- Mar 31, 2011
- 80,368
- 131,662
He'll never start for anyone, but he can definitely facilitate an offense and can shoot. I could see him working hard enough to have a spot in the league for a long time.
The NBA Draft Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by pmatic,
- Start date
- Nov 5, 2012
- 80,694
- 55,641
Maybe not on purpose but when I see guys like McConnell getting starts... Ulis could definitely start by circumstance or if he gets drafted to a team towards the bottom
- Mar 31, 2011
- 80,368
- 131,662
Funny you bring up McConnell, because I was going to make the same comparison. Girlfriend went to Zona, so I watched McConnell play a lot. Always told my girl that while he was a great college player, he'd never start in the NBA. However, he can do all the quintessential PG duties and coaches/GMs respect that. Told her that I wouldn't be surprised if he jumped around team to team as a career backup. Nothing wrong with that...Just doesn't have the elite athleticism that you need in order to be a starting PG in the league.
McConnell just happened to find his way to the worst team in the history of the NBA, and he knows how to feed the post, which makes him a good fit for Okafor...Don't see this situation happening too many more times in the near future though...
- Nov 26, 2012
- 7,165
- 1,812
Ya'll putting osh to work 
- Sep 5, 2010
- 113,444
- 172,156
- Sep 5, 2010
- 113,444
- 172,156
- Sep 5, 2010
- 113,444
- 172,156
Sixers, Lakers get star forwards for the future in Mock Draft 3.0
http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/stor...lphia-76ers-brandon-ingram-los-angeles-lakers
In a new wrinkle for Mock Draft 3.0, we'll be using the ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) projected W-L records to determine the draft order. This should be a more accurate gauge of how the draft will look at the end of the season.
Remember, mock drafts don't determine where a player should go, but rather what each team in the draft would likely do with its pick. If you want a ranking of players, check out our latest Big Board here.
Nothing is set in stone at this point. Expect this mock draft to fluctuate greatly over the course of the next five months.
Nevertheless, it's our best stab at a full first-round mock draft (assuming every eligible prospect who has yet to state his intentions on the draft declares), after taking into account team needs, based on our discussions with NBA scouts and general managers.
Philadelphia 76ers
Ben Simmons LSU Freshman Forward
The 76ers are still on track to have better than a 25 percent chance at Simmons, combining the odds for Philadelphia and Sacramento (Philly can swap picks with the Kings).
Of course, the Sixers' improved play with Ish Smith at point guard might make their fans a little nervous, as Philly looks competitive in almost every game. If the Sixers don't end up with the worst record, the trade for Smith could come back to haunt them.
If the Sixers do win the lottery, Simmons seems like a great pick. Duke forward Brandon Ingram would be tempting because he fits a positional need a little more and brings shooting to the table -- that's Simmons' biggest weakness -- but with several months to go before the draft, Simmons remains firmly in the lead for the No. 1 pick.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 25 percent, 14-68
Los Angeles Lakers*
Brandon Ingram Duke Freshman Forward
The Lakers are playing better basketball, but thankfully for their fans, it's not good enough to mess with their lottery odds. That's important, because L.A. must send this pick to the 76ers if it falls to fourth or lower in the lottery. Finishing with the second-worst record gives the Lakers a 56 percent chance of keeping the pick.
Simmons would, of course, be a godsend for the Lakers, but Ingram is also a prize and would fit a major need. The long, athletic wing has been terrific on both ends of the floor the last 10 games for Duke. He'd be a major upgrade at the 3. A combo of D'Angelo Russell and Ingram should give the Lakers a serious foundation for the future.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 19.9 percent, 19-63
Boston Celtics*
Dragan Bender Croatia Age: 18 Forward/center
This Nets' pick is unprotected, meaning the worse Brooklyn plays, the more excited Celtics fans should get. The Nets have won just one of their past 10 games and seem like legitimate contenders to "pass" the Lakers for the second-best lottery odds in the draft.
