QB THREAD - 2x quarterbacky award winner: Lamar Jackson

[mister friendly]

Again Andrew Luck career 2.5 int pct is the same as the 2014 league average and every other elite quarterback of this era has better int numbers.

If you want compare his numbers to dudes who played 30 years ago when the int pct was 4.5 ...fine but don't be mad when somebody says Russell Wilson fastest to this many passing touchdowns, Stafford 2011?=1984 Marino or 2013 Foles=1994 Young.

 

[CP1708]

I haven’t had the time today to truly get in deep (believe it or not) I keep getting interrupted. So I’ve just been posting quick thoughts and then checking out, then popping back in, etc.

But, there is another, deeper, layer of data that I do not have, that someday I hope to get and sit thru, but it would take a lot of time, and no real job.

And that’s Interceptable passes.

Just as I say all INT’s are not the same, not all passes, or completions, or incompletions are either. You have drops. Or misses. Or throwaways.

Tannehill week one thru a ball literally in the numbers of the defender, and he must have bad hands, and it not only bounced off him, a Dolphin receiver caught it, and gained 10-12 yards.

You have Luck get hit while throwing, and the ball flutters and is picked, and you have Tanne in a clean pocket deliver a strike, right into a defender.


Here’s the thing. Even with All 22, and all the video watching you wanna do, you can’t always, 100% nail someone. Maybe Tanne threw the ball to the right spot, but the receiver was in the wrong route.
Luck’s INT to Revis while being hit, maybe he was throwing somewhere else on the field, the ball just fluttered to Revis, in Dorsett’s direction. The first one he threw, was that to Andre, or was that to Allen? None of us know, only the QB/coaches actually know.

Anyhoo, I know some guys that have worked on charting actual throws, every single one, and they actually adjust stats. Throws to a receiver on the money near the goal line that they drop, they give the QB a TD. Throws that go right to the CB, but he drops, they call those INT’s.
You throw 37 passes in a game, but one of them is a spike, and the other is in the 9th row of the bleachers to prevent a sack, they chart you down as 35 attempts.

Next level stats and charting. Truly advanced metrics.

But again, a lot of those metrics are still guesswork by a guy (or guys) that don’t really know 100% where the routes were, or where a throw while being hit might have been going, etc. So it’s a closer look than just run of the mill stat totals the NFL has used since the 1930’s, but there’s still pieces of data that are filled in on a guess work basis.

On those type of things, I suspect Andrew has had some actual Luck avoiding a few extra INT’s. Thing is, sometimes those balance out, like say when Haloti Ngata intercepts a pass that hits a lineman in the helmet. To me, a bad break like that balances out the drop by a CB. Not a perfect science of course, but a little deeper glimpse into what happenes in a game.

 

[CP1708]

and every other elite quarterback of this era has better int numbers.

This is not true.

 

[dland24]

Again Andrew Luck career 2.5 int pct is the same as the 2014 league average and every other elite quarterback of this era has better int numbers.

How many of the other elite QBs of this era have played with a terrible defense or one of the worst running games in recent history?  Now how many of those other elite QBs have played with both?

 

[mister friendly]

The Colts defense is not terrible, they are average.

The running game has been below average but in 2013 it was actually average in terms of yards per attempt and expected points added.

We can complain about what Andrew Luck has or doesn't have or we can focus on what the best player on the team can do better.

It almost reminds me of the old Lebron arguments, at least that dude had MVPs.

 

[100027]

How many of the other elite QBs of this era have played with a terrible defense or one of the worst running games in recent history?  Now how many of those other elite QBs have played with both?

The Colts don't have a terrible defense. But actually a number of elite QBs have, for periods of time. Peyton played with a bad defense and mediocre running game, so did Rodgers. So has Brees. So did Stafford when he put up great stats. Etc.

 

[rolaholic]

TB led the 32nd ranked secondary and one of the worst overall ranked units to the SB a few years back so it has been done...

 

[statis22]

* @CP1708
thinks that because Luck plays with a terrible defense and a non existent running game, his turnover number is excusable because he doesn't have the supporting cast to help him

I have no dog in this fight but I think this plays into @SneakerPro pount as to why is this acceptable reasoning as it relates to Luck when we all know we wouldn't give certain QBs that kind of rope?

 

[100027]

TB led the 32nd ranked secondary and one of the worst overall ranked units to the SB a few years back so it has been done...

Surprised I didn't think of that one.

It's basically the exact same thing as the old LeBron argument.  X has clear potential for greatness + X has a poor supporting cast= X's flaws are solely a result of his supporting cast/ X does not have flaws.

But of course we all know that wasn't the case with LeBron on Cleveland—actually being with a better supporting cast made him a better player and helped him to improve on the flaws he had on Cleveland.

In addition, the assumption that a worse defense and running game means better stats needs to be examined.  Because there are many counter-examples that show a bad defense and running game actually inflates QB stats.   Many quarterbacks have had their best years statistically when they had the ball in their hands and had to throw to keep up, though this doesn't always equate to winning.

 

[dmxfury]

Ben's defense this year

Last few years

 

[100027]

Ben's defense this year

Great example of that.  Ben's probably been "elite" from a talent perspective for years, but we only have begun to recognize him as statistically elite when his defense fell off a cliff the last 3 seasons.

 

[DeadsetAce]

if we're talking about INTs specifically, a **** defense isn't really a good excuse. and i don't think that's the point CP is making. it's more that between no offensive line, running game, and a below avg defense (debatable, i know)...the colts can't be as patient or methodical on offense because they'll end up in a hole fairly quickly.

 

[CP1708]

Yes, thank you DSA. I don't worry or focus on the def in this instance. (Turnover specific)

And MF just made a point.......2013 Run game was average........and Luck had only 9 picks that year.......

