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It was probably two overreactions and the truth being somewhere in the middle lol
2024 NBA Draft Thread - the hawks might be on the clock
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by addict4sneakers,
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The step back clip had me…
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Touted as a high lottery pick entering the season, Villanova star freshman Cam Whitmore missed the first seven games for the Wildcats before returning to action in early December. Since then, he’s played nine games and put up very respectable numbers: 32.0 points, 14.1 rebounds and 2.5 steals per 100 possessions, including 59.6 percent shooting on 2s. Most of the nine games were against legitimate opposition (sorry, Georgetown), and he shone against No. 18 Xavier, scoring 26 in Saturday’s loss.
However, projecting his game to the NBA level still feels tricky. There’s a lot of, “Yes, but …” in his profile. Whitmore is built like a tank but often plays more like an undersized four than a true wing. He has a great first step off the catch, but his best work comes in straight-line attacks; there isn’t a lot of wiggle here. He can finish powerfully at the rim, throwing down monstrous dunks when he can load up, but everything is with two hands and most are with two feet. He’s listed at 6-7, but that seems optimistic; I’m guessing he’ll measure 6-6 at best.
In particular, scouts will want to see more perimeter game from Whitemore to truly believe in him. He’s made 15 of his 18 free-throw attempts to date, which offers hope, but he’s only 11-of-37 from 3. Included in that figure was a wild brick in the Xavier game that sailed over the rim and smacked into the far side of the backboard. Had it been an NBA game, it would have sent Jerry West into concussion protocol.
Additionally, Whitmore needs to show feel for more than just scoring. He has only six assists in 17 games; can he use his first step to generate opportunities for others at some point?
However, Whitmore does have one huge item on his favor: his birth certificate. With a July 2004 birthdate that puts him a year or more younger than several other high lottery prospects, Whitmore has time on his side. History says teams have often underrated this factor in the past, and that he’s performing well in a high-major league as an 18-year-old is a big check in his favor.
The top two picks in the 2023 draft are no-brainers, but the mid-lottery has started looking pretty soft of late. Scouts still have questions about Whitmore too, but his combination of age and production could make him one of the safer bets here … especially if he can spend the rest of the season proving that his true position is small forward.
However, projecting his game to the NBA level still feels tricky. There’s a lot of, “Yes, but …” in his profile. Whitmore is built like a tank but often plays more like an undersized four than a true wing. He has a great first step off the catch, but his best work comes in straight-line attacks; there isn’t a lot of wiggle here. He can finish powerfully at the rim, throwing down monstrous dunks when he can load up, but everything is with two hands and most are with two feet. He’s listed at 6-7, but that seems optimistic; I’m guessing he’ll measure 6-6 at best.
In particular, scouts will want to see more perimeter game from Whitemore to truly believe in him. He’s made 15 of his 18 free-throw attempts to date, which offers hope, but he’s only 11-of-37 from 3. Included in that figure was a wild brick in the Xavier game that sailed over the rim and smacked into the far side of the backboard. Had it been an NBA game, it would have sent Jerry West into concussion protocol.
Additionally, Whitmore needs to show feel for more than just scoring. He has only six assists in 17 games; can he use his first step to generate opportunities for others at some point?
However, Whitmore does have one huge item on his favor: his birth certificate. With a July 2004 birthdate that puts him a year or more younger than several other high lottery prospects, Whitmore has time on his side. History says teams have often underrated this factor in the past, and that he’s performing well in a high-major league as an 18-year-old is a big check in his favor.
The top two picks in the 2023 draft are no-brainers, but the mid-lottery has started looking pretty soft of late. Scouts still have questions about Whitmore too, but his combination of age and production could make him one of the safer bets here … especially if he can spend the rest of the season proving that his true position is small forward.
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My brother mentioned this dude to me today
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New age Keith van horn or wut
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GG
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Back to back threes by Brandon Miller vs Arkansas.
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NBA Mock Draft: Wembanyama, Henderson lead class; Whitmore, Miller emerge in Top 5
What a time to update the 2023 NBA Mock Draft here at The Athletic.
We’re firmly into conference play in college hoops, and outside of the top two selections, which seem relatively set in stone with Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, this class figures to be a bit of a question mark still. Injuries have caused significant questions for many of the top players in the class. Villanova wing Cam Whitmore and Duke wing Dariq Whitehead both missed a significant part of the non-conference season before returning. Arkansas guard Nick Smith has missed a large part of the season due to knee soreness. Those are three potential lottery picks who have been a bit slow to start the season.
On top of that, this college basketball season is littered with parity but hasn’t really featured a large number of standout performances from players in premium positions that NBA teams tend to value in the draft — particularly on the wings and in the backcourt. Enough players have stood out to where there are about 19 or so evaluators feel relatively confident are first-round picks at this point, but beyond that, the draft gets very uncertain. There is a lot of space in the back third of the first round for players to emerge and turn themselves into first-round picks. I would imagine multiple players who are not currently listed here will develop and get more comfortable on their way to getting guaranteed contracts in the NBA next season. This thing truly is wide open as scouts try to identify higher-end talents.
Evaluators, however, believe this is a strong group likely to be selected through the lottery and thus are considering this a strong draft class. From an elite top-two prospects all the way through the relatively high-upside back half of the lottery, scouts are excited about the talent that will enter the NBA next season. There does seem to be a bit more buzz about this draft than the early returns on the 2024 and 2025 iterations, so don’t be surprised to see teams try to hold onto top-20 picks in this class if they can.
With that being said, here is the current projection. Stats and records are through Jan. 10; ages listed are as of draft day (June 22):
1. Houston Rockets
Victor Wembanyama | 7-4 center | 19 years old | Metropolitans 92
Wembanyama is the no-doubter at No. 1 for everyone. He has a very real case to be the best prospect since LeBron James given his size, shot-creation skill, tools on defense and production. The 7-foot-4 French center has averaged 22.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and three blocks per game, all of which currently lead the French League. He’s also shooting 47.9 percent from the field and about 80 percent from the foul line while getting up over five 3-point attempts per game — many of which are self-created opportunities off the bounce. I’ve delved deep into Wembanyama following his games against the G League Ignite earlier this season, so if you’re looking for a fuller picture of this dynamic, shot-creating, rim-protecting super-giant who can shoot and dominate games, look there. In terms of potential weaknesses, the occasional scout has pointed to his passing and ability to make reads on the move, as well as the consistency of his shot. But I’ve yet to talk to one who doesn’t see these skills as likely to be improved as he ages. As long as Wembanyama stays healthy long term — something he’s done so far this season after a bit of a history of picking up injuries here and there — Wembanyama is a franchise-altering talent whose acquisition would completely change the fortunes of whichever team acquires him.
2. Detroit Pistons
Scoot Henderson | 6-2 lead guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Henderson is the no-doubter No. 2 prospect in this class, a player who pretty clearly would have gone first overall in both the 2022 and 2020 NBA drafts. He’s a wildly explosive athlete on the level of guys like Ja Morant and Derrick Rose at the lead guard position, while also possessing immense skill and feel for the game as a passer and playmaker. First, though, the athleticism. This dunk he threw down last week showcases everything you need to know about the kind of athlete Henderson is.
Beyond that, Henderson is averaging over 20 points while shooting just under 50 percent from the field and dishing out six assists per game with a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio as a teenager in the G League. He is by far the most successful preps-to-G-League story we’ve seen thus far and looks ready to step into the NBA as a starting point guard potentially as soon as next season. The one flaw that evaluators will point to is the shooting from distance, but Henderson has a well-developed midrange pull-up game that he can get at will, and in time, scouts believe he will be able to add to his repertoire from behind the 3-point line to stop teams from going way under his screens.