Bender's starting to get minutes for Maccabi Tel Aviv, but it's mostly his upside that gets general managers excited. He is big and skilled, can guard multiple positions and has shown the ability to stretch the floor lately. I'm not sure he's in the same talent category as Kristaps Porzingis, but for many scouts, he's the other prize in this draft behind Simmons and Ingram.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record (via Nets): 15.6 percent, 23-59
Minnesota Timberwolves*
Henry Ellenson Marquette Freshman Forward/center
The Timberwolves are loaded with young talent, but they're struggling to compete with the other elite teams in the West and look destined to land yet another top-five pick. They already have a number of young players they love -- Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach LaVine, Ricky Rubio and Shabazz Muhammad -- but could still use some help at the 4.
Ellenson is a perfect fit as a big who can rebound and spread the floor. Think of him as a poor man's Kevin Love, to invoke the name of a recent Timberwolves star.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 11.9 percent, 26-56
Phoenix Suns
Kris Dunn Providence Junior Guard
The Suns are fading fast now that Eric Bledsoe is out for the season with a torn meniscus. They've won just once in their past 10 games, and if things don't get better, they could challenge both the Lakers and Nets for the second-worst record in the NBA. The Suns already have two point guards -- Bledsoe and Brandon Knight -- but then again, they don't really have one. Both are shooting guards that lack the size to play the 2.
The good news is Dunn brings the floor vision of a lead guy with enough size to guard both backcourt positions. He's not a great shooter and he's a little old, but he's the most dynamic guard in the draft. The Suns would have to figure out how to find minutes for all three guards.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 8.8 percent, 28-54
Denver Nuggets*
Jaylen Brown Cal Freshman Forward
Denver is in the midst of a rebuild. There are interesting young players at every position for the Nuggets, which gives them some flexibility here. Brown is super intriguing given his NBA body and athleticism. He's just a jump shot away from being a star.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 6.3 percent, 32-50
New Orleans Pelicans
Jamal Murray Kentucky Freshman Guard
The Pelicans continue to struggle with putting a real team around Anthony Davis. With Eric Gordon hitting free agency this coming summer, the Pelicans could use a guard who can create, shoot and finish at the rim.
Murray might not be an elite athlete, but his high basketball IQ and scoring ability should lift some of the load off Davis.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 4.3 percent, 34-48
Milwaukee Bucks
Jakob Poeltl Utah Sophomore Center
The Bucks might be the biggest disappointment in the East after their terrific run last year, but landing this high in the lottery might pay off.
Greg Monroe has been good for them in the middle. Still, the Bucks could continue to use players with size, rebounding and shot-blocking ability like Poeltl.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 2.8 percent, 36-46
Portland Trail Blazers*
Skal Labissiere Kentucky Freshman Center/forward
The Blazers have both Meyers Leonard and Noah Vonleh as potential stretch-4s, but that wouldn't stop them from grabbing Labissiere here.
He was widely regarded as the second-best prospect in the draft after Simmons before the college season started. He's struggled mightily at Kentucky, but he still has the size, athleticism and perimeter skills teams covet.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 1.7 percent, 36-46
Sacramento Kings*
Wade Baldwin IV Vanderbilt Sophomore Guard
Rajon Rondo has worked out well for the Kings, but he's an unrestricted free agent and will likely try to use that success to land on a better team.
Baldwin has great size and strength for his position and has proved to be very capable of shooting the rock. The Kings need a long-term answer at the point and Baldwin would be a good one.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 1.1 percent, 36-46
Toronto Raptors*
Ivan Rabb Cal Freshman Forward/center
The Raptors have Jonas Valanciunas anchoring the middle and Bismack Biyombo has been a terrific rebounder off the bench, but they are truly in need of a dominant 4. Most scouts felt Rabb would be at least a two-year player at Cal. He's off to a very strong start, though, and ticks off a number of boxes that NBA scouts are looking for in modern bigs.
