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Can't wait to see the NT mock draft
The NBA Draft Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by pmatic,
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This is part of what I was saying about knee jerk trading okafor away. It better be a good trade
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Scouting Buddy Hield, the NBA draft’s best shooter
http://www.si.com/nba/2016/06/17/buddy-hield-nba-draft-scouting-report
http://www.si.com/nba/2016/06/17/buddy-hield-nba-draft-scouting-report
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I'd trade Okafor for Dunn only, not Murray.
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Same. Although I said I'd take Murray as the first guard off the board, Dunn fits better with philly
Idk I'm starting to go back and forth on Dunn and Murray now
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I'm taking Dunn over Murray everytime.
Dunn has a higher ceiling and is already a two way player at the most important position.
What did every one of the last 4 teams in the conference finals have? A star PG and rim protection.
You wanna start from there and fill in the pieces.
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i want to like Jaylen in the pros but...i dont see it man.The Celtics looooooove ******* with Ford.
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You have to think about the type of impact a player like Dunn or Murray would have on the Sixers. The Sixers right now have not one single starting caliber guard on roster. With Murray or Dunn you're getting an All-Star potential guard that would fill the need for many years to come. Simmons is going to be the 4 so that's one front court spot taken up. You would then have Saric, Jerami Grant and Holmes as backups at the 4 and Embiid, Okafor and Noel at the 5. Noel is the guy to keep as the backup plan to Embiid if you're going to keep one of the two because he would fit better with anybody at the 4. Okafor would also have more value and if we could get a young guard on a rookie contract with All-Star potential as well as probably another asset/young player then I don't see what would be the point of not making that move.
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Rob Pelinka flexing his power within the Lakers.
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I'm starting too but it will depend a lot on the situation he is drafted in.
Kid is special off the dribble, like elite handle for a guy his size when he attacks the rim. He needs to become a better finisher but that will come with time as he continues to grow. His shot is bad but it isn't broken, he actually shot pretty good on catch and shoot situations which bodes well for him. He also will have the ability to switch 1-4 which cannot be overstated.
I see him as a very high ceiling guy if he puts it all together but he could also turn into a Harrison Barnes type with better ball handling.
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Moheezy
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I would take Dunn over Murray as well. I mean other than elite shooting, what else does Murray do? Watching scouting videos and game videos of both, I can see Dunn being a special player and Murray being a role player at best. I just don't see All Star Potential in him. and It's not just the games, it's the interviews and their mindset.
It may be just a small sample size, but you can tell Dunn is hungry to prove something while Murray is ecstatic just to be in the NBA.
And what
buc em
said, I get it from the Sixers perspective and that's the exact argument every team will make to low ball the Sixers. They have to look at it from a value perspective of how good Oak is and how he can really be a difference maker for other teams. If they don't do that, they will sell themselves short.
It may be just a small sample size, but you can tell Dunn is hungry to prove something while Murray is ecstatic just to be in the NBA.
And what
buc em
said, I get it from the Sixers perspective and that's the exact argument every team will make to low ball the Sixers. They have to look at it from a value perspective of how good Oak is and how he can really be a difference maker for other teams. If they don't do that, they will sell themselves short.
Moheezy
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Please do it Philly.
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Simmons & Dunn?! 
Man i just hope we can get some shooting else where if thats the case then
Man i just hope we can get some shooting else where if thats the case then
Moheezy
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A Simmons/ Dunn/ Noel lineup is solid defensively and will be great at the pick and roll and open court, but the rest of the team will have to be filled with shooters.
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Embiid will be the one out there with the two of them and he's a very good shooter. Teague is a good shooter too if we get him and Covington is a great shooter if we were to stick with him for the time being. I'd like to upgrade from him and have him come off the bench though.
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Moheezy
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Lots of good stuff in the Chad For interview.
Below are the questions that have been asked in this thread. Full Article here.
Below are the questions that have been asked in this thread. Full Article here.
Q. Can you give me your thoughts on the Sixers? They have the No. 1 pick overall and what they may do, and then the two remaining picks that they have in the first round?
CHAD FORD: I think with the No. 1 pick, they’re going to select Ben Simmons. I think that he has been the frontrunner from day one. I think there was a lot of debate in the Sixers’ front office about Brandon Ingram and even a little bit with Kris Dunn. I think in both cases because they were better fits as far as need goes. I think at the end of the day, they feel like Simmons has the highest upside. He’s the best talent in this draft, and that they’re going to figure out how to make it work. Obviously the Sixers need backcourt help and they need shooting and they’re going to have to address that other ways, be it the draft or free agency or what have you, but when you get the chance to draft a 6’10”, 240-pound point guard with elite court vision and who’s an elite athlete, you don’t pass that up, and you’re watching what LeBron is doing right now in the Playoffs, and there’s just no answer for players that have those elite physical skills that then have guard basketball skills, and I think that’s what makes Simmons so attractive. I think the Sixers will figure out how to play him at point guard, how to put the ball in his hands, because that’s what he is and how he’s comfortable, and who knows, he may end up solving this point guard dilemma for the Sixers just by having Simmons play that.
As far as 24 and 26 go, it’s really hard to know because this draft is so fluid. We’re still trying to figure out the order of the top ten picks and to figure out what’s happening at 24 and 26, but I think there’s a couple things you can look at. One is obviously the Sixers need shooting and there’s going to be a couple players in that range, whether it’s a Malik Beasley out of Florida State or Malachi Richardson out of Syracuse, perhaps even an international player like a Furkan Korkmaz, so that might be a little low for him. Juan Hernangomez, guys that can really shoot the basketball are going to come at a priority. And then I think also maybe a combo guard, someone that can be both a ball handler and play the 1 and the 2, if Dejounte Murray was there out of Washington, I think there’s a lot of interest there, Tyler Ulis out of Kentucky. I think there’s a number of options for them as they get down that far in the draft.
