OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[antidope]

I don't do much either. but ive been throwing chump change at my works 401k for 5-6 years now . It's not losing money. But it's not gaining too crazy either. 2019 was a bad market year. I think I was up 10% for all of 2020.

I may have my hands into too many indexes. Thoughts?

Sp500 / sp400/ Russell index/ us reit. Percentages have shifted every 2-3 months. Sp500 is doing well. Us reint was doing great precovid. But I'm hopeful the vaccine pushes these places into reopening. Sometimes I'll do 30/20/25/25. Or push it to 40/20/20/20. Or any sort of combo.

Is this chump change better invested in a long term stock that has decent dividends?

Mine is ALL passive just like you. Fee compression is not a joke, its the biggest detractor from returns. My 401k costs me a whopping 0.01% in fees.

Strategy Selection is where we differ. 60% Large Cap Growth/40% S&P 500.

The S&P 500 is about 3% REITs, that's a big bet to be taking on REITs, not saying you're wrong I really don't like giving allocation advice cause it's such a personal thing.

Even if I could access single stock in my 401k I wouldn't this is my "sleep well" money, I don't really tweak it much and its not really a place I would go active. If you have an IRA alongside that then that's a different story.

Which Russell Index? Based on the rest of the sub-asset classes you own, I'm assuming its the Russell 2000 for Small Cap?

 

[アミーゴ]

Agree with the above - my Roth IRA is all over the place and purely growth plays.

I would also suggest throwing money you don’t care about into crypto. Don’t even CHECK on it.

 

[antidope]

Agree with the above - my Roth IRA is all over the place and purely growth plays.

I would also suggest throwing money you don’t care about into crypto. Don’t even CHECK on it.

I was having this conversation earlier, I am still trying to figure out sizing. I was in it before, sold, but I'm not a big hindsight analysis guy that was back when I was really whipping it around.

I'm thinking about a 3% position to start and then go from there. I won't ever look at it or touch it. For me its an allocation to alternatives that I would make if I had money to be in alts like that.

 

[wallyhopp]

Mine is ALL passive just like you. Fee compression is not a joke, its the biggest detractor from returns. My 401k costs me a whopping 0.01% in fees.

Strategy Selection is where we differ. 60% Large Cap Growth/40% S&P 500.

The S&P 500 is about 3% REITs, that's a big bet to be taking on REITs, not saying you're wrong I really don't like giving allocation advice cause it's such a personal thing.

Even if I could access single stock in my 401k I wouldn't this is my "sleep well" money, I don't really tweak it much and its not really a place I would go active. If you have an IRA alongside that then that's a different story.

Which Russell Index? Based on the rest of the sub-asset classes you own, I'm assuming its the Russell 2000 for Small Cap?

My fees are $2/month regardless of $$ invested or choices among many others. I go through Prudential. There's a few bright horizon 2050 funds, but it's mostly index fund choices. My work does not match. So I'm trying to go minimal here with a tax savings, but no true loss if things go bad.

For 3-4 years, it was 50-50 Russell 2000 and sp400. Returns were decent to great.

But right as covid hit, I was actually in the red. I'm glad I stuck with it. Us reit was a late addition. Sp500/sp400/ Russell 2000 have been on a roll the past 10 months.

Overall through 5-6 years in, I think I'm up 15% overall. Those are realistic numbers, right? I know some stocks can hit at 30% gains within a day, so I'm weary of this slow growth 401k.

 

[antidope]

My fees are $2/month regardless of $$ invested or choices among many others. I go through Prudential. There's a few bright horizon 2050 funds, but it's mostly index fund choices. My work does not match. So I'm trying to go minimal here with a tax savings, but no true loss if things go bad.

For 3-4 years, it was 50-50 Russell 2000 and sp400. Returns were decent to great.

But right as covid hit, I was actually in the red. I'm glad I stuck with it. Us reit was a late addition. Sp500/sp400/ Russell 2000 have been on a roll the past 10 months.

Overall through 5-6 years, I think I'm up 15% overall. Those are realistic numbers, right?

Its gonna feel like a cop-out answer but I truly believe this, as long as you're beating inflation you're good. Benchmarking/comparing returns to things is a nonsense game when you're in a wealth-building phase especially.

That being said, something there feels off to me; For the last five years, the S&P alone is up 105.85%, you should be up way more than 15% cumulatively.