While he's not a 3-point threat yet, he can hit the midrange jumper and is a great rebounder.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record (via Knicks): 0.8 percent, 38-44
Orlando Magic
Deyonta Davis Michigan State Freshman Forward
Davis is raw. Very raw. But he brings two things to the table that Orlando really needs: shot-blocking and front-court athleticism.
The Magic would have to be patient with him. If Davis stays another year at Michigan State, he could be a top-10 talent next year.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.7 percent, 39-43
Washington Wizards
Diamond Stone Maryland Freshman Center
The Wizards could use help up front. Nene is in the last year of his contract and there just isn't a lot of depth right now behind Marcin Gortat at the 5.
Stone's ability to score with his back to the basket is his biggest draw. He's big, long and dominant in the post. His lack of elite athleticism hurts him a bit, but he's been rising on draft boards lately.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.6 percent, 39-43
Charlotte Hornets
Furkan Korkmaz Turkey Age: 18 Forward
The Hornets continue to be a team that could use additional 3-point shooting. Korkmaz is shooting 41 percent from deep in the Euroleague this year and 50 percent from 3 in Turkish play.
He's a prototypical 2-guard who could allow Nicolas Batum to spend more time at the 3 next season.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.5 percent, 40-42
Utah Jazz
Buddy Hield Oklahoma Senior Guard
The Jazz don't have any real glaring needs. Hield would give them an elite scorer off the bench who excels at both shooting the ball (he's hitting 50 percent from 3 this season) and getting to the basket.
He's a bit undersized for his position, but he's the type of player Utah loves: smart, high-character and tough.
Projected record: 39-43
Remember, mock drafts don't determine where a player should go, but rather what each team in the draft would likely do with its pick. If you want a ranking of players, check out our latest Big Board here.
Nothing is set in stone at this point. Expect this mock draft to fluctuate greatly over the course of the next five months.
Nevertheless, it's our best stab at a full first-round mock draft (assuming every eligible prospect who has yet to state his intentions on the draft declares), after taking into account team needs, based on our discussions with NBA scouts and general managers.
Philadelphia 76ers
Ben Simmons LSU Freshman Forward
The 76ers are still on track to have better than a 25 percent chance at Simmons, combining the odds for Philadelphia and Sacramento (Philly can swap picks with the Kings).
Of course, the Sixers' improved play with Ish Smith at point guard might make their fans a little nervous, as Philly looks competitive in almost every game. If the Sixers don't end up with the worst record, the trade for Smith could come back to haunt them.
If the Sixers do win the lottery, Simmons seems like a great pick. Duke forward Brandon Ingram would be tempting because he fits a positional need a little more and brings shooting to the table -- that's Simmons' biggest weakness -- but with several months to go before the draft, Simmons remains firmly in the lead for the No. 1 pick.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 25 percent, 14-68
Los Angeles Lakers*
Brandon Ingram Duke Freshman Forward
The Lakers are playing better basketball, but thankfully for their fans, it's not good enough to mess with their lottery odds. That's important, because L.A. must send this pick to the 76ers if it falls to fourth or lower in the lottery. Finishing with the second-worst record gives the Lakers a 56 percent chance of keeping the pick.
Simmons would, of course, be a godsend for the Lakers, but Ingram is also a prize and would fit a major need. The long, athletic wing has been terrific on both ends of the floor the last 10 games for Duke. He'd be a major upgrade at the 3. A combo of D'Angelo Russell and Ingram should give the Lakers a serious foundation for the future.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 19.9 percent, 19-63
Boston Celtics*
Dragan Bender Croatia Age: 18 Forward/center
This Nets' pick is unprotected, meaning the worse Brooklyn plays, the more excited Celtics fans should get. The Nets have won just one of their past 10 games and seem like legitimate contenders to "pass" the Lakers for the second-best lottery odds in the draft.
