seems to be moving the needle much in either direction. So take this ranking with a grain of salt. He could be five spots higher or lower on draft night. One area that has really stood out is his midrange game. Lyles takes 47.5 percent of his shots in this range, shooting 50 percent. Combine that with his numbers at the rim (81 percent) and Lyles is very efficient. His 3-point shot has been way off this season (14 percent), but at the next level, his ability to shoot that midrange jumper will be big.
Dec 22 Update: Lyles isn't a dynamic athlete like Towns or Cauley-Stein, nor does he have elite length. But he's the most offensively skilled big man for Kentucky. He has a high basketball IQ, can shoot and post up. He rarely makes a bad play. Lyles had nine points, four rebounds and two assists versus UCLA. His lack of incredible athleticism means his stock is a little lower than that of Towns or Cauley-Stein. Some scouts have him ranked just outside the lottery. Others have him ranked as a late first-rounder. One scout who was particularly high on Lyles compared him to a young Juwan Howard.
"When you see him on the floor with Towns and Cauley-Stein playing small forward, you forget that he's 6-foot-9 or 6-foot-10. He looks like a wing out there running around," one GM said, chuckling. "He'll be a power forward in the NBA, and I think that will help his draft stock. As long as he doesn't have to guard NBA wings, I think he'll be very good."
Dec 17 Update: No one should benefit more from the loss of Alex Poythress (who tore his ACL last week) than Lyles. In Kentucky's first game without Poythress, Lyles moved into the starting lineup and seems poised to break out now. Although he isn't the defensive presence Poythress is, he's as skilled offensively as anyone on the team. With more minutes and more touches, he should be able to make a push for the lottery.
Dec 2 Update: Next to Towns, Lyles might be the most skilled offensive player on the Wildcats. What he lacks in elite athletic ability he makes up for with a high basketball IQ that few freshmen possess. One area of concern, however, is his jump shot. He's shooting just 19 percent from beyond the arc right now.
Nov 19 Update: vs. Kansas: 4 points, 4 rebounds, 1-for-5 shooting in 19 minutes
Lyles was generating some buzz after his first two games, but couldn't get his jumper to fall against Kansas. Still, you see the high basketball IQ there and he looked good. I think he's on the cusp of a lottery pick to mid-first-round pick. His lack of elite athleticism limits his ceiling somewhat, but there's a lot of talent there.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: A- Lyles has been terrific early for Kentucky, averaging 13 PPG and shooting 67 percent from the field. He's clearly one of the most skilled freshmen in the country. The questions on Lyles center on his lack of elite athleticism. Still, if he's going to play this well all season, he may be a lottery pick.
Oct 12 Update: Freshman forward Trey Lyles also drew praise. He struggled at the Nike Hoop Summit, causing a number of GMs and scouts to question whether he'd be an elite NBA prospect. His performance this weekend, though, helped put him back in the conversation.
Sept 12 Update: Big man Dakari Johnson also seemed like a lock for the top 30, but with the strong play of Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein returning from injury, there's question marks about how many minutes he'll get.
That's the problem for both Marcus Lee and freshman Trey Lyles. If they were playing on virtually any other team, they would be the focal point of the team and would probably be ranked 10 to 15 spots higher on the draft board. While both players should get minutes, their role will be more limited.
April 15 Update: Lyles is one of the top players in high school and bears a passing resemblance to Carlos Boozer both physically and somewhat in his game. He's not as skilled as Boozer was, but he is a forward with a high basketball IQ who uses strength and basketball knowledge to beat down his opponents. He's not a great athlete, plays below the rim and was generally disappointing all week in Portland, though he did finish with a game-high 11 rebounds.
10 Myles Turner 19 PF 6-11 239 Texas Top 10 Pick
June 18 Update: Turner is another player hoping to have a coming-out party in Las Vegas on Friday. He'll join Porzingis in that big workout in front of a number of top NBA GMs and scouts. Turner has been working on his athleticism and his running technique, and the word from trainer Joe Abunassar is that he's improved significantly. Given Turner's size, skill set and potential, he could be a real draft sleeper. On pure upside, he's a top-five talent.
May 18 Update: Turner showed up at the combine and nailed his interviews. "He's a highly intelligent, thoughtful guy," said one GM, and spent much of his time, along with his camp, quieting concerns about his biomechanical issues. NBA doctors got a look at him this weekend and if they say the same thing that Turner's doctors are saying (that his knees are fine, and that his running issues are pretty easily corrected), he's going to rise. I think he's the last player on the board who could end up cracking the top five. "He's a long 7-footer who can stretch the floor and really protect the rim," one GM said. "He was up-and-down as a freshman. He's not ready, etc. But the upside? It's big. People forget he was ranked No. 2 [in high school] for a reason. He has time to get better. But what Turner has you can't teach. I think there's some risk there, but the upside is tremendous." Turner will work out alongside Porzingis in Vegas on the June 12. A clean bill of health and a new, improved running gait should do wonders for his stock, according to multiple NBA GMs. "If that's all clean, he's a top-five guy for us."
Apr 29 Update: College basketball fans are typically up in arms that Turner is ranked ahead of Frank Kaminsky. There's no question that by all accounts (with the exception of rim protection) Kaminsky had a better senior season than Turner had as a freshman. But therein lies the rub. If Turner was used at Texas the way Kaminsky was at Wisconsin -- by almost all accounts scouts believe Rick Barnes misused him at UT -- and he had three more seasons of experience under his belt, is it reasonable that he might be even better than Kaminsky? Most scouts say yes. He can shoot it like Kaminsky and he can put the ball on the floor. Plus, he's bigger and a better athlete. That's why he's No. 10 and Kaminsky is No. 13. Turner's big moment the next few weeks will come in the medical testing. If his knees check out OK, and if doctors aren't concerned that there will be long-term damage because of the way he runs, he could end up moving up a few spots on the board.
Apr 8 Update: Turner, like Looney, remains mired in the potential-versus-production debate but with one interesting twist: A number of scouts and GMs are still convinced that the awkward way he runs is either masking a hidden injury or will lead to one. Until their doctors get a great look at Turner at the draft combine, it's a little tough to peg his draft stock. His length, ability to protect the rim and his shooting prowess all scream lottery pick. His lack of strength and his inconsistency are major question marks. I think that like Looney, he's in the Nos. 7-to-14 range.
Mar 30 Update: Turner has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Turner announced via YouTube that he'll declare for the draft, though the announcement isn't a huge surprise. Turner has been ranked in our top 10 all season and has the talent of a top-five pick (especially when judged by analytics). He's long, mobile, an elite rim-protector, good rebounder and has an offensive game that includes a terrific 3-point shot. His lack of strength, wild inconsistency and concern about how he runs keep his draft stock out of the top five right now, though teams may fall in love with him during upcoming workouts -- especially if his knees check out. Look for him to go in the six-to-12 range.
Mar 23 Update: Turner's game against Butler was a mixed bag. He scored just two points on 1-for-5 shooting and was plagued by foul trouble most of the game. However, he did grab 10 rebounds in the space of 16 minutes. And I think that game, in a nutshell, is what scouts expect from Turner. His defense, both as a rebounder and a shot blocker, are well ahead of his offense right now. While he can clearly stretch the floor and is skilled offensively, he lacks the strength and the basketball know-how to really put a lot of points on the board. Turner scored in double digits just once in the last eight games of the season and just three times in his last 14 games. With that said, his ceiling is so high, he should be a lock to get drafted somewhere in the mid-to-late lottery.
Mar 16 Update: Turner is maddeningly inconsistent. When he's good, he looks like a top-five pick; he's an athletic, mobile big man who can protect the rim, rebound, run the floor and knock down 3s. When he's bad, he just disappears, hanging out in the corners waiting for someone to pass him the ball. Right now NBA scouts are banking on the good Turner. They think he's been misused at Texas and will immediately be better in the pros. The detractors question his toughness, motor and his awkward gait. He's one of the more polarizing players in the draft but should go in the 6-to-12 range.
Mar 11 Update: Turner is inconsistent. Maddeningly so. And the Longhorns might be the biggest disappointment of any team in the NCAA this season. There was a time when they looked like a potential top-10 team in the country. Now they are barely hanging on for a spot in the NCAA tournament. But Turner is not solely to blame. Rick Barnes has a logjam in the middle and does not really seem to know how to best use his talented freshman center. But scouts are not down on him at all, despite his up-and-down play. He is big, protects the rim and can shoot the 3. Plus, everyone I have spoken with thinks he will be much better in the NBA.
Feb 11 Update: Turner remains a bit of a mystery to scouts. His size and ability to stretch the floor and protect the rim make him unique and one of the more intriguing prospects in the draft. The challenge continues to be his inconsistency. Turner was great in a recent matchup against Iowa State, with 16 points, 6 rebounds and 3 blocks. However, he followed that with a two-point, four-rebound outing against Baylor and had just seven points and one rebound against Kansas State. Teams drafting him will be doing so for his upside. After a very solid start, he's been pretty mediocre of late.
Jan 29 Update: Question: Does Myles Turner deserve consideration as a top-5 pick in the 2015 draft?
Kevin Pelton: The last two weeks, we've talked about the consensus top-2 big men prospects in college basketball, Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns. As I mentioned last week, however, another freshman post player ranks ahead of both of them in my WARP projections: Myles Turner of the Texas Longhorns. Per 40 minutes, Turner is averaging 20.9 points, 12.0 rebounds and 4.9 blocks. He's shown college 3-point range, making 13 triples at a 35.1 percent clip. And Turner won't turn 19 until midway through the NCAA tournament. So, Chad, should teams consider him in the same echelon as Okafor and Towns?
Chad Ford: He's a pretty polarizing player among scouts. Some absolutely love him and see him as a contender for a top-5 pick. Others are very wary. The upside is clearly there -- he's an athletic 7-footer who can stretch the floor, rebound and protect the rim. Those guys don't come along every day. But Turner has been inconsistent, especially against elite teams, and so many scouts can't get over the awkward way that he runs the floor -- sort of like an old man with two bad knees playing pickup ball at the YMCA.
Pelton: Performance against elite teams is an understandable concern. Turner has been a different player against better opponents. Here's how his performance breaks down by opponents ranked in the top 100 by KenPom.com, and all others.
At the same time, I'm a believer that the bigger sample is almost always more telling than the smaller sample, so I wouldn't put too much in the difference over fewer than a dozen games.
Ford: I'm really intrigued, and everyone else is too, I think. But it feels like both Okafor and Towns are just surer things at this point. So maybe you could help explain why the numbers favor Turner over both Okafor and Towns.
Question: How does Turner compare to Okafor and Towns?
Pelton: Let's take a look at some key stats.
In some ways, Turner represents the middle ground between Okafor (the best offensive player of the group) and Towns (the best defender), in large part because of his excellent free throw shooting. He's been efficient while carrying a heavy load on offense, yet he's also one of the nation's better shot-blockers. Two hidden advantages for Turner: First, his 3-point attempts help him with the spacing bonus my WARP system awards outside shooters; second, his turnover rate is incredibly low, which tends to be a subtle skill. Do those numbers match up with what scouts are seeing?
Ford: They do. Turner is clearly the unique 4 who can both stretch the floor and protect the rim. Floor spacing and rim-protection are huge pluses in the NBA. Obviously the potential is there for Turner to be special. Again, I think it's the questions about the long-term health of his knees and questions about how uneven his performances have been that have given rise to caution. But look, the potential to be a top-3 pick is there, and if Turner pulls off a string of stellar games toward the end of the season, he could be right there on draft night -- assuming all goes well in the physicals.
So given that he's the top guy on your board, how does Turner compare to other top picks, and do you have a good comp for him?
Question: How does Turner compare to past prospects?
Pelton: As discussed in the Okafor breakdown, the typical No. 1 pick has been projected for an average of 3.1 WARP during their first four seasons in the NBA. Turner's current WARP projection is 3.0, so he's right in that average range. That puts him a little ahead of Joel Embiid last season (2.9 projected WARP).
Four past players score better than 90 in terms of similarity to Turner: Chris Bosh (94.3), Derrick Favors (92.6), Kosta Koufos (92.2) and Greg Oden (91.0). Of that group, Bosh seems like the most reasonable comparison in terms of Turner's ability to protect the rim and stretch the floor.
Ford: Yeah, I thought Bosh would be a good comp for him, though I feel like Turner projects as both a better rebounder and shot-blocker at the next level. I actually am more comfortable with him in that role right now than as an offensive weapon. I wonder if Serge Ibaka is another comp as well. Turner doesn't have Ibaka's body and never will, but might be more comparable as an elite shot-blocker who can stretch the floor.
Obviously, those comps should place him right in the mix for a top-5 selection. I really wonder how much of his draft projection being in the top 10 instead of the top three or four is just the visual aesthetic of watching how he runs.
Jan 28 Update: Scouts tend to either love or hate Turner right now. He's an analytics darling (something Pelton and I will soon address in our draft articles) and there have been games, mostly against weaker competition, in which he's looked worthy of the No. 1 pick. The challenge is that Turner tends to struggle when paired against top competition. He still lacks strength and can get bullied. Regardless, scouts who like him see a huge, athletic forward who both protects the rim at an elite level and can stretch the floor with the 3-point shot. His detractors note that he lacks strength, is inconsistent and runs so awkwardly that they're worried there could be issues (either now or long-term) with his knees. He might be the single hardest guy to place on the board right now.
Jan 6 Update: It has been a tale of two seasons for Turner. Against middling competition, Turner's performance has been incredible -- driving him into the top five in college PER. But against top teams (Iowa, Cal, UConn, Kentucky and Stanford), he has struggled. That trend continued on Monday when Turner scored just four points on 2-of-9 shooting and grabbed just five rebounds in 25 minutes during a blowout loss to Oklahoma. But scouts really like Turner's long-term potential. He has good offensive instincts, can score from anywhere on the floor and is a terrific shot-blocker. Until he adds strength and shows the ability to score against bigger foes, however, he really can't rise much higher on the board.
Dec 17 Update: Turner has been a monster defensively for Texas. As a shot-blocker and rebounder, his numbers are already impressive. He ranks fourth in the NCAA in PER. He absolutely dominated teams like St. Francis (25 points, 10 rebounds, 3 blocks) and Lipscomb on Tuesday (26 points, 9 rebounds, 6 blocks). However, his poor performance against Kentucky raised some eyebrows. UK has a front line that's bigger than some NBA teams, but Turner really struggled. He was just 1-for-5 from the field, had zero blocks and fouled out in 18 minutes. The other time he faced a legitimate big, UConn's Amida Brimah, he was just 1-for-4 from the field. Scouts will keep watching closely to see if it becomes a trend against other bigs with NBA potential. But before you head to Twitter to protest Turner being ranked ahead of Willie Cauley-Stein, remember this. Cauley-Stein already is 21. He'll be 22 before he plays his first NBA game. Turner doesn't turn 19 until the end of March. That age gap is very, very big in the eyes of scouts.
Dec 2 Update: Six games into the season, Turner is second among all freshmen in PER and second overall among players on our Big Board with a fantastic 38.31. That's come as a major surprise to scouts who expected Turner to be the biggest work in progress among the elite freshmen. A huge 25-point, 10-rebound performance against St. Francis (11-for-12 from the field) was his standout game. Against better competition like Iowa, Cal and UConn, he hasn't been nearly as dominant offensively, so take the early sample size with a grain of salt. Still, there is one thing he has done consistently, and that's block shots. He has also been a beast on the defensive glass. Turner is averaging 3 blocks in just under 20 minutes per game and has an impressive defensive rebounding rate of 26.2.
Nov 26 Update: Turner didn't exactly turn heads in New York last weekend. He scored a total of 10 points on 4-for-11 shooting in wins versus Iowa and Cal. However, scouts still walked away impressed with his defense and overall game. It should be noted that in Texas' other outings, he's been terrific. He scored 15 points against North Dakota State, blocked six shots versus Alcorn State and then went off for 25 points and 10 rebounds (on 11-for-12 shooting) on Tuesday against St. Francis (Pa.). Turner went 3-for-3 from beyond the arc in that game. He's the rare big who both thrives in the paint defensively and can hurt you from the perimeter offensively. He's going to be up and down all year and scouts worry a bit about the way he runs, but there is a ton of talent oozing from Turner and he's been more productive early than scouts thought he'd be.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: B+ Turner may be one of the more polarizing players in our top 10. He has top 5 talent but many scouts felt he was so raw that it was unlikely he'd be a one-and-done. So far, he's played up to his talent averaging 12.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG and a whopping 4 BPG in 20 MPG. He's also shooting a red-hot 67 percent from the field and showing off a lethal midrange game. If he keeps playing as well as he's done in his first two games, he's going to go even higher than 10.
Oct 31 Update: Turner, on sheer upside, is right there with both Okafor and Towns. He's a versatile big man who can face the basket and protect the paint. His ability to knock down jumpers is especially appealing to scouts. But when compared to the four players ahead of him, Turner is the least NBA ready. He needs to add strength, improve his low-post game and just improve his overall toughness. He's the most polarizing of the prospects in the top 5. Some scouts absolutely love him, while others aren't sold that he'll be ready for the NBA after his freshman season.
Sept. 9 Update: It's difficult to know where exactly to place Turner. Scouts are all over the place on him. Some think he could be a top-5 pick. Others think he wouldn't crack the top 30 this year. On paper, he looks like a very good prospect based on his size, length and solid athletic ability -- especially on the defensive end of the court. But he's still a work in progress when he's asked to operate in the paint on the offensive end. Turner averaged just 7.2 PPG and 4.8 RPG in 15.4 MPG for Team USA in the Under-18s. But he set a Team USA record with an incredible 18 blocks in those five games. Given Texas' personnel, it will be interesting to see whether Rick Barnes might use Turner more as a stretch 4. He's clearly more comfortable there (he has a very good midrange jumper) and Barnes has proven in the past his offense caters to players who can knock down jumpers.
July 16 Update: Based purely on his physical abilities and talent, Turner should probably be rated No. 2 on our Big Board. He has elite size, length and athleticism for the center position. He can run the floor like a guard and get up off the floor. He has the touch on his jump shot to play in the high post. He's just not as far along in his development as Okafor and Towns are. Scouts wonder just how much impact Turner will have at Texas as a freshman. But a big season for Turner isn't out of the question. Andre Drummond was surrounded by similar concerns during his freshman year with the UConn Huskies. A year later, he went ninth. We're going to be patient with Turner on the Big Board in the early going. It could be a while before he starts playing up to this spot. But he has considerable top-five potential, and deserves the benefit of the doubt.
June 27 Update: Turner was the most controversial selection of the group. He's the No. 2-ranked player in the freshman class, according to ESPN. He's a true 7-footer with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and has excellent athletic abilities for his size. But he's by far the rawest prospect of the top 5. He's still more comfortable playing on the perimeter, lacks toughness and post moves, and can disappear in games.
However, before jumping off the bandwagon, remember scouts said most of those same things about Andre Drummond coming out of high school. His lackluster play as a freshman dropped him to No. 9 in the 2012 draft. In retrospect, he should have gone No. 2. I've split the difference with Turner.
April 15 Update: Turner was struggling with a recurring knee issue all week and wasn't really himself. He's huge and athletic and generally stands out with his athleticism and quickness for his size, but he just didn't look the part in Portland.
Tuner is a bit of a late bloomer and is more polarizing as a prospect. He has the requisite size and athletic ability to be a No. 1 pick, but his game hasn't developed to the same extent as Mudiay's or Okafor's.
Right now he's at his best facing the basket. He has a soft touch on his jump shot and excels when stepping out of the paint. He has all the tools to play inside as well but needs to add toughness and aggressiveness to his game.
Turner is undecided right now on his college choice, but based on the intel I gathered, he seems to be deciding between Kansas (which most believe is the favorite), Texas and SMU.
He'll be a player teams will watch really closely. Players with his size and athletic ability don't come along very often. Remember that Andre Drummond had a very uneven season at UConn as a freshman. It might be the same for Turner, but there's crazy upside there.
11 Cameron Payne 20 PG 6-2 183 Murray State Lottery Pick
June 18 Update: In the past two months, Payne's rise on draft boards has been incredible. Payne didn't crack our Big Board until April, when he debuted at No. 20. He moved up to No. 15 on Big Board 9.0 and then up to No. 11 on Big Board 10.0. Now he's cracked the top 10 and is getting interest from the Lakers, Knicks and Kings -- all teams drafting in the top six. What gives? His combination of quickness, length and scoring and passing ability is clearly intriguing teams. I like him, but I wonder whether teams are getting a little too caught up in the hype.
May 18 Update: Payne continues to draw serious interest to the point that he's getting several looks in the lottery according to multiple team sources. He was the highest-ranked player on our Big Board to go through athletic testing and shooting drills at the combine and tested well on both accounts. His length, solid athleticism and craftiness with the ball, combined with terrific interviews have him ranked as the third-best point guard in the draft by about 80 percent of the NBA folks I spoke with. Two teams I've heard are especially high on him in the lottery -- the Hornets and Pacers. The Jazz (if they decide to move Trey Burke) and Thunder also are possibilities in the lottery.
May 15 Update: Murray State's Cameron Payne is also a hot name, and sources indicate that one team in particular (the Indiana Pacers) is looking seriously at the guard at No. 11. Payne is coming in to work out with the Pacers on Monday along with Notre Dame's Jerian Grant. While a mobile big is also a possibility for the Pacers (they love Willie Cauley-Stein and like Frank Kaminsky), Payne has a big fan club in Indy.
Apr 29 Update: With Kris Dunn deciding to return to Providence for his junior season, Payne quickly moved into the role of "intriguing young point guard" who might be better than everyone thinks. This draft doesn't have a lot of elite point guard prospects after Mudiay and Russell go off the board, and the more scouts watch footage of Payne and get familiar with his game, the more they keep talking themselves into liking him. While Jerian Grant and Tyus Jones are right there with Payne, I get a strong sense from scouts that Payne might have pulled into the lead.
Apr 8 Update: Payne was the hottest point guard in the draft until Tyus Jones won Duke a title on Monday. Payne and Jones have a lot of similarities as pass-first floor generals who play the game with a high basketball IQ but still can put the ball in the basket. The difference is that Payne is taller and a better athlete than Jones, two major sticking points with NBA scouts. Like Dunn and Grant, he's in the 14-to-22 range.
Apr 7 Update: Payne has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Payne is one of the hottest point guard names in the draft and is capitalizing on a strong run in the NIT that has put him in the mix for a mid first round pick. He has tremendous basketball IQ and has a great balance between scoring the basketball and finding his teammates. While he needs to add strength, he may very well be the best point guard prospect not named Mudiay or Russell. Look for him to go in the 13 to 23 range.
Mar 31 Update: Payne wasn't playing in the Big Dance, but he got several nationally televised games in the NIT and shined for Murray State. Payne had 14 points, 10 assists and 7 rebounds against UTEP in the opening round, 20 points and seven assists against Tulsa in just 25 minutes (while shooting 5-for-8 from 3), and 23 points and six assists in a loss to Old Dominion in the NIT quarterfinals.
Payne is a hot name right now among NBA scouts, and for good reason: He sees the floor as well as any point guard in the draft, has a terrific assist-to-turnover ratio, and has become a much improved shooter. He needs to get stronger, but several scouts believe he's the third-best point guard in the draft right now behind Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell. We moved him up to No. 30 last week in our Top 100 update and we've moved him up a few more spots to No. 23 in this week's rank. If he declares, he should be a first-round lock.
Mar 25 Update: Lots of buzz about Payne right now. Even though he's not playing in the NCAA tournament, we actually moved him into our Top 30 on Sunday night. Some teams think he's the third best point guard behind Russell and Mudiay. Others are worried that his slight frame will be an issue and have him on the first round bubble. Another year would give him a chance to add more strength. But he could very well be a first rounder, even a mid-first rounder if he declares.
Feb 24 Update: Murray State is in the midst of a 22-game win streak, and Payne is the engine behind the Racers' success. He is drawing praise from scouts as one of the most intelligent point guards in the draft. Payne isn't the strongest or most athletic point guard in the draft, but he is quick, is shooting the ball much better as a sophomore, and has a very advanced feel for the game. He probably isn't a first-round pick right now, but some teams are taking a very close look. As Kevin Pelton pointed out two weeks ago, Payne is a favorite of the analytics crowd.
12 Devin Booker 18 SG 6-6 206 Kentucky Lottery Pick
June 18 Update: Booker's athletic scores were a surprise at the combine. He ended up with the fastest shuttle run (2.75 seconds), fastest lane agility score (10.27 seconds) and a solid 34.5-inch maximum vertical. While the vertical didn't wow anyone, the other two scores did. His athleticism showed in the workout, as well. He gets terrific elevation on his jump shot and showed quickness off the ball and explosiveness at the rim.
May 18 Update: With the Splash Brothers continuing to shoot their way through the Western Conference playoffs, the need for shooting was a major point of emphasis from scouts this week. The NBA is a trendy league and right now the ability to stretch the floor is trending in NBA scout circles. Booker is widely seen as the safest bet to to do that, so much that a few teams told me he was in their top 10. Teams aren't necessarily sure that he'll be more than a terrific spot-up shooter, but his high basketball IQ and solid defense give them hope that he can be more -- especially after posting the best scores at the combine in both the lane agility (10.2 seconds) and shuttle run tests (2.75 seconds). But even if he isn't more than just a shooter, Booker's shot is so picture perfect that he should find his way into the lottery. Several teams -- including the Pistons, Hornets, Pacers, Jazz, Suns and Thunder -- are all looking for shooting. That gives Booker a lot of bites at the lottery apple.
Apr 29 Update: Booker's appeal comes primarily because of his shooting. Many GMs believe he's the best pure shooter in the draft. The question is whether he does anything else to make him worthy of a top-20 pick. He has a high basketball IQ but scouts will want to see him defend and create his own shot in workouts.
Apr 9 Update: Booker has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Booker may be the best three-point shooter in the draft. He has deep range on his jumper, has a high basketball IQ which means he rarely takes bad shots. His lack of elite athleticism and just average size for his position limit his upside some, but scouts think he'll get drafted in the 13 to 20 range.
Apr 8 Update: Booker might be the best 3-point shooter in the draft, and it was odd that he didn't take even one shot against Wisconsin in Kentucky's loss. Booker started the season in a slump, got red-hot midseason and cooled off toward the end. But in a draft devoid of elite shooters, he and R.J. Hunter should be either the first or second pure shooter off the board after D'Angelo Russell. Booker is in the 13-to-22 range.
Mar 31 Update: Booker broke out of his monthlong shooting slump over the weekend, shooting 9-for-14 from the field and 4-for-8 from 3. His stock has been a little dinged the past month and these two solid performances help a bit, but he could use a big Final Four.
Mar 23 Updateevin Booker's shooting slump continues. He shot a combined 4-for-15 from the field , 0-for-7 from beyond the arc in Kentucky's first two games in the tournament. He's been struggling lately and it has raised some questions in NBA scouts' minds about his readiness for the NBA. Teams see him as an elite shooter, but given all the good looks he gets because of UK's loaded roster, his slump has been a bit disconcerting. His stock is sliding just a little over the past month, out of the late lottery and more into the mid-first round.
Mar 16 Update: Booker is widely regarded by scouts as the best 3-point shooter in the draft. Scouts are hoping he turns into a Klay Thompson-type player down the road.
Mar 11 Update: Scouts aren't necessarily concerned, but Booker's picture-perfect jump shot hasn't been tickling the nets the same way it was earlier in the season. Since the start of February, he's shot 12-for-40 from 3 (30 percent) with plenty of open looks. Teams are primarily interested in Booker for his shooting, and while no one is dissuaded about his shooting prowess, he needs to start hitting more shots to keep himself this high on the board.
Feb 11 Update:Booker has earned the title of the draft's best shooter and looks like he could be the third lottery pick from UK's undefeated team. He also plays with a high basketball IQ and has been a more-than-solid defender this season. He's not an elite athlete, but shooting comes at a premium and Booker has a beautiful stroke. He is, however, in the midst of an unusual shooting slump, going 5-of-17 from 3.
Jan 29 Update: Scouts are watching Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson light it up at Golden State and Kyle Korver having a historic season shooting the ball in Atlanta, and so many teams are craving a player in that mold. This draft isn't loaded with great shooters, and I've watched Booker rise about 10 spots on our Big Board every month. He's now up to No. 14 in our Top 100, and I'm wondering if he's going to march even higher.
He's shooting 50 percent from 3, projects to be the youngest player in the draft, has been a surprisingly good defender and is such a smart player. What do the numbers say about where Booker should go?
Pelton: That's actually precisely the same spot Booker occupies in my WARP projections. His age, as you mentioned, is huge. Booker won't turn 19 until the start of the 2015-16 season, so for him to be arguably Kentucky's best wing player this season is incredible. I also like Booker's combination of size and shooting ability, which makes both him and R.J. Hunter intriguing prospects.
Jan 13 Update: This draft is completely devoid of lights-out shooters. Currently the only players in our top 30 shooting better than 40 percent from 3-point territory are Texas' Myles Turner (12-for-26), Kansas' Kelly Oubre (16-for-34), Virginia's Justin Anderson (36-for-64) and Michigan's Caris LeVert (28-for-70). Turner is a big man who doesn't take many shots from behind the arc. Oubre's sample size is limited because of reduced minutes at the start of the season, which leaves us with Anderson (who was a career 30 percent 3-point shooter his first two seasons at Virginia) and LeVert. Meanwhile, Georgia State's R.J. Hunter was supposed to be the purest shooter in the draft, but he hit a major shooting slump in December and is currently shooting just 31 percent on the season.
Enter Booker, who is shooting a lights-out 50 percent from behind the arc, on 30-for-60 shooting. He has been on fire over the past month, shooting 16-for-21 from 3-point range. Booker isn't a great athlete and doesn't necessarily bring a lot of other elite skills to the table, but his shot is so pure that more and more scouts are talking about him as the best shooter in the draft. Yes, Anderson is shooting the ball even better, but there's skepticism that he can keep hitting shots at this clip. Oubre, because of his size and athleticism, is a better prospect than both players. But it's looking as though Booker might not only crack the first round, he could end up in the late lottery to early 20s. A number of teams need shooters, and this draft is proving they are hard to come by.
Dec 22 Update: Booker is the best shooter on the Wildcats, and when he's on, he's the guy who makes the offense sizzle. He was on fire against UCLA. He led all scorers with 19 points and went 5-for-6 from beyond the arc. Booker is shooting 46 percent from behind the arc this season. While Booker is neither a high-flying athlete nor a lockdown defender, his ability to shoot the basketball has scouts very interested.
"When you look around at the draft, there just aren't any wings who can really shoot the ball," one NBA scout said. "You've got R.J. Hunter and who else really? Booker isn't just a good shooter, he's a great one, and there's always room on an NBA team for a great shooter. I'd be shocked if someone didn't snag him in the 20s."
Sept 12 Update: Big man Dakari Johnson also seemed like a lock for the top 30, but with the strong play of Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein returning from injury, there's question marks about how many minutes he'll get.
That's the problem for both Marcus Lee and freshman Trey Lyles. If they were playing on virtually any other team, they would be the focal point of the team and would probably be ranked 10 to 15 spots higher on the draft board. While both players should get minutes, their role will be more limited. The same holds true for Devin Booker, who could end up being one of the team's best shooters. If Poythress begins to struggle, he could benefit.
13 Stanley Johnson 19 SF 6-6 242 Arizona Lottery Pick
May 18 Update: Johnson is the highest player on the board to hit the "safe" category. He has an NBA body and toughness, plays with aggressiveness and possesses an adequate jump shot. His lack of explosive athleticism and his struggles finishing at the rim this year are points of concern, but nothing that suggests he'll fail in the NBA. "He's not as good as we thought he'd be coming into things," one GM said. "But he's not as bad as I think we've made him out to be either." He'll work hard and if he improves, he'll be a very good value pick here.
Apr 29 Update: Johnson was truly conflicted about declaring for the draft. He wanted to win an NCAA championship and he was getting feedback from NBA teams that he was a "bubble" top-10 pick -- not the top-five pick that many in the media were projecting him to be. Johnson's NBA-ready body and toughness will get him lots of looks in the top 10, but scouts will be watching closely to see just how explosive he is in athletic testing. Given his poor percentage of finishing at the rim, they wonder if Johnson is really the elite athlete he was hyped to be. He's in that 8-to-13 range.
Apr 23 Update: Johnson has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Johnson came into the season as a potential top 10 pick and for the most part, that's where his stock has stayed all season. While scouts have concerns about his ability to finish at the rim and some inconsistent effort, he has an NBA body, shot better than expected from the field and when he's locked in, he's a fierce competitor. He should go in the 8-to-13 range in the draft.
Apr 8 Update: Johnson's tournament was solid, just like his season. He clearly has an NBA body, shot the ball better this season than anyone could've hoped, and when he dials in defensively, he looks to be a strong two-way player in the pros. But NBA scouts think Winslow is a better athlete and has an even better motor. They think both Hezonja and Kansas' Kelly Oubre will be better shooters long term. Johnson is stuck somewhere in between: the guy who does just about everything well but lacks that one elite skill. Still, I think there's almost no way he falls out of the lottery. He could go as high as No. 6, but I think the range is more likely Nos. 8 to 14.
Mar 31 Update: Johnson was solid but far from great in Arizona's games against Xavier and Wisconsin. He had 12 points, six rebounds and a pair of 3s against Xavier in a win, but was plagued by foul trouble the entire game against Wisconsin and finished with just six points and three turnovers. He also shot just 2-for-6 from 3-point range over the weekend. At this point, scouts who are sold on Johnson won't be dissuaded by a few mediocre games, while the ones who aren't sold have a little more ammunition to add to the arsenal. He's projected to go in the six-to-12 range, but I think it's closer to the latter part of that forecast.
