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Drummond's jumpshot has improved dramatically from his days at UConn to that Kings vid.
Official 2012 NBA Draft Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by al3xis,
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Who's the workout warrior of this draft?
The guys that don't miss a shot in any drills and does everything right but none of it translates to the actual game.
The guys that don't miss a shot in any drills and does everything right but none of it translates to the actual game.
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^ Yeah that'd be clutch
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Harison Barnes and Miles Plumlee, also Andrew Nicholson was also stroking it at the combine.
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I got a feeling that Draymond Green will be a good player. I'm not sure how good he will be, but he will definitely be a nice rotational player. He works too hard, has a great basketball IQ, shoot and pretty much do anything you need him to do.
He may not be good fit for a lottery team, but perfect for a playoff team.
I also like Orlando Johnson.
He may not be good fit for a lottery team, but perfect for a playoff team.
I also like Orlando Johnson.
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2012 NBA Draft Rater
Which players will end up being draft steals, busts? (PER Diem: June 18, 2012)
Updated: June 18, 2012, 3:41 PM ET
By John Hollinger | ESPN.com
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Anthony DavisBob Donnan/US PresswireAnthony Davis is at the top of our Draft Rater and it's not even close.
It's possible that mere moments after David Stern hands off the Larry O'Brien Trophy to Micky Arison or Clay Bennett that he will be in Newark, N.J., announcing that the New Orleans Hornets are on the clock. The Finals are slated to end June 26 (or really, the morning of June 27 if you factor in the ceremony, the interviews, the analysis and all the responsibilities of the players and the league), and the NBA draft is on June 28.
This is why we need to interrupt this riveting NBA Finals for a moment to talk about a bunch of 19-year-olds who have never played a professional game before.
That's right: It's Draft Rater time. I've developed a tool that analyzes college stats to predict NBA performance and have refined it over the past several years. It's something we can use to help identify draft steals and busts.
To review, last season was a pretty good one for the Rater. The 2011 pick with the top chance of success (Kyrie Irving) won Rookie of the Year, three other players it rated highly (Kawhi Leonard, Jon Leuer and Nikola Vucevic) provided great value for their draft position, and long-time favorite Daniel Green emerged as a starter on the West's best regular-season team.
Meanwhile, the Rater was down on Jan Vesely, Josh Selby and Jimmer Fredette. The biggest whiff was on MarShon Brooks, whom it rated as a late second-rounder but was a solid late first-round pick by the Nets. The others were players nobody else rated highly either; Isaiah Thomas, for instance, was No. 57 on my board. It was probably too optimistic about Tristan Thompson as well; he had the highest raw rating of any player but struggled at times as a rookie.
I made a few minor tweaks compared to a year ago -- most notably, I ditched the "Howland" variable, even though it was statistically significant, because it felt like an "overfit" (fitting the model to past results that may not necessarily be predictive) and I had enough significant variables without it. Otherwise, it's basically same as it ever was -- a giant regression model that gets incrementally smarter as we fill it with more data each year and one that I've segmented by position. It's still less predictive with one-and-done players, whom it sees less of statistically before they turn pro, and it's not perfect -- we're trying to project what 19-year-olds will be like at 25, a profoundly inexact science.
Nonetheless, let's zoom back out to the big picture and go through the results from this year's Draft Rater, because I think you'll see that a few points remain paramount.
1. Anthony Davis is obviously the best player
Good thing we came up with this neat model, because I don't know how we could have discerned this information otherwise. Yes, this is a one-star draft. Davis blew up my Draft Rater, as expected, but just as notable is the huge gap between him and the next place on the list.
Davis rates several points ahead of every other player on the board. In fact, the difference between Davis and the No. 2-rated player, Jared Sullinger, is greater than the gap between Sullinger and No. 16 Bradley Beal. And Sullinger's rating comes with asterisks that don't afflict Davis.
2. Remember, we're projecting PER
This gets extremely important when you look at the next few players that Draft Rater highlights and when you look back at some of the players Draft Rater has fawned over mistakenly in recent seasons. In each, you'll notice a huge propensity toward defensively lacking power forwards -- players like Michael Beasley, Charlie Villanueva and Tyrus Thomas, who had some of the best marks in recent seasons.
That's not a failure of Draft Rater as much as a failure of what I've asked it to do: project NBA PER from college stats. It did that; Beasley, Villanueva and Thomas all have excellent career PER marks. They just aren't very good in spite of those numbers due to their defensive shortcomings and questions about their fit in the team concept.
So let's take a closer look at two relatively short, stocky power forwards who are among the next names on the list: Sullinger and Draymond Green. Will these guys put up numbers? Very likely. Will they be able to guard their position? That is a much more open question and why they won't go as highly as Draft Rater places them. Green, in particular, is a massive defensive question mark.