3. San Antonio Spurs
Amen Thompson | 6-7 lead guard | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
This is where the questions start. Thompson is the highest-upside player remaining. He’ll enter the NBA as a top 1 percent athlete in the league, and that is not an exaggeration. It’s hard to overemphasize his mix of explosiveness, quick-twitch, shiftiness and body control at his size. He’s truly special in the way he can fly up and down the court, shift gears as a playmaker and then quickly rise up with power and grace within the run of play. He has every athletic tool you could want. Beyond that, Thompson is also a highly impressive live-dribble passer and finisher at the rim. He is a walking paint touch who throws live-dribble kickouts and lobs from any angle with both hands and is also a threat to creatively score around legitimate rim protectors. The big question here is the jumper. Thompson’s jumper is very messy at this point and will require substantial developmental work by the team that selects him. Even then, it’s unlikely to ever be a first choice for him. But he does at least need the threat. If that threat comes, there is genuine All-NBA upside with Thompson. If it doesn’t, I still think he’s likely to be a starting quality point guard, but it’ll limit his effectiveness to an extent.
4. Charlotte Hornets
Cam Whitmore | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Villanova
Whitmore is an absurdly explosive wing, with terrific bounce and body control to create shots off the bounce and off drives with impressive hang-time finishes. Having said that, Whitmore has gotten off to a slow start at Villanova, averaging 13 points and five rebounds while shooting 49 percent from the field and 31 percent from 3. His touch looks good, but the shots just have been inconsistent, potentially the product of a thumb injury in the preseason that saw him miss Villanova’s first seven games and just recently enter the starting lineup after getting acclimated to college basketball under new coach Kyle Neptune. Teams are constantly on the lookout for shot-creating wings, and I’m still a believer in Whitmore’s game and think we’ll see more of the 26-point outbursts that he had against Xavier as the season progresses.
5. Orlando Magic
Brandon Miller | 6-9 wing | 20 years old | Alabama
Miller is arguably the breakout freshman star of the college season so far, leading the Crimson Tide to a 13-2 record and a top-five ranking in the country. A 6-9 shot-creating sniper from distance, Miller is hitting 43.5 percent of his seven 3-point attempts per game while averaging 19 points and 8.5 rebounds. Defensively, Miller is solid in space as a switchable combo forward and should continue to grow as his lower half gets stronger. It’s that lower body and core strength that cultivates Miller’s biggest flaw, as he’s really struggled to finish inside the 3-point arc, making just 43 percent of his shots from 2-point range. I’m less concerned about that than others for a few reasons. First, I think as Miller gets stronger, it’ll be harder to knock him off his driving lines and arrest his momentum as he gathers for finishes. Second, I think his footwork on drives could stand to use some refinement, and it’s a fixable issue as he continues to improve. Miller moves like an NBA player out there, with real control over the ball and the ability to handle in space and string out switch defenders to create mismatches. If his strength comes through his lower half, he has a real chance to be a dynamic scoring threat who can hold his own on defense with plus positional size. Even if that strength doesn’t come, he still projects as a floor-spacing wing who can hold his own on defense. It’s hard to see him fail.
6. Toronto Raptors
Ausar Thompson | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
Similarly to his brother above, Ausar Thompson is a terrific athlete. Whereas Amen is a top-1 percent athlete, I’d say Ausar is more of a top-10 percent athlete in the NBA on the wing — a dynamic player who can be dangerous in transition, a threat as a driver and a pesky deterrent on defense. Ausar Thompson is also a very high-level passer and ball-mover who typically makes the unselfish decision and keeps the offense in flow. Also similar to his brother, the big question is the shot, but Ausar is not the walking paint touch that Amen is athletically; thus, the jumper is more important to his game long term. The good news is that Ausar’s jumper is further along than Amen’s. The bad news is that it’s still hit or miss, and he goes through stretches when he can’t hit anything. Most NBA teams I talk to are very high on Ausar’s upside and buy him this high up the board. I’m a touch more skeptical, as I think the floor could be a bit low if the shot doesn’t come around. But most of the scouts I’ve talked to have him in the No. 5 to No. 10 range at this point.
7. Washington Wizards
Cason Wallace | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
Wallace is a pure gamer and someone scouts buy turning into a terrific, starting-quality guard for a long time due to his shooting and elite defense. He’s one of the best defenders in the class — a master of anticipatory help away from the ball and aggressive physicality on the ball. He has the upside of an All-Defense level guard. Offensively, Wallace is much more comfortable as a catch-and-shoot weapon right now, taking shots directly off the hop on spot-ups and hitting his five attempts per game from 3 at a 42 percent clip. But he can also attack off the bounce a bit and run ball screens when necessary. He’s a strong straight-line driver and a sharp passer who makes terrific reads. Wallace profiles really well as a starting guard who does all of the little things on top of knocking down shots next to an elite player. I’d bet he’s a piece of some really good, winning teams.
8. Oklahoma City Thunder
Jarace Walker | 6-8 forward | 19 years old | Houston
Walker is rising quickly for NBA scouts as he becomes more aggressive offensively. At 6-8 with a 7-2 wingspan, he has a rugged frame that looks ready to deal with the rigors of the NBA from Day 1. Defensively, he has all the tools scouts look for as a switchable on-ball player who also flies around in help and makes his presence felt all over the court. But it’s the recent offense that has turned some front-office heads, as Walker had back-to-back games over 20 points against SMU and Cincinnati, showcasing real skills as a driver with touch as a finisher. He’s also shown flashes as a shooter from distance, hitting 40 percent of his 3s, although I think it’ll take a bit more time for him to consistently stretch out defenses from 3. Teams that tend to invest in guys with plus positional size and toughness will be big fans of Walker and his game.
9. New Orleans Pelicans (via LAL)
Nick Smith Jr. | 6-4 combo guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
We haven’t gotten a chance to see a ton of Smith this season due to a right knee concern that has held him out of all but five games. Those five games were relatively hit or miss; Smith did a good job of using his footwork and creativity to create shots, but we didn’t see a ton of passing or playmaking or see him consistently knock down 3s at a high level. Scouts want to see him get back on the court to showcase that he’s more than a volume scorer and tough-shot maker. Hopefully we’ll get that chance. If he gets back out there, he could rise pretty substantially up the board. But there are more questions about Smith than were expected in the preseason given his reputation as a top-five player in the recruiting class. Anywhere in the lottery outside of the top three seems like a reasonable range right now.
10. Orlando Magic (via CHI)
Dariq Whitehead | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Duke
Another difficult judgment. Whitehead was hurt at the start of the season and missed Duke’s first set of games. Then, he came back off the bench and didn’t quite look as explosive following his foot injury. The fluidity and bounce he showed at lower levels wasn’t quite as good, which had an impact on his overall scoring game. But he’s started to look a bit like the old Whitehead in recent games. Over Duke’s last four, Whitehead has averaged 15 points while shooting 47 percent from the field and 42 percent from 3. His game against Boston College last Saturday was his best performance of the season so far, scoring 18 points and flashing some pull-up ability, off-ball cutting and sharper movement in general. I’d still bet on Whitehead going in the lottery, and he has a chance to rise much higher if things really break right with his season. It would be good for him to continue to perform and make scouts’ jobs easier as opposed to making them try to figure out how much stock they’d need to take in what was setting up to be a disappointing freshman season in his first eight games.
11. Atlanta Hawks
Anthony Black | 6-7 guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
Confession time: Black is the exact kind of player I tend to overvalue. He has plus positional size as a 6-7 guard who can play point and initiate offense. He processes the game at an elite level, constantly making the right read and play. He defends at an exceptionally high level as a switchable player you can utilize on a variety of different players. He pressures the paint and has real athleticism. I love everything about Black’s game but one thing: He struggles to shoot it right now. He has real touch, but the mechanics are messy and are going to require real work. If he can work through those and get the most out of his touch, I buy Black becoming a really good player on good teams. But the jumper is going to be a hole he has to fix.
12. Utah Jazz (via MIN)
Keyonte George | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Baylor
George is starting to come on recently, averaging 21.5 points over his last four games. But he’s also been extremely inefficient and hasn’t looked quite as athletic as was hoped coming into the season. He has all sorts of tricks in his toolbox, but he’s struggled a bit to get free from his man when going forward to try to finish at the rim. He does a great job of playing in between paces and dribbles, rising up for pull-up jumpers before defenders are ready to contest. But those shots haven’t quite fallen enough. The good news is he’s getting to the foul line a ton and deriving easy points that way because he gets defenders in awkward positions. But scouts aren’t totally sure what to make of George’s inefficiency. Baylor has lost some tight games to start Big 12 play, and it’ll be critical for the Bears to get on the right track. I’m still a believer in George, which is why I have him at No. 12. But scouts do diverge on him a bit, worrying about what the overall skill package looks like if the shot doesn’t come through.