Mar 23 Update:Johnson cleaned up against Texas Southern on Thursday, scoring 22 points and shooting 4-for-5 from three. But against a more athletic Ohio State, he really struggled, shooting just 1-for-12 from the field and 0-for-4 from three. Johnson's shooting touch has generally been solid all season, it's his struggles finishing at the basket that have scouts worried. For someone so strong and athletic, he's shooting just 53 percent on shots at the rim. That's partly why, despite solid production all season, scouts aren't ready to commit to him as a Top 10 pick.
Mar 17 Update: Johnson might be a freshman on an elite team surrounded by upperclassmen, but when the game is on the line, head coach Sean Miller isn't afraid to give him the ball. Johnson's best attribute might be his fearlessness. He has a NBA body, is as tough as nails, and can score from anywhere on the floor. As far as NBA readiness goes, he could step in and play right now in the league. He's in the mix with Justise Winslow, Kelly Oubre and Croatia's Mario Hezonja to be the top wing off the board. However, he's not an elite athlete, is an inconsistent defender and struggles to finish at the rim and thus sits slightly below all of them on our Big Board. His range is No. 6 to 12 right now.
Mar 11 Update: Scouts have been split on Oubre, Hezonja, Winslow and Johnson all season. But when recently polling scouts, it was clear that Johnson might be losing some ground. While he has an NBA body and a reputation as a winner, he's struggled a bit lately -- not only with his shooting but also with major defensive lapses. His play against Utah (3-for-19 from the field along with some lazy defense) earned him a spot on the bench. The scouts who have closely watched Johnson say that his reputation hasn't always lived up to his play this season.
He's not the athlete everyone says he is, nor does he have the motor everyone says he does. As one veteran scout said: "He takes plays off. His motor isn't always great and with the exception of a great NBA body, his tools aren't all they're made out to be. He struggles to finish at the rim. In my opinion, he's the most overhyped player in the draft."
Feb 12 Update: Question: After combo guard D'Angelo Russell, Arizona forward Stanley Johnson is the top-rated American wing on Chad's big board (10th). How good is Johnson?
Kevin Pelton: I have Johnson rated a little lower. He's 19th on my first statistical big board of 2015, though there isn't a great deal of separation between 11th and 24th and Johnson could land almost anywhere in that group. The big factor working in Johnson's favor right now is his age. He won't turn 19 until May 29, before the draft, making him the second-youngest prospect likely to go in the first round (Kentucky's Devin Booker is the youngest; he turns 19 on Oct. 30). But based on his performance this season, I project him to be about replacement level when he enters the NBA. Is that reasonable?
Chad Ford: There's an interesting split on Johnson among scouts and execs. Just about everyone I speak to has him somewhere between fifth and 12th. But the guys who have him at No. 5 think he has a chance to be a NBA superstar while those who have him in the 10 to 12 range see a solid starter, maybe a role player. People tend to be firmly planted in one camp or the other. Clearly the numbers suggest the latter is more appropriate.
What do the numbers like about him (besides his age) and what are they wary of?
Question: What are Johnson's strengths and weaknesses as a prospect?
Pelton: The interesting thing about Johnson's freshman season is the lack of glaring strengths and weaknesses. In terms of the core projected statistics I look at to measure skills, the only one where he's in either the top or bottom 25 percent among NBA-bound small forwards (how I define strengths and weaknesses statistically) is his good steal rate. The upside here is that means Johnson has been better than advertised as an outside shooter, making nearly 40 percent of his selective 3-point opportunities. The downside is he hasn't been very good as a finisher. You and I have both highlighted that he's only making 50 percent of his attempts around the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com. Nobody else on the Arizona roster is making less than 60 percent of those shots.
One more area I think will be a plus for Johnson as a pro is rebounding. He's not far from making that a strength, and because coach Sean Miller often plays Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson together on the wing, there's a lot of competition on the glass in Tucson.
Question: Who are comparisons for Johnson?
Ford: Other than his NBA body and terrific motor, there isn't a lot that stands out for Johnson one way or the other. I love his fearlessness and his confidence. He plays like a senior, not a freshman. And when he wants to, he gets at it defensively (though I think Hollis-Jefferson is a better and more versatile on-the-ball defender). I have been surprised, too, with how well he's shot the ball, given that his form isn't particularly impressive and it wasn't a strength in high school. And I wonder if the poor numbers finishing at the basket are pointing to the fact that he isn't as explosive athletically as he looks and he's not great at creating off the dribble. I always look for players like Johnson to have at least one skill that could become elite at the NBA level and I haven't found his yet. His body, his toughness and his clutchness (a word I'm sure you hate) are the closest things I can find. He wants the ball and plays that way. But I see more upside in several of the other wings.
I'm curious who his NBA comps are, and maybe even more curious how he stacks up against the other top wings on your board. Scouts have him in a scrum with Mario Hezonja, Kelly Oubre and Justise Winslow and there are several other wings like Devin Booker and R.J. Hunter who are interesting.
Pelton: His top three comps by SCHOENE are Marvin Williams, Luol Deng and Thaddeus Young. I think that's a reasonable ballpark for his NBA value, with Deng as an optimistic view, Williams more pessimistic and Young realistic.
Looking at the other wings, Hunter (2.6 projected WARP) is the only player in the conversation I have rated substantially ahead of Johnson (2.0). He and Oubre (1.9) are very similar on my board. Hezonja (1.7) is a bit behind, though rising with his strong season, and Winslow (1.0) isn't in this mix statistically because he's not yet an efficient scorer and hasn't translated his defense into the box score. The surprise is Booker (1.5) has dropped quite a bit since we last discussed him. While he's still shooting the ball well, Booker has two steals in 11 SEC games and is averaging just 3.0 rebounds per 40 minutes in conference play, putting up red flags about whether he can hold his own defensively.
Ford: Interesting. The comp I've used for him in the past is Ron Artest, which -- if you take out the challenging personality stuff -- makes him a terrific prospect. I like the Thad Young one as well.
As for the order here, I have Hezonja slightly leading the pack right now on my big board. I'm sure the early-season numbers (when he was getting minimal playing time) have hurt him a bit, but he's been terrific lately. I have Johnson just one spot ahead of Oubre, so that checks out. Winslow was slowed down by a bad shoulder and sore ribs, but seems to be playing better lately. However, I'm scared to death by his poor 2-point jump shot percentage (16.2 percent according to Hoop-Math.com). Teams are still gaga over Booker, but I have noticed a dip in production (and shooting) the past few games. It's tough with Kentucky given all the talented moving parts.
I loved Hunter this summer when I watched tape and heard from scouts about his play in summer camps, but he's shooting just 31 percent from 3 this season. I'm curious how much his projected WARP is based on his previous two years and whether his poor shooting this year might just be a fluke. Overall, I have all of them in my top 20. This is a pretty good draft for wings.
Feb 11 Update: Johnson has a number of strong supporters among scouts who see him as a potential Ron Artest-type player in the NBA. His physical strength, his aggressiveness and his fearlessness are clearly major selling points. He also has shot the ball better from the field than anyone expected this season (49 percent on 2-point jumpers and 39 percent from beyond the arc). But his detractors question whether his lack of elite-level explosion and ballhandling ability (evidenced in part by a surprisingly low 50 percent field-goal percentage at the rim) could limit him in the NBA compared to other wings.
Jan 6 Update: The board is pretty fluid between Nos. 5 and 12. Johnson could end up just as easily going fifth or sixth as he could 11th. Johnson was replaced by Rondae Hollis-Jefferson in the starting lineup on Sunday against Arizona State. However, by the start of the second half, Johnson was back with the first team. It appears that there have been some concerns about Johnson's defensive effort as well as a tendency for the ball to stop moving when he's on the floor. Those are minor issues overall and everyone expects Johnson to continue to play the alpha-dog role for Arizona. His shooting has been especially impressive this season; he's making 52 percent of his 2-point jumpers and 45 percent from 3. It's his percentage at the rim (just 48 percent) that has raised some eyebrows.
Dec 17 Update: Johnson is emerging as the alpha dog on this Arizona squad. He has the NBA size, body and motor. Everywhere he's played, he's been a winner. The question mark centers on his skill level. Early in the season he looked shaky, but lately Johnson has become Arizona's top offensive weapon. He's shooting a terrific 55 percent on his 2-point jumpers and a surprising 39 percent from 3. If he can keep those numbers up all season, he could very well overtake Winslow as the first wing off the board.
Dec 2 Update: Johnson won the MVP of the Maui Invitational last week. He hit huge free throws in the waning seconds of a close game against San Diego State on Wednesday, and it was clear he wanted the ball in his hands. He finished with a career-high 18 points, and nine of those points came from the line. While his overall numbers are solid, he has a long way to go as far as skill development is concerned; he's shooting just 41 percent from the field and 33 percent on 3s, while averaging 2.3 turnovers per game. There's no question that Johnson brings toughness and a certain fearlessness to the game. If his skills can ever catch up with his motor and leadership qualities, he's going to be a great NBA player. But the skills part still needs a lot of work.
Nov 26 Update: Freshman Stanley Johnson has been ranked in the top 10 all summer thanks to a stellar high school career and a rep as one of the few two-way players in the draft. Blessed with a body reminiscent of a young Ron Artest, he can out-physical just about any other wing in college basketball. He's been solid so far, averaging 12.6 PPG and 5.6 RPG and he's thrown down some pretty incredible dunks. He's also had two solid games here in Maui against Missouri and Kansas State. But his lack of a jump shot (he's 4-for-14 from 3 this year) and only so-so handle puts his one-and-done status in doubt. Said one GM in Maui: "He's clearly got the physical tools to be a great NBA player, but his game has not caught up with those tools. There's a long ways to go from a skills development standpoint. Someone will take him in the lottery if he declares, but he's got a lot of work to do."
Nov 18 Update: Grade: B After a super shaky first game versus Mt. Saint Mary's (8 points on 2-for-8 shooting), Johnson bounced back on Sunday, scoring 17 points and shooting 2-for-3 from 3-point range against CS Northridge. The key for Johnson to stay this high on the Big Board will be his perimeter game. He was 0-for-4 from the perimeter against St. Mary's and is 2-for-7 for the season. Scouts will watch this number closely.
Nov 6 Update: Johnson already has the body of a NBA veteran and plays with a toughness and motor that make him fun to watch. Johnson goes hard every night, but he must add a consistent perimeter game to be a star. That concern over his shooting ability means that some scouts have players like Kevon Looney and Mario Hezonja ranked higher. But if Johnson can put it all together this season? He could be a top-three draft pick.
Sept. 9 Update: Johnson also had an impressive summer with strong performances at LeBron and Nations as well as MVP honors for Team USA's Under-18 team. Johnson averaged 14 PPG and 5.4 RPG in just 16.4 MPG for the squad. He clearly has an NBA body and shows off a sophisticated game for a freshman, but he's still a consistent jump shot away from moving into the top three or four.
July 16 Update: Johnson will battle Winslow as the first small forward off the board. But there are a lot of mixed feelings from scouts here. Some have Johnson third on their draft board behind Okafor and Mudiay. They think he's the most NBA-ready player in the draft. They say he plays with terrific energy, he already has an NBA body, he rebounds and defends and can score from anywhere. Others fear he might be the second coming of Shabazz Muhammad, the former UCLA Bruins guard who struggled for the Minnesota Timberwolves this season. In high school, Johnson was able to bully his way all over the court. I don't see him doing that in college. He's not an elite athlete and he will need to develop a better jump shot to excel on the offensive end. He will also likely be playing behind Rondae Hollis-Jefferson this season, unless Arizona moves him or Jefferson out of position to play at the 2.
April 15 Update: Johnson has a number of fans in the NBA. He's a 237-pound small forward. They don't get much stronger than that. He has NBA strength, plays hard and has an emerging jump shot that needs to improve.
He's not an elite athlete, however, and some teams question whether he, like Shabazz Muhammad a few years ago, benefited in high school from being physically stronger than everyone else in his age group. He was just 1-for-6 from the field in the game and didn't look like he could create his own shot against people. He's going to have to develop a consistent skill to be a one-and-done lottery pick, but the potential is there.
14 Kelly Oubre 19 SF 6-7 203 Kansas Lottery Pick
June 18 Update: Oubre may have more upside than any other wing in the draft. After a strong performance at the Nike Hoop Summit and big moments in front of scouts at the LeBron James Skills Academy and Adidas Nations, Oubre began the season ranked at No. 5 on my Big Board -- the highest of any wing in the draft. He's the tallest of the four elite wings in the draft, has the longest wingspan, is the best or nearly the best athlete and he's a lefty to boot.
May 18 Update: Oubre measured with a massive 7-2 wingspan at the combine and was the tallest of the wings. He also showed off above-average athleticism in the athletic testing. However, his interviews played to mixed reviews from scouts and whoever drafts him sees a project with major upside -- pushing him a little further down our board past a few mid-first round sure things. "I think he has a chance to be a 3-and-D guy in the league and his best NBA skill will probably be on the defensive end," one GM said. "I think he'll be able to lock down guys if he wants to. And I think he'll be a good shooter. It's the in-between stuff that I'm not sure he'll ever get. I don't think he can really dribble the basketball. But the biggest issue is his head. Is he ready to put in the work?" If he does, he could be a steal this late.
Apr 29 Update: Scouts have a love-hate relationship with Oubre. On upside (thanks to crazy length and a diverse skill set) he has as much as, or more than, Winslow or Hezonja. But he's also the rawest of the prospects. His defense improved dramatically as a freshman, but his shot selection and assertiveness -- along with his ballhandling abilities -- are still in question. Over the next two months he'll get matched up a lot with Winslow and Johnson in workouts. That might be a tough one for him given his relative lack of strength compared to the other two. He's going to have to show toughness and hit a lot of shots in workouts to move past either of them -- especially Winslow.
Apr 8 Update: It will be interesting to see if Oubre can keep his stock in the lottery. Scouts have been crazy high on him (before the season began), rock bottom on him (after a very slow start), high on him again (after he moved into KU's starting lineup) and lukewarm the last month of the season. His length, shooting touch and defensive abilities are all very attractive, however, and you can make the case he has the highest upside of any wing in the draft. But he's going to need some terrific workouts against Winslow and Johnson, and that might be tough given how physical both players are. Oubre's in the 10-to-15 range right now.
Apr 1 Update: Oubre has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Oubre has top-five talent. He's crazy long for a wing (a 7-foot-2 wingspan), is an excellent athlete, possesses a sweet 3-point stroke and under Bill Self turned himself into a committed defender on the perimeter this season. However, the lefty was pretty inconsistent in 2014-15 and needs to add strength. He's further away than the other wings in his draft range -- Justise Winslow, Mario Hezonja and Stanley Johnson -- but he may have the highest ceiling of any of them if he continues to work on his game. Look for Oubre to go in the seven-to-14 range.
Mar 23 Update: Oubre didn't dominate either game. He was better on Friday against New Mexico State, going 2-for-3 from beyond the arc. Against Wichita State on Sunday, he was just 3-for-9 from the field and 0-for-3 from 3. He had five rebounds, but never really got it going for Kansas. That's been Oubre in a nutshell all year. Incredible talent, spotty production. While we have him ranked one spot ahead of Johnson on our Big Board because of upside, the truth is scouts are pretty evenly split between the two. This might come down to who dominates in head-to-head workouts.
Mar 16 Update: Oubre is the team's best NBA prospect, though he doesn't always look like it. When he's aggressive, he can be lethal both shooting the basketball and taking it to the hoop. And the best part is that Bill Self has turned him into a much more aggressive defender. There's major upside there, though he's still a work in progress. He should go somewhere between Nos. 6 and 12.
Mar 11 Update: After a super slow start, Oubre has been pretty steady over the past month. With the exception of a zero-point performance against TCU, he's averaging 14 PPG, 7.0 RPG and is shooting 50 percent from 3 in his last six games. Oubre might be the rawest of the four top wings, but many scouts still believe the lefty has the most upside for a team willing to be patient.
Feb 11 Update: The previous time we updated the Big Board, Oubre, for the first time in his freshman season, looked like the best player on the floor for Kansas. But he has regressed quite a bit on offense. With the exception of a terrific outing against Iowa State on Feb. 2 (16 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists), Oubre has scored a total of just 23 points in his five other games, including zero points against TCU and only one point against Oklahoma State on Saturday. In his past six games, he is 4-for-20 from 3. His defensive intensity has improved dramatically and the raw talent is clearly there. However, Oubre continues to look like more of a project than either Johnson or Hezonja.
Jan 6 Update: In four out of his past five games, Oubre has been the best player on the floor for the Jayhawks. He has two 20-point games (against Lafayette and Kent State) and two double-doubles in his past four. He appears to get more aggressive by the game. While his shot wasn't falling in the UNLV game, he made up for it with terrific defense on Rashad Vaughn. Oubre is shooting 48 percent from 3-point range and has improved his 2-point shooting to 39 percent. If he keeps improving at this rate, there's a good change he's the first wing off the board.
Dec 31 Update: Oubre started the season in Bill Self's doghouse but is now in the starting five and over the past three games he's been the best player on the floor for KU. He could easily end up as the first wing off the board.
Dec 17 Update: Oubre finally is finding his way out of coach Bill Self's doghouse and showing glimpses of the talent that had him ranked as the No. 5 prospect in the draft going into the season. Oubre received 16 minutes versus Georgetown. While he didn't shoot well (several of his shots were in and out), he was aggressive getting to the line and grabbed five rebounds. His best game of the year probably was against Utah on Saturday. He played 17 minutes, scored nine points and was a difference-maker when he was in the game. There still is a long way to go before Oubre is playing up to his potential, but it's great to see him getting meaningful minutes and making an impact on the game.
Dec 2 Update: Oubre is just a mess right now. He wowed scouts at camps over the summer. Based on his profile of size, elite athleticism and skill, he projected as a top-five pick in the draft. But he has struggled to get on the floor for Kansas, and when he does get minutes he looks absolutely lost -- especially on the defensive end. You can criticize Bill Self for not letting Oubre figure it out, but he's been so bad, and the Jayhawks aren't necessarily a dominant team, so you understand why he doesn't get the minutes. If Oubre figures it out, he'll fly right back up the draft board and be in the mix for a spot somewhere between Nos. 5 and 10. The talent in undeniable. But it's looking more and more as if he'll take longer than expected to show off that potential.
Nov 19 Update: vs. UK: 6 points, 4 rebounds, 2-for-3 shooting in 13 minutes
Oubre played just four minutes in KU's opener, but got the start versus Kentucky. Unfortunately quick foul trouble set him on the bench after a few minutes. When he did get in the game, with about five minutes to go in the first half, he was very good offensively, scoring all six of his points and grabbing four rebounds in a mini run for Kansas to close Kentucky's lead to 10. However, he was pretty silent in the second half and his numerous defensive mistakes clearly are irritating Bill Self. Oubre isn't even passable as a defender right now. If this continues all season, his ranking will slide. He has the athleticism and shooting ability of a top 5 pick, but right now he doesn't appear to have the head for it. We will see if he matures as the season wears on, but Tuesday night he got more jeers than cheers from scouts.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: F Oubre played just four minutes in an unusually tight opening game for Kansas. He didn't take any shots, but did grab two rebounds and hand out an assist. After the game head coach Bill Self said it was a coach's decision on holding Oubre out, and told reporters that Oubre was young. That doesn't sound good. Oubre is an elite-level talent, but it sounds like he might already be in Self's doghouse. He didn't mind playing young players like Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid last season.
Nov 6 Update: Oubre is using a terrific summer to push his stock into the top five. Blessed with deep range on his jump shot, terrific size for his position and elite athletic abilities, he's a very special talent. Improved decision-making and a midrange game are the things scouts will look for this season. He can be a gunslinger, and it remains to be seen whether head coach Bill Self can rein him in.
Sept. 9 Update: Oubre made a major jump in our rankings thanks to terrific performances at both the LeBron James Skills Academy and Adidas Nations. The combination of size, elite athleticism and deep range on that jump shot are extremely enticing to teams. Several NBA scouts said he had the best summer of any college prospect in the draft despite really playing just two great games (one at LeBron's and one at Nations). If Oubre's shot is falling at KU, he'll be drafted early. However, he's going to have to develop a midrange game if he wants to move up another spot or two on our big board.
July 16 Update: Oubre is a gunslinger, with all the good and bad the description implies. He's a terrific athlete who can finish above the rim, and he's a good -- albeit streaky -- 3-point shooter. But he doesn't have a midrange game or much of a handle. He's the kind of guy who's either launching a 3 or dunking at the rim. And his personality can be polarizing. He reminds me a bit of a young J.R. Smith.
April 15 Update: Oubre is one of the more polarizing players in the class. He was essentially awful in his first few practices at the Hoop Summit, but he came on when the lights came on. He ended with 14 points, five rebounds and three assists in the game but was just 2-for-7 from 3-point range. He has good size for his position and is an elite athlete, and when he gets his jump shot going, he can be a lethal scorer. He also has no in-between game right now; it's 3-pointer or to the rim for him. His handle needs to tighten, he needs to add a midrange game, he needs to up his 3-point percentage from the low 30s to the high 30s and he needs to improve his shot selection. If he does all that, he has a great chance of being a lottery pick.
15 Frank Kaminsky 22 C 7-1 231 Wisconsin Mid-First Round Pick
June 18 Update: Kaminsky shot the lights out in his one-on-none workout. That shouldn't come as a huge surprise to those who followed him the past two years at Wisconsin. Kaminsky shot 42 percent from 3-point range this season as a senior and 38 percent as a junior. Still, his shooting prowess caught some NBA general managers off guard. "I knew he could shoot it," one GM told ESPN.com. "But not like that."
May 18 Update: Kaminsky didn't play at the combine, but he drew a lot of attention anyway for two reasons. One, he's a great interview. Everyone he spoke with came away impressed with his intelligence and personality. Second, he was the only player in the combine to measure with a shorter wingspan than height. His T-Rex status (big stature, little arms) is one of the reasons teams worry about him defensively in the NBA. While he was the tallest player (height-wise) of the players measured, a number of big men were taller when standing reach was measured. Some significantly. Nevertheless, if Kaminsky went to Miami, Indiana or Utah in the lottery it would surprise no one. If he slid down to the Bucks, I don't think that would be a strange outcome either. No. 10 to 17 seems like a very clear range for him.
Apr 29 Update: Kaminsky has a handful of teams that have him ranked in the top 10 and a handful of teams that believe he's peaked at Wisconsin and have him in the 20s. This ranking splits that difference. He had a tremendous season and has gotten most scouts on board, to a degree. But is he a lottery pick? He'll likely be matched up against Turner and Christian Wood in a lot of workouts. If he can score against length and athleticism in workouts, this is probably where he lands.
Apr 8 Update: Kaminsky had another virtuoso performance in the Final Four, with 20 points, 11 rebounds and 2 blocks against Kentucky's NBA front line, then scoring 21 points and grabbing 12 rebounds against Duke. Kaminsky went head-to-head against the potential No. 1 and No. 2 picks in the draft (Towns and Okafor) and the guy widely regarded as the best defender in the draft (Cauley-Stein), and he outplayed them all. Not only did he prove worthy of his title as Naismith Player of the Year, but even some of his harshest NBA critics had to concede that Kaminsky is just really good. No, he's not an elite athlete and he'll need to find the right fit and right offensive scheme in the NBA to thrive, but if he wasn't already a lock for the lottery, I think he is now. Look for him to go in the 10-to-15 range.
Mar 31 Update: Kaminsky continues to show his unique versatility for a 7-footer. Not only can he rebound, protect the rim and shoot the 3, but he's very skilled at catching the ball on the high post and creating for himself off the dribble. He had two outstanding games against North Carolina and Arizona, going for 19 points and eight boards against the Tar Heels while posting 29 points and six rebounds against the Wildcats. NBA scouts tend to be leery of seniors, especially ones who aren't explosive athletes, but Kaminsky has won most of them over. He should be a lottery pick and could go as high as No. 9 or 10. Scouts can't wait to see him matched up head-to-head with Towns and/or Cauley-Stein on Saturday.
Mar 23 Update: Kaminsky has moved into the discussion for a lottery pick and his play in the tournament so far supports that lofty draft position. He had 27 points and 12 rebounds and shot 3-for-5 from three against Coastal Carolina on Friday and then 16 points and seven rebounds against Oregon. Shot blocker Jordan Bell gave him a few issues, but he still got it done. What role he'll play in the NBA is still a source of serious debate, but Kaminsky's run of good tournament performances continue.
Mar 18 Update: Kaminsky, along with Duke's Jahlil Okafor, has been one of the best players in the country this season. He's a unique 5 who is comfortable playing both on the perimeter and in the paint. He has legitimate 3-point range on his jumper, and he is talented putting the ball on the floor from the high post and attacking the rim. He's a solid rebounder and shot-blocker as well. While he's mobile, his lack of explosive athleticism and strength put his ceiling quite a bit lower than Okafor's. Nevertheless, scouts continue to warm to him, and he now looks to be in the No. 10 to 15 range on most draft boards.
Mar 11 Update: Kaminsky continues to wow. It's tough for seniors to climb too high -- especially seniors like Kaminsky who lack flash or elite athleticism -- but, man, has he been good. He blocks shots, rebounds, scores in the paint and he's shooting 41 percent from 3-point range. He's carrying Wisconsin to a possible No. 1 seed. I understand upside issues, but after the above 12 guys are off the board, I think Kaminsky becomes close to a no-brainer pick.
Feb 11 Update: Sure, Kaminsky has his skeptics. Teams are worried about who he'll guard and whether he'll be anything more than a shooter at the next level. But the guy has been remarkably consistent for the second year in a row, not just as a shooter (50 percent on 2-point jumpers and 41 percent from 3) but also around the rim where he shoots 65 percent. His rebounding and assists numbers are up, too, and he still manages to block 1.6 shots per game. For a big man, he's well-rounded -- more than what scouts give him credit for.
Jan 28 Update: Kaminsky has followed up a very strong junior season with an elite senior season. He's a rare 5 who can rebound, block shots and stretch the floor. Of all the bigs on our list he's probably the best 3-point shooter (Turner would be a close second). The question so many scouts have is: Will his game translate? Will he be strong enough and athletic enough to guard in the post? And while he's proved to be a very good shooter the past two seasons from 3-point range (especially for a big), is that skill enough to make him a high draft pick? Some scouts strongly believe that it is. Others believe equally strongly that he'll struggle in the NBA. His ranking here essentially splits the difference.
Jan 6 Update: Kaminsky is Okafor's top challenger for college player of the year. However, he's not considered nearly the NBA prospect that Okafor is. His main calling card in the NBA will be his shooting touch from beyond the arc. He has been a good, but not elite, 3-point shooter this season. While he's shooting 38 percent from 3 overall, in the past month he's just 3-for-10.
Dec 17 Update: Kaminsky has cooled down a little since his red-hot start, but overall he still looks like the best stretch big man in the draft. He's shooting 42 percent from beyond the arc while averaging career highs in rebounds, assists and steals. I don't know many scouts who think Kaminsky will be a dominant pro, but he has a skill that runs in short supply in the NBA, making him a near lock to be drafted somewhere in the mid- to late first round
Dec 2 Update: Scouts have tried just about every argument possible to write off Kaminsky -- but he's making their job really hard. With the exception of one poor performance against Georgetown in the Bahamas, where 300-pounder Josh Smith just manhandled Kaminsky, he's been on fire -- especially as a shooter. Kaminsky is shooting 41 percent form 3-point range while averaging nearly 9 rebounds per game and an impressive 2.3 BPG. His 36.6 PER is fourth-highest among the players on our Big Board. He should be the first senior off the board and is a likely top-20 pick as a potential stretch 4 at the next level.
Nov 19 Update: Lots of teams like Kaminsky as a potential stretch four or stetch five in the league. He didn't have a great summer, but has looked good in the Badgers first few games. If he has a strong season, he's a lock for the first round.
Oct 2 Update: Here's a real disagreement between the stats and the scouts. Even after Kaminsky's impressive performance during Wisconsin's Final Four run -- he most memorably dominated No. 4 overall pick Aaron Gordon in the regional final -- he's still seen as a second-round selection. Statistically, Kaminsky is a standout -- a high-volume, high-efficiency scorer who is a threat from the college 3-point line. Unlike other perimeter-oriented big men such as Wisconsin predecessor Jon Leuer, Kaminsky is a useful shot-blocker. I could see him following in Spencer Hawes' footsteps as a pioneering stretch 5. Does he have the athleticism to do that as a starter?
Ford: I think that's part of the issue with Kaminsky. Obviously he had three terrific performances in the NCAA tournament against Oregon, Baylor and Arizona that helped his draft stock skyrocket. His last game, against Kentucky, where he scored just eight points and grabbed five rebounds left a sour taste in the mouth of scouts. Against a team loaded with more physical NBA-type players, he struggled. He also struggled a little bit against Noah Vonleh, another lottery pick, in his two matchups against Indiana. And for a junior, he was held in single digits in scoring 13 times last season.
But what really caused his draft stock to slide was a less-than-stellar performance this summer at the Adidas Nations camp where several scouts said he spent too much time on the perimeter (where his jump shot wasn't falling this time) and struggled with more physical, athletic defenders in the paint. He's no longer a surprise this year, and defenses will be geared up to stop him. If he was just having a bad week at Adidas Nations and comes back to Wisconsin and improves on his junior year, I think Kevin is right -- he could end up rising the same way Adreian Payne did as a senior. But if his progress stalls or declines, I think there's a good chance he falls out of the first round.
April 10 Update: Kaminsky said he was returning to Wisconsin for his senior season. Kaminsky had his coming-out party in a huge win against Arizona to propel Wisconsin to the Final Four. However, against Kentucky in the Final Four game, his stock came back down to earth a bit. He's very skilled for a big man and has NBA three-point range on his jumper, but he needs to add strength and improve his rebounding. He was a likely second-round pick if he declared this year. Another year to improve and get stronger could push him into the first round in 2015. He reminds me a bit of Channing Frye.
Apr 4 Update: Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton break down Frank Kaminsky from both a scouting perspective and through analytics in our latest Eyes, Ears and Numbers column.
Apr 2 Update: No one has had a coming-out party quite like Kaminsky has this year. Especially in a huge game against Arizona, he looked like a cross between Pau Gasol and Dirk Nowitzki, shooting 3-pointers and scoring around the rim. He was playing the game of his career at the absolute best time against an athletic Arizona frontcourt. His 28 points were tied for the second-highest point total of his career. His 11 rebounds were also his second-highest total.
Kaminsky is having a terrific year for Wisconsin, and there's no doubt he's an intriguing prospect thanks to his shooting touch and fluidity around the basket. But here is where you have to be careful about March Madness. Kaminsky was not highly regarded as a prospect coming into the tourney by scouts because he's a poor rebounder for a 7-footer, and he can be an inconsistent jump-shooter (he was just 1-for-8 from 3-point range in his first three games of the tournament). He has had other big games this year, but consistency is the key. While he would certainly get a lot of looks in the second round -- big men who can shoot it come at a premium, and if Byron Mullens can make it, Kaminsky probably can -- but no one is pegging him as the next Dirk or Pau just yet. But if he can lead Wisconsin to a national title, who knows.
Mar 17 Update: Kaminsky is having a very solid junior season. He has really improved is three point shooting, making him a threat both inside and outside. He needs to get stronger and will never be a dominant athlete, but he's been really solid for the Badgers this year and might be a possible second-round pick.
16 Bobby Portis 20 PF 6-11 246 Arkansas Mid First Round Pick
June 18 Update: Portis has received strong reviews wherever he's worked out. He has great size, a terrific motor, a good rebounder and shooter. He remains one of the safest picks in the draft.
May 18 Update: Portis' draft stock remains as steady as anyone not in the top four or five. He measured well, interviewed well and while his athletic numbers were disappointing (he topped out at 31 inches max vertical), I couldn't find a scout who didn't like him. Not one. "He's going to be in our league a long time," one GM said. "He plays hard, he rebounds, and he has a shot that is ugly, but it goes in and will be very hard to block. If you're looking for a solid rotation guy with an upside as a potential starter, he's your guy. And honestly, that's all you can really expect from this portion of the draft." Portis could go as high as Indiana at 11. Utah at 12, Atlanta at 15, Boston at 16, Milwaukee at 17 are all possibilities. I think Washington at 19 is his floor from the scuttle I heard in Chicago.
May 14 Update: I've been writing all year that Portis does everything well, but nothing great. I need to revise that statement.
After digging through more video of him over the past month and then watching him again in workouts, I do think there is something Portis does that's elite -- he hustles. He's a pretty low-key young man when you talk with him, but roll out the basketball and there are very few bigs in the game who play as hard as Portis does on both ends of the floor. That motor was evident in his workout here in Chicago. Despite being the biggest guy on the floor, he out hustled everyone here and really set the tone for the other players on the court. He also shot the ball very, very well for a big man. His shot release is a bit unorthodox (he let's it go from behind his head) but it goes in -- a lot.
Even his NBA 3-point stroke looked polished. To me, Portis is one of the lowest risk players in the draft. His ceiling might not be incredibly high (though there are enough pieces there physically and skills wise to make me rethink that) but his floor is very, very high. He's so fundamentally sound, I have a hard time seeing how a player with his size, motor and all-around game fails in the NBA. For a drafting team that simply cannot afford miss on a player, he's a very good pick. No. 13 to No. 20 continues to feel like the proper range for him in the draft.
Apr 29 Update: Portis is one of the clearest guys in the entire draft to project. Every single scout and GM I spoke with likes him. Every single one. But no one loves him. That's a really rare thing and why he's stuck right in the middle of the Big Board. This ranking is low enough to reflect the fact no one sees him as a star and high enough to show that no one thinks he'll be a bust. Look for him to go in the Nos. 13-to-20 range.
