OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

“Capitalism: God’s way of determining who is smart and who is poor.”

- Ron Swanson

 
antidope said:
I have my CFA charter and idk anything about how to truly invest and what I've doing is tantamount to just throwing darts at a board.

Everyone just BUY SPY and call it a day, SPY is undefeated.
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Its tough man. Market is run by quants and algos now. You need advanced degrees in mathematics to truly understand things. I remember when I first started, CNBC was live on the NYSE trading floor with all the traders everyday. That doesnt even exist anymore, everythings done with computer programs now.

I recently learned VOO is superior to SPY over the long term cause it has better management fees.
 
frankmatthews said:
Its tough man. Market is run by quants and algos now. You need advanced degrees in mathematics to truly understand things. I remember when I first started, CNBC was live on the NYSE trading floor with all the traders everyday. That doesnt even exist anymore, everythings done with computer programs now.

I recently learned VOO is superior to SPY over the long term cause it has better management fees.
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Totally agree. The whole thing is gamified and this is why active management is totally garbage.

I totally forgot about VOO. At work we pretty much use SPY exclusively due to the tighter tracking error and higher volume. For the retail investor those things are irrelevant and fees should be the number one factor.

Fees are the biggest detector to returns point blank. I feel like the no commissions wave has had a negative impact on retail. When there was commissions any trade you made you started down when you factored in commissions and you lost on the way out. It created more hesitancy. Now people just whip it around cause they can.
 
Do you truly believe that inflation is indeed an issue given where we are? Fed has stated that inflation is transitory in which I do agree to some extent. Supply chain issues will eventually ease IMO. You raise rates too fast and you risk sending our economy into a recession.
gvhp2223 said:
You have to have foundational knowledge about interest rates. Most people on here have no idea how significant interest rates are. They'll say that the difference between a 0 % fed funds rate and 3% fed funds rate "is only 3 percent." These are the same type of people who will defend koBrick bryant's 40% shooting percentage in big games and say "the difference between 40% shooting and 50% shooting is only 10%."

Most people don't understand percentages to begin with.

If you don't understand percentages, you're not going to understand interest rates.

If you don't understand interest rates, you're not going to understand inflation.

If you don't understand inflation, you're not going to understand real interest rates.

If you don't understand real interest rates, you're not going to understand how dangerous the current economic situation is.


I can't teach you guys all of that stuff. It takes weeks or months to read about each aspect. It takes months or years to grasp each concept because you have to wait for it to unfold in real life to actually understand it. It's a lot easier for me to say "be careful listening to this guy, he doesn't know what he's talking about."

Right now, mortgage rates are 4%. If the Fed has the balls to fight inflation and they raise the fed funds rate to 3% like they need to, mortgages will be 6-7%. Watch what happens to real estate if that happens. A million dollar property will drop to 700k.
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gvhp2223 said:
Right now, mortgage rates are 4%. If the Fed has the balls to fight inflation and they raise the fed funds rate to 3% like they need to, mortgages will be 6-7%. Watch what happens to real estate if that happens. A million dollar property will drop to 700k.
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Water is wet 🥴
 
gvhp2223 said:
That's exactly how I feel.

You have to have foundational knowledge about interest rates. Most people on here have no idea how significant interest rates are. They'll say that the difference between a 0 % fed funds rate and 3% fed funds rate "is only 3 percent." These are the same type of people who will defend koBrick bryant's 40% shooting percentage in big games and say "the difference between 40% shooting and 50% shooting is only 10%."

Most people don't understand percentages to begin with.

If you don't understand percentages, you're not going to understand interest rates.

If you don't understand interest rates, you're not going to understand inflation.

If you don't understand inflation, you're not going to understand real interest rates.

If you don't understand real interest rates, you're not going to understand how dangerous the current economic situation is.


I can't teach you guys all of that stuff. It takes weeks or months to read about each aspect. It takes months or years to grasp each concept because you have to wait for it to unfold in real life to actually understand it. It's a lot easier for me to say "be careful listening to this guy, he doesn't know what he's talking about."

Right now, mortgage rates are 4%. If the Fed has the balls to fight inflation and they raise the fed funds rate to 3% like they need to, mortgages will be 6-7%. Watch what happens to real estate if that happens. A million dollar property will drop to 700k.
Click to expand...


How do we get you nominated as the next Fed chair?
 
bangdak said:
Do you truly believe that inflation is indeed an issue given where we are? Fed has stated that inflation is transitory in which I do agree to some extent. Supply chain issues will eventually ease IMO. You raise rates too fast and you risk sending our economy into a recession.
Click to expand...

It doesn't matter what the Fed says. I said this earlier in this thread: Powell spend 8-12 months insisting that inflation is transitory. After he got re-appointed to a 4-year term, he came out within 8-12 days and said that it's time to retire the term "transitory" when talking about inflation. He knew all along that it wasn't transitory, he just didn't want to mention anything about raising rates because it would jeopardize him getting re-appointed.

People don't really understand inflation. You say that sending the economy into recession is a risk. What is at risk? Recessions are needed, they're a part of the economic cycle. The pace of inflation is far, far more of a risk to the economy than a recession is. At this point, a recession isn't a problem, it's a solution.

Don't listen to the clowns at the Fed, they have ulterior motives. Listen to a guy like Mohamed El-Erian.
 
The past Fed under Alan Greenspan thought recessions were a solution. Thank goodness he is no longer in charge.

This Fed is more focused on full employment under Jerome Powell. Not only that, they understand that they can disconnect the stock market from the economy through asset purchases. Interesting times.
 
ecook0808 said:
Everyone is leaving GS be careful
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David Solomon is a maniac. All that "You're not people you're commodities" rhetoric isn't the move. It's the first time in a long time that Goldman is losing footing in the desirability space and he's choosing to double down on the nonsense
 
GS paid ridiculous bonuses last year, but historically they’ve underpaid folks. It’s a great brand for moving to other firms or out of the industry but not the place to be a career banker.
 
usabasketball08 said:
GS paid ridiculous bonuses last year, but historically they’ve underpaid folks. Great brand for moving to other firms or out of the industry though but not the place to be a career banker.
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"The Goldman brand is a part of your compensation"
 
Watched an interview with John Paulson last night on bloomberg. If you dont remember him, hes the guy that made $20 billion shorting MBS back in 2007. Largest known payout on a single trade. He basically said the fed is wrong and at this point his portfolio is positioned to take advantage of higher than expected inflation and rising interest rates. Was a great interview with a lot of good advice.

 
antidope said:
David Solomon is a maniac. All that "You're not people you're commodities" rhetoric isn't the move. It's the first time in a long time that Goldman is losing footing in the desirability space and he's choosing to double down on the nonsense
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I mean he’s just saying what every org thinks - these spots don’t love the middle manager/lower folks
 
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