13. Utah Jazz
Gradey **** | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Kansas
**** has been terrific this season and has a very real case as the best shooter in this draft class. At 6-8, he’s huge for a floor-spacing wing and has an extremely high release point on his jumper that makes it very difficult to contest. He makes them off movement and generates a lot of open shots while averaging 14 points and shooting an absurd 47 percent from 3. But he’s more than a pure gunner, as he can attack a bit off the bounce and relocate into 3s or drive and hit live-dribble passes to his teammates. The issue is that he has real strength-based concerns on defense and could be a player teams try to attack in the NBA. He’s been better on defense than a couple of the wings below him, like Brice Sensabaugh and Jett Howard, simply because he knows where he needs to be consistently and uses his size as much as he can. But if he doesn’t get much stronger or quicker, he could be enough of a liability to cause issues. Still, the offensive skill set is so high-level that he has to be this high. He’s a lights-out shooter by any level’s standard.
14. Portland Trail Blazers
Brice Sensabaugh | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Ohio State
Sensabaugh is a fascinating process versus results study. On a production basis, Miller is basically the only freshman to have outperformed Sensabaugh so far, as the Florida native is averaging 16.7 points on 52 percent from the field, 43 percent from 3 and 80 percent from the line. And a lot of those shots are tough shots that he’s self-creating in the midrange and knocking down over a tight defender. But … a lot of those shots are tough shots, and that’s a really hard way to make a living at the next level. The process is hard. Only the best of the best can do it. So far, Sensabaugh has been that. But what happens if the midrange shot starts to fall at a lesser clip? He’d still be a great 3-point shooter who can create shots, but the package becomes less enticing when also paired with his defense, which is really poor. Purdue relentlessly attacked him in the second half of a recent game that the Buckeyes couldn’t hang onto late. But on some level, the results are just too good to pass up at a certain point. That point right now for me is here. It could end up being much higher or lower at the end of the season. But Sensabaugh has firmly established himself as a potential lottery pick.
15. LA Clippers
Gregory “GG” Jackson | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | South Carolina
Jackson is one of the more polarizing players in the class for scouts right now. Some will point to the pure counting numbers he’s putting up as an 18-year-old playing college basketball a year ahead of schedule, averaging 15.8 points and seven rebounds per game. He’s also shown some impressive moments as a 3-point shooter with NBA range. But others will point to the fact that he has been incredibly inefficient and struggled to do anything resembling winning basketball. He’s the centerpiece of South Carolina’s offense, and the Gamecocks cater everything around him (a lot of the time to the detriment of the team, given that he struggles to make passing reads and turns it over often with a near 1-to-5 assist-to-turnover ratio). That has led to the 250th-best offense in the country, according to KenPom. That’s the third-worst high-major offense. What Jackson is right now, in this situation, is not what he’ll be in the NBA. But what can he be once he gets there? That’s what scouts are trying to figure out — how to separate the context of Jackson’s situation from his struggles and talent. He is all over the map.
16. Phoenix Suns
Jett Howard | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Michigan
Howard ticks a lot of boxes for teams looking to add to their wing rotation. He has plus positional size for the wing at 6-8 and hits shots at an exceedingly high level off movement with a beautiful, fluid stroke. On top of that, he’s a really sharp passer who can make plays off the bounce, especially off some of the zoom actions Michigan runs when he gets the ball coming off a pin-down and takes dribble-handoffs to get some penetration into the paint. He’s not a great athlete, though. It’s hard to see him truly separating right now from his man. But he does have some shake that he could grow into. The defense pushes him slightly outside of the lottery for me — he really struggles with his quickness to guard — but Howard is terrific and possesses many skills that evaluators covet.
17. Miami Heat
Rayan Rupert | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | New Zealand Breakers
This is where the questions really start on this draft board. Rupert has missed a bit of time recently due to a broken wrist but returned last week and played splendidly in his first game back, dropping 14 points. In both of his games back so far, he’s made multiple 3s, an important sign for a player who projects as a terrific 3-and-D prospect. Rupert is 6-7 with a ridiculous 7-3 wingspan and defends at a super high level on the ball while using his length to cut off angles in help situations. He’s also regarded as a very high-character player who works hard and is extremely competitive. With the number of teams looking for wings like him who can defend four positions and potentially make shots, Rupert makes sense as a developmental pick to take a chance on once you get outside of the lottery.
18. Golden State Warriors
Kris Murray | 6-8 wing | 22 years old | Iowa
Murray missed a bit of time earlier this season with a left foot injury, but he’s been remarkably good in the moments he’s been on the court. He’s doing a fairly reasonable impression of his brother Keegan Murray from last season, averaging 21 points and nearly 10 rebounds while shooting 52 percent from the field and 39 percent from 3. He’s dropped over 30 points four times this season, and the smooth lefty is a bit more comfortable getting up 3s up at volume already than his brother was at this point last year. Athletically, there are some similar concerns here in terms of foot speed that Keegan has, and Kris is not quite as effective on the ball as Keegan was, especially driving play out in transition. But Kris Murray has every look of a top-20 player in this class. Guys with plus positional size who can shoot: That’s what NBA teams are looking for, and he has it. Don’t be surprised to see his name get hotter on draft boards if he keeps up this ridiculous 20 and 10 production.
19. Sacramento Kings
Max Lewis | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Pepperdine
After almost two decades without a non-Gonzaga first-round pick, the WCC might be set to go back-to-back in Round 1 with Jalen Williams last season and Lewis this season. It’s hard to find wings with legitimate positional size and NBA-level athleticism and length who can hit shots off movement. Lewis is averaging 20 points while shooting 52 percent from the field, 42 percent from 3 on five 3-point attempts per game and over 85 percent from the line. He’s also developed a little bully-ball mid-post game that he uses to great effect, even if it might not fly at the next level. Lewis’ feel for the game sometimes leaves a bit to be desired, particularly on the defensive end, where the less said about Pepperdine’s defensive infrastructure, the better. But he scores, doing it in ways that are impactful toward a potential NBA role as a floor-spacing wing. He also crashes the glass at a high level. That’s worthy of a first-round pick as long as he keeps this up.
20. Indiana Pacers
Taylor Hendricks | 6-9 forward | 19 years old | UCF
Hendricks, along with Sensabaugh, is one of the true breakout players of this 2023 draft class. A 6-9 four man who was a late riser up recruiting boards, Hendricks has emerged as a potential one-and-done largely due to his shooting and movement skills while also being a high-level weakside rim protector. He’s hitting 39.4 percent from 3 so far, and the shot looks very clean. The big question that he could go toward answering in the next few months is how well he handles the ball and reads plays as a passer. Scouts are still trying to get a feel for whether he has some upside on the wing long term or if he’s more likely to be position-locked at the four. But scouts have loved what they’ve seen in what has become a relatively question-filled class.
21. New York Knicks (via DAL)
Baba Miller | 6-11 wing | 19 years old | Florida State
Scouts have gotten more and more excited about Miller as the season has gone on, largely due to the dearth of other potential options out there on the board. Miller is a Spanish wing/forward with legitimate ball skills and plus positional size at 6-11, a combination that teams are increasingly excited about drafting in today’s modern NBA. Miller was suspended for the first 16 games of the college basketball season under archaic, ridiculous stipulations regarding $3,000 worth of expenses for a trip to the United States to train in 2020. As soon as Miller realized it was against NCAA rules, he paid the money back. Still, the NCAA suspended him for half of the season despite the fact that Florida State gained no unfair recruiting advantage and individual players are making hundreds of thousands in name, image and likeness money. Regardless, scouts will flock to Tallahassee to see Florida State play Virginia this weekend to get eyes on one of this draft’s great curiosities.