Apr 14 Update: Portis has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Portis has been one of the steadiest players on our Big Board. While he doesn't do any one thing at an elite level, he's one of the most well-rounded big men in the draft. He can score in the post, step out and hit the three, rebound and protect the rim. If he were a little taller, a little more explosive or a little more dominant at any of those skills, he'd be a top 5 pick. But as it stands, he's more likely in the 13 to 20 range.
Apr 8 Update: Portis has been solid all season but is seeing his draft stock slide as several other players with more upside put up big numbers in the tournament. Still, he's a complete big man and is going to be fine -- if he declares. If so, he should be in the 13-to-20 range.
Mar 23 Update: Portis had a very rough shooting tournament. He went 10-for-27 from the field and struggled to assert himself offensively in either game. However, he was absolutely terrific on the boards grabbing 13 rebounds against Wofford and 14 against North Carolina. He also had three assists and five steals against the Tar Heels, showing off his bona fide defensive skills. Portis is a bubble lottery pick right now and nothing he did or didn't do here should chance that. Look for him to go in the 13 to 18 range.
Mar 17 Update: Portis has quietly had one of the best sophomore campaigns in the country. While he isn't dominant at any one thing, there's very little he can't do. He can score from anywhere on the floor, can guard multiple positions, and he rebounds and blocks shots. He's just not particularly flashy. He's should fall somewhere in the No. 13 to 20 range.
Mar 11 Update: Portis finally got his chance to shine against Kentucky's NBA-level front line, and he put up very Portis-like numbers: 15 points and 8 rebounds while shooting 6-for-11 from the field. Nothing jaw-dropping, just the same quiet production he's posted all season for Arkansas. On Saturday, he dropped 24 points and 15 rebounds against two other NBA athletes -- Jarrel Martin and Jordan Mickey of LSU. Portis might not steal many highlights, but the guy can really play.
Feb 11 Update: Portis' outstanding season continues. He has recorded double-doubles in eight of his past nine games in SEC play. There's very little that's flashy about Portis' game, but he has been one of the most consistent players on the Big Board this season as a scorer, rebounder and lately as a shot-blocking threat. He's going to be hard to pass up once teams start drafting in the teens.
Jan 28 Update: Pelton and I wrote about Portis last week as a potential draft sleeper. He responded that evening by hitting the game-winning shot against Alabama (despite going just 4-for-12 from the field). On Sunday, he scored 12 points and grabbed 10 boards in a win against Missouri. While Portis isn't really an elite anything, he does just about everything a power forward should do well. That may never be enough to get him to crack the top 10, but it should put him somewhere in the late lottery to mid-first round.
Jan 22 Update: You were on to him early, Kevin, but I think Portis is really living up to the high expectations you put on him. He's a versatile offensive player, rebounds, blocks shots and is very, very consistent. He's really stepped up his game in conference play, averaging 23 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.5 bpg and 1.5 spg. I've moved him to No. 13 on my Big Board, but I have a feeling that you may have him ranked even higher.
Pelton: Actually, that's almost exactly where he sits in terms of WARP projections: 12th overall. Portis has taken a nice step forward as a sophomore, and now the skills that were a little more subtle last season have become obvious.
Jan 6 Update: I feel like Portis might be trying to get into the wrong draft. He has been good for Arkansas this season. Very good. It's just that there's such a glut of elite power forwards ahead of him on the board that he has struggled to stand out. Portis is one of those guys who does lots of things well, but doesn't necessarily excel at any one. Having a big game against Kentucky in late February might be his only real shot, given the weakness of the SEC, to show scouts he is better than they perceive.
Dec 31 Update: Portis has steadily improved on a solid freshman season but lacks the wow factor of Wood or Walker; he's a well-rounded power forward who does many things well, but doesn't excel at any one thing.
Dec 17 Update: Portis continues to be solid. More than solid, really. He's big, fairly athletic, scores and rebounds. He just doesn't do any one thing at an elite level. It's hard for him to wow you, though Portis is consistently putting up strong numbers every game. There isn't a lot of buzz on him from scouts right now, however. All I can ever get scouts to say is some version of "like him, don't love him."
Dec 2 Update: Portis is playing well enough early on, but there's been a bit of disappointment because he's putting up virtually identical numbers as last season. Scouts expected a bigger improvement after a strong summer. If Portis has indeed maxed out, he could slide a bit as we get closer to the draft. He was ranked in the mid-first round based on the hope that he would show marked improvement after a solid freshman campaign. If solid is all he is, he could fall into the second round.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: A- Portis got off to a great start on Sunday for Arkansas, scoring 24 points on 9-for-11 shooting from the field and 3-for-3 from beyond the arc. His measly rebounding numbers (four per game) were the only blemish versus Alabama State.
Oct 31 Update: Portis quietly had a very good freshman season at Arkansas. While there isn't one thing he does that is especially great, Portis is a good finisher at the rim, is a good shot-blocker and showed off the ability to pick up assists. His lack of elite athleticism lowers his ceiling a bit, but most scouts expect him to have a breakout season at Arkansas.
Oct 22 Update: I think Portis may be one of the most under-ranked players on our Board. He was a top-10 recruit coming out of high school and had a very solid freshman season, but it was largely lost amid the fervor over fellow freshmen Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid and a host of other one-and-done players. Then he was overshadowed again with all of the elite incoming freshmen from this year's class.
There's a lot to like about Portis as an NBA prospect. He's got great size for his position, shot a terrific percentage at the rim and was a very solid defender as a freshman. His jump shot is still a work in progress, but it's further along than most big men at his level. If he was an elite athlete, he'd be even higher, but I think he's got first-round potential, and maybe could even go in the late lottery. What do the numbers say, Kevin?
Kevin Pelton: One of the things I like about statistical projections for freshmen is they're often a year ahead of the hype. And I think that's the case with Portis. Even as scouts were more excited about the players you mentioned, Portis ranked near the top of my draft board last year. Now he's moved up to fourth. (By comparison, he ranks seventh on Chad's Big Board among returning prospects.)
A few things stand out with Portis. Last season, he blocked 5.9 percent of opponents' 2-point shots, a very good rate for a power forward. And he did that despite fouling incredibly rarely for a college post player -- just 2.6 per 40 minutes, and nearly a block per foul. That's usually a good sign of decision-making on when to challenge shots and when to stay home. Additionally, Portis' assist rate (3.0 per 40 minutes) was great for a freshman big. Compare that to Julius Randle, who averaged 1.8 assists per 40 minutes last season.
Still, Portis isn't my top-ranked SEC player. Let's return to the conference powers.
Sept. 9 Update: Portis drew some praise from scouts at the LeBron camp. He quietly had a strong freshman season and when you factor in his size, length and athletic abilities, there's a lot to like there. His play in the post needs to get stronger, but he's got the makings of a serviceable NBA rotation big.
July 16 Update: Portis had a very good freshman season at Arkansas, though it largely went unnoticed by NBA scouts. He has good size and length for his position and he's versatile: He can score both inside and outside. He will need to get better on the boards and continue to show scouts he's willing to work in the paint -- about 60 percent of his shots last season were jumpers. He shot a terrific 78 percent at the rim last year, but just 36 percent on his jumpers.
17 Sam Dekker 21 SF 6-9 219 Wisconsin Mid-First Round Pick
June 18 Update: Dekker is garnering some very positive reviews from teams in workouts. The key for him will be shooting, and several teams are telling me he's shot the ball well and has been aggressive.
May 18 Update: Dekker's athleticism shined in the lateral quickness drills at the combine. He ended up with the sixth-fastest time among the participants there. His vertical jump was a little disappointing (and no one was more disappointed than Dekker, who was begging to do it again), but I don't think it matters. It takes 10 minutes in the gym with him to know he's an elite athlete. The big question marks center on his shooting (see my scouting report on it from a workout I attended in Chicago here) and confidence. Was his lack of assertiveness a Bo Ryan issue or does Dekker think too much? The psych tests teams will give him over the next few weeks will get to the bottom of it.
May 14 Update: Seeing him on the court with three other good athletes -- Portis, Alexander and Nance -- Dekker really popped in his explosive leaping ability. It will be fascinating to see how he tests at the combine. I could see him doing very, very well. I asked Dekker what he's been working on the past six weeks in Chicago. "Getting my ballhanding down," Dekker told ESPN. "I've always been a good ball handler, but when you take it to the next level, you have to be even better. I'm also trying to get more consistent in my jump shot. I think I've taken long strides in my confidence and consistency. It's feeling good. But it can always get better."
Dekker also said he's been working on creating for others. He said that's an underrated part of his game that given the structure of Wisconsin's offense, he didn't always get to showcase. With more freedom and space in the NBA, he's hoping to show he can also be a great passer. The biggest question on every NBA scouts mind is his jump shot. Dekker with an elite jump shot is a top-10 pick. Without it, he's more of a mid-first round guy. The good news is that Dekker seems to be adjusting to the longer NBA 3-point line just fine. In one of the last drills of the morning, Dekker shot 16-of-25 from the NBA 3-point line. At this point Dekker isn't an elite 3-point shooter -- just a solid one. He can make that shot, but it's still inconsistent. Figuring that out (as many players like him have done before) will be a major key to his success in the NBA. His draft stock looks to be solidly in the No. 10 to No. 15 range.
Apr 29 Update: By now everyone knows what Dekker brings to the table. He's tough, versatile and, when he plays with swagger, he can kill you on both ends of the floor. How he shoots the ball in workouts (a major question mark) and whether he can bring that competitive fire to every single workout are the big questions from scouts at the moment.
Apr 10 Update: Dekker declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Dekker more than anyone helped his draft stock in the NCAA tournament the past few weeks. After spending the past couple of years in the 18-to-25 range on our Big Board, he played himself into a potential lottery pick with his hot shooting and aggressiveness scoring. When Dekker plays with swagger and when his shot is falling, he looks like one of the best players in the draft. When he's passive and struggling with his shot (he was 32 percent from 3-point range the past two seasons), he looks more like a late first-rounder. Thus, his draft range is pretty wide, likely between 13 and 22.
Apr 8 Update: Dekker had a major coming-out party in the NCAA tournament -- until his jump shot stopped falling and he took an elbow to the head in the title game versus Duke. Before Monday's game, he was shooting 15-for-30 from 3-point range, with huge games against Coastal Carolina, Oregon, North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky. However, his shot just didn't fall against Duke despite several clean looks. He went 0-for-6 from downtown and ended up with just 12 points on 6-for-15 shooting. More importantly, Dekker didn't get to the free throw line once in the game -- an annoying habit that has irked scouts all season. We knew Dekker would eventually revert back to the mean on shooting (he's closer to a 32 percent 3-point shooter than a 50 percent shooter), and unfortunately for him it happened in the most important game of the season. The title game definitely had a bit of a cooling effect on his red-hot draft stock, but Dekker still proved himself to be a possible late lottery selection. His draft range is 13 to 20 right now.
Apr 6 Update: The NCAA final is on Monday, and while NBA scouts didn't get to see the matchup they wanted between likely top two picks Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns, the consolation prize is pretty good. They do get to see the two hottest names in the NCAA tournament -- Duke's Justise Winslow and Wisconsin's Sam Dekker -- go head-to-head.
Q: Which wing has the better NBA future: Winslow or Dekker?
Ford: I really like both players -- a lot. Both are worthy of lottery picks in my opinion. However, I think Winslow is the better prospect. He's at No. 6 in my Top 100 and has been in the top 10 most of the year. Dekker's good, too. He's moved up to No. 13 in our updated Top 100, and I think he has a great shot in the lottery.
Kevin? I think you have a pretty different take.
Pelton: You might be surprised. I'm not as down on Winslow as my statistical projections. Even with his great run, Winslow still hasn't cracked the top 30 in projected WARP. However, when you break it down Winslow has really had three different seasons: non-conference play, when he was OK but unspectacular, a stretch early in ACC competition where he played ineffectively through multiple minor injuries and the last 20 games where he's emerged as a possible top-five pick.
Really, it's hard to tell statistically that these stat lines come from the same player:
If we do consider those three different prospects, Winslow's WARP projection is 1.3 from non-conference play (which would rank 35th among prospects in the top 100), 0.8 from the stretch where he dealt with injuries (49th) and 2.3 over the last 19 games (13th, but just behind fellow potential top-five picks Emmanuel Mudiay and Kristaps Porzingis).
I'm not sure we should completely discount the Winslow we saw over the first couple of months. In general, it's not a good idea to throw out data unless it's clearly flawed -- like Winslow's obviously aberrant performance while battling injuries. But this does give statistical backup for what scouts are seeing in Winslow, and frankly anyone who's watched him during the NCAA tournament.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but at this point Dekker might be a touch overrated. For the first time, he's actually higher on your board than mine (15th) since his big NCAA tournament has been built largely on unsustainably hot shooting that hasn't improved his projection. So I would pick Winslow.
Q: What are Dekker's strengths and weaknesses as a pro?
Ford: He's got great size for his position. He's 6-foot-9 and can play the two, three and four. He's incredibly tough and scrappy. He's a very good athlete with quickness and explosion at the rim. When he's keyed in, he can be very aggressive and score from anywhere on the floor. He's especially effective scoring at the rim (shooting a very impressive 75 percent) and while he's a streaky 3-point shooter, he clearly has the range. His super-low turnover rate is also really impressive.
On the downside, Dekker can disappear for stretches and even entire games. The hyper-aggressive Dekker we've seen for most of the NCAA tournament (he did disappear in the middle of the Kentucky game before coming on strong at the end) isn't always the Dekker we've seen this season. And while he's been nailing 3s in the tournament, coming into the tournament, he was shooting just a shade above 30 percent from the season.
Pelton: That's a pretty good summary. Dekker's turnover-free play is a secret strength, one reason the numbers have always been so effusive even when he wasn't making 3s. Dekker is also a high-percentage 2-point shooter: 63.8 percent this season. The lack of aggression is reflected in Dekker's poor free throw rate. One other weakness I'd note is Dekker's steal rate is a touch low for a perimeter player -- though nowhere near a red flag.
Q: Who are the comps for Winslow and Dekker?
Ford: As for Dekker, I keep hearing Gordon Hayward and Keith Van Horn, because, as you know, there's an unwritten rule that all white players have to be compared to other white players. But the two guys that remind me the most of Dekker are Luol Deng and Jeff Green. What do your numbers say, Kevin? I admit I'm horrible at finding comps. Both guys are pretty unique.
Pelton: SCHOENE isn't much help with Dekker. His best comp by a large margin is James Anderson, the Oklahoma State wing who evolved into a one-dimensional 3-point specialist before falling out of the NBA. I can't say I see Dekker following the same path. Hayward actually scores as reasonably similar, though he's a much better shooter than Dekker. A subjective comp I've been using is Harrison Barnes in terms of a wing with size, but Barnes, too, shoots it better. Dekker might just be one of a kind. Mar 31 Update: No one has helped himself in the tournament more than Dekker. After a 20-point game against Coastal Carolina and a 17-point outing against Oregon, he took it to another level against North Carolina and Arizona. Facing two very good defenders in UNC's J.P. Tokoto and Arizona's Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Dekker scored 23 points and grabbed 10 boards against the Tar Heels and added 27 points and five boards against Arizona. He's been doing everything for the Badgers, but what really has scouts excited is his shooting: He's shot 13-for-27 from 3-point range in the tournament. When Dekker is nailing jump shots and playing with the swagger he has this tournament, he looks like a lottery pick. He's been as high as No. 18 on our Big Board and as low as 25, but with his strong play over the past month he's now in the late teens. A big game against Kentucky on Saturday could push him even higher.
Mar 23 Update: Dekker has had a solid, if unspectacular season, but so far he's been great in the tournament. He had 20 points and shot 4-for-8 from 3 against Coastal Carolina and followed it with 17 points, five rebounds while shooting 3-for-8 from behind the arc. It's the combination of size, toughness, athleticism and 3-point shooting that really interests scouts. He's struggled a bit from beyond the arc as a junior. A good shooting tournament probably is the best outcome for Dekker who sits firmly on the first-round bubble.
Mar 17 Update: Dekker has been a favorite of scouts since his freshman year, though his development seems to have stalled a bit. Still, he's a tough, versatile forward who can score in multiple ways and defend two positions on the floor. He's in the No. 20 to 35 range on our board.
Mar 11 Update: Dekker's toughness, versatility and consistency are keeping him in the first-round mix. He hasn't had a dominant junior season, but scouts are so fond of him for all the little things he does, like Hollis-Jefferson, to make his team better.
Feb 11 Update: Dekker remains the love child of the analytics crowd. His numbers are essentially flat this season with a slight uptick in field goal percentage. It's his toughness, versatility and athleticism that get scouts the rest of the way. He's unlikely to ever crack the lottery, but he also feels like a lock to be in the mid-first round.
Jan 6 Update: Dekker seems to have recovered from the ankle injury that plagued him early in the season; he has been stronger the past few weeks. Shooting always has been the big indicator of his NBA worth from scouts. He shot 39 percent from 3 as a freshman, 33 percent as a sophomore and is back up to 39 percent this season. If he can keep knocking down shots, he has all of the other tools -- namely toughness, athleticism -- to make a terrific NBA small forward.
Dec 2 Update: Dekker has been nursing an ankle injury that has slowed him this season. But he's coming off consecutive 17-point games against Milwaukee and Nicholls State and might finally be turning the corner. His ankle is starting to feel better and it shows on the court. Scouts still remember how dominant he was this summer. If he can get healthy and back to form, he'll start rising on the draft board again. ,p> Dec 2 Update: Dekker's stats are never going to wow you. But his toughness and versatility make him an intriguing prospect. One aspect of his game that continues to draw question marks, however, is Dekker's shooting. He appeared to be a lights-out shooter as a freshman, but he's down to 29 percent on 3s and just 33 percent on 2s. That number has to increase if Dekker is going to ever find his way into the lottery.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: B Dekker is averaging 16.5 PPG, 3 RPG and 2 APG in the Badgers' first two outings. The number to watch for him is that 3-point shooting. He's just 2-for-6 in the early going.
Nov 6 Update: I've spilled a lot virtual ink on Dekker lately. The stat guys love him. He had a terrific summer. He's on one of the top three teams in the country. If his 3-point shot falls with more consistency this season, he's a lottery pick. Even if it doesn't, I think his toughness and versatility will land him somewhere in the first round.
Oct 21 Update: Scouts have been intrigued with Dekker since his freshman year. He's a versatile forward who can do a bit of everything and plays with a really high basketball IQ. He's got the athleticism and toughness to succeed, and he even grew a bit over the summer. He drew as much praise as any returning college player this summer at the LeBron James Skills Academy.
I think the question for Dekker centers on position. Who does he guard and can he shoot the ball well enough to be a NBA 3-point threat? What do the numbers say, Kevin? I know they loved him as a freshman.
Pelton: And loved him as a sophomore as well. When you take out freshmen and international players, we actually both have Dekker ranked in the same spot among returning players. But he's still likely to grade out as a lottery pick if not top 10 by my metric once those players are included.
Despite slumping to 32.6 percent beyond the arc, Dekker was still efficient last season because he made 55.0 percent of his 2-point attempts. And he gets a hidden boost from his sure-handed ballhandling. He turned the ball over on just 8.8 percent of his plays. Those skills should translate well to the NBA.
Sept. 9 Update: Dekker was a bit of a disappointment as a sophomore, but his play this summer at LeBron's camp turned heads. He's grown to 6-foot-9, showed off an impressive arsenal of offensive skills when freed from Wisconsin's restrictive offense and played with great energy. Teams still aren't sure what position he can defend, but he did enough this summer to get back into the lottery discussion.
July 16 Update: Dekker was a favorite of the analytics crowd after a very effective freshman season, but he came back down to earth a bit as a sophomore. He has size and athleticism for his position, but his jump shot accuracy faded significantly as a sophomore and damaged his draft stock. There are a lot of teams still interested, but he'll need to bounce back as a junior.
April 10 Update: Dekker said he will return to Wisconsin for his junior season. He has been a favorite of NBA personnel since a stellar freshman campaign. While he got better as sophomore, the improvement wasn't enough to dramatically increase his draft stock. He was perceived as a late-first to early-second-round pick. With another year to continue to develop his game (and hopefully add even more consistency to his three-point shot) he could be a mid-to-late first-round pick in 2015.
Apr 2 Update: Dekker was supposed to be the Wisconsin guy who was going to be a lock for the first round, but he has had a pretty quiet tournament. He had just seven points and took only five shots against Arizona, though he crashed the glass and made a number of other key plays. His stock as a first-rounder is in flux right now. He's on the bubble, but a great Final Four could push him back firmly into the first round.
Mar 20 Update: Dekker was more highly regarded going into the season than he is now. He's a versatile swingman who can score from anywhere and defend multiple positions, but he needs to have that jump shot falling with regularity if he wants to hear his name called earlier than the 20s.
Mar 5 Update: Dekker was a darling of the NBA scouting crowd last year, but he has had an up-and-down sophomore season. When his jump shot is falling, he can be one of the more versatile players in the draft. With Michael Kidd-Gilchrist still figuring things out, Dekker could provide the Bobcats with another look at small forward.
Feb 11 Update: Dekker's jump shot is finally back on the upswing, which is really good news for both his draft stock and Wisconsin's prospects this season. Dekker is 7-for-13 from 3 in his last two games, which were both big wins for Wisconsin. While Dekker is a very versatile player, his draft stock will ultimately hinge on whether teams think he can knock down shots from the perimeter.
Jan 29 Update: Dekker continues to have a lot of fans, but his 3-point shooting woes the past month have hurt his stock. Dekker is down to 32 percent on 3s and has hit just four of his last 18 attempts. He has to be a better shooter from distance to crack the top 20.
Jan 23 Update: Dekker brings toughness and versatility to the table -- two attributes Clippers coach Doc Rivers loves. Dekker hasn't quite lived up to the expectations he created as a freshman, but NBA scouts still think he can be a tough role player in the pros, and he gives the Clippers help at a position where they could use some depth.
Dec. 17 Update: Dekker has had double-doubles in two of his last five games, and another eight rebounds and six assists against Milwaukee. When his shot is falling, he's one of the more versatile players in the country. Not every scout in the NBA is in love with him. But those that are, really are.
Nov. 27 Update: He hasn't exactly dominated the way some scouts had hoped he would, but Dekker has played his usual efficient game in Wisconsin's predictably efficient offense. The NBA teams that heavily rely on analytics continue to love him.
Nov. 12 Update: Dekker's numbers last year suggested that he was a top-10 prospect in last year's draft, and another year at Wisconsin should allow him to continue to grow as a player. The scouts who have been doing their homework on him all come away very impressed. On opening night he scored 16 points, grabbed six rebounds and shot 6-for-14 from the field.
Nov. 7 Update: Dekker is a favorite of the analytics crowd after a great freshman season at Wisconsin. He's a terrific shooter who plays with tremendous basketball IQ and effort. He needs to work on his midrange game, but scouts feel his upside as a point forward-type player is tremendous.
Sept 9 Update: Statheads are in love with Dekker. So are teams that value athletic wings who can shoot the basketball. Dekker had a very solid freshman season, and teams are expecting a breakthrough campaign. A savvy, stat-centric team like the Hawks are sure to pounce on him -- especially with Kyle Korver as the only real 3-man on the roster at the moment.
Aug 13 Update: Dekker is a favorite of the analytics crowd after a very effective freshman season. Not only does he have size and athleticism for his position, he's also a deadly shooter. He reminds a lot of scouts of Gordon Hayward.
Mar 20 Update: But the real prize is Dekker. He's not ready yet, but his versatility and size draw comparisons to a young Gordon Hayward. Next year, he could be a potential first-round pick.
Oct 7 Update: Dekker doesn't look like a NBA player at first glance. But he's got crazy range on his jump shot, is a terrific athlete and he's drawn raves for his toughness from the guys at USA Basketball. One scout sees some Gordon Hayward in him.
18 Kevon Looney 19 PF 6-9 222 UCLA Mid-First Round Pick
June 18 Update: He shot the ball really well from NBA 3 in warm-ups, but less so in the actual workout. He showed off his versatility handling the ball and shooting off the bounce, which excited many scouts. But he also showed several characteristics that make other scouts leery. While the workout itself was fast-paced, Looney clearly was fatigued at the end.
May 18 Update: Looney's draft stock might be the most fluid of anyone in our top 30. Teams are either hot or cold on him. There doesn't seem to be much in between. I had a couple of teams tell me he was a lock for the top 10 (one had him at No. 5 on their board) and I had several tell me that he was a late first-rounder (one had him as low as 30). He measured with a crazy long 7-foot-3 wingspan and was great in interviews, but some teams (based on his body fat measurement and his tendency to get winded in UCLA games) question his conditioning and whether he might have asthma. Looney is putting on a team workout in L.A. on Friday. I expect that if he's able to show off the versatility that he has, he'll jump right back up on the board.
Apr 29 Update: Looney heads up a third tier of four freshmen who all have enormous potential but lack the polish or definitive skill set of the players in our top eight. Those who love Looney point to his crazy wingspan, excellent offensive rebounding numbers and versatility. The versatility is the key. Scouts who saw him in practices at UCLA were often the ones raving about him the most. He can do more than he showed on the court as a power forward at UCLA. For his detractors, his lack of strength and clear position are the big question marks. Workouts will be key to proving what position Looney projects to at the next level.
Apr 8 Update: Kevin Pelton and I broke down Looney's production-versus-potential question. Needless to say, there's a general split among NBA scouts about where he should be drafted. The potential crowd has him in the Nos. 5-to-10 range. The production crowd has him in the Nos. 10-to-20 range. Luckily for Looney, there are more ambitious GMs and scouts in the potential group than the production group, and I think his draft range is currently somewhere between Nos. 7 and 14.
Mar 31 Update: Looney had another solid game in the tournament, posting 9 points, 8 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal and a block in a loss to Gonzaga. He still has lacked assertiveness since suffering the facial fracture in the Pac-12 tournament and, overall, he just isn't the same player we've seen most of the season. Scouts are willing to let most of it pass. It's his length, skill set and toughness they are after. But it wouldn't hurt Looney to return to school for his sophomore season. He could add strength, continue to work on his perimeter game and be a top-five pick in 2016. As it stands, he's probably in the seven-to-12 range.
Mar 26 Update: Question: Is UCLA's Kevon Looney really a top 10 pick in this year's draft? Is he really ready for the NBA?
Ford: You really have to divorce those two questions from each other. NBA readiness is part of the draft equation, but it isn't the draft equation. Too many people look at box scores or see a player have an unimpressive game and dismiss them as NBA prospects. That especially happens with young players who aren't physically ready to dominate college, let alone the pros.
Scouts have consistently ranked him in the top 10 all season. He's gone as high as No. 5 on our Big Board and currently is No. 7. If he declares for the draft (a big if), I think he'll go somewhere in the 6-to-12 range.
Where do the numbers have him ranked Kevin? Is he worthy of a lottery pick?
Pelton: I have him ranked 22nd in projected WARP, but that sounds worse than it is. There's a logjam in the late teens in early 20s of players with WARP projections right around 2.0 (Looney is at 2.0 on the dot). That typically puts players in the third tier of my projections and suggests a player who's likely to become a quality starter. Because there's so little separation, when Looney's rank on Chad's big board is factored in, Looney ranks ninth in the consensus draft projection I recently introduced.
As for readiness, he does project slightly better than replacement level next season. Given the recent history of one-and-done prospects outside the top five, however, I wouldn't be stunned if he ends up taking something of a redshirt year.
Question: What are Looney's strengths and weaknesses?
Ford: Scouts love Looney despite the fact he's raw in several areas.
He has great size for his position, has a freaky wingspan and is a good athlete for someone his size, so he checks all the boxes when it comes to size and athleticism. Looney also possesses NBA skills. He's very good on the offensive boards thanks to his pterodactyl-like wingspan and can step out and shoot. He led the country in double-doubles for a freshman, nearly averaged a double-double for the season and shot 43 percent from 3 this season.
And despite his slim frame, he's much tougher than he looks. When Kentucky beat down UCLA in Chicago, he was the only UCLA player out there still fighting. He's playing the role of power forward at UCLA, but he has small forward skills, as well. He can handle the ball and see the floor. Scouts got to see that whenever they showed up at UCLA practice. There's more to his game than he shows.
On the downside, his midrange game is a work in progress. He shot just 24 percent on his 2-point jumpers this season. He needs to get stronger and more assertive as an offensive player. He's definitely a work in progress and might need time to develop at the next level. But it's not like he had a terrible freshman season by any means.
Kevin, what do the numbers say about his strengths and weaknesses?
Pelton: Comparing Looney to combo forwards, rebounding is naturally a strength. Surprisingly, that wouldn't be the case if we considered Looney a pure power forward. His double-doubles overstate his rebounding ability a little bit. His steal rate is also good for a frontcourt player, and Looney rarely turned the ball over.
Looney's only statistical weakness relative to combo forwards was his low usage rate. His 2-point percentage also is a bit of a concern. Because of the poor percentage on 2-point jumpers you mentioned, he made just 47.7 percent of his 2-pointers overall. That's poor for an NBA prospect who played primarily on the interior.
Question: Who does Looney compare to as an NBA player?
Ford: I've heard a lot of scouts compare him to a young Lamar Odom. I see that potential as a long, versatile forward who can do lots of different things on the court. Noah Vonleh, who went No. 9 in last year's draft, is another comp -- though Vonleh was more of a traditional power forward.
Pelton: The closest comparisons at the same age in my database are almost entirely perimeter-oriented combo forwards: Thaddeus Young, Maurice Harkless, Marvin Williams and Rudy Gay score better than 95 in terms of similarity. The other interesting name is Kawhi Leonard. Leonard was a year older when he entered the NBA, and has a slightly lower similarity score (93.6) in large part because he'd showed more perimeter skills. Leonard was a better free throw shooter, handed out more assists and created more offense. But their other stats are reasonably similar.
The danger of mentioning Leonard is that he nailed the conversion to small forward faster than anyone could have possibly imagined, developing into a capable 3-point shooter during the lockout before his rookie season. That's an unfair standard for any prospect. But it does speak to Looney's potential.
Mar 23 Update: Looney suffered a facial fracture in the Pac 12 tournament and it's clearly affecting his assertive. Still, that didn't stop Looney, who led all freshmen this season with 15 double-doubles, from picking up a 16th against UAB on Saturday. He had another 10 boards against SMU -- and a total of nine of those 21 rebounds this weekend were on the offensive glass. While he's a skilled offensive player that can shoot 3s and handle the ball, he's still figuring things out on that end and whoever takes him knows they'll be getting a player that might take another couple of years to develop. But the upside (7-foot-5 wingspan, athleticism, basketball IQ, rebounding ability) are so high, I'm still hearing consistently that he's in the six to 12 range in the draft.
Mar 19 Update: UCLA might have been a controversial choice to make the tournament, but scouts are relieved. Looney projects as one of the top 10 players in the draft, and the more they can see him against elite talent, the better. He suffered a facial fracture in the Pac-12 tournament, which limited his effectiveness after he was forced to don a protective mask. But it's unlikely to matter what he does. Teams that are high on him are crazy about his Inspector Gadget-long arms, versatility and toughness. He's still a major work in progress, but if he ever gets it, he could be a better version of Lamar Odom.
Mar 11 Update: This is where things start to get much more fluid on the Big Board. Anyone ranked from No. 6 to No. 12 could end up here. Looney isn't having a dominant freshman season, but his upside keeps him ranked this high on the Big Board. He has crazy length, is a terrific rebounder and should be able to play multiple positions on both ends of the floor. He nearly averaged a double-double as a freshman and showed fight even when UCLA was struggling. Right now, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Bruins on the wrong side of the bubble for the NCAA tournament. If UCLA does not make the tourney, has Looney done enough to secure his place as a top-10 pick? Virtually every scout I spoke with thinks the answer is yes. There is just too much upside to ignore.
Feb 11 Update: While Looney himself remains a work in progress, he's the only freshman in the country averaging a double-double. As raw as he has looked offensively on occasion, the potential to be a star down the road is there. He's long, athletic and covers so much space. His rebounding numbers are especially impressive and he's begun to show the makings of a perimeter game. Whichever team drafts him is taking him based on upside -- but his upside is really, really big.
Jan 28 Update: Looney is another upside pick. While his game, both offensively and defensively, is raw, the tools are there for him to be a Lamar Odom-type player at the next level. Thanks to his length, good athleticism and terrific motor, there isn't much Looney can't do. He's an excellent rebounder, especially on the offensive glass (he's currently averaging a double-double). He has 3-point range on his jump shot. He can handle the ball and he can play in the post. His performance the past five games in Pac-12 play has been pretty encouraging. Looney needs to get stronger and polish virtually every area of his game, but there is so much potential that he looks like a lock as a top-10 pick.
Jan 6 Update: After a strong start to the season, Looney has been in a major offensive slump since the Kentucky game Dec. 20. He had just four points against Alabama, six against Colorado and eight against Utah on Sunday. Unfortunately, his elite rebounding numbers have dipped as well. UCLA, as a team, is a mess, but scouts seem less discouraged by Looney's poor play of late.
"I saw him in practice and the kid does so much more than he's really allowed to do on the court," one scout said. "UCLA needs him to play a certain way because they just don't have any real bigs to rely on. I think he has all the skills to be an NBA small forward. The more you see him in practice, the more you know there's more there than he's showing in games right now."
Dec 22 Update: Scouts love seeing top prospects go against Kentucky. Rockets GM Daryl Morey tweeted during Saturday's game that "One nice thing when U R watching Kentucky, U get 2see how players on the other team would do against an NBA team #UKvsUCLA."
