- 12,344
- 4,712
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2004
I need DJ Moore on every team this season.
***OFFICIAL 2019-20 FANTASY FOOTBALL THREAD (VOL. CALMA)***
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by champcruthik,
- Start date
- 9,788
- 4,120
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2011
Just did a mock on the Sleeper app.
I'm pick 10 in a 12 team .5 PPR squad ended up like:
QB: Lamar
RB: Chubb / Montgomery / Guice / Ballage
WR:Juju/Godwin/ DJ Moore/ A-Rob/James Washington/ Dede / Hardman
TE: Rudolph
Defense: Ravens
K: Vinatieri
I'm pick 10 in a 12 team .5 PPR squad ended up like:
QB: Lamar
RB: Chubb / Montgomery / Guice / Ballage
WR:Juju/Godwin/ DJ Moore/ A-Rob/James Washington/ Dede / Hardman
TE: Rudolph
Defense: Ravens
K: Vinatieri
- 74,412
- 23,891
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
Reasoning?
- 33,349
- 15,147
- Joined
- Apr 28, 2009
I’m good on DJ Moore. He’s going waaaay too early and Samuel has looked like the better player throughout camp as far as all the reports I’ve seen. You can get him 2-3 rounds later. Moore is going over guys like Golladay and Boyd in some drafts and that just seems insane to me.
I also live in NC and already know the dudes in my draft next weekend are gonna be reaching for him like crazy
I also live in NC and already know the dudes in my draft next weekend are gonna be reaching for him like crazy
Last edited:
- 12,344
- 4,712
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2004
There are a boatload of advanced metrics and historical comps that signal a big time breakout is in the cards for Moore. I'm primarily a zero RB drafter so grabbing him as my WR3/4 is almost a no brainer imo. There's definitely risk involved if you have him as your WR2 but he won't ever be a WR2 on my squads (on draft day at least).
I do like Curtis Samuel as well.
I do like Curtis Samuel as well.
- 74,412
- 23,891
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
link to these advanced metrics? i love using that stuff for baseball so wouldn't mind implementing it into my fantasy football strategy.
- 12,344
- 4,712
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2004
You'd be a big fan of Rotoviz.com.
Everything they do is data driven. They keep the subjectivity to a minimum. It's a pay site but it's well worth it imo. I've been using them since like 2014 and re-up every year as soon as my subscription runs out. Another reason why I really like their content is that they place a huge emphasis on draft strategy, team building, and roster construction, rather than simple "player x vs player y" type deals.
Here's a good piece on DJ Moore:
https://www.rotoviz.com/2019/08/a-w...ictive-why-im-sure-dj-moore-is-the-real-deal/
I think you get one free article before you're hit with the paywall, but just in case I'll copy/paste the article here in spoilers.
The 3 and 10 Rule – A Pair of Rookie Wide Receiver Metrics with an Astonishing Hit Rate
Twitter
Facebook
Author’s Note, August 2, 2019: so this piece can be used for research, I’ve changed the title and updated the piece with findings for 22-year old rookies since the year 2000. This piece originally posted on June 17, 2019 and featured only the 21-year-old findings.
In my opinion, the RotoViz Screener is the most powerful, most useful, and most creative research tool in the fantasy football industry.
It can be used to query just about anything your mind can conjure up. When you have a database with every NFL play dating back to 2000, the possibilities are endless.
I planned to use the Screener for some deep fantasy football research on D.J. Moore — but I didn’t have to invest much time before happening upon an important discovery. Under Global Filters I set the Screener back as far as it goes (2000), set the age to 21 years for minimum and maximum, and set Play by Play Query 1 to display reREC (receptions) and GMS (games). The output gave me a sample of 52 wide receivers who have played in a NFL game since 2000, along with their receptions in that season. The Screener displays query returns sorted from highest to lowest by the first variable you enter in display variables, which was reREC in this case. The top of the list leapt out and punched me in the face.
I downloaded the data and calculated receptions per game. I couldn’t believe my eyes. I cross-referenced the data using pro-football-reference.com for PPR scoring since 2000 as a double-check.
The 3 and 10 Rule – A Pair of Rookie Wide Receiver Metrics with an Astonishing Hit Rate
Age 21 Rookie Wide Receivers
A few minutes later, I had constructed the table below.
Sources: RotoViz Screener and Pro Football Reference. PPR positional finishes are based on total season performance.
I mentioned above that I set the Screener to query as far back as 2000. So why does this chart begin with Larry Fitzgerald in 2004? There were no wide receivers who satisfied the criteria between 2000-2003.
Now, let’s break this down.
