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Braden
The Major League Baseball Post
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by wildkycat,
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You don't need to consult the Department of Justice to know it's criminal the way Felix Hernandez's hitters have "supported" him in Seattle this year.
Hernandez
And Cliff Lee, Johan Santana and Cole Hamels could press those very same charges.
I can vouch for that because, a couple of years ago, I invented my own stat to measure this "crime" -- the Criminally Unsupported Start. The idea was this: Rather than look at run-support numbers, which can be skewed by a big game or two, I wanted to find a way to measure how many times a year a pitcher does his job only to be abandoned by his offense. Hence, the CUS was born. Here's how it works: Every time a starting pitcher stays out there for at least six innings but gets either one run or none scored for him while he's in the game, that's a Criminally Unsupported Start. It's kind of the companion stat to the quality start. And it's fascinating to look at the records these men -- the most unsupported pitchers alive -- might have if they got a win out of every CUS they made. But don't take my word for it. See for yourself. Here are the CUS leaders in each league, through Sunday. And for amusement purposes only, I'll list their actual records alongside their might-have-been records if they won every time they racked up a CUS:
[h4]American League[/h4]
* -- Record if pitcher got credit for a win in every CUS
[table][tr][th=""]PITCHER[/th][th=""]CUS[/th][th=""]ACTUAL W-L[/th][th=""]POSSIBLE W-L*[/th][/tr][tr][td]Felix Hernandez[/td][td]10[/td][td]8-10[/td][td]19-3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cliff Lee[/td][td]8[/td][td]10-5[/td][td]17-1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Zack Greinke[/td][td]7[/td][td]7-11[/td][td]14-5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeremy Guthrie[/td][td]7[/td][td]7-11[/td][td]14-5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ben Sheets[/td][td]7[/td][td]4-9[/td][td]8-4[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]National League[/h4]
* -- Record if pitcher got credit for a win in every CUS
[table][tr][th=""]PITCHER[/th][th=""]CUS[/th][th=""]ACTUAL W-L[/th][th=""]POSSIBLE W-L*[/th][/tr][tr][td]Cole Hamels[/td][td]10[/td][td]7-9[/td][td]16-4[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johan Santana[/td][td]9[/td][td]10-6[/td][td]18-3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Roy Oswalt[/td][td]8[/td][td]7-13[/td][td]15-6[/td][/tr][tr][td]Barry Zito[/td][td]8[/td][td]8-6[/td][td]14-4[/td][/tr][tr][td]Hiroki Kuroda[/td][td]8[/td][td]8-11[/td][td]16-4[/td][/tr][/table]
So if any of these men want to sue their lineups for lack of support, they can call me as a witness. I have the numbers to prove their case in about 30 seconds.
Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
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Wins and losses are dumb, I think most modern baseball fans understand that.
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yo anybdy have keith law's review of the draft? it's insider
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Derek Lee about to be shipped to Atlanta
With the signing deadline past us, here's a rundown of the draft classes for the 14 AL teams, with a quick note on winners at the end. I'll review the NL tomorrow.
[h3]Baltimore Orioles[/h3]
The Orioles get their key guys signed, led by their first pick, shortstop Manny Machado, who immediately becomes the best prospect in their system and, they hope, the shortstop solution they've lacked for years. Beyond that, they only topped $500,000 for two prospects, including Parker Bridwell, a projectable right-handed pitcher who starred in basketball in high school and had a fairly slow ramp-up this spring after going directly from the court to the mound. Their only major unsigned pick is sixth-rounder Dixon Anderson of Cal, who had first-round buzz after fall ball last year but didn't follow it up with a strong performance this spring.
[h3]Boston Red Sox[/h3]
They spent high, and they spent low, signing their best player, Anthony Ranaudo, to one of the 10 highest bonuses in the draft, while landing several tough-sign high school kids with stout bonuses, including roughly $1.3 million apiece to Sean Coyle and Garin Cecchini. Coyle's one of the better pure hitters from this past draft class but slipped on a UNC commitment and the fact that he's 5-foot-8 and limited to second base. Cecchini probably goes in the top 50 picks if he doesn't blow out his ACL in March. Landing Brandon Workman for $800,000 in the second round is a small steal -- I thought he was a first-round talent -- while I doubt Boston made any friends at LSU by signing corner outfielder Lucas Leblanc, an LSU commit like Cecchini. The Red Sox didn't have any major unsigned players; Eric Jaffe had a strong commitment to Cal and Adam Duke didn't throw that well over the summer after he was drafted.
[h3]New York Yankees[/h3]
The Yankees spent, but avoided high-dollar guys in favor of spreading the money around. They only topped a million dollars on one player, fourth-rounder Mason Williams, the son of former New England Patriot Derwin Williams; Mason is a slight, 6-foot-1 outfielder with a fairly simple swing and above-average speed, but he lacks power and is raw enough that he wasn't a consideration in the first round for clubs. I'm still surprised that the Yanks didn't go for more ceiling, without a single player in this draft who was seen as a first-rounder by the industry; they added some nice talent like Ben Gamel (Mat's brother, an undersized corner outfielder with a great left-handed swing but limited power potential) and Taylor Morton (a converted catcher who'll touch 94), but there's no impact guy here. I have to wonder if ownership isn't opening the wallets enough for their amateur scouting staff.