 

[shorty doo wop]

Its gonna feel like a cop-out answer but I truly believe this, as long as you're beating inflation you're good. Benchmarking/comparing returns to things is a nonsense game when you're in a wealth-building phase especially.

That being said, something there feels off to me; For the last five years, the S&P alone is up 105.85%, you should be up way more than 15% cumulatively.

I agree main reason I went into investing my money myself is because I knew I could beat my savings account interest as long as I can top 1% a year it’s a win for me

 

[wallyhopp]

Its gonna feel like a cop-out answer but I truly believe this, as long as you're beating inflation you're good. Benchmarking/comparing returns to things is a nonsense game when you're in a wealth-building phase especially.

That being said, something there feels off to me; For the last five years, the S&P alone is up 105.85%, you should be up way more than 15% cumulatively.

Yeah something does seem off. But I've had a mix of percentages for a year plus now.
I did Russell 2000 and sp400 index funds for 2-4 years straight pre covid. Then as covid hit, I've been pushing all four (sp500/sp400/ rus 2000/ us reit). Excluding fees, it appears I'm up 18% (not 15%).

Russell 2000 was down for a year or so, so it may all average out to be right. Us reit is down a decent 10%. I can't stop investing now.

106% growth for five years for sp500 sounds crazy. But for any given time, my sp500 percentage was never above 50%, so it may be on me.

Invest in sp500, 106% gains after 5 YeArs

Invest in a mix and you may get to 18% overall

They say to diversify, right?

 

[216c2a]

Spoiler

thinking ahead to balancing and building out my portfolio for 2021, I'm considering trimming down NVDA a little to create the money to add ABNB in my TOS account. The alternative would be using some of my cash position in Schwab, cutting SQ or TWLO. I'm not inclined to cut TWLO, I think there's legit enterprise potential here as this evolves into a Salesforce type stock and moves beyond just a messaging API/CPaaS company. SQ trades at a very attractive multiple on paper, but when you look at how that revenue growth that's calculated is the result of bitcoin trading which basically adds 0 value to their balance sheet, it makes it seem a little less attractive. Having said that, I love CashApp and the super app potential it has (same theory I have with SoFi) as they introduce more forms of lending and potentially insure tech which I think they should get into. This goes for any new positions moving forward, not just potentially buying ABNB. I really don't want to deploy the bulk of that 5% cash position until we see a serious drawdown in the market. I've also considered trimming some of the adds I had in NVTA eventually, but I view that as potential a $100 stock so any purchase I make with those funds would have to outperform that potential return. Another thing I could do is cut IIPR which has low growth estimates moving forward after being a monster the past couple of years, but I love the potential tailwinds here and dividend so we'll see. I'll probably just have a stop at 170 and let the market pull me out if anything, below there and 157.84 is possible anyway so I can always jump back in if anything. I also wanted to add another dividend stock, but I'm not seeing many options that offer the growth I'd want to see in addition to the dividend, I may add more Apple since that looks great against 131 for a breakout to 150 eventually. Decisions decisions.

This is why I don't trade. My brain would explode

Agree with the above - my Roth IRA is all over the place and purely growth plays.

I would also suggest throwing money you don’t care about into crypto. Don’t even CHECK on it.

Got out of alts 2 years ago and focused solely on bitcoin. Invested under the premise that one day a bitcoin would be 50k. That day seems to be arriving sooner than expected and based on where I'm at now, I'm not sure if I'd even sell any at 50k. First world problems

 

[antidope]

Yeah something does seem off. But I've had a mix of percentages for a year plus now.
I did Russell 2000 and sp400 index funds for 2-4 years straight pre covid. Then as covid hit, I've been pushing all four (sp500/sp400/ rus 2000/ us reit). Excluding fees, it appears I'm up 18% (not 15%).

Russell 2000 was down for a year or so, so it may all average out to be right. Us reit is down a decent 10%. I can't stop investing now.

106% growth for five years for sp500 sounds crazy. But for any given time, my sp500 percentage was never above 50%, so it may be on me.

Invest in sp500, 106% gains after 5 YeArs

Invest in a mix and you may get to 18% overall

They say to diversify, right?

Yeah man you're doing it the right way by the science of it all. Should really spread the risk around as you're doing.

 

[アミーゴ]

Don’t even look at it and just DCA my man. 216c2a

 

[degenerate423]

Satellite is the way to go. Grab an index and a couple of mutual funds that cover what isn’t in the index or weighted heavily.