But you’re basically at 24 and 26 looking at players that are rotation players at best. These are not necessarily guys that you would ever think of starting. So I think free agency and trades are going to have to be the way the Sixers go to address those other needs.
Q. I wanted to talk about a couple of the big guys at the top of the draft, Bender and Chriss. How much do you think Bender’s stock is being helped by what Porzingis did last year, and to what do you attribute Chriss’ kind of huge rise in people’s eyes?
FORD: Well, I think or the first question of Bender, yes, Porzingis has helped him. I think Porzingis has opened the door again to the fact that international players can be dominant. I don’t think it’s fair to compare the two other than to say that they’re both tall, they’re both skinny, and they both have some versatility. I think Porzingis is a much better athlete and had more experience playing in the ACB, which I think is the best league outside of Europe. It was easy to watch Porzingis in Spain last year, and see him playing against elite competition in Europe and say, this kid is going to be special.
Bender played for an elite team, as well, Maccabi Tel Aviv, but he didn’t get a lot of minutes. His role was much more limited on Maccabi. He had some injuries and things like that, so it was a lot harder to see his full array of skills. So I think the first thing I’d say is that Bender doesn’t have the same experience that Porzingis had coming in the league. The second thing I’d say is he doesn’t have the same athleticism. While he moves pretty well laterally he’s not as explosive as Porzingis, and he doesn’t really utilize his athleticism the same way that Porzingis does, and I think that’s a knock against Bender. On the upside I think he’s a better shooter right now than Porzingis is. He shot more than 40 percent from three this year, and he’s gotten very good at spotting up in the corners, which is what a lot of NBA teams what their stretch 4s to do.
He’s also a really good rim protector and a good rebounder. He has a great motor. He really hustles out there. I think he’s a perfect fit as a modern NBA power forward at what he does. I’m not sure that he has the same star potential that Porzingis does, but I think in this draft, for a team like the Timberwolves or a team like the Phoenix Suns, he’s a really good fit into what they need and what they’re looking for, and then Chriss, I’m one that questions a little bit how much he’s really risen. Like he’s been in our top 10 for a while, and I think it’s just as far as tiers go, it’s the teams finally — the draft order finally laid out and you started looking at the tops at the top, what does Phoenix need, what did Minnesota need, what did Boston need, Chriss fits that mold a little bit, and when you’re talking about upside, which is big at the top of the draft, how high are the ceilings of these players, you look at a 6’10” player who’s one of the best athletes that I’ve encountered in doing the draft in the last 15 years at that size, both vertically and laterally how explosive he is, he’s 18 years old, he shoots the three, he can handle the ball a little bit, that’s really intriguing. But I also say he has one of the lowest floors of the top picks in the draft. He doesn’t rebound. That’s a huge concern. There’s immaturity there, both in his feel for the game. He was constantly getting into foul trouble, had some trouble sometimes containing his emotions on the court, and just an overall maturity. He’s much more of an 18 year old than some of the other prospects in this draft. He doesn’t quite have that maturity yet. Now, he can get it and if he gets it and hits his ceiling, he should have went No. 3 or No. 4 in this draft. If he doesn’t, he’s going to make a team look bad like Tyrus Thomas made the Bulls look bad several years ago and that’s what teams are trying to weigh right now. How confident are we in his personality that he’s going to be able to become the star that he could be?
Q. Can you run me through the latest on the four Kentucky guys, Murray, Labissiere, Ulis and Poythress and especially any health concerns with Ulis that may have popped up late?
FORD: Yeah, Murray will go 3 to 7. He’s got a pretty narrow range right now. He’s in the mix literally with every single one of those teams with maybe the exception of the Suns. The Celtics are looking at him at three, Wolves are looking at him at 5, Pelicans like him at 6, and Denver even likes him at 7 as a nice backcourt made to Emmanuel Mudiay, and it’s a little bit fluid there because he’s battling guys that are in the same tier. All of them are very different at what they do, and I think it’s going to come down more to team need than it is on necessarily ranking talent. I think as far as talent goes, Murray has the ability to be the best perimeter scorer in this draft. I think he’s going to be a 20-point-per-game scorer in the NBA and one of the best shooters in this draft. Defensively I think the concerns are there.
Labissiere is a little bit harder. I put his range right now at about 7 to 13, so Denver at 7 being the high point, Phoenix at 13 being the low point. I think many of us have projected, and I think it’s very accurate, that the Orlando Magic at 11 look like the most likely spot for him to land. His ability to shoot the ball, to stretch the floor, to protect the rim are elite. The question is does he know how to play basketball? Does he have a feel for the game? Does he have the toughness to play in the NBA? Those are all huge questions that when you get to that portion of the draft, I think because there aren’t a lot of players left that are sure things, that most of those players are just rotation players now, you start to look at Skal and say, look, if Skal hits, he could be Channing Frye, he might even be better than Channing Frye, and if that’s the case, he’s worth gambling, even if it ends up being that he can’t play and I think that’s why I think you’ll see Milwaukee at 10, Orlando at 11, Utah at 12 and Phoenix who now have a second first-round pick in the lottery, just go ahead and roll the dice and gamble. I think he’s got a really safe range there. How he pans out as a player, man, that — I really think anybody that says they know is guessing. I think so much of it is going to have to be about his maturity and his mental development and whether that can click because the skills are there.