This applies to a lesser extent to the next several players. Terrence Jones and Royce White, who also has anxiety issues that may affect his draft position, are much more offensive players who are an inch short for the power forward spot, and Furkan Aldemir of Turkey -- who rates as a mid-first-rounder although he probably won't be taken until the middle of the second round -- has defensive shortcomings too.
At least that makes it easy to pick out the second-best big man this year: Thomas Robinson of Kansas, who has no such defensive shortcomings and should be able to score effectively with his athleticism around the rim.
Also warranting looks later in the lottery are two project-level bigs with more upside, especially at the defensive end: Andre Drummond and John Henson. Henson has a slightly higher rating, but as a 7-foot center, Drummond is virtually certain to be the higher pick.
Finally, a sleeper among bigs is Henry Sims of Georgetown. He is not a great athlete and will struggle defensively, but he is a high skill guy who could be a second-round steal.
Bigs: The Best
Name College/Country Rating
Anthony Davis Kentucky 22.23
Jared Sullinger Ohio State 16.86
Thomas Robinson Kansas 15.20
Draymond Green Michigan State 14.84
Terrence Jones Kentucky 14.28
Royce White Iowa State 14.07
Furkan Aldemir Turkey 12.87
John Henson North Carolina 12.11
Andre Drummond Connecticut 12.05
Henry Sims Georgetown 10.38
3. High-rated wings usually deliver
As I noted with Leonard a year ago, wing players -- especially bigger ones -- with strong Draft Rater marks virtually never fail. Of the eight players to rate above 13 in the past decade, the worst among them was Josh Childress. Five of the players have played in an All-Star Game, and Rudy Gay may play in an All-Star Game soon. The seventh player is Leonard.
This year, we have two names to add to that list: Dion Waiters and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Kidd-Gilchrist is probably the safest pick on the board -- a big wing who plays defense, has strong stats and comes with no character questions. From a risk-aversion perspective alone he should be a top-five pick; I have him third on my board after Robinson. (See below for how I would rank the prospects, regardless of their Draft Rater numbers.)
I have Waiters fourth for similar reasons. His size, 6-foot-4, is more of a concern, but whatever team made him a promise did a wise thing. Waiters projects as the best small wing since Dwyane Wade, and he'd be a steal if somebody got him in the Nos. 8-10 range currently being discussed.
The other wing everybody is sleeping on is Quincy Miller of Baylor, who put up a strong mark despite coming off an ACL injury. He has more questions marks because of the knee and his bony build, but he is long and can score. The stories of him slipping have me baffled, because he rates as a top-10 pick.
Two other wings who will be drafted highly don't rate as strongly: Beal and Harrison Barnes. Most players in their range turn out to be solid, but this part of the pool doesn't produce many stars. I'd be more comfortable taking these two in the later part of the lottery.
Doronand Jeremy Lamb added to the perpetual confusion between the two by posting virtually the same rating, although this may be the only one that had Doron rated higher. Jeremy is likely to go 15 picks sooner given his higher ceiling, but Doron could be a great pickup in the late first or early second round as a Courtney Lee clone who hits 3s and defends.
The other wing worth a first-round look is Memphis' Will Barton, whom most have slotted as a second-rounder and who rates as a nice sleeper.
Perimeter Players: The Best
Name College/Country Rating
Dion Waiters Syracuse 14.12
Kendall Marshall North Carolina 13.84
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Kentucky 13.58
Marquis Teague Kentucky 13.18
Quincy Miller Baylor 12.94
Tony Wroten Washington 12.21
Bradley Beal Florida 11.65
Kostas Sloukas Greece 11.51
Harrison Barnes North Carolina 11.11
Will Barton Memphis 10.90
Doron Lamb Kentucky 10.65
Jeremy Lamb Connecticut 10.50
4. The point guard conundrum
Point guard is the hardest position to draft because so much depends on improvement once the player turns pro. Unless it's an overwhelming talent such as Chris Paul or Irving, the smarter play is usually to draft this position late and hope for the best.
This year, several point guards rate as first-round talents, and there is little to separate them. North Carolina's Kendall Marshall is the highest rated of the bunch and the safest pick, but he offers the least upside. Often compared to Mark Jackson because of his size, acumen and lack of athleticism, he is a solid mid-first-round pick. A poor man's version of Marshall might be Kostas Sloukas of Greece, who has solid translated Euroleague stats but will be a late second-rounder if he's drafted at all because of his questionable athleticism.
On the other hand, Marquis Teague of Kentucky and Tony Wroten of Washington have talent to spare and star upside. The question is whether each can harness it. Teague was plagued by turnovers, especially early in the year, but he is an athletic scoring point guard in the mold of his older brother, the Atlanta Hawks' Jeff Teague. Wroten, meanwhile, is enormous for a point guard (6-6) and can really see the floor, but he can't shoot and has lots of character questions.
Among Marshall, Wroten and Teague, it really is dealer's choice as to how much risk you're willing to take on for the reward. By the mid-first round I start liking Wroten's star potential quite a bit, but others may wish to play it more safely.