22. New York Knicks
Jordan Hawkins | 6-5 wing | 21 years old | Connecticut
Hawkins has been wildly impressive this season for Connecticut, a 6-5 sniper from distance who has a case as one of the best movement shooters in this draft class. Hawkins fires up nearly eight 3-point attempts per game, many of which are off intricate screening action, and makes them at a 39.3 percent clip. He’s also a pretty sharp defender with real NBA athleticism and solid instincts. The big question is whether he can handle the ball and attack closeouts regularly while also making solid reads as a passer off these actions. He’s gotten much better at this throughout the season, but he’s not quite there yet. Still, it’s hard to find wing-sized movement shooters who can defend. That’ll make Hawkins worth a top-40 pick at the very least.
23. Brooklyn Nets (via PHI)
Colby Jones | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | Xavier
I feel like I’m a broken record hyping up Jones, but after three years, it finally looks ready to pay off. Jones is the driving force on one of the more underrated teams in the country. Sean Miller has really evolved as an offensive coach and empowered Jones with the ball in his hands next to two bigs and a combo guard in Souley Boum. Jones is super versatile, as he’s hitting 44 percent of his limited 3-point attempts, can handle some lead guard duties while averaging 5.7 assists and can drive to finish both in transition and in the half court while averaging 14 points per game. He and Penn State point guard Jalen Pickett are the only high-major players in the country averaging 14 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists, and he’s doing it at a very efficient level. I’d bet on him as a do-it-all wing who’s versatile with a great frame and well-rounded game.
24. Los Angeles Lakers (via NOP)
Terquavion Smith | 6-4 guard | 20 years old | NC State
Smith has had a bit of a roller-coaster season so far for the Wolfpack, and scouts are starting to worry a bit. On the plus side, he’s averaging almost 19 points per game and has taken a leap as a passer. He’s dishing out 4.8 assists per game on a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. That ability to potentially slide to the point guard spot as opposed to the combo guard role in the NBA is critical for him. However, teams remain a bit worried about his frame, as he’s still only 165 pounds and really struggles through contact a bit as a finisher and to hold his ground on defense. In general, whether or not Smith will be able to guard is the big concern for the next level. He’s also creating a ton of 3s but only making them at a 34.5 percent clip. I’m still a believer in the instant offense he provides. Scouts seem to be more in the late-first-round range on Smith.
25. Indiana Pacers (via CLE)
Marcus Sasser | 6-2 guard | 22 years old | Houston
Sasser is having a pedestrian shooting season by his standards, having hit only 33 percent from 3. But it’s hard not to love his game, and I think someone ends up falling in love with him during the pre-draft process — as a few teams did last year before he decided to return to Houston. He’s still a tough shot creator who can get to his pull-up almost at will. He’s more of a scoring guard, but he’s made some strides as a decision-maker, getting rid of a lot of bad shots and limiting his turnovers. On top of that, he’s terrific on defense at the point of attack. He’s one of the best guards in the country at navigating screens and fighting around them while being disruptive. He might end up being more of a high-end backup, but Sasser is the best player on the best team in the country, and you can expect that he’ll be there at the end leading Houston to a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
26. Houston Rockets (via MIL)
Kel’el Ware | 7-0 center | 19 years old | Oregon
I remain very intrigued by Ware largely due to the versatility of skill set. He’s a superb athlete with great balance and movement skills at 7-foot tall. On top of that, he blocks shots, shoots 3s and even shows a couple of flashes as a passer. I’m not totally sure he made the right college decision because he often doesn’t get to play his best position (center) due to Oregon already having N’Faly Dante. You’d also like to see him finish with more force around the basket. But there are worse bets to take than a 7-footer with skill-set versatility and this type of athleticism. He’s a project big worth investing in, even if the numbers are a bit pedestrian at 8.6 points and 4.9 rebounds per game.
27. Memphis Grizzlies
Leonard Miller | 6-10 wing | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Welcome to the first round, Leonard Miller. Miller has had a fascinating season so far for the Ignite. Entering the G League after essentially playing point guard for his scholastic team in Canada, Miller has had to adjust to playing without the ball more often, and he’s actually done so at a reasonable level to this point for a teenager playing his first season of professional basketball. He’s averaging about 15 points and nine rebounds per night and generally does a pretty good job of doing the dirty work that comes with playing as a hybrid wing/big in their scheme — occasionally leading the break, spacing to the corners, playing through screens and attacking out of the dunker spot. He’s not all that explosive athletically, but he makes up for it with great balance and a 6-10 frame that comes with a 7-2 wingspan and a 9-foot standing reach. If Miller shoots, he’ll be a really solid player in the NBA due to his height and ball skills. But I’m pretty skeptical on the shot mechanics, as it’s a push shot with a low release point and a lot of off-hand interaction. NBA teams are definitely interested in the size/skill intersection, though.
28. Utah Jazz (via BKN)
Terrence Shannon Jr. | 6-6 wing | 22 years old | Illinois
Shannon and Illinois have been a bit inconsistent this season, but scouts have long been a fan of his tools. He’s 6-6 and is one of the best athletes on the court every time he steps on it. Defensively, he does a good job of keeping his man in front of him, and he’s switchable onto a variety of players. Offensively, he’s a good transition player and a sharp cutter. Ultimately, this comes down to the shot. Shannon is averaging almost 18 points per game for Illinois and shooting 34 percent from 3 on over five 3-point attempts per game. But the results have been very streaky. He has the game against UCLA where he was 8-of-9 from 3 but also has 0-for-5 outings against Maryland and Missouri. Then, he’s five for his last 10 in his previous three games. It’s all over the map, and you never know which one you’re going to get on a game-to-game basis right now. If Shannon irons out that consistency, it’d go a long way toward locking him into the first round. Right now, he’s firmly in that great big No. 20 to No. 45 range.
29. Charlotte Hornets (via DEN)
Kyle Filipowski | 6-11 big | 19 years old | Duke
Filipowski has been the most impressive Duke freshman this season, a pillar of consistency in what has been a largely inconsistent year. He’s averaging 14 points and nine rebounds per game while showcasingd real playmaking ability with the ball in his hands. He can run offense as a ballhandler, run dribble-handoffs as a big, create plays off drives and attack mismatches on the block in post-ups. There is some potential here as a pick-and-pop weapon, although he’s only made 26 percent of his 3s to this point. A bet on Filipowski is a bet on getting a versatile big man who can help you in a lot of different mismatch capacities offensively in the right matchups while hopefully being able to hold up with his movement on the perimeter. He has good hands and is more athletic than he gets credit for. Still, he doesn’t have the elite measurables for a rim protector, and teams want to see more from him there.
30. Indiana Pacers (via BOS)
DaRon Holmes II | 6-10 big | 20 years old | Dayton
Holmes had a bit of a tough start to the season, but he’s been monster over his last 11 games, averaging 23.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, two assists and two blocks while drawing eight free throws per game and making 64.2 percent of his shots. He looks every bit the breakout big man he was anticipated to be this season, and this coincides with the team winning nine of its past past games. He’s a smart passer, a sharp rim protector and a versatile weapon who can move away from the rim. His shot is clearly improving. There is a real versatility of skill set here that allows Holmes to potentially be a good bet as a rotation player in the NBA.
