OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[johnnyredstorm]

not touching oil just yet. gonna give it lil more time to see what it does.

grabbed a VIX call spread small just to have volatility exposure. April 23-28 for .80. 2 lot. basically a hedge.

took the EBAY calls off for a 4 cent loss. should've popped at the open, didn't so I got out.

I'm gonna look to do something with DIS in the near future. Not sure what yet but I wanna get long.

Might take a look at something YHOO as well, like a call fly if I get a good price. Not sure. implied move for Feb and March is like 7 and 8 bucks. Could head lower of course, but looks like there's some action on the horizon.

huge put action in AMD today. bunch of july 2.5 puts and some small orders sprinkled. 1.5 jan 2016 puts. not taking it but someone could be playing for bankruptcy.

 

[tripleddd]

Action is wild today. Waiting on the FOMC minutes doe

 

[johnnyredstorm]

View media item 1341273if you don't follow him already and like these types of graphs, follow @OphirGottlieb


Took 9 out of 10 of my UPS calls off at 1.55. leaving 1 call on for a runner, or if i get filled today at 1.70.

paper bought a few more just now at 1.70 i didn't get filled yet but i should soon. gonna just take my money and call it a day.

looking to exit the majority of my CTRL position as well, have 9/11 calls offered at 1.3. rather just keep 2 on as a spec than all 11.

those EBAY calls doubled without me, oh wells. name of the game.

grabbed some april 10 CLF calls for .43. paper bought a bunch. countertrend, just needs one little bounce to make this trade work. 10 lot.

 

[kn0wledgeable]

Does anyone here use stock wars

 

[natch johnson]

$NUGT long

Tried to warn you guys. Could go to $30...

 

[johnnyredstorm]

test and hold 46 in crude ill be looking for playing oil for a bounce prob april calls or maybe even later in uso just in case it consolidates a little so theta doesn't kill me

breaks 46 I'm might just grab puts

theres a 15 year trend line it's riding so thats my support and risk

this is countertrend so ill be using small size, 300 bucks of risk max

 

[based mod]

We ready for another V-shaped rally?

$NUGT long

Tried to warn you guys. Could go to $30...

People have been saying stuff like this since the beginning of 2013. Look at where it is now

I'm sure it'll bounce back at some point, but I'll wait in the sidelines until there's indication of a recovery.

 

[wizards23]

Yeah gold/miners is in a tough spot right now to get long

I'm getting back trading next week. Been a wild few months for my personal life. Time to get back on track and get it

 

[thestranger]

Ok

 

[based mod]

Hey fellas,

Havent been keeping up with this thread as much, but just wanted to drop a line to say I finished 2014 a fully licensed stockbroker. I spend most of my day cold-calling to solicit new business. It's not easy, but i enjoy being on the phone and pitching stock. I work long hours (usually 8am to 11pm). It may come as a surprise, but, yes, people still do open brokerage accounts over the phone. I've opened about 10 accounts since i got licensed.

Most all of them started out with $1500-$3000 initial trades. Not a lot at all. On most of those accounts i didnt even charge commission for the first trade. Thats to say, i made no money on those accounts. But on about half of them, my "supervisors" were able to raise significant dollars on second and third trades and/or account transfers. Two accounts that started with $1500 and $3000 initial trades are now in high six figures. After putting that money to work in the market, i took home about $3k on commissions last month. Not a whole heck of a lot, not to mention uncle sam takes a hefty cut, but its a nice start and a nice taste of whats possible in the broker business.

Anyway, happy to answer any questions.

Also, i still daytrade while im at work cold-calling.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Good stuff boss. Gotta be fun doing something you love regardless of how tough it can be at times. Good luck man.

 

[thestranger]

asda

 

[thestranger]

wf

 

[based mod]

I'm kinda sorta at the point where I want to throw the majority of my brokerage account portfolio into an ETF or two and let it ride. Reserve a little bit of play money for kicks :\

 

[johnnyredstorm]

my cousin's been trading SPY lately with this volatility and made good change. me personally, i'm not into index or ETF trading for the most part, unless it's a commodity. i just like individual names and shorter timeframes.