5. The rest of the bigs
In the tail end of the first round and throughout the second, we're sorting through several big men with fairly weak Draft Rater résumés. The Rater is a particularly harsh judge at the center position, where it frowns on the prospects of four centers with first-round aspirations -- Tyler Zeller, Meyers Leonard, Fab Melo and Festus Ezeli -- and flat-out mocks Miles Plumlee, who is off-the-charts bad with a 2.49 Draft Rater projection.
Plumlee aside, the other four are probably worthy of late first-round picks despite any misgivings, simply because size is such a rare commodity. Even if they can become just decent backup centers, taking them low in the first round makes sense. Two other 7-footers, Garrett Stutz of Wichita State and Robert Sacre of Gonzaga, shape up as solid second-rounders if we apply similar reasoning.
At the power forward spot, Perry Jones III is rated several notches lower than most, while two other likely first-rounders, Andrew Nicholson and Arnett Moultrie, rate as second-round picks. Also of note is Croatian forward Leon Radosevic as a decent second-round value play.
Bigs: The Rest
Name College/Country Rating
Perry Jones III Baylor 8.77
Leon Radosevic Croatia 8.77
JaMychal Green Alabama 8.73
Drew Gordon New Mexico 8.39
Tyler Zeller North Carolina 8.23
Andrew Nicholson St. Bonaventure 8.22
Quincy Acy Baylor 8.16
Fab Melo Syracuse 7.73
Garrett Stutz Wichita State 7.68
Mike Scott Virginia 7.50
Robert Sacre Gonzaga 7.37
Cameron Moore UAB 7.03
Meyers Leonard Illinois 7.02
Mitchell Watt Buffalo 6.77
Festus Ezeli Vanderbilt 6.54
Arnett Moultrie Mississippi State 6.42
6. Potential perimeter busts
One player that Draft Rater isn't crazy about is Damian Lillard of Weber State, who compiled strong numbers but did so against a weak schedule and is much older than most of the prospects at his position. He not only failed to outrank the top point guards above but also rates behind the less-heralded Tyshawn Taylor of Kansas. No. 6 clearly seems a stretch for Lillard, who looks more like a mid-to-late first-rounder in this analysis.
On the wings, a few potential first-rounders also fare poorly. Moe Harkless of St. John's had one of the worst ratings of any first-round prospect. While the error rate on one-and-done players has been higher, the difference between Harkless and the other lottery candidates is well outside the standard error of the Rater.
In addition to Harkless, first-round prospects John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor of Vanderbilt fared poorly. Another first-round prospect from overseas, Evan Fournier of France, didn't play in the Euroleague this year and thus has no projection. Subjectively, I'm not sold on him -- he's basically a slashing scorer who isn't athletic enough to score that way in the NBA -- but he at least has the benefit of being only 19.
One player gathering momentum is Kostas Papanikolaou of Greece, who shapes up as a solid second-round stash pick. Two other wing prospects -- Austin Rivers and Terrence Ross -- shape up about where we'd expect as mid-to-late first rounders, but after those two, the pool thins out quickly.
A final sleeper to watch is Maryland point guard Terrell Stoglin, another guy who would make a great second-rounder.
Perimeter Players: The Rest
Name College/Country Rating
Tyshawn Taylor Kansas 10.19
Austin Rivers Duke 9.85
Terrell Stoglin Maryland 9.82
Damian Lillard Weber State 9.75
Kostas Papanikolaou Greece 9.26
Terrence Ross Washington 9.12
Elias Harris Gonzaga 8.64
William Buford Ohio State 8.58
J'Covan Brown Texas 8.49
Jordan Taylor Wisconsin 8.19
Reggie Hamilton Oakland 8.18
Maalik Wayns Villanova 8.02
Hollis Thompson Georgetown 8.01
Tony Mitchell Alabama 7.91
Jae Crowder Marquette 7.90
Jared Cunningham Oregon State 7.76
John Jenkins Vanderbilt 7.76
Khris Middleton Texas A&M 7.68
Scott Machado Iona 7.57
Tornike Shengelia Republic of Georgia 7.33
Moe Harkless St. John's 7.15
Tu Holloway Xavier 7.14
Orlando Johnson UC Santa Barbara 7.11
Darius Miller Kentucky 6.65
Jeffery Taylor Vanderbilt 6.59
7. Making my board
Knowing everything we know, here is how my board looks heading into draft day. This is taking into account everything from the Draft Rater as well as what we know about the players' red flags, defensive pluses and minuses and one or two subjective calls:
1. Anthony Davis
2. Thomas Robinson
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
4. Dion Waiters
5. Andre Drummond
6. Quincy Miller
7. Jared Sullinger
8. Terrence Jones
9. John Henson
10. Royce White
11. Bradley Beal
12. Harrison Barnes
13. Tony Wroten
14. Kendall Marshall
15. Marquis Teague
16. Draymond Green
17. Jeremy Lamb
18. Damian Lillard
19. Austin Rivers
20. Doron Lamb
21. Furkan Aldemir
22. Will Barton
23. Tyler Zeller
24. Evan Fournier
25. Tyshawn Taylor
26. Meyers Leonard
27. Terrence Ross
28. Perry Jones
29. Festus Ezeli
30. Fab Melo
31. Kostas Sloukas
32. Henry Sims
33. Terrell Stoglin
34. Kostas Papanikolaou
35. Moe Harkless
36. Leon Radosevic
37. JaMychal Green
38. Andrew Nicholson
39. Drew Gordon
40. Garrett Stutz
41. Robert Sacre
42. Arnett Moultrie
43. Elias Harris
44. William Buford
45. Jae Crowder
46. Jared Cunningham
47. Jordan Taylor
48. John Jenkins
49. Orlando Johnson
50. Jeffrey Taylor
51. Quincy Acy
52. Maalik Wayns
53. Tornike Shengelia
54. Scott Machado
55. Mike Scott
56. J'Covan Brown
57. Reggie Hamilton
58. Khris Middleton
59. Tony Mitchell
60. Miles Plumlee
Which players will end up being draft steals, busts? (PER Diem: June 18, 2012)
Updated: June 18, 2012, 3:41 PM ET
By John Hollinger | ESPN.com
1
10
Anthony DavisBob Donnan/US PresswireAnthony Davis is at the top of our Draft Rater and it's not even close.