As far as Ulis goes, teams are all over the board on him just because of his size. At 5’10”, 150 pounds, there’s not a lot of precedent for guys that size excelling in the NBA. And people point to Isiah Thomas, but Isiah Thomas is a good 30 pounds heavier than Ulis is, and he’s more of a scoring, super athletic stocky guard and there is some precedent for guys like him, Nate Robinson, in that role succeeding in the NBA. Ulis is going to be — he’s going to be a bit of a trend setter there. But he has elite court version. He is probably the best passing point guard in this draft, and I think that intrigues some people.
As far as the hip goes, I’m still trying to collect information on how big of an issue this is.
When you hear those medical reports, it’s difficult to ascertain how serious these sorts of things are down the road because they go through these prospects with such a thorough look that any little thing that has happened in your entire life would show up. If you broke your arm in second grade, it would be there on the report, and there might be a certain level of concern about it, how it healed. If it’s something small like his hips are tight, the muscles are tight, I’d say that’s 80 percent of the NBA, these players struggle with hip tightness, calcification of the hip, things like that.
It could also go the other way. Kevon Looney last year slipped all the way down to 30 last year because there was a concern he would have to have hip surgery, which obviously turned out to be true and he’s had it this off-season, and that’s obviously a more serious concern.
The feedback I’ve gotten from teams is they’re aware that there’s an issue, and there’s varying degrees, depending on doctors, conservative nature of things, on how concerned teams are, so it’s really hard to pick where Ulis goes. But I think he either goes somewhere in the 20s or he ends up going somewhere in the 30s. But I think he’s going to get drafted, and I don’t think it’s going to torpedo his draft stock.
Poythress, I think he’s a possible second-round pick because he’s an elite athlete and I think he can defend multiple positions and I actually hear he shot it pretty well in workouts, and that’s what he projects as a guy coming off the bench, playing great defense and hitting some spot-up threes. If he can just do that I think he has a long career in the NBA. It’s the question about will he be a great three-point shooter that teams are concerned about. He shot it really well his freshman year, kind of went down from there, but I see — I watched him work out several times in LA. I think I see the potential there for him to become that, and you can’t teach his athleticism.
Q. It’s been up and down and all over the board about what the Celtics will do at 3, and then also at 16. Also, the European kind of craze that happened 10, 12 years ago and how that’s cooled off, how do you gauge the European market now in terms of NBA teams? Why did that change so dramatically, and is it improved over the past couple years or is it still kind of down?
FORD: Look, the Celtics control the draft right now. I think we know that Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram are going 1 and 2. If they don’t go 1 and 2, it’ll be because Ingram went 1 and Simmons went 2. So the Celtics, we’ve got this really interesting challenging scenario for them. They would prefer to trade this pick. They would prefer to take it, package it with some of the assets they have and bring in a young veteran who is an All-Star caliber player to really build this team around. That’s been the plan all along. I think the Celtics have been fairly open about it.
The problem is in this draft, I’m not sure that the No. 3 pick, along with the assets that the Celtics have, are going to be enough to get that sort of player, and that’s frustrating for Celtics fans but it is what it is because you’re talking at the Jamal Murray level or the Kris Dunn level or the Marquese Chriss level, as a guy that doesn’t project as a sure-fire All-Star superstar down the road. They don’t project that way. And so teams being willing to give up a superstar for that become a lot harder, and the Celtics have a lot of nice pieces, a lot of interesting pieces, but again, none of them are necessarily guys that other teams really covet.
In fact, I actually think that the thing that the Celtics have, their No. 1 asset, is actually the Brooklyn Nets pick next year in 2017. They have the right to swap that pick. It almost looks like there’s no scenario in which the Nets are going to be good next year, and the 2017 draft looks absolutely loaded with talent, and that might be their best chip.
If they stay at 3, I think it’s safe to say — this is frustrating, but I think it’s safe to say that they’ve narrowed it down to four guys: Jamal Murray, Kris Dunn, Jaylen Brown out of Cal, and Marquese Chriss out of Washington. I think if they go upside, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go Jaylen Brown. He fits a need. He’s a wing who’s very athletic. He did not shoot the ball well at Cal this year, but he shot the ball very well in workouts including the workout that he did with the Celtics, and if you’re saying at No. 3, look, let’s just swing for the guy who could be a superstar down the road and we’ll take a risk, then Brown seems like a pretty good calculated risk. If they want an immediate impact player, then I think that’s Kris Dunn or Jamal Murray. Dunn doesn’t necessarily fit a need. The Celtics have been drafting point guards for a while, but I will say that Dunn is a better point guard prospect than anybody that currently sits on the Celtics’ roster right now, which is appealing, and there’s a defensive ability, especially that’s very, very attractive.
Murray brings shooting, which is something the Celtics could use a lot more of and they need, as well. His defensive abilities, though, are very questionable, and I think that’s the concern there.
So I think what the Celtics decide to do, I don’t think they’ve even decided yet, and I think part of it is trying to figure out trades, figuring out what other deals they might be able to do, what’s going to happen at 16 and 23, and all of that may affect who they end up taking at 3 because the difference between a Kris Dunn, a Jamal Murray, a Marquese Chriss, a Jaylen Brown, it’s so negligible. I think they’re all similar types of prospects. It’s not you take the best player available. They’re in a tier of the best players available, and then you take the guy you think is going to fit the best need, and the Celtics may not know that until draft night, depending on the other sorts of deals that they do.
