US Economy

90
 
Ima need more data

most recent gallop poll.

Record-High Optimism on Personal Finances in U.S.
BY RJ REINHART
Record-High Optimism on Personal Finances in U.S.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • 59% in U.S. say they are now better off financially than last year
  • 74% say they will be better off financially in a year
  • Strong partisan divide in optimism on personal financial situation
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans' views on their personal financial situation have been climbing since 2018 and are now at or near record highs in Gallup's trends. Nearly six in 10 Americans (59%) now say they are better off financially than they were a year ago, up from 50% last year.
Line graph. Americans’ perceptions that their personal financial situations are better this year than last.

These data come from Gallup's annual Mood of the Nation survey, conducted Jan. 2-15. The survey was completed after months of historically low levels of unemployment and as the Dow Jones Industrial Average neared the 30,000 mark for the first time.
The current 59% of Americans who say they are better off financially than they were a year ago is essentially tied for the all-time high of 58% in January 1999. That was recorded during the dot-com boom, with conditions similar to the current state of the economy -- a stock market rocketing to then-record highs and unemployment at multidecade lows -- though GDP growth was higher at that time.
From 1998 to 2000, at least half of Americans rated their financial situation better than that of a year ago. However, in most surveys from 2001 to 2018, the percentage saying their personal finances were better off than the previous year was under 50% -- with a low of 23% in May 2009, during the Great Recession.
Record-High Level of Optimism About Financial Future
In addition to U.S. adults' highly positive report on their current financial situation, Americans are also expressing peak optimism about their future personal financial situation. About three in four U.S. adults (74%) predict they will be better off financially a year from now, the highest in Gallup's trend since 1977.
Line graph. Americans’ views of their personal financial situation in a year from now.

Since Gallup began asking this question in 1977, Americans have consistently been more optimistic than pessimistic about where their personal financial situation is headed, with more saying their finances will be better in a year than they are now. The previous record high, 71%, was seen in 1998 during the dot-com boom.
Partisan Divide in Optimism
Given today's highly politically polarized environment, it is perhaps not surprising that Republicans and Democrats see their personal finances differently. There is a 33-percentage-point gap between Republicans' (76%) and Democrats' (43%) reports of being financially better off today than they were a year ago.
There is also a partisan gap when it comes to optimism about one's future finances, though it is smaller than the difference seen in attitudes toward current conditions. Among Republicans, 83% say their personal financial situation will be better in a year, compared with 60% of Democrats.
Independents fall in between on both measures, with 58% saying they are better off now than a year ago and 76% reporting they will be better off next year.
Bottom Line
Americans' levels of optimism about both their current financial situation and where it will be a year from now are at or near record highs. These views align with President Donald Trump's contention that Americans are doing better under his presidency, and with his use of the economy and job growth as key selling points for his reelection. Republicans' positive views on their finances are something of a given for a GOP president, at least during good economic times. The majority levels of optimism among political independents are more significant for Trump's reelection prospects -- and something Trump will want to maintain in 2020 to stay competitive.
View complete question responses and trends.
Learn more about how the Gallup Poll Social Series works.

 

Consumer Confidence Revisits High Set in 2007

...and we all know what happened in 2008.

It began in 2007 with a crisis in the subprime mortgage market in the United States, and developed into a full-blown international banking crisis with the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008. ... The crisis was nonetheless followed by a global economic downturn, the Great Recession.
 
it Is though. The economy only looks good because the fed has been pumping money into markets and keeping interest rates low. Just wait till they stop and we have a crisis on par with 08.

lmaoooo @ the fact you can not only think that with confidence, but also put it in writing
a downturn, yes we are overdue

a crisis on par with 2008? That sounds like a cheap click bait headline
 
lmaoooo @ the fact you can not only think that with confidence, but also put it in writing
a downturn, yes we are overdue

a crisis on par with 2008? That sounds like a cheap click bait headline


My only point is "consumer confidence" is not the metric by which one should evaluate the market's performance / predict future outcomes.

Pointing out "consumer confidence" is irrelevant and indeed a distraction.

Clickbait indeed.
 
The Wall Street Journal
ECONOMY ECONOMIC DATA
U.S. Economy Added 225,000 Jobs in January
Robust payroll gain points to continued healthy labor market; jobless rate was 3.6%
The U.S. economy added an average 211,000 jobs over the past three months.
The U.S. economy added an average 211,000 jobs over the past three months.PHOTO: LYNNE SLADKY/ASSOCIATED PRESS

SHARE

By Sarah Chaney and Eric Morath
Updated Feb. 7, 2020 8:31 am ET
Employers added 225,000 jobs in January and the jobless rate was 3.6%, signs that the U.S. labor market is positioned to fuel economic growth in 2020.

Wages increased 3.1% from a year earlier, a touch higher than December’s annual rise of 3%.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast job growth of 158,000, an unemployment rate of 3.5% and year-over-year wage growth of 3.0%.

January’s robust payroll gain points to a continued healthy labor market in a U.S. economic expansion now in its 11th year. Over the past three months, the U.S. economy added an average 211,000 jobs. Job growth was revised higher in the last four months of 2019.

Robert Jones, president of American Sale, an Illinois-based retailer of home-recreation goods such as trampolines and hot tubs, said his company will add more workers this year. He expects a low unemployment rate and solid economy to help spur spending on big-ticket items.


“When you have more demand, you have more to do, so you just need more people,” Mr. Jones said.

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A strong labor market should help propel the broader economy, which was expanding at a moderate pace as 2019 came to a close.

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its meeting last week, after cutting interest rates three times last year. It is taking a wait-and-see approach on its next move with an eye on trade, business investment and global growth.

In recent weeks, new risks have emerged particularly for the manufacturing sector. Boeing Co. halted production of its troubled 737 MAX aircraft, an impediment to manufacturing output that is expected to reduce first-quarter U.S. growth. The coronavirus outbreak that originated in China could hinder a rebound in global manufacturing activity.

In January, manufacturers cut jobs. Meanwhile, industries including construction, health care and transportation and warehousing added jobs at a strong pace.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
Did your pay change this year? How so? Join the conversation below.

Historically low unemployment hasn’t translated into an acceleration in wage growth. Average hourly earnings increased by 7 cents last month to $28.44. Wages were up 3.1% from a year earlier. Pay has grown at an annual pace of 3% or higher for 18 consecutive months.

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Wage growth is one factor that influences Americans’ desire to seek work.

The share of Americans working or looking for work ticked up in January to 63.4% from 63.2% in December. The so-called labor-force participation rate has remained steady in recent years, defying economists’ expectations for the retirement of baby boomers to drag down the rate.

Annual revisions released Friday showed the overall employment level for March 2019 was revised down by 514,000 jobs to 150.28 million. For all of 2019, employers added 2.096 million jobs, a downward revision of 12,000.

More
See the Full Labor Department Report
Keep Up to Date With the WSJ Real Time Economics Calendar
Write to Sarah Chaney at sarah.chaney@wsj.com and Eric Morath at eric.morath@wsj.com

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Thank God Obama was President for 8 years and gifted us this economy.

What a great man. :pimp:
George W, Barack, Trump... all the same Fiscal policy. Low interest rates and quantitative easing.

As long as we keep that petro dollar strong and force oil producing nations to only accept USD, this can keep going for a long time.

Certainly, we are trigger happy to go Crusade on muslim oil producing nations. What's gonna stop the US ? China ?
 
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