Every wide receiver in the table above posted at least 3.0 receptions per game and played at least 10 games in his age 21 season. Of the 13 wide receivers in this cohort who have played at least two seasons:
From a dynasty perspective, this chart represents some of the most valuable players we’ve seen over the past decade. As if D.J. Moore’s value hasn’t risen enough since last year, I think we can get a sense of where it could be headed when considering the other players in the cohort. If you’ve been on the fence about where to rank or value Moore, don’t be any more. He belongs firmly in the second round of dynasty startups and our team has him ranked that way.
From a redraft perspective, what could be in store for fantasy owners in 2019? The average positional finish for this wide receiver cohort in their age-22 seasons was 13.8. The table below shows a big reason why — the group averaged 81.1 receptions, representing an average increase of 22.8 receptions per player.
PLAYER SEASON REC AGE 21 REC AGE 22 CHANGE
Amari Cooper 2015 72 82 10
Keenan Allen 2013 71 77 6
Mike Evans 2014 68 74 6
Sammy Watkins 2014 65 60 -5
Percy Harvin 2009 60 71 11
Juju Smith-Schuster 2017 58 111 53
Larry Fitzgerald 2004 58 103 45
Jeremy Maclin 2009 56 70 14
Brandin Cooks 2014 53 84 31
DeAndre Hopkins 2013 52 76 24
Josh Gordon 2012 50 87 37
Allen Robinson 2014 48 80 32
Hakeem Nicks 2009 47 79 32
If we give Moore an extra 23 receptions in 2019, credit him with last year’s YPR and his touchdown rate, his projected line (rounding to nearest whole number) would be: 78/1,117/3. At 207.7 PPR points, that line would’ve been good for PPR WR20 in 2018. If Moore manages that this season he’ll keep the cohort at a perfect 14/14 in producing top-20 seasons. Incredible. Needless to say, these criteria will have a permanent place in my fantasy football scouting toolbox moving forward.
I want to leave you with one more golden nugget. If I set the criteria to age 21 and more than 3.0 receptions per game but only require six games (instead of 10), one more player joins the group. He was a rookie in 2018, his dynasty ADP is currently 109.8 and his best ball ADP is currently 102.1.
It’s Keke Coutee.
Age 22 Rookie Wide Receivers
Of course, we need to run 22-year-old rookies through the same filters to see if these metrics are actionable for a larger sample, or if they should be reserved for evaluating only 21-year-olds. Which age-22 2018 rookie wide receivers hit the 3-and-10 metrics? How has the age-22 cohort gone on to perform since the year 2000?
Between 2000 and 2017, there were 33 instances of 22-year-old rookies hitting the 3-and-10 metrics.
Takeaways
Twenty-one-year-old rookie wide receivers who averaged three receptions per game and played at least 10 games have posted at least one top-20 WR PPR finish in their careers 100% of the time since the year 2000. This cohort has also been straight fire when it comes to second-year breakouts, averaging a high-end WR2 finish as 22 year olds.
Twenty-two-year-old rookie wide receivers who hit the 3-and-10 rule metrics have posted at least one top-36 WR PPR finish in their careers 78.7 percent of the time since the year 2000.
I know most of us like to think in terms WR1/2/3, etc., so here’s a handy reference table to fall back on that uses the familiar 12/24/36 cutoffs.
Sources: RotoViz Screener and Pro Football Reference.
Image Credit: Steven King/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: D.J. Moore.
Author’s Note, August 2, 2019: so this piece can be used for research, I’ve changed the title and updated the piece with findings for 22-year old rookies since the year 2000. This piece originally posted on June 17, 2019 and featured only the 21-year-old findings.
In my opinion, the RotoViz Screener is the most powerful, most useful, and most creative research tool in the fantasy football industry.
It can be used to query just about anything your mind can conjure up. When you have a database with every NFL play dating back to 2000, the possibilities are endless.
I planned to use the Screener for some deep fantasy football research on D.J. Moore — but I didn’t have to invest much time before happening upon an important discovery. Under Global Filters I set the Screener back as far as it goes (2000), set the age to 21 years for minimum and maximum, and set Play by Play Query 1 to display reREC (receptions) and GMS (games). The output gave me a sample of 52 wide receivers who have played in a NFL game since 2000, along with their receptions in that season. The Screener displays query returns sorted from highest to lowest by the first variable you enter in display variables, which was reREC in this case. The top of the list leapt out and punched me in the face.
I downloaded the data and calculated receptions per game. I couldn’t believe my eyes. I cross-referenced the data using pro-football-reference.com for PPR scoring since 2000 as a double-check.