[h3]Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
It came down to the wire, but they signed almost all of their top picks, including slugger Josh Sale and sweet-swinging (and, yes, switch-pitching) outfielder Drew Vettleson. Fourth-rounder Austin Wood will take his one pitch to Southern Cal and try again in next year's draft. Seventh-rounder Michael Lorenzen was a tough sign all along, and I think he'll be a high pick in 2013, but was risky enough that it didn't make sense to pay him like a first-round pick today. Sale and catcher Justin O'Conner give them two potential impact position players, while Vettleson and Derek Dietrich add to their overall prospect depth. Late signing Jesse Hahn, recovering from Tommy John surgery but up to 95 when healthy, was a nice bargain at $525,000, roughly half of what he would have gotten if healthy.
[h3]Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
Alex Anthopoulos said they'd spend, and spend they did -- over $10 million in total as far as I can tell. They added a ton of depth, especially in high school players, to a system that was thin overall and very light on teenaged pitching. Aaron Sanchez and Griffin Murphy, both prep arms from California, were among my favorites in this draft, and their combined bonuses only added up to a mid-first-round pick. Third baseman Chris Hawkins has a pretty good feel for the strike zone for an 18-year-old (he turns 19 Tuesday) and signed for a bargain $350K. The one flaw in this draft class is the lack of ceiling; they went over $1 million twice, once on Deck McGuire, a high-probability starter who probably maxes out as a number three, and once on Dickie Thon, Jr., a good athlete who probably moves off shortstop and has a long way to go with the bat.
[h3]Chicago White Sox[/h3]
The White Sox just don't spend in the draft; it's an ownership issue, not on the scouting staff, but the resulting draft classes always lack upside as a result. They took two guys from my top 100, both arm strength guys, Chris Sale and Jacob Petricka. Sale's in the majors now as a reliever, and most scouts I've polled agree with my take that his future is in the 'pen. Petricka had one of the best pure fastballs in this draft and has a chance to start if the curveball becomes more consistent as opposed to just flashing solid-average. They didn't spend more than $400,000 on any other picks.
[h3]Cleveland Indians[/h3]
Cleveland spent more than $8.5 million, giving out seven-figure bonuses to four players, including first-rounder Drew Pomeranz, the top college pitcher in this draft when you consider health and track record, although others (Anthony Ranaudo, Matt Harvey) offer more upside with greater risk. Levon Washington is their best upside play; if they can fix the shoulder to the point where he can return to center field, his bat has a chance to make him an above-average player ... but he has to show a better work ethic than he had this spring at Chipola. The million-dollar bonuses for Alex Lavisky and Tony Wolters both shocked the industry. Best bargain is Robbie Aviles, headed for a second- or third-round bonus before blowing out his elbow right before the draft; he signed for $150,000.
[h3]Detroit Tigers[/h3]
No first-round pick? No problem. Nick Castellanos gets the fifth-highest bonus in the draft to buy him away from Miami, a good job by the Tigers in creating a first-round pick from a selection in the sandwich round. They also gave first-round money to Drew Smyly, a fastball/cutter/changeup starter from Arkansas who was a redshirt sophomore; and Chance Ruffin, a future closer from Texas with the type of power arm scouting director David Chadd likes. They didn't sign fourth-rounder Cole Green, also of Texas, a sinkerballer who throws strikes but lacks an out pitch; or Notre Dame right-hander Brian Dupra, who touched 95 on the Cape last summer as a reliever but had a horrible spring for the Irish.
[h3]Kansas City Royals[/h3]
Another tremendous draft for the Royals under Dayton Moore; as much as I've criticized his management of the big league roster, he has overseen a massive turnaround in his farm system, which is now bursting with prospects of all sorts. Christian Colon is out playing already and could start 2011 in Double-A because of the extra reps he got this year; he's their shortstop of the future once his bat is ready. They gave first-round dollars to Brett Eibner, a CF/RHP from Arkansas who projects as an above-average (or better) glove in center and has raw power but struggles with pitch recognition. They also landed Jason Adam, a local prep pitcher who forgoes a scholarship to Missouri; he has a workhorse build and already works in the low 90s, but needs help with his delivery that will come in a strong player development system. They signed everyone they needed to sign.
[h3]Minnesota Twins[/h3]
The Twins, like the White Sox, spent almost nothing in this year's draft, with only one bonus over $550,000. Alex Wimmers is a classic Twins pick -- a strike-throwing college pitcher with good feel for two secondary pitches but without the sexy fastball of most first-round arms. Second-rounder Nico Goodrum is athletic with a loose body; he's headed for center field and has a long way to go with pitch recognition after facing weak pitching in high school. Two potential bargains: Pat Dean, a lefty from BC who struggled with shoulder soreness and overuse this spring but has worked in the low 90s in the past; and Dallas Gallant, a right-hander from Sam Houston State who was up to 92 last summer on the Cape with a wipeout slider but lost his velocity and command when he went back to school.