 

[CP1708]

It's basically the exact same thing as the old LeBron argument. X has clear potential for greatness + X has a poor supporting cast= X's flaws are solely a result of his supporting cast/ X does not have flaws.

But of course we all know that wasn't the case with LeBron on Cleveland—actually being with a better supporting cast made him a better player and helped him to improve on the flaws he had on Cleveland.

In addition, the assumption that a worse defense and running game means better stats needs to be examined. Because there are many counter-examples that show a bad defense and running game actually inflates QB stats. Many quarterbacks have had their best years statistically when they had the ball in their hands and had to throw to keep up, though this doesn't always equate to winning.

Valid points, tho we know that Bron playing both sides of the ball and having more overall control and impact is a bit diff than Luck, but the "Next" moniker def works for both cases.

What about Rodgers? He could sort of slot into that scenario you point out. Rodgers with a better Def, and a better RB in Lacy has seen his percentages go up, not necessarily his totals. Damn, his 2011 season was ridiculous.......68%, 45 TD, 6 INT, 122 rating, 4,600 yards on just 500 attempts, in 15 games........My God. :x

Check that I guess, his numbers are just great every which way, supporting cast or not.

 

[100027]

68%, 45 TD, 6 INT, 122 rating, 4,600 yards on just 500 attempts, in 15 games.

 

[CP1708]

yup

One of these days, I'm going to find seasons like that for each guy, and put them together.

Marino 84, Rodgers 2011, the Peyton 49, Brady 50 years, Stafford's 3rd year and just see what they all look like next to each other. Maybe I'll hit that up tonight if I get time.

 

[Chester McFloppy]

1994 Young
1996 Favre
1999 Warner
2004 Peyton
2006 Vick
2010 Brady
2011 Rodgers

The best QB years I've ever seen off the top of my head. Some guys have multiple years but these are my favs.

 

[mister friendly]

The difference in the Colts rushing attack from 2013 to 2014 was Andrew Luck was better running with the Football in 2013.

377 yards vs 273 on basically the same amount of carries.

 

[CP1708]

Just at a cursory glance, I wanted to check on some things, kind of match up with some of what MF has been thinkin.

I've pointed out the 50 games, 48 INT's. Basically one a game. But that isn't the case really.

For instance, Luck's rookie year, he threw 3 INT's his first game.

So, I went thru them all.

Rookie year, 16 games, 18 INT's, but 13 of them came in FIVE (!!!!!!!!) games! That means that as a rookie, he had 11 games totaling just 5 INT's.
Year 2, 16 games, 9 INT's, and 3 of them came in one game. That leaves 15 games, with just 6 INT's.
Year 3, 16 games, 16 INT's, and 10 of them came in 5 games. That leaves 11 games, with just 6 INT's.


That's a total of 37 games, with 17 INT's.
The other 11 games, he has 26. (4 3 INT games, and 7 2 INT games) (also, add 1 3 and 1 2 already this year)


Basically, that tells me they come in bushels for him. 37 games, and just 17 INT's is hardly the need to take better care of the ball.

The 11 games are his biggest culprits, and those include 3 3 INT games his rookie year. That rookie year alone inflates his INT totals.


The first 3 multi INT games of his career, they were blown out. Badly.
The next 2, they won both games.

The 2nd year, they were blown out in his 3 INT game.

Year 3, they were blown out twice, and lost one close one, and won 2 of his multi INT games.

The Bears, the Jets, the Patriots, the Lions, the Titans are the rookie year multi INT games.,
The Rams were year 2.
Broncos, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Cowboys year 3.

And of course, Bills and Jets so far this year.


So again, 50 games, 48 INT's, and the majority of them coming in just a handful of games.



37 games with just 17 INT's total. And the majority of his multi INT games come during blow outs.

To me, that don't sound like a guy that has ball control issues. Those are factors going on that contribute to a few forced throws, and a couple catch up to him. Otherwise, the majority of his work, he takes very good care of the football.

 

[rolaholic]

2010 Vick is lowkey up there for me because it was basically what would happen if he threw the ball as well as he could run it. As much of an anomaly as it was,it's one of the most memorable QB seasons to me not by any historic respect though

 

[Chester McFloppy]

2010 Vick is lowkey up there for me because it was basically what would happen if he threw the ball as well as he could run it. As much of an anomaly as it was,it's one of the most memorable QB seasons to me not by any historic respect though

2009 Favre, too. 33 TDs to 7 picks for the 40 year old gunslinger? Where the hell did that come from?!

 

[rolaholic]

Agreed,I expected Favre in Minny to be good but not half as good as he really was that first season . At 40 :x. Still feel they should've won the SB that year if it wasn't for that bounty on his head in the NFC title game

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

View media item 1725669

 

[651akathepaul]

I'm intrigued to see Kaepernick this Sunday and going forward. He really has looked different -- better. Everyone should throw the ball all around on Pittsburgh, but he did what he should have done. Arizona will be a unique test.

Also excited to continue to see Teddy play. Week 1 was just weird and really feel like it was an aberration. His play uncharacteristic of him and he just looked way too excited. Last week he was in total control despite the pressure he faced and his wheels have been an added bonus.

 

[651akathepaul]

2010 Vick is lowkey up there for me because it was basically what would happen if he threw the ball as well as he could run it. As much of an anomaly as it was,it's one of the most memorable QB seasons to me not by any historic respect though

2009 Favre, too. 33 TDs to 7 picks for the 40 year old gunslinger? Where the hell did that come from?!

I don't know, but it was so much fun to watch. I hate how it ended and that it had to end at all.

 

[rolaholic]

Some Favre magic from that season