The main attraction on the other side of the court on Saturday was UCLA freshman forward Kevon Looney. Looney is ranked No. 5 on our Big Board and has the type of length, athleticism and motor to hang with the Kentucky players. It was a pretty rough outing for Looney. He struggled mightily to finish inside against Cauley-Stein and Towns, and while he's normally a beast on the offensive boards, he wasn't quite as dominant as he normally is. He finished the game with nine points, nine rebounds and two blocks but shot just 4-for-14 from the floor. Nevertheless, it wasn't all bad for Looney. He was the one player for UCLA who didn't seem to back down from Kentucky. He kept attacking the entire game, made some athletic plays on the defensive end and showed NBA scouts why they loved him in the first place.
"I think we saw a couple of things," one NBA scout said after the game. "One, we saw he's going to struggle coming out of the gate playing in the NBA. Kentucky took away a lot of things he likes to do. Like most rookies, it's going to be a big adjustment. Second, I think you saw the talent and the character he has. He fought the whole game. He kept coming at the them, and he missed a few shots that really just rimmed out. If he was 7-for-14 from the floor with 15 points and nine boards, we'd be saying he actually played well versus UK. I think he's going very, very high."
Dec 17 Update: Looney continues to stand out primarily as an offensive rebounder. His 14.3 offensive rebound rate ranks second in the Pac-12. His length, athleticism and activity around the rim have scouts excited. However, they're still waiting for that perimeter game he showed off in college to emerge. His field goal percentage has edged up to 37 percent on his 2-point jumpers, but he's shooting just 20 percent from 3.
Dec 2 Update: Looney is off to a great start at UCLA. He has especially stood out as an offensive rebounder. He has a 15.6 offensive rebounding rate. He uses his long arms and terrific motor to constantly crash the boards. He's taking 65 percent of his shots at the rim and is converting 58 percent of them. What Looney needs to improve is his perimeter game. Billed as a versatile player coming out of high school, he has yet to find his range on his jumper. He's shooting just 28.6 on his 2-point jumpers and 22 percent on his 3s. Even if that jump shot never comes, his size and length still project him as a potential elite 4 in the NBA.
Nov 26 Update: We've had Looney in our top 10 since the summer. His play in the first four UCLA games suggests he'll be staying there all year. The freshman is averaging 14.8 points, 12 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.3 steals per game. Those rebounding numbers are especially attractive for Looney. But it's just the beginning. He can also handle the ball and stretch the floor. He's not being asked to do that on a regular basis for UCLA, but scouts know he's one of the most versatile players in the draft. He needs to add more toughness to his game, however. If he can keep up the momentum, I think he could be a top-five pick.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: A- Looney got off to a terrific start on Friday, scoring 20 points and grabbing nine rebounds in an opening win versus Montana State. He also had three assists, a steal and a block and got to the line a crazy 17 times. He followed it up with 17 points, 14 rebounds and three assists versus Coastal Carolina on Sunday. He got to the line another 11 times on Sunday. Looney is a real wild card in the lottery and his hot start bodes well for his placement in our top 10.
Nov 6 Update: Looney is a versatile forward who, at 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, has elite size for his position. He is athletic, plays inside and out and even played point guard for his high school team as a senior. You won't find a more versatile player in the draft. If he has a big season for UCLA, he could sneak into the top five. A lot of scouts believe he might be the second coming of Lamar Odom.
Sept. 9 Update: Looney wasn't as highly ranked coming out of high school in Milwaukee as several of the freshmen below him on the board, but a couple of scouts who I trust rave that Looney could be a star. He's an athletic, 6-foot-10 forward who can play both the 3 and the 4. He has toughness, plays defense, can handle the ball and shoot off the dribble. He didn't play at Adidas Nations because of an injury, but that hasn't stopped scouts from predicting he could go very high with a big freshman year at UCLA. He's going to be a great fit in Steve Alford's offense.
June 28 Update: Looney averaged 27.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, 8.0 blocks, 7.0 assists and 2.5 steals per game as a senior. He shot 60 percent from the field, 43 percent from 3-point range and 77 percent from the free throw lineLooney should come in and play a big role at UCLA right away. He's got a lot of tools and has the athletic ability to be a great pro and he's playing in the perfect system for him. He just needs to add strength and consistency. If he gets it going as a freshman, he could easily be a lottery pick. But he might be a year away from really reaching his potential.
19 Rashad Vaughn 18 SG 6-5 199 UNLV Mid-First Round Pick
June 18 Update: Vaughn had the best workout I've seen the past few weeks on the road. Crammed into the Boys & Girls Club in Santa Monica along with 150 scouts lining the walls, he put on a shooting show, effortlessly knocking down shots from everywhere on the floor, outshooting two of the better shooters in the draft -- Notre Dame's Pat Connaughton and Stanford's Anthony Brown.
May 18 Update: Vaughn surprised everyone here by not participating in the 5-on-5. Apparently his agent had better info than we had. Of all the players on the proverbial first-round bubble, it's Vaughn who has appeared to have made the most strides since declaring for the draft. "I think a lot of times with those bubble freshmen, you think you have another year to evaluate, so you focus on what they need to work on," one GM said. "But once it was a reality that he was in the draft, the question becomes, 'Can he play?' and I think the more we watch him, especially in the second half of the season, the answer is yes. He's got a chance. He's young, but he can really score in just about every way." The range right now seems to be 20 to 40, but a lot of teams had him in the 20s.
Mar 30 Update: Vaughn has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Vaughn was touted as one of the best scoring freshman guards in the country, and for the most part lived up to the expectations, averaging 17.8 PPG for UNLV. A torn meniscus ended Vaughn's season prematurely, but he should be fine by the draft. The question is where will he go? At the start of the season, a number of scouts saw him as a potential late first-rounder. Over time his stock has slipped into the second round as teams worry a bit about his lack of elite length and efficiency for his position. Once the draft field clears up a bit he should be in the 25-to-45 range.
Dec 31 Update: Vaughn may be the best pure scorer of the group, but he lacks the jump shot and shot selection to really move up in the rankings.
Nov 18 Update: The best freshman performance of the weekend went to UNLV's Rashad Vaughn. Vaughn had 26 points and seven rebounds in a win for UNLV. He was less effective against Sam Houston, scoring 18 points, but shooting 7-for-19 from the field. Vaughn is one of the best scorers in the country and clearly he's going to have a green light for the Running Rebels this season. But to really make a push for the lottery, he's going to have to shoot better than 4-for-13 from 3-point range.
Sept 12 Update: The best freshman not to make the list is Vaughn, a scoring machine that should put up big numbers right away for UNLV. The question is, will he put up efficient numbers? Scouts know he has the strength and athleticism to score, but he needs to shoot a much higher percentage from the field and 3-point line in college to convince them he can do it well in the NBA.
20 Jerian Grant 22 PG 6-4 198 Notre Dame Mid-First Round Pick
June 18 Update: Grant's workouts have been strong, but he's still battling perceptions that his age limits his upside. Teams drafting to hit a home run will likely pass. But teams that love his experience, playmaking ability and toughness are fans.
May 18 Update: Grant is one of two guys at this portion in the draft who appears to be universally liked by teams. While some people quibble a bit with his jumper ("I'm surprised at his 3-point shooting percentage," one GM said. "Just based on what I saw on tape, I thought the percentage would be higher"), the only real issue is his age. If he were 19, he'd be a lock for the top 10. Instead he'll turn 23 before the season, a red flag for some. But for others, it won't be a major one. "Given the offense they ran at Notre Dame, you know he can play the pick-and-roll as well as anyone and that translates," one GM said. "I love the leadership he showed as well. Maybe his ceiling isn't as high as some, but he's another guy that I just don't see failing." His range is very similar to Cameron Payne's. He could go as high as Indiana at 11, Utah at 12, OKC at 14 or the Rockets at 18.
Apr 29 Update: Grant is the second senior off the board and is highly regarded by most scouts and GMs. While people worry a bit about his age, his jumper and what position he'll play in the NBA, most see him contributing right away at the NBA level. Scouts will be watching his jumper closely in workouts. That's the missing piece to an otherwise very well-rounded game.
Apr 8 Update: If Grant were 19 or 20 years old, he'd be a top-10 pick. He has had as good a season as anyone on the board. However, he turns 23 before opening night of the 2015-16 NBA season, and that "older age" often scares teams from taking a player so high. But Grant actually put up slightly better numbers as a junior, when he was just 21. So Grant's season wasn't a fluke, nor was it good just because he was older than his opponents. I think he might be the most underrated guy on our Board. And like so many players right now in this area of the draft, he could go anywhere from No. 14 to 22.
Mar 31 Update: Grant played every minute for Notre Dame in this tournament, a whopping 165 minutes in four games. While he didn't have a breakout game and struggled with his shooting stroke (he went 2-for-8 from 3 and just 7-for-24 from the field this weekend), he showed off his hypercompetitiveness, an advanced feel for the pick-and-roll game, hit a couple of big shots and had 17 assists to just three turnovers this weekend, outplaying both Andrew Harrison and Tyler Ulis. Grant's play likely secured the senior a place as a top-20 pick in this year's draft.
Mar 23 Update: Grant didn't really have a breakout performance, but when the games were on the line versus Northeaster and Butler, Grant came through with big plays (a steal versus Northeastern and a key assist versus Butler). If there's a knock on Grant it's his inconsistent shooting and scouts saw that this weekend (he shot 1-for-6 from 3) but Grant played every minute for Notre Dame and is a clear leader on the floor. Like Dunn, he's in that 13 to 20 mix in the draft. He or Kaminsky should be the first senior off the board.
Mar 16 Update: Grant continues to be one of the more intriguing prospects in the draft. He's got NBA size, athleticism, can get wherever he wants to on the floor, sees the court very well and plays in attack mode all the time. His age and his hot-and-cold jump shot hold him back a little, but after Emmanuel Mudiay and Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, he might be the best point guard prospect in the draft. He's in the 15-to-25 range on most NBA teams' draft boards. A big game versus Kentucky, assuming an Elite Eight matchup, would clearly solidify his spot.
Mar 11 Update: While everyone is on the Grant bandwagon this season, it's easy to forget that before he was suspended for academic reasons, he was actually having, across the board, an even better junior season at Notre Dame. Still, the long, athletic point guard has won his fair share of fans among scouts who believe that his versatility could make him an ideal guard coming off the bench at either the point or off-guard position at the next level.
Feb 11 Update: Will the real Jerian Grant please stand up? Is he the guy who dropped 23 points, 12 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 blocks and 3 steals against Duke on Jan. 28? Or is he the guy who posted only 7 points, 4 assists and 1 rebound against Duke on Feb. 7? His size for the position, athleticism and ability to guard multiple spots on the floor are all major positives. But at his age, scouts want consistency and they want to see him lead Notre Dame deep into the postseason. I still think there's a chance he could crack the lottery with a strong finish. But there's also a chance he could slide out of the first round with a poor finish.
Jan 6 Update:Grant continues to make the case that he's the best point guard in college basketball. He can do everything. He's got great size, can score the basketball from anywhere on the floor and is sporting a ridiculous 3.9-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. There are some questions about his jump shot (40.5 percent from 2 and 35.1 percent from 3) but his numbers have been solid. When he gets to the rim, however, he's shooting an astonishing 85 percent. His explosive dunk against Georgia Tech on Saturday was one of the highlights of the season. Even when he's not scoring the basketball, like in Monday's win over North Carolina, he's making his presence felt in other ways (he had eight assists and just two turnovers against UNC). Age is really the only argument that you can make against Grant right now. He'll turn 23 before the start of the 2015-16 NBA season. In my mind, he's right there with Okafor and Kaminsky for college player of the year.
Dec 17 Update: Grant cracked this list last season before he was ruled academically ineligible for the second half of the season. Now that he's back and repeating, and in some ways surpassing his terrific junior season, scouts are beginning to buzz about him as one of the sleepers in the draft. Jerian is more well-rounded than his brother Jerami (who was drafted by the 76ers in the second round of the 2014 NBA draft). He's a terrific athlete, plays with a high basketball IQ and sees the floor well. Scouts love big, athletic point guards and Grant has been as good as any player in the country this season. He's even shooting the ball from 3-point range well, hitting 38 percent on five attempts a game. There are some scouts who like him even better than Delon Wright. If he can keep playing at this clip all year and help Notre Dame upset some folks, he'll not only be in the conversation for player of the year, but he could sneak up another 10 spots or so in the draft.
April 23 Update: Grant, who was ruled academically ineligible for the second half of the season at Notre Dame, will return to school. He was an intriguing prospect for scouts given his size and feel for the game. His improved jump shot this season also intrigued scouts. He was a bubble first rounder if he stayed in this year's draft. His stock probably doesn't change much with another year at Notre Dame.
Dec 2, 2013 Update: And speaking of Grant, scouts haven't forgotten about his brother, Jerian Grant, at Notre Dame. While Jerami might be the sexier prospect because of his size (6-8, 210 pounds) and age (19), Jerian Grant was brought up by multiple scouts the past few days. He's averaging nearly 20 PPG, is shooting 48 percent from 3-point range and has a 4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio this season. Jerian Grant (6-5, 203) looks well on his way toward hearing his name called in the first round as well, especially if there are teams looking for a big and athletic point guard.
Oct 7, 2013 Update: The slashing athletic combo guard is the son of former Washington Wizard Harvey Grant. He's tough, he gets to the basket and he can defend. If he ever got a jumper, he's a possible late first-round pick.
Chad Ford's Top 100 - 2015
Top 100 Draft Prospects
21 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 20 SF 6-7 211 Arizona Mid-First Round Pick
June 18 Update: While he was able to show off his explosive athletic ability and length, the focus on shooting highlighted his biggest weakness on Thursday night in Santa Monica. Hollis-Jefferson did hit shots. A number of them. But he was matched up with Vaughn, Connaughton and Brown all night, and he just can't shoot it the same way they can.
May 18 Update: Hollis-Jefferson tested as, quite possibly, the best athlete at the combine. He scored a very good 38-inch maximum vertical and ranked in the top two on both lane agility and 3/4 court sprint scores. Combine that with terrific length, a great motor and all the intangible stuff and at the very worst, he looks like the sort of lockdown defender who could shut guys down at three positions on the floor. His shot is broken -- some teams believe it is beyond repair and that's why he's this low. But I heard a growing chorus of teams that said he deserves to be this high, or even higher (just like Willie Cauley-Stein) despite his offensive woes. His defense has the potential to be so special that he'll be worth it.
May 15 Update: Arizona's Rondae Hollis-Jefferson tested extremely well in every category (38-inch maximum vertical plus top two in both lane agility and three-quarter-court spent scores). I think he could end up being the best athlete in the draft.
Apr 29 Update: Hollis-Jefferson is another player who could potentially struggle in workouts. While his athletic skills should measure off the charts, his jump shot is a major work in progress and drill settings won't help him. If he shoots the ball better, he could dramatically help his stock. Or, he could just decide to double-down on what he does best, terrorize everyone else on defense and make a head coach fall in love with him. If I were him, I'd go the second route. I've seen several players rise in the draft just because the head coach can say, "He can help me right away on defense."
Apr 8 Update: Hollis-Jefferson's decision to declare for the draft was an interesting one. On one hand, scouts acknowledge that he's arguably the best wing defender in the draft and a talented athlete who can finish above the rim. But his lack of a jump shot is a major worry, and with so much talent ahead of him on the Big Board, it's been hard for Hollis-Jefferson to get much traction this season. He's in the 18-to-25 range.
Apr 1 Update: Hollis-Jefferson, according to multiple media reports, will enter the 2015 NBA Draft. Hollis-Jefferson is one of the two or three best perimeter defenders in college basketball. Blessed with elite athleticism, a long wingspan and speed, he can guard 1s, 2s, and 3s and even smaller 4s. Offensively, he's great in transition and finishing at the basket. It's his jump shot that is really holding him back from being a lottery pick. Still, he brings just about everything else to the table and should be drafted in the 18 to 25 range.
Mar 31 Update: Hollis-Jefferson had a rough game against Xavier, scoring five points and shooting just 1-for-4 from the field. He was better offensively versus Wisconsin, scoring 17 points and grabbing eight boards, but eventually fouled out and didn't have the same dominating defensive presence he's brought in the past. Hollis-Jefferson's season is now over and it will be interesting to see if he decides to declare for the draft. Scouts love his defense but are very worried about his ability to score in the NBA. Does he return for his junior season and work hard all summer on his jumper, or does he declare now and settle for a pick somewhere in the 17-to-25 range?
Mar 23 Update: Hollis-Jefferson scored 23 points on 7-for-9 shooting against Texas Southern and just 11 points on 3-for-12 shooting against Ohio State. However, the defensive job he did on D'Angelo Russell drew raves from scouts. "He's the best on the ball wing defender in the country," one GM said. "He can guard elite NBA 2s and 3s right now." Hollis-Jefferson's jump shot is clearly a problem, but his defense is so good, it might now matter. He's a shorter version of Willie-Cauley-Stein.
Mar 17 Update: Hollis-Jefferson might be the best wing defender in the draft. He's an elite athlete who can shut down players from four positions. His problem is generating offense. He's an elite finisher at the basket, but his jump shot is broken right now. Until he gets that fixed, he's looking at the second half of the first round if he declares.
Mar 11 Update: Hollis-Jefferson might not be able to shoot, but he continues to hang around in the 20s because he's so valuable defensively, gets points in so many other ways, and is such a tough rebounder and leader. Some scouts aren't in love with him. Others think he can be a Gerald Wallace-type player in the NBA someday.
Feb 11 Update: Hollis-Jefferson remains one of the two or three best perimeter defenders in the country. However, his jump shot continues to be the thing that scares teams away. He's averaging about 20.5 percent from 3 for his career and while his 2-point field-goal percentage is better, it's not great.
Jan 6 Update: Hollis-Jefferson volunteered to come off the bench at the start of the season to give Arizona some scoring punch. He got his first start Sunday against Arizona State and responded with 13 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block and 1 steal in 27 minutes. While his defense has been spectacular at times (Hollis-Jefferson can guard three, maybe four positions), his offense has been inconsistent due in large part to a shaky jump shot. His ability to find more consistent ways to score will largely determine whether he's considered a fringe lottery pick or a defensive specialist more suited to the late first round.
Dec 17 Update: Hollis-Jefferson has taken a back seat to Stanley Johnson. Not only did he give up his starting spot in the lineup, but it's Johnson, not Hollis-Jefferson, who is now getting the most shots. Hollis-Jefferson is a better athlete and more versatile defender than Johnson, but so far he has been unable to shoot the ball as well as Johnson. Scouts are still hoping that jump shot comes, as he really does have the complete physical and mental package teams look for in a wing.
Dec 2 Update: Hollis-Jefferson has so many things going for him. He is long and crazy athletic, has a nose for the ball, and does all the little things to help his team win. He just can't shoot. The discrepancies couldn't be more stark. He's shooting 88 percent at the rim, 31 percent on 2-point jumpers, and 17 percent from behind the arc. Perhaps Hollis-Jefferson can carve out a Gerald Wallace-type career in the NBA, but without a reliable jump shot, Hollis-Jefferson will have a hard time cracking the lottery.
Nov 26 Update: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson was mentioned as a possible late lottery to mid-first round pick last year before deciding to return for his sophomore season. He's coming off the bench for Arizona this year, but his impact has been felt all over the court, especially on the defensive end. Against Kansas State on Tuesday, Hollis-Jefferson completely locked down Marcus Foster in the second half. He's a terrific athlete and versatile. The only issue, and it's a major one, is the lack of a credible jump shot. He's shooting a crazy 94 percent at the rim this year but only 34 percent from everywhere else on the floor. He does enough to get drafted as a defensive stopper, but unless that jumper starts falling it will be tough for him to crack the lottery.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: B+ Hollis-Jefferson is off to a strong start, averaging 14.5 PPG, 6 RPG, 2 SPG and shooting 69 percent from the field. He's given the Wildcats great energy and athleticism off the bench early. However, he's yet to attempt a 3-point shot in Arizona's first two games.
Nov 6 Update: Hollis-Jefferson is in a tough spot. Had he decided to declare for the draft as a freshman, I think he could've been a late lottery pick. Instead, he got picked apart this summer by scouts, and with Robinson playing essentially the same position, there is skepticism that he'll be able to build on his freshman campaign. I wouldn't count him out. While he desperately needs to get a passable jump shot, Hollis-Jefferson brings so much energy and defense to the table that I think he can be one of the best players in college basketball this season.
Oct 8 Update: There's obviously a couple of elite freshman coming to the Pac-12 this season, led by Stanley Johnson of Arizona and Kevon Looney of UCLA. But of the returning players, Hollis-Jefferson is the highest-ranked player on my board. I thought he looked great for Arizona toward the end of his freshman season. He's long, athletic, has good strength, is a terrific defender with a high motor and has a real knack for getting to and finishing at the basket. He's a great intangibles guy, too.
In a lot of ways, he reminds me of a young Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The jump shot is obviously a major concern (he shot 29 percent on 2-point jumpers and 20 percent from 3-point range). With Johnson (ranked No. 6 on my Big Board), he's also facing the possibility of splitting minutes. Those two factors clearly affected his draft stock. But he's got everything else. I think he can be an effective defense and hustle guy in the NBA. Kevin, you clearly aren't as high on him. Is it just the jump shot or is there more that concerns you?
Pelton: For the most part, yeah. That low percentage on 2-point jumpers, the complete lack of 3s and 68.2 percent free throw shooting meant Hollis-Jefferson's efficiency was only average. Kidd-Gilchrist is a pretty good match; only DeMar DeRozan has a higher similarity score to Hollis-Jefferson's freshman season among one-and-done players in my database. However, Kidd-Gilchrist was a half-year younger and slightly more effective, which made him a better prospect statistically. And the jury is very much still out on whether a comparison to Kidd-Gilchrist is a good thing.
Sept. 9 Update: Hollis-Jefferson was terrific for Arizona toward the end of last season. He would've been a potential late-lottery to mid-first round pick had he declared. He didn't exactly help his stock with just a so-so performance at the LeBron camp. He clearly has strong athletic abilities and, right now, is a lockdown defender. But his ability to create his own shot and hit jumpers still are questions marks. With Stanley Johnson heading to Arizona this year, will Hollis-Jefferson end up playing second fiddle again?
July 16 Update: A number of scouts felt Hollis-Jefferson would've been a lock for the first round had he decided to leave Arizona last season. He's another aggressive and athletic small forward who is a jump shot away from dominance. Hollis-Jefferson will face some stiff competition with Stanley Johnson at his position this season. But if he continues to improve, I still think he could hear his name called before Johnson. He's a better athlete. That's a big deal at the next level.
April 15 Update: Hollis-Jefferson will return to Arizona for his junior season. He didn't play a major role for Arizona until Brandon Ashley went down with an injury. Once he got major minutes, he wowed scouts with his ability to use his athleticism to get to the basket and finish, as well as his terrific defensive potential. Had he declared for the draft, he would've gone somewhere between picks 15 and 25. But another year at Arizona should help his stock -- he's a jump shot away from being a top-10 pick.
April 8 Update: It's unclear whether Hollis-Jefferson will really declare for the draft, but his late-season play was so strong that he's moved himself into the mid-to-late first round. He needs a jump shot, but he's got just about everything else. If he waits a year, he could be a lottery pick in 2015.
Apr 2 Update: Hollis-Jefferson also continues to wow scouts. His jump shot may be even shakier than Gordon's, but his athletic plays at both ends of the floor have drawn much praise from scouts. He had several acrobatic finishes against Wisconsin that few guys in the NBA could pull off. And like Gordon, he's a stellar defender who makes an impact beyond the box score. If he declares, which looks unlikely, he'd go somewhere in the teens to early 20s. If he comes back to school and gets working on that jumper, he could be a lottery pick in 2015.
March 25 Update: The two freshmen for Arizona also had some big moments this weekend. Hollis-Jefferson has also been a favorite of scouts despite not putting up big numbers this season. However, he had two breakout games this weekend, scoring 13 points on 5-for-5 shooting from the field in 22 minutes versus Weber State and following it up with a career-high 18 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 blocks versus Gonzaga. Here, for the first time this season, Hollis-Jefferson was doing more than just relying on potential. He was playing at a lottery-pick level.
While most scouts believe he will return to school for his sophomore year, if he does declare for the draft, expect him to go somewhere in the mid-to-late first round. He's a jump shot away from being a true difference-maker on both ends of the floor.
Mar 20 Update: Hollis-Jefferson isn't a big-time scorer, either, but he also brings a package of athleticism, toughness and energy to the table that scouts love in a potential first-round pick.
Feb 11 Update: With Brandon Ashley out for the year, Hollis-Jefferson's minutes have increased, and he's responded with a number of terrific games for the Wildcats. This week, he had 14 points and 10 boards against Oregon followed by 16 points and five rebounds against Oregon State. He's an elite athlete, a tough, athletic defender and plays with a great motor. He's not a great shooter (he's just 1-for-6 from 3 all season), but scouts love the toughness and versatility he brings to the table.
Apr 22 Update: Hollis-Jefferson isn't a particularly polished offensive player, but he's a hound defensively. He can guard multiple positions, rebounds and plays with great athleticism and toughness. Like Young, his jump shot still needs major work, but he clearly showed his value in the Hoop Summit game, playing great defense, scoring 17 points and grabbing six rebounds. He's a sleeper first-rounder.
22 R.J. Hunter 21 SG 6-6 185 Georgia St Mid-First Round Pick
May 18 Update: Hunter looked great in a pre-combine workout I saw him in -- hitting 19-for-25 from NBA 3. His interviews were also strong. He has a great, confident personality. Those who question whether he can shoot are asking the wrong question. He can really, really shoot. The bigger issue is whether he can do anything else. Can he defend? He has the long arms to do so, and his lane agility scores were among the top at the combine which suggest yes. Is he a good enough athlete? He lacks strength and doesn't possess explosive leaping ability (he measured with a 33.5-inch max vert), but it really depends on what you're asking him to do. If it's spot-up duty, he's going to be a stud. If it's create your own shot off the dribble, there's evidence he might struggle. But at this point in the draft teams aren't looking for the next Kobe. They're looking for the next Wesley Matthews and Hunter could be that. The Thunder are a real possibility for him at 14. And while a few teams have him rated as a second-rounder, I'd be surprised if he lasted past the teens or early 20s.
May 14 Update: After shooting 37 and 40 percent, respectively, from 3 (on an average of seven attempts per game) as a freshman and sophomore, Hunter's 3-point percentages plummeted as a junior. He shot just 30.5 percent from 3 this season, leading some scouts to question whether he was as good of a shooter as advertised. The truth is a little bit more convoluted. Hunter, who won Sun Belt Player of the Year in 2014 (over Elfrid Payton), was the target of defenses every single night. He often had two defenders draped on him with every shot he took. It was rare for him to get a clean look inside 30 feet.
"It was tough," Hunter told ESPN.com when asked about the swarming defenses he faced. "I loved it. It forced me to do other things that I wasn't doing. It forced me to make plays for others, and I had to not take shots I would normally take. I had to grow mentally as a player. I had to learn how to do other things when my shot wasn't falling."
It appears to have worked. Hunter more than doubled his assist total (from 1.7 per game as a sophomore to 3.7 as a junior) and improved his free throw rate from 4.9 free throw attempts per game to 6.6. He definitely was a more versatile player. But I don't think his jump shot went anywhere. Hunter shot the ball lights out in the workout I saw, including hitting 19-of-25 from NBA 3-point line in drills. His stroke is silky smooth (albeit with a little bit of a low release) and his range is very deep. With the emphasis that the NBA is putting on shooting these days, he should show great in workouts. But Hunter doesn't want to just be known as a shooter. His hero is Stephen Curry, and like Curry, he's hoping to develop into a point guard as well. His 3.7 assists per game this season, combined with his high basketball IQ and good ball handling skills could make him more of a Klay Thompson or James Harden-type player in the pros. The GMs I spoke to on Tuesday have him ranked between No. 12 and No. 21 on their boards. If he shoots the ball well, he'll end up in the lottery.
Apr 29 Update: Hit shots. Lots of them. That's what Hunter has to do in workouts to recover a draft stock that once sat in the late lottery. He's clearly got the range and a high basketball IQ. Plus, scouts love the length and his ability to disrupt passing lanes. But he needs to be a lights-out shooter. If he does that in workouts, he rises.
Apr 8 Update: Hunter turned around a disastrous shooting season with several memorable games in the NCAA tournament. Yes, his shot struggled to fall all season, but no one who watches him play really questions whether he can shoot. Add in a high basketball IQ, the ability to pass, and solid defense in the passing lanes, and Hunter is a better NBA prospect than he showed this season. Scouts are all over the place on his draft stock; landing from 13 to 25 isn't out of the question.
Mar 30 Update: Hunter has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Hunter's stock blew up last spring after he was named the Sun Belt Player of the Year as a sophomore over Elfrid Payton, an eventual lottery pick in the 2014 NBA draft. The buzz continued over the summer after a strong performance at the LeBron James Skills Camp, where scouts compared him to a young Klay Thompson. Hunter suffered through a major shooting slump this season, which dinged his draft stock some, but his play in the NCAA tournament -- which included a last-second, game-winning shot to upset Baylor -- showed why scouts were high on him in the first place. Virtually every shot he took this season was contested, and that should ease in the NBA. Add great size (6-foot-5), a high basketball IQ, good floor vision and a knack for playing the passing lanes, and Hunter should be a top-20 pick in the draft. His lack of elite athleticism is the only other real knock against him.
Mar 23 Update:Hunter was the new march Madness darling on Thursday after his go ahead 3-point shot from the parking lot with two seconds left helped Georgia State pull off the first big upset of the day. The image of him draining the 3 and his father, Georgia State head coach Ron Hunter, falling off his chair was iconic.
Hunter struggled all day against Baylor -- until the last three minutes of the game when he scored 12 straight points against the Bears for the improbable comeback. He ended the game with 16 points, three rebounds and three steals. Those two 3s he hit at the end of the game were the only ones he hit. He scored 20 points against Xavier on Saturday, going 6-for-15 from the field and 3-for-8 from behind the arc.
However, the five assists showed off a talented ball handler who can see the floor. Overall, this tournament probably helped his stock. His shooting percentages have been awful all year, but at least scouts got to see why in the tournament. Hunter can shoot the basketball, but the degree of difficulty behind many of the shots he takes are extraordinary. He'll get much cleaner looks in the NBA. Sources say it's very likely he'll declare for the draft before the April 16 deadline. He should go in the Nos. 13 to 20 range.
Mar 19 Update: Hunter has been in my Top 20 since this summer and was as high as No. 12 on my Big Board before the season began after a stellar sophomore campaign and a coming-out party at the LeBron James camp. Playing against some of the best college players in the country, many scouts thought he was one of the top three or four prospects there, and were especially impressed with his shooting stroke and his ability to see the floor.
He has fallen -- a little -- on my Big Board thanks to a horrendous shooting slump this season. He's shooting just 30 percent on 3s. It's troubling, but given his shooting performance his first two seasons, scouts attribute most of the problems to poor shot selection and to defenses focusing on Hunter. He has, however, improved in other aspects of the game -- namely improved assist and steal rates.
Obviously, a big game against Baylor would help restore whatever confidence has been lost this season. I think most teams still see him as a late lottery pick to somewhere in the middle of the first round. He reminds many of a young Klay Thompson. Do the numbers still back that up, Kevin? At the start of the season, he was No. 1 on your statistical board.
Pelton: Yep. He's not at the top anymore because several freshmen have jumped past him, but Hunter's projection really hasn't dropped. As poorly as Hunter has shot, his improvement in the other areas you mentioned has offset it.
I watched Hunter in Sunday's Sun Belt championship, which was a reminder of the difficulty of scouting a player in a single game. Georgia State's offense didn't really produce any clean looks for him -- the 3-point percentage dip made sense after watching how Hunter is defended -- and he wasn't a major factor. Still, there were flashes of Hunter's ability to create off the dribble, which should serve him well in combination with his size and shooting ability.
The Thompson comparison makes complete sense to me, having watched Thompson throughout his college career. My biggest concern is how reliable Hunter's gaudy block and steal rates are since he's playing primarily in a zone defense.
Mar 17 Update: Hunter is one of the more intriguing prospects in this region. After a stellar sophomore season and a terrific summer, many scouts had him as a lottery pick in the mold of a young Klay Thompson. His jump shot really failed him this season, as defenses keyed in on Hunter and he took more and more difficult shots. However, he made up for it in other ways. He's handed out more assists, picked up more steals and still found a way to increase his scoring average to 20 points per game. Several teams still believe he has lottery talent. Others have him in the late first round. We've sort of split the difference keeping him in the late teens. A big tournament game against Baylor in the first round could really help him.
Mar 11 Update: Hunter's 3-point shot has been a disaster this season. After looking like he could be the second coming of Klay Thompson, he's shooting just 31 percent from deep (71-for-233). But that doesn't tell the whole story.He's averaging nearly 20 PPG along with a career-high 3.8 APG and 2.0 SPG. He's also gotten to the line 50 more times this season. Most of the scouts (and analytics people) I spoke with are still very high on him. "He's trying to do too much at Georgia State," one scout said. "Put him on the right team and I think he could be a dangerous player in the NBA."
Feb 11 Update:My analytics friends, including ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton, still love Hunter. But his jump shot has been shaky to say the least this season. He's shooting just 31 percent from 3 (down from 39 percent and 36 percent the past two seasons, respectively) and he's shooting less than 40 percent from the field this season. Even his free throw percentage has plummeted from 88 percent to 77 percent. Defenses have clearly keyed in on him, but scouts who still have him high on their boards think he'll be much better when he gets to the pros and he will have more space to work with.