Q. So you’re saying they’re kind of down on Bender, and what’s been your gauge on the European market and how it’s changed? Obviously it was flourishing in the early 2000s and kind of died down with a lot of draft busts. But how would you gauge the European market now and why did it die and why is it resuscitated?
FORD: I don’t think they’re down on Bender. In fact, Bender will be in Boston on Tuesday for a workout, and the Celtics went to Tel Aviv and saw him there.
I just think that they see him a bit as more of an unknown, and I think that they look at their current roster and who they have, with Kelly Olynyk, for example, and wonder whether that’s the best use of this pick.
I think that if they were drafting today, Bender probably wasn’t in that conversation. I think he’s right on the fringes, on the outside of it. But he is going to come in and have a workout that they’re running and that they can do whatever they want with him, and there’s a possibility, given that they have more limited information on Bender than the other guys that he really comes in and wows them and becomes the No. 3 pick.
I don’t think it’s out of the question.
As far as international players being down, I think what happened was when Pau Gasol and Dirk Nowitzki and several other elite international players, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, all started coming into the league, there was a rush to Europe to just grab those guys with the sort of thinking that they’re more skilled, that the fact that from a very young age they’re allowed to just focus on basketball, that the training and coaching over there encourages positional versatility, big men learn how to play point guard, point guards learn how to play in the post, all those things were leading to these guys being more prepared to play in the league and what have you, but then the NBA made some mistakes which they always did, that they were drafting guys before they’d actually proven that they know how to play. They were drafting guys without experience, guys that were not getting major minutes on their teams, they were drafting players that often had to make huge jumps culturally from one sort of system to the next but then struggled when they got here whether it was just the language or adjusting to the culture or being homesick or whatever. And then you had a string of busts, starting with Darko Milicic that I think really for a while scared teams off, and I really think what they did is they strip mined Europe of all of its young players before they had a chance to really develop and really be able to come over and contribute to the NBA.
I think you’re starting to see that trend reverse now. I think you’re starting to see that teams are being more patient with the international prospects now. I think they’ve understood the mistakes that they’ve made in the past. I think that they’re looking for players like a Porzingis, for example, who is playing at a very high level in Spain. He wasn’t just playing in some international tournament and they took him based off of that, right; there was a lot of great video evidence and scouting evidence that this kid was going to be a good player.
If you can compete in the ACB, you can compete in the NBA, and I think that’s what they saw.
So I think you’re seeing that trend shift, and I think you’re also seeing one other trend which a lot of people don’t think about, which is four of the top five or six international prospects in this draft are represented by the same agent, and that agent actually owns two teams in Europe or is part of an ownership group of those teams in Europe, and they’re actually collecting those players on teams and giving them significant minutes, almost like D-League developmental teams in Europe, and that’s really helpful to the scouts to be able to see them play, to see them play significant minutes, to see them play against other competition. That stuff wasn’t necessarily happening in the past because it was a lot harder for young international players to be able to get minutes.
And now that that trend is starting to develop in Europe, as well, I think it is opening up the door for us to be able to see younger players earlier in Europe and be able to make smarter decisions about who’s ready and who isn’t for the NBA.
Q. The Warriors have had some luck there at the end of the first round into the second round with Festus Ezeli and Draymond Green. I was wondering who you think might be available there at 30 this year that would fit their system?
FORD: Well, the Warriors are. They’ve had a terrific scouting over the years. And look, if Kevon Looney ends being able to solve his hip issues, that was an incredible pick where they got him in the draft last year, and if he can get healthy, he’s another versatile player. We all know what the Warriors like. The Warriors like guys that can play multiple positions, that can pass the ball, that can ideally shoot the ball, that are going to be unselfish in the way that they play, and when you get to 30, it becomes harder to find elite guys like that.
I think a couple things stand out to me later in the draft. One is that because of free agency, center becomes an issue and bigs become an issue for them, and they’re going to need them, and after what Oklahoma City did to them in the Playoffs, I think they’re sort of aware that this is an Achilles heel that they have and they need to be able to address it with teams like Oklahoma City. So you’ve got guys like Damian Jones out of Vanderbilt, you have Onuaku out of Louisville. You have a number of international prospects, whether it’s Ante Zizic or Ivica Zubac out of Bosnia.
You have a number of guys sort of in that range that I think have those sorts of skills. There’s versatility. They can pass. They can do certain things. And they can fit into the Warriors’ system. So I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them make a play actually for a big. It won’t be the starter next year for sure. They’re going to have to address those needs in free agency. But just to have, again, some guys that you can bring off the bench and some guys that can add some toughness to the team, there’s actually some unique prospects down there.
From all that I can gather from the Warriors, they’re focused right now on those types of players.
Q: You mentioned two guards, Valentine is a guy obviously everybody is worried about his knee. Is his knee so bad, is this Granger like because the Pacers were the team that rolled the dice on Granger and ended up striking gold with him a few years back?
FORD: Everybody team has a different take on Valentine’s knee to we’re not drafting him on one extreme, right, and that there’s major concerns to, you know with the right care, or whatever, this — I think this is really manageable. Obviously he is a major, major prospect for the Pacers at 20 if he slides there. I think two months ago before the combine they would say there was no way Valentine was even getting to him, and one of the appeals obviously is Valentine plays right now. He comes in and he is an immediate contributor to the Pacers. I think they’ll seriously consider him at 20, but they along with all those other teams do know about his medical issues, and if he slides, he slides completely because of that, not because they don’t think the talent is there.