Bender's starting to get minutes for Maccabi Tel Aviv, but it's mostly his upside that gets general managers excited. He is big and skilled, can guard multiple positions and has shown the ability to stretch the floor lately. I'm not sure he's in the same talent category as Kristaps Porzingis, but for many scouts, he's the other prize in this draft behind Simmons and Ingram.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record (via Nets): 15.6 percent, 23-59
Minnesota Timberwolves*
Henry Ellenson Marquette Freshman Forward/center
The Timberwolves are loaded with young talent, but they're struggling to compete with the other elite teams in the West and look destined to land yet another top-five pick. They already have a number of young players they love -- Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach LaVine, Ricky Rubio and Shabazz Muhammad -- but could still use some help at the 4.
Ellenson is a perfect fit as a big who can rebound and spread the floor. Think of him as a poor man's Kevin Love, to invoke the name of a recent Timberwolves star.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 11.9 percent, 26-56
Phoenix Suns
Kris Dunn Providence Junior Guard
The Suns are fading fast now that Eric Bledsoe is out for the season with a torn meniscus. They've won just once in their past 10 games, and if things don't get better, they could challenge both the Lakers and Nets for the second-worst record in the NBA. The Suns already have two point guards -- Bledsoe and Brandon Knight -- but then again, they don't really have one. Both are shooting guards that lack the size to play the 2.
The good news is Dunn brings the floor vision of a lead guy with enough size to guard both backcourt positions. He's not a great shooter and he's a little old, but he's the most dynamic guard in the draft. The Suns would have to figure out how to find minutes for all three guards.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 8.8 percent, 28-54
Denver Nuggets*
Jaylen Brown Cal Freshman Forward
Denver is in the midst of a rebuild. There are interesting young players at every position for the Nuggets, which gives them some flexibility here. Brown is super intriguing given his NBA body and athleticism. He's just a jump shot away from being a star.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 6.3 percent, 32-50
New Orleans Pelicans
Jamal Murray Kentucky Freshman Guard
The Pelicans continue to struggle with putting a real team around Anthony Davis. With Eric Gordon hitting free agency this coming summer, the Pelicans could use a guard who can create, shoot and finish at the rim.
Murray might not be an elite athlete, but his high basketball IQ and scoring ability should lift some of the load off Davis.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 4.3 percent, 34-48
Milwaukee Bucks
Jakob Poeltl Utah Sophomore Center
The Bucks might be the biggest disappointment in the East after their terrific run last year, but landing this high in the lottery might pay off.
Greg Monroe has been good for them in the middle. Still, the Bucks could continue to use players with size, rebounding and shot-blocking ability like Poeltl.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 2.8 percent, 36-46
Portland Trail Blazers*
Skal Labissiere Kentucky Freshman Center/forward
The Blazers have both Meyers Leonard and Noah Vonleh as potential stretch-4s, but that wouldn't stop them from grabbing Labissiere here.
He was widely regarded as the second-best prospect in the draft after Simmons before the college season started. He's struggled mightily at Kentucky, but he still has the size, athleticism and perimeter skills teams covet.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 1.7 percent, 36-46
Sacramento Kings*
Wade Baldwin IV Vanderbilt Sophomore Guard
Rajon Rondo has worked out well for the Kings, but he's an unrestricted free agent and will likely try to use that success to land on a better team.
Baldwin has great size and strength for his position and has proved to be very capable of shooting the rock. The Kings need a long-term answer at the point and Baldwin would be a good one.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 1.1 percent, 36-46
Toronto Raptors*
Ivan Rabb Cal Freshman Forward/center
The Raptors have Jonas Valanciunas anchoring the middle and Bismack Biyombo has been a terrific rebounder off the bench, but they are truly in need of a dominant 4. Most scouts felt Rabb would be at least a two-year player at Cal. He's off to a very strong start, though, and ticks off a number of boxes that NBA scouts are looking for in modern bigs.
While he's not a 3-point threat yet, he can hit the midrange jumper and is a great rebounder.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record (via Knicks): 0.8 percent, 38-44
Orlando Magic
Deyonta Davis Michigan State Freshman Forward
Davis is raw. Very raw. But he brings two things to the table that Orlando really needs: shot-blocking and front-court athleticism.
