OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

antidope

Supporter
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Joined Jan 2, 2012
You guys are discounting how much employers want employees to never leave. My office has doctors on staff ( I do not work in healthcare) in the building partly so we don't have to leave for minor things. Imagine when they can leverage telehealth

I think this is an interesting take but I’m not sure I agree. It’s so much easier to hop on a telehealth appointment instead of leaving the office, traveling to the doctor, etc. I think convenience weighs out here unless you have a more serious illness.
Came in to make this same point. It is a huge factor.
 

ASE

2,044
661
Joined Jan 8, 2005
PTON will have short term pressure, but it's cemented itself and will only grow. What happens when PTON opens up gyms and charges you $25 a month to go there for live classes as opposed to buying a bike? People who are negative PTON, are misunderstanding the branding power and opportunity that has been created. They have to **** things up to lose their moat. Subscription revenue is also only going to keep growing and eventually be the dominant part of their business. It'll be years, of course, but give it time.

Max Pain warning on TDOC
Levels are 194 and 165. If you can't see those 2 numbers and be comfortable closing your eyes, make a plan.
i agree with the peloton assessment and considering what stuff like soul cycle and solid core charge per class $25 a month is a bargain.

i absolutely still think peloton is a fad, but it definitely has a lot of room to grow before it burns out.
 
72,819
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Joined Apr 4, 2008
puking premium closed CMLF LFMD and TDOC spreads
trimmed the add in TDOC this morning
looking to raise as much money as possible for as much roku as possible in the event we puke out big time
 
1,189
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Joined Nov 17, 2013
Im out of cash and bought multiple dips in February and here we are still dipping. I think some of this is quad witching, slight fear and market correction. Still overall a bullish market and i see things turning around come April - August.
This is me.

I LOVE me some red. But when you're basically out of cash from buying "the dips" and it just keeps dipping?

Nah, this ain't fun :lol:

So many juicy opportunities right now and I'm just watching.
 
583
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Joined Sep 4, 2020
I REALLY want to buy right now. And I know I will never get the timing perfect. But there is nothing positive about anything in the U.S. right now from an economic perspective. A lot of people are going to be faced with reality here shortly. States opening, states staying closed. Tax season.
 
583
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Joined Sep 4, 2020
are SPACS done for because geezus i been seeing red for the past 2 weeks
My read is that SPACs and Crypto will be subject to increased scrutiny in the coming months. Gensler does a great job of playing both sides, but I am not bullish on either investment type. He is one of the smartest professors I have ever experienced and knows the nuances as if it's his area of expertise.
 
22,078
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Joined Jan 30, 2007
Trimmed a lot of stuff, selling off RKT, CCIV and PYPL again. I think ill make a move on GMBL, FUBO and finally DIS.

P.S. Are they pushing MIK to the moon?
 
8,672
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Joined Jan 22, 2015
what do you think is the move right now then?

I REALLY want to buy right now. And I know I will never get the timing perfect. But there is nothing positive about anything in the U.S. right now from an economic perspective. A lot of people are going to be faced with reality here shortly. States opening, states staying closed. Tax season.
 
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Joined Oct 3, 2005
-2% days ago got everyone scared and had to trim because all the stories they convinced themselves about everything had changed. +2% the following day had everyone telling themselves new stories about thematics on 30% of the markets tickers and they had bought back in with conviction. -.5% today..... we're trimming everything.....thematics and reversals. Buy 1 share, trim 2 shares, hedge above, hedge below. Some of you need to chill haha 😆. Ask yourself....Do you really know anything about any of this ****? Some of you seem to be one -3% day away from questioning everything in life.
 
1,189
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Joined Nov 17, 2013
I am 99% cash aside from my speculative crypto plays. I am waiting to either jump back into value stocks or when P/E multiples drop to the 7-10x range for growth stocks.
What P/E multiples do you expect from the value stocks if you expect growth stocks to be in that range?
 
583
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Joined Sep 4, 2020
u in NFTs at all?
I am currently writing a paper on real estate NFT's. I will be done by the end of March and will share my specific thoughts. But yes, I always participate in mindless economics lol. I have a few Street Fighter cards that I am holding. I created a few flyers hoping someone bites on rarible. They are hype at this point but some have long-term utility.
 
583
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Joined Sep 4, 2020
What P/E multiples do you expect from the value stocks if you expect growth stocks to be in that range?
I normalize earnings so that number might not resonate or be applicable.

Generally speaking, if a stock is trading within 20 P/E you can look at it as a decent entry as long as they have high ROIC, net margins and free cash.
 

antidope

Supporter
54,229
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Joined Jan 2, 2012
I normalize earnings so that number might not resonate or be applicable.

Generally speaking, if a stock is trading within 20 P/E you can look at it as a decent entry as long as they have high ROIC, net margins and free cash.
So basically you think we're at post tech bubble range where growth is gonna give it all back in 6-12 months?
 