The 3 and 10 Rule – A Pair of Rookie Wide Receiver Metrics with an Astonishing Hit Rate
Age 21 Rookie Wide Receivers
A few minutes later, I had constructed the table below.
Sources: RotoViz Screener and Pro Football Reference. PPR positional finishes are based on total season performance.
I mentioned above that I set the Screener to query as far back as 2000. So why does this chart begin with Larry Fitzgerald in 2004? There were no wide receivers who satisfied the criteria between 2000-2003.
Now, let’s break this down.
Every wide receiver in the table above posted at least 3.0 receptions per game and played at least 10 games in his age 21 season. Of the 13 wide receivers in this cohort who have played at least two seasons:
- 13/13 have a top-20 PPR season (100%)
- 11/13 have recorded a top-12 PPR season (84.6%)
- 5/13 have posted a top-5 PPR season (38.5%)
- 5/13 were PPR WR1s in their age-22 season (38.5%)
- The average positional finish for these wide receivers in their age-22 season was 13.8
From a dynasty perspective, this chart represents some of the most valuable players we’ve seen over the past decade. As if D.J. Moore’s value hasn’t risen enough since last year, I think we can get a sense of where it could be headed when considering the other players in the cohort. If you’ve been on the fence about where to rank or value Moore, don’t be any more. He belongs firmly in the second round of dynasty startups and our team has him ranked that way.
From a redraft perspective, what could be in store for fantasy owners in 2019? The average positional finish for this wide receiver cohort in their age-22 seasons was 13.8. The table below shows a big reason why — the group averaged 81.1 receptions, representing an average increase of 22.8 receptions per player.
PLAYER SEASON REC AGE 21 REC AGE 22 CHANGE
Amari Cooper 2015 72 82 10
Keenan Allen 2013 71 77 6
Mike Evans 2014 68 74 6
Sammy Watkins 2014 65 60 -5
Percy Harvin 2009 60 71 11
Juju Smith-Schuster 2017 58 111 53
Larry Fitzgerald 2004 58 103 45
Jeremy Maclin 2009 56 70 14
Brandin Cooks 2014 53 84 31
DeAndre Hopkins 2013 52 76 24
Josh Gordon 2012 50 87 37
Allen Robinson 2014 48 80 32
Hakeem Nicks 2009 47 79 32
If we give Moore an extra 23 receptions in 2019, credit him with last year’s YPR and his touchdown rate, his projected line (rounding to nearest whole number) would be: 78/1,117/3. At 207.7 PPR points, that line would’ve been good for PPR WR20 in 2018. If Moore manages that this season he’ll keep the cohort at a perfect 14/14 in producing top-20 seasons. Incredible. Needless to say, these criteria will have a permanent place in my fantasy football scouting toolbox moving forward.
I want to leave you with one more golden nugget. If I set the criteria to age 21 and more than 3.0 receptions per game but only require six games (instead of 10), one more player joins the group. He was a rookie in 2018, his dynasty ADP is currently 109.8 and his best ball ADP is currently 102.1.
It’s Keke Coutee.
Age 22 Rookie Wide Receivers
Of course, we need to run 22-year-old rookies through the same filters to see if these metrics are actionable for a larger sample, or if they should be reserved for evaluating only 21-year-olds. Which age-22 2018 rookie wide receivers hit the 3-and-10 metrics? How has the age-22 cohort gone on to perform since the year 2000?
Between 2000 and 2017, there were 33 instances of 22-year-old rookies hitting the 3-and-10 metrics.
- 11/33 have a top-12 PPR season (33.3%)
- 20/33 have recorded a top-24 PPR season (60.6%)
- 26/33 have posted a top-36 PPR season (78.7%)
- 18/33 were PPR WR3s in their age-22 season (54.5%)
Takeaways
Twenty-one-year-old rookie wide receivers who averaged three receptions per game and played at least 10 games have posted at least one top-20 WR PPR finish in their careers 100% of the time since the year 2000. This cohort has also been straight fire when it comes to second-year breakouts, averaging a high-end WR2 finish as 22 year olds.
Twenty-two-year-old rookie wide receivers who hit the 3-and-10 rule metrics have posted at least one top-36 WR PPR finish in their careers 78.7 percent of the time since the year 2000.
I know most of us like to think in terms WR1/2/3, etc., so here’s a handy reference table to fall back on that uses the familiar 12/24/36 cutoffs.
Sources: RotoViz Screener and Pro Football Reference.
Image Credit: Steven King/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: D.J. Moore.
- 33,349
- 15,147
- Joined
- Apr 28, 2009
I don’t think those metrics are figuring in that Greg Olsen missed 7 games. Or that Samuel figures to have a bigger role this year and he missed 4 games as well. Hogan and Jarius Wright are new to the team and also will be in the mix for targets plus CMC will continue getting a **** ton of work.