The Magic would have to be patient with him. If Davis stays another year at Michigan State, he could be a top-10 talent next year.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.7 percent, 39-43
Washington Wizards
Diamond Stone Maryland Freshman Center
The Wizards could use help up front. Nene is in the last year of his contract and there just isn't a lot of depth right now behind Marcin Gortat at the 5.
Stone's ability to score with his back to the basket is his biggest draw. He's big, long and dominant in the post. His lack of elite athleticism hurts him a bit, but he's been rising on draft boards lately.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.6 percent, 39-43
Charlotte Hornets
Furkan Korkmaz Turkey Age: 18 Forward
The Hornets continue to be a team that could use additional 3-point shooting. Korkmaz is shooting 41 percent from deep in the Euroleague this year and 50 percent from 3 in Turkish play.
He's a prototypical 2-guard who could allow Nicolas Batum to spend more time at the 3 next season.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.5 percent, 40-42
Utah Jazz
Buddy Hield Oklahoma Senior Guard
The Jazz don't have any real glaring needs. Hield would give them an elite scorer off the bench who excels at both shooting the ball (he's hitting 50 percent from 3 this season) and getting to the basket.
He's a bit undersized for his position, but he's the type of player Utah loves: smart, high-character and tough.
Projected record: 39-43
- Aug 29, 2012
- 2,464
- 420
This is the draft thread not the Phoenix Suns thread bro
- Mar 31, 2011
- 80,368
- 131,662
My dude Diamond Stone getting some lottery love 
- Apr 28, 2009
- 33,347
- 15,147
Diamond Stone is definitely going lottery.
- Feb 7, 2008
- 67,321
- 37,252
Saw DX's latest mock. Don't know if Givony and the staff have draft intel yet but Kris Dunn doesn't make much sense for Minnesota with his skillset.
- Aug 2, 2006
- 37,858
- 35,649
they don't take into account team needs until after combine.
- Jan 3, 2008
- 12,102
- 1,411
He doesn't have NBA range yet, and probably returns for a SR year but I find it crazy Josh Hart carries little to no NBA buzz
- Aug 2, 2006
- 37,858
- 35,649
Print and Go Back ESPN.com: Giant Killers [Print without images]
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Giant Killers: Identifying the vulnerable giants
By Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner
Four top-25 teams lost to unranked opponents last week, and another three have gone down within the past 48 hours. With conference standings, projected brackets and fans’ guts all churning, you don’t need us to tell you that the best programs in college basketball this season are a tightly bunched, volatile group. But our Giant Killers project can show you which highly rated teams are likely to fall away from the pack in March.
For 11 years, we have refined a statistical model to find traits common to deep underdogs that pull off big upsets and heavy favorites that lose in the NCAA tournament. We’ll get deeper into the metrics in the coming weeks, but basically, over the years, we have found that successful Cinderellas tend to play high-risk, high-reward styles, increasing the variability of their scoring. Conversely, winning overdogs must choke off opponents’ risk-taking. They need to keep the ball by winning rebounding and turnover battles, and they must limit the damage of opponents’ pressure and long-range shooting. And just as these lessons led us to focus on Iowa State and Kansas last year, they are already spotlighting vulnerabilities among would-be contenders this season.
Here, then, are five giants who could play Goliath if the right David comes along in March.
Villanova Wildcats
After watching three key contributors to last year’s 33-3 squad graduate or transfer, Villanova has retooled and once again ranks among the most efficient teams in the country at both ends of the floor. But the Wildcats’ style of play, which often spreads four men around the perimeter, just isn’t suited to generating the extra possessions that Giants need to ward off Giant Killers in the postseason. Villanova ranks 160th in the NCAA in offensive rebounding percentage, nabbing only 30.8 percent of their own missed shots, and 212th in defensive rebounding percentage, according to KenPom.com. An added negative: the Wildcats play at a crawl, averaging just 66.3 possessions per game (311th in the nation), which can make it hard to pull away from an inferior opponent -- as Villanova has discovered against Georgetown and Butler in the past two weeks.