It's possible that mere moments after David Stern hands off the Larry O'Brien Trophy to Micky Arison or Clay Bennett that he will be in Newark, N.J., announcing that the New Orleans Hornets are on the clock. The Finals are slated to end June 26 (or really, the morning of June 27 if you factor in the ceremony, the interviews, the analysis and all the responsibilities of the players and the league), and the NBA draft is on June 28.
This is why we need to interrupt this riveting NBA Finals for a moment to talk about a bunch of 19-year-olds who have never played a professional game before.
That's right: It's Draft Rater time. I've developed a tool that analyzes college stats to predict NBA performance and have refined it over the past several years. It's something we can use to help identify draft steals and busts.
To review, last season was a pretty good one for the Rater. The 2011 pick with the top chance of success (Kyrie Irving) won Rookie of the Year, three other players it rated highly (Kawhi Leonard, Jon Leuer and Nikola Vucevic) provided great value for their draft position, and long-time favorite Daniel Green emerged as a starter on the West's best regular-season team.
Meanwhile, the Rater was down on Jan Vesely, Josh Selby and Jimmer Fredette. The biggest whiff was on MarShon Brooks, whom it rated as a late second-rounder but was a solid late first-round pick by the Nets. The others were players nobody else rated highly either; Isaiah Thomas, for instance, was No. 57 on my board. It was probably too optimistic about Tristan Thompson as well; he had the highest raw rating of any player but struggled at times as a rookie.
I made a few minor tweaks compared to a year ago -- most notably, I ditched the "Howland" variable, even though it was statistically significant, because it felt like an "overfit" (fitting the model to past results that may not necessarily be predictive) and I had enough significant variables without it. Otherwise, it's basically same as it ever was -- a giant regression model that gets incrementally smarter as we fill it with more data each year and one that I've segmented by position. It's still less predictive with one-and-done players, whom it sees less of statistically before they turn pro, and it's not perfect -- we're trying to project what 19-year-olds will be like at 25, a profoundly inexact science.
Nonetheless, let's zoom back out to the big picture and go through the results from this year's Draft Rater, because I think you'll see that a few points remain paramount.
1. Anthony Davis is obviously the best player
Good thing we came up with this neat model, because I don't know how we could have discerned this information otherwise. Yes, this is a one-star draft. Davis blew up my Draft Rater, as expected, but just as notable is the huge gap between him and the next place on the list.
Davis rates several points ahead of every other player on the board. In fact, the difference between Davis and the No. 2-rated player, Jared Sullinger, is greater than the gap between Sullinger and No. 16 Bradley Beal. And Sullinger's rating comes with asterisks that don't afflict Davis.
2. Remember, we're projecting PER
This gets extremely important when you look at the next few players that Draft Rater highlights and when you look back at some of the players Draft Rater has fawned over mistakenly in recent seasons. In each, you'll notice a huge propensity toward defensively lacking power forwards -- players like Michael Beasley, Charlie Villanueva and Tyrus Thomas, who had some of the best marks in recent seasons.
That's not a failure of Draft Rater as much as a failure of what I've asked it to do: project NBA PER from college stats. It did that; Beasley, Villanueva and Thomas all have excellent career PER marks. They just aren't very good in spite of those numbers due to their defensive shortcomings and questions about their fit in the team concept.
So let's take a closer look at two relatively short, stocky power forwards who are among the next names on the list: Sullinger and Draymond Green. Will these guys put up numbers? Very likely. Will they be able to guard their position? That is a much more open question and why they won't go as highly as Draft Rater places them. Green, in particular, is a massive defensive question mark.