I've been studying value areas lately. Haven't really taken any trades off it just yet but will do so this week. Spent the week watching and observing how it works and I'm satisfied enough to implement the strategy. Makes trading more methodical and less random for me.

I'm gonna try to be as clear as possible here so bare with me. To understand what I'm about to write, you need to check out the value area discussion video I have posted in the OP to get an idea how to set this up on your charts and use it. I use the value area for the month (if it's January, i'm drawing my lines from December's value area) and the day in my charts. For the month, I can draw my lines out and leave them for the entire month. For the day, I have to redraw them every morning since I'm using the prior day's information.

To get the month, I use the daily chart and switch the volume profile parameters from Daily to Month. Draw my lines and I switch back to the 15 or 5 minute and change the parameters back to Daily so I can get the value areas for that current day. I like to use the value for the month and the day simultaneously so I get a macro and micro feel for the stock.

If something is trading below value, the bottom of value should be resistance. If it breaks into value, that could be a long signal and there's a decent chance it will be magnetized to the point of control (the middle line). Usually you wanna take some profits at the point of control. If something is trading inside of value and tests the top of value, you can take a short at the top of value with a stop just outside of it, or you could buy the break above value with a stop just inside of it. If you take the short, you're looking for a move back to the point of control to take some profits. If it is within value and tests the bottom of value, you can play for a bounce with a stop just under value or you can take a short with the break below value with a stop just inside value.

Let's take a look at AAPL these past two days:

The pink lines is the value area for the month, the green are for the day.

View media item 1344454
As you see, it gapped above it's value area for the day and broke into value for the month. You could've taken a long here with your stop just outside of value and targeted a move to the point of control. I don't necessarily like taking shorts or longs off the point of control so I would've been finished with the trade at that point.

On Friday, it opened above value for the day but rejected it and traded back into value. You could've taken this as a short signal with a stop just outside of value. The point of control was really near the top of value so you could have taken a target at the point of control and left a little on as you saw it fail to provide support and you could've targeted the bottom of value. Conversely, you could've played the bounce off the bottom of value once it held value with a stop just under value targeting a move back to the point of control.

Nothing's perfect, but trading stocks is all about probability and this is an edge that looks decent and works well for a buddy of mine from the KOTM room.

FB today:

TOS cut off the bottom of value for the month so what's visible is the top of value and point of control for the month. The bottom is around 74.76.

View media item 1344455
I had two plans this morning and I always have two plans. It's what I learned from Investors Underground. My plan was to buy the break above value for the month, or short the rejection of value for the month.

Unfortunately, I had an AAPL call spread on and for whatever reason after I took profits this morning and closed the spread I lost buying power for the day so I couldn't follow through on my plan. But as you can tell, FB rejected the top of value for the month, rejected the top of value for the day and cut through the point of control for the day as well. It got near the bottom of value before finding support and rotating back to the point of control. (My bottom of value price level is a little sloppy since I put it back on real quick. You want to be more careful during market hours making sure your price levels line up correctly)

It's not a guarantee and deciding whether to play a bounce or short could be predicated on the stock's overall strength as well as the greater market, but once you get a feel for a few names, you sort of just know which to choose.

Trading value areas is a nice resource that gives you a defined risk and a bit of an edge you may not have otherwise had. Instead of obsessing over each tick, you have a plan outlined and you know what you're willing to lose from the get go. Follow your rules and this could be a lucrative strategy if it interests you.

 

[degenerate423]

You teaching classes in here now, JRS?

Looking to buy a couple shares of RDS.B on Monday.  Hoping I didn't wait too long to get in on oil, definitely seeing a rally soon.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Lmao I just came across this stuff the past 2 weeks and find it so fascinating. I just had to share and I hope I articulated it well enough.

I like the idea of starting to nibble in oil. I'm trying to be patient though.

This NFLX looks a lil interesting. Gonna check it out on Monday, see where it opens. Maybe put on a spread of some kind if I get good r/r. Could go either way at this point.