In the 2014 tournament, the Wildcats couldn’t buy an offensive board against UConn and lost as a 2-seed to a No. 7 seed. Last year, a better Villanova team once again got out-rebounded at both ends and couldn’t overcome a subpar shooting night, going down in an 8-1 upset to North Carolina State. In a December matchup this season, Virginia not only grabbed 64 percent of their own missed shots, but also an astounding 59 percent of Villanova’s, and beat the Wildcats 86-75. That’s enough of a pattern to worry about.
Maryland Terrapins
Last year, our model pointed to Maryland’s lack of offensive rebounding as a reason to mistrust the Terps at tournament time. This season, keyed by freshman big man Diamond Stone, Maryland is much stronger on the boards -- but the Terrapins are far looser with the ball. Maryland is committing turnovers on 19.6 percent of possessions, a rate that ranks 250th in the NCAA and is a key reason why Mark Turgeon’s crew is the fourth-best shooting team in the country (effective field goal percentage: 58.7 percent) but just the 18th-best offense (115.9 points per 100 possessions, after adjusting for schedule). It’s not like they’re gambling and compensating at the other end, either; Maryland ranks 256th in generating turnovers. Giants looking for safety cannot afford to give opponents extra possessions -- a fact demonstrated to Maryland by North Carolina last month, when the Terps had 22 turnovers and lost by 8, and by West Virginia in last year’s tournament, when they had 23 turnovers and lost by 10.
North Carolina Tar Heels
As usual, UNC is protecting the ball, working it inside at a fast tempo, shooting well at the rim and dominating the offensive boards -- all useful traits for Giants looking to squelch Killers. This season, however, the Tar Heels haven’t been dipped quite fully in magical waters, leaving a glaring weakness: Carolina is allowing opponents to shoot a whopping 38.2 percent from downtown. That not only ranks 313th in the country, it’s also the worst mark for any UNC team in our database, which stretches back to 2002. Northern Iowa and Texas, two smart underdogs, handed the Tar Heels their only two losses of the season so far by shooting a combined 23 of 52 (44.2 percent) on three-point attempts. And you can see recent opponents taking the space North Carolina’s guards are giving them, stepping back and raining bombs: Florida State shot 20 3s against UNC on January 4, and Syracuse launched 31 five days later. When a Giant is vulnerable to a particular factor that makes a Killer dangerous, we call that a “peanut allergy.” Better break out the EpiPens.
Providence Friars
Conventional rankings like the Friars because they got off to a terrific start and are led by one of the nation’s best players in Kris Dunn; they placed 16th in the most recent AP poll, and Joe Lunardi projects them to be a 6-seed. But Providence ranks just 213th in the NCAA in effective field goal percentage (48.6 percent) and is above-average but not spectacular at rebounding at both ends. The Friars have also enjoyed good fortune in close games, going 4-1 in contests decided by four points or less, thereby boosting their wins total beyond the record their underlying stats suggest they deserve. As a result, most analytics systems see them as something like the 50th-best team in the country, low enough to be outclassed by a strong Killer. Indeed, Lunardi has them facing Texas Tech in a 6-11 tournament matchup, even though the Raiders currently rank 38th in BPI, eight spots above Providence at No. 46. Providence is the kind of Giant who could actually be an underdog in March.