Moore also sounded like a scared little ***** whenever Steve Smith asked him if he’d get him some fantasy points so I’m not trusting him
Moore also sounded like a scared little ***** whenever Steve Smith asked him if he’d get him some fantasy points so I’m not trusting him
- 7,649
- 4,815
- Joined
- Apr 15, 2013
am i the only one who has no desire in panthers WR?
feel like cam just isn’t an accurate enough qb to warrant big WR #s and inside the 10 they’ll either run cam, cmc or a pass to olsen depending on his health
feel like cam just isn’t an accurate enough qb to warrant big WR #s and inside the 10 they’ll either run cam, cmc or a pass to olsen depending on his health
- 33,349
- 15,147
- Joined
- Apr 28, 2009
Exactly. I live here...I’ve seen this **** Cam’s whole career. Only WR he was able to make fantasy relevant was Kelvin Benjamin because he’s like 6’7 and could catch Cam’s sailing passes and was a big *** red zone target. And even his best year was 1008 yards and 9 TD’s. I can’t trust Cam’s accuracy enough to use a premium pick on a 5’11 WR of his.
- 33,349
- 15,147
- Joined
- Apr 28, 2009
Am I the only one that loves Emmanuel Sanders value and the fact he’s looked great in practice but also is a little weary he’s going to get popped for PED’s?
Dude is coming back from the worst injury in sports at a position that’s all about your explosiveness and cutting and they’ve said he’s looked like the best player in camp all summer. Never seen anybody come back from that THIS quick.
Dude is coming back from the worst injury in sports at a position that’s all about your explosiveness and cutting and they’ve said he’s looked like the best player in camp all summer. Never seen anybody come back from that THIS quick.
- 74,412
- 23,891
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
Achilles injury has me leery but the adp is a steal if he’s on some compound v ****
- 7,688
- 19,568
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2012
Been mock drafting Curtis Samuel in the really late rounds. I like his upside, hopefully it stays that way next weekend for the real drafts
- 33,349
- 15,147
- Joined
- Apr 28, 2009
This is DJ Moore from last year.
This is Curtis Samuel.
And Samuel has gotten hype from the beat writers at practice every day calling him the best player in camp. I have literally no idea why people are so fascinated with DJ Moore, especially at his ADP.
- 7,688
- 19,568
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2012
It's all about the draft price especially late rounds. I would like to think I'd have at least 3 solid WRs by then, just looking for upside and match up/bye week fill ins. Samuel fits all the criteria for me
jpzx
Supporter
- 55,677
- 25,235
- Joined
- Feb 7, 2008
What’s a creative way to determine a draft order amongst friends?
- 12,344
- 4,712
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2004
One of my leagues does a pretty cool one. We pick a Nascar race and draw out of a hat for pole positions. First team picked gets the drivers in pole position 1 and 24, 2nd team picked gets pole positions 2/23, 3rd gets 3/22, and so on. And then the draft order is determined by where the drivers finish the race. Nobody in the league even watches Nascar but we get pumped up when the race goes off
. I actually think the race we used this year will go off tomorrow.
- 2,389
- 1,091
- Joined
- Nov 21, 2012
nvm
Last edited:
- 12,344
- 4,712
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2004
Josh Gordon has been reinstated.
- 2,389
- 1,091
- Joined
- Nov 21, 2012
The pats rb schedule was already great. It just got even better. Sony and white are looking juicy
- 12,344
- 4,712
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2004
Was just able to draft him at pick 147 in a best ball league as my WR6 
.
.
- 7,688
- 19,568
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2012
Great news to see he's better, still won't draft him tho
- 74,412
- 23,891
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
My league has everyone randomly assigned a player from the giants and jets and the total yardage in week 2s preseason game dictates the order. I have Rosas from the giants so I’m hoping for one 30 yard field goal and nothing else to get a 5-9 pick.
- 33,349
- 15,147
- Joined
- Apr 28, 2009
Josh Gordon is the biggest tease in fantasy football history. He’ll find a way to not be on the field in the next two months.
- 74,412
- 23,891
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
Looks like I’m getting the third pick. Smh.
First mock I did had me netting
Wilson
Evans
Edelman
Moore
Kamara
White
Andrews
Lamar Miller
Dede Westbrook
Darrel Henderson
Curtis Samuel
First mock I did had me netting
Wilson
Evans
Edelman
Moore
Kamara
White
Andrews
Lamar Miller
Dede Westbrook
Darrel Henderson
Curtis Samuel