Q. You called Wade Baldwin a very polarizing prospect. What is it about him that makes so many teams like him and other teams afraid to pull the trigger?
FORD: Well, the pros are NBA body, NBA athlete, good size for position, and actually even though his shot isn’t the most beautiful shot in the world, he shot the ball really well both years at Vanderbilt, which is a big plus on a big point guard. There’s a lot of Deron Williams in him I think as a player.
On the downside, I think there’s real questions about his feel as a point guard, getting other players involved, making players better. I think there’s a huge question there. I think there’s a lot of questions about what went down at Vanderbilt this year, a team that many people projected as a Final Four team that just struggled and struggled after getting off to a hot start, and most of that had to do with chemistry, and after the season was over, the coaching staff at Vanderbilt and teams during their info, weren’t as complimentary to Baldwin as they could have been about what they thought about coaching him and his leadership on the court, and I think that’s given some teams pause. Some teams look at that and say, look, he’s just a super competitive guy, and he was frustrated that they were losing, and he’s a 20 year old and that’s not a big deal. We want him to be competitive. We want him to call out players and things like that. Other teams, depending on how they sort of value culture and sort of what things they’re looking for look at that and they get a little squeamish about that.
If Baldwin went 12 to the Jazz, that wouldn’t surprise me at all. If he went in the 20s, that wouldn’t surprise me, either.
CHAD FORD: I think with the No. 1 pick, they’re going to select Ben Simmons. I think that he has been the frontrunner from day one. I think there was a lot of debate in the Sixers’ front office about Brandon Ingram and even a little bit with Kris Dunn. I think in both cases because they were better fits as far as need goes. I think at the end of the day, they feel like Simmons has the highest upside. He’s the best talent in this draft, and that they’re going to figure out how to make it work. Obviously the Sixers need backcourt help and they need shooting and they’re going to have to address that other ways, be it the draft or free agency or what have you, but when you get the chance to draft a 6’10”, 240-pound point guard with elite court vision and who’s an elite athlete, you don’t pass that up, and you’re watching what LeBron is doing right now in the Playoffs, and there’s just no answer for players that have those elite physical skills that then have guard basketball skills, and I think that’s what makes Simmons so attractive. I think the Sixers will figure out how to play him at point guard, how to put the ball in his hands, because that’s what he is and how he’s comfortable, and who knows, he may end up solving this point guard dilemma for the Sixers just by having Simmons play that.
As far as 24 and 26 go, it’s really hard to know because this draft is so fluid. We’re still trying to figure out the order of the top ten picks and to figure out what’s happening at 24 and 26, but I think there’s a couple things you can look at. One is obviously the Sixers need shooting and there’s going to be a couple players in that range, whether it’s a Malik Beasley out of Florida State or Malachi Richardson out of Syracuse, perhaps even an international player like a Furkan Korkmaz, so that might be a little low for him. Juan Hernangomez, guys that can really shoot the basketball are going to come at a priority. And then I think also maybe a combo guard, someone that can be both a ball handler and play the 1 and the 2, if Dejounte Murray was there out of Washington, I think there’s a lot of interest there, Tyler Ulis out of Kentucky. I think there’s a number of options for them as they get down that far in the draft.
But you’re basically at 24 and 26 looking at players that are rotation players at best. These are not necessarily guys that you would ever think of starting. So I think free agency and trades are going to have to be the way the Sixers go to address those other needs.
Q. I wanted to talk about a couple of the big guys at the top of the draft, Bender and Chriss. How much do you think Bender’s stock is being helped by what Porzingis did last year, and to what do you attribute Chriss’ kind of huge rise in people’s eyes?
FORD: Well, I think or the first question of Bender, yes, Porzingis has helped him. I think Porzingis has opened the door again to the fact that international players can be dominant. I don’t think it’s fair to compare the two other than to say that they’re both tall, they’re both skinny, and they both have some versatility. I think Porzingis is a much better athlete and had more experience playing in the ACB, which I think is the best league outside of Europe. It was easy to watch Porzingis in Spain last year, and see him playing against elite competition in Europe and say, this kid is going to be special.
Bender played for an elite team, as well, Maccabi Tel Aviv, but he didn’t get a lot of minutes. His role was much more limited on Maccabi. He had some injuries and things like that, so it was a lot harder to see his full array of skills. So I think the first thing I’d say is that Bender doesn’t have the same experience that Porzingis had coming in the league. The second thing I’d say is he doesn’t have the same athleticism. While he moves pretty well laterally he’s not as explosive as Porzingis, and he doesn’t really utilize his athleticism the same way that Porzingis does, and I think that’s a knock against Bender. On the upside I think he’s a better shooter right now than Porzingis is. He shot more than 40 percent from three this year, and he’s gotten very good at spotting up in the corners, which is what a lot of NBA teams what their stretch 4s to do.