Jan 6 Update: After the first 12 players are off the board, scouts report a pretty distinct drop in talent. Hunter made a name for himself with a terrific summer performance, but his jump shot has not been falling of late, which is a major disappointment in a draft that desperately needs shooters. In December and early January, Hunter made just 11 of the 57 3-pointers he took. That amounts to an awful 19 percent. Scouts don't doubt he can shoot the basketball. It's his ability to get good shots that's the question right now. Scouts expect Hunter, who last season shot 39.5 percent from 3, to revert to the mean at some point.
Dec 17 Update: Hunter has played only one game since our last Big Board update. He scored 26 points and went 4-for-13 from beyond the arc in a win against a scrappy Green Bay team. The draft is very thin on shooters right now, which is inflating Hunter's value. Several teams in the mid- to late lottery need perimeter shooting, which should put him in a very solid position come draft night.
Dec 2 Update: Hunter continues to build his case as the best mid-major prospect in the country. His scoring output has continued to increase -- even as his 3-point shooting has fallen off slightly. He's also shown an adept handle and has been racking up the steals. A number of scouts think those Klay Thompson comparisons are dead-on. Thompson averaged 21.6 PPG and 3.7 APG, while attempting and making roughly the same number of 3-pointers, his junior season at Washington State.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: A- Hunter was the highest riser on our draft board over the summer and he blew the doors off in his opening game, scoring 24 points, dishing out eight assists and shooting 5-for-9 from 3-point range. But take some of that incredible performance with a grain of salt, as he did it in a blowout of Tennessee Temple. He faced much better competition on Monday versus Iowa State and scored 21 points, hit four 3s and dished out another four assists. Iowa State gave him much harder looks, which led to an 8-for-20 shooting performance, but overall, Hunter still looked the part of an NBA lottery pick.
Nov 6 Update: Hunter quickly became everyone's sleeper this summer after a terrific performance at the LeBron James camp. He's not a sleeper anymore. Kevin Pelton has him ranked No. 1 on his board of returning college players, and virtually every GM I spoke with now has him ranked as a potential lottery candidate. He could be this year's Nik Stauskas.
Oct 2 Update: Again, this doesn't include incoming freshmen. Odds are Hunter won't end up the best-ranked player in the 2015 NBA draft. But he won't drop far. Hunter played in the same conference as 2014 lottery pick Elfrid Payton, and Hunter -- not Payton -- was the Sun Belt Player of the Year. That's how good he was as a sophomore. Hunter is a 40 percent 3-point shooter who can create his own shot. And unlike many elite outside shooters, Hunter is a good athlete with terrific defensive numbers. At 6-foot-5, he was in the Sun Belt's top 10 in block rate. I see Hunter as something like a more efficient Klay Thompson at the NBA level. So why shouldn't he go in the lottery?
Ford: I think you're onto something with Hunter. A number of scouts walked away from scouting Payton last year intrigued by Hunter. That interest jumped to a different level this summer when Hunter had a coming out party at the LeBron camp. Playing against the best college players in the country, Hunter was widely regarded by scouts as one of the three or four best players there. My experience with scouts is that they are always, initially, skeptical of smaller school players. Payton, Damian Lillard and even Stephen Curry had to perform at a high level for three full seasons before scouts finally bought into them as lottery picks. I'd trust the numbers here. If he has a big year, I think you're right, and he'll be a top 10 pick.
Sept. 9 Update: Hunter had his coming-out party in the LeBron camp this summer. Every team is looking for elite shooters, and Hunter can shoot it. If you're looking for another small-school sleeper this year, Hunter appears to be the guy.
July 16 Update: Hunter is a silky-smooth shooting guard who really knows how to put the ball in the basket. He's an excellent shooter with deep range and is especially lethal when he gets his feet set. He's not an elite athlete and needs to add strength. However, his play at LeBron James' camp this summer convinced a lot of scouts that he could be a mid- to late-first-round pick this year.
April 14 Update Hunter had a terrific sophomore season and got a lot of looks from NBA scouts who were scouting Elfrid Payton in the Sun Belt. He's a terrific shooter and has a really good feel for the game. His lack of elite athleticism limits his ceiling a bit, but he should get a lot of looks in the mid-to-late first round in 2015.
23 Tyus Jones 19 PG 6-2 185 Duke Mid-First Round Pick
May 18 Update: Jones walks away with the award for most impressive interviews at the combine. Every team that spoke with him came away with a crush. "He's such a confident leader," one GM said. "He's all about winning and accountability. It's hard not to love guys like that. Especially when they see the floor as well as he does and win like he does." His measurements turned out to be OK -- 6 feet, 0.75 inches in socks (so roughly 6-2 in shoes) with a 6-5 wingspan -- nothing to get excited about, but not detrimental either (he's roughly the same size as Mike Conley). But his athletic testing numbers are the things that gave pause. His 32.5-inch vertical jump and his subpar 3/4 sprint and lane agility drill numbers weren't very good. In fact, Jones' lane agility score of 11.89 was the fourth worst in the entire combine. None of this, by the way, is very new. Scouts would've predicted all of it. The Rockets, I'm told, are really big fans and could grab him at 18.
Apr 29 Update: The workout process could be a tough one for Jones. All the things he does that are special show up much better in a 5-on-5 setting than in a workout. He's not an elite athlete, nor does he have elite size or shooting. However, he sees the game as well as anyone in the draft. He runs the risk of sliding a bit in workouts after coming off an enormously positive performance in the NCAA tournament (and Final Four in particular).
Apr 15 Update: Jones has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Jones may very well be the best pure point guard in the draft. Blessed with remarkable floor vision, steadiness and leadership, he's every coach's dream. The Final Four's most outstanding player isn't just a pass-first guy -- he can get to the basket and showed he was a threat from beyond the arc as well. His lack of elite size and athleticism for his position is the only thing keeping him from being a top-five pick. Look for him to go in the 17-to 25-range.
Apr 8 Update: To be sure, Jones was having a solid tournament before the national championship game. But he simply took over in the second half against Wisconsin and carried Duke on his shoulders to the title. It certainly wasn't the first time we've seen it from him this season. If Jones was a few inches taller, or a faster, more explosive athlete, he'd be a top-five pick. His floor vision, basketball IQ and elite sense of when to pass versus when to score are special. In six games in the tournament he committed just eight turnovers, including only one in 37 minutes during the title game. The challenge for Jones is that he isn't two inches taller and he isn't a great athlete, and the combination of the two puts a serious ceiling on his draft stock. Still, the analytics crew loves him (he's in the top five of Kevin Pelton's statistical big board) and so do old-school scouts, who rarely find a freshman who sees the game as well as Jones does. If he declares, he'll go in the 17-to-25 range.
Mar 31 Update: Jones has been solid in the tournament and was especially effective against Gonzaga on Sunday, scoring 15 points, making six assists and committing zero turnovers. His lack of elite size and athleticism limits his ceiling, but few point guards possess his basketball IQ or steadiness.
Mar 23 Update: Jones continues to make the argument that he's the best "pure" point guard in the draft. While he doesn't put up dominant offensive numbers or flashy passes, he's had 13 assists and just three turnovers so far in the tournament. Scouts continue to be pretty divided on his NBA potential. His basketball IQ and court vision clearly are there, but does he have the size and athleticism to be compete with the NBA's current crop of elite point guards? He remains in the 15 to 25 range in the draft.
Mar 19 Update: Jones is polarizing. He's a favorite of scouts who use analytics. His high basketball IQ, elite assist-to-turnover ratio and high steal rate make him appealing. But he lacks elite size and athleticism to dominate at the next level. His range is pretty wide, from No. 15 to 25.
Mar 11 Update: Jones continues to draw a split decision from NBA scouts. The analytics folks love him while the old-school scouts look at his lack of size and elite athletic ability and wonder what the deal is. He can really see the floor and is shooting the ball well this season, but the one thing that stands out about all the other point guards ranked above him is their size and/or athletic ability. Jones might see the floor better than any of them, but he doesn't have those two intangibles that scouts really look for.
Feb 18 Update: Question: Kevin had Duke PG Tyus Jones ranked No. 2 in his latest Statistical Big Board while Chad had him ranked No. 24 on the Big Board. That's a 22-pick disparity. What gives?
Chad Ford: The scouts and GMs I've spoken with just aren't that high on him. He's having a great season. He might be the best pure point guard in college basketball right now. But of all the GMs and scouts I surveyed, none of them have Jones ranked in the lottery, let alone No. 2. Some weren't sold he was a first-rounder.
I spoke with a few of them over the weekend after Kevin's Big Board came out to see if their own internal metrics were saying similar things. Some were and some weren't. But in the front offices where scouting trumps analytics, Jones just isn't topping the charts -- at least not yet.
Every time I watch him play, I'm impressed and I respect Kevin and his statistical Big Board, but there's a pretty big gap between his perceived draft value from scouts and what Kevin's numbers are saying. It reminds me a bit of UCLA's Jordan Adams last year.
Kevin Pelton: It's not unusual for a player who rates as well by my numbers as Jones to be considered a late first- or even second-round pick. Typically, it's been more common with big men. Adams (seventh in projected WARP last season) and Jones are a bit of the exception in that regard. But in 2012, Jared Sullinger (taken 22nd) was rated second; in 2011, Kenneth Faried topped the WARP projections and went 22nd; and 2009 leader DeJuan Blair went in the second round. Those players were all undersized big men, and Jones' physical limitations are different.
Question: Can you provide more detail on why Jones is or isn't ranked so highly on your boards?
Ford: Scouts and GMs are typically looking for three things when searching for top-shelf NBA prospects: (1) elite size or length for position; (2) elite athletic ability for position; and (3) at least one elite skill that translates in the NBA.
Jones' lack of elite size, athleticism and an NBA body are clearly hurting him. He has the game of an NBA player, but not necessarily the physical attributes of one.
Jones is undersized for his position compared to other NBA point guards and doesn't possess an NBA body. He measures a little under 6-foot-1 in socks and has just a 6-3 wingspan. He also lacks great strength for a point guard and is just an average athlete. While he's quick and shows the ability to change speeds, he's not an explosive athlete.
What he does have is an elite skill set. He sees the floor as well as any point guard in the draft. He rarely turns the ball over and is a leader on the court. He's especially impressive knowing when he needs to take over and score and when it's time to be a distributor.
The question, in the minds of so many scouts, is whether the elite point guard skill set he has overcomes those other two weaknesses.
Are the numbers seeing things about Jones that scouts aren't seeing, Kevin? I know, for example, he's shot the ball much better than the scouting report said he would this season. Or, do they just value elite point guard skills highly?
Pelton: Though the translation to the NBA takes a lot of air out of Jones' 40.3 percent 3-point shooting, the combination of that and his accurate free throw shooting (83.7 percent) makes shooting a strength for Jones. Another point in his favor is that he's quietly been very good at getting to the free throw line. Per field goal attempt, his free throw rate ranks fifth in the ACC -- ahead of teammate Jahlil Okafor and more athletic point guards such as Notre Dame's Jerian Grant and North Carolina State's Anthony Barber.
Question: Who are the comps for Jones? And who are the other top point guards in the draft?
Ford: I've heard a lot of scouts compare him to the Suns' Tyler Ennis who, if I remember correctly, also ranked as a top-10 player on Kevin's board last year. Ennis didn't have great size for his position either, nor was he an elite athlete, but he showed similar poise as a freshman point guard. He ended up sliding a bit in the draft when working out against more athletic point guards and really hasn't had a chance to show his worth for Phoenix this season.
The one thing about the Ennis comp is that Ennis was a little bigger and a little more athletic than Jones. However, I'd say Jones is a better playmaker than Ennis and, up to this point, has shot it better.
As for other point guards there aren't a lot of elite prospects in this draft. I have Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell ranked higher (both in the top five) and I think both are better prospects. After that, it's a pretty big scrum among Grant, Delon Wright and Terry Rozier in the same range as Jones.
Pelton: The Ennis-Jones comparison definitely makes sense, though for the reasons you mention, the gap between his statistical projections and the scouting consensus was never quite as large for Ennis. And lo and behold, SCHOENE says Ennis is the only player of a similarity score of better than 95 to Jones at the same age.
Besides Ennis, Jones is a fairly unique prospect. The other two players with similarity scores better than 90 at the same age are UCLA point guards: Jrue Holiday and Jordan Farmar. Darren Collison also scores as highly similar, but that was as a senior. It's interesting that Jones gets compared to such good athletes. I think his free throw rate might be a factor. Typically, smaller point guards who get to the free throw line so often are jets. Some examples: Mike Conley, Ty Lawson, Chris Paul, Jeff Teague, Isaiah Thomas and Kemba Walker.
Feb 11 Update: Jones is another guy who analytically tests out wonderfully. He passes the eye test, too. His poise as a freshman point guard is truly remarkable and he might be the best "true" point guard in the nation (he has an impressive 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio). But scouts worry he's too small (6-foot-1, 190 pounds), not athletic enough and not a good enough shooter (though he's shooting nearly 40 percent from 3 this season) to ever be a star. He has become an "eye of the beholder" guy.
Jan 6 Update: You can make the argument that Jones has been the best "pure" point guard in the country this season. Sporting a terrific 3.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, the freshman has been highly efficient running Duke's offense. He's having a crazy good season. He's also come up big in the scoring department on nights when Duke needs him, and has been content to let others do the work on nights when they don't -- a hallmark of a terrific floor leader. It's really Jones' lack of ideal size or explosive athleticism that holds him this far down the board.
Dec 17 Update: Jones is being overshadowed by Okafor and Winslow, but he's having an equally good freshman season. His numbers don't scream superstar, but with the exception of a poor game against Elon, he's been phenomenal at distributing the ball and limiting turnovers. His 22-point, 6-rebound, 4-assist, 1-turnover performance in a big win against Wisconsin was remarkable for a freshman. His lack of elite size or athleticism limits his ceiling, but I'm not sure there's a better pure point guard in America than Jones.
Dec 2 Update: Jones is sporting an incredible 6-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in his first seven games at Duke. He is, by far, the best pass-first point guard prospect in the draft. His issue is shooting the ball from deep. While he's shooting a respectable 46 percent on 2-point jumpers, his 3-point percentage has fallen to 32 percent. Since 54 percent of all his shots are 3s, that number needs to go up significantly.
Nov 19 Update: vs. MSU: 17 points, 4 assists, 0 turnovers, 4-for-5 shooting in 31 minutes. Jones scored zero points in the first half. He was so quiet you could hardly notice him on the court. But he came alive in the second half, scoring 17 points and really helping Duke finish off the game. His status as a draft prospect is still very much in flux. He's not a great athlete and doesn't have great size for his position, but his strong play down the stretch for Duke highlighted what a skilled player he is.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: B+ Jones is the third highest-rated point guard on our Big Board and he's made a strong case so far that he might need to be a few spots higher. He's averaging 10.5 PPG and 6 APG in Duke's first two games and has committed only three turnovers in that span. That 4-1 assist-to-turnover ratio is exactly what we expect from Jones. He's the "purest" point guard on our Big Board.
Nov 14 Update: Jones was the second-highest-rated point guard in his recruiting class, but he's a completely different player than Mudiay. Mudiay relies on athleticism, power and size to do his damage. Jones has a more cerebral game. He's a pure point guard who sees the floor exceptionally well, and knows when to pass it and when to take the shot himself. If he was an elite athlete, he'd be much higher on our board. Still, if he has a big season at Duke -- and there are signs from Duke practices that he might -- he should be able to get higher than where he's currently slotted.
Sept. 9 Update: Jones is the third point guard off the board and he's the first pure point guard -- a pass-first, high basketball IQ guy who shows a great balance between passing and scoring. He averaged 8.2 PPG and 6.5 APG (a team high) for Team USA's Under-18 team this summer. His lack of elite size and athleticism hurt his draft stock, and he'll have to share court time with senior Quinn Cook, but Jones is a solid prospect at the next level.
July 16 Update: This draft isn't nearly as stocked at point guard as 2014's was. At 17, Jones is the second-ranked point guard on our board. He's a true point guard -- a pass-first, high basketball IQ guy who shows great balance between passing and scoring. But he's not an elite athlete, which drops his ranking some. Still, if Tyler Ennis can go 18th in last year's draft, Jones easily could find himself picked in the middle of the first round.
April 15 Update: Jones is the best pure point guard in this class and is the consummate floor general. He is a pass-first guard who has terrific basketball IQ, plays angles well and almost always makes the right pass. If he were a little bigger or a better athlete, he'd be much higher on our board, but the lack of size and elite quickness and explosion limit his upside a bit. Jones ended Saturday's game at the Nike Hoop Summit with 13 points and six assists and made a number of key plays late for the USA team. He's going to be one of the best point guards in the country next year coming out of the gate, but like Winslow, it's unclear what type of NBA player he'll be. He's probably a first-rounder, but is he a lottery pick? Most of the scouts I spoke with weren't sold on that.
24 Delon Wright 23 PG 6-6 181 Utah Mid-First Round Pick
June 18 Update: Wright is another wild card. For all the talk about him being a senior and lacking upside, there are several teams that want to be playoff contenders and seem to like him a lot.
May 18 Update: Wright is the third senior on our Big Board and the one who draws pretty varied opinions depending on whom you speak with. His poise and size for position are major positives. Teams love his steady decision-making as well. But he's not a great shooter and his athletic testing at the combine (31-inch max vertical and an 11.20-second lateral agility score) left a lot to be desired as well. "He's going to be a nice backup in our league," one GM said. "And as long as your expectations are set, he could be a really nice piece in the 20s."
Apr 29 Update: Wright can't get any younger, so he has to go into workouts with the mindset that he's going to help a head coach get comfortable with the fact that, as a backup point guard, he has more maturity, makes fewer mistakes and can buy into a system on both ends of the floor. I think Wright's capable of doing that and, especially if some of the analytics folks have a say, has a chance to still rise.
Apr 8 Update: Mostly because of his age (he'll be 23 on April 26), Wright is struggling to keep up with younger point guards on the board. But make no mistake, there are several scouts and GMs who really love him, and he tests out analytically much higher than this ranking. At the moment he's stuck in that 20-to-35 range along with several others.
Mar 31 Update: Wright again struggled offensively, shooting just 4-for-13 from the field. He did have six assists, just two turnovers and three steals, but he didn't help himself the past couple of weeks and might have even hurt his stock a little. As a senior, scouts expected a steadier presence than what Wright delivered the past three games.
Mar 23 Update: Wright struggled shooting in both games, going 4-for-14 from the field and had six turnovers against SF Austin. Averaging more turnovers than assists in the tournament is not helping Wright's draft stock at the moment. He's a senior, scouts expect more. He's needs a big game against Duke or risks perhaps falling out of the first round.
Mar 19 Update: Wright is one of the best players in the country and is an obvious fit in the NBA. His size, athleticism and floor-management skills should make him a lock for the first round. He has shot the ball much better this season, especially lately, has a terrific 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and is a ball hawk on the defensive end. The only thing going against Wright is his age. He turns 23 before the draft and that always scares teams a bit. With that said, he's right in the mix with Jerian Grant, Kris Dunn and Terry Rozier for the next point guard off the board after Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell. He's in the No. 15 to 25 range.
Mar 11 Update: Wright is another senior who is drawing serious accolades this season despite the fact that he (arguably) was better as a junior. Wright averaged more points, rebounds, blocks, steals and shot a higher percentage from everywhere but the 3-point line last season.
Feb 11 Update: Wright is having a season at Utah that's pretty similar to his junior year. He is shooting the ball better and has improved his assist-to-turnover ratio, but recently his game hasn't stood out the way it did earlier in the season. So his stock remains hovering somewhere in the 20s to mid-30s.
Jan 6 Update: Wright continues to play like one of the top point guards in the country. However, he's putting up virtually identical numbers to the ones he posted last season. The only real difference is that his rebounding is slightly down and his 3-point shooting is slightly up. His performance against Kansas a few weeks ago got a lot of scouts on his bandwagon. Utah hasn't been challenged much since, and Wright has cruised with two 10-assist games against South Dakota State and USC. A big season in Pac-12 play should guarantee him a spot in the mid- to late first round.
Dec 17 Update: After a strong junior season, a number of NBA scouts believed that Wright could make the transition to the NBA. Others were on the fence. Those fence-sitters are getting off in a hurry. Wright has been terrific once again for the Utes and impressed scouts with strong performances against Wichita State, BYU and Kansas. He absolutely carved up Kansas in the second half on Saturday and looks the part of a legit NBA prospect. He has size and speed, and he can play either the 1 or the 2. If he can just get that 3-point shot to fall (he's 1-for-9 in his past three games) he could be the complete package. With so few point guard prospects on the board this season, Wright could continue to rise.
Dec 2 Update: Wright is off to a terrific start to his senior season. He's posting the third-highest PER on our Big Board at 37.04, but the key for him is a dramatic improvement in his 3-point shooting (up from 22 percent last season to 55 percent) and a drop from 2.5 turnovers per game to 1.5. With the draft devoid of legit point guard prospects, Wright could see his stock steadily rise all season if he can keep playing at this level.
Nov 14 Update: Wright would likely be ranked 10 to 15 spots higher on our board if he was two years younger. He'll turn 23 before the draft, and scouts and analytics gurus alike always temper expectations when you have late bloomers performing well as they get older. Still, there's a lot to like about Wright. He has great size (6-foot-5) for his position, can see the floor and get to the line. He's not a great 3-point shooter, but there's lots of potential here.
Oct 8 Update: Wright, the younger brother of Portland forward Dorell Wright, was a revelation in his first year in Salt Lake City as a junior college transfer. Wright's decision to return for his senior season is the biggest reason Utah is ranked in Insider's preseason top 25. Wright set himself apart with versatility. A 6-foot-5 point guard, he led the Utes in scoring, assists, steals and blocks and was second in rebounding. He also made a ridiculous 63 percent of his 2-point attempts. As a result, Wright ranked fifth nationally in Win Shares, per Sports-Reference.com. Wright's age (he'll be 23 by the draft) limits his upside, but few players are more ready to contribute immediately.
Ford: I thought Wright was a really intriguing prospect and was a bit surprised he didn't try to make the leap to the NBA last year while scouts felt he still had some upside. His age becomes a significant obstacle now for him going as high as his talent suggests. I think there are also major concerns about his 3-point shooting (he shot just 22 percent from long distance) and his overall lack of strength (he's 6-5 and weighs just 178 pounds). But NBA guys love big, versatile point guards (and this draft doesn't have many of those), and they love players with basketball pedigrees, so I still think Wright, with a big season at Utah, has a chance to go somewhere in the teens. But I wouldn't be shocked if he slid into the early second round, either.
Sept 12 Update: You can make the argument that Wright is the best point guard in college basketball this season. The key factor hurting Delon is his age. He'll turn 23 by the time he enters the draft -- a virtual old man by NBA standards. Few players who dominate so late in their careers turn out to be NBA studs. It happens (see: Damian Lillard) but scouts tend to be wary. He's going to need a huge senior season at Utah (a la Lillard) to convince them that they're wrong.
March 24 Update: Wright is intriguing to NBA scouts because of his size. At 6-foot-5, he has great size for his position and is a true point guard. He really needs to continue to work on his jump shot to get a shot at the first round in 2015.
25 Justin Anderson 21 SF 6-6 231 Virginia Late First Round Pick
June 18 Update: Anderson has been impressive both in workouts and interviews and after a lot of hand wringing, more teams seem to be convinced that his hot shooting this season at Virginia wasn't a fluke.
May 18 Update: Anderson nailed the interview portion of the combine. "He's really an exceptional guy," one GM said. "I thought he was one of the most impressive people I interviewed." However, his shooting woes that began after he returned from injury at the ACC tournament continued when he shot 9-for-25 in the NBA 3-point drills. "I think he's going to be closer to the Anderson we saw as a sophomore than the one we saw as a junior," when it comes to NBA 3-point shooting, the GM added.
Apr 29 Update: Anderson has an NBA body and athleticism. But was his 3-point shooting this season a fluke? Scouts are going to be studying his shot charts closely to see if he can hit them at the same clip he did as a junior.
Apr 13 Update: Anderson has declared for the 2016 NBA Draft. Anderson has the athleticism to be a very good NBA wing. The question is whether he has the jump shot. Anderson shot the lights out from three for most of his junior year before an injury slowed him down. The question is: was that hot shooting an anomaly or did he just dramatically improve after shooting a much lower percentage as a freshman or sophomore? His shooting in workouts will likely determine his stock. He should go in the 20 to 35 range.
Mar 23 Update: Anderson was the best 3-point shooter in college basketball before injuring his hand. In the four games since he's been back, he's shot 1-for-9 from 3 and clearly isn't himself. It will be interesting to see how scouts react to his shooting slump if he declares. Many believed his high shooting percentages were really fluky and he's was bound to come back down to Earth. For those that think he's a lights-out shooter, he's a mid- to late-first round pick. For those that think he was fluky, he's a second rounder at best.
Mar 18 Update: Anderson, before he injured his hand, was widely regarded as a mid- to late-first-round talent. He's got an NBA body, elite athleticism and this season dramatically improved his 3-point shooting (48 percent). He hasn't been himself since returning two games ago (he's gone 0-for-6 from the field) and Virginia fans are hoping that his 3-point shot returns to form.
Feb 11 Update: Anderson fractured his finger in a game versus Louisville on Saturday; he had surgery Monday and is expected to miss four to six weeks. That means he's out for the rest of the regular season, and possibly the postseason as well. That's unfortunate for Anderson, who played so well for Virginia before hitting a bit of an inevitable shooting slump the past four games (4-for-14 from 3). If he declares for the draft, he should be healthy enough to fully compete in workouts in May and June.
Jan 6 Update: Someone tell Anderson that he's supposed to regress to the mean! He shot 30 percent from 3-point range as a freshman and 29 percent as a sophomore, but is hitting a crazy 59 percent of his 3s this season. He's 30-for-51 from beyond the arc and shows no signs of cooling off. Add in that he's a terrific athlete, has an NBA body and length and can be a lockdown defender, and he could be the real sleeper of this draft if he can keep knocking down shots at this rate.
Dec 17 Update: Kevin Pelton and I broke down Anderson's game on Friday. He could be this year's K.J. McDaniels. He already has a NBA body, is a terrific athlete, can defend multiple positions and is having a breakout year offensively. If he can keep shooting anywhere near the 59 percent he's shooting from 3 already this season, NBA teams will come running.
Dec 12 Update: After two seasons of being essentially a prospect based solely on athleticism, Anderson is having a breakout season as a junior. He obviously has the physical tools. He's long (6-11 wingspan), has an explosive vertical leap, has a strong, NBA-ready body and looks as if he has the potential to be someone who could guard both wing positions.
I've also been impressed with his offensive improvement this season. After shooting 30 and 29 percent from 3-point range as a freshman and sophomore, respectively, he has climbed to 59 percent this season. He's shooting nearly four 3-pointers a game (he's 20-for-34 on the season), so it's not as if he's only shooting it once in a while. Obviously he'll cool down somewhat, but his improvement in that area seems real and sustainable. He's also shooting a decent 39 percent on his 2-point jumpers. Combine his athleticism and body with that sort of offensive efficiency and Anderson looks like a legit first-round prospect. Maybe he's this year's K.J. McDaniels. What do the numbers say about Anderson?
Pelton: Anderson definitely is intriguing. Even though his 2014-15 season doesn't have much weight in his projection yet, Anderson still grades out as a second-round pick in large part because of his shot-blocking from the wing. He's blocking fewer shots so far this season, so Anderson can help compensate for his inevitable regression beyond the arc by swatting more shots to further the McDaniels comparisons.
Aug. 1 Update: Anderson has all the physical tools NBA scouts love, but his skill level hasn't caught up with his physical potential. If he can start hitting jumpers at a higher rate, he's a very intriguing prospect.
26 Montrezl Harrell 21 PF 6-8 253 Louisville Late First Round Pick
June 18 Update: After having some of the steadiest draft stock of any player on our Big Board for the last two seasons, Harrell has struggled to get traction the past few months as teams have focused on his lack of elite size and inconsistency at Louisville. "If you're going to be a little guy playing the 4," one GM said, "you better play your *** off every possession." Harrell did at times, but now in workouts he's learning that has to come every day.
May 18 Update: Harrell showed up with some freaky measurements at the combine. He stands just 6-foot-7 in socks. But he has an incredible 7-4.25 wingspan. That plus-9.25 inches between his height and wingspan are the biggest in the combine and give teams hope that he might be able to play some 5. "He has the game of a center," one NBA GM said. "But you write him off because of his size. But when you factor in his 9-1 standing reach he's on par with Kaminsky. And you know he has the strength and engine to compete in the middle. I think he could surprise some people and be a Ben Wallace-type big in our league."
Apr 29 Update: Harrell's another guy who could be hurt a bit by the workout process. He has strength, athleticism and a great motor, but his skill set is still fairly raw. If he measures better than expected or shows more refinement with his face-up game, he could still rise.
Apr 8 Update: Harrell, after staying in the 12-to-20 range for the past two seasons, has slowly started to slide in the past few weeks. He has done nothing wrong. In fact, he's gotten better every season, has added to his offensive game and brings explosive athleticism and toughness to the table. But with the rise of several young point guards into the top 30, he has struggled to stand out and maintain his draft status. I think 17 to 25 is his draft range.
Mar 31 Update: Harrell was terrific against North Carolina State, scoring 24 points, grabbing seven rebounds and shooting 9-for-12 from the field. When he's filled with energy and passion, he's a handful on both ends of the court. He got off to a great start against Michigan State, going 6-for-7 from the field and leading Louisville to an eight-point first-half lead. But he fell apart in the second half, going 0-for-5 from the field while looking like he was out of gas. It wasn't the way Harrell wanted to end his career or the last impression he wanted to leave for NBA scouts. His stock has taken some minor hits in recent weeks. After looking like a lock to land somewhere in the teens, he's now slipped into the 20s on our Big Board. Of course, that positioning depends on whether every underclassman decides to declare for the draft.
Mar 30 Update: Harrell will declare for the 2015 NBA Draft. Harrell has been consistently ranked in the late teens to early 20s since his freshman year. Despite his steady improvement over the three years, his lack of elite size for his position and a somewhat limited offensive game limit his upside somewhat. What he does bring however is great length, a NBA body, explosive athleticism and a terrific motor. His offensive game has improved over the years and includes an emerging mid range game. He?s not likely to be a NBA all-star, but he could be an important rotation player on a good team. Look for him to go in the 15 to 25 range.
Mar 23 Update: Harrell wasn't dominant in either game. He (understandably) struggled finishing around the rim against 7-foot-6 Mamadou N'Diaye on Friday and Northern Iowa gave him problems at times too. The toughness and athleticism are always there, but the focus, unfortunately, isn't. He's still a likely mid-first round pick, but he hasn't helped himself much lately.
Mar 18 Update: Harrell has been one of the most consistent performers on our Big Board. He's been ranked between Nos. 14 and 20 for the past three years straight. What he brings to the table is elite athleticism, strength and a strong motor. His offensive game has improved over the years, but his penchant for trying to shoot the 3 this season is misplaced. Teams that draft him want a junkyard dog, a player who provides raw power and energy in the paint. Harrell is totally equipped to do that and should go in the mid-first round on draft night.
Mar 11 Update: I'm not sure there's much to write about Harrell other than to say that when he's focused, he's a beast attacking the rim and on the boards. What he lacks in size and shot selection (quit with the 3s, Montrezl), he makes up for in length, explosive athletic ability and toughness. He's been so steady over the years, bouncing between Nos. 12 to 20 on our Big Board, that it's easy to take him for granted.
Feb 11 Update: Other than an annoying penchant for shooting 3-pointers this season (he's 7-for-33 from beyond the arc for 22 percent), Harrell is essentially the same guy he was last season. He's a beast on the boards, tries to finish everything with a dunk and plays with great energy. His lack of elite size hurts his ceiling, but as an energy guy off the bench, he should have a long career in the NBA.
Jan 28 Update: As I've said many times, Harrell might be one of the most consistent players to appear on our Board for some time. The past couple of years he's essentially hung around the middle of the Big Board in the 10 to 20 range. His lack of elite size keeps him from climbing too high, but his athleticism, length and motor keep him from falling too low. Whoever drafts Harrell may not be getting a star, but his new team will be getting the type of blue-collar power forward whom fans and coaches love.
Jan 6 Update: Montrezl just keeps doing what Montrezl does. He might be the most consistent player on our board. Yes, Kentucky recently held him to his first single-digit scoring game of the season, but the Wildcats tend to do that to everyone. Harrell fought hard against Kentucky and scouts love that. He had one of his best performances of the season on Sunday against Wake Forest, posting 25 points and 13 rebounds on 9-of-14 shooting. He even went 2-for-3 from beyond the arc. Harrell is still trying to show that the 3-point shot is part of his arsenal; however, he's just 6-for-24 on 3s this season.
Dec 17 Update: Harrell continues to beast it up for Louisville. He and Looney are the only two players on our Big Board averaging a double-double right now. Once again, Harrell has boosted his productivity across the board this season. He's even shooting it better from the free throw line. Alas, that 3-point shooting we were promised never materialized. After shooting 3-for-3 from beyond the arc in Louisville's opener, Harrell is 0-for-12 since.