Second Round
31. Indiana Pacers (via HOU): Dillon Mitchell | 6-7 wing | Texas
32. Detroit Pistons: Nikola Đurišić | 6-8 wing | KK Mega Basket
33. Philadelphia 76ers (via CHA): Dereck Lively II | 7-1 center | Duke
34. San Antonio Spurs: Kevin McCullar Jr. | 6-6 wing | Kansas
35. Orlando Magic: Andre Jackson Jr. | 6-6 wing | Connecticut
36. Toronto Raptors: Sidy Cissoko | 6-7 wing | G League Ignite
37. Oklahoma City Thunder (via WAS): Jalen Hood-Schifino | 6-5 wing | Indiana
38. Denver Nuggets (via OKC): Jalen Wilson | 6-8 wing | Kansas
39. Los Angeles Lakers: Julian Strawther | 6-7 wing | Gonzaga
40. Los Angeles Lakers (via CHI): Emoni Bates | 6-9 wing | Eastern Michigan
41. Atlanta Hawks: Ricky Council IV | 6-7 wing | Arkansas
42. Memphis Grizzlies (via MIN): Zach Edey | 7-4 center | Purdue
43. Charlotte Hornets (via UTA): Coleman Hawkins | 6-10 big | Illinois
44. Boston Celtics (via POR): Jaylen Clark | 6-5 wing | UCLA
45. LA Clippers: Bryce Hopkins | 6-7 wing/forward | Providence
46. Cleveland Cavaliers (via GSW): Reece Beekman | 6-3 guard | Virginia
47. Denver Nuggets (via MIA): Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 6-7 guard | UCLA
48. Phoenix Suns: Tyrese Hunter | 6-0 guard | Texas
49. Sacramento Kings : Mike Miles | 6-1 guard | TCU
50. Minnesota Timberwolves (via NYK): Caleb Love | 6-4 guard | North Carolina
51. Sacramento Kings (via IND): Tucker DeVries | 6-7 wing | Drake
52. Boston Celtics (via DAL): James Nnaji | 6-10 center | Barcelona
53. Atlanta Hawks (via NOP): Colin Castleton | 6-11 big | Florida
54. Milwaukee Bucks: Adam Flagler | 6-3 guard | Baylor
55. Milwaukee Bucks (via CLE): Tristan Vukčević | 7-0 big | KK Partizan
56. Memphis Grizzlies: Ąžuolas Tubelis | 6-11 big | Arizona
57. Brooklyn Nets: Drew Timme | 6-10 big | Gonzaga
58. Boston Celtics: Jalen Pickett | 6-4 guard | Penn State
What a time to update the 2023 NBA Mock Draft here at The Athletic.
We’re firmly into conference play in college hoops, and outside of the top two selections, which seem relatively set in stone with Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, this class figures to be a bit of a question mark still. Injuries have caused significant questions for many of the top players in the class. Villanova wing Cam Whitmore and Duke wing Dariq Whitehead both missed a significant part of the non-conference season before returning. Arkansas guard Nick Smith has missed a large part of the season due to knee soreness. Those are three potential lottery picks who have been a bit slow to start the season.
On top of that, this college basketball season is littered with parity but hasn’t really featured a large number of standout performances from players in premium positions that NBA teams tend to value in the draft — particularly on the wings and in the backcourt. Enough players have stood out to where there are about 19 or so evaluators feel relatively confident are first-round picks at this point, but beyond that, the draft gets very uncertain. There is a lot of space in the back third of the first round for players to emerge and turn themselves into first-round picks. I would imagine multiple players who are not currently listed here will develop and get more comfortable on their way to getting guaranteed contracts in the NBA next season. This thing truly is wide open as scouts try to identify higher-end talents.
Evaluators, however, believe this is a strong group likely to be selected through the lottery and thus are considering this a strong draft class. From an elite top-two prospects all the way through the relatively high-upside back half of the lottery, scouts are excited about the talent that will enter the NBA next season. There does seem to be a bit more buzz about this draft than the early returns on the 2024 and 2025 iterations, so don’t be surprised to see teams try to hold onto top-20 picks in this class if they can.
With that being said, here is the current projection. Stats and records are through Jan. 10; ages listed are as of draft day (June 22):
1. Houston Rockets
Victor Wembanyama | 7-4 center | 19 years old | Metropolitans 92
Wembanyama is the no-doubter at No. 1 for everyone. He has a very real case to be the best prospect since LeBron James given his size, shot-creation skill, tools on defense and production. The 7-foot-4 French center has averaged 22.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and three blocks per game, all of which currently lead the French League. He’s also shooting 47.9 percent from the field and about 80 percent from the foul line while getting up over five 3-point attempts per game — many of which are self-created opportunities off the bounce. I’ve delved deep into Wembanyama following his games against the G League Ignite earlier this season, so if you’re looking for a fuller picture of this dynamic, shot-creating, rim-protecting super-giant who can shoot and dominate games, look there. In terms of potential weaknesses, the occasional scout has pointed to his passing and ability to make reads on the move, as well as the consistency of his shot. But I’ve yet to talk to one who doesn’t see these skills as likely to be improved as he ages. As long as Wembanyama stays healthy long term — something he’s done so far this season after a bit of a history of picking up injuries here and there — Wembanyama is a franchise-altering talent whose acquisition would completely change the fortunes of whichever team acquires him.
2. Detroit Pistons
Scoot Henderson | 6-2 lead guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Henderson is the no-doubter No. 2 prospect in this class, a player who pretty clearly would have gone first overall in both the 2022 and 2020 NBA drafts. He’s a wildly explosive athlete on the level of guys like Ja Morant and Derrick Rose at the lead guard position, while also possessing immense skill and feel for the game as a passer and playmaker. First, though, the athleticism. This dunk he threw down last week showcases everything you need to know about the kind of athlete Henderson is.
Beyond that, Henderson is averaging over 20 points while shooting just under 50 percent from the field and dishing out six assists per game with a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio as a teenager in the G League. He is by far the most successful preps-to-G-League story we’ve seen thus far and looks ready to step into the NBA as a starting point guard potentially as soon as next season. The one flaw that evaluators will point to is the shooting from distance, but Henderson has a well-developed midrange pull-up game that he can get at will, and in time, scouts believe he will be able to add to his repertoire from behind the 3-point line to stop teams from going way under his screens.
3. San Antonio Spurs
Amen Thompson | 6-7 lead guard | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
This is where the questions start. Thompson is the highest-upside player remaining. He’ll enter the NBA as a top 1 percent athlete in the league, and that is not an exaggeration. It’s hard to overemphasize his mix of explosiveness, quick-twitch, shiftiness and body control at his size. He’s truly special in the way he can fly up and down the court, shift gears as a playmaker and then quickly rise up with power and grace within the run of play. He has every athletic tool you could want. Beyond that, Thompson is also a highly impressive live-dribble passer and finisher at the rim. He is a walking paint touch who throws live-dribble kickouts and lobs from any angle with both hands and is also a threat to creatively score around legitimate rim protectors. The big question here is the jumper. Thompson’s jumper is very messy at this point and will require substantial developmental work by the team that selects him. Even then, it’s unlikely to ever be a first choice for him. But he does at least need the threat. If that threat comes, there is genuine All-NBA upside with Thompson. If it doesn’t, I still think he’s likely to be a starting quality point guard, but it’ll limit his effectiveness to an extent.
4. Charlotte Hornets
Cam Whitmore | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Villanova
Whitmore is an absurdly explosive wing, with terrific bounce and body control to create shots off the bounce and off drives with impressive hang-time finishes. Having said that, Whitmore has gotten off to a slow start at Villanova, averaging 13 points and five rebounds while shooting 49 percent from the field and 31 percent from 3. His touch looks good, but the shots just have been inconsistent, potentially the product of a thumb injury in the preseason that saw him miss Villanova’s first seven games and just recently enter the starting lineup after getting acclimated to college basketball under new coach Kyle Neptune. Teams are constantly on the lookout for shot-creating wings, and I’m still a believer in Whitmore’s game and think we’ll see more of the 26-point outbursts that he had against Xavier as the season progresses.
5. Orlando Magic
Brandon Miller | 6-9 wing | 20 years old | Alabama
Miller is arguably the breakout freshman star of the college season so far, leading the Crimson Tide to a 13-2 record and a top-five ranking in the country. A 6-9 shot-creating sniper from distance, Miller is hitting 43.5 percent of his seven 3-point attempts per game while averaging 19 points and 8.5 rebounds. Defensively, Miller is solid in space as a switchable combo forward and should continue to grow as his lower half gets stronger. It’s that lower body and core strength that cultivates Miller’s biggest flaw, as he’s really struggled to finish inside the 3-point arc, making just 43 percent of his shots from 2-point range. I’m less concerned about that than others for a few reasons. First, I think as Miller gets stronger, it’ll be harder to knock him off his driving lines and arrest his momentum as he gathers for finishes. Second, I think his footwork on drives could stand to use some refinement, and it’s a fixable issue as he continues to improve. Miller moves like an NBA player out there, with real control over the ball and the ability to handle in space and string out switch defenders to create mismatches. If his strength comes through his lower half, he has a real chance to be a dynamic scoring threat who can hold his own on defense with plus positional size. Even if that strength doesn’t come, he still projects as a floor-spacing wing who can hold his own on defense. It’s hard to see him fail.