He’s also a really good rim protector and a good rebounder. He has a great motor. He really hustles out there. I think he’s a perfect fit as a modern NBA power forward at what he does. I’m not sure that he has the same star potential that Porzingis does, but I think in this draft, for a team like the Timberwolves or a team like the Phoenix Suns, he’s a really good fit into what they need and what they’re looking for, and then Chriss, I’m one that questions a little bit how much he’s really risen. Like he’s been in our top 10 for a while, and I think it’s just as far as tiers go, it’s the teams finally — the draft order finally laid out and you started looking at the tops at the top, what does Phoenix need, what did Minnesota need, what did Boston need, Chriss fits that mold a little bit, and when you’re talking about upside, which is big at the top of the draft, how high are the ceilings of these players, you look at a 6’10” player who’s one of the best athletes that I’ve encountered in doing the draft in the last 15 years at that size, both vertically and laterally how explosive he is, he’s 18 years old, he shoots the three, he can handle the ball a little bit, that’s really intriguing. But I also say he has one of the lowest floors of the top picks in the draft. He doesn’t rebound. That’s a huge concern. There’s immaturity there, both in his feel for the game. He was constantly getting into foul trouble, had some trouble sometimes containing his emotions on the court, and just an overall maturity. He’s much more of an 18 year old than some of the other prospects in this draft. He doesn’t quite have that maturity yet. Now, he can get it and if he gets it and hits his ceiling, he should have went No. 3 or No. 4 in this draft. If he doesn’t, he’s going to make a team look bad like Tyrus Thomas made the Bulls look bad several years ago and that’s what teams are trying to weigh right now. How confident are we in his personality that he’s going to be able to become the star that he could be?
Q. Can you run me through the latest on the four Kentucky guys, Murray, Labissiere, Ulis and Poythress and especially any health concerns with Ulis that may have popped up late?
FORD: Yeah, Murray will go 3 to 7. He’s got a pretty narrow range right now. He’s in the mix literally with every single one of those teams with maybe the exception of the Suns. The Celtics are looking at him at three, Wolves are looking at him at 5, Pelicans like him at 6, and Denver even likes him at 7 as a nice backcourt made to Emmanuel Mudiay, and it’s a little bit fluid there because he’s battling guys that are in the same tier. All of them are very different at what they do, and I think it’s going to come down more to team need than it is on necessarily ranking talent. I think as far as talent goes, Murray has the ability to be the best perimeter scorer in this draft. I think he’s going to be a 20-point-per-game scorer in the NBA and one of the best shooters in this draft. Defensively I think the concerns are there.
Labissiere is a little bit harder. I put his range right now at about 7 to 13, so Denver at 7 being the high point, Phoenix at 13 being the low point. I think many of us have projected, and I think it’s very accurate, that the Orlando Magic at 11 look like the most likely spot for him to land. His ability to shoot the ball, to stretch the floor, to protect the rim are elite. The question is does he know how to play basketball? Does he have a feel for the game? Does he have the toughness to play in the NBA? Those are all huge questions that when you get to that portion of the draft, I think because there aren’t a lot of players left that are sure things, that most of those players are just rotation players now, you start to look at Skal and say, look, if Skal hits, he could be Channing Frye, he might even be better than Channing Frye, and if that’s the case, he’s worth gambling, even if it ends up being that he can’t play and I think that’s why I think you’ll see Milwaukee at 10, Orlando at 11, Utah at 12 and Phoenix who now have a second first-round pick in the lottery, just go ahead and roll the dice and gamble. I think he’s got a really safe range there. How he pans out as a player, man, that — I really think anybody that says they know is guessing. I think so much of it is going to have to be about his maturity and his mental development and whether that can click because the skills are there.
As far as Ulis goes, teams are all over the board on him just because of his size. At 5’10”, 150 pounds, there’s not a lot of precedent for guys that size excelling in the NBA. And people point to Isiah Thomas, but Isiah Thomas is a good 30 pounds heavier than Ulis is, and he’s more of a scoring, super athletic stocky guard and there is some precedent for guys like him, Nate Robinson, in that role succeeding in the NBA. Ulis is going to be — he’s going to be a bit of a trend setter there. But he has elite court version. He is probably the best passing point guard in this draft, and I think that intrigues some people.
As far as the hip goes, I’m still trying to collect information on how big of an issue this is.
When you hear those medical reports, it’s difficult to ascertain how serious these sorts of things are down the road because they go through these prospects with such a thorough look that any little thing that has happened in your entire life would show up. If you broke your arm in second grade, it would be there on the report, and there might be a certain level of concern about it, how it healed. If it’s something small like his hips are tight, the muscles are tight, I’d say that’s 80 percent of the NBA, these players struggle with hip tightness, calcification of the hip, things like that.
It could also go the other way. Kevon Looney last year slipped all the way down to 30 last year because there was a concern he would have to have hip surgery, which obviously turned out to be true and he’s had it this off-season, and that’s obviously a more serious concern.
The feedback I’ve gotten from teams is they’re aware that there’s an issue, and there’s varying degrees, depending on doctors, conservative nature of things, on how concerned teams are, so it’s really hard to pick where Ulis goes. But I think he either goes somewhere in the 20s or he ends up going somewhere in the 30s. But I think he’s going to get drafted, and I don’t think it’s going to torpedo his draft stock.
Poythress, I think he’s a possible second-round pick because he’s an elite athlete and I think he can defend multiple positions and I actually hear he shot it pretty well in workouts, and that’s what he projects as a guy coming off the bench, playing great defense and hitting some spot-up threes. If he can just do that I think he has a long career in the NBA. It’s the question about will he be a great three-point shooter that teams are concerned about. He shot it really well his freshman year, kind of went down from there, but I see — I watched him work out several times in LA. I think I see the potential there for him to become that, and you can’t teach his athleticism.
Q. It’s been up and down and all over the board about what the Celtics will do at 3, and then also at 16. Also, the European kind of craze that happened 10, 12 years ago and how that’s cooled off, how do you gauge the European market now in terms of NBA teams? Why did that change so dramatically, and is it improved over the past couple years or is it still kind of down?