Dec 2 Update: Harrell drew a lot of buzz when he went 3-for-3 from behind the arc in his first game this season. The thought was that Harrell had spent the summer improving his jumper and would be unstoppable now that he could stretch the floor. It hasn't quite worked out that way. Since opening night, Harrell is 0-for-6 from 3-point range. The good news is that he has improved his jump shot. He shot 37 percent on his 2s last season and is up to 41 percent this season.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: A Harrell had arguably the single most impressive game of any of our top prospects this weekend. He scored 30 points and grabbed seven rebounds in a big win versus a legit opponent in Minnesota. But it was how he did it that was so special. Not only was Harrell an athletic terror in the paint, he went 3-for-4 from beyond the arc, as well. Harrell followed it up on Monday with a 15-point, seven-rebound performance against Jackson State. However he missed all three of the 3-pointers he took. If he's added a consistent deep jumper to his game, he's going to move up and move up fast on our Big Board. The question is whether the Minnesota or the Jacksonville State game was more representative of his new jump shot.
Oct 31 Update Harrell has gotten dramatically better each season in college. Blessed with NBA strength, explosive leaping ability, long arms and a motor that won't quit when he's focused, Harrell can be a beast in the paint. He's a tad undersized for his position and isn't always locked in. He showed the semblance of a perimeter game this summer. If that can translate into the season, he too could end up moving up a few spots in the rankings.
Oct 8 Update: Harrell would likely have been a late lottery pick after either his freshman or sophomore year had he decided to declare for the draft. Blessed with a ridiculous 7-foot-3 wingspan that makes up for his below-average height (6-7 in shoes), elite athletic ability and an NBA-ready body, Harrell has all the physical tools to be an elite NBA power forward. He also comes blessed with an amazing motor. He's very active around the basket and tries to dunk everything, which explains his 73 percent shooting mark at the rim. Harrell took a huge step forward offensively as a sophomore and showed that he can do more than just dunk. While his jump shot and moves in the paint are still a work in progress, the key thing for scouts was that there was significant progress. Defensively, he could be a better rebounder and shot-blocker than his numbers suggest. Perhaps that's what's hurting him in your metrics, Kevin?
Pelton: Rebounding is a bit of an issue, especially on the defensive glass. Harrell improved there as a sophomore as well, and if he takes a similar leap as a junior, the stats could converge with the subjective perspective. One hidden factor holding down Harrell's offensive efficiency is his poor free throw shooting: 47.7 percent in his college career. As a result, Harrell's true shooting percentage has been worse than his field goal percentage.
Sept. 9 Update: Harrell isn't flashy, but his combination of toughness, a terrific motor, and great athleticism have seen him increase his productivity his two years at Louisville. Now he needs to prove to scouts that he has a face the basket game, as well. His jumper wasn't falling at Adidas Nations, which discouraged scouts a little, but he put the ball on the floor and created some offense that way.
July 16 Update: Harrell had a terrific sophomore season before shocking NBA scouts with his decision to return to Louisville. Given the dearth of size in last year's draft, he likely would've been a late-lottery/mid-first-round pick. He has many things that scouts love to see in a big man's toughness, a terrific motor, and great athleticism. But he's going to have to develop offensively if he wants to stay in contention for a lottery pick.
April 14 Update: Harrell announced he's returning to Louisville for his junior season. Harrell's decision to stay at Louisville for another season comes as a bit of a surprise. He was widely regarded as a late-lottery pick by most NBA teams. His combination of strength, athletic ability and length makes him a terror in the paint. But there's still upside if Harrell returns. He can continue to add polish to his game offensively. If he can add more low-post moves to his game, I think he could be a top-10 pick in 2015.
April 8 Update: Harrell is a beast in the paint. If he were a few inches taller, he'd be much higher on this board. However, his length, explosive athletic ability and motor make him a great candidate for the mid-first round.
Apr 2 Update: Harrell had an impressive performance in the tournament, with two double-doubles. He was a beast in the paint as usual and has all the makings of a solid NBA power forward, with strength, length and explosive leaping ability. If he were a few inches taller, he'd be a top-10 pick, but I think he still has a good shot at going in the lottery.
Mar 17 Update: Smith garners the headlines with his gaudy scoring exploits, but it's Harrell who really intrigues the NBA scouts. His length, toughness and athletic ability in the paint are tailor-made for the NBA. He's not a dominant scorer yet, but when he works hard down low, he can get a lot done.
Mar 5 Update: Harrell is a terrific athlete and can be a beast on the boards. He's offensively limited and a little undersized but should provide the Clippers with some toughness at the 4 off the bench.
Feb 11 Update: Harrell has picked up his scoring load since Chane Behanan left the team, but his rebounding numbers have slid a bit in the past two weeks. While he's not considered an elite prospect by most teams, Harrell's athleticism, energy and toughness could make him a long-time fixture in the NBA.
Jan 29 Update: Harrell is starting to come on strong in the second half of the season; he has posted double-doubles in four of his last five games, including an 18-point, 13-rebound effort at UConn. He is undersized and can't shoot free throws, but his length, explosiveness around the basket, and motor make up for much of it.
Jan. 23 Update: The Bulls get this pick courtesy of the disastrous Tyrus Thomas trade years ago. Carlos Boozer might be on the chopping block soon by way of amnesty this summer. The Bulls still will have Taj Gibson there, but he could use some help. Harrell isn't the offensive force that Boozer used to be, but he's long, an explosive athlete and he plays with toughness around the rim. He'll be ideal in a backup role for a team like the Bulls that could always use more help on the boards.
Dec 17 Update: Randle and Vonleh are the two low-post beasts at the top half of the lottery. But Harrell is holding his own, too. His rebounding numbers are a little bit behind both Randle and Vonleh, but Harrell's shooting an impressive 63 percent from the field, 10 percent higher than either of the other two.
Nov. 27 Update: Harrell continues to dominate the glass while using his motor and athleticism to hustle on offense. He's not the most polished offensive player in the world, but scouts love him as a scrappy 4 who will rebound and defend.
Nov. 12 Update: He's undersized, but Harrell plays much bigger than he looks. A combination of incredible physical strength, explosive athletic ability and agility as well as a non-stop motor makes him very appealing to NBA scouts. His first game of the season showcased his significant defensive abilities (10 points, eight rebounds and four steals).
Nov. 8 Update: Harrell is a long, athletic workhorse who uses his strength and unusual quickness to dominate in the paint. He's undersized (6-foot-
Sept. 9 Update: Putting Harrell on a Sixers team that already includes Noel, Carter-Williams and, if they win the lottery, Wiggins is just plain greedy. Harrell is a bouncy energizer who would be a great fit in Philly. He has a terrific motor and is an excellent rebounder, and he proved this summer that his offensive game is coming along nicely. If he has a big sophomore year at Louisville, he might not be around at No. 11. But if he is, he'd be another great building block for the Sixers.
Aug 13 Update: Harrell had a coming out party of sorts in the NCAA tournament and followed it up with another terrific performance for Team USA in the U-19 championships. Harrell was the third leading scorer for Team USA (10.6 PPG) and showed incredible energy. He has so many traits scouts love in a big man -- athleticism, toughness and a terrific motor. He's still a bit raw offensively, but he's a force of nature in the paint.
Mar 19 Update: Harrell may be the guy to watch. After he annihilated Syracuse in the Big East championship, a lot of scouts started moving him up their draft boards. He really needs another season with Rick Pitino, but a big NCAA tournament could move him into the first round.
27 Terry Rozier 21 PG 6-2 190 Louisville Late First Round Pick
June 18 Update: Rozier had a strong showing at the draft combine and continues to draw praise from teams in the draft. They see him more as a defensive stopper and energy guy coming off the bench right now, but Rozier thrived in his first season at Louisville.
May 18 Update: Rozier was the only player on our Big Board to participate in the combine in its entirety. He played 5-on-5, did the measurements, athletic testing, interviews and medical, and I think it paid off. While his play wasn't necessarily extraordinary, he helped himself in a couple of ways. "I've always thought he was a fearless kid," one GM said. "And I think he proved that by coming out here and playing his *** off. I don't think he's got special floor vision and his jump shot could get better, but he plays at a great pace, is really tough and is so quick with the ball. He impressed me."
May 15 Update: Rozier also drew praise. He was the highest-ranked player on my Big Board to play, and after a slow start he ended with 13 points on 5-for-9 shooting along with two assists and two steals. "He wasn't awesome," one GM said. "But I loved that he had the confidence to come out here and play. He's a tough, confident kid, and I think we all love that."
Apr 29 Update: Rozier is going to want to quiet doubters who wonder whether he can play the point and hit shots. The workout process isn't the ideal spot to show great point guard skills, but if he works to get others involved in workouts instead of just taking over every play, he'll help himself. There are a lot of other things to like in Rozier, including his toughness, athleticism and aggressiveness.
Apr 7 Update: Rozier's decision to declare for the draft was a somewhat controversial one. Those who love him see his toughness, athleticism and ability to finish at the rim and project him as mid-first-rounder. The skeptical ones question whether he's really a point guard and wonder about his jump shot. Thus, he has a pretty wide range right now, from about 18 to 35.
Mar 31 Update: Rozier also had a solid game against North Carolina State, scoring 17 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. His toughness and athleticism are the major appeal and they were on full display in both games. However, against Michigan State, the biggest knock against Rozier reared its ugly head: shot selection. He shot just 6-for-23 from the field and many of the shots he took were ugly ones -- the type that coaches never want their point guards taking. With so many teams concerned that Rozier still hasn't shown command of the point guard position, Sunday's performance didn't help. Like Harrell, he's probably going in the late teens to early 20s if he declares, but his last impression this season wasn't a good one.
Mar 30 Update: Rozier will declare for the 2015 NBA Draft. Rozier had his breakout this summer at the LeBron and Adidas Nations camp and with a major increase in minutes, saw his production dramatically improve from his freshman to sophomore seasons. He has great athleticism and toughness, plays with a terrific motor, and can be a hound defensively. His lack of a consistent three point shot, poor shot selection at times and questions about his ability to run the point in the NBA make him a somewhat controversial prospect. All of those weaknesses were on display in Rozier?s last game against Michigan State on Sunday and may have dinged his draft stock a bit. Some scouts think he?s worthy of a late lottery to mid-first round pick. Others see him more in the late first round to second round. Thus his draft range right now is pretty wide ? think 18 to 35. Workouts will likely be key for Rozier to separate himself from a slew of other point guard prospects in a similar range.
Mar 23 Update: Rozier was awesome against Northern Iowa on Sunday, scoring 25 points, dishing out seven assists and committing just two turnovers. When Rozier plays like he did on Sunday, the talk about him being a late lottery to mid-first round pick don't see far fetched. He's tough, athletic and can get wherever he wants on the floor. His jump shot is still a question mark, he's shooting 2-for-7 from three, but given his strong play as a point guard lately, the Kyle Lowry comps don't seem too far off.
Mar 18 Update: Rozier is a combo guard who is trying to convince teams he's a real point guard. Like Harrell, his best attributes are toughness, athleticism and a strong motor. Few guards play harder on both ends than Rozier. Skills-wise, he's just an average shooter and doesn't see the floor as well as other point guards in the draft, but the scouts who love him see a young Kyle Lowry. He's in the 20-to-35 range.
Mar 11 Update: With Chris Jones kicked off the team, Rozier has been asked to play more of a facilitator role, and the last three games Rozier has averaged six assists per game (up from 2.8 for the season) and nearly four steals per game. Rozier might never be a pure point guard, but his toughness, ability to hound players on the defensive end and his explosiveness getting to the rim remind some scouts of a young Kyle Lowry.
Feb 11 Update: Rozier might not be the purest point guard on the floor or the best shooter, but he's a dogged defender, tough as nails and fearless when it comes to attacking the rim. Teams are hoping there's some Kyle Lowry in him.
Jan 6 Update: Rozier has dramatically improved as a scorer. He has gone from averaging 7.0 PPG as a freshman to 17.1 PPG this season, and he's doing it while shooting a more efficient percentage from the field. However, questions remain about his point guard skills. He had a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio as a freshman, and that's dropped to 2.3-to-2.1. If Rozier is just an undersized scoring guard, his draft stock plummets. With Chris Jones taking the lead as a point guard, Rozier isn't getting a lot of chances to show what he can do as a playmaker.
Dec 17 Update: There is good news and bad news about Rozier. On the one hand, he's having a breakout season offensively. Rozier has doubled his scoring and improved his other numbers across the board. His 3-point shot has been hit or miss so far this season, but that's not the worry. The worry is the 2.3 assists per game and 2.1 turnovers per game. When Chris Jones is out and Rozier is in running the point, he hasn't shown scouts a lot of signs that he's a true point guard. At 6-foot-2, he's going to have to show more playmaking ability to stay in the first round.
Dec 2 Update: With Russ Smith off to the NBA, Rozier's offensive numbers have increased. He has doubled his point production and proved to be a terrific rebounder for a player his size. However, question marks remain. He's shooting a paltry 18 percent from beyond the arc, and his assist numbers aren't what scouts want them to be for Rozier to make his case as a point guard. He's shown toughness, but he's been a slight letdown after his impressive play over the summer.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: A- After a red-hot summer, Rozier picked up right where he left off on Friday against Minnesota. He had 18 points, six rebounds, four assists, four steals and zero turnovers. He was really outstanding on both ends of the court. He followed it up on Monday with 13 points on 5-for-7 shooting against Jacksonville State. However he had only one assist.
Nov 14 Update: Rozier looks like one of the few candidates who could break into the lottery. We will see if his strong performance at the LeBron James Academy this summer spills over into the regular season. He's a very good athlete, is tough, gets rebounds and has the strength to get where he wants to on the floor. If he can improve as a finisher and as a jump-shooter, he'll garner a lot of interest in the late lottery to mid-first round.
Oct 2 Update: Rozier is the highest-ranked returning college player on my Big Board. He was, in many ways, an unlikely candidate to nab the top spot. He wasn't ranked among the elite of the elite coming out of high school, and he played a backup role behind Russ Smith and Chris Jones at Louisville last year.
But scouts loved what they saw out of Rozier in limited minutes and in practice as a freshman, and he absolutely wowed them this summer with his play at the LeBron James Skills Academy and Adidas Nations camp. I think he's likely the second-best point guard prospect in the draft behind Emmanuel Mudiay. He's got length, toughness, explosive athletic ability and can get wherever he wants on the floor. And with Smith off to the NBA, he's going to get plenty of minutes.
I know his jump shot is a pretty big concern right now. But to me, he has all the makings of a potential lottery pick.
What do you think, Kevin?
Kevin Pelton: Because my draft projections don't include incoming freshmen, we look a little more in agreement on Rozier than we really are. He'd have ranked 20th in my final 2014 rankings, for example. Still, his performance off the bench showed definite athletic potential. Rozier's steal rate was solid, and he was an excellent rebounder from the backcourt, pulling down 9.0 percent of all available misses, nearly average for a small forward. As I've noted before, rebound rate is a surprisingly important indicator for point guards. The big thing I'd like to see from Rozier as a sophomore is improved finishing. He made just 50.7 percent of his shots at the rim, per Hoop-Math.com.
Sept. 9 Update: Rozier didn't get a lot of chances to shine as a freshman, but with Russ Smith off to the NBA, he's going to get his chance. Rozier drew serious praise from scouts at both the LeBron and Adidas Nations camps. The majority of them believe he could be the second best point guard in this draft behind Mudiay. He has very good athleticism and toughness and his quickness and strength allow him to get wherever he wants on the floor. If he can get that jump shot falling consistently this year, he could be a lottery pick.
April 28 Update: Rozier had a solid freshman season for Louisville. He came off the bench behind Russ Smith and Chris Jones which limited his minutes. But when he was on the floor, he showed flashes of greatness and the word inside Louisville is that they expect huge things from him next year now that Smith is off to the NBA.
28 Chris McCullough 20 PF 6-9 199 Syracuse Late First Round Pick
June 18 Update: McCullough is widely regarded as a value pick in the late first round. Had he stayed in school, he could've been a lottery pick next year. He's athletic and versatile.
May 18 Update: McCullough, despite the ACL tear, appears to be sneaking back into the first round. Whereas guys such as Harrell, Wright and Anderson are considered "safe" picks, McCullough is a swing-for-the-fences type of player. "He won't be ready all season," one GM said. "I'd take the same approach with him that Philly did with Nerlens Noel. He's not that type of talent, but a year working on his body and learning the nuances of the game could be good for him. If he had stayed in school, I think he would've been a lottery pick next year. So he has good value here."
Apr 2 Update: McCullough announced several weeks ago that he'll return to Syracuse for his sophomore season. However, on Thursday multiple news outlets reported that he had changed his mind and was declaring for the draft. McCullough got off to a hot start to his freshman season at Syracuse and flew up draft boards to the point that many scouts and GMs saw him as a late lottery to mid-first round pick. However, he began to struggle as the season moved on, and then tore his ACL prompting a a subsequent slide down the draft board. His decision to declare is a puzzling one. He is a bubble first-rounder this year, but had he returned healthy for his sophomore season, he likely would?ve have been back in that late lottery to mid-first round range. Look for him to go in the 20 to 40 range.
Jan 13 Update: Syracuse announced Monday that McCullough had torn his ACL and would be out for the rest of the season, an injury sustained against Florida State on Sunday. The move is another piece of bad news in McCullough's already sliding draft stock. He started the season great and looked like a lottery pick through his first eight games, but struggled more recently. In his last six games prior to his injury he was averaging 4.5 PPG and shooting just 28 percent from the field. He had fallen to No. 24 on our latest Big Board.
The latest news obviously does not help his draft stock, but it doesn't hurt as bad as some may think. Most NBA teams were looking at McCullough as a project anyway. His length, athleticism and ability to block shots and shoot the basketball were the selling points. But everyone understood he would take a few years to develop. While getting drafted in the lottery certainly seems out of the question, teams have not shied away from drafting players with torn ACLs in the past. He could be viewed as a value pick by teams drafting in the late first to early second round. However, his best course of action if he wants to be a lottery pick someday is to return to Syracuse for his sophomore season.
Jan 6 Update: McCullough's production plummeted in the second half of December. Maybe Jim Boeheim was right to be so incredulous at his soaring draft stock a month ago. After scoring in double figures in his first eight games (including three double-doubles), McCullough's offense has completely disappeared. In his past six games, he is averaging 4.5 PPG and shooting just 28 percent from the field. The only number that really hasn't dipped for McCullough is his shot-blocking. Scouts still insist that McCullough's defensive potential and ability to hit jumpers make him a great prospect, but if he can't figure out how to start putting the ball in the basket, his stock obviously is going to take a big hit.
Dec 17 Update: McCullough has another typical solid performance for Syracuse against Michigan (10 points, 12 boards, 3 assists) and St. John's (13 points, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks) before posting his worst game of the year: a five-point, six-rebound performance against Louisiana Tech. But even in that game, the flashes of what scouts love about McCullough were there. He had three blocks and three steals against Louisiana Tech. He's averaging 2.4 blocks and two steals per game, a potent defensive combination for the analytics crowd.
Dec 2 Update: He wasn't mentioned before the season in the same breath as Okafor, Towns, Oubre, Johnson or Winslow, but McCullough is having as good a season as all of them. It's not every day that you find a 19-year-old athletic big man with a crazy 7-foot-3 wingspan who can be effective both at the rim and from the perimeter. Forty-one percent of McCullough's shots have been from the perimeter and he's hitting a very respectable 42 percent of them. At the rim, he's been better, shooting 71 percent. If he can continue his hot play all season, he's a likely top-10 pick.
Nov 26 Update: No one has seen his stock rise more in the first two weeks of the season than McCullough. He is averaging 15.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 2.6 BPG in his first five games for Syracuse, including two very strong games against Cal (12 points, 7 rebounds, 5 blocks) and Iowa (20 points, 9 rebounds, 3 blocks). Those are impressive numbers for a freshman. But what intrigues scouts is what's behind the numbers. McCullough has a 7-foot-3 wingspan, is an explosive leaper and is the rare big who can protect the rim on defense and stretch the floor on offense. He needs to add a lot of strength, but virtually every scout I spoke to who saw him play last week in New York came away feeling he'd be a lottery pick.
August 1 Update: McCullough is an interesting prospect. He's got elite athletic abilities and he's got some stretch four in him as well. You don't see that sort of combination every day. Given how depleted Syracuse is, he should get plenty of minutes. If he has a big season, he'll get a lot of looks in the lottery.
29 Jarell Martin 21 PF 6-9 239 LSU Late First Round Pick
June 18 Update: Martin's athleticism and improved shooting seem to be bringing him back into favor with scouts. He'll also work out in front of NBA teams in Las Vegas on Friday, and a strong showing there could help his stock.
Apr 29 Update: Martin has talent. But scouts just aren't sure exactly what he's going to be at the next level. Either he measures better than expected and scouts believe he's big enough to play the 4 (a lack of a huge wingspan hurts his cause) or he loses some weight, gets a lot of reps in the gym on that jumper and makes scouts comfortable that he can make the transition to the 2. Otherwise, he's in no-man's-land.
Mar 25 Update: Martin will reportedly forgo his final two seasons at LSU and enter the draft the New Orleans Picayune reported. Martin has sat on the first round bubble his entire freshmen and sophomore seasons. He's an excellent athlete, has a NBA body and a versatile skill set. His lack of elite length or size for his position and just a so-so 3-point shot are the things that limit his upside. But with Ben Simmons, a candidate for the No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft, coming to LSU next season, it was probably time for Martin to move on. Simmons plays the same position and is a better prospect. Look for Martin to go somewhere in the 25 to 40 range.
Mar 18 Update:Both Martin and Mickey possess elite-level NBA talent. They just don't show it on a consistent enough basis. Martin's been the better of the two this season and has slowly played his way into the discussion as a late-first-round pick. He's got great athleticism, an NBA body and a versatile skill set, but his lack of ideal height and length for his position limit his ceiling.
Feb 24 Update: Martin was considered one of the top 10 players in the high school class of 2013 but quickly faded in the draft discussion after a less-than-dominant freshman year (thanks in large part to some early-season injuries). His strong play of late, however, has scouts talking again. Martin had 21 points and 11 rebounds against a Kentucky front line that sports four potential first-round picks. He followed it up 10 days later (on Saturday) with a 28-point, 13-rebound performance against Florida. Martin hasn't proved to be the shooter he was pegged to be out of high school (30 percent on 3s and 34 percent on 2-point jumpers). But he's been a strong finisher at the rim and a solid rebounder.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: B+ Martin opened up the season with 21 points and 11 rebounds in LSU's opener versus Gardner-Webb. However, he was only 1-for-7 from 3 and committed five turnovers.
Sept. 9 Update: Martin got off to a slow start last season, but finished pretty strong for LSU. He attended the LeBron camp this summer and while he wasn't a standout prospect there, scouts said he looked stronger, played harder and had the tools to be a NBA player someday, especially if he can show more balance between his perimeter game (he loves to take jumpers) and his low post one.
July 16 Update: Martin was one of the top high school prospects in the country last year. Then, early injuries slowed him down and he was eventually overshadowed by Johnny O'Bryant and fellow freshman Jordan Mickey. He's strong but relies too much on his jump shot. He also lacks great length for his position. But the talent is clearly there. If he gets more time in the post, he could rise.
April 13 Update: Martin is one of the highest-upside players in the draft. He doesn't really have a position, but he does so many things well that it might not matter. A potential sleeper in this draft.
30 Anthony Brown 22 SG 6-7 211 Stanford Late First Round Pick
June 18 Update: Stanford's Brown also showed much better at the workout as well. He is the ideal size for an NBA wing and has shot better than 44 percent from 3 his last two seasons.
Feb 6 Update: The numbers actually tell a pretty similar story about Brown, who rates as completely undraftable (minus-1.1 WARP). Besides his late development, a really poor steal rate works against Brown. Yet I still think he's got a chance to enjoy a long NBA career. Every year in May and June, when players like Danny Green are making a big impact in the playoffs, readers ask about possible 3-and-D college prospects. Usually, that means selling them players who are skilled in one area or the other but will have to develop into a well-rounded player. Brown is already there. He's got enough size and length (6-7 with a 6-10 wingspan) to defend either wing spot, and he's made better than 45 percent of his 3s the past two seasons. I see Green and Khris Middleton as possible optimistic outcomes for Brown. What are scouts seeing?
Ford: Brown is definitely a prospect and for all the reasons you stated. In fact, Green is the guy most NBA scouts cite when talking about him. Given his age and low analytics scores, he looks more like a second-round prospect right now but I could see him sneaking into the first round the same way his teammate, Josh Huestis, did last year. He's got good size for his position, is a good athlete and, for the second year in a row, he's shooting better than 45 percent from 3.
31 Cedi Osman 20 PG 6-6 190 Macedonia Late First Round Pick
Apr 13 Update: The young point guard/forward averaged an impressive 18 minutes a game for Efes Istanbul this year. His 6.4 points and 1.1 assists per game aren't great, but scouts are always intrigued by big point guards who can see the floor and play the game the way he does. He's not a great shooter and needs to get stronger, but as a long-term, draft-and-stash candidate, he's intriguing.
32 Dakari Johnson 19 C 7-0 265 Kentucky Late First Round Pick
June 18: He has the requisite size and strength to man the middle, is a good rebounder and in the workout, I watched as he showed a nice midrange jumper, as well. Conditioning has been an issue in the past, but on Saturday, Johnson looked as trim as I've ever seen him.
May 18 Update: Johnson is another "safe" late first-round pick. No one thinks he'll be an NBA All-Star but his combination of size and strength make him an ideal NBA backup big man. With so many teams needing help off the bench in the middle, the likelihood he hears his name called somewhere in the late first round is high.
Apr 9 Update: Johnson has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Johnson has spent the last two seasons stuck on the proverbial first round bubble. He has NBA size and strength, but his production over the past two years at Kentucky has lived up to expectations. While he got in better shape this season, he could still stand to improve his conditioning as he still primarily plays below the rim. Look for him to go in the 25 to 40 range.
Dec 22 Update: Johnson also had a strong game against UCLA. While he scored only four points, he tallied five rebounds, six assists and four blocks. He's not quite the defender that Cauley-Stein or Towns is, so four blocks was a surprise. He has power and knows how to carve out space in the paint. While pro teams don't think he's a star, many of them see him as an ideal backup center in the NBA.
"He plays hard, he competes, he can score a little and he can rebound," one GM said. "I'm not sure there's any one thing he does great, but he doesn't have a lot of weaknesses either. I know we could use him right now. He'd get 20 minutes a night on my team. You can't have enough bigs."
Dec 17 Update: Johnson is the fourth Kentucky player on our Big Board. He doesn't have the upside of Towns, the offensive polish of Lyles or the elite size and athleticism of Cauley-Stein, but he's big, efficient and gets it done on both ends of the floor. No one is projecting Johnson as a superstar, but as a rotation big in the NBA? Lots of scouts see that.
Dec 2 Update: Johnson actually has the highest PER of any player on the Kentucky team, and one of the best PERs in the country. He has been especially effective on the boards and is surprisingly ranked third on the team in points per game. There's very little that's sexy about Johnson. But he's big and he rebounds, and he projects as a solid backup big man at the next level.
Nov 18 Update: vs. KU: 11 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 5-for-6 shooting in 20 minutes Johnson had a dominant night in the paint, punishing KU's big men at will. Johnson isn't an elite athlete, but his ability to use size and strength in the post is appealing. Said one scout, "I'm not sure he's ever a starting center in our league, but he could play backup minutes on a lot of NBA teams right now."
Oct 12 Update: Scouts also walked away impressed with big man Dakari Johnson. "He's in much better shape and moving so much better," one scout said. "I had questions about him because of his lack of athleticism, but he looked like a legit first-rounder, maybe even late lottery pick, this weekend."
Johnson's 34-inch vertical was not elite, but better than expected by scouts. His measurements were also terrific. He's a legit 7-footer in shoes, and had a 9-foot-2 standing reach. Given all the praise surrounding Johnson, you can expect him to make a significant leap on our next Big Board.
Sept 12 Update: Big man Dakari Johnson also seemed like a lock for the top 30, but with the strong play of Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein returning from injury, there's question marks about how many minutes he'll get.
April 23 Update: Johnson had a shot at being a late-first-round pick because there is a dearth of centers in this year's draft, despite limited production as a freshman. The question is, will another year at Kentucky help? In theory, yes. He has a lot of room to improve, and another year should help with that. On the other hand, Kentucky is loaded up front. Willie Cauley-Stein, Marcus Lee, Karl Towns Jr. and Trey Lyles are all there as well. Will they all get playing time? Of the group, Johnson is the least talented prospect. He could be the odd man out.
Apr 2 Update: Freshman big man Dakari Johnson also has drawn praise. While no one, and I repeat no one, thinks he's ready for the NBA, his play with Willie Cauley-Stein out nursing an injured ankle has been phenomenal. He had 15 points and six rebounds against Louisville on Friday and eight points and three rebounds versus Michigan. Not lottery numbers, but for someone with his size, they are intriguing. If he declares for the draft, a number of GMs told me he'd get looks in the late first round, the same way Daniel Orton did a few years ago. But if he wants a long-term NBA career, he really needs to return to school.
Mar 28 Update: Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton break down the draft prospects of all the Kentucky players using both analytics and scouting tools in our latest Eyes, Ears and Numbers column.
Nov. 13 Update: Johnson didn't get a huge amount of run on Tuesday. When he was in the game, he looked solid defensively, but way behind on the offensive end. Teams will always be intrigued because of his size, which means it's doubtful he slides completely out of the first.
Nov. 12 Update: Johnson saw just nine minutes of time coming off the bench in Kentucky's opener. In those nine minutes he picked up four fouls and scored five points with one rebound. In his second game, he scored seven points and grabbed four rebounds. Not exactly a stellar start, but remember, with so few true centers in the draft, his stock won't be completely tied to his production.
Sept 9 Update: Johnson isn't even likely to start for Kentucky this season, but that won't stop him from getting mentioned as a possible first-round pick in 2014. He's big, has an NBA body, and likes to mix it up in the paint. If he shows any real promise, someone will take the gamble. The Bulls lack real depth in the middle and might be willing to take a shot on him.
Aug 13 Update: Johnson is the sixth player on our board from Kentucky and, were he likely to start as a freshman, would probably be 10 to 15 spots higher. There's a dearth of centers on our board, and Johnson is the only one who really plays like a traditional, back-to-the-basket big man. He's strong, physical and should provide a boost off the bench for the Wildcats this season behind Cauley-Stein.
April 13 Update: Johnson's size and strength in the post should be an immediate hit with scouts. I'm not sure how much playing time he'll get backing up Willie Cauley-Stein -- but he wouldn't be the firs Kentucky player to come off the bench and still crack the first round.
33 Joseph Young 22 SG 6-2 182 Oregon Late First Round Pick
Mar 23 Update: What else can you say about Young? Time and time again he's proven to be one of the most lethal scorers in the country. He dropped 30 points on Wisconsin, shooting 12-for-25 from the field with four assists and just one turnover. He added 27 points on 8-for-15 shooting against Oklahoma State. For the tournament he shot 5-for-12 from three. The question for Young is -- can he make the transition to the point? He has the quickness to get anywhere he wants on the floor and he's a good enough shooter -- but does he see the floor well enough to run the point? It will be very interesting to see what teams do with him. Right now he's a second-round pick, but the scouts I spoke with were all impressed.
May 17 Update: Young, surprisingly, won Pac-12 Player of the Year this season, and he is one of the single best scoring guards in the country. He's super quick, can get any shot he wants and is fearless taking them. He's been running some point this season for Oregon, which has helped his NBA stock some, however most scouts see him as a volume shooting extremely undersized 2-guard. I'm not sure, even with a crazy-great NCAA tournament, that he can play his way in to the first round.
April 9 Update: Young announced he was returning to Oregon for his senior season. One of the most dynamic scorers in the Pac-12 this season, Young was clearly on the NBA radar. Had he declared this year he would have likely been a second-round pick. I'm not sure his draft stock will rise dramatically next year given his lack of size for his position, but there weren't a lot reasons to declare for the draft this year.
Mar 20 Update: Young, a transfer from Houston, has been a perfect fit at Oregon this season. He's scoring from everywhere on the floor, shooting 42 percent from 3 and showing aggressiveness on both ends. Unfortunately, he's just 6-2 and doesn't really show signs of being a point guard.
34 Rakeem Christmas 23 C 6-10 243 Syracuse Late First Round Pick
June 18 Update: Christmas helped himself more than anyone in the draft at the combine, and a number of sources suggest that his strong play has carried over into workouts. Christmas, 23, looked the part on Friday as well, showing that he belonged with Porzingis, Turner and Martin every step of the way. Despite Christmas' age, I keep hearing rumblings he's moved into the first round.
May 18 Update: Christmas was the leading scorer at the combine, averaging 19.5 PPG, 6 RPG and 1.5 BPG in about 27 minutes per game. Christmas showed the ability to score both inside and outside and his measurements, particularly a 7-foot-5 wingspan, a 9-2.5 standing reach and weight (246 pounds), all put him in the category of NBA center. Christmas was projected as a late second-rounder before the combine. I think he's going to be one of the first picks off the board in the second round now after talking with scouts.
May 15 Update: Of the players who decided to play in the 5-on-5 games, a handful really stood out. Syracuse's Rakeem Christmas was the big winner the past few days. He had an awesome senior season at Syracuse, but most NBA scouts dismissed it because of his age and three previous lackluster years at Syracuse.
Not only were his measurements terrific -- 6-foot-9¾ in shoes, with a crazy 7-5¼ wingspan and 9-2½ standing reach (enough to project as an NBA center) -- but he also came out and dominated in the 5-on-5, scoring 20 points on 7-for-10 shooting, grabbing 6 rebounds and blocking a shot.
"He had an advantage [over his combine competition] as a four-year senior," one NBA GM said. "But that wasn't what set him apart. I felt he showed that he could disrupt shots, attack the rim and play bigger than I felt he did at Syracuse. There aren't many centers in this draft after the lottery, and I think he'll draw a lot of interest for teams in the late first and early second."