This applies to a lesser extent to the next several players. Terrence Jones and Royce White, who also has anxiety issues that may affect his draft position, are much more offensive players who are an inch short for the power forward spot, and Furkan Aldemir of Turkey -- who rates as a mid-first-rounder although he probably won't be taken until the middle of the second round -- has defensive shortcomings too.
At least that makes it easy to pick out the second-best big man this year: Thomas Robinson of Kansas, who has no such defensive shortcomings and should be able to score effectively with his athleticism around the rim.
Also warranting looks later in the lottery are two project-level bigs with more upside, especially at the defensive end: Andre Drummond and John Henson. Henson has a slightly higher rating, but as a 7-foot center, Drummond is virtually certain to be the higher pick.
Finally, a sleeper among bigs is Henry Sims of Georgetown. He is not a great athlete and will struggle defensively, but he is a high skill guy who could be a second-round steal.
Bigs: The Best
Name College/Country Rating
Anthony Davis Kentucky 22.23
Jared Sullinger Ohio State 16.86
Thomas Robinson Kansas 15.20
Draymond Green Michigan State 14.84
Terrence Jones Kentucky 14.28
Royce White Iowa State 14.07
Furkan Aldemir Turkey 12.87
John Henson North Carolina 12.11
Andre Drummond Connecticut 12.05
Henry Sims Georgetown 10.38
3. High-rated wings usually deliver
As I noted with Leonard a year ago, wing players -- especially bigger ones -- with strong Draft Rater marks virtually never fail. Of the eight players to rate above 13 in the past decade, the worst among them was Josh Childress. Five of the players have played in an All-Star Game, and Rudy Gay may play in an All-Star Game soon. The seventh player is Leonard.
This year, we have two names to add to that list: Dion Waiters and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Kidd-Gilchrist is probably the safest pick on the board -- a big wing who plays defense, has strong stats and comes with no character questions. From a risk-aversion perspective alone he should be a top-five pick; I have him third on my board after Robinson. (See below for how I would rank the prospects, regardless of their Draft Rater numbers.)
I have Waiters fourth for similar reasons. His size, 6-foot-4, is more of a concern, but whatever team made him a promise did a wise thing. Waiters projects as the best small wing since Dwyane Wade, and he'd be a steal if somebody got him in the Nos. 8-10 range currently being discussed.
The other wing everybody is sleeping on is Quincy Miller of Baylor, who put up a strong mark despite coming off an ACL injury. He has more questions marks because of the knee and his bony build, but he is long and can score. The stories of him slipping have me baffled, because he rates as a top-10 pick.
Two other wings who will be drafted highly don't rate as strongly: Beal and Harrison Barnes. Most players in their range turn out to be solid, but this part of the pool doesn't produce many stars. I'd be more comfortable taking these two in the later part of the lottery.
Doronand Jeremy Lamb added to the perpetual confusion between the two by posting virtually the same rating, although this may be the only one that had Doron rated higher. Jeremy is likely to go 15 picks sooner given his higher ceiling, but Doron could be a great pickup in the late first or early second round as a Courtney Lee clone who hits 3s and defends.
The other wing worth a first-round look is Memphis' Will Barton, whom most have slotted as a second-rounder and who rates as a nice sleeper.
Perimeter Players: The Best
Name College/Country Rating
Dion Waiters Syracuse 14.12
Kendall Marshall North Carolina 13.84
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Kentucky 13.58
Marquis Teague Kentucky 13.18
Quincy Miller Baylor 12.94
Tony Wroten Washington 12.21
Bradley Beal Florida 11.65
Kostas Sloukas Greece 11.51
Harrison Barnes North Carolina 11.11
Will Barton Memphis 10.90
Doron Lamb Kentucky 10.65
Jeremy Lamb Connecticut 10.50
4. The point guard conundrum
Point guard is the hardest position to draft because so much depends on improvement once the player turns pro. Unless it's an overwhelming talent such as Chris Paul or Irving, the smarter play is usually to draft this position late and hope for the best.
This year, several point guards rate as first-round talents, and there is little to separate them. North Carolina's Kendall Marshall is the highest rated of the bunch and the safest pick, but he offers the least upside. Often compared to Mark Jackson because of his size, acumen and lack of athleticism, he is a solid mid-first-round pick. A poor man's version of Marshall might be Kostas Sloukas of Greece, who has solid translated Euroleague stats but will be a late second-rounder if he's drafted at all because of his questionable athleticism.
On the other hand, Marquis Teague of Kentucky and Tony Wroten of Washington have talent to spare and star upside. The question is whether each can harness it. Teague was plagued by turnovers, especially early in the year, but he is an athletic scoring point guard in the mold of his older brother, the Atlanta Hawks' Jeff Teague. Wroten, meanwhile, is enormous for a point guard (6-6) and can really see the floor, but he can't shoot and has lots of character questions.