23,204
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Joined Dec 23, 2009
Do basic ratios even hold the same weight they used to when trying to value companies? It feels like 2020 changed the landscape of investing and trading and the old rules are either out the window or being rewritten.

Could we correct back to "normalcy?" Sure. But when and why try to time it?
 
1,311
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Joined May 24, 2013
Part1

$APPH - AppHarvest
Introduction to AppHarvest
Website: AppHarvest.com
Stock Price: $30.00
Market Cap: $2.9 billion
Headquarters: Lexington, Kentucky, USA


Founded: 2017
Founders: Jonathan Webb
CEO: Jonathan Webb [personal website]
Employees: 300+
VC funding: $142 million [click here]

AppHarvest Investor Presentation, September 2020 [click here]
AppHarvest Investor Presentation, December 2020 [click here]
AppHarvest presenting at the ICR Conference [click here]
AppHarvest presenting at AgTech Innovation Summit [click here]

AppHarvest CEO on CNBC, February 2021 [watch here]
A look inside AppHarvest [watch here]
AppHarvest bringing indoor grown vegetables to grocers [watch here]
AppHarvest CEO speaking on TD Ameritrade Network [watch here]
AppHarvest makes $125 million acquisition, March 2020 [read here]

2021 revenues: $21 million (est)
2022 revenues: $62 million (est)
2023 revenues: $145 million (est)
2024 revenues: $258 million (est)
2025 revenues: $387 million (est)
$APPH - AppHarvest




INTRODUCTION:
Back in December when I did writeups on $MWK at $12 and $FUTU at $40 my investment thesis was that these are two high-growth companies were trading at ridiculously cheap valuations and once other investors figured this out the stocks would rally. Turns out I was right because both stocks are up 4x since my writeups.
In late January and early February I did writeups on $DMTK and $TMDX because I thought these were very disruptive genomics ($DMTK) and med-tech ($TMDX) companies with upcoming catalysts that could push the stock prices 50-100% higher within 3-6 months. So far I’ve been right on these too because the large insurance carriers are coming out in support of $DMTK’s genomics patches and the FDA just announced the review hearing for $TMDX.
My writeup this week for $APPH is a little different. I don’t think $APPH is ridiculously cheap and I don’t think there any huge growth catalysts on the horizon but this is a company that I am super excited about and I want to support their mission and give them some much deserved exposure.
Not only is ESG (ie Environmental. Social. Governance) investing becoming more mainstream but as the C-suite, the Board of Directors and shareholders begin to value “purpose over profits” then companies like $APPH will always trade at a premium to their intrinsic value which is fine with me.



Did you know that 32% of all fresh vegetables and 69% of all fresh vine crops sold in the U.S. are imported?
Did you know the UN has said the world will need 50% more food by 2050?
Did you know that 70% of fresh water is already dedicated to agriculture?
These are all startling statistics and when I started doing my research a couple months ago on $APPH and learning about the benefits of indoor farming I really fell in love with this company so I’m excited to share it with my 30,000+ subscribers.
If you are looking to invest in companies that are doing something good for humanity and/or doing something good for our planet then I would encourage you to consider $APPH for your portfolio.




OVERVIEW:
AppHarvest aka $APPH is an ag-tech company focused on improving our food supply through high-tech indoor farming and improved efficiencies in every way. $APPH is combining conventional agriculture techniques with cutting edge technology to grow non-GMO, chemical-free produce. The company has started with fresh vine vegetables but already has plans to expand into other vegetables and then fruits.
When I first heard of large-scale indoor farming it sounded crazy because I thought “why would someone spend the money to build a large structure in the middle of nowhere when they can just grow outside in the dirt for free” but as you study the industry and the data is clear that indoor farming is the future.



$APPH not only buys the land and builds these massive high-tech greenhouses but they also do the growing, harvesting and selling. They are a vertically integrated AgTech company with ambitious growth plans.
Their first facility is in Morehead, Kentucky. This building is 2.8 million square feet which is the size of 50 football fields. Next to the facility they have a 10-acre rainwater retention pond which is the size of 70 Olympic sized swimming pools. This water is captured from the roof and then filtered multiple times with sand and UV light as it’s recycled over and over throughout the facility. This is how $APPH is able to use 90% less water than open-field farming.




$APPH has the facility in Morehead up and running and has already broken ground on two more facilities that will be equally as large and productive — the Morehead and Richmond facilities will grow vine crops while the Berea facility will grow leafy greens.