Jan 20 Update: Christmas was a highly regarded prospect out of high school who never really evolved into anything more than a defensive stopper his first three seasons at Syracuse. As a junior, Christmas averaged a measly 5.8 points per game and could get on the court for only 23.6 minutes per game.
And while scouts regarded him as a marginal NBA prospect because of his shot blocking and rebounding ability, no one saw this coming. This year Christmas is averaging 18.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game and shooting 60 percent from the field. He has to be, hands down, the most improved player in college basketball.
And Christmas is doing all of this without much help from his teammates. He faces persistent double-teams every night, and even in bad games for Syracuse, he's been dominant.
Scouts tend to shy away from 23-year-olds who didn't start producing until they were 22. But it's not unprecedented that such a player would attract interest. Adreian Payne went No. 15 last year as a 23-year-old with a breakout senior season. Christmas doesn't have the same potential as Payne (Payne is bigger and can really shoot the ball), but there is interest in the league. I spoke to a number of NBA scouts who thought he'd get a lot of looks in the second round and perhaps even some looks late in the first.
"Age matters in the NBA draft," one GM said. "But size and athleticism matter even more. No one will take him really high, but he's really improved and at his size and with his physical tools, I think he's worth the risk in the late 20s or 30s."
Christmas sits at No. 50 on our Big Board but clearly could rise as he the draft gets closer.
April 11, 2012 Update: Christmas has some scouts drooling because of his athletic abilities on the defensive end. Think the next Patric Young. Defensively he could play in the NBA right now. The big question for him will be how far he comes along on the offensive end of the ball. He has a tendency to disappear for long stretches.
35 Olivier Hanlan 22 SG 6-4 186 Boston College Late First Round Pick
Apr 12 Update: Hanlan's decision is an interesting one. He's unlikely to be drafted in the first round but given his age (22) and a strong junior season, his draft stock may be as high as it's going to get. Hanlan is a bit of a 'tweener. He's an undersized shooting guard without the elite athleticism that could make up the difference. Some scouts think he might be able to play the point in the NBA. If he can convince scouts, his stock rises considerably.
36 Guillermo Hernangomez 20 C 6-11 255 Spain Late First Round Pick
Apr 13 Update: Hernangomez has gotten lots of eyeballs since he's on the same team with Porzingis. He's big and can rebound and score in the post. He may be suffering from too many expectations from scouts who have wanted to be wowed by his development, but often come away feeling that he's just "pretty good." Like Zhou and Guven, he's a candidate to sneak into the first.
Feb 12 Update: In the process of putting together my statistical big board, I looked at international prospects for the first time this season, and Hernangomez stood out. Playing for the same team as top-10 prospect Kristaps Porzingis, he's averaging 18.1 points and 10.0 rebounds per 36 minutes in Spanish ACB league play to Porzingis' 17.1 points and 7.6 rebounds. Porzingis is still rated the better prospect by virtue of his superior block rate and being eight months younger, but that suggests to me that Hernangomez should be in the first round. Is that crazy?
Ford: No, not at all. I know a few scouts who have him ranked there. I think it's about expectations with Hernangomez. He has been on the radar screen since he played in the 2013 Adidas Eurocamp, when many scouts thought he'd be a first-round pick in 2014. Those big expectations led to disappointment and I think that explains why he's in the middle of the second round right now. When I talked to scouts about him a few weeks ago, several predicted he'd rise to the first round once he got into workouts. He has great size, terrific hands and is skilled for his size. He may lack the aggressiveness that teams are hoping for, but I can see him as a first-round pick, especially given how weak the international class is after Porzingis and Hezonja are off the board.
Jan 13 Update: There was a strong debate on Hernangomez. He's the teammate of Porzingis in Sevilla this season so he has had a lot of scouts and GMs taking a close look. That can be a good thing and a bad thing. Some scouts feel because of his size and potential, he has the strongest case for finding his way into the top 30. However, others were equally insistent that every time they see him play, they walk out of the gym disappointed.
Those who saw him drop 29 points and 13 rebounds against Barcelona in December certainly weren't disappointed. It was one of the ACB's best performances of the season. However, for the season he's averaging 10.5 points and 5.9 rebounds, while shooting 54 percent from field in 22 minutes per game. Solid numbers, but nothing that will blow you away either.
Still, some scouts are preaching patience with him. "He's a really skilled player with nice mitts," said one evaluator. "Once he gets into workouts, you'll see his stock really start to rise. He's one of the few guys in Europe right now with a really bright NBA future."
June 11 Update: Hernangomez impressed NBA scouts at the 2013 Adidas Eurocamp with his play. He put up strong numbers throughout the week and put himself on the radar screen as a potential first round pick in 2014.
37 Christian Wood 19 PF 6-11 216 UNLV Late First Round Pick
June 18 Update: Wood has the talent of a lottery pick. He has great size, athleticism and skill. But as I wrote on Monday, teams seem to be very turned off right now. The feedback from his interviews at the draft combine and in workouts has been disappointing.
May 18 Update: Everyone likes Wood's talent, but he was another player who raised more questions than answers in interviews with teams. Why wasn't he playing? Why wasn't he in better shape? What's he been doing the past month? Lots of questions about maturity are surrounding him right now and as a result, you're seeing him slide just a bit on draft boards.
Apr 29 Update: Scouts and GMs have been on the fence about Wood for most of the season and it wasn't until he got off the fence and declared for the draft that the praise for his potential began to grow. He checks off a lot of boxes for NBA scouts. He's long, a great athlete, a rim protector and he can stretch the floor. He needs to hit the weight room, improve his shot selection and improve a somewhat negative perception that teams have of him as a person in interviews. But as far as upside goes, there are few players left at this point in the draft that have Wood's ceiling.
Apr 22 Update: Wood has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Wood recently entered our Top 30, and there is upside for him to rise higher with great workouts. He is an athletic big man who runs the floor, blocks shots and and can even step out and hit jumpers. The fact that he's just 19 also works in his favor. If he gets stronger and improves his shot selection, he could be a big-time talent. While his stock is in the 20 to 30 range right now, he could work his way into the late lottery or middle of the first round if he wows in workouts. He has that kind of talent.
Apr 8 Update: Wood cracks our Big Board for the first time and there's a lot to like. He has great size, length and athleticism for his position. He is an explosive leaper, a good rebounder and a tremendous shot-blocker. He also has a much-improved perimeter game and he shot 45 percent on 2-point jump shots this season. He even has some 3-point range. He lacks strength and can often fall in love with his jump shot at the expense of playing in the post, but there is upside there for a team willing to wait on his development.
Feb 24 Update: UNLV's season has been a mess, but Wood has quietly put together a terrific sophomore year. He's had some especially impressive performances lately. In the past two weeks, he had 27 points, 19 rebounds and 7 blocks against Fresno State, and 31 points, 9 rebounds and 5 blocks against Air Force. Five of Wood's past seven performances have been double-doubles, and he's been averaging 4 blocks in his past six games. Although his shot selection leaves a lot to be desired and he needs to add strength, Wood's combination of size, athleticism, rebounding and shot-blocking is getting him serious consideration as a mid-to-late first-round pick.
Dec 31 Update: Wood is having a breakout season for UNLV. His athleticism and ability to rebound and block shots has vaulted him from outside the Top 100 in July into a possible first-round pick. However, he's a major project for whoever drafts him.
38 Cliff Alexander 19 PF 6-9 239 Kansas Late First Round Pick
May 14 Update: We haven't seen Alexander play since Feb. 23. Kansas sat him down after the NCAA began investigating his family for receiving improper benefits. The damage was twofold. Not only did we not get to see Alexander play down the home stretch just as he was beginning to improve, but the investigation forced him into the draft before it was ideal. Now teams are scrambling to figure out where he should go. Everyone knows he has a NBA body, crazy long arms (7-foot-4 wingspan) and tries to dunk everything. His length and motor are probably his two best characteristics right now. But after that, what sort of basketball player is he? What else does he bring to to the table?
One thing I saw in workouts here that I didn't see much of at Kansas was a nice 10- to 15-foot jump shot Alexander was consistently knocking down in drills. He rarely shot it from there at Kansas and the assumption was he didn't have that sort of range. But it was clear from the workouts he's comfortable with that jump shot. He's in no way a stretch four, but there's more there than meets the eye.
Apr 29 Update: Alexander shouldn't be in the draft. But concerns that he would lose his eligibility forced him in. He's got the body and athletic ability to be a decent rotation player at the next level. But does he have the feel for the game? Scouts will be closely looking at the personality testing and interview process when it comes to Alexander.
Apr 7 Update: Alexander announced that he was declaring for the 2015 NBA Draft. Alexander began the season ranked as a potential lottery pick. Blessed with elite strength, athleticism and a terrific motor, scouts expected him to dominate weaker, less athletic bigs in college. Alas, Alexander's lack of basketball IQ and height (just 6-foot-
Mar 16 Update: Alexander was projected as a top-10 pick before the season but has struggled to put it all together and is now benched while the NCAA investigates whether his family took illegal benefits. He has an NBA body, athleticism and can be a beast on the boards, but his offensive game and basketball IQ are both pretty slim. He's in the 20-to-35 range now and would benefit greatly from returning for another season if the NCAA doesn't rule him ineligible.
Feb 11 Update: Alexander continues to play in beast mode and, on many nights, that's enough to propel him into a discussion as a late lottery to mid-first-round pick. His lack of size and basketball IQ remain the biggest obstacles. His NBA body, athleticism and motor make him appealing, but most scouts believe he needs another season at Kansas.
Jan 6 Update: Alexander continues to be an effective energy guy coming off the bench. He took the most shots of his career on Sunday against UNLV and went 5-for-12 from the field for 10 points and five rebounds in 21 minutes. Alexander clearly has an NBA body and terrific athleticism and motor, but his basketball skills are lagging, and once again we saw him struggle a bit against the length of Goodluck Okonoboh and Christian Wood in the UNLV game. At this point, he's moving out of the lottery conversation and looks like he might be better off playing at least one more season at Kansas to polish his skills. Nevertheless, it's a long season and as Oubre proved, things can turn around quickly when the right opportunities come along.
Dec 17 Update: Alexander has been an effective rebounder for Kansas and provides a lot of energy off the bench. But his offensive game hasn't taken off. After a strong 12-point, 10-rebound performance against Florida, he scored just seven points against Georgetown and just one point against Utah's big front line. There's no question that Alexander struggles when matched up against length. That could be a major problem when he goes to the next level.
Dec 2 Update: Alexander is off to a very nice start for Kansas. He's been coming off the bench for the Jayhawks, but when he's in the game, he's had a consistent impact. He has an impressive 30 PER and has also been impressive on the boards. Alexander slips in the ratings a bit because his struggles to finish against Kentucky really alarmed scouts. He's a bit undersized for his position, and the Kentucky game made that weakness glaring. By midseason, I expect Alexander to be in the starting lineup and producing again. When he does, he'll probably move up a spot or two.
Nov 19 Update: vs. UK: 8 points, 8 rebounds, 2-for-7 shooting in 20 minutes
Alexander did some dumb things -- like picking up his first two fouls in the first 20 seconds he was in the game. He struggled to defend Kentucky's bigs, couldn't make free throws and he really struggled to finish over the long arms of Cauley-Stein, Towns, Johnson and Lee. However, he played hard, rebounded and kept attacking. He's not going to have to face another front line like that ever (though Texas could be tough). Overall his effort was one of the only good things Kansas had going for it. I don't think his stock was really affected either way.
Nov 18 Update: Grade: B+ Alexander came off the bench for the Jayhawks and played just 12 minutes. But it was a very effective 12 minutes. He scored nine points, grabbed four rebounds, had a block and infused the second team with some serious energy. With juniors Perry Ellis and Jamari Traylor getting the starts in the frontcourt, Alexander could end up playing this role all season. But as long as he gets minutes and keeps impacting the game this way, it shouldn't affect his draft stock.
Oct 31 Update: Alexander has the body of an NBA All-Star. He's a terrific athlete that always plays in attack mode. The question for Alexander centers on basketball IQ. Unlike the first three guys on the list, Alexander plays almost exclusively off sheer athleticism and strength. He's going to have to pick up the nuances of the game to be an elite prospect at the next level. He reminds a lot of scouts of another former KU power forward, Thomas Robinson.
Sept. 9 Update: Alexander, like Johnson, has the body of a NBA player right now. And like Johnson, Alexander uses that strength to muscle his defenders into submission. But unlike Johnson, teams worry about Alexander's overall basketball IQ. If he shows that his feel for the game is improving, he has the chance to move up the board because the body and athletic ability are clearly there.
July 16 Update: Alexander is a monster. He's 18 and has the body of a 30-year-old NBA power forward. He has long arms, is an explosive leaper and just attacks the rim on both ends of the floor. Every time he gets near the rim, he's looking to dunk. The questions around Alexander center on his lack of elite size for his position (he measures just 6-foot-8 in sneakers) and a low basketball IQ. Alexander plays based purely on instinct. He struggles to make reads on the defensive end and to remember plays. Thomas Robinson is probably a perfect comp for him. He should have a big freshman season for Kansas, but NBA scouts will likely remain a bit wary.
April 15 Update: Alexander already has the body of a 10-year NBA veteran. He is a beast. He also is an explosive athlete and is very quick for someone his size. While he lacks great height for his position (just 6-foot-8 in shoes), he has a huge wingspan and can be an explosive leaper when he gets a head of steam behind him. The best part of his game is that he's always attacking the rim. He wants to dunk and block everything. The question for him is his lack of elite size and basketball IQ. Alexander plays almost purely off instinct and heart. His decision-making on the court is pretty rudimentary. Alexander didn't have a great game Saturday. He was just 2-for-7 from the field with just one rebound.
39 Andrew Harrison 20 PG 6-6 213 Kentucky Late First Round Pick
June 18 Update: Harrison has gotten some of his mojo back after playing well at the NBA draft combine. Suddenly his agent is getting lots of calls from teams wanting him in for workouts.
May 18 Update: It's "in" to bash on the Harrison twins, and they've given their enemies plenty of ammunition. But Andrew did enough here to quiet his most vocal haters. He had 17 points and five assists in the first game and six points and seven assists in the second one. Neither performance blew anyone away, but Harrison was steady, made good passes, played under control and proved he had a talent for getting to the free throw line and making them when he got there. Based on the feedback from scouts in attendance, I'm pretty sure someone will draft him in the 30s or 40s and give it a whirl. It was an important weekend for him and I think he passed the first (of many) tests.
May 15 Update: Harrison was probably the biggest draw here and played really well, scoring 17 points on 5-for-10 shooting, dishing out five assists with zero turnovers, and collecting two steals and two blocked shots.
"I haven't been a big fan of his all year," one GM said. "But if you take all of that away, he was one of the two or three best players here. He played under control, made some great passes, got to the line relentlessly [7-for-8] and just played with confidence. It was a very good showing."
Apr 8 Update: Harrison has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Andrew Harrison was projected as a lottery pick entering his freshman season. However, his struggles the past two seasons have caused his draft stock to plummet. He played much better in the second half of the 2014-15 season and has earned some late-first-round buzz thanks to his elite size for his position and improved shooting. However, there are a lot of question marks surrounding Harrison's ability to get by people at the next level and his leadership abilities. His hot-mic moment after the Wildcats' loss in the Final Four didn't ease scout's concerns about his maturity. He's probably more in the 25-to-45 range.
Mar 31 Update: The push for Andrew Harrison back in the Top 30 took a little bit of a hit this weekend after two fairly unimpressive performances. He averaged as many turnovers as assists in games against West Virginia and Notre Dame, and shot just 2-for-8 from the field. On the plus side, his two made free throws with six seconds left gave the Wildcats the win on Saturday.
Mar 23 Update: Andrew Harrison continues his resurrection as a potential first-round draft prospect with a stellar performance against Hampton with 14 points, four rebounds, three assists one steal and zero turnovers. He also shot 2-for-3 from behind the arc. His play against Cincinnati was a bit more uneven, though he made several NBA type drives to the basket and finished his second straight tournament game without a turnover. If he keeps playing like this through the rest of the tournament, he's going to move back into the mix as a possible first-round pick.
Mar 16 Update: The Harrison twins would be much higher if their shot selection and shooting percentages were better. Andrew, especially, has played much better toward the end of the season, and another strong tournament could push him back into consideration for the first round. He has great size for his position and is a terrific defender.
Dec 22 Update: Harrison had a team-high eight assists on Saturday and hit a couple of big 3s. He's been steady and good at times. Also, he's cut down on his turnovers this season, which is a major plus. But it's clear that scouts and GMs continue to question whether either Andrew or his brother Aaron have a place in the NBA. Many scouts are skeptical that Andrew has the speed, quickness or unselfishness to play point guard in the pros. While Andrew compiled eight assists against the Bruins, there were times when he clearly missed open teammates and tried too hard to look for his own shot. Scouts also point to his hideous 29 percent shooting from behind the arc and 38 percent overall field goal mark and wonder why he's shooting at all.
"Look at the way he looks off guys who are open," one NBA GM said during one sequence in the second half. "I'd love to see how long that would last in a [NBA] summer league game. He hasn't proven he should ever be the guy on this team taking the shot."
Nov 19 Update: vs. KU: 10 points, 4 assists, 2 rebounds, 3-for-5 shooting in 19 minutes I think every scout agrees that Tyler Ulis is the best point guard on the Kentucky roster. But that isn't meant to disparage Harrison, who is probably better off as a 2-guard. He hit some big shots for Kentucky on the perimeter and at the basket. I'm not sure he's selling anyone that he's a point guard at the NBA level, but as a decent-sized 2-guard who can shoot and play some point in a pinch, he can make that case.
Nov 14 Update: Harrison was projected as a lottery pick as a freshman, but his so-so season really torpedoed his stock. By all accounts, he's gotten better over the summer -- he's leaner, quicker and more patient. But he's got a lot of damage control to do, and it doesn't help that after Kentucky's pro day, most NBA scouts came away claiming that Tyler Ulis was the better point guard. Harrison has great size (6-6, 210) for his position, and if he can show more explosion and more accuracy as a shooter, someone will take a chance on him. However, he's going to need a great season to move back into lock status for the first round.
Sept 12 Update: The most controversial snubs were the Harrison twins, Andrew Harrison and Aaron Harrison. Andrew was a preseason lottery pick last year and Aaron was ranked in our top 30. After slow starts, both players played much better toward the end of the season.
Why didn't they make the cut? Teams are concerned that while Andrew has great size, he doesn't have the explosive athletic ability to thrive at the point in the NBA. Aaron hit some huge shots for Kentucky in the tournament, but needs to turn into a 40 percent 3-point shooter this season. If Andrew can show off quickness and Aaron becomes a more consistent 3-point shooter, they should make the cut.
July 16 Update: Harrison was considered a potential lottery pick last summer. Teams love point guards with his size and NBA body. But Harrison struggled as a freshman shooting and playing the point. He turned the ball over a lot and also couldn't really get by people. He improved as the season went on, however, and helped UK back to the NCAA title game. If he shows major improvement as a sophomore, he'll start moving back up the board. I doubt he ever is considered a lottery talent again, but given the dearth of point guards in the draft, a mid-first-round selection isn't out of the question.
Apr 25 Update: Harrison was projected as a lottery pick coming into the season, but he struggled his freshman year running the point looking too slow to get by people and was just an average shooter. Scouts are intrigued with his size for his position and he did play much better in the second half of the year. A strong sophomore season at Kentucky could catapult him back into the mid first round in 2015.
Apr 2 Update: Andrew Harrison hasn't really shot the ball well, but he has been the floor general during this remarkable run, and after playing like he didn't have a clue as a point guard all season, he has made some tremendous plays for the Wildcats. There's no way he's going to get his draft stock back into the top 10 like it was at the beginning of the season, but more and more scouts see him as a potential steal in the late first round, especially those who love big point guards.
Mar 28 Update: Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton break down the draft prospects of all the Kentucky players using both analytics and scouting tools in our latest Eyes, Ears and Numbers column.
March 25 Update: Andrew Harrison, outplayed one of the top point guards in the country, Fred VanVleet, scoring 20 points with three assists for Kentucky. He also has 12 turnovers in the tournament, which means not everything is well, but when the Harrison twins play with the confidence they showed against the Shockers, they start to look more viable as first-round picks. I have both of them still in the early second round, but if Kentucky can win a few more games and they play well, they'll move back into the first. NBA scouts want to like them.
Feb 4 Update: After getting off to a very slow start, Harrison has shown flashes that he can be the type of player that NBA scouts hoped he would be. His 14-point, four-assist performance against Missouri might have been his second best of the year behind his big game a few weeks ago against Tennessee. "He's getting better," one scout said. "He was so lost at first. I'm not sure he's a point guard, but I think he can learn to become one. He's at his best when he's hunting for his own shot. For all the talk about bad body language, he's hung in there and he's starting to play the way he's capable of playing."
Jan 29 Update: Harrison had a breakout 26-point game against Tennessee two weeks ago, but the rest of his performances of late have reverted back to mediocre at best and pathetic at worst. His eight-point, one-assist game against LSU on Tuesday isn't going to get it done for NBA scouts. Harrison wants to leave Kentucky after this season and head to the NBA. However, he has to play much, much better to have a shot at working his way back into the lottery.
Dec 17 Update: Harrison continues to be on the Big Board more because of his reputation coming in than his actual performance on the court. The area where he's been most effective is getting to the line. In fact, he's taken 74 free throws compared to 71 shots. That's pretty amazing. But with so many talented players on Kentucky's roster, why isn't his assist total higher?
Nov. 27 Update: Harrison continues to struggle -- primarily against expectations. NBA scouts had him billed as a potential top-10 pick coming out of high school, but his play so far has been uneven. He has looked solid at times for Kentucky but has rarely looked like a lottery pick. With that said, Harrison made some key plays for Kentucky down the stretch in a last-minute comeback win against Cleveland State. Showing poise in tight games will be exactly how he works himself back into the top 10. The talent is clearly there, he just wasn't quite as ready as we thought.
Nov. 13 Update: Harrison's stats weren't horrendous, but when you factor in how Appling lit him up, it wasn't pretty. For months scouts had Harrison pegged as a potential top-5 pick. Scouts didn't see anything like that on Tuesday. He looked hesitant to take control of the team and, despite a few exceptional plays, just looked overmatched. We're not going to overreact -- young point guards under Calipari have a history of struggling out of the gate (see Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, Brandon Knight, Marquis Teague). In short, there's still a lot of time for him to turn things around. Given his shaky start, I might move him out of the Top 10 and replace him with Harris.
Nov. 12 Update: Harrison is going to direct traffic for the most talented team in America. That's a lot of pressure for a freshman, and the early reports out of Lexington have been a bit of a mixed bag. In his first game, he scored eight points, handed out five assists, but took just three shots in 29 minutes. In his second game, he improved with 13 points and three assists. Those aren't "wow" numbers, but there are so many weapons for Kentucky, Harrison doesn't have to do it all. The point guard position might be the weakest of any in the draft, and given Harrison's size and versatility, he still projects as a top-10 player. Harrison has a size and skill advantage over the Spartans' Keith Appling on Tuesday, but Appling is a talented fourth-year player who should really push Harrison.
Nov. 6 Update: In a normal year, an elite 6-foot-5, athletic point guard who can see the floor and score from anywhere on the court, playing for a program known for getting point guards drafted high, would be in the conversation for the No. 1 pick. However, this isn't a normal year and Harrison isn't playing on a normal team. There's so much talent in the draft and at Kentucky that Harrison's stock faltered a bit during the summer. If he can lead the Wildcats to a national championship, he, too, could hear his name called in the top five picks.
Sept. 9 Update: If the Bucks somehow can get their hands on one of those top three point guards, they'll do it. The team acquired Brandon Knight in a trade this summer, but he doesn't have the long-term potential of Exum, Smart or Harrison. Harrison has as much talent as Smart and Exum, but slides a bit because of questions about his attitude. If John Calipari can get him to mature -- remember when John Wall had all the same questions surrounding him before he played for Calipari at Kentucky? -- then the Bucks could potentially land the best point guard prospect in the draft.
Aug 13 Update: That's right. We have seven Wildcats in our top 30. That has never happened before. Harrison doesn't get the love his brother receives despite the fact in many ways, they are the same kind of player. Andrew's ability to play the point is what really sets him apart. Aaron is strong, athletic and can score from everywhere, too.
Aug 13 Update: Harrison is the last player in this group that scouts are convinced is a sure-fire All-Star. Blessed with size, athleticism and terrific court vision, Harrison is the prototypical point guard of the future. The only things pushing his ranking down are question marks about his attitude and work ethic. Kentucky head coach John Calipari has a way of righting wrongs, however, and most scouts feel that a season at Kentucky is exactly what Harrison needs to polish up his resume. He should be Smart's top competitor for the top point guard in the draft.
Apr 22 Update: Harrison is a huge point guard who finds great balance between scoring and dishing out assists. He is difficult to contain in the paint, has a great crossover and is a strong finisher at the rim. He is a competitor who loves a challenge. He had 19 points (10 on free throws) and led Team USA with five assists in the Hoop Summit game. He should battle Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart as the top point guard in the 2014 draft. Another potential top-5 pick, Andrew's twin brother, Aaron, also is a legit NBA prospect as a 2-guard and one to watch.
Dec 21 Update: NBA scouts love big point guards -- especially ones who are truly point guards. Add to the mix that he's playing for John Calipari (who coached both Derrick Rose and John Wall to the No. 1 pick), and you can understand that if anyone challenges Wiggins for the No. 1 pick, it might be Harrison.
Harrison is also an elite athlete, a fierce competitor and a natural leader. His ability to finish through contact at the rim is special. He's tough, physical and always is attacking the basket. His jump shot is also very solid for a player his age. You hear a lot of comps to Jason Kidd and Deron Williams when scouts talk about him.
40 Josh Richardson 21 SG 6-6 200 Tennessee Second Round Pick/Undrafted
June 18: Tennessee's Josh Richardson drew praise from scouts at Thursday's workout in Santa Barbara. He's long, athletic and can really defend. Teams were really impressed with him in the 3-on-3 workouts.
Chad Ford's Top 100 - 2015
Top 100 Draft Prospects
41 Vince Hunter 20 SF 6-8 208 UTEP Second Round Pick/Undrafted
June 18 Update: UTEP's Vince Hunter, another star at the combine, struggled in the drills. Mightily. But man, when the 3-on-3 started, he took over again and drew a lot of praise from scouts again. He's a game-changer defensively and keeps drawing comparisons to Gerald Wallace and Kenneth Faried. Hunter's draft stock has improved dramatically the past few weeks.
May 18 Update: Hunter showed off his elite athletic skills (37.5-inch maximum vertical, 3.26-second 3/4 sprint) and incredible motor on both Thursday and Friday. He ended up averaging 16.5 PPG and 10.5 RPG in his two games here. He was flying all over the court and drew some comps to Kenneth Faried from several scouts. His problem will be twofold. He lacks elite size for his position (just under 6-8 in shoes) and while he's long (6-11 wingspan), he's undersized at the 4 (8-8.5-inch standing reach). Still one GM felt he was worth a pick in the late first. "I'm pulling for him," the GM said. "I love how hard he plays and how he uses his athleticism. As he gets stronger and more developed, I think he could be a great energy guy off the bench in the NBA."
May 15 Update: In the second 5-on-5 game, UTEP's Vince Hunter led all scorers with 18 points on 8-for-16 shooting while recording 12 rebounds and three steals. He was especially dominant in the first half of the game and drew lots of wows from scouts. "If you're looking for guys with NBA upside, I thought him and Tokoto were the two that really popped," one GM said. "He played really hard, was everywhere on the floor, and he clearly has NBA athleticism. I'm just not sure whether he can shoot."
Apr 9 Update: Hunter has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Hunter wasn't highly ranked coming out of high school, but won freshman of the year honors in Conference USA last season and has shown major improvements across the board in 2014-15. Hunter is a 6-foot-8 combo forward who can guard wings and power forwards thanks to his explosive athleticism and length. Right now his calling card has been on the boards. He needs to get stronger and improve his shooting, but he's an intriguing player likely in the 40 to 60 range
Jan 13 Update: Hunter wasn't highly ranked coming out of high school, but won freshman of the year honors in Conference USA last season and has shown major improvements across the board in 2014-15.
Hunter is a 6-foot-8 combo forward who can guard wings and power forwards thanks to his explosive athleticism and length. Right now his calling card has been on the boards, where he's averaging 10.2 rebounds in 28 minutes per game this season. Hunter's 27.5 defensive rebounding rate is one of the best in the country.
He has had some big games against big teams this season. He dropped 20 points and 13 rebounds against Washington, 17 and 12 against Xavier, and 18 and 12 against Arizona before fouling out with eight minutes left in the game. Afterward, Arizona head coach Sean Miller told reporters Hunter was the best player Arizona had faced all season.
"The last 10 minutes of the first half, we just had a hard time with Hunter," Miller said. "I just don't see guys rebound his own miss like he did very often. He's really talented. He took over for about a 10-minute stretch in the first half in which we didn't have an answer for him."
Hunter already has 10 double-doubles on the season and has looked great so far in conference play. Scouts do have concerns about his overall lack of strength, and his shaky jump shot. Hunter takes 67 percent of his shots at the rim and is shooting 75 percent from there. However, he's hitting on 25 percent of his 2-point jumpers. He's also shooting only 58 percent from the line.
"He could have a great future in the NBA as a lockdown defender at the 3," one NBA scout said, "but he's going to have to show teams he can knock down a jumper. He's got an ugly stroke. I see signs it's getting better, but it still has a long ways to go."
42 Richaun Holmes 21 PF 6-10 243 Bowling Green Second Round Pick/Undrafted
May 18 Update: Holmes was the star of the Portsmouth Invitational and wasn't able to duplicate that performance in Chicago. However, he was very active defensively, blocking nine shots in two games and gave the bigs he matched up against a world of problems. Offensively he's pretty raw and he struggled to maintain his effort level in the second game, but he did enough, I think, to get drafted. This is an amazing feat for a guy who was not on the NBA radar screen six weeks ago.
May 15 Update: Holmes was the MVP of the Portsmouth Invitational and kept the momentum going in 17 minutes of play. He had six points, two rebounds and a day-high five blocked shots. "He's long, he's bouncy, he was everywhere," another GM said. "He really stood out on the defensive end of the court. He's a sleeper."
43 Mouhammadou Jaiteh 20 C 6-11 247 France Second Round Pick/Undrafted
May 18 Update:The expectations weren't super high for Jaiteh, but he exceeded them. And when you're a 6-10.5, 247-pound big man with a 7-3.25 wingspan, that's all you really need to do. Jaiteh ended up averaging 11 PPG and 9.5 RPG here. He plays under the rim and doesn't project as a dominant big man, but as a backup big? He sold a lot of NBA scouts that he could do that in the pros. And with teams searching for draft-and-stash candidates, he just might have punched his ticket to the late first round.
May 15 Update: Jaiteh also was impressive, scoring 12 points on 5-for-7 shooting and grabbing a game-high 10 rebounds. His physical presence in the paint was noted by multiple scouts. "He's much better than I thought he was," one GM said. "I think he's got legit size for the position and felt he had a soft touch around the basket."
Apr 13 Update: Jaiteh played in the 2013 Nike Hoop Summit and watched his draft stock tumble in the process. While he had a solid seven points and nine rebounds in the contest, his inability to finish above the rim (in fairness, he was playing against the likes of Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns in practice every day) turned scouts off. Now that we know Embiid (if he hadn't broken his foot) and Towns would likely both be No. 1 picks, maybe it's time to go back and re-think the scouting report on Jaiteh. He'll never be an elite player; he lacks the athleticism for that. But he might be a lot better than scouts have given him credit for in the past.
June 17 Update: Jaiteh withdrew from the draft after failing to secure a first round promise from a team.
Apr 29 Update: Jaiteh certainly had some hype coming into the Nike Hoop Summit -- especially after he measured 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan. But his play on the court left something to be desired. He's got the NBA body and is a good rebounder, but Jaiteh plays below the rim and struggles with length and athleticism of the other players on his own roster. He's a mechanical offensive player to boot. He ended the Nike Hoop Summit in pedestrian fashion with seven points and nine rebounds.
April 20 Update: Jaiteh might have had his biggest draft moment on Monday when he measured 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan. That alone can get you drafted. He has an NBA body, is a good rebounder and is putting up solid numbers (albeit in a second-division French league), but there are plenty of reasons to be concerned.
The take on Jaiteh from the summit practices: He isn't an elite athlete, he plays rather mechanically, and his basketball IQ seems fairly low. In practices he's been outplayed by Kansas recruit Joel Embiid and Kentucky recruit Karl Towns all week.
A strong game against Team USA on Saturday could propel him into the first round, but right now he's on the outside looking in.
Aug 15 Update: Jaiteh has a NBA body, size and length to play in the NBA some day. His defensive game is ahead of his offensive one right now, but many European scouts feel like he could crack the first round someday.
44 Jordan Mickey 20 PF 6-8 238 LSU Second Round Pick/Undrafted
May 18 Update: Mickey was a shot-blocking monster at the camp, recording 12 blocks in two games. That shouldn't come as a huge surprise to NBA scouts. He averaged 3.3 blocks per game in his first two seasons at LSU. He's gotten stronger and even showed off a little midrange game at the camp. While he's undersized for his ideal position at center (6-8 with an 8-10 standing reach), his athleticism (37.5-inch max vertical) and length (7-3.25 wingspan) make him an intriguing get in the second round. A few scouts even had Mickey cracking the late first.
May 15 Update: Mickey had 17 points on 7-for-12 shooting, eight rebounds, two steals and a crazy eight blocked shots in 29 minutes.
