**LA LAKERS THREAD** Sitting on 17! 2023-2024 offseason begins

"Is there empirical evidence that smaller point guards decline faster than their larger peers? Lowry and CP3 seem to be going against this line of thinking, but almost every point guard historically seems to have been borderline unstartable after age 34, excepting Stockton, Nash, Kidd, Cassell and Mark Jackson (surprisingly solid age-36 season)."

-- Nick Kogan

The way I've studied this in the past is to look at ratio compared to peak winning percentage, the per-minute version of my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric. A few years ago, I put together a list of players who had played at least nine seasons and at least 10,000 minutes and ended their careers between 2005 and 2010.

That list had 21 players I labeled point guards. They divide rather evenly into 10 players 6-foot-2 or taller (the tall group) and 11 who were 6-foot-1 or shorter (the short group, and at 5-foot-9 I mean nothing disparaging by that). While those sample sizes are smaller (shorter) than ideal for this kind of study, the results are fascinating.

i


While the smaller point guards were for the most part effective immediately -- Brevin Knight's best season was his rookie year at age 22, while Damon Stoudamire's came in year three at age 24 -- the larger guards generally took longer to develop. Rod Strickland peaked at age 29, Gary Payton peaked at age 30, and Cassell did not reach his peak until age 34.

So as a group, the taller point guards didn't hit their peak until age 30, much later than the smaller point guards (age 26, a little younger than the typical age-27 peak across all positions). Every year after age 27, the taller point guards were relatively better, often substantially so.
Click to expand...
Sorry Lizakers Lizakers , you've got to wait until D'Lo's age 30 season. :lol: :tongue:
"Which of the young PGs who've failed to live up to draft-day expectations would you take a flier on: Elfrid Payton, D'Angelo Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay? In a 'loaded' PG draft class, given what we've seen thus far and considering contract statuses, where would you slot these three in a ranking of summer acquisition targets?"

-- Jonathan Dennis

Given that all three would fall into the tall group of point guards that tends to peak later, I'd be interested in any of them if their current teams were ready to move on.

If we're ranking, I'd start with Russell, who has two years remaining on his rookie contract and has played reasonably well given he's just 21. When I think about players who could benefit from developing consistent range on pull-up 3-pointers along the lines of the All-Star point guards I discussed last week, Russell is at the top of the list. He shot 38.7 percent on pull-up 3s after the break last season, per NBA.com/Stats, and while that's probably not sustainable, even making that shot at a 35 percent clip would make Russell much tougher to guard in the pick-and-roll.
Click to expand...
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...kly-mailbag-including-point-guard-career-arcs
 
Last edited:
PMatic said:
"Is there empirical evidence that smaller point guards decline faster than their larger peers? Lowry and CP3 seem to be going against this line of thinking, but almost every point guard historically seems to have been borderline unstartable after age 34, excepting Stockton, Nash, Kidd, Cassell and Mark Jackson (surprisingly solid age-36 season)."

-- Nick Kogan

The way I've studied this in the past is to look at ratio compared to peak winning percentage, the per-minute version of my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric. A few years ago, I put together a list of players who had played at least nine seasons and at least 10,000 minutes and ended their careers between 2005 and 2010.

That list had 21 players I labeled point guards. They divide rather evenly into 10 players 6-foot-2 or taller (the tall group) and 11 who were 6-foot-1 or shorter (the short group, and at 5-foot-9 I mean nothing disparaging by that). While those sample sizes are smaller (shorter) than ideal for this kind of study, the results are fascinating.

i


While the smaller point guards were for the most part effective immediately -- Brevin Knight's best season was his rookie year at age 22, while Damon Stoudamire's came in year three at age 24 -- the larger guards generally took longer to develop. Rod Strickland peaked at age 29, Gary Payton peaked at age 30, and Cassell did not reach his peak until age 34.

So as a group, the taller point guards didn't hit their peak until age 30, much later than the smaller point guards (age 26, a little younger than the typical age-27 peak across all positions). Every year after age 27, the taller point guards were relatively better, often substantially so.
Click to expand...
Sorry Lizakers Lizakers , you've got to wait until D'Lo's age 30 season. :lol: :tongue:
"Which of the young PGs who've failed to live up to draft-day expectations would you take a flier on: Elfrid Payton, D'Angelo Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay? In a 'loaded' PG draft class, given what we've seen thus far and considering contract statuses, where would you slot these three in a ranking of summer acquisition targets?"

-- Jonathan Dennis

Given that all three would fall into the tall group of point guards that tends to peak later, I'd be interested in any of them if their current teams were ready to move on.

If we're ranking, I'd start with Russell, who has two years remaining on his rookie contract and has played reasonably well given he's just 21. When I think about players who could benefit from developing consistent range on pull-up 3-pointers along the lines of the All-Star point guards I discussed last week, Russell is at the top of the list. He shot 38.7 percent on pull-up 3s after the break last season, per NBA.com/Stats, and while that's probably not sustainable, even making that shot at a 35 percent clip would make Russell much tougher to guard in the pick-and-roll.
Click to expand...
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...kly-mailbag-including-point-guard-career-arcs
Click to expand...


:pimp:
 
i mean is Josh Jackson?

Fox has the tenacity for it, but it would be nice to have either or "try" on our squad next year.
 
The chosen one has to prove himself tomorrow [emoji]128548[/emoji][emoji]128548[/emoji][emoji]128548[/emoji][emoji]128548[/emoji] lets go #BBBgang
 
Team Fox.

But would immediately start looking for a reshuffling of the bench spots at the 1 and 2.

Fox / Russell
??? / ????
Nwaba

Backup PG is a little less important because Russell can slide in. Would need somebody to give a solid 10 minutes total (start of 2nd and start of 4th).
 
Last edited:
Team Ball.

The offensive upside is too high. Feel like his defense is underrated and Fox's is somewhat overrated.
 
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