PROBLEM:
There are a lot of problems with traditional outdoor, open-field farming which include weather conditions (too hot or too cold, not enough sun, can only grow certain months of the year, etc) as well as insects/animals and the need for pesticides. Just think about the crazy weather we’ve had this winter in the US not to mention all the fires in California. If you talk to any climate/weather expert these problems are not going away and will likely continue to get worse and more unpredictable. In most areas of the country you can only farm in certain months. This is why indoor farming produces 30x the crop yield per acre.
Let me say that again because if you only take one thing away from this writeup I want it to be this — AppHarvest is able to generate 30x the crop yield per acre compared to conventional open-field farming. This is a mind boggling statistic and should be enough to convince most people that indoor farming is the future.



It’s pretty sad that only 10% of Americans eat enough fruits and vegetables. Part of this is because we develop bad eating habits as children or never learn how bad foods can impact our bodies but also because fruits and vegetables (especially organic) can get very expensive. If you are living on a lower fixed income you might gravitate towards the cheaper and less healthy foods. As a country we need to change this and one way we do it is by growing more pesticide-free fruits and vegetables in the US which means no more importing from other countries. There’s no reason why we should be importing as much as 50% of our fruits and vegetables from other countries. We need to increase our home-grown food supply, not just for us but for future generations.

SOLUTION:
We are dealing with a food crisis in the US and many parts of the world — it’s getting worse not better. This problem can’t be fixed overnight or by one company but $APPH will be part of the solution. Given the 30x yield per acre it makes financial sense to grow our fruits and vegetables in this massive indoor high-tech greenhouses with specialized irrigation systems to collect rainwater and then recycle it. It’s simply a better, cheaper, more efficient way to grow our most essential foods.



These state of the art indoor farming facilities have the ability to control everything and therefore establish the ideal environment for whatever fruit or vegetable they want to grow. From the temperature to the humidity to the special LED lights to the water flow to the nutrients in the soil to the bees — everything is dialed in exactly how they want it. Nothing is left to chance. No more dealing with mother nature. No more hoping for sunlight. No more spraying pesticides to keep the insects away. Indoor farming is better in every way.



I actually have a couple friends that live in Kentucky and they have visited the $APPH facility and bought some of their tomatoes in the local grocery stores and they said they’re amazing — by far the best tasting and highest quality tomato that you can find anywhere in the country. The fact that Martha Stewart is a Board member and ambassador for $APPH means a lot because she only puts her name/brand next to the best.



If you’re looking for some additional details on why indoor farming is so much better than open-field farming please [click here] and you can read about the recycled rainwater, special lighting, pest management, pollination management and advanced growing techniques which includes sensors for monitoring and early detection.



FACILITY / GREENHOUSE:
I’ve never been inside the $APPH facility but I’ve love to visit someday. I heard Mr. Webb say in an interview that this facility in Morehead is twice the size of the average Amazon fulfillment center.



In every interview or presentation that I have seen/heard, the company talks a lot about why they chose Kentucky for their first three facilities. Kentucky is centrally located in the US and within 1-day driving distance from 70% of the US population. Kentucky also has cheap land and is looking to boost the economy in an area that used to be know for their coal mines. Jonathan and his team take a lot of pride in the jobs they have created throughout Kentucky which is one reason why they have such strong support from local/state politicians and government leaders. $APPH wants to help Kentucky become one of the leaders/innovators in AgTech.



In some of the materials and presentations I shared above you can learn more about the advanced, high-tech features within the $APPH facilities but it’s clear the company put a lot of thought into building the best state-of-the-art greenhouse that money could buy. I believe the Morehead facility cost $125 million to build so there’s clearly a significant upfront capital cost for $APPH.
For instance, the $APPH roofs are composed of diffused glass to allow the maximum amount of sunlight to come through. At night or when the sun is obscured, they supplement the sunlight with top-of-the-line LEDs, which are 40% more efficient than typical lighting. Each LED utilizes a passive cooling system, producing far less radiant heat and allowing the crop care specialists to have greater control over the indoor climate.
I was also shocked to learn that $APPH uses 500 beehives in their facility, each holding up to 125 bees and the queen which enables them to pollinate more than 700,000 tomato plants.
$APPH also uses sensors, cameras and robotics to sort and move thousands of pounds of produce every hour through their facility. It’s quite the operation.


I’m no growing expert but it’s still cool to learn about this stuff — not sure if these are the exact lights that $APPH uses but feel free to look around the Philips website if you are curious [click here].



$APPH puts an emphasis on hiring people that believe in their mission and want to make a difference. When you see interviews with employees you can tell they love this company and want to play a role in fixing our food supply. I’m thinking it’s probably hard to appreciate the size and scale of these facilities unless you actually walk through on.



BUSINESS MODEL:
The business model with $APPH is probably a little easier to understand than some of my previous writeups where you’re dealing with medical devices, hospitals, patients, insurance companies, etc.
$APPH is growing vegetables and selling them to produce distributors or in some cases direct to grocers.
They have assembled a phenomenal construction team that is responsible for putting up 10-12 more facilities over the next 4 years. The next state after Kentucky will be New York which they can use to increase the food supply into the Northeast.