"I wish he was a little taller, but he was a monster defensively today, and I think everyone knows he has that ability," one GM said. "But while he can guard 4s in the NBA, I'm not sure he has the offense to play that position in the pros. But he definitely made us want to take another look."
Mar 31 Update: Mickey will declare for the 2015 NBA Draft. Mickey is a long, athletic shot-blocker who after a strong freshman season was considered a potential late-first-round pick by some scouts. However, scouts didn't see major progress between his freshman and sophomore campaigns. His scoring average went up while his shooting percentages and turnovers went down. While Mickey projects as an elite shot-blocker, his lack of strength and so-so offensive game project him as a second-round pick at best. Look for him to fall in the 45-to-undrafted range.
Mar 18 Update: Mickey is one of the best shot-blockers in the country and has great length for his position. However, he lacks strength and focus. When he's locked in, he can be very good, but that can vary wildly from game to game.
July 16 Update: Before Mickey stole their affection, scouts started the season very excited about Jarrell Martin, another LSU freshman. Mickey's long, he's an explosive finisher around the basket (he shot 77 percent at the rim), and he's a terrific shot-blocker. He also showed off an effective midrange game, shooting 39 percent on 2-pointers. If he gets stronger and adds range to his jump shot, he'll move up the board.
March 21 Update: Mickey had a terrific freshman season and is now firmly planted on NBA radar screens. He's a great athlete with explosive leaping ability and a very good shot-blocker. He's a bit undersized for his position at the 4, but his solid midrange game has scouts wondering whether he might be able to transition to the 3. He needs to work on his 3-point jumper over the summer.
45 Robert Upshaw 21 C 7-0 258 Washington Second Round Pick/Undrafted
June 18 Update: Upshaw, on talent, is a lottery pick. He's huge (he has the longest wingspan and second-longest standing reach of anyone in the draft) and is the best shot-blocker in the draft (this season he averaged 4.5 BPG in 25 MPG).
Apr 29 Update: Upshaw has the talent of a top-15 pick. But after getting kicked out of both Fresno State and Washington, he's got a lot to answer for. Background checks and how he handles his interviews will be key. The upside is clearly there. But will teams take a risk on him in the first round?
Jan 28 Update: Upshaw has been one of the fastest risers on our draft board this season. He's been a dominating shot-blocking and rebounding force, and looked like he was set up to make a move into the first round. However, on Monday, Washington announced that it dismissed Upshaw from the program for a violation of team rules. This comes after Upshaw was dismissed from Fresno State in 2013 for violating team rules as well. The talent is clearly there, but it's also clear that Upshaw might need help, and those questions over his dismissals should keep him planted in the second round, where players require less financial risk or commitment.
Jan 6 Update: Upshaw leads the NCAA in blocked shots despite averaging just 23 minutes per game for Washington. That's a remarkable stat. So, too, is the data that shows he blocks one out of every six shots an opponent takes when he's on the floor. Yes, there are off-the-court concerns. Yes, he lacks much in the way of polish on the offensive end. But he's got NBA size and length (a reported 7-5.5 wingspan) and projects as an elite rim-protector. Teams are paying very close attention.
Dec 31 Update: Upshaw has been a fast riser on the board. He's big, athletic and he's putting up impressive numbers coming off the bench for Washington. He actually leads every center in PER. Questions about his off-court issues and motivation will rise come draft time, but if he continues playing like this all season, he's going to keep moving up the board.
Dec 12 Update: Upshaw doesn't look like an NBA prospect statistically at this point because his freshman season at Fresno State was so poor. He shot just 38 percent on 2-pointers against relatively weak opposition. After a season on the sideline as a transfer, though, a totally different Upshaw has helped the Huskies to a 7-0 start. He leads the NCAA by blocking better than 1 in 5 2-point attempts while he's on the floor, which has translated into Washington ranking third in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense, per KenPom.com.
We still need to see how Upshaw responds facing Pac-12 opposition night in and night out. Opponents will be better prepared for his 7-5½ wingspan when they face him a second time. Scouts will also have questions about why Upshaw was dismissed from the Fresno State program, which led him to transfer. What are you hearing about his NBA potential?
Ford: Whenever you mention a 7-footer with a 7-5½ wingspan who blocks shots, scouts are intrigued. The fact that he ranks second in the country in college PER (behind Myles Turner of Texas) also stands out. He's now shooting 68 percent at the rim and 44 percent on his 2-point jumpers, and he's been a shot-blocking monster this season with 4.6 blocks per game in just 17.7 minutes per game.
But there are all sorts of questions about character and work ethic and whether his defensive prowess will make up for his lack of a dominant post game. In his most recent game, against San Diego State, he posted just seven points on 3-for-7 shooting. He's definitely a second-round prospect, but he's going to have to make another big leap in Pac-12 play to crack the first round.
46 J.P. Tokoto 21 SF 6-6 196 North Carolina Second Round Pick/Undrafted
May 18 Update: Tokoto also was terrific at the combine. Everyone knows about his elite length (6-10 wingspan), athleticism (40-inch vertical) and ability to guard three positions. But most important, he hit shots at the combine -- something he seemed reluctant and incapable of doing at North Carolina. Scouts will dig deeper to see if it's a fluke, but after Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, there isn't a better perimeter defender in the draft. If he can hit enough shots to make defenses honest, NBA folks think he's worth a look in the late 20s to 30s.
May 15 Update: Tokoto showed off his elite athletic ability, skying high for several terrific dunks, hitting a jump shot, and playing terrific defense (three steals in 24 minutes). He had 13 points on 6-for-6 shooting, 5 rebounds and 2 assists. "He really popped," another GM said. "Loved his energy and athleticism and loved that he was confident in his jumper. He's got things to work on, but if you wanted to like him because of his elite defense and high basketball IQ, he gave you plenty to work with today."
Apr 8 Update: Tokoto's decision to declare for the draft is a bit of a surprise. While he possesses elite athleticism, is an amazing on-ball defender and sees the floor very well for a forward, his lack of a jump shot and his inability to get his own shot have regulated him strictly to second-round status. He'll try to position himself as a lock-down defender at the next level and hope it gets someone to bite in the second round. Look for him to go in the 30-to-50 range.
Mar 17 Update: Tokoto is another potential second-rounder. Offensively he's not very dominant, but he's an elite athlete and perimeter defender who can guard multiple positions on the floor.
Dec 22 Update: J.P. Tokoto intrigued a number of scouts with athleticism and ability to see the floor. "He's the best passer on North Carolina," one GM said. "I just wish he had a jump shot or a handle. He's got an unusual game. Great athlete, great passer, not much else. Not sure where he fits."
47 Nikola Milutinov 20 C 6-11 220 Serbia Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Apr 13 Update: He has size, he's mobile, has strong footwork and excellent fundamentals in the post. He doesn't use his jumper the way he should and he lacks a great motor, but we're talking about a serviceable 7-footer who could be worth a look in the second round.
48 Larry Nance Jr. 22 PF 6-9 227 Wyoming Second Round Pick/Undrafted
June 18 Update: Connaughton is now drawing much closer attention after a terrific draft combine. Scouts were watching his every movement in the workout on Thursday night. With his feathered hair and the short shorts and shamrock tank-top he was wearing, he's a bushy mustache away from being the prototypical player the Celtics should draft and watch rise to Brian Scalabrine-type popularity in Boston. This just has to happen.
May 18 Update: Connaughton began the week sitting just outside the second round (71 in our Top 100 coming into the combine), but moved up dramatically after a stellar week in athletic testing -- 44-inch maximum vertical plus excellent scores on both the 3/4 run (3.2 seconds) and the lane agility drill (3.08 seconds). His interviews were also off the charts and multiple NBA teams were convinced that, if given the opportunity, he'd choose basketball over professional baseball (Connaughton was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles). Connaughton didn't do much in the first game but exploded with 18 points on 4-for-8 shooting from the 3-point line in Game 2. While he lacks elite size for his position, his combination of athleticism, shooting ability, toughness and rebounding make him a very, very intriguing pick in the early second round.
50 Jonathan Holmes 22 SF 6-9 242 Texas Second Round Pick/Undrafted
May 15 Update: In the spot-up shooting drills, Stanford's Chasson Randle sported the best numbers from the NBA 3-point line, shooting 18-for-25. Texas' Jonathan Holmes and Murray State's Cameron Payne were second at 17-for-25. Virginia's Justin Anderson, who was a lights-out shooter at Virginia before suffering a wrist injury late this past season, was a disappointing 9-for-25.
Mar 16 Update: Holmes started the season strong but struggled in Big 12 play and lost virtually all of his draft momentum. He'll likely be playing pro ball in Europe or the D-League.
51 Michael Frazier II 21 SG 6-5 199 Florida Second Round Pick/Undrafted
May 18 Update: In a league that emphasizes shooting ability, Frazier is one of the most accomplished shooters in the draft. He ended up going 4-for-9 from 3 in two games, and averaged 15.5 PPG at the combine. His measurements (roughly 6-5 in shoes with a 6-8 wingspan) were solid for the position and if you've been following Kevin Pelton all year, you know Frazier tests out as a top-20 pick from an analytics point of view. He definitely earned himself some buzz with his play in Chicago and made a case for consideration in the late first round.
Mar 26 Update: Frazier will reportedly declare for the 2015 NBA Draft. Frazier began drawing serious interest from NBA scouts during his sophomore season when he averaged 12 points per game and shot a terrific 45 percent from three. However, his game stagnated a bit as a junior. His scoring averaged dipped slightly and his 3-point percentage slipped to 38 percent. Not terrible numbers, but not the normal progression scouts typically want to see either. He lacks elite size for his position and is a bit one-dimensional, but his 3-point shooting will get him serious looks in the second round. Look for him to land in the 40 to 60 range in the draft.
Oct 22 Update: Frazier is the biggest discrepancy between my projections and the scouting consensus at the top of the board. He's generally seen as a second-round pick, and I have him rated in the lottery. No returning player in the Top 100 has a better projected true shooting percentage than Frazier's 57 percent mark, and nobody is all that close (Utah's Delon Wright is second at 54.3 percent).
In a league that values shooting more than ever, Frazier's 45.2 percent career accuracy from the NCAA 3-point line and high volume (his 118 3s ranked fifth in the nation last season) alone should make him a viable rotation player.
Ford: I'm puzzled as well, Kevin, as to why scouts aren't as high on Frazier. I did a second round of interviews with scouts after seeing your rankings and besides the predictable "He's undersized" (he measured just 6-foot-4 in shoes at USA Basketball) and "He doesn't create his own shot well" (Frazier is primarily a jump-shooter), there wasn't much there.
I'm surprised because scouts usually value 3-point shooters very highly and Frazier is one of the best in college basketball. I'm also surprised because Frazier is a very good athlete and his 6-9 wingspan negates some of the questions about his lack of height. Plus, he's a very solid defender. He also is poised to be the primary scoring weapon for the Gators this season, which should mean he'll put up much bigger numbers this campaign. Overall, I think he's poised to be a potential breakout player this season.
April 2 Update: Frazier is also intriguing. He set Florida's record for 3-pointers in a season, which is an impressive feat considering some of the shooters the Gators have had. NBA teams love guys who can really shoot the basketball and are good athletes. Frazier isn't likely to declare, but if he does, he's got the rep as one of the best shooters in the draft and could easily sneak into the second round.
Mar 17 Update: Frazier will have a spot thanks to his terrific 3-point shooting. He has deep range and a quick release and incredible accuracy. There is always a spot in the NBA for players like that.
52 Tyler Harvey 21 SG 6-4 181 Eastern Wash. Second Round Pick/Undrafted
June 18 Update: Eastern Washington's Tyler Harvey bounced back from a rocky showing at the draft combine by shooting the ball much better at the workout Thursday evening. There are a lot of concerns about his ability to score on elite competition, but if he can do it in workouts, he'll move back up. Scouts want to like shooters right now.
May 18 Update: I've been a Harvey fan over the past few months. Teams loved him in interviews and wanted to see the next Stephen Curry out there. Unfortunately for Harvey, a combination of poor shot selection and some shots just not falling led to a pretty bad 5-for-22 shooting performance. He was just 4-for-15 from 3-point range and often looked overwhelmed by the bigger, more athletic guards he faced. I still think he's got a shot to get drafted, but the buzz that he had coming into the camp dampened considerably.
May 15 Update: It's pretty hard to hurt yourself in a camp like this. But there was some negativity around the poor shooting performances by Kentucky's Aaron Harrison and Eastern Washington's Tyler Harvey. Both players are selling themselves as shooters, but Harrison went 1-for-6 from the field (1-for-3 from 3) and Harvey was 3-for-13 from the field (2-for-9 from three).
"They both were trying too hard and took some bad, quick shots," one GM said. "You want to come out and show what you havem but in this case, I think their aggressiveness hurt them both."
Apr 1 Update: Harvey has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Harvey is one of the best scorers in the country and is especially lethal as a 3-point shooter, hitting 41 percent of the 3s he took despite taking nearly 10 triples per game. He also possesses a high basketball IQ, sees the floor well and knows how to create his own shot. On the downside, he's a bit undersized for his position and lacks elite NBA athleticism. Scouts have been warming up to him all season and it's not out of the question that, with great workouts, he ends up in the mid-to-late first round. Right now Harvey's draft stock is all over the place. Some NBA scouts have him as high as No. 15 while others have him in the 40s. It may take a little more time to totally gauge it, but if I were to bet, I think he lands somewhere in the first round.
Mar 23 Update: Harvey proved he could hang with just about anyone again in an opening round loss to Georgetown. The Hoyas went all out to stop Harvey and he still managed 27 points on 9-for-20 shooting and hit six of the 12 3-pointers he took. He also turned the ball over just twice despite tons of pressure from Georgetown. It's sacrilegious to compare him to a young Stephen Curry given what Curry is doing right now in the NBA, but there are enough similarities that teams will give him a long look in the first round. Harvey graduates this spring, so he could make the leap to the NBA if he wants to. Given how hot his draft stock is right now, it probably would be a very good idea.
Mar 19 Update: At 6-foot-4 and 185 pounds, Harvey doesn't have elite size or explosive athleticism, but what he does well he does really well. He is a lethal shooter, especially off the bounce. He has unlimited range on his jumper and he's fearless in letting it fly. He's done his work against several high-major teams. This season, he dropped 24 points on SMU, 25 on Indiana, 21 on Washington and 31 on Cal. He can score against top competition. Add in a really nice floater, quickness with the ball, and a high basketball IQ, and there's a place for him in the NBA.
I don't know if it's in the first round, but after seeing Stephen Curry and C.J. McCollum turn NCAA heroics into lottery picks, I don't think it's entirely out of the question. If Harvey goes off against Georgetown in the opening round, there will be major buzz. With the success of the Splash Brothers in Golden State, having deadly long-range shooters is the new trend in the NBA.
Kevin, you were on Harvey before anyone this this season. Where does he rate now on your board?
Pelton: Solidly in the second round. Harvey's WARP projection ranks 59th now, but if he declares (Harvey is a fourth-year junior with one year of eligibility remaining) he'll surely end up in the 40s on the final draft board. In addition to everything else you mentioned, Harvey's low turnover rate is impressive statistically.
I've had Eastern Washington pegged as a possible NCAA tournament sleeper all season. Besides Harvey, they have a productive college big man, Venky Jois, whose game doesn't figure to translate to the next level. The Eagles got a favorable draw playing in nearby Portland against the Hoyas, who will have to travel all the way across the country. There's a decent chance of Eastern continuing Georgetown's streak of losing to double-digit seeds, and that would do wonders for Harvey's profile.
Jan 29 Update: I'm reaching back a few weeks for my sleeper. Harvey was a big factor in Eastern's 8-1 start, which included a win at Indiana, and I saw him play well against both Washington and Seattle University in December. Teammate Venky Jois actually rates as slightly better this season, but Harvey's size (he's listed at 6-foot-4, 185 pounds) and shooting ability give him the better chance to make the leap to the NBA. I have him rated solidly in the second round. Has his name come up from scouts?
Ford: Well, you do love those Washington players don't you? And this time, you made me have to go do some extra homework. He's not in our Top 100, and after talking with scouts, I'm not sure he's in many of theirs, either. However, maybe they are sleeping on him. He's clearly a lights-out 3-point shooter. He's shooting 48.6 percent from beyond the arc, and 62 percent of all of the shots he's taking are from there. He's also shooting a respectable 44 percent on his 2-point jumpers. I'm going to make the case in the next section that the NBA is obsessed right now with sharp shooters. So ... let's see if you get NBA scouts scrambling.
53 Norman Powell 22 SG 6-4 215 UCLA Second Round Pick/Undrafted
June 18 Update: Powell rose up the draft boards after a terrific summer showing at LeBron's camp. His newfound jumper, complementing his elite explosive athletic ability, has led to a lot of talk that Powell could end up being a late-first-round pick.
Mar 19 Update: Powell's draft stock rose considerably this summer after playing well in the summer camps, but he has been a mild disappointment this season. He's a terrific athlete, an elite defender, and he has been much more aggressive scoring, but his jump shot and decision-making are still shaky. He's likely a second-rounder, but the days of being mentioned as a first-rounder seem to be over.
Dec 22 Update: The rest of UCLA's squad was awful. Norman Powell, a senior, was just 1-for-13 from the field and looked completely lost. Big man Tony Parker was completely overwhelmed by the UK front line and went just 1-for-10 from the field. Redshirt freshman Isaac Hamilton had 14 points on 6-for-14 shooting but took too many bad shots in the first half. All of UCLA's players looked completely outmatched against Kentucky. That could be especially devastating for Powell, as coming into the game some scouts saw him as a potential first-rounder.
Nov 26 Update: Powell was a great athlete and defender his first three years at UCLA, but he surprised a number of scouts this summer with a much more aggressive offensive game and even a 3-point shot. The biggest question coming into the season was whether Powell was the guy we'd seen in his first three years at UCLA or the one scouts saw in the summer. So far, he's looked like the summer Powell. Through four games he's averaging 21.3 PPG and shooting an impressive 52 percent from 3. He's a little undersized for his position, but his elite athleticism makes up for a lot of it. He could be a Tony Allen-type pro if he can maintain consistency all year.
Oct 8 Update: I see that Powell is unranked on your board, Kevin. I can't really hold that against you. He wasn't on my board, either, until scouts started going nuts for him after a strong performance at the Adidas Nations camp. Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson dominated the ball for two seasons, and Zach LaVine took some shots from him last year as well. With all three gone to the NBA, can Powell have a coming-out party as a senior?
We've always known he's one of the most explosive athletes in college basketball, and though a bit undersized, he has great length for his position and can lock down either position defensively, but there's never been much to get excited about when it comes to Powell creating offense. I've heard a few scouts throwing out Tony Allen comps, but Allen was a terrific scorer in college. Is there any precedent, Kevin, for someone who hasn't wowed in his first three years of college, blowing up as a senior and then turning into a terrific NBA player? Color me a little skeptical on this one.
Pelton: Right there with you, Chad. One of the overwhelming takeaways from my research in college-to-NBA projection is that earlier seasons are more telling than later ones. Players who come on late in their careers tend to disappoint in the pros. Wesley Johnson is a good example. I will say Powell was dramatically improved as a junior, but in a role where his usage rate was below average. If Powell can maintain much of his efficiency while ramping up his usage, his chances will look much better. Still, this isn't a bet I'd take.
Sept. 9 Update: We had to put one senior on the list, didn't we? Powell has been known for his elite, explosive athletic ability and tough defense for three seasons at UCLA. But this summer, at Adidas Nations, he showed a more complete offensive arsenal. Everyone knows he can dunk, but he was hitting floaters and knocking down 3s. Several scouts thought he was the best player in the camp. This year's UCLA team will be his to lead. If he has a breakout season, he should hear his name called in the first round.
54 Terran Petteway 22 SG 6-6 209 Nebraska Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Apr 16 Update: Petteway has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. Petteway has been a scoring machine the past two year?s at Nebraska, but has struggled with his efficiency ? especially this season when he shot under 40 percent from the field and just 31 percent from three. While scouts love his attack mentality, he can sometimes play out of control. Look for him to go in the 45 to undrafted range.
March 17 Update: Petteway is a versatile, aggressive scorer who can knock down shots from the three or by attacking the rim. He plays with an unbelievable motor, but that can also be his downfall as he can get caught up trying to do too much. He's old for his draft class which limits his upside somewhat, but one of the more intriguing sleepers on this list.
55 Arturas Gudaitis 21 C 6-10 225 Lithuania Second Round Pick/Undrafted
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56 Alan Williams 22 PF 6-8 261 UC Santa Barbara Second Round Pick/Undrafted
May 18 Update: Williams did what Williams always does. He beasted on the boards (22 rebounds in two days), carved out space and showed surprisingly nimble feat for such a heavy guy. He's undersized (6-8.25 in shoes with an 8-10.5 standing reach) for his ideal position at center, and he's not an explosive athlete (28.5-inch max vertical), but rebounding translates in the NBA and he might be the best pure rebounder in the draft.
Dec 19 Update: He's off to another great start with six double-doubles in nine games, including 22 points, 13 rebounds and 4 blocks in a 10-point loss at Kansas. I suspect Williams is in the top 100 almost entirely because of how well he grades out statistically. His WARP projection ranks 13th, but I bet there are some teams who don't have Williams in their top 100.
April 30 Update: Williams had a very productive junior season and intrigues scouts with his ability to score in the post and rebound. But his lack of size, elite athleticism and efficiency are all red flags. If he gets in better shape and is more efficient as a senior, he'll get some looks, most likely in the second round.
57 Quinn Cook 22 PG 6-2 179 Duke Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 19 Update: Cook shares backcourt responsibility with Jones and is having a dominant season. He, too, takes care of the ball, is shooting 40 percent from 3 and may find a way to sneak into the second round.
Nov 18 Update: vs. MSU: 19 points, 6 assists, 0 turnovers, 7-for-12 shooting from the field
I've got to hand it to my guy Kevin Pelton. He pegged Cook as one of the top draft prospects in the ACC in our Ford-Pelton series and Cook lived up to that in a big way on Tuesday. He was especially dominant in the first half and kept doing all the things that scouts like about him. He shot the ball well (3-for-4 from 3-point range) and he didn't turn it over. No one is saying that Cook will be a first-round pick, but he's a decent choice as a backup point guard in the second round. "He really opened my eyes tonight," one GM said. "There's more there than I thought."
Oct 8 Update: Among ACC players who used plays at an above-average rate, Cook had the best offensive rating, per KenPom.com. He shot a solid 37.1 percent from 3-point range and had an assist-to-turnover ratio near 3.0. That sounds ideal to me for a backup point guard, which is what Cook's NBA role would almost certainly be, given his small stature.
Ford: I think the big skepticism among NBA scouts is that, as a senior, they expect Cook to back up freshman Tyus Jones, the top-ranked point guard in the high school class of 2014. But you're right in pointing out that Cook has been very underrated the past two years. Sometimes it's hard when a player is solid all around, but doesn't do any one thing that stands out. Combine that with the fact that every year he's overshadowed by a few elite players -- Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood last season and Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Jones this season -- and it's hard for Cook to stand out. Had he played for a slightly less prestigious program, he might have stood out much more. I think he's got a good shot at the second round if he plays well this season, but I'm skeptical he'll be a first-rounder.
58 Aaron White 22 PF 6-9 220 Iowa Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 19 Update: White is a unique prospect who thrives on running the floor and getting to the rim, where he shoots a terrific 72 percent. He's a very good athlete, can initiate the offense from the high post and plays with a great basketball IQ. His lack of a great jumper (26 percent on his 2-point jumpers, 33 percent from 3) are the biggest red flags for him now.
59 Daniel Diez 22 SF 6-8 220 Spain Second Round Pick/Undrafted
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60 Branden Dawson 22 SF 6-7 230 Michigan State Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 23 Update: When the good Branden Dawson shows up, as he did this weekend, he looks like a legit NBA player with a great body, elite athleticism, the ability to defend multiple positions and a knack for attacking the rim. He scored 15 points, grabbed nine rebounds and four blocks against Virginia on Sunday along with 14 points, six rebounds and two blocks against Georgia. Will more heroics in the Sweet 16 be enough to salvage his draft stock? I don't think he's in the first round conversation anymore, but he could still get looks in the second.
Mar 18 Update: If Dawson played as well all season as he did in the Big Ten tournament, he'd be a lottery pick. Blessed with elite strength and athleticism, he can be a beast on both ends of the floor when he's focused. When he loses focus, he just disappears. There's been so much disappearing over the years that scouts have really lost faith in him. But his physical tools are so good that a great tournament could convince them to give him a second chance.
Nov 19 Update: vs. Duke: 18 points, 9 rebounds, 8-for-10 shooting in 29 minutes
Scouts have liked Dawson since his freshman year, but injuries really have held back his skill development. He's still, essentially, a power forward in the body of a small forward. But he does use his athleticism and motor to make an impact on both ends. I couldn't find any scouts ready to anoint him a first-round pick, but lots of teams thought he'd be an interesting pick in the second round.
Sept 12 Update: The senior from Michigan State will carry a heavy load for the Spartans this season. He has an NBA body and athletic ability, and when he's focused, he can be awesome on both ends of the floor. But teams are worried about his jump shot and lack of consistency. He's going to need an Adreian Payne-type breakout season to erase the first two disappointing seasons from scouts' minds.
April 15 Update: Dawson announced he will return to the Spartans for his senior season. Dawson has always been an intriguing prospect to NBA scouts. Blessed with an NBA body and elite athletic ability, he has the potential to be a No. 1 pick. However, injuries and the lack of a jump shot have kept him from cracking the first round. His play was very strong at the end of the season, and if he can have an Adreian Payne-like senior year, he could move his way into the first round.
Apr 2 Update: Dawson was a monster for the Spartans in wins against Harvard and Virginia. Michigan State wouldn't have been in the Elite Eight without his toughness in the paint. But the team really kept the ball from him all game against Michigan, and he ended up with just five points on three shots. While teams don't expect huge offensive numbers from him in the NBA, his ability to play lockdown defense at three positions in the pros gives him strong appeal in the second round.
Mar 25 Update: Dawson also had his best game of the season on Saturday, pouring in 26 points on 12-for-15 shooting with nine rebounds for the Spartans. He has an NBA body, flaunts athleticism and he can be a tenacious defender when he wants to be. Scouts have seen him as a borderline first-round pick for several years and a continued strong performance in the tourney could make him a lock.
Nov. 13 Update
Mar 19 Update
Oct 25 Update: An ACL injury in March derailed a solid freshman season for Dawson. Despite the setback, scouts still believe he has a chance to be special. He's a very good athlete, crashes the boards, can guard three positions on the floor and has a motor that just won't stop. He has a toughness and physicality to his game that every NBA scout loves.
To make the next step, he needs to keep improving his jump shot, add a 3-pointer to his arsenal and develop a stronger handle if he wants to be a 3 in the NBA. The talent is there to be a Kawhi Leonard-type player at the next level. With Draymond Green off to the NBA, this season Dawson should have plenty of chances to show it off.
Nov 3 Update: The Big Ten freshman class certainly isn't loaded with prospects, but Dawson has a chance to be special. He's a physical player who reminds some scouts of a young Kawhi Leonard. He's a very good athlete, crashes the boards, can guard three positions on the floor and has a motor that just won't stop.
Dawson has already impressed Tom Izzo in practices and scrimmages with his intensity. He needs to keep improving his jump shot, and at 6-foot-6 he's a bit undersized, but the scouts who know him think he's the sort of player that should be playing in the NBA someday.
61 Michael Qualls 21 SG 6-5 201 Arkansas Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Apr 15 Update: Qualls announced he'll declare for the 2015 NBA Draft. Qualls has ...more
62 Cady Lalanne 23 PF 6-10 250 Massachusetts Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 18 Update: Lalanne is a long, athletic shot-blocker who racked up nine double-doubles ...more
63 Brandon Ashley 20 PF 6-9 228 Arizona Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Apr 8 Update: Ashley has declared for the 2015 NBA Draft. He has the ...more
64 Chris Walker 20 PF 6-10 208 Florida Second Round Pick/Undrafted
May 18 Update: If anyone was written off this weekend it was Walker. After ...more
65 Aaron Harrison 20 SG 6-6 209 Kentucky Second Round Pick/Undrafted
May 18 Update: As steady of a performance as his brother Andrew had, we ...more
66 Dez Wells 23 SG 6-4 209 Maryland Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 16 Update: Wells is intriguing. He's not a volume shooter from the perimeter, ...more
67 Treveon Graham 21 SG 6-6 219 VCU Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 17 Update: He's tough, physical, can shoot the 3 and attack the basket, ...more
68 Wesley Saunders 22 SG 6-6 220 Harvard Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 23 Update: Saunders has been lighting up the Ivy League all year, but ...more
69 Kenneth Smith 22 PG 6-3 180 Louisiana Tech Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Nov 14 Update: Don't sleep on Smith. Several NBA scouts tried to entice him ...more
70 Keifer Sykes 21 PG 6-0 167 Wisc. Green Bay Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Aug 30 Update: Sykes was a standout at Chris Paul's Elite Guard camp this ...more
71 Briante Weber 22 PG 6-2 165 VCU Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 17 Update: Briante Weber would also be on this list had he not ...more
72 T.J. McConnell 23 PG 6-2 188 Arizona Second Round Pick/Undrafted
May 16 Update: McConnell helped himself in Chicago. There wasn't much there in the ...more
73 Corey Hawkins 23 SG 6-2 192 UC Davis Second Round Pick/Undrafted
There are currently no comments available for Corey Hawkins.
74 Darrun Hilliard II 22 SG 6-6 215 Villanova Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 18 Update: Hilliard is a crafty scorer who doesn't do any one thing ...more
75 Guillem Vives 21 PG 6-4 180 Spain Second Round Pick/Undrafted
June 13 Update: An unheralded prospect who emerged as Joventut's starting point guard, Vives ...more
76 Sir'Dominic Pointer 23 SF 6-6 196 St. John's Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 19 Update: Pointer had a breakout senior season. He doubled his point production, ...more
77 Wayne Blackshear 23 SG 6-5 200 Louisville Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 18 Update: Blackshear has been on the NBA radar since his freshman season ...more
78 Derrick Marks 21 SG 6-3 206 Boise State Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 18 Update: Marks is having a crazy good senior season, averaging 19.3 PPG ...more
79 Juwan Staten 23 PG 6-1 190 West Virginia Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 16 Update: Staten got some looks as a late first-round pick after his ...more
80 Trevor Lacey 23 SG 6-3 210 NC State Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Apr 15 Update: Lacey, a transfer from Alabama, had a strong junior season for ...more
81 Seth Tuttle 22 PF 6-8 240 Northern Iowa Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 18 Update: Tuttle is one of the most versatile forwards in the country. ...more
82 Shannon Scott 22 PG 6-1 185 Ohio State Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 17 Update: Scott is a steady point guard who has taken a backseat ...more
83 Tyler Haws 24 SG 6-5 200 BYU Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 17 Update: Haws is one of the best scorers in the country. He's ...more
84 Isaac Fotu 21 PF 6-8 235 New Zealand Second Round Pick/Undrafted
There are currently no comments available for Isaac Fotu.
85 Josh Smith 23 C 6-9 320 Georgetown Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 19 Update: Smith has the size and basketball skills to be an NBA ...more
86 D.J. Newbill 23 SG 6-6 210 Penn State Second Round Pick/Undrafted
There are currently no comments available for D.J. Newbill.
87 Ziga Dimec 22 C 6-11 255 Slovenia Second Round Pick/Undrafted
May 11 Update: Dimec is scoring a number of NBA workouts leading up to ...more
88 Rade Zagorac 19 SF 6-7 190 Serbia Second Round Pick/Undrafted
There are currently no comments available for Rade Zagorac.
89 Nenad Miljenovic 22 PG 6-4 170 Serbia Second Round Pick/Undrafted
There are currently no comments available for Nenad Miljenovic.
90 Marcus Thornton 22 SG 6-3 178 William & Mary Second Round Pick/Undrafted
May 17 Update: Thornton is a terrific athlete and a great shooter, but his ...more
91 Mateusz Ponitka 21 SG 6-5 205 Poland Second Round Pick/Undrafted
There are currently no comments available for Mateusz Ponitka .
92 Andre Hollins 22 PG 6-1 200 Minnesota Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Oct 21 Update: A theme that's emerging as we go conference-by-conference is that veteran ...more
93 Le'Bryan Nash 23 SF 6-7 230 Oklahoma State Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 17 Update: Nash was a top-10 recruit coming out of high school that ...more
94 Nikola Radicevic 21 PG 6-4 195 Serbia Second Round Pick/Undrafted
There are currently no comments available for Nikola Radicevic.
95 Levi Randolph 22 SG 6-5 185 Alabama Second Round Pick/Undrafted
There are currently no comments available for Levi Randolph.
96 Ryan Boatright 22 PG 5-11 170 Connecticut Second Round Pick/Undrafted
There are currently no comments available for Ryan Boatright.
97 TaShawn Thomas 22 PF 6-8 240 Oklahoma Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 18 Update: Thomas, who had a solid senior season, is a versatile forward ...more
98 D'Angelo Harrison 21 SG 6-3 209 St. John's Second Round Pick/Undrafted
Mar 19 Update: Harrison has averaged roughly 17 PPG in his career at St. ...more
99 Satnam Singh Bharama 19 C 7-2 290 IMG Academy Second Round Pick/Undrafted
There are currently no comments available for Satnam Singh Bharama.
100 Jarvis Threatt 22 PG 6-2 170 NBDL Second Round Pick/Undrafted
There are currently no comments available for Jarvis Threatt.
All Im saying is how you gonna say wing player can't shoot when they shot over 50% from the field? Is there even another wing in the draft that shot over 50%?
Hope he gets put on somewhere but I doubt it. D-Lo Harrison worked out with the Mavs as well
