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Japan has 512,000 fewer people this year than last, according to an estimate released on Tuesday by the country’s welfare ministry. That’s a drop of more than the entire population of the city of Atlanta.
The numbers are the latest sign of Japan’s increasing demographic challenges.
Births in the country — which are expected to drop below 900,000 this year — are at their lowest figure since 1874, when the population was about 70 percent smaller than its current 124 million.
The total number of deaths, on the other hand, is increasing. This year, the figure is expected to reach almost 1.4 million, the highest level since the end of World War II, a rise driven by the country’s increasingly elderly population.
That gap between births and deaths has put Japan in a demographic squeeze. As the number of births goes down, there are fewer young people entering its work force. That means fewer people to replace retiring workers and support them as they age, a situation that poses a serious threat to Japan’s economic vitality and the security of its social safety net.
Japan is not the only country having to cope with a shrinking society. It’s not even the country with the lowest birthrate: That title goes to South Korea. And other countries — including China and the United States — also face declining birthrates, which could spell trouble down the road.
But Japan is the world’s grayest nation: Almost 28 percent of its residents are over 65.
Japan has had some time to address the effects of its declining population — the country has been consistently shrinking since 2007. That year, the country’s population dipped by around 18,000 people.
Since then, however, the losses have accelerated, crossing the half-million mark this year for the first time. Across the nation, whole villages are vanishing as young people choose not to have children or move to urban areas in search of better employment opportunities.
And there is no end to the decline in sight. The government estimates that the population could shrink by around 16 million people — or nearly 13 percent — over the next 25 years.
In response, Japan has made efforts to push up its fertility rate — the average number of births per woman — from its current level of around 1.4 to a target of 1.8, still short of the 2.1 considered necessary to hold the population steady.
The government has moved to encourage births by increasing incentives for parents to have more children and reducing obstacles that might discourage those who want to.
But the incentives are proving insufficient as more people in Japan are putting off childbirth — or not having children at all — either to take advantage of economic opportunities or because they worry that economic opportunities do not exist and feel that they cannot afford children.
Even for those who do want to be parents, the hurdles remain daunting.
Demand for day care in the country far outstrips supply, making it difficult for working women to juggle careers and children. And working men who want to take advantage of the country’s generous paternity leave can find themselves stigmatized by an entrenched cultural belief that a man’s place is in the office, not in the home.
Adding to the government’s worries, marriage is on the decline. The number of marriages dropped by 3,000 year-on-year to 583,000, according to the data released on Tuesday, part of a steep decline over the last decade.
As births continue to drop, Japan has tried to promote robots as a supplement for its shrinking work force.
It has also committed to accepting limited numbers of immigrants to handle vital work such as caring for the elderly. This year the country began issuing more than a quarter-million visas to immigrants who will do such work.
www.nytimes.com
The numbers are the latest sign of Japan’s increasing demographic challenges.
Births in the country — which are expected to drop below 900,000 this year — are at their lowest figure since 1874, when the population was about 70 percent smaller than its current 124 million.
The total number of deaths, on the other hand, is increasing. This year, the figure is expected to reach almost 1.4 million, the highest level since the end of World War II, a rise driven by the country’s increasingly elderly population.
That gap between births and deaths has put Japan in a demographic squeeze. As the number of births goes down, there are fewer young people entering its work force. That means fewer people to replace retiring workers and support them as they age, a situation that poses a serious threat to Japan’s economic vitality and the security of its social safety net.
Japan is not the only country having to cope with a shrinking society. It’s not even the country with the lowest birthrate: That title goes to South Korea. And other countries — including China and the United States — also face declining birthrates, which could spell trouble down the road.
But Japan is the world’s grayest nation: Almost 28 percent of its residents are over 65.
Japan has had some time to address the effects of its declining population — the country has been consistently shrinking since 2007. That year, the country’s population dipped by around 18,000 people.
Since then, however, the losses have accelerated, crossing the half-million mark this year for the first time. Across the nation, whole villages are vanishing as young people choose not to have children or move to urban areas in search of better employment opportunities.
And there is no end to the decline in sight. The government estimates that the population could shrink by around 16 million people — or nearly 13 percent — over the next 25 years.
In response, Japan has made efforts to push up its fertility rate — the average number of births per woman — from its current level of around 1.4 to a target of 1.8, still short of the 2.1 considered necessary to hold the population steady.
The government has moved to encourage births by increasing incentives for parents to have more children and reducing obstacles that might discourage those who want to.
But the incentives are proving insufficient as more people in Japan are putting off childbirth — or not having children at all — either to take advantage of economic opportunities or because they worry that economic opportunities do not exist and feel that they cannot afford children.
Even for those who do want to be parents, the hurdles remain daunting.
Demand for day care in the country far outstrips supply, making it difficult for working women to juggle careers and children. And working men who want to take advantage of the country’s generous paternity leave can find themselves stigmatized by an entrenched cultural belief that a man’s place is in the office, not in the home.
Adding to the government’s worries, marriage is on the decline. The number of marriages dropped by 3,000 year-on-year to 583,000, according to the data released on Tuesday, part of a steep decline over the last decade.
As births continue to drop, Japan has tried to promote robots as a supplement for its shrinking work force.
It has also committed to accepting limited numbers of immigrants to handle vital work such as caring for the elderly. This year the country began issuing more than a quarter-million visas to immigrants who will do such work.
Japan Shrinks by 500,000 People as Births Fall to Lowest Number Since 1874 (Published 2019)
A widening gap between births and deaths has put Japan in a demographic squeeze, with fewer people to replace retiring workers and support them as they age.