Among Marshall, Wroten and Teague, it really is dealer's choice as to how much risk you're willing to take on for the reward. By the mid-first round I start liking Wroten's star potential quite a bit, but others may wish to play it more safely.
5. The rest of the bigs
In the tail end of the first round and throughout the second, we're sorting through several big men with fairly weak Draft Rater résumés. The Rater is a particularly harsh judge at the center position, where it frowns on the prospects of four centers with first-round aspirations -- Tyler Zeller, Meyers Leonard, Fab Melo and Festus Ezeli -- and flat-out mocks Miles Plumlee, who is off-the-charts bad with a 2.49 Draft Rater projection.
Plumlee aside, the other four are probably worthy of late first-round picks despite any misgivings, simply because size is such a rare commodity. Even if they can become just decent backup centers, taking them low in the first round makes sense. Two other 7-footers, Garrett Stutz of Wichita State and Robert Sacre of Gonzaga, shape up as solid second-rounders if we apply similar reasoning.
At the power forward spot, Perry Jones III is rated several notches lower than most, while two other likely first-rounders, Andrew Nicholson and Arnett Moultrie, rate as second-round picks. Also of note is Croatian forward Leon Radosevic as a decent second-round value play.
Bigs: The Rest
Name College/Country Rating
Perry Jones III Baylor 8.77
Leon Radosevic Croatia 8.77
JaMychal Green Alabama 8.73
Drew Gordon New Mexico 8.39
Tyler Zeller North Carolina 8.23
Andrew Nicholson St. Bonaventure 8.22
Quincy Acy Baylor 8.16
Fab Melo Syracuse 7.73
Garrett Stutz Wichita State 7.68
Mike Scott Virginia 7.50
Robert Sacre Gonzaga 7.37
Cameron Moore UAB 7.03
Meyers Leonard Illinois 7.02
Mitchell Watt Buffalo 6.77
Festus Ezeli Vanderbilt 6.54
Arnett Moultrie Mississippi State 6.42
6. Potential perimeter busts
One player that Draft Rater isn't crazy about is Damian Lillard of Weber State, who compiled strong numbers but did so against a weak schedule and is much older than most of the prospects at his position. He not only failed to outrank the top point guards above but also rates behind the less-heralded Tyshawn Taylor of Kansas. No. 6 clearly seems a stretch for Lillard, who looks more like a mid-to-late first-rounder in this analysis.
On the wings, a few potential first-rounders also fare poorly. Moe Harkless of St. John's had one of the worst ratings of any first-round prospect. While the error rate on one-and-done players has been higher, the difference between Harkless and the other lottery candidates is well outside the standard error of the Rater.
In addition to Harkless, first-round prospects John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor of Vanderbilt fared poorly. Another first-round prospect from overseas, Evan Fournier of France, didn't play in the Euroleague this year and thus has no projection. Subjectively, I'm not sold on him -- he's basically a slashing scorer who isn't athletic enough to score that way in the NBA -- but he at least has the benefit of being only 19.
One player gathering momentum is Kostas Papanikolaou of Greece, who shapes up as a solid second-round stash pick. Two other wing prospects -- Austin Rivers and Terrence Ross -- shape up about where we'd expect as mid-to-late first rounders, but after those two, the pool thins out quickly.
A final sleeper to watch is Maryland point guard Terrell Stoglin, another guy who would make a great second-rounder.
Perimeter Players: The Rest
Name College/Country Rating
Tyshawn Taylor Kansas 10.19
Austin Rivers Duke 9.85
Terrell Stoglin Maryland 9.82
Damian Lillard Weber State 9.75
Kostas Papanikolaou Greece 9.26
Terrence Ross Washington 9.12
Elias Harris Gonzaga 8.64
William Buford Ohio State 8.58
J'Covan Brown Texas 8.49
Jordan Taylor Wisconsin 8.19
Reggie Hamilton Oakland 8.18
Maalik Wayns Villanova 8.02
Hollis Thompson Georgetown 8.01
Tony Mitchell Alabama 7.91
Jae Crowder Marquette 7.90
Jared Cunningham Oregon State 7.76
John Jenkins Vanderbilt 7.76
Khris Middleton Texas A&M 7.68
Scott Machado Iona 7.57
Tornike Shengelia Republic of Georgia 7.33
Moe Harkless St. John's 7.15
Tu Holloway Xavier 7.14
Orlando Johnson UC Santa Barbara 7.11
Darius Miller Kentucky 6.65
Jeffery Taylor Vanderbilt 6.59
7. Making my board
Knowing everything we know, here is how my board looks heading into draft day. This is taking into account everything from the Draft Rater as well as what we know about the players' red flags, defensive pluses and minuses and one or two subjective calls:
1. Anthony Davis
2. Thomas Robinson
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
4. Dion Waiters
5. Andre Drummond
6. Quincy Miller
7. Jared Sullinger
8. Terrence Jones
9. John Henson
10. Royce White
11. Bradley Beal
12. Harrison Barnes
13. Tony Wroten
14. Kendall Marshall
15. Marquis Teague
16. Draymond Green
17. Jeremy Lamb
18. Damian Lillard
19. Austin Rivers
20. Doron Lamb
21. Furkan Aldemir
22. Will Barton
23. Tyler Zeller
24. Evan Fournier
25. Tyshawn Taylor
26. Meyers Leonard
27. Terrence Ross
28. Perry Jones
29. Festus Ezeli
30. Fab Melo
31. Kostas Sloukas
32. Henry Sims
33. Terrell Stoglin
34. Kostas Papanikolaou
35. Moe Harkless
36. Leon Radosevic
37. JaMychal Green
38. Andrew Nicholson
39. Drew Gordon
40. Garrett Stutz
41. Robert Sacre
42. Arnett Moultrie
43. Elias Harris
44. William Buford
45. Jae Crowder
46. Jared Cunningham
47. Jordan Taylor
48. John Jenkins
49. Orlando Johnson
50. Jeffrey Taylor
51. Quincy Acy
52. Maalik Wayns
53. Tornike Shengelia
54. Scott Machado
55. Mike Scott
56. J'Covan Brown
57. Reggie Hamilton
58. Khris Middleton
59. Tony Mitchell
60. Miles Plumlee
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After Anthony Davis, who's next?