FORD: Look, the Celtics control the draft right now. I think we know that Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram are going 1 and 2. If they don’t go 1 and 2, it’ll be because Ingram went 1 and Simmons went 2. So the Celtics, we’ve got this really interesting challenging scenario for them. They would prefer to trade this pick. They would prefer to take it, package it with some of the assets they have and bring in a young veteran who is an All-Star caliber player to really build this team around. That’s been the plan all along. I think the Celtics have been fairly open about it.
The problem is in this draft, I’m not sure that the No. 3 pick, along with the assets that the Celtics have, are going to be enough to get that sort of player, and that’s frustrating for Celtics fans but it is what it is because you’re talking at the Jamal Murray level or the Kris Dunn level or the Marquese Chriss level, as a guy that doesn’t project as a sure-fire All-Star superstar down the road. They don’t project that way. And so teams being willing to give up a superstar for that become a lot harder, and the Celtics have a lot of nice pieces, a lot of interesting pieces, but again, none of them are necessarily guys that other teams really covet.
In fact, I actually think that the thing that the Celtics have, their No. 1 asset, is actually the Brooklyn Nets pick next year in 2017. They have the right to swap that pick. It almost looks like there’s no scenario in which the Nets are going to be good next year, and the 2017 draft looks absolutely loaded with talent, and that might be their best chip.
If they stay at 3, I think it’s safe to say — this is frustrating, but I think it’s safe to say that they’ve narrowed it down to four guys: Jamal Murray, Kris Dunn, Jaylen Brown out of Cal, and Marquese Chriss out of Washington. I think if they go upside, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go Jaylen Brown. He fits a need. He’s a wing who’s very athletic. He did not shoot the ball well at Cal this year, but he shot the ball very well in workouts including the workout that he did with the Celtics, and if you’re saying at No. 3, look, let’s just swing for the guy who could be a superstar down the road and we’ll take a risk, then Brown seems like a pretty good calculated risk. If they want an immediate impact player, then I think that’s Kris Dunn or Jamal Murray. Dunn doesn’t necessarily fit a need. The Celtics have been drafting point guards for a while, but I will say that Dunn is a better point guard prospect than anybody that currently sits on the Celtics’ roster right now, which is appealing, and there’s a defensive ability, especially that’s very, very attractive.
Murray brings shooting, which is something the Celtics could use a lot more of and they need, as well. His defensive abilities, though, are very questionable, and I think that’s the concern there.
So I think what the Celtics decide to do, I don’t think they’ve even decided yet, and I think part of it is trying to figure out trades, figuring out what other deals they might be able to do, what’s going to happen at 16 and 23, and all of that may affect who they end up taking at 3 because the difference between a Kris Dunn, a Jamal Murray, a Marquese Chriss, a Jaylen Brown, it’s so negligible. I think they’re all similar types of prospects. It’s not you take the best player available. They’re in a tier of the best players available, and then you take the guy you think is going to fit the best need, and the Celtics may not know that until draft night, depending on the other sorts of deals that they do.
Q. So you’re saying they’re kind of down on Bender, and what’s been your gauge on the European market and how it’s changed? Obviously it was flourishing in the early 2000s and kind of died down with a lot of draft busts. But how would you gauge the European market now and why did it die and why is it resuscitated?
FORD: I don’t think they’re down on Bender. In fact, Bender will be in Boston on Tuesday for a workout, and the Celtics went to Tel Aviv and saw him there.
I just think that they see him a bit as more of an unknown, and I think that they look at their current roster and who they have, with Kelly Olynyk, for example, and wonder whether that’s the best use of this pick.
I think that if they were drafting today, Bender probably wasn’t in that conversation. I think he’s right on the fringes, on the outside of it. But he is going to come in and have a workout that they’re running and that they can do whatever they want with him, and there’s a possibility, given that they have more limited information on Bender than the other guys that he really comes in and wows them and becomes the No. 3 pick.
I don’t think it’s out of the question.
As far as international players being down, I think what happened was when Pau Gasol and Dirk Nowitzki and several other elite international players, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, all started coming into the league, there was a rush to Europe to just grab those guys with the sort of thinking that they’re more skilled, that the fact that from a very young age they’re allowed to just focus on basketball, that the training and coaching over there encourages positional versatility, big men learn how to play point guard, point guards learn how to play in the post, all those things were leading to these guys being more prepared to play in the league and what have you, but then the NBA made some mistakes which they always did, that they were drafting guys before they’d actually proven that they know how to play. They were drafting guys without experience, guys that were not getting major minutes on their teams, they were drafting players that often had to make huge jumps culturally from one sort of system to the next but then struggled when they got here whether it was just the language or adjusting to the culture or being homesick or whatever. And then you had a string of busts, starting with Darko Milicic that I think really for a while scared teams off, and I really think what they did is they strip mined Europe of all of its young players before they had a chance to really develop and really be able to come over and contribute to the NBA.
I think you’re starting to see that trend reverse now. I think you’re starting to see that teams are being more patient with the international prospects now. I think they’ve understood the mistakes that they’ve made in the past. I think that they’re looking for players like a Porzingis, for example, who is playing at a very high level in Spain. He wasn’t just playing in some international tournament and they took him based off of that, right; there was a lot of great video evidence and scouting evidence that this kid was going to be a good player.
If you can compete in the ACB, you can compete in the NBA, and I think that’s what they saw.