TWTR is another example. Broke above value for the month yesterday, today it broke above value for the day. Nice moves following both breaks of resistance. Could've bought the dip this morning o/u the top of value for the month if you're into bounce plays.

 

[degenerate423]

Lmao I just came across this stuff the past 2 weeks and find it so fascinating. I just had to share and I hope I articulated it well enough.

I like the idea of starting to nibble in oil. I'm trying to be patient though.

This NFLX looks a lil interesting. Gonna check it out on Monday, see where it opens. Maybe put on a spread of some kind if I get good r/r. Could go either way at this point.

You have way more passion for this stuff than I do

.  What makes you patient on oil?

 

[johnnyredstorm]

I'm just worried there might be one more shakeout to that 46 level in crude. It's trading below value for the month but I don't necessarily wanna wait for it to break into value to get long. What I might do is buy one or two April calls in USO and add on a dip to 46 in crude or a break into value. I might just do that take a starter and slowly add in. I'm not trying to put too much risk on though, probably just like 300 bucks or so. Maybe grab some April 20s in USO, gotta see the price on Monday. I don't wanna take anything before March though just in case it consolidates for a while—don't wanna worry about time decay.

 

[degenerate423]

I'm just worried there might be one more shakeout to that 46 level in crude. It's trading below value for the month but I don't necessarily wanna wait for it to break into value to get long. What I might do is buy one or two April calls in USO and add on a dip to 46 in crude or a break into value. I might just do that take a starter and slowly add in. I'm not trying to put too much risk on though, probably just like 300 bucks or so. Maybe grab some April 20s in USO, gotta see the price on Monday. I don't wanna take anything before March though just in case it consolidates for a while—don't wanna worry about time decay.

Ah, I need to get into options.  My buddy was making a killing on gold/silver puts not too long ago, so I started reading up on them and want to test it out with a couple hundred.

Are you monitoring the oil/currency war between US/Russia?

 

[johnnyredstorm]

I tried to short gold via puts but man I got in too late. It's been sideways to moderately higher the past two months. Time decay got me but not too much dollar risk so I could live with the loss.

I really haven't paid too much attention to the currency war. I'm familiar with what's going on but haven't been focused or trading around it really. I honestly just focus mostly on FB AAPL TWTR BABA and GILD and order flow/unusual options activity.

 

[degenerate423]

I tried to short gold via puts but man I got in too late. It's been sideways to moderately higher the past two months. Time decay got me but not too much dollar risk so I could live with the loss.

I really haven't paid too much attention to the currency war. I'm familiar with what's going on but haven't been focused or trading around it really. I honestly just focus mostly on FB AAPL TWTR BABA and GILD and order flow/unusual options activity.

Once the markets started rallying around spring/summer last year, I knew gold and silver would take a hit.  I wish I was up on options back then

.

I prefer tech companies as well, but I try to grab a little of everything.  The stuff going on between US and Russia is probably as fascinating to me as value areas are to you

.  Figured I might as well ride oil while it's taking a beating.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Word oil is interesting right now just gotta avoid the drillers and highly leveraged companies. I wouldn't be shocked if RIG cuts its dividend eventually. XOM on the other hand Looks good fundamentally and each dip could be worth checking out.

 

[degenerate423]

Word

oil is interesting right now just gotta avoid the drillers and highly leveraged companies. I wouldn't be shocked if RIG cuts its dividend eventually. XOM on the other hand Looks good fundamentally and each dip could be worth checking out.

Yeah, I'm watching XOM and RDS for the oil sector.  Don't know anything about RIG, however their dividend is crazy

.

Tech is really the only sector where I'll mess with companies I don't know off the top of my head.  Any other sector, the company has to be a household name or close to it and they better have started a war or two

.

 

[thefuncooker]

I've been using robinhood for a few weeks and it's not bad. Barebones but can't beat zero commissions. No minimums for anyone just starting out. 

The shake shack ipo might be available through loyal3 since it's a consumer facing company so it can't hurt to open up an account there just to see if you can get any of that.