The timeline below gives us a better idea of when these future facilities will be coming online. I’m a little surprised we don’t see any definitive plans to have facilities on the West Coast or perhaps it’s just cost prohibitive to do anything in California right now not to mention the risk of fires is something that $APPH probably took into account.




PARTNERSHIPS:
From the early days of $APPH when it was just a business plan, Jonathan knew that it was critical to have strong partners and partnerships. If you listen to any of the webcasts or presentations you will hear Jonathan and his team talk about the Netherlands which is apparently the AgTech capital of the world. I believe there are 100x more square feet of greenhouses per capita in the Netherlands versus the US which means they are literally decades ahead of us in this new way of farming and growing food.
This article talks more about $APPH’s partnerships with the Netherlands [click here].
This writeup on Dalsem’s website talks about their partnership with $APPH [click here] including this 3D rendering of the facility [watch here]. I believe it’s a 3 mile walk around the entire facility.



DISTRIBUTION:
One of the reasons that $APPH chose Kentucky was the proximity to the world’s largest logistics companies like UPS, FedEx, Amazon and DHL which all have major hubs here.

 
1,311
926
Joined May 24, 2013
Part2

$APPH has also be landing and expanding retail partnerships with the largest grocers in the country.



B-CORPORATION:
I have not talked about this year but $APPH is one of the only publicly traded B-Corps in the US which is a big deal for ESG investors. It’s a very rigorous process to become a Certified B-Corp and it means you are held to a higher standard.



Back to my introduction when I said that $APPH company executives, board members and shareholders don’t put profits or purpose — this is proof — being a B Corp means you are making a commitment to your employees, your customers, your shareholders and your community. Very few companies have taken their mission to this level.



MARKET OPPORTUNITY:
We all know the produce market is enormous but most importantly we need to stop importing our fruits and vegetables from other countries. Not only are they using more pesticides but we’re wasting money on excessive transportation costs and then this produce is less fresh by the time it arrives in our grocery stores which leads to more spoilage.



As I mentioned earlier, $APPH is starting off with tomatoes then going into cucumbers then leafy greens then peppers then fruits.




FINANCIALS / VALUATION:
I’ll be the first one to admit that $APPH looks a little pricey based on the current revenues but this is why I don’t mind getting in early and being patient. Of course I want to maximize the performance in my portfolio/funds, but I also want to support companies that are doing something good for humanity and the planet. $APPH will likely only do $20-25 million in revenues this year but that number should grow rapidly as more facilities come on-line. If $APPH can 10x revenues over the next 3 years then I believe we could see the stock up 5x during the same time frame or at the very least 5x over the next 5 years which is good enough for me considering the $APPH mission.



With regards to margins, we’re not talking 60-70% software margins but $APPH can still be profitable since the bulk of their capital costs are upfront when building out the facility. I don’t expect $APPH to be one of my top performing portfolio holdings but I don’t need it to be. If my goal is to find disruptive companies that I can get excited/passionate about while also providing strong shareholders returns then I’m doing my job.



MANAGEMENT:
Not only does Jonathan Webb come across as one of the nicest, most genuine CEO’s but he’s also one of the best. Prior to starting $APPH back in early 2017 he was building some of the largest renewable energy projects in the country which does have some similarities to building the world’s largest high-tech indoor farming company. Jonathan is an easy guy to cheer for.



$APPH has a very strong and diverse team. I see tons of operating experience from within similar industries of food, distribution and sustainability.
Very recently, David Lee who was the former CFO of Impossible Foods has joined $APPH as their President. David is very well respected within the industry. This is great hire by the company and shows that Jonathan can attract the best talent to $APPH.


CONCLUSION:
I think by now you know where I stand on $APPH — this company is doing something amazing and I want to support them. I don’t expect to triple my money in $APPH over the next two years but I don’t need to. My other top holdings are doing great so I’m just proud to be on the $APPH bandwagon for the ride.
I have a sizeable position in $APPH within my personal account and I also own it in my fund at Social Capital. I have no idea what this stock does over the next 6-12 months but I’ll be buying any and all pullbacks along the way.



It’s very hard to value a company like this since most of their revenue growth is coming in the future. It’s also hard to predict how much ESG investors will fall in love with this company once they hear about them. Even though I’ve owned $APPH for a couple months and I’ve listed the stock in my portfolio on Google sheets, I’m surprised how few people have actually dug into this company and tried to understand the massive opportunity that indoor farming could turn into over the next decade or two. We have a huge food supply problem in this country (as do other countries) and $APPH could be one of the biggest solutions. I think it’s very possible in 10 years that the majority of produce consumed in the US comes from an indoor farm like $APPH which means this could be a $30+ billion company in a decade which is 10x from here and plenty of growth to keep me happy.

 
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