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina is enjoying its finest season in at least a decade, but beneath the surface of its shiny 16-1 record, there's a mix of vulnerabilities. The Gamecocks throw the ball away on 19.2 percent of possessions (ranking 224th in the NCAA). They allow opponents to hit on 35 percent of 3s (ranking 210th). They are a good story, so they’ve been in the AP rankings and Lunardi has projected them as a No. 5- to 7-seed, but analytics suggest they are actually a top-40, not a top-25 team, so they could easily face a near-equal or even better NCAA tournament opponent. And this further spikes the mix: South Carolina has attempted about half as many free throws as field goals (50.4 percent, ranking fourth). In the past, our research has indicated that Giants that are unusually reliant on foul shots are vulnerable in March, maybe because they can no longer rely on home-court calls, maybe because Killers often excel at perimeter play. The Gamecocks are going to wind up with a lot of wins, but also deserve a few red flags.
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Giant Killers: Identifying the vulnerable giants
By Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner
Four top-25 teams lost to unranked opponents last week, and another three have gone down within the past 48 hours. With conference standings, projected brackets and fans’ guts all churning, you don’t need us to tell you that the best programs in college basketball this season are a tightly bunched, volatile group. But our Giant Killers project can show you which highly rated teams are likely to fall away from the pack in March.
For 11 years, we have refined a statistical model to find traits common to deep underdogs that pull off big upsets and heavy favorites that lose in the NCAA tournament. We’ll get deeper into the metrics in the coming weeks, but basically, over the years, we have found that successful Cinderellas tend to play high-risk, high-reward styles, increasing the variability of their scoring. Conversely, winning overdogs must choke off opponents’ risk-taking. They need to keep the ball by winning rebounding and turnover battles, and they must limit the damage of opponents’ pressure and long-range shooting. And just as these lessons led us to focus on Iowa State and Kansas last year, they are already spotlighting vulnerabilities among would-be contenders this season.
Here, then, are five giants who could play Goliath if the right David comes along in March.
Villanova Wildcats
After watching three key contributors to last year’s 33-3 squad graduate or transfer, Villanova has retooled and once again ranks among the most efficient teams in the country at both ends of the floor. But the Wildcats’ style of play, which often spreads four men around the perimeter, just isn’t suited to generating the extra possessions that Giants need to ward off Giant Killers in the postseason. Villanova ranks 160th in the NCAA in offensive rebounding percentage, nabbing only 30.8 percent of their own missed shots, and 212th in defensive rebounding percentage, according to KenPom.com. An added negative: the Wildcats play at a crawl, averaging just 66.3 possessions per game (311th in the nation), which can make it hard to pull away from an inferior opponent -- as Villanova has discovered against Georgetown and Butler in the past two weeks.
In the 2014 tournament, the Wildcats couldn’t buy an offensive board against UConn and lost as a 2-seed to a No. 7 seed. Last year, a better Villanova team once again got out-rebounded at both ends and couldn’t overcome a subpar shooting night, going down in an 8-1 upset to North Carolina State. In a December matchup this season, Virginia not only grabbed 64 percent of their own missed shots, but also an astounding 59 percent of Villanova’s, and beat the Wildcats 86-75. That’s enough of a pattern to worry about.
Maryland Terrapins
Last year, our model pointed to Maryland’s lack of offensive rebounding as a reason to mistrust the Terps at tournament time. This season, keyed by freshman big man Diamond Stone, Maryland is much stronger on the boards -- but the Terrapins are far looser with the ball. Maryland is committing turnovers on 19.6 percent of possessions, a rate that ranks 250th in the NCAA and is a key reason why Mark Turgeon’s crew is the fourth-best shooting team in the country (effective field goal percentage: 58.7 percent) but just the 18th-best offense (115.9 points per 100 possessions, after adjusting for schedule). It’s not like they’re gambling and compensating at the other end, either; Maryland ranks 256th in generating turnovers. Giants looking for safety cannot afford to give opponents extra possessions -- a fact demonstrated to Maryland by North Carolina last month, when the Terps had 22 turnovers and lost by 8, and by West Virginia in last year’s tournament, when they had 23 turnovers and lost by 10.