So I think you’re seeing that trend shift, and I think you’re also seeing one other trend which a lot of people don’t think about, which is four of the top five or six international prospects in this draft are represented by the same agent, and that agent actually owns two teams in Europe or is part of an ownership group of those teams in Europe, and they’re actually collecting those players on teams and giving them significant minutes, almost like D-League developmental teams in Europe, and that’s really helpful to the scouts to be able to see them play, to see them play significant minutes, to see them play against other competition. That stuff wasn’t necessarily happening in the past because it was a lot harder for young international players to be able to get minutes.
And now that that trend is starting to develop in Europe, as well, I think it is opening up the door for us to be able to see younger players earlier in Europe and be able to make smarter decisions about who’s ready and who isn’t for the NBA.
Q. The Warriors have had some luck there at the end of the first round into the second round with Festus Ezeli and Draymond Green. I was wondering who you think might be available there at 30 this year that would fit their system?
FORD: Well, the Warriors are. They’ve had a terrific scouting over the years. And look, if Kevon Looney ends being able to solve his hip issues, that was an incredible pick where they got him in the draft last year, and if he can get healthy, he’s another versatile player. We all know what the Warriors like. The Warriors like guys that can play multiple positions, that can pass the ball, that can ideally shoot the ball, that are going to be unselfish in the way that they play, and when you get to 30, it becomes harder to find elite guys like that.
I think a couple things stand out to me later in the draft. One is that because of free agency, center becomes an issue and bigs become an issue for them, and they’re going to need them, and after what Oklahoma City did to them in the Playoffs, I think they’re sort of aware that this is an Achilles heel that they have and they need to be able to address it with teams like Oklahoma City. So you’ve got guys like Damian Jones out of Vanderbilt, you have Onuaku out of Louisville. You have a number of international prospects, whether it’s Ante Zizic or Ivica Zubac out of Bosnia.
You have a number of guys sort of in that range that I think have those sorts of skills. There’s versatility. They can pass. They can do certain things. And they can fit into the Warriors’ system. So I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them make a play actually for a big. It won’t be the starter next year for sure. They’re going to have to address those needs in free agency. But just to have, again, some guys that you can bring off the bench and some guys that can add some toughness to the team, there’s actually some unique prospects down there.
From all that I can gather from the Warriors, they’re focused right now on those types of players.
Q: You mentioned two guards, Valentine is a guy obviously everybody is worried about his knee. Is his knee so bad, is this Granger like because the Pacers were the team that rolled the dice on Granger and ended up striking gold with him a few years back?
FORD: Everybody team has a different take on Valentine’s knee to we’re not drafting him on one extreme, right, and that there’s major concerns to, you know with the right care, or whatever, this — I think this is really manageable. Obviously he is a major, major prospect for the Pacers at 20 if he slides there. I think two months ago before the combine they would say there was no way Valentine was even getting to him, and one of the appeals obviously is Valentine plays right now. He comes in and he is an immediate contributor to the Pacers. I think they’ll seriously consider him at 20, but they along with all those other teams do know about his medical issues, and if he slides, he slides completely because of that, not because they don’t think the talent is there.
Q. You called Wade Baldwin a very polarizing prospect. What is it about him that makes so many teams like him and other teams afraid to pull the trigger?
FORD: Well, the pros are NBA body, NBA athlete, good size for position, and actually even though his shot isn’t the most beautiful shot in the world, he shot the ball really well both years at Vanderbilt, which is a big plus on a big point guard. There’s a lot of Deron Williams in him I think as a player.
On the downside, I think there’s real questions about his feel as a point guard, getting other players involved, making players better. I think there’s a huge question there. I think there’s a lot of questions about what went down at Vanderbilt this year, a team that many people projected as a Final Four team that just struggled and struggled after getting off to a hot start, and most of that had to do with chemistry, and after the season was over, the coaching staff at Vanderbilt and teams during their info, weren’t as complimentary to Baldwin as they could have been about what they thought about coaching him and his leadership on the court, and I think that’s given some teams pause. Some teams look at that and say, look, he’s just a super competitive guy, and he was frustrated that they were losing, and he’s a 20 year old and that’s not a big deal. We want him to be competitive. We want him to call out players and things like that. Other teams, depending on how they sort of value culture and sort of what things they’re looking for look at that and they get a little squeamish about that.
If Baldwin went 12 to the Jazz, that wouldn’t surprise me at all. If he went in the 20s, that wouldn’t surprise me, either.
Moheezy
formerly mizzoe33
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See if we get Dunn for Oak, we will not be trading for Teague. It's either or. I've seen Embiid workout live and he's been shooting threes for 10/ 15 minutes straight, but I need to see him prove it in the game.
Either way, it's impossible to predict the sixers lineup as I am sure it will be very different come October. Let's assume Boston and Philly trade goes through. The lineup MIGHT look like this:
PG: Dunn, Baldwin/ Malik/ Ulis (whomever they pick late first round)
SG: Castello, Smart/ Bradley (whomever is included in the Boston trade)
SF: Covington
PF: Simmons/ Saric
C: Noel/ Embiid
This is all assuming we don't sign anybody in the offseason. Embiid, Saric, Covington and Castello should all be able to stretch the floor, even Bradley has become a respectable shooter.
Again, this is all dependent on a million assumptions.
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Ainge isn't desperate enough to include Bradley or Smart for Okafor, I think.
CrownRoyalDaddy
formerly tdoggy57
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I definitely expect Philly to overpay a free agent
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No chance that either of them would be involved in a trade for Okafor. The only way one of them will be packaged with the pick is if it's for a guy like Jimmy Butler. They may shop Smart/Bradley individually for a forward though.
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With the amount of cap they have, doesn't even matter.
They need to overpay somebody so they can at least be a player in 2017 FA.