6. Toronto Raptors
Ausar Thompson | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
Similarly to his brother above, Ausar Thompson is a terrific athlete. Whereas Amen is a top-1 percent athlete, I’d say Ausar is more of a top-10 percent athlete in the NBA on the wing — a dynamic player who can be dangerous in transition, a threat as a driver and a pesky deterrent on defense. Ausar Thompson is also a very high-level passer and ball-mover who typically makes the unselfish decision and keeps the offense in flow. Also similar to his brother, the big question is the shot, but Ausar is not the walking paint touch that Amen is athletically; thus, the jumper is more important to his game long term. The good news is that Ausar’s jumper is further along than Amen’s. The bad news is that it’s still hit or miss, and he goes through stretches when he can’t hit anything. Most NBA teams I talk to are very high on Ausar’s upside and buy him this high up the board. I’m a touch more skeptical, as I think the floor could be a bit low if the shot doesn’t come around. But most of the scouts I’ve talked to have him in the No. 5 to No. 10 range at this point.
7. Washington Wizards
Cason Wallace | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
Wallace is a pure gamer and someone scouts buy turning into a terrific, starting-quality guard for a long time due to his shooting and elite defense. He’s one of the best defenders in the class — a master of anticipatory help away from the ball and aggressive physicality on the ball. He has the upside of an All-Defense level guard. Offensively, Wallace is much more comfortable as a catch-and-shoot weapon right now, taking shots directly off the hop on spot-ups and hitting his five attempts per game from 3 at a 42 percent clip. But he can also attack off the bounce a bit and run ball screens when necessary. He’s a strong straight-line driver and a sharp passer who makes terrific reads. Wallace profiles really well as a starting guard who does all of the little things on top of knocking down shots next to an elite player. I’d bet he’s a piece of some really good, winning teams.
8. Oklahoma City Thunder
Jarace Walker | 6-8 forward | 19 years old | Houston
Walker is rising quickly for NBA scouts as he becomes more aggressive offensively. At 6-8 with a 7-2 wingspan, he has a rugged frame that looks ready to deal with the rigors of the NBA from Day 1. Defensively, he has all the tools scouts look for as a switchable on-ball player who also flies around in help and makes his presence felt all over the court. But it’s the recent offense that has turned some front-office heads, as Walker had back-to-back games over 20 points against SMU and Cincinnati, showcasing real skills as a driver with touch as a finisher. He’s also shown flashes as a shooter from distance, hitting 40 percent of his 3s, although I think it’ll take a bit more time for him to consistently stretch out defenses from 3. Teams that tend to invest in guys with plus positional size and toughness will be big fans of Walker and his game.
9. New Orleans Pelicans (via LAL)
Nick Smith Jr. | 6-4 combo guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
We haven’t gotten a chance to see a ton of Smith this season due to a right knee concern that has held him out of all but five games. Those five games were relatively hit or miss; Smith did a good job of using his footwork and creativity to create shots, but we didn’t see a ton of passing or playmaking or see him consistently knock down 3s at a high level. Scouts want to see him get back on the court to showcase that he’s more than a volume scorer and tough-shot maker. Hopefully we’ll get that chance. If he gets back out there, he could rise pretty substantially up the board. But there are more questions about Smith than were expected in the preseason given his reputation as a top-five player in the recruiting class. Anywhere in the lottery outside of the top three seems like a reasonable range right now.
10. Orlando Magic (via CHI)
Dariq Whitehead | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Duke
Another difficult judgment. Whitehead was hurt at the start of the season and missed Duke’s first set of games. Then, he came back off the bench and didn’t quite look as explosive following his foot injury. The fluidity and bounce he showed at lower levels wasn’t quite as good, which had an impact on his overall scoring game. But he’s started to look a bit like the old Whitehead in recent games. Over Duke’s last four, Whitehead has averaged 15 points while shooting 47 percent from the field and 42 percent from 3. His game against Boston College last Saturday was his best performance of the season so far, scoring 18 points and flashing some pull-up ability, off-ball cutting and sharper movement in general. I’d still bet on Whitehead going in the lottery, and he has a chance to rise much higher if things really break right with his season. It would be good for him to continue to perform and make scouts’ jobs easier as opposed to making them try to figure out how much stock they’d need to take in what was setting up to be a disappointing freshman season in his first eight games.
11. Atlanta Hawks
Anthony Black | 6-7 guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
Confession time: Black is the exact kind of player I tend to overvalue. He has plus positional size as a 6-7 guard who can play point and initiate offense. He processes the game at an elite level, constantly making the right read and play. He defends at an exceptionally high level as a switchable player you can utilize on a variety of different players. He pressures the paint and has real athleticism. I love everything about Black’s game but one thing: He struggles to shoot it right now. He has real touch, but the mechanics are messy and are going to require real work. If he can work through those and get the most out of his touch, I buy Black becoming a really good player on good teams. But the jumper is going to be a hole he has to fix.
12. Utah Jazz (via MIN)
Keyonte George | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Baylor
George is starting to come on recently, averaging 21.5 points over his last four games. But he’s also been extremely inefficient and hasn’t looked quite as athletic as was hoped coming into the season. He has all sorts of tricks in his toolbox, but he’s struggled a bit to get free from his man when going forward to try to finish at the rim. He does a great job of playing in between paces and dribbles, rising up for pull-up jumpers before defenders are ready to contest. But those shots haven’t quite fallen enough. The good news is he’s getting to the foul line a ton and deriving easy points that way because he gets defenders in awkward positions. But scouts aren’t totally sure what to make of George’s inefficiency. Baylor has lost some tight games to start Big 12 play, and it’ll be critical for the Bears to get on the right track. I’m still a believer in George, which is why I have him at No. 12. But scouts do diverge on him a bit, worrying about what the overall skill package looks like if the shot doesn’t come through.
13. Utah Jazz
Gradey **** | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Kansas
**** has been terrific this season and has a very real case as the best shooter in this draft class. At 6-8, he’s huge for a floor-spacing wing and has an extremely high release point on his jumper that makes it very difficult to contest. He makes them off movement and generates a lot of open shots while averaging 14 points and shooting an absurd 47 percent from 3. But he’s more than a pure gunner, as he can attack a bit off the bounce and relocate into 3s or drive and hit live-dribble passes to his teammates. The issue is that he has real strength-based concerns on defense and could be a player teams try to attack in the NBA. He’s been better on defense than a couple of the wings below him, like Brice Sensabaugh and Jett Howard, simply because he knows where he needs to be consistently and uses his size as much as he can. But if he doesn’t get much stronger or quicker, he could be enough of a liability to cause issues. Still, the offensive skill set is so high-level that he has to be this high. He’s a lights-out shooter by any level’s standard.
14. Portland Trail Blazers
Brice Sensabaugh | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Ohio State
Sensabaugh is a fascinating process versus results study. On a production basis, Miller is basically the only freshman to have outperformed Sensabaugh so far, as the Florida native is averaging 16.7 points on 52 percent from the field, 43 percent from 3 and 80 percent from the line. And a lot of those shots are tough shots that he’s self-creating in the midrange and knocking down over a tight defender. But … a lot of those shots are tough shots, and that’s a really hard way to make a living at the next level. The process is hard. Only the best of the best can do it. So far, Sensabaugh has been that. But what happens if the midrange shot starts to fall at a lesser clip? He’d still be a great 3-point shooter who can create shots, but the package becomes less enticing when also paired with his defense, which is really poor. Purdue relentlessly attacked him in the second half of a recent game that the Buckeyes couldn’t hang onto late. But on some level, the results are just too good to pass up at a certain point. That point right now for me is here. It could end up being much higher or lower at the end of the season. But Sensabaugh has firmly established himself as a potential lottery pick.