North Carolina Tar Heels
As usual, UNC is protecting the ball, working it inside at a fast tempo, shooting well at the rim and dominating the offensive boards -- all useful traits for Giants looking to squelch Killers. This season, however, the Tar Heels haven’t been dipped quite fully in magical waters, leaving a glaring weakness: Carolina is allowing opponents to shoot a whopping 38.2 percent from downtown. That not only ranks 313th in the country, it’s also the worst mark for any UNC team in our database, which stretches back to 2002. Northern Iowa and Texas, two smart underdogs, handed the Tar Heels their only two losses of the season so far by shooting a combined 23 of 52 (44.2 percent) on three-point attempts. And you can see recent opponents taking the space North Carolina’s guards are giving them, stepping back and raining bombs: Florida State shot 20 3s against UNC on January 4, and Syracuse launched 31 five days later. When a Giant is vulnerable to a particular factor that makes a Killer dangerous, we call that a “peanut allergy.” Better break out the EpiPens.
Providence Friars
Conventional rankings like the Friars because they got off to a terrific start and are led by one of the nation’s best players in Kris Dunn; they placed 16th in the most recent AP poll, and Joe Lunardi projects them to be a 6-seed. But Providence ranks just 213th in the NCAA in effective field goal percentage (48.6 percent) and is above-average but not spectacular at rebounding at both ends. The Friars have also enjoyed good fortune in close games, going 4-1 in contests decided by four points or less, thereby boosting their wins total beyond the record their underlying stats suggest they deserve. As a result, most analytics systems see them as something like the 50th-best team in the country, low enough to be outclassed by a strong Killer. Indeed, Lunardi has them facing Texas Tech in a 6-11 tournament matchup, even though the Raiders currently rank 38th in BPI, eight spots above Providence at No. 46. Providence is the kind of Giant who could actually be an underdog in March.
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina is enjoying its finest season in at least a decade, but beneath the surface of its shiny 16-1 record, there's a mix of vulnerabilities. The Gamecocks throw the ball away on 19.2 percent of possessions (ranking 224th in the NCAA). They allow opponents to hit on 35 percent of 3s (ranking 210th). They are a good story, so they’ve been in the AP rankings and Lunardi has projected them as a No. 5- to 7-seed, but analytics suggest they are actually a top-40, not a top-25 team, so they could easily face a near-equal or even better NCAA tournament opponent. And this further spikes the mix: South Carolina has attempted about half as many free throws as field goals (50.4 percent, ranking fourth). In the past, our research has indicated that Giants that are unusually reliant on foul shots are vulnerable in March, maybe because they can no longer rely on home-court calls, maybe because Killers often excel at perimeter play. The Gamecocks are going to wind up with a lot of wins, but also deserve a few red flags.
- Apr 28, 2009
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How old are you?
- Mar 31, 2011
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- Sep 5, 2010
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- Apr 28, 2009
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Brandon Ingram is the truth. Think he might be who the Sixers need more than even Simmons.
- Dec 27, 2012
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you'd have to build your team to fit Simmons' play style.
with Ingram you can kinda plug him in anywhere & he'll make an impact
- Feb 7, 2008
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I think he'll really struggle when he gets to the league but eventually make an impact. More confident in Simmons, who still seems to be deferring too much but he's not a readymade scorer at this point. But it's college. Still should be able to physically dominate them, he's capable of that now but he needs to command the offense and there are others who "need" shots.
- Feb 7, 2008
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Thon Maker 25th in the DX 2017...
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- Apr 28, 2009
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Other than Ingram being skinny, what makes you think he'll really struggle to start his NBA career?
- Sep 5, 2010
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How about the Sixers draft Kris Dunn while the Lakers draft Ingram?
- Mar 31, 2011
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I'll gladly take Simmons on the Celts thenHow about the Sixers draft Kris Dunn while the Lakers draft Ingram?
- Sep 5, 2010
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That's ideal.I'll gladly take Simmons on the Celts thenHow about the Sixers draft Kris Dunn while the Lakers draft Ingram?
1. Celtics - Simmons
2. Lakers - Ingram
3. Sixers - Dunn
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