We're getting closer. With 10 days to go until the NBA draft, there is still a lot of chatter. Teams are still doing workouts. Trade calls are heating up. Draft stocks are still rising and falling. Here's the latest from around the league.
• One of the biggest challenges in projecting the draft is trying to get a handle on who is exactly drafting where.
Sources continue to insist that the Charlotte Bobcats (2), Sacramento Kings (5), Portland Trail Blazers (6, 11) and Toronto Raptors (are all still open to moving the pick. Some of those trades could be with each other, but from what I can gather, none of the four teams I just mentioned are sold with the players that are available to them. In the case of the Bobcats, the team is looking to turn a high pick into multiple assets. The Raptors and Kings, as we've mentioned previously, are looking for veterans to anchor an already young roster. The Blazers? From what I can gather, they're open to anything and everything.
But the draft exodus may go even farther into the first round. Sources say that the New Orleans Hornets (10), Houston Rockets (14, 16) and Minnesota Timberwolves (1are also open to moving their pick. In all three cases, those teams are looking for established young veterans to fill out their rosters.
• The teams at the top should be moving even closer to finalizing their draft boards this week. However, right now, things are very much up in the air for picks 2-4.
The consensus next tier players are Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal, Thomas Robinson,Harrison Barnes and Andre Drummond. Virtually every team in the league has those players ranked 2-6 on their boards in various orders.
The Bobcats have Kidd-Gilchrist and Beal in town for a workout on Monday, while Robinson hits Charlotte on Friday. Barnes, the other player in the mix for them, is also expected to work out there soon. From the sound of things, Robinson is the player they covet. Surprisingly, Barnes may be in second place in Charlotte.
The Wizards have already done the bulk of their homework. Robinson worked out in D.C. last Wednesday; Beal worked out for the Wizards on Friday; and Kidd-Gilchrist followed him on Saturday. Drummond is in town on Monday followed by Barnes on Tuesday. The signals coming out of Washington are still pretty fuzzy right now, and it sounds like every single player is still in the mix.
The Cavs had the best workout of the year so far on Saturday. Beal and Barnes went head to head against each other. Despite the size disadvantage, a source close to the Cavs said that Beal had a slightly better workout.
However, they were quick to caution that the workouts were just a small piece of the puzzle in the overall draft evaluation. The Cavs are also expected to get Drummond and Kidd-Gilchrist into town this week. Both players are also seriously in the mix, according to sources.
That means that as of right now there are as many as 10 potential scenarios for picks 2-4.
It also means that the Kings could end up finding Robinson, Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal, Barnes or Drummond sitting there at No. 5. I'm not so sure I'd be willing to deal if I was Sacramento until I knew who was going to be available.
• Of the five players just mentioned, Drummond is, by far, the biggest wild card. While it seems unlikely that the Bobcats draft him at No. 2 (they already took a flier on Bismack Biyombo last year) he is in the mix with the Wizards at No. 3, the Cavs at No. 4, the Kings at No. 5 and the Blazers at No. 6.
However, in speaking with sources in each of those teams, they all sound skittish about drafting Drummond so high.
"The reward is there, but so is the risk," one GM told ESPN. "In this case, he's the riskiest of the five by far and you have to be pretty confident as a GM that your owner is going to allow you to take that risk. Whoever drafts him is going to have to be patient and patience is a very rare commodity in our league."
I think there are a number of scenarios in which Drummond could slide out of the top six, but from what I can gather, he won't get past the Detroit Pistons at No. 9.