15. LA Clippers
Gregory “GG” Jackson | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | South Carolina
Jackson is one of the more polarizing players in the class for scouts right now. Some will point to the pure counting numbers he’s putting up as an 18-year-old playing college basketball a year ahead of schedule, averaging 15.8 points and seven rebounds per game. He’s also shown some impressive moments as a 3-point shooter with NBA range. But others will point to the fact that he has been incredibly inefficient and struggled to do anything resembling winning basketball. He’s the centerpiece of South Carolina’s offense, and the Gamecocks cater everything around him (a lot of the time to the detriment of the team, given that he struggles to make passing reads and turns it over often with a near 1-to-5 assist-to-turnover ratio). That has led to the 250th-best offense in the country, according to KenPom. That’s the third-worst high-major offense. What Jackson is right now, in this situation, is not what he’ll be in the NBA. But what can he be once he gets there? That’s what scouts are trying to figure out — how to separate the context of Jackson’s situation from his struggles and talent. He is all over the map.
16. Phoenix Suns
Jett Howard | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Michigan
Howard ticks a lot of boxes for teams looking to add to their wing rotation. He has plus positional size for the wing at 6-8 and hits shots at an exceedingly high level off movement with a beautiful, fluid stroke. On top of that, he’s a really sharp passer who can make plays off the bounce, especially off some of the zoom actions Michigan runs when he gets the ball coming off a pin-down and takes dribble-handoffs to get some penetration into the paint. He’s not a great athlete, though. It’s hard to see him truly separating right now from his man. But he does have some shake that he could grow into. The defense pushes him slightly outside of the lottery for me — he really struggles with his quickness to guard — but Howard is terrific and possesses many skills that evaluators covet.
17. Miami Heat
Rayan Rupert | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | New Zealand Breakers
This is where the questions really start on this draft board. Rupert has missed a bit of time recently due to a broken wrist but returned last week and played splendidly in his first game back, dropping 14 points. In both of his games back so far, he’s made multiple 3s, an important sign for a player who projects as a terrific 3-and-D prospect. Rupert is 6-7 with a ridiculous 7-3 wingspan and defends at a super high level on the ball while using his length to cut off angles in help situations. He’s also regarded as a very high-character player who works hard and is extremely competitive. With the number of teams looking for wings like him who can defend four positions and potentially make shots, Rupert makes sense as a developmental pick to take a chance on once you get outside of the lottery.
18. Golden State Warriors
Kris Murray | 6-8 wing | 22 years old | Iowa
Murray missed a bit of time earlier this season with a left foot injury, but he’s been remarkably good in the moments he’s been on the court. He’s doing a fairly reasonable impression of his brother Keegan Murray from last season, averaging 21 points and nearly 10 rebounds while shooting 52 percent from the field and 39 percent from 3. He’s dropped over 30 points four times this season, and the smooth lefty is a bit more comfortable getting up 3s up at volume already than his brother was at this point last year. Athletically, there are some similar concerns here in terms of foot speed that Keegan has, and Kris is not quite as effective on the ball as Keegan was, especially driving play out in transition. But Kris Murray has every look of a top-20 player in this class. Guys with plus positional size who can shoot: That’s what NBA teams are looking for, and he has it. Don’t be surprised to see his name get hotter on draft boards if he keeps up this ridiculous 20 and 10 production.
19. Sacramento Kings
Max Lewis | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Pepperdine
After almost two decades without a non-Gonzaga first-round pick, the WCC might be set to go back-to-back in Round 1 with Jalen Williams last season and Lewis this season. It’s hard to find wings with legitimate positional size and NBA-level athleticism and length who can hit shots off movement. Lewis is averaging 20 points while shooting 52 percent from the field, 42 percent from 3 on five 3-point attempts per game and over 85 percent from the line. He’s also developed a little bully-ball mid-post game that he uses to great effect, even if it might not fly at the next level. Lewis’ feel for the game sometimes leaves a bit to be desired, particularly on the defensive end, where the less said about Pepperdine’s defensive infrastructure, the better. But he scores, doing it in ways that are impactful toward a potential NBA role as a floor-spacing wing. He also crashes the glass at a high level. That’s worthy of a first-round pick as long as he keeps this up.
20. Indiana Pacers
Taylor Hendricks | 6-9 forward | 19 years old | UCF
Hendricks, along with Sensabaugh, is one of the true breakout players of this 2023 draft class. A 6-9 four man who was a late riser up recruiting boards, Hendricks has emerged as a potential one-and-done largely due to his shooting and movement skills while also being a high-level weakside rim protector. He’s hitting 39.4 percent from 3 so far, and the shot looks very clean. The big question that he could go toward answering in the next few months is how well he handles the ball and reads plays as a passer. Scouts are still trying to get a feel for whether he has some upside on the wing long term or if he’s more likely to be position-locked at the four. But scouts have loved what they’ve seen in what has become a relatively question-filled class.
21. New York Knicks (via DAL)
Baba Miller | 6-11 wing | 19 years old | Florida State
Scouts have gotten more and more excited about Miller as the season has gone on, largely due to the dearth of other potential options out there on the board. Miller is a Spanish wing/forward with legitimate ball skills and plus positional size at 6-11, a combination that teams are increasingly excited about drafting in today’s modern NBA. Miller was suspended for the first 16 games of the college basketball season under archaic, ridiculous stipulations regarding $3,000 worth of expenses for a trip to the United States to train in 2020. As soon as Miller realized it was against NCAA rules, he paid the money back. Still, the NCAA suspended him for half of the season despite the fact that Florida State gained no unfair recruiting advantage and individual players are making hundreds of thousands in name, image and likeness money. Regardless, scouts will flock to Tallahassee to see Florida State play Virginia this weekend to get eyes on one of this draft’s great curiosities.
22. New York Knicks
Jordan Hawkins | 6-5 wing | 21 years old | Connecticut
Hawkins has been wildly impressive this season for Connecticut, a 6-5 sniper from distance who has a case as one of the best movement shooters in this draft class. Hawkins fires up nearly eight 3-point attempts per game, many of which are off intricate screening action, and makes them at a 39.3 percent clip. He’s also a pretty sharp defender with real NBA athleticism and solid instincts. The big question is whether he can handle the ball and attack closeouts regularly while also making solid reads as a passer off these actions. He’s gotten much better at this throughout the season, but he’s not quite there yet. Still, it’s hard to find wing-sized movement shooters who can defend. That’ll make Hawkins worth a top-40 pick at the very least.
23. Brooklyn Nets (via PHI)
Colby Jones | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | Xavier
I feel like I’m a broken record hyping up Jones, but after three years, it finally looks ready to pay off. Jones is the driving force on one of the more underrated teams in the country. Sean Miller has really evolved as an offensive coach and empowered Jones with the ball in his hands next to two bigs and a combo guard in Souley Boum. Jones is super versatile, as he’s hitting 44 percent of his limited 3-point attempts, can handle some lead guard duties while averaging 5.7 assists and can drive to finish both in transition and in the half court while averaging 14 points per game. He and Penn State point guard Jalen Pickett are the only high-major players in the country averaging 14 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists, and he’s doing it at a very efficient level. I’d bet on him as a do-it-all wing who’s versatile with a great frame and well-rounded game.
24. Los Angeles Lakers (via NOP)
Terquavion Smith | 6-4 guard | 20 years old | NC State
Smith has had a bit of a roller-coaster season so far for the Wolfpack, and scouts are starting to worry a bit. On the plus side, he’s averaging almost 19 points per game and has taken a leap as a passer. He’s dishing out 4.8 assists per game on a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. That ability to potentially slide to the point guard spot as opposed to the combo guard role in the NBA is critical for him. However, teams remain a bit worried about his frame, as he’s still only 165 pounds and really struggles through contact a bit as a finisher and to hold his ground on defense. In general, whether or not Smith will be able to guard is the big concern for the next level. He’s also creating a ton of 3s but only making them at a 34.5 percent clip. I’m still a believer in the instant offense he provides. Scouts seem to be more in the late-first-round range on Smith.