[h3]Los Angeles Angels[/h3]
The Angels loaded up on high school talent, starting with third baseman Kaleb Cowart, who signed for an over-slot bonus of $2.3 million on deadline day. Cam Bedrosian had one of the best curveballs among high school arms in this draft, and Chevez Clarke had a pretty advanced bat last summer but had an up-and-down spring on a bad high school team. Taylor Lindsey had one of my favorite swings in this draft but needs to show he can stay at second base. Their second and third days didn't yield much, with two unsigned guys standing out in prep righty Jesus Valdez and hard-throwing lefty Josh Osich, who'll return to Oregon State after recovering from Tommy John surgery; the Angels did spend over $6 million on Day 1 and may have maxed out their budget.
[h3]Oakland Athletics[/h3]
The A's plowed some extra coin into their second pick, Yordy Cabrera, who had first-round potential but some questions about his age (he's at least 19) and ability to hit better pitching; with first-rounder Michael Choice already in the fold, they could stomach the added risk of Cabrera, who has a plus arm and the raw power to profile at third base. Aaron Shipman is an athletic center fielder with an above-average arm, and Chad Lewis is a high-probability hitter who'll stick at third base and has a chance to hit for power if he gets his lower half involved more. They took a few tough signs late, including UNC commit Andrew Smith and Texas A&M commit Krey Bratsen, but spent almost nothing after Lewis in the fourth round.
[h3]Seattle Mariners[/h3]
Seattle didn't have a first-round pick and ended up without a million-dollar player, although they took one player I rated as a first-rounder in Marcus Littlewood, giving him $900K; he's a sure-handed shortstop who might outgrow the position and end up at third base, but he has the hands and arm to be above-average or better at short if he can stay there, and he's a switch-hitter with surprising pop. He's the best prospect in their draft. First pick Taijuan Walker signed quickly because he lacked a college commitment; he's a basketball guy who came into big velocity on the mound this spring but is a more athletic thrower than pitcher. They gave lefty Jordan Shipers the same $800K they gave Walker and signed two hard-throwing relievers earlier this summer in Stephen Pryor and slider specialist Tyler Burgoon, spending a total of less than $300K on both of them. The top unsigned player by any club after the first round was the Mariners' third-round pick, right-hander Ryne Stanek, who stuck to a high bonus demand and will now head to Arkansas. The Mariners still control the rights to lefty James Paxton until a week before next year's draft; look for him to sign in the spring as Josh Fields did two years ago.
[h3]Texas Rangers[/h3]
The Rangers spent a little more than $7 million total -- not that high considering their three extra picks in the top 50 -- but signed all their selections through 17 rounds. They mixed bats and arms, mostly high school but with a few college picks, for a balanced draft overall that has a little upside in football star Jake Skole and hard-hitting catcher Kellin Deglan, as well as pop-up right-hander Luke Jackson, who has touched 96 and has a fluid delivery that he repeats well. I wasn't a fan of sandwich pick Mike Olt, but Nick Tepesch and Justin Grimm are two power arms who had first-round buzz earlier in their college careers but fell after disappointing summers and springs leading into this draft.
[h3]Winners[/h3]
Boston spent the cash, but spent it wisely too, with a strong mix of high-upside picks and some higher-probability guys to balance out the class and provide more trade fodder for Theo Epstein. Tampa Bay continues to add impact prospects with a few calculated risks and the minor steal of Justin O'Conner at the end of the first round. I wish Toronto had swung for the fences on one guy rather than spreading its money out so much, but it's a solid haul overall that adds depth to its low minors and gives it the chance to develop young pitchers who were simply not allowed into the organization under Anthopoulos' predecessor. And both Kansas City and the Angels added a lot of talent in a few expensive picks near the tops of their drafts.
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Brad Lidge strikes again. Plunks Ludwick with 2 outs on an 0-2 pitch to load the bases.....then balks the tying run in with 2 strikes against Headley.
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I've wanted to bump this thread with some random occurrence so many times in the past month or so, but it just seemed eternally dead. I can't pass this one up, though.
Remember when Torii Hunter got thrown out trying to steal third in the 9th inning when he was the tying run? Well, he just did it again... kind of.
Runners on first and second (Hunter), nobody out, Angels down 6-1 in the bottom of the 7th... he's out by five feet trying to steal third. And no, it wasn't a double steal call. Two consecutive outs follow, rally no longer.
For all you Nyjer Morgan apologists out there, that's why we don't do that.
Remember when Torii Hunter got thrown out trying to steal third in the 9th inning when he was the tying run? Well, he just did it again... kind of.
Runners on first and second (Hunter), nobody out, Angels down 6-1 in the bottom of the 7th... he's out by five feet trying to steal third. And no, it wasn't a double steal call. Two consecutive outs follow, rally no longer.
For all you Nyjer Morgan apologists out there, that's why we don't do that.
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Seriously?
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Go...
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...Tribe.
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@#@##% Cliff Lee and the funk he's put the Rangers in...