• Still trying to figure out which team promised Syracuse guard Dion Waiters? So are we. Two weeks ago, at the NBA combine, Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo was adamant, on air, that the Raptors weren't the team.
Over the weekend, Blazers GM Neil Olshey told the Oregonian that it wasn't him, either.
"I got the job on a Tuesday, and by the time I landed in Chicago the next day [for the predraft camp], I had convinced an owner [to pick a prospect], a player to shut down his workouts ... I mean, I hadn't even talked to my scouts yet," he said.
OK. But then Olshey goes on to talk about how real promises are and how he's done them in the past. Oh, and that the team that does promise the player routinely lies about it.
Most GMs in the league still believe that the Phoenix Suns are the most likely landing spot for Waiters. But I doubt he gets there.
The Raptors and Blazers are both high on him, and so are the Hornets. Even if the Suns did give him the promise, it doesn't stop a team ahead of them from drafting him.
• The deadline for players to withdraw from the NBA draft is Monday at 5 p.m. ET.
In years past, we would see a flood of college underclassmen decide to return to school. That's not happening this year. New NCAA rules forced underclassmen to withdraw by May 10 to retain their college eligibility.
So the only players we're really looking at are the international players who are younger than 22 years old.
This year 17 international players declared early for the 2012 NBA draft. As of Sunday night, only one international player, Turkey's Furkan Aldemir, was confirmed to be staying in the draft. Aldemir is a likely second-round selection. Sources say that France's Evan Fournier is also very likely to stay in the draft, as well. Fournier is projected to be a mid to late first-round pick.
A few others including Tomas Satoransky, Josep Franch and Tornike Shengelia might also stay. However, at this point, they don't look like they have a serious shot at the first round.
The rest of the early entrants -- Jonas Bergstedt, Maximilian Kleber, Lahaou Konate,Mindaugas Kupsas, Joffrey Lauvergne, Abdoulaye Loum, Nika Metreveli, Nemanja Nedovic,Alen Omic, Jakub Parzenski, Sertac Sanli and Mathieu Wojciechowski are expected to withdraw.
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OKC own a late 2nd round pick?
IF so they should give Sims a look.
IF so they should give Sims a look.
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Whoever walks away from this draft with Dion Waiters is an automatic winner in my book.
Probably the Pistons or Phoenix..
Probably the Pistons or Phoenix..
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Sullinger's draft stock about to drop like a rock.
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Thats what his Boris Diaw body got him
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Damn, that sucks. Bad backs are nothing to play with.
D
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I can guarantee his bad back has something to do with his weight too
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True, I sort of feel bad for the guy. However, it's yet to be determined how bad his back is.
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agreed, he only missed two games last year and I believe none the year prior. You're right, who knows.
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His back problem probably stems from knee issues. Just sayin
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Who else has fallen down the draft due to injuries (or rumors of injuries) over the years?
Off the top of my head, DeJuan Blair (knees), Darrell Arthur (kidney) and Caron Butler (knee). I'm sure there are others.
Off the top of my head, DeJuan Blair (knees), Darrell Arthur (kidney) and Caron Butler (knee). I'm sure there are others.
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Also reports that MKG slipped and hurt his back at Charlotte's workout...
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..what the hell.
..what the hell.
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Wait the Bulls are interested in Harrison Barnes?!?!?!
I'd rather take the luxury tax hit
I'd rather take the luxury tax hit
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anybody think my boy Jorge Gutierrez out of CAL might have a shot to get drafted?
6"3, 195 great character guy and superb defender. PAC 10 player of the year
6"3, 195 great character guy and superb defender. PAC 10 player of the year
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Anybody else think that Zeller might be the best big man besides A.Davis? I mean I was never completely impressed with Sullinger anyways and now he has red flags, Fab Melo played in a zone defense, and Drummond still seems very undeveloped in his offensive post game.
I don't really think there are any superstar centers in the draft besides Davis. Sucks because I know the Celtics are looking for a big guy this year. Wouldn't be shocked if we try to get Plumlee, wouldn't be too mad either.
I also don't see Terrence Jones playing the 4 in the NBA, he is strong inside but his game is more like a 3. Perry Jones III is a great sleeper pick IMO. MKG is going to be a star if he gets a consistant jumper.
I don't really think there are any superstar centers in the draft besides Davis. Sucks because I know the Celtics are looking for a big guy this year. Wouldn't be shocked if we try to get Plumlee, wouldn't be too mad either.
I also don't see Terrence Jones playing the 4 in the NBA, he is strong inside but his game is more like a 3. Perry Jones III is a great sleeper pick IMO. MKG is going to be a star if he gets a consistant jumper.
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big Jorge fan here, I doubt he'll get drafted since he is an average athlete and has a limited offensive skillset. I hope a team will give him a chance, he's got that Bruce Bowen crackhead gangster defense and hustles 100% of the time. He held Lillard to 4-17 one game.