25. Indiana Pacers (via CLE)
Marcus Sasser | 6-2 guard | 22 years old | Houston
Sasser is having a pedestrian shooting season by his standards, having hit only 33 percent from 3. But it’s hard not to love his game, and I think someone ends up falling in love with him during the pre-draft process — as a few teams did last year before he decided to return to Houston. He’s still a tough shot creator who can get to his pull-up almost at will. He’s more of a scoring guard, but he’s made some strides as a decision-maker, getting rid of a lot of bad shots and limiting his turnovers. On top of that, he’s terrific on defense at the point of attack. He’s one of the best guards in the country at navigating screens and fighting around them while being disruptive. He might end up being more of a high-end backup, but Sasser is the best player on the best team in the country, and you can expect that he’ll be there at the end leading Houston to a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
26. Houston Rockets (via MIL)
Kel’el Ware | 7-0 center | 19 years old | Oregon
I remain very intrigued by Ware largely due to the versatility of skill set. He’s a superb athlete with great balance and movement skills at 7-foot tall. On top of that, he blocks shots, shoots 3s and even shows a couple of flashes as a passer. I’m not totally sure he made the right college decision because he often doesn’t get to play his best position (center) due to Oregon already having N’Faly Dante. You’d also like to see him finish with more force around the basket. But there are worse bets to take than a 7-footer with skill-set versatility and this type of athleticism. He’s a project big worth investing in, even if the numbers are a bit pedestrian at 8.6 points and 4.9 rebounds per game.
27. Memphis Grizzlies
Leonard Miller | 6-10 wing | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Welcome to the first round, Leonard Miller. Miller has had a fascinating season so far for the Ignite. Entering the G League after essentially playing point guard for his scholastic team in Canada, Miller has had to adjust to playing without the ball more often, and he’s actually done so at a reasonable level to this point for a teenager playing his first season of professional basketball. He’s averaging about 15 points and nine rebounds per night and generally does a pretty good job of doing the dirty work that comes with playing as a hybrid wing/big in their scheme — occasionally leading the break, spacing to the corners, playing through screens and attacking out of the dunker spot. He’s not all that explosive athletically, but he makes up for it with great balance and a 6-10 frame that comes with a 7-2 wingspan and a 9-foot standing reach. If Miller shoots, he’ll be a really solid player in the NBA due to his height and ball skills. But I’m pretty skeptical on the shot mechanics, as it’s a push shot with a low release point and a lot of off-hand interaction. NBA teams are definitely interested in the size/skill intersection, though.
28. Utah Jazz (via BKN)
Terrence Shannon Jr. | 6-6 wing | 22 years old | Illinois
Shannon and Illinois have been a bit inconsistent this season, but scouts have long been a fan of his tools. He’s 6-6 and is one of the best athletes on the court every time he steps on it. Defensively, he does a good job of keeping his man in front of him, and he’s switchable onto a variety of players. Offensively, he’s a good transition player and a sharp cutter. Ultimately, this comes down to the shot. Shannon is averaging almost 18 points per game for Illinois and shooting 34 percent from 3 on over five 3-point attempts per game. But the results have been very streaky. He has the game against UCLA where he was 8-of-9 from 3 but also has 0-for-5 outings against Maryland and Missouri. Then, he’s five for his last 10 in his previous three games. It’s all over the map, and you never know which one you’re going to get on a game-to-game basis right now. If Shannon irons out that consistency, it’d go a long way toward locking him into the first round. Right now, he’s firmly in that great big No. 20 to No. 45 range.
29. Charlotte Hornets (via DEN)
Kyle Filipowski | 6-11 big | 19 years old | Duke
Filipowski has been the most impressive Duke freshman this season, a pillar of consistency in what has been a largely inconsistent year. He’s averaging 14 points and nine rebounds per game while showcasingd real playmaking ability with the ball in his hands. He can run offense as a ballhandler, run dribble-handoffs as a big, create plays off drives and attack mismatches on the block in post-ups. There is some potential here as a pick-and-pop weapon, although he’s only made 26 percent of his 3s to this point. A bet on Filipowski is a bet on getting a versatile big man who can help you in a lot of different mismatch capacities offensively in the right matchups while hopefully being able to hold up with his movement on the perimeter. He has good hands and is more athletic than he gets credit for. Still, he doesn’t have the elite measurables for a rim protector, and teams want to see more from him there.
30. Indiana Pacers (via BOS)
DaRon Holmes II | 6-10 big | 20 years old | Dayton
Holmes had a bit of a tough start to the season, but he’s been monster over his last 11 games, averaging 23.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, two assists and two blocks while drawing eight free throws per game and making 64.2 percent of his shots. He looks every bit the breakout big man he was anticipated to be this season, and this coincides with the team winning nine of its past past games. He’s a smart passer, a sharp rim protector and a versatile weapon who can move away from the rim. His shot is clearly improving. There is a real versatility of skill set here that allows Holmes to potentially be a good bet as a rotation player in the NBA.
Second Round
31. Indiana Pacers (via HOU): Dillon Mitchell | 6-7 wing | Texas
32. Detroit Pistons: Nikola Đurišić | 6-8 wing | KK Mega Basket
33. Philadelphia 76ers (via CHA): Dereck Lively II | 7-1 center | Duke
34. San Antonio Spurs: Kevin McCullar Jr. | 6-6 wing | Kansas
35. Orlando Magic: Andre Jackson Jr. | 6-6 wing | Connecticut
36. Toronto Raptors: Sidy Cissoko | 6-7 wing | G League Ignite
37. Oklahoma City Thunder (via WAS): Jalen Hood-Schifino | 6-5 wing | Indiana
38. Denver Nuggets (via OKC): Jalen Wilson | 6-8 wing | Kansas
39. Los Angeles Lakers: Julian Strawther | 6-7 wing | Gonzaga
40. Los Angeles Lakers (via CHI): Emoni Bates | 6-9 wing | Eastern Michigan
41. Atlanta Hawks: Ricky Council IV | 6-7 wing | Arkansas
42. Memphis Grizzlies (via MIN): Zach Edey | 7-4 center | Purdue
43. Charlotte Hornets (via UTA): Coleman Hawkins | 6-10 big | Illinois
44. Boston Celtics (via POR): Jaylen Clark | 6-5 wing | UCLA
45. LA Clippers: Bryce Hopkins | 6-7 wing/forward | Providence
46. Cleveland Cavaliers (via GSW): Reece Beekman | 6-3 guard | Virginia
47. Denver Nuggets (via MIA): Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 6-7 guard | UCLA
48. Phoenix Suns: Tyrese Hunter | 6-0 guard | Texas
49. Sacramento Kings : Mike Miles | 6-1 guard | TCU
50. Minnesota Timberwolves (via NYK): Caleb Love | 6-4 guard | North Carolina
51. Sacramento Kings (via IND): Tucker DeVries | 6-7 wing | Drake
52. Boston Celtics (via DAL): James Nnaji | 6-10 center | Barcelona
53. Atlanta Hawks (via NOP): Colin Castleton | 6-11 big | Florida
54. Milwaukee Bucks: Adam Flagler | 6-3 guard | Baylor
55. Milwaukee Bucks (via CLE): Tristan Vukčević | 7-0 big | KK Partizan
56. Memphis Grizzlies: Ąžuolas Tubelis | 6-11 big | Arizona
57. Brooklyn Nets: Drew Timme | 6-10 big | Gonzaga
58. Boston Celtics: Jalen Pickett | 6-4 guard | Penn State
If the Lakers take another guard, I'm going to murder someone.
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Opinions all over the place as predicted
George being out of the lottery seems noteworthy
George being out of the lottery seems noteworthy
HOU$TON
formerly convertibleburt
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Black at 3 is wild
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I hope Terquvion Smith ends up a lottery pick by years end...because otherwise I don't understand what the point of going back to school was.
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His efficiency got worse and he came back to a draft with more guys that play his same position