Drone companies that aren’t covered by analysts, any ideas? It’s not AMBA. I know EWD Technologies is a good candidate, but aside from them?

UAVS was supposed to be partnering with AMZN, but I don’t know if that ever amounted to anything. Plus, it’s a penny stock.

 

[jjs]

When I was at the VC EWD came down to Santa Monica and I helped him with the storytelling of his pitch deck - can’t even @ him on here now

but did you give him seed money?

 

[アミーゴ]

but did you give him seed money?

No but DCAllAfrican did

 

[cs02132]

Man

Just went on r/Wallstreetbets for the first time. Those dudes are wild
My dads a super risk adverse econ professor and he helped me set up some “buy and forget” mutual funds in oct 2017. Since then I’m up almost 40% and 13% YOY. And those dudes on Reddit are still giving me FOMO

wish I rode the Tesla wave
But I guess I’ll take what I have and be content with it

 

[アミーゴ]

cs02132 from a health perspective don’t be, I’ve been to the doctor 3x for heart palpitations (and I run 3-5x a week) - at this point I should just send the bill to Elon

 

[noskey]

Man

Just went on r/Wallstreetbets for the first time. Those dudes are wild
My dads a super risk adverse econ professor and he helped me set up some “buy and forget” mutual funds in oct 2017. Since then I’m up almost 40% and 13% YOY. And those dudes on Reddit are still giving me FOMO

wish I rode the Tesla wave
But I guess I’ll take what I have and be content with it

Dont FOMO with Tesla. Elon giveth, and Elon taketh. The winners definitely get more attention on there but believe me, as someone that's lurked that place for years people have been RUINED by Tesla before the wild run of the past year. Browse and enjoy but remember it's all luck. johnnyredstorm can also definitely can vouch for how ****ing stupid that sub is I know he lurks that **** too.

 

[ballinsam23]

I think if I had a 401k id be at a 95% total stock market index fund, 2.5% bonds and 2.5% reits. Wouldn’t have the patience for any other less risky allocation

 

[jrp44]

WSB is pure ****ing entertainment

 

[cs02132]

To be real though the one stock I missed out on was Shopify. Actually believed in the company and wanted to buy in late 2019-early 2020, just never did

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Do you think Shopify is done and won’t continue to grow? You know Amazon was a $100 billion market cap at one point...

WSB is a dumpster fire. I went on there in the beginning of the pandemic when we made a higher low and had a post saying I think I’m going to buy 290 calls when soy was at 285 and they all roasted me because soy was going to go back to 200. Well, those idiots ****ing suck.Laugh at their stupidity and use it as a place to get a feel for what dumb money is doing.

 

[アミーゴ]

All those bums are on RH

 

[CrownRoyalDaddy]

Ive muffed multiple trades on penny stocks and some others in general the last couple weeks. Selling right before the explode to free up cash smfh SNDL, ZOM, NIO

 

[SplinterMatic319]

I read somewhere that Tesla is so overvalued rn that’s it equivalent to Apple being valued at $90T

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Ive muffed multiple trades on penny stocks and some others in general the last couple weeks. Selling right before the explode to free up cash smfh SNDL, ZOM, NIO

bruh I've made great money never touching penny stocks, I want you to realize, you dont need to trade that junk. if you wanted to have like 1-5% of your trading there as a lotto the way you would be on sports, ok, but you need to be trading the best stocks to create sustainable wealth.

Bakkt investor presentation VIH is the SPAC. I'm intrigued

EX-99.2

AR ads plus Snap Events, I really like what they're doing here. Good innovation for SNAP

#018 PATENT DROP

Snapchat's events play, Microsoft's collaboration scores, and Visa's prediction platform

patentdrop.substack.com

 

[CrownRoyalDaddy]

bruh I've made great money never touching penny stocks, I want you to realize, you dont need to trade that junk. if you wanted to have like 1-5% of your trading there as a lotto the way you would be on sports, ok, but you need to be trading the best stocks to create sustainable wealth.

Bakkt investor presentation VIH is the SPAC. I'm intrigued

EX-99.2

AR ads plus Snap Events, I really like what they're doing here. Good innovation for SNAP

#018 PATENT DROP

Snapchat's events play, Microsoft's collaboration scores, and Visa's prediction platform

patentdrop.substack.com

Yea i dont mess with many i just drop a rack or two and try to catch these jumps day by day. I dont day trade any of my core (TSLA, ROKU, NNDM, starting ARKG until a decide a specific genomic company). I just add to those